North Carolina coastal storm winding up; 93L disorganized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:14 PM GMT on September 24, 2008

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It's tough to tell what tropical disturbance 93L is up to, as the storm has significantly deteriorated overnight. Dominican Republic radar is down, and visible satellite loops show little heavy thunderstorm activity or organization to the cloud pattern. However, pressures at Punta Cana on the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic are the lowest they've been for the week--1006 mb. I expect 93L will regenerate north of the Dominican Republic today and spread heavy rains to that country and Puerto Rico this afternoon and Thursday.

In the Dominican Republic, heavy rain has been limited to the extreme eastern end, near Punta Cana, where satellite estimates indicate up to ten inches of rain has fallen. Rainfall in the capital, Santo Domingo, has been about three inches, according to three personal weather stations there. Additional heavy rains of 2-4 inches are likely today through Thursday in portions of the Dominican Republic.

Haiti has thus far escaped heavy rains from 93L, and I expect only an additional 2-4 inches will there. Heaviest rains in the Turks and Caicos islands and southeastern Bahamas should be in the 2-4 inch range. Western Puerto Rico may receive an additional 2-4 inches, as well.

The forecast
Wind shear remains near 15 knots. The current wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model keeps the shear at 15-25 knots for the remainder of the week. The computer models take 93L northwards to a landfall in New England or Nova Scotia on Saturday or Sunday, and I doubt the storm would hit as anything stronger than a 55 mph tropical storm. The storm is too disorganized at present, and there is too much shear in the forecast to allow 93L to become a hurricane.


Figure 1. Observed precipitation for Puerto Rico from 93L. Image credit: NOAA.

North Carolina coastal storm
An extratropical "Nor'easter" storm is developing off the coast of North Carolina today, and this low has the potential to acquire tropical characteristics and become a subtropical storm by Friday as it moves slowly west-southwest. Cape Hatteras, NC radar shows a modest but expanding area of rain off the coast. The Diamond Shoals buoy near Cape Hatteras reported 12 foot waves and sustained winds of 29 mph at 8 am EDT this morning. Sustained winds of 38 mph were observed there last night at 10 pm EDT. Winds should increase to 40-50 mph along the coast of North Carolina tonight through Thursday as the storm intensifies, and this unnamed storm will affect North Carolina like a weak tropical storm would. Expect tide levels of 3-6 feet above normal along the coast, and rain amounts of 2-3 inches. The storm is currently tapping some relatively modest moisture from the Atlantic, but total precipitable water imagery show a large region of deep tropical moisture associated with 93L is approaching North Carolina. The coastal low should be able to draw in this moisture on Thursday, potentially aiding it in transitioning to a subtropical storm. Wind shear is currently 30 knots over the low, but may fall to 20 knots on Thursday. The increased moisture and lower shear may allow the coastal low to transition to a subtropical storm before it makes landfall Friday morning near the North Carolina/South Carolina border.

Links to follow
Dominican Republic radar
Puerto Rico radar
Cape Hatteras, NC weather

The Hurricane Ike "NEXT TRUCK CHALLENGE" continues
Two wunderground members, presslord and violet312s, have announced that they will match two dollars for every dollar in contributions made to portlight.org. This charity has really made a difference in some of the hard-hit areas of Texas and Louisiana affected by Hurricane Ike neglected by the traditional relief efforts. A quote from Paul Timmons (AKA Presslord), who has helped coordinate this effort:

1.) We have reached a total of $3500 in our Next Truck Challenge....which is enough to fund another truckload of requested supplies to Bridge City and Winnie TX...will leave first of next week...Violet and I will be poorer financially...but richer in the ways that matter...y'all render me speechless...

2.) Patrap is rolling there shortly in a truck so as to arrive at first light....

3.) I don't even wanna talk about the next challenge...


If we contribute heartily to the next challenge, you'll see why Paul does not want to talk about it! A testimonial from a beneficiary of a Portlight aid shipment:

From: gulfcoastDrifter 3:02 PM EDT on September 23, 2008
"I live in Bridge City off of FM 408 and want to say thank you for coming out here to help out."


Figure 2. Portlight delivering supplies to a Winnie-Stowell Red Cross shelter. Apparently the canned cokes (not provided by Portlight) were only for lineman. The residents were only being allowed to drink water. Needless to say, the residents were very happy to see us, although there was some confusion as to whether they could actually get the supplies we delivered. Image credit: Storm Junkie.

Your contributions do make a difference, and you can read more about the effort at at stormjunkie's blog.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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463. Orcasystems
8:50 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Complete Update, with Both Hurricane Hunters ontask or enroute.

All Systems ... Atlantic
Caribbean System 93L ... complete with Models
Caribbean System 93L ... with Cloud Cover
Caribbean System 93L ... complete with Hurricane Hunter Plots (when ontask)
Carols System 94L ... complete with Models
Carols System 94L ... with Cloud Cover
Carols System 94L ... complete with Hurricane Hunter Plots (when ontask)
Present Satellite picture BOC Blob
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean
Cape Verde Blobs
CMC & ... The Carols
CMC & ... BOC
CMC & ... Maine/Nova Scotia
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
462. WxLogic
8:37 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting melwerle:
How far south do we think that 94 is going to go? Also, anyone have a clue on timeframes? I know for every storm, SOMEONE has to ask the question...so I'm going to ask it. I am leaving for PA in the morning...flying up there. Coming back to GA on Sat morning...just need to find out the time frame so I'm not stuck someplace.


I believe this is as far south it will go.

The new steering flow from 18Z shows that the High to the West has weakened a bit so it should start a more Westward track soon if I'm not mistaking.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928
461. Everette721
8:34 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Ok everyone don't talk at one time
460. SpicyAngel1072
8:24 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Someone has mentioned a FL hit in the next 2 weeks. Can someone please tell me which one to look at? Where are they seeing that?

Thank you in advance!!!
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
459. Vero1
8:19 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
NEW BLOOOOGGGGGGG!!!
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
458. fmbill
8:19 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
The key for 94L to be classified/named will be what the HH's find in the core. It will need to be a warm core system or it will just be considered a nor'easter.
Member Since: May 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 419
457. WxLogic
8:18 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting SFLGirl1:
LOL our news here (Palm Beach)is call the invests Thing 1 and Thing 2

Link


LMAO!!! Ignorance is blissed for them I guess...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928
456. melwerle
8:16 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
How far south do we think that 94 is going to go? Also, anyone have a clue on timeframes? I know for every storm, SOMEONE has to ask the question...so I'm going to ask it. I am leaving for PA in the morning...flying up there. Coming back to GA on Sat morning...just need to find out the time frame so I'm not stuck someplace.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
455. CybrTeddy
8:14 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
38 knots
(~ 43.7 mph)


From Recon in 94L.
Don't be surprised to see a vortex message here soon.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23571
454. CatastrophicDL
8:14 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Anyone notice the new blob blowing up convection at about 14N 39W? It looks to have some lower level vorticity it is trying to organize. Part of it is under 10 knots of sheer and seems to be moving into a more favorable area.
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
453. cycloone
8:13 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
My Tropics blog
Member Since: March 2, 2003 Posts: 65 Comments: 1009
452. Engine2
8:12 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
At last report they were at 32.883N 80.000W
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
451. Elena85Vet
8:11 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
446. Stormchaser2007
94LINVEST.55kts-1007mb-317N-750W


That's where they need to be.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 628
450. conchygirl
8:09 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Already a 65 MPH System? Shoot, the convection, circulation. Hello kyle?
5 pm will be interesting.
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
449. CybrTeddy
8:09 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
94LINVEST.55kts-1007mb-317N-750W


Already a 65 MPH System? Shoot, the convection, circulation. Hello kyle?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23571
448. Engine2
8:08 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
a 60MPH Invest - nice
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
446. Stormchaser2007
8:06 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
94LINVEST.55kts-1007mb-317N-750W
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
445. MIKEYZ
8:06 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
THE PERFECT STORM TAKE 2?

Shes winding up. Winds about 30 out of the ne here in town
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 32
444. Engine2
8:05 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Recon is just entering the waters of the Atlantic off the Georgia coast.
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
443. SpicyAngel1072
8:04 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting Vortex95:
yep CMC hinting at a TD/TS, heading west to WNW towards Fla Cuba in 1 1/2 to 2 weeks.


where is this system for FL?
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
442. RobDaHood
8:04 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
HaHa== We have bears, hogs, and armadillos. Don't think I've ever drank enough to mistake one for the other.

-rob
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
441. CybrTeddy
8:02 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
my 4:00 PM Update.

Tropical Disturbance Invest 93L.

Overnight, 93L rapidly became disorganized, likely due to Dry air, land interaction with Haiti, and wind shear. However, all signs point to a weak Tropical Storm in the Atlantic, Right now the NHC has lowed their chances of development, now down to a 20-50% Chance of becoming a system, and right with them, So do I.

93L has continued to not spin up a Surface Circulation, and will need to do so in order to fight off its Semi-Hostile environment.

Sub-Tropical Disturbance 94L
Over the past few day's, model's have been pointing at an Extra-tropical low to develop and turn into a Nor'easter, that appears to be happening, but in a different way, instead, its a Sub-Tropical system, 94L. Right now the NHC gives 94L a HIGH (50%>) for development. Recon is currently on route to 94L, I expect we will see Sub-Tropical Depression 11, or Sub-Tropical Storm Kyle later today.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23571
440. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:57 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
if you see the JMA put the intensity at 115 or 120.. the 1 minute sustained winds would be around 160-170 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
439. extreme236
7:56 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
94L looks like it is subtropical...core probably hasn't had time to warm enough to be tropical and the wind field hasn't had a lot of time to contract. Also, convection near and over the center is rather weak and confined to convective bands, classic for a subtropical system. If convection begins to deepen over the center and near it, then it shows a progression toward tropical status.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
438. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:55 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
434. Vortex95 7:52 PM GMT on September 24, 2008

ya the JMA doesn't raise the sustained winds very high like the other RSMC's
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
437. Elena85Vet
7:54 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Convection flaring again at 31.8N 75.3W

It's been pulsing there all day and seems to be the center.

Link
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 628
436. extreme236
7:53 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting Vortex95:
WPAC has quite low standard for a cat 5 105 knot winds?


10-min sustained though
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
435. Engine2
7:52 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Recon approaching the Georgia coastline
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
433. SFLGirl1
7:52 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting PcolaDan:


Well this kind of explains it doesn't it?
Man blames bear-hog mixup on beer LMAO


I actually live a few blocks from Lion Country and and I figured the guy may have had to many, there arent any bears near here LOL Lions and Rhinos yes, but no bears
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
432. extreme236
7:51 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
This image shows us the immediate concerns for the Atlantic.

Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
430. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:49 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
CybrTeddy.. from my WU archives for the Super Typhoon


Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
0:00 AM JST May 11 2008

Subject: Category 5 Typhoon east of Philippines

At 15:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Rammasun (0802) [915 hPa] located near 17.4N 131.9E had 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts up to 150 knots. The typhoon was reported moving north at 12 knots.

Storm-Force Winds
====================
120 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
======================
270 NM southwest from the center.
180 NM northeast from the center.

Forecast Intensity and Position
===============================
24 HRS: 21.6N 133.1E - 95 knots [CAT 4]
48 HRS: 26.3N 136.7E - 80 knots [CAT 3]
72 HRS: 33.4N 143.7E - 55 knots [CAT 2]

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
429. angiest
7:49 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting SFLGirl1:
LOL our news here (Palm Beach)is call the invests Thing 1 and Thing 2

Link


Where's the Cat in the Hat?
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
428. Elena85Vet
7:48 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting SFLGirl1:
LOL our news here (Palm Beach)is call the invests Thing 1 and Thing 2

Link


I like that. It's thinking out of the box. :)
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 628
427. PcolaDan
7:47 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting SFLGirl1:
LOL our news here (Palm Beach)is call the invests Thing 1 and Thing 2

Link


Well this kind of explains it doesn't it?
Man blames bear-hog mixup on beer LMAO
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
426. katlbeach
7:46 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Surf report for NE FL showing 20 - 25 mph winds

http://fluidgroove.net/
Member Since: September 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 42
425. RobDaHood
7:45 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting SFLGirl1:
LOL our news here (Palm Beach)is call the invests Thing 1 and Thing 2

Link


You've got to be kidding! ROFL
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
424. ATS3
7:44 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
recon at 30k flying over ga heading east
423. SFLGirl1
7:43 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
LOL our news here (Palm Beach)is call the invests Thing 1 and Thing 2

Link
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
422. RobDaHood
7:43 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
93L may find itself between a rock (94L) and a hard place (mid atlantic monster) soon. Have a feeling folks in Puerto Rico would get a great deal of satisfaction if they get to watch it ripped to shreds!

-rob
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 96 Comments: 31762
421. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:40 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
408. CybrTeddy 7:35 PM GMT on September 24, 2008

oh no, not the first.. Typhoon Rammasun was a super typhoon early this season. and was the first JMA "Category Five, intense typhoon" this year.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44740
420. Engine2
7:40 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting capefearspt:
Link
looks like it needs to get rid of some dry air
Looks like it maybe working to pinch off that dry slot of air
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
418. 7544
7:39 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
93l going backwards back to pr
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6690
417. capefearspt
7:38 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Link
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
416. capefearspt
7:38 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Link
looks like it needs to get rid of some dry air
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
415. Engine2
7:37 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Pressure starting to fall over the Northeast - High Pressure is pushing eastward out of the area
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
414. CybrTeddy
7:37 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting futuremet:
Looks like the GOM will have to be watched soon.


Was just about to say something about that, its an area of disturbed weather that I saw this morning.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23571
413. futuremet
7:36 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Looks like the GOM will have to be watched soon.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.