A quiet Sunday in the tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:35 PM GMT on October 05, 2008

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A broad area of low pressure is over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, moving westward at 10-15 mph. Visible satellite loops show scattered heavy thunderstorms associated with the low. A surface circulation is also evident near the Guatemala/Mexico border. Wind shear is moderate, in the 10-15 knot range.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of the Western Caribbean. Image credit: NOAA.

The disturbance moving westward, and will emerge over the Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche on Monday. The system may be able to organize into a tropical depression once it emerges into the Gulf. However, the system will not have much time over water before it makes landfall again on the Mexican coast in the southwestern Bay of Campeche. NHC is currently giving the system a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a semi-permanent band of heavy thunderstorms off the coast of Africa, is unusually active for this time of year. The GFS model continues to predict that a tropical depression will spin up out of the ITCZ late this week. None of the other reliable models go along with this, however, and it is unusual to get a storm developing in this region this late in the season.


Hurricane Ike relief efforts
The need is still great for relief in the regions hard-hit by Hurricane Ike. Please consider donating to the relief effort started by wunderground members Patrap, Presslord, and Stormjunkie. Contributions to this portlight.org charity fund are fully tax-deductible, and will go to provide relief supplies for those smaller communities typically bypassed by the traditional relief efforts. More details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters

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Viewing: 528 - 478

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528. JRRP
2:45 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
looks like ..S.. or ..5..
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6213
527. homelesswanderer
2:22 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Quoting PcolaDan:


I'm not really a fan of Government intervention, but this is getting out of hand I think. Someone needs to develop a standard for insurance definitions and terms that is binding across the country. This happens every hurricane now and it's getting old real fast.
I agree completely.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
526. Orcasystems
2:17 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
Who thinks 96L will become TD13 at 8am?


can you STOP asking Dumb ?s Please and this follow are commets and see what evere one is saying you are turning out too be one pine in the butt this is one thing why i have you up on my Ignore and i am all so thinking of asking the Admin of re moveing the Quote on for dr m blog or the Ignore or make the Quote to where you are not seeing or Quoteing some one that you may have on Ignore be come its not far too them or me too have too see some one that you may have on Ignor now i dont care if they ban me for this but you no what i wanted too say this for a long time so here i said it and am vary sorry if am being rude wish i think i am


A: No such thing as a dumb question
B: There is nothing wrong with the question asked
C: No one knows who has who on ignore, so people will get quoted who may be on your ignore list.. so get used to it
D: Stop and engage your mind before your fingers, then maybe we can understand what you typed.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
525. PcolaDan
2:17 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Quoting homelesswanderer:
I'm sorry to hear about your troubles with your insurance company. My parents still havent been able to get their adjuster to come look at their roof damage. A co-worker of my husbands lost everything to the storm surge. They had flood insurance but the insurance company told them it wasnt a flood. It was surge. They didnt cover salt water damage.For crying out loud! Unfortnately there are probably more stories like that. I'm sorry about your dads house. While we were lucky during Ike, during Rita our home went the same way his did. Hang in there. I hope everything works out for you.


I'm not really a fan of Government intervention, but this is getting out of hand I think. Someone needs to develop a standard for insurance definitions and terms that is binding across the country. This happens every hurricane now and it's getting old real fast.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
524. Tazmanian
2:15 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
512. surfmom 7:06 AM PDT on October 06, 2008
Yes on the Rain Orca, I'd certainly like a good soaking -w/a dash of thunder! Especially today, no Barnwork...just housework

MORNING TAZ!!! sifted back through the blog and found that environmental piece describing the amount of oil spilled into the Gulf ---I appreciated that information --busy e-mailing it out to friends near and far!~! : )

your welcom
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
523. IKE
2:14 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
NEW BLOG!

NYSE under 10 thousand.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
522. stormpetrol
2:14 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
96L will probably have a brief chance to become a TS due to its small size IMO
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
521. tropics21
2:13 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
good morning everyone
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 263
520. PcolaDan
2:12 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Not hurricane related, but check out this video about a lightning strike. Took place in New York.

(Florida people should see this.)

Link
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
518. surfmom
2:11 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Public Adjuster - new vocab word for me.... have to pass this along to the spouse--- hopefully this information will just stay in the "files"
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
517. melwerle
2:10 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
500.

Uptex...my hubby is an insurance adjuster - call the company to tell them exactly what you said here...they are SUPPOSED to get up on the roof if there is suspect roof damage...he was being too lazy to get up there. No way you can tell if there is no roof damage if you don't actually GO UP THERE.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
516. conchygirl
2:08 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Quoting presslord:
uptcoasttx....I'm real fuzzy on the dtails of this....someone on here smarter than me can explain...but, as I understand it.....there's something called a "Public Adjuster" or some such...who is not married to the insurance companies....and I think you can retain them to get an unbiased opinion....
Yes, and I understand they do a great job.
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
515. TampaSpin
2:08 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Gotta run BBL....everyone have a good day.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
514. TampaSpin
2:07 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Quoting StormW:
504. Orcasystems 9:45 AM EDT on October 06, 2008
StormW, what do you think of the system they show starting in the Caribbean, and then taking the long slow way to Texas.. will the shear actually have calmed down enough for that to happen?

CMC ... Caribbean to BOC to Texas (Hour 36 - 144)


I'll have to recheck...was looking at the shear forecast earlier...like to see the next run...but shear was supposed to relax somewhat in the GOMEX, but not until about 168 hrs out. In fact, that area from W Caribbean, to BOC is forecast to be marginal at best right now.


Yep you are very correct. Shear does decrease some in 96hours but, not alot.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
513. presslord
2:06 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
uptcoasttx....I'm real fuzzy on the dtails of this....someone on here smarter than me can explain...but, as I understand it.....there's something called a "Public Adjuster" or some such...who is not married to the insurance companies....and I think you can retain them to get an unbiased opinion....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
512. surfmom
2:06 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Yes on the Rain Orca, I'd certainly like a good soaking -w/a dash of thunder! Especially today, no Barnwork...just housework

MORNING TAZ!!! sifted back through the blog and found that environmental piece describing the amount of oil spilled into the Gulf ---I appreciated that information --busy e-mailing it out to friends near and far!~! : )
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
510. homelesswanderer
2:04 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Quoting uptxcoast:
Finally finished the fencing yesterday...

We have all had our Insurance Adjusters come around and have come to the conclusions that most are useless. While they did get a check to my Dad pretty quick (His house was basically destroyed by a 100 year old oak)my next door neighbor's insurance adjuster told him they could just "Strap the Chimney back to the roof". The home owners association would love that...

My Adjuster, from out of state, just complained about a place to park his trailer. Did not get on roof and just gave a glance around the property telling us we did not meet the deductible.

They did the same for Rita, but this time I am going to fight. My roof is full of gouges from tree limbs. I have the leaks plugged up for now but sheesh, this is the kind of treatment I get for paying my premiums on time.
I'm sorry to hear about your troubles with your insurance company. My parents still havent been able to get their adjuster to come look at their roof damage. A co-worker of my husbands lost everything to the storm surge. They had flood insurance but the insurance company told them it wasnt a flood. It was surge. They didnt cover salt water damage.For crying out loud! Unfortnately there are probably more stories like that. I'm sorry about your dads house. While we were lucky during Ike, during Rita our home went the same way his did. Hang in there. I hope everything works out for you.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
509. Tazmanian
2:02 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
Who thinks 96L will become TD13 at 8am?


can you STOP asking Dumb ?s Please and this follow are commets and see what evere one is saying you are turning out too be one pine in the butt this is one thing why i have you up on my Ignore and i am all so thinking of asking the Admin of re moveing the Quote on for dr m blog or the Ignore or make the Quote to where you are not seeing or Quoteing some one that you may have on Ignore be come its not far too them or me too have too see some one that you may have on Ignor now i dont care if they ban me for this but you no what i wanted too say this for a long time so here i said it and am vary sorry if am being rude wish i think i am
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
508. Orcasystems
1:58 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Quoting lawntonlookers:


What are you actually looking at on this? The developoing low at 120 hours?


Yes, all three of them
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
507. Orcasystems
1:56 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Quoting surfmom:
uptxcoast -- perhaps that's why Presslord likes to have a lawyer around when the insurance adjusters are reviewing the property.......just a thought

Hey Orca - Looks like I'm in the kayak this week


Yup.. hey maybe you will get lucky and get some rain :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
506. surfmom
1:53 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
uptxcoast -- perhaps that's why Presslord likes to have a lawyer around when the insurance adjusters are reviewing the property.......just a thought

Hey Orca - Looks like I'm in the kayak this week
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
505. conchygirl
1:49 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Morning All: We are looking pretty good but appears Norbert could be troublesome for someone.
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
504. Orcasystems
1:45 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
StormW, what do you think of the system they show starting in the Caribbean, and then taking the long slow way to Texas.. will the shear actually have calmed down enough for that to happen?

CMC ... Caribbean to BOC to Texas (Hour 36 - 144)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
503. Orcasystems
1:43 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
New Invest ... 96L
Present Satellite picture ... 96L
Area of Interest ... Eastern Caribbean
Present Satellite picture Caribbean Sea
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean/GOM
Present Satellite picture Atlantic Train
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
CMC ... Caribbean & BOC flaring up (Hour 36)
CMC ... Caribbean - BOC - Texas (Hour 36 - 144)
CMC ... BOC (Hour 156)
CMC ... Atlantic (Hour 216)
CMC ... Caribbean (Hour 240)
CMC 00Z..
Hurricane IKE Pictures in Power Point Format ... From TropicTraveler (5MB)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
502. Orcasystems
1:43 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
Good morning Orca!


Morning :) any Monday I wake up and have the day off is a good morning :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
501. SpicyAngel1072
1:39 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Good morning Orca!
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
500. uptxcoast
1:38 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Finally finished the fencing yesterday...

We have all had our Insurance Adjusters come around and have come to the conclusions that most are useless. While they did get a check to my Dad pretty quick (His house was basically destroyed by a 100 year old oak)my next door neighbor's insurance adjuster told him they could just "Strap the Chimney back to the roof". The home owners association would love that...

My Adjuster, from out of state, just complained about a place to park his trailer. Did not get on roof and just gave a glance around the property telling us we did not meet the deductible.

They did the same for Rita, but this time I am going to fight. My roof is full of gouges from tree limbs. I have the leaks plugged up for now but sheesh, this is the kind of treatment I get for paying my premiums on time.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 235
499. Orcasystems
1:35 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Good morning all :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
498. TampaSpin
1:35 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
496. RobDaHood 9:32 AM EDT on October 06, 2008
Tampa,

Read you update. Couldn't have said it better myself. Good job.

Okay, gotta run, should be a fairly easy day so I'll check in this pm

Spicy, don't work too hard - LOL (just love mondays myself)


Thanks and have a great week.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
497. IKE
1:32 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Stock market down near 300 points already!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
496. RobDaHood
1:32 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Tampa,

Read you update. Couldn't have said it better myself. Good job.

Okay, gotta run, should be a fairly easy day so I'll check in this pm

Spicy, don't work too hard - LOL (just love mondays myself)

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33571
495. surfmom
1:21 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Thanks Tampa!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
494. surfmom
1:21 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Not wishing for any storm action either. Just got to look at the weather and enjoy what she hands out.... which here in SW Florida still leaves plenty of fun outside To Do's - Actually a great time of the year to use the kayaks, great fishing and the water clarity for diving/spearfishing is real good too!

Like MissNadia -- I got plenty of do-do to wade through - be in & out through the day
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
493. Beachfoxx
1:20 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Morning all..

BOC still trying to find some organization? Bah waa haa! Doesn't look too threatening... But geez, bet they are tired of all the rain down that way.

Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29385
492. SpicyAngel1072
1:17 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Good morning Rob :)
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
491. RobDaHood
1:16 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Thank you Tampa!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33571
490. TampaSpin
1:15 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
I just updated my Blog if anyone would like to review.....thanks!

TampaSpins Tropical Update Link
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
489. RobDaHood
1:13 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Morning, Surfmom, Spicy, MissNadia, Storm, and any of my other friends, who may be lurking!

Surfmom, I feel for you, but don't think that BOC thing is gonna pan out for you. The way patterns are shaping up, I think your best chance for wave action may be something crossing the carib, throught the Yucatan, across boc to mexico a little later on.

Sorry but can't wish a storm on anyone right now to make some waves :o) Maybe, we all pitch in and send you somewhere else to catch a wave or two. LOL Just not here.

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 101 Comments: 33571
487. SpicyAngel1072
1:06 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
ok good I'll keep checking. At work...

I'm sorry to hear about your son. My middle son has bad asthma as well. I understand.
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
485. MissNadia
1:03 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Good Morning Mom
I am knee deep in do-do and have to take care of things. Out!
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3003
484. SpicyAngel1072
12:58 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Hope all is well with you storm. Did I miss your forecast? Hope not :)
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
482. surfmom
12:54 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Lalaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa (I think I hear the fat lady warming up her vocal cords in the tunnel somewhere_
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
481. surfmom
12:51 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Quoting MissNadia:

You know, I think the feds already have a rule like that in place. I seem to remember it being 50%..... been in place for years and doesn't work!


I watched a friend of mine re-do her WOOD floors in a crap cottage 3x times and get $ everytime --really ticks me off
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
480. SpicyAngel1072
12:49 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
good morning all!

Florida is looking safe...from what I am reading from all of you..

Feel free to correct me if I am wrong..

Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
479. MissNadia
12:48 PM GMT on October 06, 2008
Quoting bwt1982:


Not to concerned with the Atlantic. It's late in the season for
something way out there, plus if anything did devolop it would just
recurve back out to nowhere. No worries here in S. Fla!!!! :)

Bite your tongue...it ain't over until the fat lady sings!
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3003

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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