Western Caribbean disturbance moving over the Yucatan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:01 PM GMT on October 04, 2008

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Heavy thunderstorm activity in association with a broad area of low pressure over the Western Caribbean remains disorganized today. Visible satellite loops show a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, with no sign of organization or a surface circulation. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a surface circulation, either. Wind shear is moderate, in the 10-15 knot range.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of the Western Caribbean. Image credit: NOAA.

The disturbance is drifting westward, and should move over northern Guatemala, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula today before it can develop into a tropical depression. These areas can expect heavy rains of 2-4 inches today through Sunday from the disturbance. NHC is currently giving it a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression.

Elsewhere in the tropics, the NOGAPS model is forecasting the possible formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Nicaragua on Thursday, while the GFS model thinks something might develop off the coast of Africa Thursday. It's a little late to be getting an African storms developing, so I doubt the GFS forecast. However, we'll need to watch the Western Caribbean over the coming week.

Links to follow
Wundermap for the Western Caribbean


Hurricane Ike relief efforts
When a major hurricane hits, relief efforts are always confused and don't reach many areas with great needs. Thus, a group of wunderground bloggers mobilized the day after Ike hit to help out. Their goal was to provide immediate help where traditional aid efforts were coming short, with a focus on providing equipment for people with disabilities and a full spectrum of relief supplies to smaller communities often neglected. Traditional, professional relief efforts are weighed down by bureaucracy and cannot respond as nimbly as smaller, grass-roots relief efforts can. I believe our dollars have been well-spent by the relief effort organized by our own Patrap, Presslord, and Stormjunkie, under the banner of Portlight Strategies, Inc. I encourage you to donate to the cause, or the traditional charity organization of your choice.

Here's a breakdown of how much money has been donated, and how much spent. Figures are rounded to the nearest $100. More details can be found on StormJunkie's blog:

Total money donated: $31,200 (about 400 donors)
Total money spent so far: $10,350
Total money in the portlight.org checking account: $21,000
--$9,000 in escrow for legal defense
--$12,000 available for immediate relief operations
Total money in the original Paypal account set up by Patrap: $1000
Total money in the new Paypal account set up by Presslord: $250

Here's how the $10350 has been spent:

WalMart - $2000 - supplies
Costco - $1000 - supplies
Patrick Pearson (Patrap) - $1000 (fuel, rental costs for a truck)
Truck from Charleston - $1500 - fuel
Florida supply truck - $2100 - escort, credentialing, fuel, vehicle repair, lodging
Crew food,lodging, transport home - $1000
Truck rental, gas for truck from Atlanta - $1750

The biggest coup for the effort came when portlight arranged to get about $150,000 worth of medical equipment donated to the cause. Rob Ingham (AKA Rainman32) and Roger Knight (AKA NLimbo) took a rented truck to Atlanta, grabbed the gear, and delivered it to Houston. In the shipment:

Four Gaylord boxes medical supplies
-Soft casts
-various catheter kits
-catheter bags
-oxygen tubing kits
-other misc. medical supplies
13 hospital bed mattresses and pressure pads
2 Gaylord boxes of sanitized walkers (20 per box)
4 Gaylord boxes of unsanitized walkers (20 per box)
2 pallets with two electric wheelchairs each (4)
100 pairs of crutches
30 bedside commodes sanitized
6 gerry chairs

Jeff Masters

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802. farhaonhebrew
5:17 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting Vortex95:
The GFS model shows a developing TS moving in the middle of the atlantic and a Strong high pressure system that could keep it on a more westerly track for a while.
Link
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 248
801. KBH
4:42 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting cchsweatherman:

thanks cchs, I raised the query earlier as I did not see anything on noaa or ecmwf, no ciculation is also bad for the islands as that area of activity will dump lots of rains...suppose heavy rains, flooding.. is not really activity........
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278
800. sporteguy03
4:17 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Old Blog?
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5270
799. indianrivguy
4:02 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Thanks Orca, for hosting that PP.. you rawk brother.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2535
798. MissNadia
3:55 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
New Blog
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3002
797. Orcasystems
3:52 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting MissNadia:

Why didn't the bears finish all of them?


Mostly coastal Black Bears on the island.. ever seen a coastal Black bear? about half the size, make that made a 1/3. Only real predator they had were cougars.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
796. MissNadia
3:50 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:

hehe we aren't in the US :P

Why didn't the bears finish all of them?
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3002
795. Orcasystems
3:49 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting MissNadia:

Bet they didn't have a USDA stamp

hehe we aren't in the US :P
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
794. MissNadia
3:48 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


hehe check the regs.. no rule covered it. We were innocent.

Bet they didn't have a USDA stamp
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3002
793. BenBlog
3:47 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting Vortex95:
don't forget about the Bushmen.

Haha.
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 78
792. Orcasystems
3:46 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting MissNadia:
Hey Orcasystems
Cow Hunting ??????
WTH???????
Never would check a fish boat for poached beef!


hehe check the regs.. no rule covered it. We were innocent.

Now the pistols.. different matter :) You know how we used to like to shoot at each other on the Skeena or Nass
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
791. MissNadia
3:44 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Hey Orcasystems
Cow Hunting ??????
WTH???????
Never would check a fish boat for poached beef!
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3002
789. Orcasystems
3:41 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Hurricane IKE Pictures in Power Point Format ... From TropicTraveler (5MB)

The link is also available on my Blog and mirror site
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
788. sporteguy03
3:39 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting IKE:


Global Warming....the elections...the stock market and sports.


Which is your favorite Ike, lol.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5270
787. BenBlog
3:37 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting sporteguy03:



Singing in the rain?

Lol.
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 78
786. sporteguy03
3:35 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting NolaLevees:
season appears pretty much over...October can be a busy month, though not that busy for the CONUS...lots of cold fronts moving down now protecting the GOM (not to mention the sheer) the weather has been outstanding...cooler and drier than normal for October...I'll start looking at this site again in mid August....



Singing in the rain?
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5270
785. BenBlog
3:34 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Wow
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 78
784. pearlandaggie
3:31 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
now, this looks better...hopefully, it will stay this way...

Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
783. BenBlog
3:30 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Anyone think 96L will do anything?
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 78
782. gordydunnot
3:26 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Visible looks like 97L will be at 9n 35w anytime, run loop nice rotation on visible.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
781. ShenValleyFlyFish
3:23 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
780. ShenValleyFlyFish
3:22 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
779. Orcasystems
3:22 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Got to go about 10 gage triple 0 buckshot to bring down a flying cow. Still got to be a heck of a wing shot. Those things move. One flew better part of a county in these parts when I was a kid. Farmer said milk production off for a couple of days till settled back in. All ways could tell when a storm was coming way ahead of time after that. Ol Bossy would high tail it for the barn.

Good thing tournedos of that size are rare around here.

With my dyslexia I remember wondering wether 'nedos got their name from fling cows because did know that toro meant bull in spanish.

Haven't thought about that in years.


Hmm sometimes your a strange little Camper :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
778. ShenValleyFlyFish
3:20 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting surfmom:
Oh MY GOODNESS -- coffee sputters all over the place --- Cows a la tornado?? is that real??? first I roared, ....now I feeling bad for the poor thing...curdled milk for sure


Got to go about 10 gage triple 0 buckshot to bring down a flying cow. Still got to be a heck of a wing shot. Those things move. One flew better part of a county in these parts when I was a kid. Farmer said milk production off for a couple of days till settled back in. All ways could tell when a storm was coming way ahead of time after that. Ol Bossy would high tail it for the barn.

Good thing tournedos of that size are rare around here.

With my dyslexia I remember wondering wether 'nedos got their name from fling cows because did know that toro meant bull in spanish.

Haven't thought about that in years.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
776. Orcasystems
3:17 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting Vortex95:
What? im getting this annoying ad banner in here saying I won a 1000 dollar walmart gift card BUT only if I do X, X, X and 30 more X's.


pay your $10 :) and join :) then no ads
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
775. Beachfoxx
3:17 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Ya'll have a great day.... This weather is too gorgeous to be indoors.

Peace!

☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29383
774. indianrivguy
3:16 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
wow, on the donation front.. the NFL Texans have generated 2.5 million towards Ike relief. Texan owner did up .5 mil, nfl 1.0 mil, Colts owner 50k.. good news.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2535
772. TropicTraveler
3:15 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting TropicTraveler:
Thanks Orca - I tried photobucket but it's in a file rather than separate pictures. I'll email you right now.

I'm usually good with computer stuff but feel like a total idiot about posting links. Felt really humiliated when tropical amanda and others of the same ilk breezily posted link after link.
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 924
771. SWFLDigTek
3:13 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting NolaLevees:
season appears pretty much over...October can be a busy month, though not that busy for the CONUS...lots of cold fronts moving down now protecting the GOM (not to mention the sheer) the weather has been outstanding...cooler and drier than normal for October...I'll start looking at this site again in mid August....


Later...
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 117 Comments: 398
770. ILwatcher
3:13 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting presslord:
Their Final Calls
By MONICA RHOR, AP
GALVESTON, Texas (Oct. 4) - The final hours ...


Thanks, Paul
Member Since: September 12, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1644
769. KEHCharleston
3:13 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
74.4°F / 23.6°C, clear, low humidity (Charleston)
Good day for sitting out on the piazza and reading. (will leave the running to surfmom)

Nothing to note on the buoys in the Caribbean

Orca - Thanks (lol). Give SWMBO'ed my best.

I will lurk quietly on and off today.
Y'all have a great day!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
767. KRL
3:11 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Hurricane Ike's Environmental Toll on the GOM

quite an eye opener that has hardly received any media attention.

Hurricane Ike's Environmental Damage From Crude Oil & Chemicals
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
766. NolaLevees
3:09 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
season appears pretty much over...October can be a busy month, though not that busy for the CONUS...lots of cold fronts moving down now protecting the GOM (not to mention the sheer) the weather has been outstanding...cooler and drier than normal for October...I'll start looking at this site again in mid August....
765. TropicTraveler
3:09 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


To post something with a link, you have to have a place to put it that is web accessible.
Go to WU mail, and mail me, I will give you my proper email addy, and put it on the website for you after I scan it for viruses. I will leave it up for a day or two, and you can post a link to it.

Thanks Orca - I tried photobucket but it's in a file rather than separate pictures. I'll email you right now.
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 924
764. stoormfury
3:08 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
morning
i am watching an area of disturbed weather in the eatl which is associated with a westward moving tropical wave. the area 9n 26w has some rotation in the mid levels. wind shear is 10 knots and good 850mb voticity. low level convergence as well as upper level divergence is good and the area looks set for some form of cyclogenesis the next few days. this could be the area that the GFS has been hinting of tropical development by thursday or friday this week. we will just have to wait and see
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2674
763. hunkerdown
3:06 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting IKE:


Global Warming....the elections...the stock market and sports.
And who else watched the rather lame fight card last night, featuring the lamest bout of the night with Kimbo Slice ? From the women's fight they showed, does anybody know what TV show Gina Carano is from ?
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
761. KEHCharleston
3:04 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting bwt1982:
Now that all the stroms are done for the season what does everyone talk about in here?!?!

Cows and dresses
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
760. Orcasystems
3:04 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting IKE:
Until that shear abates....season over in the US of A.


Ike, go look at the CMC, hours 66-84
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
759. Beachfoxx
3:03 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Hi IKE,

Love that shear! and this weather. : )
Quoting IKE:
Until that shear abates....season over in the US of A.
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29383
758. Orcasystems
3:03 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting bwt1982:
Where is all the tropical devolpments these models keep predicting. There was something that was supposed to devolop last weekend this weekend????? But nothing. I do think a couple of storms will still devolop but they probably wont threaten land. Now that all the stroms are done for the season what does everyone talk about in here?!?!


You know, basics.. like October is the second busiest month for Hurricanes..and how some people think its over already.. the basics :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
757. IKE
3:02 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Until that shear abates....season over in the US of A.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
756. hunkerdown
3:02 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting bwt1982:
Where is all the tropical devolpments these models keep predicting. There was something that was supposed to devolop last weekend this weekend????? But nothing. I do think a couple of storms will still devolop but they probably wont threaten land. Now that all the stroms are done for the season what does everyone talk about in here?!?!
Just because a model says something will develop you can't rely on it...everybody should know about predicting the future, especially with weather. Don't count on all the storms being done for the season, it is still early in October, we could still have storms (whether a model predicts it or not).
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
755. IKE
3:01 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Shear, up to NINETY-KNOTS, protecting the USA....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
754. Beachfoxx
3:00 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Snow & how cold it is up north! LOL
Quoting bwt1982:
Where is all the tropical devolpments these models keep predicting. There was something that was supposed to devolop last weekend this weekend????? But nothing. I do think a couple of storms will still devolop but they probably wont threaten land. Now that all the stroms are done for the season what does everyone talk about in here?!?!
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29383
753. IKE
3:00 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Quoting bwt1982:
Where is all the tropical devolpments these models keep predicting. There was something that was supposed to devolop last weekend this weekend????? But nothing. I do think a couple of storms will still devolop but they probably wont threaten land. Now that all the stroms are done for the season what does everyone talk about in here?!?!


Global Warming....the elections...the stock market and sports.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
752. bwt1982
2:58 PM GMT on October 05, 2008
Where is all the tropical devolpments these models keep predicting. There was something that was supposed to devolop last weekend this weekend????? But nothing. I do think a couple of storms will still devolop but they probably wont threaten land. Now that all the stroms are done for the season what does everyone talk about in here?!?!
Member Since: September 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 143

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.