North Carolina coastal storm may become Subtropical Storm Kyle

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:16 PM GMT on September 24, 2008

Share this Blog
3
+

A subtropical storm (one with characteristics of both a tropical and an extratropical storm) has developed off the coast of North Carolina today. This storm is being referred to as 94L by NHC. Visible satellite loops show that some heavy thunderstorm activity has developed near the center, which is characteristic of tropical storms. However, 94L's heaviest thunderstorm activity is well away from the center, in a long curved band that arcs from the center northeastwards for several hundred miles. This configuration is characteristic of a subtropical or extratropical storm. Thus, 94L qualifies as a hybrid subtropical storm. We typically get one or two subtropical storms per year in the Atlantic, and I've written up a subtropical storm tutorial that talks about the differences between the various types of storms. Subtropical storms get named by NHC if they are judged to be sufficiently tropical in nature. The exact criteria used to make this judgment are somewhat subjective, but 94L is currently judged to be more extratropical than tropical, so has not been named yet. NHC is currently giving 94L a high (>50% chance) of becoming a subtropical storm by Friday, and 94L would become Subtropical Storm Kyle if it were to get a name. Subtropical and tropical storms create similar winds, but tropical storms make more rain. Subtropical storms cannot strengthen to hurricane status--they must become fully tropical before that can happen. Thus, we need not fear rapid intensification of a subtropical storm. Transition to a tropical storm typically takes one to three days.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of 94L. Image credit: NOAA.

The storm is affecting a wide area of ocean from South Carolina to Virginia. The Diamond Shoals buoy near Cape Hatteras reported 14 foot waves and sustained winds of 40 mph at 2:50 pm EDT. The highest waves, though, have been up near the Virginia/North Carolina border, where the Virginia Beach buoy measured 17 foot seas at 7:50 am EDT. Winds should increase to 40-50 mph along the coast of North Carolina tonight through Thursday as the storm approaches shore. This unnamed storm will affect North Carolina like a tropical storm would. Expect tide levels of 3-6 feet above normal along the coast, and rain amounts of 2-3 inches. Cape Hatteras, NC radar shows a modest but expanding area of rain off the coast. Wind shear is currently 20-30 knots over the low, and is expected to remain at that level for the next two days. Water temperatures are about 27°C under the storm, and will cool to 26°C as 94L approaches the coast. No significant strengthening is likely before landfall. Landfall will occur between Thursday afternoon and Friday morning, on the North Carolina coast between the Outer Banks and the South Carolina border. The exact landfall point is unimportant, since 94L's highest winds extend over a broad area. Most of coastal North Carolina will be impacted by this storm's highest winds. The Hurricane Hunters just arrived at the storm, so we'll have a good idea of 94L's winds by 7 pm EDT.

Dominican Republic disturbance 93L
Tropical disturbance 93L is re-organizing over the waters just north of the Dominican Republic. Visible satellite loops show heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing, but the the system has no well-defined center yet. Several surface swirls are competing to become the center of circulation 93L will consolidate around. NHC is giving 93L a moderate (20-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, but I believe it is high (>50%). Pressures at Punta Cana on the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic remain the lowest they've been for the week--1006 mb. I expect 93L will spread rains of 2-4 inches to northern Haiti, the northern Dominican Republic, western Puerto Rico, and the Turks and Caicos Islands today through Thursday.

The forecast
Wind shear remains near 15-20 knots, which is marginal for development. The current wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model keeps the shear at 15-25 knots for the remainder of the week. The computer models take 93L northwards to a landfall in New England or Nova Scotia on Saturday or Sunday, and I doubt the storm would hit as anything stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm. The storm is too disorganized at present, and there is too much shear in the forecast to allow 93L to become a hurricane.

Links to follow
Cape Hatteras, NC weather

The Hurricane Ike, "Presslord will wear a dress challenge" begins
A huge thanks go to everyone who has contributed to the portlight.org charity! We raised enough dough to send another truck with relief supplies to Winnie and Bridge City, Texas, where traditional relief efforts have fallen short. Wunderground member Presslord (AKA Paul Timmons, Jr.), who is coordinating this effort, has announced that if we raise an additional $10,000 mark, he will pose in a dress for our wunderphoto gallery. I know I personally will be contributing to help decorate our wunderphoto gallery (but more so to help out the people of Winnie and Bridge City!)

The latest from Presslord:

Attention all Hands!!!!!!!!!!!!

As of this point we have raised just over $22,000.00 for our Ike relief efforts...and we are spending it as fast as it comes in...will break it down in a few days.

Patrap is on the scene and Icepilot is on the way with a load....stormjunkie and FLDART are gonna do some needs assessment today and head back to regroup for the next round.

I flew my wife home from Houston last night...her flight landed at 10:40P...we were up until past 5A this morning...she had much to say...lots of tears...some of joy...some of frustration...but suffice it to say: the "Forgotten People" we set out to help directly are far better shape because of what y'all made possible.


Figure 2. doorless Winnie-Stowell Firehouse. FEMA informed them it would be six months before they would get new doors. Image credit: Storm Junkie.

Your contributions do make a difference, and you can read more about the effort at at stormjunkie's blog.

I'll have an update Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Lluvias torrenciales en Arroyo, PR (12345678912345678912)
Inundaciones en Arroyo, Puerto Rico debido a los fuertes aguaceros provocados por una fuerte onda tropical entre el 21 y 22 de Septiembre de 2008.
Lluvias torrenciales en Arroyo, PR

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 779 - 729

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

779. MahFL
3:29 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Om the Wilmington LR radar it looks like 94L is begginning to wrap round convection at the COC.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2906
778. TheMom
3:16 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting IKE:


Note: takes a minute to load. Be patient....at least view it after I went to all of this trouble.
Thanks Ike it looks like the COC is going north and the convetion is going NE so it is the pull from 94 grabbing and not the shear removing is that right?
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 672
777. TheCaneWhisperer
3:07 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting bjdsrq:


Dude, you are one of the biggest fear mongers on this board. Give it a break for once.


That couldn't be farther from the truth.

You read it, now you know about it, don't you? That was the goal and it worked. I state facts, I don't hype, I don't spread fear. This IS a serious problem that's just being realized off the lower east peninsula. So, next time you come over to the east coast and go for a swim you'll be aware of the situation and more cautious.
776. KeyWestwx
3:01 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting TheMom:
;-) I got two Keys to teach me while they make me giggle so instead of calling you thing one and Thing 2 My first Key is Key so you are Key squared unless you would rather be Key to the second power ;-) Key one gave me an s since Surfmom is the original mom I'm moms lol

Are you guys getting any of this brisk morning air all the way down there yet?


Wow- that's quite the formula you got there. need to bring out my abacus to figure it out.
The cool air is slooowly creeping in. Miami wxman said a stronger cold front might move in next week- seems like tropical season may come to an early end....
Member Since: September 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 270
775. Bonedog
3:00 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
!!!!!!!! NEW BLOG !!!!!!!
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
774. mikatnight
2:58 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Jeff Masters has posted his latest...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
773. surfmom
2:57 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
770TheMom. I got that... I think
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
772. Chucktown
2:55 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Morning SJ. I just sent you info for Friday to your personal email. Great job to you and Press and everyone else that made this contribution possible.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1662
771. Bonedog
2:55 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
NE I think if anything we would look at a strong Nor'Easter. Waters south of LI are cool and the Stream isn't that big so maybe a quick burst nothing major though
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
770. TheMom
2:55 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting KeyWestwx:


Yes Mom- you must be on our iggy.. What the heck does that mean- Teehee

And who you callin a Square??? :)
;-) I got two Keys to teach me while they make me giggle so instead of calling you thing one and Thing 2 My first Key is Key so you are Key squared unless you would rather be Key to the second power ;-) Key one gave me an s since Surfmom is the original mom I'm moms lol

Are you guys getting any of this brisk morning air all the way down there yet?
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 672
769. surfmom
2:55 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Thankfully...I do not live on the island (at the time I remember thinking my spouse was a party pooper) --NOW I am grateful. We pick the house based on construciton and elevation. He built an addition (architect) that was built probably to the specs of the "last house standing" on Galveston. Pillars sunk way down, poured concrete , rebars and on and on. Neighbors thought he was looney -- me, glad I have a fortress -- above which I fly the Jolly Roger, alpha flag and dive flag...plus a statue of King Neptune --to whom we pay homage too.

the rest is in the hands of fate, mother nature and yeaa Luck
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
768. mikatnight
2:53 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Thanks BD & HK.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
767. fmbill
2:52 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting KeyWestwx:


"OUCH" got the tune in my head now- got to admit.......


Yeah..pretty lame joke.

But, now i'll have that song stuck in my head the rest of the day. LOL!
Member Since: May 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 409
766. capefearspt
2:52 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
new blog
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
765. NEwxguy
2:52 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting Bonedog:
Mik its wandering. Wants to stay over the gulf stream a little longer ;)


Don't like to see these storms sit over the gulf stream,and if 93l comes on up,want to see what happens when it encounters the gulf stream too.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 862 Comments: 15079
764. bjdsrq
2:52 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
For those interested in reading up on the South Florida Lion Fish Invasion. It is a VERY serious problem and should be spread like wildfire to everyone you know, THEY CAN KILL YOU. Especially unsuspecting children who see a pretty fish.


Dude, you are one of the biggest fear mongers on this board. Give it a break for once.
Member Since: July 26, 2003 Posts: 3 Comments: 428
763. champagnedrmz
2:52 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting keywestbrat:
this looks neat


Link


Looks very neat.
762. Alockwr21
2:50 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting capefearspt:
it's about 150 miles SE of Wilmington, NC


Appreciate that.
Member Since: September 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 725
761. bjdsrq
2:49 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
... Record low temperature tied at Tampa...

a record low temperature of 65 degrees was set at Tampa today. This ties the old record of 65 set in 1990.

Anyone see an early death for what's left of tropical wx season?
Member Since: July 26, 2003 Posts: 3 Comments: 428
760. HurricaneKing
2:49 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting mikatnight:
Post 745:

Why does it look to be moving slightly East of North?


The flow over it is nne shifting to nnw and maybe nw before going back to n.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2449
759. TheMom
2:49 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting keywestbrat:
thats funny the mom, but i must be on his iggy
You been bad again?
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 672
758. Bonedog
2:49 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Mik its wandering. Wants to stay over the gulf stream a little longer ;)
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
757. capefearspt
2:48 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting Alockwr21:
Is 94L still off shore? or has it come on yet?
it's about 150 miles SE of Wilmington, NC
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
756. Everette721
2:48 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Wow. The sun is peaking out now through the clouds after that big squall that just came through.
755. Alockwr21
2:48 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Not supposed to make landfall till tonight or tomorrow morning.


Thanks. So there's still time for possible strengthening?
Member Since: September 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 725
754. Bonedog
2:47 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
surfmom to me if your on a barrier island you definatley GO!!

if your inland its depends on your elevation and house construction.

For me it has always been head inland.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
753. Engine2
2:47 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
convection is starting to pop on the coc of 93L - seems like initial band forming around the circulation center
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
752. mikatnight
2:46 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Post 745:

Why does it look to be moving slightly East of North?
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
751. HurricaneKing
2:46 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting Alockwr21:
Is 94L still off shore? or has it come on yet?


Not supposed to make landfall till tonight or tomorrow morning.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2449
750. HurricaneKing
2:45 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting IKE:


I'm so nice I looped it for you.

Note: takes a minute to load. Be patient....at least view it after I went to all of this trouble.


It looks like its getting ready to accelerate north or get stretched into nothingness or both. Also I thing the convection is probably going to shift to the nw side of the storm where it interacts with the front.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2449
749. surfmom
2:45 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Today was the first day my newspaper in SRQ published two photographs of damage done by IKE --seems like the "press" figures if they ignore bad/sad new it will go away???? Hard to figure, especially since the surge pictures would serve as good education as to the power of a 'cane --when I run the key now, I look at everything so differently.... NOW and only now do I understand the power and destruction of surge. I didn't see that kind of damamge w/Frances and Jeanne. My decisions to go or stay have been totally revamped by the photos StormJunkie & EmmyRose posted.
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
748. Tazmanian
2:44 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
000
URNT12 KNHC 251410
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/13:48:10Z
B. 32 deg 13 min N
076 deg 46 min W
C. NA
D. 54 kt
E. 209 deg 31 nm
F. 306 deg 47 kt
G. 214 deg 36 nm
H. EXTRAP 994 mb
I. 20 C / 336 m
J. 23 C / 334 m
K. 21 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 02GGA INVEST OB 12
MAX FL WIND 47 KT SW QUAD 13:33:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 23 C 193 / 19 NM FROM FL CNTR
MAX FL WIND IN INVEST 50 KTS SE QUAD 12:56:50Z
;


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114051
747. Alockwr21
2:44 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Is 94L still off shore? or has it come on yet?
Member Since: September 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 725
746. KeyWestwx
2:43 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting fmbill:


"What's your name, little swirl, what's your name..."

A remake of an old song?


"OUCH" got the tune in my head now- got to admit.......
Member Since: September 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 270
745. IKE
2:42 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting HobeSoundShudders:
g' morning ike, nice to see you!

re: 93L is exposed...

but it sure is a pretty little swirl there...jo


I'm so nice I looped it for you.

Note: takes a minute to load. Be patient....at least view it after I went to all of this trouble.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
744. KeyWestwx
2:40 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:
94l earlier didn't have a lot of moisture with all the dry air around,but its really collecting moisture now from the gulf stream and from the tropics,this is going to be a very wet system,better get my pumps ready in my cellar.


I used to live on Cape Cod- few years ago- and experienced equal amount of wild weather there as I have in the Keys. Check out my photos on this site. So have fun with this storm NEwxguy
btw- i'm a huge Miami Dolphins fan (creeping away from my computer now....)
Member Since: September 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 270
743. fmbill
2:40 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting HobeSoundShudders:
g' morning ike, nice to see you!

re: 93L is exposed...

but it sure is a pretty little swirl there...jo


"What's your name, little swirl, what's your name..."

A remake of an old song?
Member Since: May 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 409
742. oceanblues
2:40 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting Bonedog:
ocean just looked at the TWD and no mention of a wave in that area

one midway between africa and the leewards

one in the carib extending into venezula

one heading for Nicaragua

one in the BOC


thank you bonedog off to work now hit everyone up later.....
741. fmbill
2:39 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting KeyWestwx:


looks promising....
BTW- Fire Marshal Bill is ,by far, the most disturbing character, EVER!, to hit the TV screens. LOL


Yup...when i was the fire marshal in my community, i had more people tell me about this skit on In Living Color. I never watched the show until my nephew made me sit down to watch it with him. What a hoot!!!
Member Since: May 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 409
740. capefearspt
2:37 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
frying pan shoals buoy data:

Continuous Winds TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
9:50 am NNE ( 19 deg ) 40.2 kts
9:40 am NNE ( 16 deg ) 38.9 kts
9:30 am NNE ( 16 deg ) 40.2 kts
9:20 am NNE ( 15 deg ) 41.4 kts
9:10 am NNE ( 20 deg ) 40.6 kts
9:00 am NNE ( 15 deg ) 39.6 kts
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
739. HurricaneKing
2:37 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting IKE:
93L is exposed...



It's been like that most of the morning and it's starting to look a little stretched. Maybe the flow around 94l could kill it after all. Although the gfs has 93l opening up and then closing back off east of nc as 94l dies and the energy is transfered.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2449
738. conchygirl
2:36 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting StormJunkie:
Thanks conchy

That said, spend that energy on thoughts and prayers for those in Texas.

Also, done should read doing...A long road ahead for the folks out there and we will continue to help as long as we can and as long as they need.

Definitely thoughts and prayers and donations are still so important. Very sad situation.
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
737. KeyWestwx
2:36 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting keywestbrat:
thats funny the mom, but i must be on his iggy


Yes Mom- you must be on our iggy.. What the heck does that mean- Teehee

And who you callin a Square??? :)
Member Since: September 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 270
736. HurricaneKing
2:35 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting largeeyes:
No way 94L gets named at 11am. It's obviously still extratropical and that last gulp of dry air will prevent it becoming tropical before landfall.


Tell that to the hurricane hunters. (I admit though it's borderline. Looks still extratropical but they're fining it has a flat to slightly warm core.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2449
735. StormJunkie
2:34 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Thanks conchy

That said, spend that energy on thoughts and prayers for those in Texas.

Also, done should read doing...A long road ahead for the folks out there and we will continue to help as long as we can and as long as they need.

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
733. Seastep
2:32 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
oceanblues -

I think that was based on the 00Z and 12Z runs of CMC yesterday developing somthing in BOC/Yucatan at the end of the run.... not doing it any more. I think there was also some other model I had never heard of that did something also.

00Z - Link

12Z - Link
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3412
732. Bonedog
2:31 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
NRL still has it as 94L so I don't think an 11am name.

Even though its warm cored still looks to extratropical to me
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
731. largeeyes
2:31 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
No way 94L gets named at 11am. It's obviously still extratropical and that last gulp of dry air will prevent it becoming tropical before landfall.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1449
729. KeyWestwx
2:30 PM GMT on September 25, 2008
Quoting fmbill:
MAX FL WIND 47 KT SW QUAD 13:33:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 23 C 193 / 19 NM FROM FL CNTR
MAX FL WIND IN INVEST 50 KTS SE QUAD 12:56:50Z

Looks warm enough near the center.



looks promising....
BTW- Fire Marshal Bill is ,by far, the most disturbing character, EVER!, to hit the TV screens. LOL
Member Since: September 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 270

Viewing: 779 - 729

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.