Threat lessens to U.S. from Dominican Republic disturbance 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2008

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Tropical disturbance 93L continues spin its wheels just inland along the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic, and is not in a hurry to go anywhere. Dominican Republic radar shows a broad circulation with a large area of rain, but the rain is not organized into low-level rain bands. Visible satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some over Hispaniola, but has decreased over nearby water areas. There is no low-level circulation apparent, and the Hurricane Hunters couldn't find one this afternoon, either. Wind shear remains about 15 knots, which is marginal for tropical storm development.

In the Dominican Republic, heavy rain has been limited to the extreme eastern end, near Punta Cana, where satellite estimates indicate up to ten inches of rain has fallen. Rainfall in the capital, Santo Domingo, has been about an inch today, according to three personal weather stations there. Additional heavy rains of 4-8 inches are likely today through Wednesday in portions of the Dominican Republic.

Haiti has thus far escaped heavy rains from 93L. I expect western Haiti will receive 1-3 inches of rain from 93L, and eastern portions may receive 3-6 inches. Heaviest rains in the Turks and Caicos islands and southeastern Bahamas should be in the 3-6 inch range. Western Puerto Rico may receive an additional 3-6 inches.


Figure 1. Forecast precipitation for the five day period ending Sunday morning 9/28/08 at 8 am EDT. A wet week with rainfall amounts up to four inches is predicted for much of the East Coast. Image credit: NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

The track forecast
The models are now in fairly good agreement that a strong coastal storm--which could be extratropical or subtropical--will develop off the coast of North Carolina tonight. This storm will affect coastal North Carolina like a weak tropical storm would, with sustained winds of 40 mph, tide levels up to six feet above normal, and 2-3 inches of rain. As 93L is drawn northwards, the two storms will interact, and 93L will get flung northwards towards New England or the Maritime Provinces of Canada. The U.S. East Coast can expect considerable rain for the four day period beginning on Wednesday (Figure 1), but I am expecting that most of this will be due to the coastal low drawing in large amounts of tropical moisture as it tracks north-northeast up the coast. I currently give 93L a 30% chance of hitting the U.S., 60% chance of hitting Canada, and 10% chance of recurving out to sea. There is a high amount of uncertainty with this forecast.

The intensity forecast
Wind shear remains near 15 knots. The current wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model keeps the shear at 5-15 knots for the remainder of the week. The GFDL and HWRF models are less aggressive than previous runs in intensifying 93L, and I doubt the storm would hit New England or Canada as anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm. There is a large amount of dry air to the northwest of 93L it will have to contend with, and a good potential it may encounter some high wind shear.

Links to follow
Dominican Republic radar
Puerto Rico radar
Cape Hatteras, NC weather

The Hurricane Ike "NEXT TRUCK CHALLENGE" continues
Two wunderground members, presslord and violet312s, have announced that they will match two dollars for every dollar in contributions made to portlight.org. This charity has really made a difference in some of the hard-hit areas of Texas and Louisiana affected by Hurricane Ike neglected by the traditional relief efforts. A quote from Paul Timmons (AKA Presslord), who has helped coordinate this effort:

1.) We have reached a total of $3500 in our Next Truck Challenge....which is enough to fund another truckload of requested supplies to Bridge City and Winnie TX...will leave first of next week...Violet and I will be poorer financially...but richer in the ways that matter...y'all render me speechless...

2.) Patrap is rolling there shortly in a truck so as to arrive at first light....

3.) I don't even wanna talk about the next challenge...


If we contribute heartily to the next challenge, you'll see why Paul does not want to talk about it!


Figure 2. Portlight delivering supplies to a Winnie-Stowell Red Cross shelter. Apparently the canned cokes (not provided by Portlight) were only for lineman. The residents were only being allowed to drink water. Needless to say, the residents were very happy to see us, although there was some confusion as to whether they could actually get the supplies we delivered. Image credit: Storm Junkie.

Your contributions do make a difference, and you can read more about the effort at at stormjunkie's blog.

I'll have an update Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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542. IKE
2:34 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting Randyman:
IKE you can expect an invoice in the mail at the end of the season for all of the damage 'your' hurricane has caused to Southest Texas and Southwest Louisiana. Payment arrangements may be allowed as a one time courtesy. Failure to pay as agreed may result in future wage garnishments of your paytroll checks.


LOL!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
541. fldude99
1:59 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting Dutchlady:


HOPING!!!!


Thats a done deal IMO..it's all over but the shouting now
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 574
540. Dutchlady
1:41 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting conchygirl:
Thinking the tropical season is going to end early since it is starting to really cool off which would be a good thing!


HOPING!!!!
Member Since: September 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
539. indianrivguy
1:37 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Hey Squid.. sorry about the stuff, really glad you and your family are ok. Thanks for stopping in giving us some scoop. Mine and my family's prayers are with you.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2564
538. TampaSpin
1:34 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Interesting to see how the 2 will interconnect.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
537. TampaSpin
1:30 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
This is the MODELS CMC, GFDL, NGPS, and UKMET

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
536. MissNadia
1:30 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting MissNadia:
Good Morning from Wilmington..with reference to our coastal storm....
not much has changed here in the past 24 hours. We now have some high
clouds to the Southeast but that's it. Winds in my yard N at 20+25 kts
press 30.06 in. Off-shore at Frying Pan shoals it's NNE 27+35 kts with
10 foot seas. Water temp is 78 deg F. Local T.V. sez it will go down
hill this p.m.
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3002
535. WxLogic
1:30 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
09Z Current steering flow for 94L would indicate a W to WSW type movement for the time being.

There's a pretty strong 1030 High to its NW.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
534. Squid28
1:27 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Hello Everyone,
Just dropping in for the first time since Ike rearranged my world. We basically had our A** handed to us, we have lost our home, the majority of the contents and one car to the storm. My family and I are safe though, and that is all that really matters to me now. I am not staying on long, but wanted to express my thanks for all those who have in some way helped out with the recovery efforts. I don't know if I have been the beneficciary of anyones generosity on here or not but I know you have made some ones life better at least for a little while (a friend overnighted me some home made cookies, they were the best). I don't know how to send a mail message to Patrap and Press, but if some one could send this to them on my behalf I would apprecite it. They appear to have been very busy lately.

Sincereley,
Bryan
Shoreacres, TX

p.s. sorry of their are typo's I'm exhausted and just returning to work.
Member Since: May 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 343
533. TampaSpin
1:26 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Looks like NY and MASS. may still get some.

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
532. MissNadia
1:23 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Good Morning from Wilmington..with reference to our coastal storm.... not much has changed here in the past 24 hours. We now have some high clouds to the Southeast but that's it. Winds in my yard N at 20+25 kts press 30.06 in. Off-shore at Frying Pan shoals it's NNE 27+35 kts with 10 foot seas. Water temp is 78 deg F. Local T.V. sez it will go down hill this p.m.
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3002
531. NEwxguy
1:22 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting stillwaiting:



thats 93l,not 94l!!!!


that sure looks like the south carolina coast
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15840
530. champagnedrmz
1:18 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
What kind of models are those? Looks like they are starting nowhere near center of circulation. Very confusing.
529. nolesjeff
1:17 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Link

NEW BLOG
Member Since: June 20, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391
528. Enola
1:16 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting champagnedrmz:
Official according to Navy


Here, try this:

Link
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 269
527. champagnedrmz
1:16 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting kmanislander:
If you all read back a bit I did post that the floater had updated. Initially, I tried refreshing several times before it responded but the actual loop was current.


I know Kman. Unfortunately by the time things post you don't always see the answer before it.
526. conchygirl
1:14 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
520. champagnedrmz 6:09 AM PDT on September 24, 2008
Guys Taz is correct make sure you are refreshing the site. There is a floater up for 94L today off the coast.



thank you sure
think 93L will be pulled into 94L or go out to sea?
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
525. kmanislander
1:14 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
If you all read back a bit I did post that the floater had updated. Initially, I tried refreshing several times before it responded but the actual loop was current.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
524. Orcasystems
1:13 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
93l Model shift and Hurricane Hunter




Click to enlarge

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
523. Tazmanian
1:12 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
520. champagnedrmz 6:09 AM PDT on September 24, 2008
Guys Taz is correct make sure you are refreshing the site. There is a floater up for 94L today off the coast.



thank you sure
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
522. Tazmanian
1:11 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
510. kmanislander 6:05 AM PDT on September 24, 2008
506. Tazmanian 1:03 PM GMT on September 24, 2008

Taz, that is an old image from 15th September. If you run the loop you will get the developing system 94L.

Some sort of error


my map says SEP 24th and i am looking at 94L right now


i dont no why evere one like too down play things all the time
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
521. stillwaiting
1:10 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting BmoreJJ:


that is a map of the North & South Carolina coasts, 93L is in the dominican right now...



the first map he put up was 93l,the eastern bahamas where in the picture,NOT the NC coast!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
520. champagnedrmz
1:09 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Guys Taz is correct make sure you are refreshing the site. There is a floater up for 94L today off the coast.
519. kmanislander
1:09 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
So long for now
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
518. fldude99
1:09 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
After stepping outside my front door this morning and getting that blast of cool air, I am finally feeling the end of storm season..at least for those of us up here in the FL panhandle
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 574
517. Tazmanian
1:08 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
the HH found a 1005mb with 93L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
516. kmanislander
1:08 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Link to sat imagery

Link
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515. RyanFSU
1:07 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
NCEP's NMM WRF from OOZ composite reflectivity, subtropical entity

Member Since: February 13, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
514. BmoreJJ
1:07 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting stillwaiting:



thats 93l,not 94l!!!!


that is a map of the North & South Carolina coasts, 93L is in the dominican right now...
513. kmanislander
1:06 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
The image on the floater just updated
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
512. Engine2
1:06 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Taz can you post the link to that floater please
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
511. champagnedrmz
1:05 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
When you zoom in on 93L I wonder if it is actually going NE or if the ULL is just pulling it's convection and making look like it is moving that way.
510. kmanislander
1:05 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
506. Tazmanian 1:03 PM GMT on September 24, 2008

Taz, that is an old image from 15th September. If you run the loop you will get the developing system 94L.

Some sort of error
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
509. stillwaiting
1:04 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
good AM 94L the SDD site this put up a Floater for 94L





thats 93l,not 94l!!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
508. Engine2
1:04 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
That answers my question
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
507. Engine2
1:03 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Will they move a floater over to 94L?
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
506. Tazmanian
1:03 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
good AM 94L the SDD site this put up a Floater for 94L


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
505. MahFL
1:01 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
NC vis sat pic
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3547
504. kmanislander
1:00 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Good morning

Well, finally, 93L has started the long awaited move to what looks to be NE, at least for the moment. That will be welcome news for Hispaniola and PR.

It will be interesting to see whether the forecasted interaction between it and the system developing off the SE coast of the US actually takes place or if 93L just keeps on heading out into the central Atl.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
503. conchygirl
1:00 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting FLDART1:
Good Morning all. anybody got any coffee? lol
Feeling a little tired this morning? I imagine you are beginning to run out of steam.
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
502. Orcasystems
1:00 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Complete Blog update

Caribbean System 93L ... complete with Models
Caribbean System 93L ... with Cloud Cover
Caribbean System 93L ... complete with Hurricane Hunter Plots (when ontask)

Present Satellite picture BOC Blob
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean
Cape Verde Blobs
CMC & ... The Carols
CMC & ... BOC
CMC & ... Maine/Nova Scotia
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
501. Orcasystems
12:59 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Morning everyone.. You have to love it when Hockey Season starts :) Canucks 2-0 in the preseason.

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
500. largeeyes
12:59 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
The breeze continues here in New Bern. Nothing damaging or remotely close to it. I'm guessing to get real surface wind speeds the HH will have to sample south of the LLC. A lot of the wind now is due to the pressure gradient with the high to the north.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
499. FLDART1
12:57 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Good Morning all. anybody got any coffee? lol
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 201
498. conchygirl
12:55 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Thinking the tropical season is going to end early since it is starting to really cool off which would be a good thing!
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
497. TampaSpin
12:53 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
494. NEwxguy 12:45 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting TampaSpin:

Morning,Tim, we're in the playoffs with you now,good luck to you guys.


Ya same at ya......this gets exciting now..looks like you will travel to Calif.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
496. HyDrO420
12:46 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Can someone tell me the dif. between a sub-tropical and a tropical storm?
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 87
495. conchygirl
12:46 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:


Its up on the Navy site
That makes it official. Stay dry up there - we are getting lots of rain here from the system and assume once 93L gets moving, we could see some more.
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
494. NEwxguy
12:45 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting TampaSpin:
483. VBgirl 12:37 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
last night the weather forecast was saying this system off the coast was non-tropical. Surprised me this morning! Wind is blowing pretty good here already...has been since yesterday.


Its sub-tropical........


Morning,Tim, we're in the playoffs with you now,good luck to you guys.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15840
493. Prgal
12:45 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting stormpetrol:
Looks like 93L is starting to take off towards the NE.

Please be wrong. We dont need more rain here in PR.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 921
492. RescueAFR
12:45 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Good Morning Everyone..
When and who makes the call to identify a new "Invest" system..ie 93L. Is it when wave or low pressure grows to a certain point? And is that call made only by the NHC?

Good day ~
Steve
Member Since: September 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 79

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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