Western Caribbean disturbance flares up
Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased substantially this morning in association with a broad area of low pressure over the Western Caribbean. Visible satellite loops show a modest but expanding area of heavy thunderstorms, with no sign of organization or a surface circulation. Wind shear is moderate, in the 10-20 knot range. The disturbance is moving very little at present.
Figure 1. Current satellite image of the Western Caribbean. Image credit: NOAA.
Steering currents are weak in the Western Caribbean, and there should be little motion of the system over the next three days. Heavy rain from the disturbance has already moved into the Cayman Islands, and will begin to affect northern Honduras, western Cuba, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the next two days. None of the computer models develop this disturbance. However, with wind shear expected to stay in the moderate 10-15 knot range through Sunday, and the upper level winds expected to take on an anticyclonic flow, I give this disturbance a medium (20-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. NHC is currently giving it a low (<20% chance) of developing.
Links to follow
Wundermap for the Western Caribbean
Grand Cayman weather
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Good morning everyone.. not around much this week but lurk when I can.
I sure hope this Caribbean blob doesn't do anything!
I open up 'da blog to see a "disturbance" in W. Caribbean.
Just Say NO! I hope it stays disturbing and nothing more...
I'm going back to the beach! : )
I'm bring this over from the last blog..
MJO is lurking around. If we see it dive out of the circle deep into 8 or 1 we maybe in for something named..
Bahama blob is gone now. We may see 1 or more new navy invests today. Looking at the big pic, I don't see anything backing that front back over FL in the short term so Cuba/Bahamas are at biggest risk for NOAA declared invest at the moment but like Jeff mentions above weak steering currently, going no where fast. The blob approaching the east Caribbean is being harrassed pretty heavily by an Upper Level Low (naked swirl to the north). Should keep it in check.. Seastep~ I suspect the ULL is fanning the upper levels causing plenty of diffluence aloft, hence the convection.
And rightly so. This is one of the situations you look for when talking about October Cyclones. SST's are high, winds marginal to more favorable. Models are rather useless at this point.
Can anyone explain the procedure for the rain collector and snowfall? I understand it will measure the water content of the snowfall as it melts, but I am confused about the reporting of rainfall when it is actually snowfall. I just installed a heater in the collector for this winters freezing temps here. Gee, I hope I am phrasing this question right, it is ruff being a low-end novice!
shear is on a major increase!!
as for effecting florida. Too early to tell, Have to see the pattern in the coming days. Right now there is very little steering currents so the blob will just wander in place for the next few days
Basically what you want to do is have a flat board next to the rain collector. The hail pad works well. Measure the snowfall first to the nearest .10 inch. Then stick the round tube in to the snow on the board. Bring it inside and either wait till it melts or take a measuring cup and add hot water to it. Note the amount of water in the measuring cup, add it to the snow in the tube already. After it melts subtract the amount of water added from the measurement in the collector. There you have it, water content of the snowfall.
In reporting the snowfall, report the water content then in the notes report the snow depth.
After a while you get used to how snow behaves and can quickly estimate even before measurements are taken, that way you can see if you have an anomolous measurement.
This was answered on the last blog...
rains have started again and winds have picked up from the south with some stronger gust
Hi KBH. Where are you?
And bonedog was kind enough to post it again. ;)
Still there, just not featured. Go to main blog page.
Where are you seeing that conchy? Can't find it on NHC or Navy. TIA.
Link
Might be an interesting weekend, see how this one plays out.
This is.. 96L by now? or 95L? Sort of lost track.
I just recall 'the' 96L of last year, that kept us guessing for about a week, haha.
Agree
Got it. ;)
94L ran up the east coast
95L was Kyle
96L was Laura
Thanks for the clarification. As said, totally lost track.
Thanks Bonedog for your input with this. I guess what I should have asked is… It doesn’t matter that the rain collector is reporting the (melted snowfall) as rain accumulation then? Since it is still precipitation.
Sorry for the repost, I didn’t see this response at first glance.
Have a good one...
(Sorry, not really kept up with the blog lately!)
Dont forget report the snow on ground everyday even without snowfall. If its spotty (ie just in the shade or a patch here and there) report Trace
Barbados
Thanks. Was just there on a cruise. Nice place!
Fine by me if it stays a depression - give the buoys a push and then go poof
I'm w/Beachfox -- got the officework done, NO barnwork today --The sky is heavenly blue, sun is shining --I'm off to the Lake of Mexico, board in hand for a quick paddle and sun
Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network
we are a bunch of laypersons that collect rain, hail, snow data and report it to our chapters website which inturn reports to the NWS office. During severe weather the reports are flagged and directly reported to the NWS to help with watchs and warnings issuances.
Link
Right, a worthy cause.
Thanks very much. :)
Thank you for the promising update.
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