Western Caribbean disturbance flares up

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on October 03, 2008

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Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased substantially this morning in association with a broad area of low pressure over the Western Caribbean. Visible satellite loops show a modest but expanding area of heavy thunderstorms, with no sign of organization or a surface circulation. Wind shear is moderate, in the 10-20 knot range. The disturbance is moving very little at present.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of the Western Caribbean. Image credit: NOAA.

Steering currents are weak in the Western Caribbean, and there should be little motion of the system over the next three days. Heavy rain from the disturbance has already moved into the Cayman Islands, and will begin to affect northern Honduras, western Cuba, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the next two days. None of the computer models develop this disturbance. However, with wind shear expected to stay in the moderate 10-15 knot range through Sunday, and the upper level winds expected to take on an anticyclonic flow, I give this disturbance a medium (20-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. NHC is currently giving it a low (<20% chance) of developing.

Links to follow
Wundermap for the Western Caribbean
Grand Cayman weather


Jeff Masters

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708. sporteguy03
2:16 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
StormW,
Have a great day trip! Enjoy the silence:)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
707. sporteguy03
2:16 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Weekend New Blog!
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
706. kmanislander
1:52 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Will be back later.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
705. kmanislander
1:50 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Here is the shear tendency map for the Caribbean showing that shear has been increasing over the past 24 hrs.



Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
704. kmanislander
1:46 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
There is a very strong ULL to the S of the Mona passage moving due W and by tomorrow it should start to bring high shear values to the Central and NW Caribbean. The window of opportunity for the area of disturbed weather to develop is therefore closing very quickly.

Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
703. Orcasystems
1:45 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Quoting conchygirl:
come on Orca, say it.


I just post em..I don't make em :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
702. conchygirl
1:43 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:
Oh oh.. the CMC is going to make me have to put a taboo word in the update
come on Orca, say it.
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
701. Orcasystems
1:42 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Hour 90 is a small one to look at.

Complete Update Blog
Mirror Site
CMC .... Caribbean, BOC & Atlantic flaring up (Hour 60)
CMC ... NOLA (Hour 90)
CMC ... Caribbean (Hour 156)
CMC ... Atlantic Part 2 (Hour 192)
CMC ... PR, Atlantic part 3 (Hour 228)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
700. kmanislander
1:41 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
695. It still can become a depression, right?


The NHC are giving it low odds of doing so.

October is the month when we typically see systems develop in that general area and to the N of Panama so it is not out of the question but right now it is not even close to being a depression.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
699. Orcasystems
1:40 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Oh oh.. the CMC is going to make me have to put a taboo word in the update
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
697. hurricanemaniac123
1:37 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
695. It still can become a depression, right?
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 688
696. Orcasystems
1:36 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Good Morning everyone :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
695. kmanislander
1:35 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
Is the low moving towards or away from land?

What are the chances that we will see a depression form from this?


The strongest vorticity at 850 mb ( 5000 feet )is just inland over the extreme SW Gulf of Honduras. Given the very broad nature of the low it is difficult to describe it as having any particular motion.

As far as the chances of it becoming a depression goes, it is a long way from that. We would first need to see a better defined surface low take shape. Yesterday morning I thought there was a chance for a closed low within 36 hrs ( which would be early tonight )but given the QS pass the soonest we would likely see anything taking shape there would be Sunday night IMO.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
694. hurricanemaniac123
1:29 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Is the low moving towards or away from land?

What are the chances that we will see a depression form from this?
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 688
693. kmanislander
1:27 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Good Morning

There is no surface low in the NW Caribbean according to the quikscat pass this morning. While there may be a very broad area of generally low pressure we do not even see a marked wind shift.

The area of disturbed weather is nothing more than thundershowers at this point but if it persists and remains over water there is still a chance for some development as shear is very low over the entire Western Caribbean at this time.

Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
692. CybrTeddy
1:17 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Quoting IKE:


Yeah...heard of her and ran from her. Unless shear abates, no Opal this year....and Opal was right now in 1995....October 4th---5th---6th. There's way too much shear now. Maybe it will change in a week...but the odds of an Opal are diminishing.


Who said a Wilma wasn't out of the question either? I believe the GFS forcasting the shear to decrease and is doing some now, look at shear tendency.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
691. extreme236
12:56 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
The disturbance that the NHC mentions the GFS develops and hinders 15E appears to have formed and the NHC has also added a 1008mb low to it. Looks like if this begins to organize 15E won't last long.

Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
690. seflagamma
12:52 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
good morning everyone,

it is Saturday.. I'm at work but at least my last day this week.

It was pouring rain when I got up at 6am and raining since. appears my area here in Broward County FLA is going to have a nasty weekend... and I've got about 25 people coming over tomorrow for BBQ Poolparty get together...well, if it keeps this up.. we will be inside house and patio not outside!
Please make this rain go away from here.. we've had too much lately (5" last weekend)

will be checking in and out as I can today.
take care,
Gams
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 302 Comments: 40954
689. hurricanemaniac123
12:48 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Weren't we all just writing off the Yucatan disturbance yesterday?


I didn't. There's a lot of convection now around it. Only 5 knots of shear.

Does this now have a better possibility of becoming a depression?
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 688
688. KEHCharleston
12:34 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Good morning, all

Geeze Louise, my choice for door#2 sure didn't pan out.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
687. surfmom
12:29 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Heading out to work - happily it's w/4 leggeds (horses) and not humans..other then my son. Beautiful cool dry morning in SWFL - Great day to ride, and work on tuning them up for Polo Season. If I come back to learn that circle 1 or 2 will be wave makers --which I know is doubtful-- I would be pleasantly surprised. Good Day to All
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
684. bwt1982
12:08 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Quoting msphar:
Whats with the incipient rotation near Hispaniola and also the one near 22N, 50W ?


Nothing!
Member Since: September 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 143
682. charlottefl
12:03 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Shear in the gulf of Mexico is forecast to back down to about 15 knots in 72 hours, as well as a good portion of the Atlantic. Not highly favorable for development, but may make the next few weeks interesting. High pressure is also building back in, up against the E coast of FL running SW-NE.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2687
681. surfmom
12:03 PM GMT on October 04, 2008
Does the shear hang around long enough to keep the MJO in check? oh yeaa good morning!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
680. sporteguy03
11:57 AM GMT on October 04, 2008
Jphurricane06,
Any thoughts on the rest of '08?
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
679. IKE
11:56 AM GMT on October 04, 2008
Quoting leftovers:
panhandlers your season is not over. ever heard of opal?


Yeah...heard of her and ran from her. Unless shear abates, no Opal this year....and Opal was right now in 1995....October 4th---5th---6th. There's way too much shear now. Maybe it will change in a week...but the odds of an Opal are diminishing.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
678. JRRP
11:54 AM GMT on October 04, 2008
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6213
677. IKE
11:54 AM GMT on October 04, 2008
Houston,TX. discussion....

"""Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
400 am CDT Sat Oct 4 2008


Discussion...
little change to the ongoing forecast package this morning as
models/reasoning remain about the same. Although a gradual
increase in moisture will be in the works this weekend thanks to
the onshore flow...levels still remain fairly low for chances of
precipitation. May see some isolated rain showers across western zones Sun afternoon. Precipitable waters
climb enough on Monday to see some isolated/scattered precipitation as convective
temperatures in the middle 80s are met. Still looking like the best shot of
rain will be in the late Monday night-Wednesday morning timeframe as
upper level trough and associated frontal boundary moves into the
area. Will keep probability of precipitation around 50% for now but these will probably be
bumped up into the likely range with time assuming no significant
changes in timing/details arise. Could see some decent rainfall
amounts with precipitable waters at or above 2" pooling along the front and a diffluent
upper pattern aloft. Front should push off the coast Wednesday morning
bringing rainfall to an end for a couple days. GFS...and to a
degree European model (ecmwf)...trending toward a wet Sat/sun next week."""
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
675. JRRP
11:50 AM GMT on October 04, 2008
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 20N49W TO 10N51W BASED ON MIMIC TPW
ANIMATION... SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS MOVING
W 10-15 KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL E OF THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 19N60W TO 9N61W MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 13N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 60W-64W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE WAVE.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6213
673. IKE
11:48 AM GMT on October 04, 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 04 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
672. IKE
11:47 AM GMT on October 04, 2008
Quoting msphar:
Whats with the incipient rotation near Hispaniola and also the one near 22N, 50W ?


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
416 am AST Sat Oct 4 2008


Discussion...the vigorous upper level low moving across Puerto
Rico this morning...will continue to track rapidly westward and
away from the local islands this afternoon...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
670. tkeith
11:46 AM GMT on October 04, 2008
Quoting IKE:


I was just thinking and saying to myself....

"unless the shear lessens, this season is over with for me".....

We may see wome rain in the middle of next week with another front moving through.
thats news I can use ...lol..I dont take much for granted whenit comes to weather but it just dont feel like Hurricane season here in N.O.
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
669. msphar
11:46 AM GMT on October 04, 2008
Whats with the incipient rotation near Hispaniola and also the one near 22N, 50W ?
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
668. IKE
11:44 AM GMT on October 04, 2008
80 knots of shear over the panhandle of Florida....I'm protected.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
667. 954FtLCane
11:43 AM GMT on October 04, 2008
RE 656. I guess that posting from the NHC was placed ahead of time.... sorry vortfix
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
666. CybrTeddy
11:42 AM GMT on October 04, 2008
Weren't we all just writing off the Yucatan disturbance yesterday?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
665. IKE
11:41 AM GMT on October 04, 2008
Quoting tkeith:
Ike, if these cool fronts continue to come as far saout as this the I'm enjoying now wont that make it alot harder for Northern Gulf states to get much in the way of tropical storms?


I was just thinking and saying to myself....

"unless the shear lessens, this season is over with for me".....

We may see some rain in the middle of next week with another front moving through.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
664. JRRP
11:40 AM GMT on October 04, 2008
PR
Link

Link
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6213
663. Enola
11:39 AM GMT on October 04, 2008
Quoting StormW:
I'll be on a road trip for today...as a quick obs...the W.Caribbean area should move W-WNW and wind up in the GOMEX, where wind shear should prevent anything.

Thanks Storm, and stay safe.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 269
662. tkeith
11:39 AM GMT on October 04, 2008
Ike, if these cool fronts continue to come as far south as this the I'm enjoying now wont that make it alot harder for Northern Gulf states to get much in the way of tropical storms?
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
661. IKE
11:38 AM GMT on October 04, 2008
The shear is protecting the USA....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
659. IKE
11:35 AM GMT on October 04, 2008
That strong ULL moving west of PR may eat up that disturbance in the western Caribbean within a couple of days unless it gets moving.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
658. IKE
11:34 AM GMT on October 04, 2008
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
416 am AST Sat Oct 4 2008


Discussion...the vigorous upper level low moving across Puerto
Rico this morning...will continue to track rapidly westward and
away from the local islands this afternoon...with favorable upper level
dynamics on the backside of this low allowing for increased shower and
thunderstorm activity across Puerto Rico and the surrounding
coastal waters today. Additionally...expect the tropical wave
crossing the Lesser Antilles this morning...to pass just south of
the local islands late in the day...with convection associated
with this wave already being enhanced by the aforementioned upper
level low. As a result...went ahead and increased probability of precipitation...cloud
cover and overall weather across the forecast area for
today...with the most numerous showers expected across the
Cordillera Central and western sections of the island...although
variably to mostly cloudy skies and at least scattered shower
activity will be expected for everyone. Latest lightning data is
already indicating some lightning strikes off the north coast of
PR this morning and across the offshore Caribbean waters...and
only expect continued enhancement of showers and storms as we go
through the day.


A decrease in low level moisture is evident behind the approaching
tropical wave...and expect this drier air to begin moving across
the local islands during the day on Sunday. This relatively drier
and more stable air is then expected to persist across the local
islands through Monday...with diurnal shower activity expected
each day...before an additional surge in moisture and shower
activity...associated with another TUTT low currently near
22n/48w...moves across the local area Tuesday and Wednesday.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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