Laura dying; tropics look quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:45 PM GMT on October 01, 2008

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Well, it's October, and we're into the final month of peak hurricane season. Things look pretty quiet right now, and I don't see anything on the horizon meriting concern. Subtropical Storm Laura is almost dead, done in by cold North Atlantic waters. Visible satellite images show very little heavy thunderstorm activity, and Laura is currently transitioning into an extratropical storm. The remains of Laura will probably bring 45 mph winds to the coast of the British Isles on Sunday.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Laura.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A trough of low pressure extends from the Western Caribbean northeastwards over Cuba and the Bahamas. Thunderstorm activity is relatively weak and scattered along this trough. None of the models predict development in the Western Caribbean along this trough over the coming week. Development off the east coast of Florida, near the northwestern Bahamas, is possible late this week, but any such storm would move northeastward out to sea.

Hurricane Ike portlight.org charity relief efforts
I've agreed to act as an advisor for the Hurricane Ike portlight.org charity relief efforts spearheaded by Patrap, Presslord, and StormJunkie. I'll be participating in a conference call with them this afternoon, and will write up a summary of the effort that I plan to post tomorrow.

I'll post an Atlantic hurricane outlook for the month of October in Thursday's post.

Jeff Masters

Walking on water (dlegge)
Walking on water
Crystal Beach (BlueFire)
Hurricane Ike left some homes standing
Crystal Beach

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740. Dutchlady
4:16 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
StormW - we are all human.
I am sorry for your trouble.
Member Since: September 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
738. TampaSpin
2:08 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


NOOOooooo
Score... not scores.. not running scores.. just the score


Don't worry i will take care of Hockey also....ROFLMAO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
737. Orcasystems
2:02 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting TampaSpin:
727. Orcasystems 9:51 AM EDT on October 02, 2008
715. TampaSpin 1:40 PM GMT on October 02, 2008

hahah left you a comment on your blog


Now that is a great idea....running sports scores at the top also.....im on it.....LMAO


NOOOooooo
Score... not scores.. not running scores.. just the score
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
736. TampaSpin
2:01 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
734. StormW 9:59 AM EDT on October 02, 2008
Thanks Tim!

I kinda took a quick look so far...and kinda thought that. Just wanted to make sure these old eyes weren't foolin' me.


NOpe you still good my friend....cheer up...it all gets better......don't worry about all this crap....just do what you do best.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
735. NEwxguy
2:01 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting TampaSpin:
722. NEwxguy 9:43 AM EDT on October 02, 2008
Morning,Tampa.We did our part last night,so hopefully the Rays will do the same tonight


BE nice to met The Red sox for the AL champ!


Yeh,that's what I'm hoping for
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15046
733. KEHCharleston
1:58 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Help!

I am watching the west caribbean and using it as a learning model.
I get that warm seas, moist air and low shear = potential for tropical system development.

I am trying to get a handle on catching the beginnings - I am trying to look for vorticity.
Looking at the following image


I think I am seeing the following:
Winds from all directions=instability
The numbers in brown are the vorticity readings??? If so they are positive, so we should not expect anything today?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
732. TampaSpin
1:57 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
730. StormW 9:54 AM EDT on October 02, 2008
Adrian,
before I take off...what are your thoughts on that area near 40W?


StormW i have that blob on my blog as a devloping system in a couple of days....as it ducks under the High to the north.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
731. TampaSpin
1:54 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
727. Orcasystems 9:51 AM EDT on October 02, 2008
715. TampaSpin 1:40 PM GMT on October 02, 2008

hahah left you a comment on your blog


Now that is a great idea....running sports scores at the top also.....im on it.....LMAO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
729. palmbaywhoo
1:52 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
White Sox all the way... sorry Tampa
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 378
728. TampaSpin
1:52 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
724. Orcasystems 9:47 AM EDT on October 02, 2008
Quoting TampaSpin:
Morning everyone.......GO RAYS!


ROFL, I assume they won :)


No the first game for the RAys is today at 2:30


Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
727. Orcasystems
1:51 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
715. TampaSpin 1:40 PM GMT on October 02, 2008

hahah left you a comment on your blog.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
726. TampaSpin
1:51 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
722. NEwxguy 9:43 AM EDT on October 02, 2008
Morning,Tampa.We did our part last night,so hopefully the Rays will do the same tonight


BE nice to met The Red sox for the AL champ!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
725. hurricane23
1:50 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Adrian
I have found your website a huge help. - especially the glossary and tropical links. Nicely done.



Thanks for your comments i appreciate that.Its a work in progress hopefully when iam done with FSU i'll be able to give it a different look.The most resent addition was the new TC tracking software.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13594
724. Orcasystems
1:47 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting TampaSpin:
Morning everyone.......GO RAYS!


ROFL, I assume they won :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
723. Orcasystems
1:44 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting StormW:
698. KEHCharleston 9:18 AM EDT on October 02, 2008
RE: StormW
Like others I respect StormW's knowledge, his willingness to help all(regardless of our knowledge level), and his generosity with his time

StormW, I want to know who you are and what you did you do with the real StormW
It is hard to reconcile the StormW that I thought I knew with someone immature enough to remove his blog on the basis that it is not a "featured" blog.
Gawd, I hope I am not seeing you promoting a "put StormW back as a Feature Blog"
campaign - it is undignified and beneath you to do so.


It's not that way at all...I could care less if I'm a featured blog or not! Hell, I have 3 other blogs I post on, one I'm sure you may be familiar with...Storm2k, plus over 100 private clients that get my forecasts by email. Just that folks have been asking why it was pulled, and I've told them. The thing is, if I'm gonna be penalized for some silly emails, then Admin needs to be fair across the board, about what happens to who around here.





StormW, I assume there was more to it then a few silly emails. Silly emails do not come to the attention of Admin. I have sent you an WU message.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
722. NEwxguy
1:43 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Morning,Tampa.We did our part last night,so hopefully the Rays will do the same tonight
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15046
721. KEHCharleston
1:43 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Adrian
I have found your website a huge help. - especially the glossary and tropical links. Nicely done.

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
720. sporteguy03
1:41 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
As Lurker Ike says,
What a blog, lol!
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5120
719. tornadofan
1:41 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting FLdewey:
Come off the ledge people... Storm isn't going anywhere. He posts every time he arrives or departs his computer.

Storm I do enjoy reading your posts... but you could cut down on the "I'm here", "I'll be back", "I'm here", "going to the grocery", "I'm back", "Got to go to the Dr. to have the prostate checked", "Back again", "Need to eat", "Back", "Gotta shower".


LOL - that causes me to chuckle...
Member Since: April 5, 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345
718. ncleclerc
1:41 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting hurricane23:
I dont blame storm for pulling the plug on his blog this place is certainly not what it used to be a few years back.For me personally my posts have certainly been on the decline over the past year or two as its become pretty difficult to express your views on here without being criticized and at times disrespected.All in all i respect and appreciate your views SW.

Give me a ring when you have a chance. Adrian


That is so true. Time where none of this criticizing and disrepect was going on. It is sad that we can't say what we want without someone trying to debate you on it till it starts a big fuss! I see that the alot of the bloggers that have been on here at the very being are gone or starting to not be around as much. SAD
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
717. NEwxguy
1:40 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting conchygirl:
Nice, quiet day yesterday and today is another day of drama.


I was thinking the same thing,enjoyed the blog yesterday,but I guess it was too much to ask for two days in a row.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15046
716. hurricane23
1:40 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Even though convection in the NW caribbean has increased a tad its still disorganized with little hints of a surface feature developing.Models ive viewed this morning seem less bullish on development.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13594
715. TampaSpin
1:40 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Morning everyone.......GO RAYS!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
712. hurricane23
1:34 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
I dont blame storm for pulling the plug on his blog this place is certainly not what it used to be a few years back.For me personally my posts have certainly been on the decline over the past year or two as its become pretty difficult to express your views on here without being criticized and at times disrespected.All in all i respect and appreciate your views SW.

Give me a ring when you have a chance. Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13594
711. ILwatcher
1:29 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
708 -- did so the morning after...

I'll add yours to the file I have here. Thanks.
Member Since: September 12, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1644
710. KEHCharleston
1:28 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting BeanTech:


Well, there is ONE thing that I will allow in the mornings before my coffee...but that's a discussion for another blog.


LOL - See how much I need that coffee! I really should not do anything before it.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
708. KEHCharleston
1:26 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
RE:702. ILwatcher - Local coverage of Ike. You may want to send those links to Stormjunkie (just post a comment to his blog) and any others you have.

I would add these links to yours

Sept 9
http://www.galvestonpolicenews.com/html/thomas0909.wma

Sept 10
http://www.galvestonpolicenews.com/html/thomas0910.wma

Pre Ike Fox Report
http://www.myfoxhouston.com/myfox/MyFox/pages/sidebar_video.jsp?contentId=7405530&version=1&locale= EN-US

Now I am off for coffee - before I get myself in more trouble.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
707. RitaEvac
1:25 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
342 people still missing. Half are probably dead at this point.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
705. IKE
1:23 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting coneofdoom:
Oh, PLEASE PLEASE DON'T LEAVE StormW. How can we make it life without you? I'll just kill myself if you leave. How can the WU people be so cruel over such silly emails?

PLEASE, I'm more addicted to your updates than I am coffee. I'll cry every day without you.


Not sure if you're not teasing.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
703. RitaEvac
1:22 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Patrap San Leon community along Galveston Bay in Galveston county needs a lot of help. FEMA hasnt been there, people in trailers are lost and have nowhere to go. Dire needs over there.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
702. ILwatcher
1:21 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Longtime lurker here... I listened to local media coverage of Ike nonstop for days before and after landfall. I couldn't believe what I was hearing. I've saved a couple of the press conferences that still make me shake my head with wonder/dismay.

For those discussing the casual tone of the "alerts" I'd like to offer two press conferences that took place in Galveston. The first was Wednesday evening. The video below takes about 30 minutes to play through entirely but the residents of Galveston and the rest of the island are clearly told that it was already too late to call for a mandatory evacuation. Much of the most unbelievable discussion takes place in the Q&A session after the prepared remarks. It's worth listening to the entire thing.

http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/khou080909_tj_galveston_evacuations_west_end.5df47ae7.html

Then, at 10:00 the following morning (Thursday) Mayor Thomas and county officials changed their minds and called for a mandatory evacuation of the entire city/island. This was AFTER most of the residents had already gone to work for the day.

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/video?id=6384874

The following is a summary I posted on another site where I'm a regular poster. Some there were referring to those who stayed behind as "bastards" for putting rescue workers at risk.

"I wish I could find the clip where Mayor Thomas vehemently denied reports that refusal to leave the island could result in certain death. There is little or no urgency in any of her announcements. She stated on Wednesday that it was too late to call for a mandatory evacuation of the entire island and then did so Thursday morning after the workday had begun and most people were at work.

There are legal implications in Texas when calling for a mandatory evacuation that they were not prepared to meet and knew full well on Thursday when they told everyone to get out of dodge that it was too late for that to happen. They also knew that they did not have shelter facilities available for the residents to flee to that are required by Texas code when calling for a mandatory evacuation. The video in the link above clearly indicates that on Wednesday night the residents of Galveston were told to go to the grocery store and go home, that it was too late to call for a mandatory evacuation, that none of them wanted a repeat of Rita, that this was a Cat 2 or 3 storm, that most of the buildings on the island could withstand a Cat 2 or 3 storm, that they were only looking to evacuate a handful of people to a shelter, that should they need to evacuate the entire island they had an agreement with Austin to shelter 4000 people (pretty good for a city of 58,000 and an island much higher than that), that they didn't want to take a chance on wasting tax-payers money by calling for a mandatory evacuation on Wednesday.

I agree that the rescuers are the ones being put at risk by the decisions made by the residents of Galveston island, but I think those who want to participate in name-calling should spread it around to all who deserve it."

For anyone interested, here is a link to the State of Texas Hurricane Evacuation and Mass Care Plan (see pg 16, item 4)
(ftp://ftp.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/plan_state/hurr_evac_shelter_state_plan.pdf

I will also say that it's very easy to point fingers after the fact. My energies to date have been to support Paul, Pat, and SJ as best I can from where I am. There may come a time when the best energies are spent in looking back and, although I put these links out there for those who would like to grab them, I'm committed to continue my efforts in ways to move forward and support those who still so desperately need it.
Member Since: September 12, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1644
701. conchygirl
1:21 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Oh... Good morning, folks.

If you have not not gone back and read the blog from late last night, I suggest you do so.-- Excellent discussions.

Gotta get some coffee (death before dishonor, nothing before coffee)
Nice, quiet day yesterday and today is another day of drama.
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
700. Orcasystems
1:21 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE: StormW
Like others I respect StormW's knowledge, his willingness to help all(regardless of our knowledge level), and his generosity with his time

StormW,
I want to know who you are and what you did you do with the real StormW
It is hard to reconcile the StormW that I thought I knew with someone immature enough to remove his blog on the basis that it is not a "featured" blog.
Gawd, I hope I am not seeing you promoting a "put StormW back as a Feature Blog" campaign - it is undignified and beneath you to do so.




I have to admit, this is the most logical post I have seen on this whole subject to date.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
699. KEHCharleston
1:20 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Oh... Good morning, folks.

If you have not not gone back and read the blog from late last night, I suggest you do so.-- Excellent discussions.

Gotta get some coffee (death before dishonor, nothing before coffee)
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
698. KEHCharleston
1:18 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
RE: StormW
Like others I respect StormW's knowledge, his willingness to help all(regardless of our knowledge level), and his generosity with his time

StormW,
I want to know who you are and what you did you do with the real StormW
It is hard to reconcile the StormW that I thought I knew with someone immature enough to remove his blog on the basis that it is not a "featured" blog.
Gawd, I hope I am not seeing you promoting a "put StormW back as a Feature Blog" campaign - it is undignified and beneath you to do so.


Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
697. biff4ugo
1:13 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Thanks to all of you working on the relief efforts. I have friends in Houston and they are truly friends in need.

Blessings
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 1492
696. Patrap
1:13 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
IMAGE:Link

SENIOR AIRMAN BRANDON SMITH CONDUCTS SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS. - U.S. Air Force Senior Airman Brandon Smith, a pararescueman assigned to the 331st Air Expeditionary Group, conducts search and rescue operations for residents in Galveston, Texas, on Sept. 13, 2008, following the landfall of Hurricane Ike. DoD photo by Staff Sgt. James L. Harper Jr., U.S. Air Force. (Released) Hi-Res | News Photo Archive
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125421
695. sporteguy03
1:12 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting coneofdoom:
Oh, PLEASE PLEASE DON'T LEAVE StormW. How can we make it life without you? I'll just kill myself if you leave. How can the WU people be so cruel over such silly emails?

PLEASE, I'm more addicted to your updates than I am coffee. I'll cry every day without you.


That is a bit extreme, wouldn't you say?

StormW you should continue to blog whether you are featured blogger or not you do put a lot of effort into your forecasts. Whether you are right or wrong in them you do your best. As far as the other stuff goes that is between WU Admin and you as I do not know enough on it to comment further.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5120
694. NEwxguy
1:11 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting conchygirl:
Rain is probably better than snow this early, I imagine. :)


Oh yes,as the season goes on,everytime it rains people start saying Good Thing it wasn't snow.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15046
693. conchygirl
1:09 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:
More rain here in New England,7th day in a row,but things are looking up for a while,definitely will feel like fall this weekend.
Rain is probably better than snow this early, I imagine. :)
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
692. NEwxguy
1:05 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
More rain here in New England,7th day in a row,but things are looking up for a while,definitely will feel like fall this weekend.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15046
691. coneofdoom
1:05 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
Oh, PLEASE PLEASE DON'T LEAVE StormW. How can we make it life without you? I'll just kill myself if you leave. How can the WU people be so cruel over such silly emails?

PLEASE, I'm more addicted to your updates than I am coffee. I'll cry every day without you.
690. ncleclerc
1:04 PM GMT on October 02, 2008
StormW....please don't pull your blog. We need your input in here North Carolina. Stay with us!!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 108

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.