Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:35 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
A broad area of low pressure is over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, moving westward at 10-15 mph. Visible satellite loops show scattered heavy thunderstorms associated with the low. A surface circulation is also evident near the Guatemala/Mexico border. Wind shear is moderate, in the 10-15 knot range.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of the Western Caribbean. Image credit: NOAA.
The disturbance moving westward, and will emerge over the Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche on Monday. The system may be able to organize into a tropical depression once it emerges into the Gulf. However, the system will not have much time over water before it makes landfall again on the Mexican coast in the southwestern Bay of Campeche. NHC is currently giving the system a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a semi-permanent band of heavy thunderstorms off the coast of Africa, is unusually active for this time of year. The GFS model continues to predict that a tropical depression will spin up out of the ITCZ late this week. None of the other reliable models go along with this, however, and it is unusual to get a storm developing in this region this late in the season.
Hurricane Ike relief efforts
The need is still great for relief in the regions hard-hit by Hurricane Ike. Please consider donating to the relief effort started by wunderground members Patrap, Presslord, and Stormjunkie. Contributions to this portlight.org charity fund are fully tax-deductible, and will go to provide relief supplies for those smaller communities typically bypassed by the traditional relief efforts. More details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.
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