October hurricane season outlook
Climatologically, the first half of October is part of the peak portion of hurricane season. Activity does not begin to drop off significantly until mid-October (Figure 1). During the 13-year active Atlantic hurricane period that began in 1995, we've averaged 2.7 named storms, 1.1 hurricanes, and 0.5 intense hurricanes during the month of October. The busiest October on record was 2005, when seven named storms, three hurricanes, and one intense hurricane occurred (including Wilma, the strongest hurricane on record).
Figure 1. Climatology of Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms.
Far fewer Cape Verdes-type hurricanes form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands during October, compared to September (Figure 2). Many of those that do form recurve out to sea, and the odds are that hurricane season is over for the Lesser Antilles Islands. Only four October hurricanes have affected these islands since 1851. Hurricane season is also probably over for Texas, which which has only seen three October hurricanes since 1851. Hurricane season is definitely not over for Central America, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, the U.S. coast from Louisiana to New England, plus Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the islands of the central and western Caribbean.
Figure 2. Tracks of all hurricane and tropical storms forming in the first half of October.
Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and oceanic heat content are declining now, but are still plenty warm enough to support a major hurricane in some regions. In particular, the entire Caribbean is 0.5-1.0°C above average in temperature, as are the waters off the U.S. East Coast (Figure 3). The waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Bahamas are quite cool, due to the lingering effects of the passage of Hurricanes Ike and Gustav. Due to these SST patterns, a major hurricane would be most likely to affect the Western Caribbean.
Figure 3. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for October 2, 2008. Image credit: NOAA.
Wind Shear
The latest 15-day wind shear forecast from the GFS model predicts that wind shear across the tropical Atlantic will remain in the average to below average range. In the longer term, wind shear is predicted by NOAA's CFS model to remain below average over the Caribbean for October through December.
When will activity pick up again?
There is an oscillation in the atmosphere I've talked a little about, called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator, and can act to boost hurricane activity when it propagates into the Atlantic. The MJO has a period of about 30-60 days, and is currently in its active phase over the Atlantic. According to the latest 15-day GFS model forecast and the MJO discussion from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, we are expected to remain in an active phase for the MJO over the Atlantic for at least the next two weeks. This year, the active phase of the MJO has been strongly correlated with formation of named storms in the Atlantic. According to the latest analysis by Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (Table 4, below), ten of the last eleven named storms in the Atlantic this year formed during an active phase of the MJO. We can anticipate an above average chance of tropical storm formation in the Atlantic this October as a result.
The forecast
Due to above average SSTs in the Caribbean, an active phase of the MJO, and average to below average wind shear over the tropical Atlantic this month, we can expect levels of tropical storm activity similar to what has been seen in past Octobers, since the current active hurricane phase began in 1995. However, the models are showing nothing forming over the next week, and the tropics look pretty quiet right now. In consequence, I am expecting two named storms and one hurricane this month. There is a 50/50 chance this hurricane will be an intense hurricane. The October forecast from Colorado State University is more aggressive, and calls for 3 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and one major hurricane.
Steering currents
Now that it is October, the jet stream is more active and farther south, resulting in increased chances of recurvature for tropical cyclones. However, the latest 15-day GFS model forecast predicts more high pressure than usual over the Eastern U.S., which will result in longer recurvature delays than is usual for October storms. Thus, the risk of an October hurricane hitting the U.S. East Coast is higher than average this year.
Summary of Hurricane Ike relief efforts
When a major hurricane hits, relief efforts are always confused and don't reach many areas with great needs. Thus, a group of wunderground bloggers mobilized the day after Ike hit to help out. Their goal was to provide immediate help where traditional aid efforts were coming short, with a focus on providing equipment for people with disabilities and a full spectrum of relief supplies to smaller communities often neglected. Traditional, professional relief efforts are weighed down by bureaucracy and cannot respond as nimbly as smaller, grass-roots relief efforts can. I believe our dollars have been well-spent by the relief effort organized by our own Patrap, Presslord, and Stormjunkie, under the banner of Portlight Strategies, Inc. They have responded quickly and delivered much-needed aid to communities hard-hit by Ike that were being under-served. The people involved in the relief effort were very passionate about serving, and they have sacrificed their time, sleep, health, and money to support this cause. I support their efforts to continue spending the money that was donated to the cause in the way intended. The passion they put into this effort led to conflicts when disagreements arose over how to operate this effort, though. In the haste to go from zero to 100 mph in a few days, and without a supporting bureaucracy or strategic plan to guide their efforts, it should be no surprise that there was confusion and mis-communication. I do not fault any of the people involved for the problems that have arisen. Rather, blame Hurricane Ike! Hurricanes cause chaos, and there was certainly plenty of that on the blogs last weekend. It's good to have these kinds of problems, which are, in part, due to the extraordinary and unexpected generosity of all of you who have contributed.
During a one hour conference call I participated in yesterday, Paul Timmons, Jr. (AKA Presslord), one of the founding Board members of portlight.org, pulled together a new advisory board for portlight.org. The board members are myself, Patrick Pearson (Patrap), John Wilbanks (Storm Junkie), Rob Ingham (Rainman32), Deb Nowinski (EmmyRose), and Kelly Timmons (Paul's wife, and accountant for Portlight.org). It was agreed at the meeting that Paul would been given the final authority to write all checks, but that the board would advise him on how the money should be spent. When a check is written, all members of the board will receive a notification via email. The current plan is to spend the available funds to deliver donated goods (mostly medical equipment for people with disabilities) to the Hurricane Ike devastation areas. The goods will be delivered by ground freight shipments, and by rented trucks driven by some of the advisory board members. About $9000 of the donated money will not be spent at this time, because it has been put in escrow at the advice of Portlight's lawyer. This money is being held in escrow because of the threat of legal action made against Portlight in the chaos last weekend. The money will remain in escrow until Portlight's lawyer advises them otherwise.
Now that the chaos has subsided and everyone on the advisory board has agreed we should move ahead, I am ready to once again endorse contributions. The WUBA Hurricane Ike relief fund, initially founded by Patrap, is controlled by Portlight Strategies, Inc., a 501c3 charity run by Paul Timmons, Jr. (Presslord) and three other board members. All donations are 100% tax deductible. The mission statement of Portlight is co-opting with individuals as well as other organizations to cut through red tape in order to directly meet the specific needs of unserved, under served, and forgotten people.
Donations can be sent via check and via PayPal. The funds are then transferred to the portlight.org checking account, and Presslord has been writing checks from this account to fund the relief efforts. As of this writing, there is about $1000 "stuck" in a defunct PayPal account because of a dispute over protocol. An agreement has been reached that this money will be released to the portlight.org checking account and used to fund relief efforts, though. Here's a breakdown of how much money has been donated, and how much spent. Figures are rounded to the nearest $100. More details can be found on StormJunkie's blog:
Total money donated: $31,200 (about 400 donors)
Total money spent so far: $10,350
Total money in the portlight.org checking account: $21,000
--$9,000 in escrow for legal defense
--$12,000 available for immediate relief operations
Total money in the original Paypal account set up by Patrap: $1000
Total money in the new Paypal account set up by Presslord: $250
Here's how the $10350 has been spent:
WalMart - $2000 - supplies
Costco - $1000 - supplies
Patrick Pearson (Patrap) - $1000 (fuel, rental costs for a truck)
Truck from Charleston - $1500 - fuel
Florida supply truck - $2100 - escort, credentialing, fuel, vehicle repair, lodging
Crew food,lodging, transport home - $1000
Truck rental, gas for truck from Atlanta - $1750
The biggest coup for the effort came when Paul arranged to get about $150,000 worth of medical equipment donated to the cause. Rob Ingham (AKA Rainman32) and Roger Knight (AKA NLimbo) received took a rented truck to Atlanta, grabbed the gear, and delivered it to Houston. In the shipment:
Four Gaylord boxes medical supplies
-Soft casts
-various catheter kits
-catheter bags
-oxygen tubing kits
-other misc. medical supplies
13 hospital bed mattresses and pressure pads
2 Gaylord boxes of sanitized walkers (20 per box)
4 Gaylord boxes of unsanitized walkers (20 per box)
2 pallets with two electric wheelchairs each (4)
100 pairs of crutches
30 bedside commodes sanitized
6 gerry chairs
I've been impressed by the dedication and effort put into this work by all the people involved. This is a much-needed humanitarian effort that has sprung up from the remarkable community we have here. I thank each one of you for participating. I do ask that all comments about the relief efforts on this blog be positive ones. There is no need to point out the mistakes of the past, which are painfully obvious. Portlight has plans to extend this effort into the future, and I plan to become a regular donor in coming years for the future hurricane disasters that will inevitably visit our shores.
If there's no activity or forecast activity in the tropics, I may leave this blog up for a few days.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Well, what you see is direct from the local Met guys. I have not got the sat & tech info, but I agree with you, there is more in this one than just a wave. Right now the first rains temporarily stopped (started about 1hr ago)no winds at all, but lots of lightning & thunder activity now,....waiting to see when it becomes and invest
ROFLMAO, flipping thru the charts.. where the "H" is Colorado..... I'll find it.
Well...if there's an "H" over Colorado, I doubt they'll get any rain. LOL!!!
Well, at least it proves I have a sense of humor. :)
Only in the SW corner.. and nothing I can see approaching from further out.. That being said.. thats a StormW/TampaSpin type question.
Right above New Mexico
Thanks for checking Orca. Just was hoping. Allergies are fierce right now.
I see that they are getting light snow on Mt. Washington, NH. 27 F
Thats being said.. remember, I can post pretty pictures, and read a model, and post more pretty pictures.. but I could not forecast my way out of a wet paper bag.. so take it for what its worth.. not much.
You would probably be able to get a job as one of my local mets on tv with those credentials.
Might I also point out.. my looks scares most cameras.. so alas, even the "talking head" position is out :)
Next week, I will be watching the area from off of the US Southeast coast through the western Caribbean for "homegrown" development. The global models continue to forecast that an area of high pressure will build over southeastern Canada by Tuesday abd remain in place through Thursday. A easterly wind flow will then develop in the area of the Bahamas with lowering pressures over the Caribbean. This type of weather pattern may pop a tropical depression or a tropical storm somewhere between the Bahamas and the western Caribbean next week. The UKMET and European models are forecasting a non-tropical storm to form southeast of New England on Tuesday and Wednesday and forecasts it to sit out in the open Atlantic through the Columbus Day weekend. The NOGAPS and Canadian models also forecast some sort of low pressure system to form east of the Bahamas around the middle of next week. So, the overall pattern next week suggests the area between off of the US Southeast Coast and the western Caribbean will have to be watched closely.
Finally, The MJO forecast calls for a very strong pulse in the Atlantic and Caribbean starting around October 11th. The overall pattern during the second half of October suggests that it is possible that we may see a landfalling tropical system in the United States due to high pressure near the US East Coast. It should be noted that the long range GFS model continues to forecast that activity may pick up in earnest starting around Columbus Day weekend and continuing through at least October 18th. So, this is something that I am going to continue to keep a very close eye on and I will keep you all updated.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 10 am EDT Saturday morning
from here
Link
Yea Im getting through now NE
seems we have two camps with the carib blob.
1) nothing will happen
2) its going to be the next storm
there is a third camp but we can religate them tot he Darwin Awards LOL
LOL
Morning, everybody. Going in to work late today. We are having the first real sunshine here all week; since Tuesday it's been overcast and intermittently rainy. It's interesting that the front is likely to retrograde rather than dissipate.
I'm going to get out of here in a little while - gotta go get ready for work - but I'm glad to see we still have a few more days before we can expect any tropical formation.
GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery Link
These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.
Follow the image links for alternate channel views of the same area.
That doesn't surprise me,this time of year,when the fronts hang around,when the conditions are right something usually gets going.
Still nothing showing the carib Im thinking just enhanced activity due to the trough. Lets see what happens over the weekend when I washes out.
Self-effacing humor is SO much more attractive than the blow-hards who think they know it all....going back to lurking mode.
Link
Doesn't look on sat to be reacting as would be expected given the shear environment to me.
With that level of shear, I would expect to see all that convection being displaced to the E and NE, but it doesn't seem to be having any problem moving W along w/ the wave.
Can someone explain this? TIA.
There Orca, you have fan.
Bahama blob is gone now. We may see 1 or more new navy invests today. Looking at the big pic, I don't see anything backing that front back over FL in the short term so Cuba/Bahamas are at biggest risk for NOAA declared invest at the moment. The blob approaching the east Caribbean is being harrassed pretty heavily by an Upper Level Low (naked swirl to the north). Should keep it in check.. Seastep~ I suspect the ULL is fanning the upper levels causing plenty of diffluence aloft.
Of course there is shear. The question is more how much that shear is affecting the wave. With my untrained (but experienced) eye, I would expect the heavy areas to not be able to proceed W w/ the wave. From watching previous systems, with that shear it should be, at best, stationary while the wave keeps moving W. ala Hanna or many other waves this year. Shear has been destroying systems left and right this year.
Just doesn't seem to look like I have seen previously under the same general conditions.
I would expect the "blob" to be displaced from the wave much more and that is not happening. JMO.
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