Topical Storm Kyle forms, and heads towards Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:19 PM GMT on September 25, 2008

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Our 10-day lull in tropical cyclone activity is over. The tropical disturbance (93L) that has been bedeviling Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Virgin Islands finally developed a well-formed closed circulation and enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be classified as Tropical Storm Kyle. Visible satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical storm undergoing high wind shear--an exposed low-level circulation center, with all the heavy thunderstorm activity pushed over to one side by the shear. This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter flight found top winds of about 45 mph in the heavy thunderstorms on the east side of Kyle.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Kyle.

The forecast
Wind shear has dropped to about 15 knots, and this allowed Kyle to organize sufficiently to get a name today. The current wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model keeps the shear at 10-20 knots for the next two days, which should allow Kyle to intensify to at least a 65 mph tropical storm. Kyle is currently over waters of about 28°C. Waters will stay this warm Friday, then cool to 26°C on Saturday. After Kyle crosses north of 40° latitude (east of Cape Cod, Massachusetts), the waters cool dramatically to 15°C (59°F) and shear is expected to increase. This should weaken Kyle by about 10-15 mph before landfall on Sunday afternoon. I'm expecting Kyle to be a 50-60 mph tropical storm at landfall Sunday afternoon in Nova Scotia. According to the forecast wind radius from NHC, tropical storm force winds of 39 mph and higher will miss Massachusetts, but may affect eastern Maine. Tropical storm force winds are also expected to miss Bermuda. (Use the wundermap with "wind radius" turned on to see the expected radius of tropical storm force winds).

The Hurricane Ike relief effort continues
Thanks go to everyone who has contributed to the portlight.org charity! We raised enough money to send another truck with relief supplies to Winnie and Bridge City, Texas, where traditional relief efforts have fallen short. Wunderground member Presslord (AKA Paul Timmons, Jr.), who is coordinating this effort, has announced that if we raise an additional $10,000 mark, he will pose in a dress for our wunderphoto gallery. I know I personally will be contributing to help decorate our wunderphoto gallery (but more so to help out the people of Winnie and Bridge City!) We're up to $2500 so far.


Figure 2. The town of Bridge City was inundated with a massive storm surge even though it was far displaced from Ike's landfall point. This speaks to just how massive Ike was. The people of Bridge City, Winnie, and other small towns in Ike's path will need help for a long time to come: www.portlight.org. Image credit: Storm Junkie.

Your contributions do make a difference, and you can read more about the effort at at stormjunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters

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861. NorthxCakalaky
8:37 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
NEW BLOG
860. cellman007
4:12 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hmmm three responses to his remark.. all negative.. gotta love the good old USA :)



How is that negative???, he made the negative remark about the USA (I forget it's ok for liberals to and the rest of the world to bash the USA with no rebuttles allowed), I'm just saying GO IF WANT TO, nobody stopping him if he hates it here so much.
Member Since: September 1, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
858. NEwxguy
3:08 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting vortfix:
West and SSW are two different animals.

The current forward motion of Kyle is exactly what has been forecast by the NHC.
If he overshoots the forecast length of this current track then we will have an issue at the other end.
Right now he is on track.


I agree,its doing what it is suppose to do,the real issue will be at the point it is suppose to start the recurve
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15989
856. futuremet
3:04 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
The GOM definitely needs attention

12Z NAM now also develops a low there
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
855. Orcasystems
3:04 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Complete refresh.. off to work, back in an hour or so to refresh.

All Systems ... Atlantic
New York - NS ... Kyle ... complete with Models
New York - NS ... Kyle ... with Cloud Cover
New York - NS ... Kyle ... complete with Hurricane Hunter Plots (when ontask)
New York - NS ... Kyle ... predicted Landfall
Carols System ... 94L ... with Cloud Cover
Present Satellite picture BOC Blob
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean
CMC & ... NY City/Maine
CMC & ... BOC
CMC & ... Caribbean Part Duex

BTW, second HH just off the ground from St Croix into Kyle
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
853. TheMom
3:01 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
I found this for newbies like me and thought I would share in case anyone is interested.

Free Intro Met college level course from MIT
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 672
851. NEwxguy
3:00 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
It's interesting,yesterday NHC statements were pretty sure it was going east of the Cape,but now they are hedging their bets,its obviously a very fluid situation
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 888 Comments: 15989
850. Orcasystems
3:00 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting Engine2:
Any jog or wobble to the west and it would effect a higher population of people. Then again any job or wobble to the east will reduce its impact on high population areas


I noticed your nick was in that last picture I posted..
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
849. IpswichWeatherCenter
3:00 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Can you get a refund? lol.


I'm on the free version...
Member Since: April 27, 2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097
848. Engine2
2:58 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Any jog or wobble to the west and it would effect a higher population of people. Then again any job or wobble to the east will reduce its impact on high population areas
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
847. IpswichWeatherCenter
2:57 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting HobeSoundShudders:
re: It looks like it on loops.

not dissing you just kinda shocked...please tell me which loops, thanx jo


I don't know... it just comes up with no logos or nothing.
Member Since: April 27, 2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097
846. Tejano72
2:56 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
That puts a CAT 1 awfully close to Boston. So many people, so much water, plus the harbor. Worrying. Any tornadoes there would be ugly as well.
845. chrisrw
2:55 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting cchsweatherman:
At 11AM, there is now a Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. No change in strength and forward motion.


Kyle expected to pass about 270 nm to the west late Saturday a.m.

844. cchsweatherman
2:54 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting Seastep:
Wave in Atlantic trying to form LLC?



Been watching that area for the past 24 hours as it has been looking better organized with decent convection and noticeable low-level circulation. I expect this to be designated Invest 95L within the next 24 hours.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
843. Orcasystems
2:53 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting vortfix:
Just got tracking the Eye software for Kyle and it thinks hes going on a WSW track

WHAT??




The tracks are model tracks are shifting west a bit



Click to enlarge
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
842. cchsweatherman
2:52 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
841. Seastep
2:51 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Wave in Atlantic trying to form LLC?

Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
839. IpswichWeatherCenter
2:50 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting cchsweatherman:
In watching the latest visible satellite imagery, you can see quite clearly how high pressure has been pushing on Kyle and been trying to force Kyle more westward over the past hour.


Thanks CCHS...
Member Since: April 27, 2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097
838. Engine2
2:50 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Yea I'm starting to get a bit worried about this - we will have to see what the new models have at 2PM - also all the local mets where saying this would be out of here by Saturday Night now I see that Kyle will only be to my south by Sunday Morning.
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
836. cchsweatherman
2:48 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
In watching the latest visible satellite imagery, you can see quite clearly how high pressure has been pushing on Kyle and been trying to force Kyle more westward over the past hour.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
835. IpswichWeatherCenter
2:48 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting HobeSoundShudders:
re: hes going on a WSW track


HUH?? ^_^ jo


It looks like it on loops.
Member Since: April 27, 2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097
834. Orcasystems
2:47 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting indianrivguy:
Orca, I was just making a comment so please take no offense, but as a Floridian, I remember your remarks..

wow, Kyle really IS nekkid.. the shear that had it flattened out is now unmasking it.


Kyle is actually starting to worry me.. if it keeps shifting west... its not going to be pretty. There is a substantially populated area it could make landfall at, if it shifts west. Its also where the CMC is pointing to.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
833. chrisrw
2:47 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


My apologies




Apology not necessary!
832. cchsweatherman
2:46 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
At 11AM, there is now a Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. No change in strength and forward motion.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
831. indianrivguy
2:44 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Orca, I was just making a comment so please take no offense, but as a Floridian, I remember your remarks..

wow, Kyle really IS nekkid.. the shear that had it flattened out is now unmasking it.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2639
829. Orcasystems
2:43 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting chrisrw:


I assume you included mine. I'm not USA affiliated! Plus I'm not sure why you would take exception to what I posted.


Actually, I shouldn't have brought it up at all. I just found it humorous that someone could make an observation, and three people would make statements about it.

I agree with what you said, other then the weather sucks part :) But you were right, I did count you as one of the three.

My apologies


Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
828. TheCaneWhisperer
2:43 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
Just got tracking the Eye software for Kyle and it thinks hes going on a WSW track


Can you get a refund? lol.
827. IpswichWeatherCenter
2:42 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Just got tracking the Eye software for Kyle and it thinks hes going on a WSW track
Member Since: April 27, 2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097
826. TheCaneWhisperer
2:39 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Morning All.

06ZGFS is showing a rather active CV wave train continuing until the middle of October and beyond.
825. Orcasystems
2:37 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting indianrivguy:
well orca, your comments about why you won't live in Florida were no different..

Snakes.. gators..sharks...hurricanes, and old retired Canadians? Thats the same thing?

I stand corrected then :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
824. chrisrw
2:37 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hmmm three responses to his remark.. all negative.. gotta love the good old USA :)


I assume you included mine. I'm not USA affiliated! Plus I'm not sure why you would take exception to what I posted.
823. indianrivguy
2:35 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
well orca, your comments about why you won't live in Florida were no different..
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2639
822. IpswichWeatherCenter
2:35 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Interesting:

Member Since: April 27, 2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097
821. Orcasystems
2:34 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting conchygirl:
Please don't judge us all by a few. LOL


I don't.. I have seen and chatted with many nice people on here.. it just amazes me what some people think they have to say.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
820. IpswichWeatherCenter
2:34 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
TS Kyle:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 SEP 2008 Time : 131500 UTC
Lat : 26:28:42 N Lon : 68:29:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 996.4mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.3 3.4 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +14.5C Cloud Region Temp : -23.5C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
Member Since: April 27, 2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097
819. conchygirl
2:32 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hmmm three responses to his remark.. all negative.. gotta love the good old USA :)
Please don't judge us all by a few. LOL
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
818. MahFL
2:32 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Nice wx here in Jax.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3850
817. MahFL
2:32 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Is Kyle actually move WSW ?
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3850
816. Orcasystems
2:30 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting cellman007:



Don't let the door hit you on the butt on the way out.


Hmmm three responses to his remark.. all negative.. gotta love the good old USA :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
815. Orcasystems
2:29 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting vortfix:
That NOAA RECON flight is at over 15,000 feet and has not yet arrived at Kile:


At 14:09:00Z (last observation), the observation was 112 miles (180 km) to the NE (53°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.


Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
813. cellman007
2:27 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Quoting LakeShadow:
Orca, you're in B.C., Right?

soo jealous! Nice place, from what I've heard. perfect climate there. Beautiful country...nice and "liberal" with the laws....free health care... I think if elections go bad again this year, I just might be BC bound. I'll make a swim for S. Ontario and catch the cross continental rails out west!
:oP



Don't let the door hit you on the butt on the way out.
Member Since: September 1, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
811. Jerrob
2:26 PM GMT on September 26, 2008
Is the blog slow this am or is everyone having trouble waking up? :-)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 188

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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