Kyle intensifies, heads north towards the Maine/Canada border

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on September 26, 2008

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Tropical Storm Kyle continues chugging northwards towards Nova Scotia, Canada. Visible satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some, and the Hurricane Hunters measured surface winds near 55 mph early this morning. However, Kyle is experiencing wind shear of 15-20 knots that is keeping any heavy thunderstorm activity from developing on its west side. Unless the shear relaxes, allowing Kyle's heavy thunderstorms to wrap all the way around the center, intensification into a hurricane will be difficult.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Kyle.

The forecast
Wind shear is forecast to drop slightly over the next 24 hours, to 10-20 knots. This gives Kyle a short window of time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. By Saturday afternoon, wind shear is forecast to increase to 25-35 knots, and the sea surface temperatures plunge from 26°C to 15°C. Kyle should weaken by 10-20 mph before landfall. The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFDL model has Kyle hitting the Maine/New Brunswick border as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The HWRF has the same landfall location, but foresees only 50 mph winds. A landfall in this region as a Category 1 hurricane would likely generate a storm surge in the 3-5 foot range, according to NOAA's SLOSH model. A more easterly landfall in Nova Scotia is also a good possibility, as foreseen by some of the other reliable computer models. My best guess is a landfall in western Nova Scotia as a tropical storm with 50-60 mph winds. The west side of Kyle will remain relatively thunderstorm-free at landfall, due to strong upper-level winds from the west creating high wind shear. According to the forecast wind radius from NHC, tropical storm force winds of 39 mph and higher will miss Massachusetts, but may affect eastern Maine. Tropical storm force winds are also expected to miss Bermuda. (Use the wundermap with "wind radius" turned on to see the expected radius of tropical storm force winds).

Kyle's main threat is heavy rain. Kyle's rains will primarily affect Nova Scotia and New Brunswick at landfall on Monday morning. However, Kyle should pull copious amounts of tropical moisture and the remains of the unnamed storm that hit South Carolina last night northwards into Canada and northern New England. This will create potential serious flooding problems early next week in the region. NOAA is forecasting up to eight inches of rain could fall in New England over the next five days (Figure 2). The UKMET model is forecasting that Kyle will stall after landfall. If this forecast verifies, there is the possibility that extremely heavy rains in excess of twelve inches will fall over northern New England, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia next week. Near-record flooding with heavy damage would likely result. However, the other models do not go along with this scenario, and rain amounts in the 6-8 inch range are more likely for northern New England, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for the 5-day period ending 8 am Wednesday 10/1/08. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Unnamed storm hits South Carolina
The unnamed storm that moved ashore over South Carolina/North Carolina last night continues to bring heavy rain and strong winds all along the eastern U.S. The storm generated one tornado, a twister that touched down near Onslow Beach, NC at 8:15 pm EDT Thursday. No damage was reported. The storm dumped 4.16" of rain in Wilmington, NC, setting a new daily rainfall record for that city. A storm surge of four feet was observed in Carteret County, NC, and the road to the North Carolina Outer Banks was flooded by the ocean at several points during the storm. Evidence suggests the storm was probably subtropical or tropical at landfall, and could have received the name Laura. However, one of the criteria for getting a name is that a storm must persist as a subtropical or tropical storm for a "reasonable period of time". This season, it seems that NHC has been waiting longer than in the recent past (the 1990s and 2000s) to give storms names. However, in the 1970s and 1980s, a "reasonable period of time" was usually judged to be a day or longer. I doubt that yesterday's storm would have gotten a name during Nell Frank's tenure as director of NHC from 1974-1987. Thus, yesterday's decision not to name this storm is probably consistent with how things would have been done back in that era. There will always be a grey area in this regard, and NHC will inevitably get complaints about decisions to name or not name storms. If they had named this system Laura, they would have gotten complaints that are too quick to give names to storms that do not deserve them, and thus are artificially inflating tropical storm statistics to make it appear that global warming is increasing the number of tropical storms. Last night's unnamed storm fell solidly in this grey area, and there is no clear-cut "right" answer as to whether the storm deserved a name or not.

Middle Atlantic disturbance
An area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic, near 12N 40W, has a modest region of heavy thunderstorms. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated surface circulation and top winds in the 20-30 mph range. Wind shear is 10-20 knots, but is expected to increase to 20-30 knots Saturday and increase further on Sunday, which should destroy the struggling circulation. NHC is giving this system a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
An area of disturbed weather has developed in the southern Gulf of Mexico, just west of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Visible satellite images show a modest but growing area of heavy thunderstorms moving east-southeast, towards the Yucatan Peninsula. Wind shear is about 15 knots over the region, which is marginal for development. The system should move ashore over the Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday before development into a tropical depression can occur. NHC is giving this system a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Early next week, we will have to watch the waters on either side of the Yucatan for possible development.

The Hurricane Ike relief effort continues
Thanks to everyone who has contributed to the portlight.org charity! We raised enough money to send another truck with relief supplies to Winnie and Bridge City, Texas, where traditional relief efforts have fallen short. Wunderground member Presslord (AKA Paul Timmons, Jr.), who is coordinating this effort, has announced that if we raise an additional $10,000 mark, he will pose in a dress for our wunderphoto gallery. We're up to $2500 so far.


Figure 3. The town of Bridge City was inundated with a massive storm surge even though it was far displaced from Ike's landfall point. This speaks to just how massive Ike was. The people of Bridge City, Winnie, and other small towns in Ike's path will need help for a long time to come: www.portlight.org. Image credit: Storm Junkie.

You can read more about the effort at at stormjunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters

My Backyard :-( (cbbeachbum)
A little flooding from our N'easter. 6:10pm 9/25
My Backyard :-(
Ocean City Inlet Sept 2008 Nor Easter (wildbillstikihut)
Ocean City Inlet Sept 2008 Nor Easter

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343. TheTracker08
7:13 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
OK GUYS!!!!! do you all think that the systems will develop? if so why or why not? lol
342. TheTracker08
7:09 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Thank hurracajun!!! funny!!!! lolololol!!! but you have too admit!! it is food for thought! lol
341. TheTracker08
7:07 PM GMT on September 30, 2008
Thank you isiah23!!!!!! Atleast someone out there understands me!!!! You will make an excellent Meteorologist!!1
340. scooter127
8:51 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
94L has brought very much needed and appreciated rains to our area today (WNC and Upstate SC). A little breezy at times, but in general, a light to moderate, continual rain event.
339. Hurricajun
8:50 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
It can make my butt look big... just needs to leave my chest alone!! BTW, can you imagine kissing someone with a hurricane splintered tongue?
Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
338. melly
8:48 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
SFLgirl... I will have a great deal on a battery powered 5" screen TV February 17th.
337. SFLGirl1
8:46 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting Tigerose:
GBlet, the small battery TV's set up for digital are close to 300 right now, Should be out with some MUCH cheaper ones after the first of the year. They are great when you lose power for short period of time.


I just got a 7" protable digital TV a month ago at Best Buy for $159..works great and picks up about 70 hd and digital channels
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
336. melly
8:43 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
surfmom....Silverbacks beat theirs chests, Drink Bud, Drive 4WD Fords, have a Pit Bull, and call their girlfriends "Oldlady" I know that for a fact. I used to be married to one.. "Used To" in quotes
335. surfmom
8:40 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
I thought silverbacks were the Alpha Gorilla's---
the Patriarch

I call older/just before alpha pack leaders young bucks....they don't quite have their full antlers yet, but they are constantly head butting.... or testing the waters 24/7
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
334. surfmom
8:38 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
321Bonedog - I'm tough, but that would KILL me. Quickly! I have learned that under 50degrees is just not good for me. I get sick, or I just start shaking -- there ain't enough neoprene (other then a dry suit) to keep me warm.
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
333. melly
8:38 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
surfmom.Here in Palm Beach county we don't call them young bucks....We refer them as
"Silverbacks"
332. NEwxguy
8:37 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
We're now in a flood advisory in eastern parts,really raining right now.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 883 Comments: 15862
331. Seastep
8:36 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting Bonedog:
fire checking all the models didnt see any threat for florida on any of them


Except for nogaps which has something on the tip of Yucatan 5 days from now.... (insert your opinion of unreliablity of model and also so far out here)
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
330. MissNadia
8:36 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
new blog
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3002
329. surfmom
8:35 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Domestics and young buck males in need - fishhook in the back reeling me into the kitchen. Wishing for Kyle to snuff himself out in the Atlantic and a good enough, not bad enough storm to throw some waves my way. Take Care All - continued thoughts to those who are recovering from Ike. www.portlight.org - direct donations to people in need
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
328. Bonedog
8:34 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
LOL Orca yea havent done a new blog in a long while.

Now that i am able to acess this site again from work I will be sure to start the Nor'Easter blogs again
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
327. Orcasystems
8:33 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting melly:
You guys make me laugh,

By the way: "Does this hurricane make my butt look big"


Umm depends.. you front into the wind.... umm or back into the wind?

I have been married long enough not to have to say.. No dear.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
326. TheMom
8:33 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting melly:
You guys make me laugh,

By the way: "Does this hurricane make my butt look big"
ROTFLSHIPMP!!!! A coworker came in right as I read that and just busted out laughing in her face...
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 672
325. Bonedog
8:33 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
LOL Melly
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
324. Orcasystems
8:32 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting Bonedog:
LOl surfmom hearing you say 80 is cool and need the long sleeves is funny. Especially that its mid 50s water temps lately and the guys are still out there.

I have to upload some great shots I got this winter of a guy getting tubed off some Nor'Easter waves. Water temp was 42 degrees and the air temp was upper 30s LOL


Just looked at your blog:
Noteworthy Events
Strong Wide Spread Winds (15-25mph gusts to 35)
Tidal Departures Ahead Of System (up to 1ft above MAT)
Tidal Blow Out In Wake Of System (up to 1.5ft below MLLW)
Heavy Precipitation (1 to 1.25 QPF)

I will update as needed.


I believe an update is needed :)


Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
323. melly
8:31 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
You guys make me laugh,

By the way: "Does this hurricane make my butt look big"
322. Bonedog
8:30 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
glad you got it Orca :) I was afraid folks wouldn't
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
321. Bonedog
8:29 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
LOl surfmom hearing you say 80 is cool and need the long sleeves is funny. Especially that its mid 50s water temps lately and the guys are still out there.

I have to upload some great shots I got this winter of a guy getting tubed off some Nor'Easter waves. Water temp was 42 degrees and the air temp was upper 30s LOL
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
320. TheMom
8:29 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
https://www.dtv2009.gov/ for converter box coupon but you have to have power for it one option is those 3 hour charge power sources they are not that expensive and might work for longer than 3 hours with just the converter box on it since sure it takes less power than a laptop which is what the 3 hour rating is in line with.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 672
319. Orcasystems
8:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting Bonedog:
Orcasystems 4:21 PM EDT on September 26, 2008


You are a weird little camper aren't you


LOL Thats funny right there I dont care who you are


Gasp.. Larry the Cable guy.. my hero :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
318. GBlet
8:27 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
That little tv has been the best gag gift I have ever gotten! My best friend thinks I am a weather "FREAK", so she bought for our motorcycle trips. Needless to say, I LOVE IT. A true lifesaver and I will miss the poor little thing.
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 435
317. surfmom
8:26 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
well, as we know with ALL models - got to take it w/grain of salt..... the waves aren't here yet...but I';m thinking I'll get something. gulf temp by me is 80 degrees.... now after it being 86 degrees I'm finding that rather cool - still warm enough for hurricanes, but cool enough I'm already pulling out my longsleeve rashguard. I paddled yesterday and I got cold
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
316. Hurricajun
8:25 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
I dont' know about eating hurricanes, I think they might leave a few splinters in my tongue. Also, all that water may make me look too bloated. I think I'll stick with my usual FOOD!
Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
315. Bonedog
8:25 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Orcasystems 4:21 PM EDT on September 26, 2008


You are a weird little camper aren't you


LOL Thats funny right there I dont care who you are
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
314. TheMom
8:25 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting surfmom:
ahhhh you remembered... but then with him away -- I get to play -- I also work for/with him....in the home business. Felixble Sched....but no sick days... Horsework is on the side
But sometimes it is more fun when you are doing it as a sneak away ;-) Tell him to stay dry
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 672
313. isiah23
8:24 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting TheTracker08:
oh and if you guys are curious, i love hurricanes!!!! i do i do i do!!! and its my passion, and yes i would do anythingg to go through a catagory 1 or 2 again, i hate the death and destruction they cause, thats the downfall i hate!!!! if it werent for that, i would have one for breakfast, lunch, snack and dinner!!


i agree with The tracker i have been tracking hurricane since age 5 and have seen some amazing things and some sad thing
312. nolesjeff
8:24 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting Bonedog:
GBlet get a digital converter box. They sell for like 50 to 70 bucks at Walmarts and stuff.

I always wondered what was going to happen after the digital conversion takes place. No way of folks to get updates except through radio.


The Gov is gving vouchers for them, not sure who to go to though.
Member Since: June 20, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391
311. Tigerose
8:24 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
GBlet, the small battery TV's set up for digital are close to 300 right now, Should be out with some MUCH cheaper ones after the first of the year. They are great when you lose power for short period of time.
310. surfmom
8:23 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
ahhhh you remembered... but then with him away -- I get to play -- I also work for/with him....in the home business. Felixble Sched....but no sick days... Horsework is on the side
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
309. Hurricajun
8:22 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
just wanted to stop lurking for a while and wish everyone a GREAT weekend. We have been really busy at work and I have not had the time to say anything, but I am always reading!!!
Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
308. Bonedog
8:22 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Oh ok gotcha GBlet.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
307. Orcasystems
8:21 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting TheTracker08:
oh and if you guys are curious, i love hurricanes!!!! i do i do i do!!! and its my passion, and yes i would do anythingg to go through a catagory 1 or 2 again, i hate the death and destruction they cause, thats the downfall i hate!!!! if it werent for that, i would have one for breakfast, lunch, snack and dinner!!


You are a weird little camper aren't you.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
306. Bonedog
8:21 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
exactly NE I do the same
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
305. GBlet
8:21 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Will have to get a bigger tv, this one is more like a handheld radio.
Member Since: September 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 435
304. TheMom
8:20 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:

Ummm ok
*looks at Orca* Umm did you get a new pet? I think it needs some training *hands Orca a rolled up newspaper*
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 672
303. Orcasystems
8:20 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting Bonedog:
Orca you are probably right. Some folks love it others hate it others (such as myself) listen to it when it has backup from other models.

It does very well with analyzing most waves and other lows just seems to over do some of them thats all


Granted.. it does inflate the Intensity a bit.. but it has got a good handle on picking them up, and the track. Its had Kyle going to NY from the 240 hour mark
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
302. TheTracker08
8:20 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
i like the way you guys approach things, you guys arent ignorant
301. NEwxguy
8:19 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
as far as CMC,I wait for consistency,it spins up a lot of systems,if they continue to show up for several runs,I take note,but a lot of times they just disappear.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 883 Comments: 15862
300. Bonedog
8:18 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
sorry to hear about the work though :(
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
299. TheTracker08
8:18 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
oh and if you guys are curious, i love hurricanes!!!! i do i do i do!!! and its my passion, and yes i would do anythingg to go through a catagory 1 or 2 again, i hate the death and destruction they cause, thats the downfall i hate!!!! if it werent for that, i would have one for breakfast, lunch, snack and dinner!!
298. TheMom
8:17 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
293

Good Day Main Mom! Sorry to hear about the horses. What the Hubby go and run off for like that he didn't get enough from Faye?

So you gonna be running out for Milk and bread on Tuesday then I guess ;-)
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 672
297. Orcasystems
8:16 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting TheTracker08:
i like you orca and NE guy!!

Ummm ok
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
296. Bonedog
8:16 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
hey surfmom. Glad to hear some fun waves heading your way. Go and enjoy them, Ill be out in the line up in spirit LOL
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
295. surfmom
8:16 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting TheTracker08:
i like you orca and NE guy!!
Good, then remain polite, even when you disagree, they can bite your head off if you get full of yourself
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
294. Bonedog
8:15 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Orca you are probably right. Some folks love it others hate it others (such as myself) listen to it when it has backup from other models.

It does very well with analyzing most waves and other lows just seems to over do some of them thats all
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
293. surfmom
8:13 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
surf report/wave chart has me getting 5ftrs this Tuesday..... would love the buoy action w/out any major 'cane! Got Surf withdrawal -- just want some fun waves -

Long hard day working outside eastI75, no real humidity, but it was HOT. One horse lame, and another colicking at a friends barn. Change in temps. even for the better, can set a sensitive horse off.

Looks like my SWFL spouse gets to meet Kyle/NYC on his business trip - sigh
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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