North Carolina coastal storm winding up; 93L disorganized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:14 PM GMT on September 24, 2008

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It's tough to tell what tropical disturbance 93L is up to, as the storm has significantly deteriorated overnight. Dominican Republic radar is down, and visible satellite loops show little heavy thunderstorm activity or organization to the cloud pattern. However, pressures at Punta Cana on the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic are the lowest they've been for the week--1006 mb. I expect 93L will regenerate north of the Dominican Republic today and spread heavy rains to that country and Puerto Rico this afternoon and Thursday.

In the Dominican Republic, heavy rain has been limited to the extreme eastern end, near Punta Cana, where satellite estimates indicate up to ten inches of rain has fallen. Rainfall in the capital, Santo Domingo, has been about three inches, according to three personal weather stations there. Additional heavy rains of 2-4 inches are likely today through Thursday in portions of the Dominican Republic.

Haiti has thus far escaped heavy rains from 93L, and I expect only an additional 2-4 inches will there. Heaviest rains in the Turks and Caicos islands and southeastern Bahamas should be in the 2-4 inch range. Western Puerto Rico may receive an additional 2-4 inches, as well.

The forecast
Wind shear remains near 15 knots. The current wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model keeps the shear at 15-25 knots for the remainder of the week. The computer models take 93L northwards to a landfall in New England or Nova Scotia on Saturday or Sunday, and I doubt the storm would hit as anything stronger than a 55 mph tropical storm. The storm is too disorganized at present, and there is too much shear in the forecast to allow 93L to become a hurricane.


Figure 1. Observed precipitation for Puerto Rico from 93L. Image credit: NOAA.

North Carolina coastal storm
An extratropical "Nor'easter" storm is developing off the coast of North Carolina today, and this low has the potential to acquire tropical characteristics and become a subtropical storm by Friday as it moves slowly west-southwest. Cape Hatteras, NC radar shows a modest but expanding area of rain off the coast. The Diamond Shoals buoy near Cape Hatteras reported 12 foot waves and sustained winds of 29 mph at 8 am EDT this morning. Sustained winds of 38 mph were observed there last night at 10 pm EDT. Winds should increase to 40-50 mph along the coast of North Carolina tonight through Thursday as the storm intensifies, and this unnamed storm will affect North Carolina like a weak tropical storm would. Expect tide levels of 3-6 feet above normal along the coast, and rain amounts of 2-3 inches. The storm is currently tapping some relatively modest moisture from the Atlantic, but total precipitable water imagery show a large region of deep tropical moisture associated with 93L is approaching North Carolina. The coastal low should be able to draw in this moisture on Thursday, potentially aiding it in transitioning to a subtropical storm. Wind shear is currently 30 knots over the low, but may fall to 20 knots on Thursday. The increased moisture and lower shear may allow the coastal low to transition to a subtropical storm before it makes landfall Friday morning near the North Carolina/South Carolina border.

Links to follow
Dominican Republic radar
Puerto Rico radar
Cape Hatteras, NC weather

The Hurricane Ike "NEXT TRUCK CHALLENGE" continues
Two wunderground members, presslord and violet312s, have announced that they will match two dollars for every dollar in contributions made to portlight.org. This charity has really made a difference in some of the hard-hit areas of Texas and Louisiana affected by Hurricane Ike neglected by the traditional relief efforts. A quote from Paul Timmons (AKA Presslord), who has helped coordinate this effort:

1.) We have reached a total of $3500 in our Next Truck Challenge....which is enough to fund another truckload of requested supplies to Bridge City and Winnie TX...will leave first of next week...Violet and I will be poorer financially...but richer in the ways that matter...y'all render me speechless...

2.) Patrap is rolling there shortly in a truck so as to arrive at first light....

3.) I don't even wanna talk about the next challenge...


If we contribute heartily to the next challenge, you'll see why Paul does not want to talk about it! A testimonial from a beneficiary of a Portlight aid shipment:

From: gulfcoastDrifter 3:02 PM EDT on September 23, 2008
"I live in Bridge City off of FM 408 and want to say thank you for coming out here to help out."


Figure 2. Portlight delivering supplies to a Winnie-Stowell Red Cross shelter. Apparently the canned cokes (not provided by Portlight) were only for lineman. The residents were only being allowed to drink water. Needless to say, the residents were very happy to see us, although there was some confusion as to whether they could actually get the supplies we delivered. Image credit: Storm Junkie.

Your contributions do make a difference, and you can read more about the effort at at stormjunkie's blog.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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363. KEHCharleston
2:31 PM EDT on September 24, 2008
Station 41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy
(Data from this buoy is helpful to those in Wilmington)


Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
362. Engine2
2:28 PM EDT on September 24, 2008
I'm thinking the updated models don't have a good handle on 94L yet, both the GFDL and HWRF take it into North Carolina and dissipate it right away. They also still have 93L cranking up.
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361. tiggeriffic
6:30 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
hydrus...

at the bottom of the screen you have to scroll bar all the way to the right and hit the FWD button...there is no play button...hope that helped...=)
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360. hydrus
6:23 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
ENGINE-2-I tried to animate and it will not.I cannot figure out what I am doing wrong but I shall keep trouble shooting.
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359. Tigerose
2:23 PM EDT on September 24, 2008
orca, you are correct. Doc Masters started talking about the nor'easter--which is now 94 last week. He said those on the coast of NC/SC should be prepared for possible TS conditons on Friday. IF you read todays blog from him---he calls for a landfall on NC/SC border. I tend to listen to him.
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358. Elena85Vet
6:23 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
93l went orange.

Link
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357. tiggeriffic
6:22 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
but because 93 doesn't have spin, can't 94 absorb the moisture and all making 94 a little stronger? 2 spins would conflict, one spin and one blog of moisture...bigger spin...yes?
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356. NEwxguy
2:19 PM EDT on September 24, 2008
nothing there from 93l,so the fujiwara effect is not in play here anymore
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 896 Comments: 16202
354. HurricaneKing
6:16 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting Elena85Vet:
334. HurricaneKing

Which begs the question, how fast will the '94l' be moving once it starts making it's way Westward or West Northwestward later today or tonight?

93l is a long way away for that scenario.


2 tropical systems yes. A giant nor easter subtropical thing and a weak invest that can be easily pulled apart no.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2487
353. Engine2
2:15 PM EDT on September 24, 2008
Buoy off NC Diamond Shoals winds sustained at 38MPH gusting to about 50 MPH
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352. tiggeriffic
6:16 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
on this site...more than half the models have it hitting central SC...?

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/94-googlemaps.shtml
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351. Orcasystems
6:17 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Complete refresh

All Systems ... Atlantic
Caribbean System 93L ... complete with Models
Caribbean System 93L ... with Cloud Cover
Caribbean System 93L ... complete with Hurricane Hunter Plots (when ontask)
Carols System 94L ... complete with Models
Carols System 94L ... with Cloud Cover
Present Satellite picture BOC Blob
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean
Cape Verde Blobs
CMC & ... The Carols
CMC & ... BOC
CMC & ... Maine/Nova Scotia
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350. OSUWXGUY
6:03 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Back from lunch...

Looks like 94L has/is struggling with dry air. Still expect this to hold down intensification a bit, but 94L will make landfall will winds on the border between a strong TS and a Cat 1 hurricane.

Some new convection is starting to pop near the CoC now, but ultimately it will be Dmax and the inflow of moisture related to 93L from the southeast that should start more extensive deep convection later this evening and overnight.
349. tiggeriffic
6:12 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
so with 94L developing...how far south will the winds and effects be felt? Not sure if it is drifting SW or if the convection is building to the SW...any input would be appreciated.
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348. Skyepony (Mod)
6:09 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Orca ~ I gotta agree. We ain't been saying ya'll get ready for a blow on the east coast for nothing. No suprise 94L is already 55kts. The pressure gradient in ECFL is pretty tight from all this.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 274 Comments: 40604
347. charlottefl
6:06 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
October shifts the danger focus eastward toward the E. Gulf of Mexico, and dramatically increases the chances of a FL W Coast landfall. (I.E.-Wilma, Mitch, etc.) As with any season though nothing is etched in stone, just a general pattern.
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345. nolesjeff
6:09 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting hydrus:
ENGINE-2-I have the models you posted but cant get them to animate.Any suggestions?


To the extreme right is the controls for animation. Scroll there.
Member Since: June 20, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391
344. Engine2
2:08 PM EDT on September 24, 2008
hydrus, the control panel is on the right handside of the screen on each model. Scroll over on the screen if you have to. Otherwise I believe they are java enabled controls so possibly update your java
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343. Elena85Vet
6:03 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
334. HurricaneKing

Which begs the question, how fast will the '94l' be moving once it starts making it's way Westward or West Northwestward later today or tonight?

93l is a long way away for that scenario.
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342. Orcasystems
6:04 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Back from classes this morning and must say that Invest 94L has completely caught me off guard. Yesterday at this time, I was not even considering a possible tropical storm developing off the Carolina coastline, but it sure appears that could happen now. This system looks far better than Invest 93L ever has and WILL suck Invest 93L in before it ever gets another opportunity to become a classified tropical system.

That brings me to Invest 93L. I doubt that it will ever develop given its current extreme disorganization and the fact that the Carolina coastal storm has been ramping far faster than anyone ever expected and will force Invest 93L into it.


You should look at the models sometime, or read Dr M's write ups.. 94L has been predicted for days now and is right on time.. even the CMC had it 4 days ago.
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341. hydrus
5:57 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
ENGINE-2-I have the models you posted but cant get them to animate.Any suggestions?
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340. GoWVU
6:05 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Back from classes this morning and must say that Invest 94L has completely caught me off guard. Yesterday at this time, I was not even considering a possible tropical storm developing off the Carolina coastline, but it sure appears that could happen now. This system looks far better than Invest 93L ever has and WILL suck Invest 93L in before it ever gets another opportunity to become a classified tropical system.

That brings me to Invest 93L. I doubt that it will ever develop given its current extreme disorganization and the fact that the Carolina coastal storm has been ramping far faster than anyone ever expected and will force Invest 93L into it.


If 94L does bring 93L into it where does it go?
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339. forecastFlyer
1:04 PM CDT on September 24, 2008
southflcat5
'm not sure if this holds true, but one of my old professors told me the first strong cold front that makes it off the Texas Coast and into the GOM basically shuts down the hurricane season for that region.
The rest of the season will favor storms moving eastward towards Florida.

That's interesting. We had a "cool"front come in after Ike but no cold fronts yet. Not to get complacent but I did a search and didn't see any major Texas storms after Sept.
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338. rhiles2760
6:04 PM GMT on September 24, 2008

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This experimental product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT
Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD. THE LOW IS
PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE WELL TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS TO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
WARNINGS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG




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337. Orcasystems
6:03 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting surfmom:
Orca - good to see you, I have a question...which I think you once answered for me before reagarding a past hurricane katrina (?) -- Is there a pic that would show a plume (if there is one) of all the "ick" from Ike in the gulf?


I will look around for it, I have not seen anything like it lately..
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336. cchsweatherman
1:59 PM EDT on September 24, 2008
Back from classes this morning and must say that Invest 94L has completely caught me off guard. Yesterday at this time, I was not even considering a possible tropical storm developing off the Carolina coastline, but it sure appears that could happen now. This system looks far better than Invest 93L ever has and WILL suck Invest 93L in before it ever gets another opportunity to become a classified tropical system.

That brings me to Invest 93L. I doubt that it will ever develop given its current extreme disorganization and the fact that the Carolina coastal storm has been ramping far faster than anyone ever expected and will force Invest 93L into it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
335. KEHCharleston
2:00 PM EDT on September 24, 2008
RE :327. Elena85Vet

I think it is a WU thing

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
334. HurricaneKing
5:59 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:
93l,does not look good at this time,and starting to doubt it is going to amount to anything at this point


The spin looks like it's moving wnw now while the convection is going north. I'm really starting to think it will be 94l's dinner.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2487
333. NEwxguy
1:57 PM EDT on September 24, 2008
93l,does not look good at this time,and starting to doubt it is going to amount to anything at this point
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 896 Comments: 16202
332. Elena85Vet
5:57 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Correction 10:00am
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331. HurricaneKing
5:56 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting tea3781:
It looks like it is moving WSW!
It's not really moving maybe drifting west but the convection is get sheared sw.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2487
330. GoWVU
5:55 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting tea3781:
It looks like it is moving WSW!


I thought the same thing
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329. Engine2
1:55 PM EDT on September 24, 2008
Quoting hydrus:
ENGINE-2-Thank you for the response,those will help but i am trying to find the long range models with the graphics with the high and low pressure areas shown and animated.
Then please try these Link
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328. MissNadia
1:49 PM EDT on September 24, 2008
I am off to get things ready for 94l landfall, but this is what I have in the yard now
Wind N at 23 kts + 28
Press 30.09 and falling
Water temp 77F
Cloudy skies with good vis.
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327. Elena85Vet
5:54 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
323. KEHCharleston

Because NHC hasn't updated since 8:00AM?

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326. tea3781
5:22 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
It looks like it is moving WSW!
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325. Elena85Vet
5:48 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Expansion at 31.8N 75.3W

Link
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324. hydrus
5:44 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
ENGINE-2-Thank you for the response,those will help but i am trying to find the long range models with the graphics with the high and low pressure areas shown and animated.
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323. KEHCharleston
1:48 PM EDT on September 24, 2008
Quoting will40:
StormW do you have an exclaimation why WU doesnt have anything listing the area off NC coast?


Will

Nothing has been updated since 8AM - it is not just 94L information

See post 291

I have no idea why the delay in the update
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
322. Elena85Vet
5:43 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting Engine2:
Like These?


Take yer pick:
1. Fla/Ga border.
2. Central SC coast
3. Southern NC coast
4. Central NC coast
5. Out to sea.
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321. surfmom
12:42 PM EST on September 24, 2008
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Yeah, I'm also hurting for waves.
Looks like things could get going in the near future for the GOM.
Hopefully we get some nice waves without a landfalling system.
Thats for sure Waves w/o any grief - my new vow is to visit portlight.org and drop a donation in the bucket every time I ride 'cane waves (although I'm dropping in the bucket today..just cause I got out to paddle)
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319. Engine2
1:43 PM EDT on September 24, 2008
Quoting hydrus:
STORM W--Where can i find other computer models other than the ones listed at the bottom of Dr-M,s blog?
Like These?
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318. largeeyes
5:42 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
94L definitely gulping up some dry air. Cloud tops warming.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1481
317. hydrus
5:34 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
STORM W--Where can i find other computer models other than the ones listed at the bottom of Dr-M,s blog?
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316. WxLogic
5:35 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I'm not sure if this holds true, but one of my old professors told me the first strong cold front that makes it off the Texas Coast and into the GOM basically shuts down the hurricane season for that region.
The rest of the season will favor storms moving eastward towards Florida.


Weird ehh... is like closing a door to certain places as season changes. lol
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5050
315. will40
1:35 PM EDT on September 24, 2008
StormW do you have an exclaimation why WU doesnt have anything listing the area off NC coast?
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314. Engine2
1:36 PM EDT on September 24, 2008
94L is up on the SFWMD Page
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313. pearlandaggie
12:36 PM CDT on September 24, 2008
so, has anyone heard on conditions in SW Louisiana? i knew SE Texas got hit pretty hard, but i haven't heard much about La....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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