Little change to Kyle; Western Caribbean disturbance may threaten Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:29 PM GMT on September 27, 2008

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Tropical Storm Kyle has intensified to a 70 mph tropical storm in the face of about 20 knots of hostile wind shear. However, visible satellite loops show little change in the appearance of Kyle today, and for now the shear is keeping the storm just below hurricane strength. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission's center fix at 10:37 am EDT found that the pressure had risen to 999 mb, which is quite high for a strong tropical storm. Top surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument were in the 60-70 mph range.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Kyle.

The forecast
Wind shear is forecast to increase to 25 knots today and remain at least 25 knots for the remainder of Kyle's life. That is high shear, but the upper-level winds over Kyle creating this shear will also be spreading out horizontally as they pass over the storm. When upper-level winds diverge like this, it creates a suction effect that acts to intensify the updrafts in the thunderstorms beneath. Thus, this "upper-level divergence" will act to intensify Kyle. It remains to be seen whether the upper-level divergence will be strong enough to overcome the shear and allow Kyle to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane, as the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS intensity models have consistently been predicting. Given the storm's current struggle to organize, I doubt Kyle will ever attain hurricane strength.

Kyle's storm surge
Storm surge should not be a major issue with Kyle. If it makes landfall in the Maine/New Brunswick region as a Category 1 hurricane, it would likely generate a storm surge in the 3-5 foot range, according to NOAA's SLOSH model. Given that the range between low tide and high tide is at least 12 feet in the region, Kyle would have to hit very close to high tide to cause any storm surge flooding. Kyle's likely impact as a tropical storm makes surge flooding problems improbable. Hurricane Edna of 1954, which hit just west of Eastport, Maine, as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds, generated a storm surge of just 3.4 feet at Eastport. If Kyle hits Nova Scotia as a Category 1 hurricane or tropical storm, a storm surge of 1-3 feet is likely. Hurricane Juan of 2003, which hit Halifax, Nova Scotia as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds, generated a storm surge of 4.9 feet in Halifax.

Kyle's winds
Kyle's cone of uncertainty covers the eastern coast of Maine and the western half of the coast of Nova Scotia. Recent model runs have trended to take Kyle a little more to the west, near the Maine/New Brunswick border. given the tendency of the models in recent runs to flip-flop, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the forecast track shift back to Nova Scotia in future runs. This province will probably get Kyle's worst winds and rain, since wind shear is keeping Kyle's heaviest thunderstorms on the east side of the storm. My best guess is a landfall in western Nova Scotia as a tropical storm with 45-55 mph winds. The latest runs of the GFDL and HWRF models bring tropical storm-force winds of 40 mph to Cape Cod, Nantucket, and the entire Maine coast, as well as western Nova Scotia and eastern New Brunswick. The strongest Kyle is likely to be at landfall is a 65 mph tropical storm, as forecast by the GFDL model.

Kyle's rains
Kyle's main threat is heavy rain. Kyle's rains will primarily affect Nova Scotia and New Brunswick at landfall on Monday morning. However, Kyle should pull copious amounts of tropical moisture and the remains of the unnamed storm that hit South Carolina Thursday northwards into Canada and northern New England. This will create potential flooding problems early next week in the region. NOAA is forecasting up to five inches of rain could fall in New England over the next five days (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for the 5-day period ending 8 am Thursday 10/2/08. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Links to follow
Provincetown, MA weather
Bar Harbor, ME weather
Yarmouth, Nova Scotia weather

Yucatan disturbance may threaten western Florida next week
A 1008 mb low pressure system in the Western Caribbean, just east of Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, has the potential for some slow development over the next few days. Visible satellite images show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that is currently not increasing in size. QuikSCAT from this morning showed top winds near 45 mph offshore of Belize in the heaviest thunderstorm activity, but no sign of a surface circulation. Wind shear is about 10-20 knots over the region, which is low enough to allow some slow development. NHC is giving this system a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Most of the models predict the low will start to develop over the next few days, although interaction with the landmass of the Yucatan Peninsula will be a problem for it. The low should lift northeastwards beginning Monday, and the west coast of Florida can anticipate heavy rains from this system by Wednesday. NOAA is predicting up to four inches of rain may fall over southern Florida (Figure 2). Due to the very high wind shear over the northern Gulf of Mexico, this storm will not be a threat to the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward.


Figure 3. Super Typhoon Jangmi at 3:30 am EDT Saturday, 9/27/08. Image credit: NOAA.

Super Typhoon Jangmi takes aim at Taiwan
Super Typhoon Jangmi put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification yesterday, and now stands as an extremely dangerous Category 4 Super Typhoon with 155 mph winds. Jangmi is expected to hit Taiwan Sunday as a Category 4 typhoon. Jangmi is tied with May's Super Typhoon Rammasun as the strongest tropical cyclone on the planet this year. There have not yet been any Category 5 storms anywhere on Earth this year, which is unusual.

The Hurricane Ike relief effort continues
Thanks to everyone who has contributed to the portlight.org charity! We raised enough money to send another truck with relief supplies to Winnie and Bridge City, Texas, where traditional relief efforts have fallen short. Wunderground member Presslord (AKA Paul Timmons, Jr.), who is coordinating this effort along with Patrap and StormJunkie, has announced that if we raise an additional $10,000 mark, he will pose in a dress for our wunderphoto gallery. We're up to $4800 so far. The effort has raised a grand total of $25,000 so far. Great work, everyone!


Figure 3. The town of Bridge City was inundated with a massive storm surge even though it was far displaced from Ike's landfall point. This speaks to just how massive Ike was. The people of Bridge City, Winnie, and other small towns in Ike's path will need help for a long time to come: www.portlight.org. Image credit: Storm Junkie.

You can read more about the effort at at stormjunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters

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807. AirTrafficMan
4:49 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
LOL...my wu family is as dysfunctional as my own!!! Ok...back to the purpose of this blog.

It is a rare day when I have to talk to NavCanada (the Canadian air traffic control folks) about hurricanes/tropical storm impact to aviation in their airspace. Due to cloud height on convective activity associated with Kyle I believe the traffic destined to Europe via the North Atlantic Tracks will be affected. I hate to say it but I am starting to wish for snow events!!!!!
Member Since: September 8, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 187
806. hurricanemaniac123
4:48 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 688
804. Cotillion
4:47 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
A new blog at this juncture would be a welcome remedy.

From the NHC discussion, they're getting less bullish on Kyle, hinting it may not even be a hurricane anymore with the extratropical process already beginning. Fairly stable weakening is forecast which is welcome news.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
803. BKeen12
4:47 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:
Ahhh serenity :)
Lot of missing posts.. but at least I can read the weather and not get mad :)

I thinks that surfmom is going to have her hands full in the next week or so.. that Caribbean blob is going to Tampa after it leaves Cuba


are you talking about the low near the yucatan or act 2 after it??
801. KEHCharleston
4:46 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
RE: 797. presslord

I will send you send you a copy of the paypal transaction details (w/o my account info, naturally) to update your records. I would rather send it email, so if you WUmail me with your email - it will be on the way.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
799. surfmom
4:45 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
AFternoon all. RE:762 Orca - LOL Yup looks like I'm going to have my hands full this week, figures the spouse will be away on business. Always seem to get what I ask for....but then I have to pay LOL...hopefully --at the very least....I'll get some good surf.

piecing together the humanblog story this AM -- my heart hurts. Why I love my four-leggeds - far more honest
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
798. CapeObserver
4:37 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
people on iggy list:

* Ike
* Bay


Is publishing this on the blog necessary? I think not.
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
796. cchsweatherman
4:28 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Now that I have done further analysis on the Yucatan disturbance, its rather disorganized at the moment as there may not be a closed surface circulation as I had stated earlier and the center remains over Belize at this time. The Yucatan disturbance is struggling with dry air and stronger wind shear on the north side which has prevented any further organization from occuring. This may take much longer than I had anticipated for this all to come together into a tropical depression.

Photobucket
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
795. Orcasystems
4:27 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Quoting Cotillion:


Thanks to both of you, for that informative insight and elaboration.


It even scared me.. I actually understood it.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
794. Cotillion
4:26 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Quoting sullivanweather:
Expanding on what Michael posted in comment #773, although SST's are cooler around 40°N and generally below the 26°C threshold for tropical cyclone formation, the atmosphere at this latitude is cooler, which allows for these initially cold core storms to gradually acquire a warm core relative to their environment. These cyclones are usually much more shallow than their purely tropical counterparts and can withstand bouts of high winds at upper levels as these storms are generally located below the 300mb level.


Thanks to both of you, for that informative insight and elaboration.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
793. KEHCharleston
4:25 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
RE:790. sullivanweather

Thanks, I was wondering the same thing as Michael...

This is an ahhhh... that makes sense moment
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
790. sullivanweather
4:17 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Expanding on what Michael posted in comment #773, although SST's are cooler around 40°N and generally below the 26°C threshold for tropical cyclone formation, the atmosphere at this latitude is cooler, which allows for these initially cold core storms to gradually acquire a warm core relative to their environment. These cyclones are usually much more shallow than their purely tropical counterparts and can withstand bouts of high winds at upper levels as these storms are generally located below the 300mb level.
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
788. congaline
4:17 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Where is my last post? Did I say something wrong?
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 337
787. StormJunkie
4:16 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Quoting IKE:


TMI.....this is not going to end nicely and looks terrible.


Ike, what will not end is our support for the folks in Texas. I posted a response to all of this earlier and will waste no more time on it. I also just posted my last response to this issue in my blog if you are interested in reading it.

There are more important things for us to be working on, like the logistics of getting the next load of supplies in to the area. So that said, I am off to continue the effort that is truly important. Thanks for everyone's support and as usual, we will continue to provide updates on our actions.

John
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16510
786. Enola
4:15 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Quoting btwntx08:
...this is my 4th post eaten

The blog is hungry this morning :)
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 269
785. Orcasystems
4:15 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Invest95L
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
782. Enola
4:13 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Storms regularly move as far north as where Kyle and 95L are; one storm was even still tropical when it reached the Arctic Circle! The current location of 95L is also very close to where Jerry formed last year (in fact, Jerry formed pretty much the same way).

Thank you! :)
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 269
780. sullivanweather
4:12 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
test,,,
Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
779. Beachfoxx
4:08 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Where have my posts gone?
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29384
778. cchsweatherman
4:07 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Now that I have done further analysis on the Yucatan disturbance, its rather disorganized at the moment as there may not be a closed surface circulation as I had stated earlier and the center remains over Belize at this time. The Yucatan disturbance is struggling with dry air and stronger wind shear on the north side which has prevented any further organization from occuring. This may take much longer than I had anticipated for this all to come together into a tropical depression.

Photobucket
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
777. IKE
4:07 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Trough at 96 hrs. on the 12Z GFS....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
776. CaneEater
4:07 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Let us all learn from this. Forgiveness is in the heart. Hatred and anger is from evil. Thank you to all for your contributions and efforts. Remeber the cause that is before us, however you contribute.

May GOD Bless you all.
775. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:02 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Tropical Cyclone Warning #37 (1500z 28SEPT)
===========================================

Subject: CATEGORY THREE TYPHOON OVERLAND TAIWAN

At 0:00 AM JST, Typhoon Jangmi (960 hPa) located at 24.4N 121.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts up to 105 knots. The storm is reported as moving north-northwest at 7 knots.

JMA Dvorak Intensity:

Storm-Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center in east quadrant
50 NM from the center is west quadrant

Gale-Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 27.8N 122.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
45 HRS: 29.5N 126.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
69 HRS: 31.0N 135.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45290
774. Notablogger
4:02 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Quoting keywestbrat:
wow the spin in the middle atlantic is huge, will it get stronger and where do we think it will go?

Link


How come this huge area is being ignored on this blog? (I mean other than all the chaff)Is it the "95L" that is eing referred to, and if so why doesn't it show up on the Tropic graphics along with Kyle?
772. IKE
3:56 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Forecast for Montgomery,AL for next week...

Wednesday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.

Wednesday Night
Clear. Lows in the lower 50s.

Thursday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.

Thursday Night
Clear. Lows in the lower 50s.

Friday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.

Friday Night
Clear. Lows in the mid 50s.

Saturday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
771. stormdude77
3:56 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
It looks like there are a couple of ''spins'' around the Yucatan...we'll see which one wins to become the ''main center''...
770. Orcasystems
3:52 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Quoting bluenosedave:


I'm in Yarmouth, NS. Not looking forward to the next 24 hours.


I need you to do me a favor.. drive up to Halifax.. and protect Chris Brothers from Storm damage and looters.. while your there.. ship me any excess TNT pepperoni they have.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
769. bcn
3:51 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Spain low quikscat
Member Since: August 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 62
768. billy305
3:51 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Quoting IKE:


I see a spin near the north coast of the Yucatan.
I also see one on the east coast of the yucatan under that blob.
767. IKE
3:50 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Do you see the spin down near Chetumal ( but off the East Coast of the Yucatan)?
On the GOM visible there seems to be a nice spin down there just off the coast.


I see a spin near the north coast of the Yucatan.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
765. Sfloridacat5
3:48 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Quoting IKE:
NCEP shows a 1008 mb low over the Yucatan.


Do you see the spin down near Chetumal ( but off the East Coast of the Yucatan)?
On the GOM visible there seems to be a nice spin down there just off the coast.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6803
764. stormdude77
3:47 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Quoting sngalla:


Is this the area that some are saying is headed towards FL?


Yes
763. bluenosedave
3:46 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Quoting zoomiami:
Also see that the track for Kyle has moved more to the west - seems that the biggest affect for the NE will be the rain.

Have watched the wind warnings for most of Maine, not much in the way of winds.

Anyone on here from Nova Scotia?


I'm in Yarmouth, NS. Not looking forward to the next 24 hours.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 361
762. Orcasystems
3:46 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Ahhh serenity :)
Lot of missing posts.. but at least I can read the weather and not get mad :)

I thinks that surfmom is going to have her hands full in the next week or so.. that Caribbean blob is going to Tampa after it leaves Cuba
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
760. iluvjess
3:45 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
"Ignoring" the problem and discussion of the same only raises more doubt.
759. PanhandleChuck
3:44 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Holy Shitake mushrooms Batman --- forget "As The World Turns", we have "As The Blog Spins"
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1412
758. IpswichWeatherCenter
3:42 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Quoting bcn:
The third atlantic low (Kyle, 95L and Spain):




Aka: Spain still learning to construct hurricanes (link)


If it moves West... we might see another invest.
Member Since: April 27, 2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097
757. IKE
3:42 PM GMT on September 28, 2008
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
people on iggy list:

* Ike
* Bay


Thanks.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.