Kyle pulls its punch; Laura forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on September 29, 2008

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Hurricane Kyle raced ashore over southwestern Nova Scotia last night at about 9 pm AST, rated as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds and a 985 mb pressure. Kyle did generate one hurricane force wind gust--77 mph at Baccaro Point, on the extreme southernmost point of Nova Scotia--but it is questionable whether it really was a hurricane over Nova Scotia. Kyle weakened dramatically right at landfall. The storm passed just west of Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, which measured a pressure of 988 mb at 9 pm AST last night. Even though Yarmouth was on the strong (right) side of Kyle where the highest winds should have been, the airport measured top winds of only 30 mph, gusting to 50 mph. Not even minor damage was reported there, according to news reports. Buoy 44038, which also measured a 988 mb pressure, but was located on the weak (left) side of Kyle as it came ashore, measured top sustained winds of 36 mph. Kyle generated some very high waves offshore--waves heights of 36 feet were observed at Buoy 44011 about 200 miles east of Hyannis, MA yesterday afternoon. Kyle caused minor flooding in Maine, where up to seven inches of rain was reported in Hancock County (Figure 1). Several roads flooded, but no rivers reached flood stage in Maine.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from Hurricane Kyle. Isolated rain amounts up to seven inches were reported in Maine.


Figure 2. Radar image of Kyle as it approached St. John, New Brunswick. Image credit: Environment Canada.

Yucatan disturbance
Thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system over the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent Western Caribbean waters have diminished today, and tropical storm formation is not likely in this region through Tuesday. A moist flow of tropical air will continue along a trough of low pressure extending from the Yucatan Peninsula over South Florida for the next two days, bringing rainfall amounts of up to two inches over much of South Florida. Late this week, the NOGAPS, UKMET, and ECMWF models predict a tropical depression may form over the Western Caribbean.

Subtropical Storm Laura
Subtropical Storm Laura formed this morning over the middle North Atlantic, but is not a threat to any land areas. Visible satellite images show that Laura has most of its heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed several hundred miles from the center, a trait characteristic of subtropical storms. However, Laura is over waters of about 26°C, which is warm enough to support a fully tropical storm. Indeed, the latest satellite images show heavy thunderstorms beginning to wrap around the center, and Laura could be a hurricane by Tuesday morning. By Wednesday, Laura should get caught up by the jet stream and recurved out to sea without affecting any land areas.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Laura.

I'll have an update on the Hurricane Ike portlight.org charity relief efforts in my next post, which will be Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Kyle's Wave Action@ Easton's Beach # 12 (RIWXPhoto)
After being knocked around early on by Hurricane Kyle-induced waves, this guy decided to give it up!
Hurricane Kyle's Wave Action@ Easton's Beach # 12

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973. LakeShadow
2:15 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Last year the first Snow was Nov 6th. Last snow of the year was March 20th. Only 4.5 months...not bad. Word has it that this year will be colder, though. last winter was rather mild with a lot of mid-winter thaws. I'm going to bet on snow from Oct - April this year. Mainly because Murphy and his laws dont like me and being pregnant and then soon lugging around an infant, its gonna be a brutal winter for sure.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
972. indianrivguy
2:13 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting LakeShadow:


Ahh... winter driving short term memory! We suffer from that here in Buffalo. We can drive in 8 inches of snow and be ok. Its that 1st half inch that causes all the spin-offs and chain reation crashes on the freeway... cars in ditches all over the place...most of them 4x4 SUV's.


the good news is we play you in Toronto this year.. no friggen blizzards there anyway. :)

cmon cooler weather.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2516
970. npenta519
2:11 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:


Got a job only 4 miles from home,don't have to deal with that too much any more.


Lucky lucky. I drive all over hell and back, so yeah, I get it all the time. Accidents, spinouts, emergency personnel...I drive over a large area of MA and most of NH including the Lakes Region. It's so aggravating for those first few storms.
969. Orcasystems
2:10 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
new blog
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
968. Chicklit
2:09 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Yes, winter is the time it's worthwhile to be living in the tropics! Here in Central Florida we get a few cold fronts, but generally, weather is mild and people-perfect.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11168
967. NEwxguy
2:07 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting LakeShadow:


Ahh... winter driving short term memory! We suffer from that here in Buffalo. We can drive in 8 inches of snow and be ok. Its that 1st half inch that causes all the spin-offs and chain reation crashes on the freeway... cars in ditches all over the place...most of them 4x4 SUV's.


Got a job only 4 miles from home,don't have to deal with that too much any more.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15580
966. LakeShadow
2:03 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting npenta519:


Not unheard of.

But yeah, would be nice and pretty. The first snowfall is all I can take. It looks so white and peaceful.

And then I wake up and have to drive with 1400 other people who have forgotten what NE in winter is like. Then I'm just wishing for April to come.


Ahh... winter driving short term memory! We suffer from that here in Buffalo. We can drive in 8 inches of snow and be ok. Its that 1st half inch that causes all the spin-offs and chain reation crashes on the freeway... cars in ditches all over the place...most of them 4x4 SUV's.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
965. Cotillion
2:03 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
We don't typically have snow till January, and we haven't had a real good snowfall in a few years. Warming and all that!

That said, instead of a lot of snow falling, we have it in weird periods. Just the other year, we had snow in late April. That was peculiar.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
964. Orcasystems
1:59 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting LakeShadow:
post 953 is ban worthy, IMO


Might be.. don't know.. can't see it :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
963. Orcasystems
1:59 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting LakeShadow:


umm...late October- Mid November on that. 2 Years ago the first LES event was Oct 12th...


I am praying for you lake..I have been asking for first week of October... I know how much you like the math :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
962. LakeShadow
1:58 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
post 953 is ban worthy, IMO
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
960. LakeShadow
1:57 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:


well thats when you start your lake effect snows isn't it?


umm...late October- Mid November on that. 2 Years ago the first LES event was Oct 12th...
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
959. NEwxguy
1:56 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


If you want to have the ability to comment, you might want to be a bit more polite about it. Right now you are about one away from me not being able to see them.


He's already on my list,please don't quote him
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15580
958. sebastianflorida
1:55 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
I said all I have to say about this subject. In fact, the season of storms is over! I must go and concentrate on other things for the next 10 months. BYE ALL
Member Since: August 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 679
957. Orcasystems
1:55 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting sebastianflorida:
It has been a long season of seeing these idiotic posts from Taz, I try to ignore, but I guess I am drawn to them in amazement of how bad someone can be with spelling and grammar.


then put him on ignore.. problem solved.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
956. conchygirl
1:55 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting sebastianflorida:
It has been a long season of seeing these idiotic posts from Taz, I try to ignore, but I guess I am drawn to them in amazement of how bad someone can be with spelling and grammar.
When English is not your native language, there are more challenges.
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
954. Orcasystems
1:50 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting sebastianflorida:
And I need your permission to comment on retarded posts?


If you want to have the ability to comment, you might want to be a bit more polite about it. Right now you are about one away from me not being able to see them.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
952. Drakoen
1:48 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Shear naturally increases with the troughs coming down. The season doesn't wind down for the U.S.A because those same troughs are pulling the storms that form in the Caribbean poleward were they typically accelerate eastward.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
951. npenta519
1:48 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:


actually like to see some for christmas


Not unheard of.

But yeah, would be nice and pretty. The first snowfall is all I can take. It looks so white and peaceful.

And then I wake up and have to drive with 1400 other people who have forgotten what NE in winter is like. Then I'm just wishing for April to come.
950. NEwxguy
1:48 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting LakeShadow:


More like mid-late November.


well thats when you start your lake effect snows isn't it?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15580
948. LakeShadow
1:45 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:


lol,wishful thinking,but not very realistic


More like mid-late November.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
947. NEwxguy
1:43 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting LakeShadow:


that's mighty optimistic, there!


actually like to see some for christmas
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15580
945. NEwxguy
1:42 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting LakeShadow:


that's mighty optimistic, there!


lol,wishful thinking,but not very realistic
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15580
942. LakeShadow
1:39 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:


maybe by January?


that's mighty optimistic, there!
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2134
941. Tazmanian
1:39 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Laura looks more like Vince with a eye


Vince






Laura






dont they both look a like right now???
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114709
940. Orcasystems
1:39 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting WxLogic:
Ok... Breaking News!!!... j/k.

Well, there seems to be indication based on surface analasys that a 1012MB low is starting to develop 10 to 20 NM N of Honduras or 100N or so E of Belize... for those Geographically challenged folks... hehe.

Let see if this low persists as NAM, CMC, and NOGAPS are clearly indicating.


Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
939. usa777
1:38 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting LakeShadow:
Grizzly Bear scat has bells in it and smells like pepper

Like the bells of the people wearing them as to avoid surprising the bear?

and it takes some kind of true outdoorsman to go from pile to pile of scat smalling for pepper, eh?

LOL!

morning folks!

lol...Im an idiot. I didnt read that close enough. Must be all that beer still in my blood from monday night football.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
938. WxLogic
1:36 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Ok... Breaking News!!!... j/k.

Well, there seems to be indication based on surface analasys that a 1012MB low is starting to develop 10 to 20 NM N of Honduras or 100N or so E of Belize... for those Geographically challenged folks... hehe.

Let see if this low persists as NAM, CMC, and NOGAPS are clearly indicating.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4927
937. Tazmanian
1:35 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Eastern Pacific and the Atlantic both had 12 names storms this year
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114709
936. npenta519
1:33 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:


me too,but you'll most likely get some before me.


Thats a distinct possibility.

However I'm moving to Central MA in 2 weeks, so who knows??
934. NEwxguy
1:31 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting npenta519:


God I hope no snow anytime soon...

Snow is one thing I CAN wait for.


me too,but you'll most likely get some before me.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15580
933. Tazmanian
1:30 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Eastern Pacific hurricane season is done for sure
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114709
932. sporteguy03
1:27 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting conchygirl:
Morning All:
Nice rainy day here in Melbourne but more cool weather on the way. Believe the consensus is that we are done with the tropical weather. Yeah - enough other stuff to concentrate on right now.


Not quite done.....yet despite what you may hear.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5152
931. Orcasystems
1:27 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Blog Update
All Systems ... Atlantic
Subtropical Storm ... Laura
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean Blob
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean/GOM
Present Satellite picture Atlantic Train
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
CMC & ... Florida Part 1
CMC & ... Caribbean
CMC & ... Florida Part 2 & more
CMC & ... Possible sniff of things to come
CMC 00Z..
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
930. TheTracker08
1:25 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
nice wave coming off of africa, but ofcourse, it will die! uhh, how boring
929. npenta519
1:25 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:


maybe by January?


God I hope no snow anytime soon...

Snow is one thing I CAN wait for.
928. Tazmanian
1:25 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
922. NEwxguy 6:21 AM PDT on September 30, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
wont be long now be for we start talking about snow


maybe by January?



try more like late oct and 1st part of nov
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114709
927. ShenValleyFlyFish
1:23 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
LOL on the Grizz scat. Can't believe folks bit on that old hook. Usually posted under Yellowstone or Alaskan header.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
926. Patrap
1:23 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
GOES-12 WV loop ,with Dry Air Shaded Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
925. yonzabam
1:23 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
I see the NHC are predicting Laura will arrive here in Scotland on Sunday with sustained winds of 50 knots.

I think when a storm goes extratropical and heads towards the 'wrong' side of the Atlantic, they basically lose interest in it and pick numbers out of the air.

I can tell you from personal experience, that these systems only very rarely maintain tropical storm force winds when they arrive here. Usually, they're no more than a balmy breeze.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2892
924. RobDaHood
1:23 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Also, it didn't "cool down" up here until towards the end of October for the past few years so it's also nice to be able to save some money and turn off the air conditioner the past few weeks...........


Haven't turned the AC off yet, but have noticed it kicking in a lot less the past couple weeks. Love that 'cause Aug & Sept are the worst for us power wise.

We'll know the season is offically over whe IKE changes the lyrics on his blog! :o)

Must stop the chat and work now...
Have a great day everyone!
-rob
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
923. Patrap
1:22 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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