Little change to Domincan Republic disturbance 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on September 23, 2008

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Tropical disturbance 93L continues to hang out just inland along the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic, and is not a hurry to go anywhere. Dominican Republic radar shows a broad circulation with a large area rain, but the rain is not organized into low-level rain bands, and is mostly to the southeast. Visible satellite loops show very little heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of 93L, near the northeast coast of Hispaniola. The heavy thunderstorm activity is mostly to the south and east, but there are no signs that the center of 93L will relocate itself under the heavy thunderstorm activity, and I do not expect this to happen. The thunderstorm activity is displaced to the southeast because strong upper-level winds from the west are pushing the thunderstorms away from the west side of the storm. The wind shear remains about 15 knots, which is marginal for tropical storm development.

The record rains of 93L--as much as 24 inches in 24 hours--have left a gigantic mess in Puerto Rico. Several highways are blocked by flood waters and landslides, and one bridge was washed out in Guayanilla by a flooded river. All but two rivers have fallen below flood stage this morning, and the worst of the rains and flooding are done. Damage to agriculture in Puerto Rico from the storm has been estimated at $14 million.

In the Dominican Republic, heavy rain has been limited to the extreme eastern end, near Punta Cana, where satellite estimates indicate up to six inches of rain has fallen. Rainfall in the capital, Santo Domingo, has been less than an inch, according to three personal weather stations there. Additional heavy rains of 4-8 inches are likely today and Wednesday in many portions of the Dominican Republic from 93L.

Haiti has thus far escaped heavy rains from 93L. It will be a close call, but I believe Haiti will only receive 2-4 inches of rain from 93L, except for the extreme northeastern part of the country near the Dominican Republic border, where 3-6 inches may fall. Highest rains in the Turk and Caicos islands and southeastern Bahamas should be in the 3-6 inch range.


Figure 1. Rainfall rate from 93L as estimated by microwave satellite imagery at 6:30 am EDT 9/23/08. The heaviest rains of 1.4 inches per hour were just south of the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

The forecast
Well, 93L has not done what we expected, and continues to resist the models' efforts to pull it to the north. The northward turn has been delayed by about a day behind what the models originally forecast, likely delaying the eventual impact of 93L on New England until Saturday. I have no choice but to continue to forecast that 93L will turn to the north in the next 24 hours. A developing coastal storm off the coast of North Carolina should impart enough of a northward motion in the steering currents to make this happen. Wind shear over 93L has also refused to obey model forecasts, and remains at a higher-than-expected 15 knots. The current wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model keeps the shear at 15-20 knots for the remainder of the week. Other models show lower shear, but intensification of 93L into a Category 1 or 2 hurricane later this week, as has been consistently forecast by the GFDL and HWRF models, is probably overdone. There is also a large amount of dry air to the northwest of 93L that will probably interfere with development.

The models are now in fairly good agreement that a strong coastal storm--which could be extratropical or subtropical--will develop off the coastal of North Carolina today. This low will probably bring winds near 40 mph to the coastal waters of North Carolina on Wednesday. As 93L is drawn northwards, the two storms will probably rotate cyclonically around a common center (the Fujiwhara effect), sending 93L hurtling into the coast somewhere between North Carolina and Nova Scotia. Considering that we are trying to forecast a complicated interaction between a storm that hasn't formed yet and another storm that refuses to obey the forecast models, confidence in the forecasts for both of these storms is low. Residents along the entire U.S. and Canadian coast from Georgia to Nova Scotia should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions this week. In Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, this would likely be due to the extratropical low pressure system. New England may get a 1-2 punch on Saturday and Sunday: a tropical storm, followed by heavy rains drawn up from the south from the remnants of the extratropical storm.

Links to follow
Dominican Republic radar
Puerto Rico radar
Video of a boat that weathered Hurricane Ike in Galveston Bay

The Hurricane Ike "NEXT TRUCK CHALLENGE" continues
Two wunderground members, presslord and violet312s, have announced that they will match two dollars for every dollar in contributions made to portlight.org. This charity has really made a difference in some of the hard-hit areas of Texas and Louisiana affected by Hurricane Ike neglected by the traditional relief efforts. A quote from Paul Timmons (AKA Presslord), who has helped coordinate this effort:

My wife just called...they will NOT be staying in Bridge City. They unloaded half the truck there, and the folks from Winnie TX (on the Bolivar Peninsula) called by radio and begged them to bring the rest of the supplies there. So, they are on the road to Winnie, where they will stay at the fire house in the dark. She and SJ are in tears...my wife quoted one of the Bridge City officials: "Thank God for y'all.


Figure 2. A Florida fireman sits behind supplies that Portlight Strategies delivered to the Winnie-Stowell fire station. Image credit: Storm Junkie.

Your contributions do make a difference, and you can read more about the effort at at stormjunkie's blog.

I'll have an update later today, after the Hurricane Hunters have had a chance to check out the storm.

Jeff Masters

Winnie Ike Damage (StormJunkie)
Picture speaks for itself...
Winnie Ike Damage
Could not do it... (StormJunkie)
After dropping some supplies at the Bridge City Fire Department, we chatted with the fireman for a little while. One brought up Bolivar. I asked if they really wanted to see the pictures. I sat, and brought up "The short but eventful life of Ike" pictures. As I started to show them the pictures I realized that I could not do it. Showing the pictures, for the first time, to the men and women who have years of family vacation memories was just too much and it was not my place. They are going to have to deal with this as a community for a long time to come. It takes a lot to make me cry.
Could not do it...

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663. Vero1
11:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
662. listenerVT
11:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2008

649. Houstonian 10:54 PM

Many thanks for the laugh!

I am sending that along to a good friend who lived across from the Galveston Island seawall, and evacuated to Austin.

She is a chaplain for those in need, and wants to go back to Galveston to help.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5597
661. riograndpa
11:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2008


attack of the "BLOG FOG!!!"
660. tropics21
11:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting StormW:
649. Houstonian 6:54 PM EDT on September 23, 2008
You know you’re from the Gulf Coast when:


Jim Cantore takes up a 6 month residence in your neighborhood!
LOL great one Storm W
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 263
659. NOLAsteve
11:13 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Houstonian-

LOL. I'm still rolling around the floor laughing. After living here thru Andrew, Georges, Lily, Ivan, Katrina, Rita, Gustav and Ike, I can identify with every line of your list. What a classic. I've printed it and will put it on My fridge every June 1st!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
658. tropics21
11:09 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting billy305:
...
new convection exploding near i think the center might be
Link
convection was a lot batter this morning looks to have scattered
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 263
656. listenerVT
11:02 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting Cotillion:


I guess they asked it. ;)



That's it! ROFLMEO! :~D
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5597
655. TideWaterWeather
11:02 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting Seastep:


Have to wait for them to level off to get any meaningful readings.


been 1007-1006 (EXTRAP) all the way across the bahamas, i dont think it has anything to do with flight level. Was just commenting that there is broad low pressure all around to the north, if the RECON surface pressures are accurate anyway.

Member Since: September 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 178
654. KEHCharleston
11:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
649. Houstonian

Oh..My..Gawd - That is so funny and so true.

Houstonian, your post is a real keeper. I am copying and pasting and putting in my "pull it out later when you need it file"

Bless you.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
653. Bobbyweather
10:58 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting Cotillion:


I guess they asked it. ;)

No, if it stalls, it will stay stationary, or the same as going 0deg at 0mph.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 91 Comments: 2679
651. Cotillion
10:55 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting listenerVT:
Invest 93's report says:

Movement N at 0mph.

If it's 0mph, how do they know it's moving N?

LOL!


I guess they asked it. ;)
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
650. largeeyes
10:54 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
627 seastep

I think without a doubt that it has lost that convection. It is obviously building new confection, but what was to the SE is no longer with the storm center.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1462
648. riograndpa
10:52 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting New2SOFLA:


since its moving north and the low off sc is strengthening should it pull whatever ccomes of 93l out to sea? or farther north and east? yest. the models had it hitting nj or nyc directly


depends on how strong 93 is at any given point of time. i believe the models expected a stronger storm at this stage which would make a turn north probable. its a short system with nothing but wobble. imo
647. New2SOFLA
10:52 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
tha
Quoting Engine2:
Not necessarily, remember the models dont have a definite point of circulation to initiate off but if and when they do, they will better handle the future forecast. Also alot rides on the trough, nor'easter, and the weakness in stearing currents. Still to early to say but tomorrow we should have a better idea of exactly whats going on and the future of 93L. Models will have the tendency to shift east then shift back west just like a windshield wiper. Don't count anyone out yet


thanks 4 the info ill just keep watching it hopefully its out with the fish
646. WxLogic
10:51 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
bbl
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
645. kimoskee
10:50 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting listenerVT:
Invest 93's report says:

Movement N at 0mph.

If it's 0mph, how do they know it's moving N?

LOL!


I was wondering the same thing!!! ;-)
Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
644. Engine2
10:50 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting New2SOFLA:


since its moving north and the low off sc is strengthening should it pull whatever ccomes of 93l out to sea? or farther north and east? yest. the models had it hitting nj or nyc directly
Not necessarily, remember the models dont have a definite point of circulation to initiate off but if and when they do, they will better handle the future forecast. Also alot rides on the trough, nor'easter, and the weakness in stearing currents. Still to early to say but tomorrow we should have a better idea of exactly whats going on and the future of 93L. Models will have the tendency to shift east then shift back west just like a windshield wiper. Don't count anyone out yet
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
643. WxLogic
10:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Friendly reminder... hehe.

GOM will need to be watch this weekend into next week... there's some indication that a weakness and return flow from the Carib.. into the GOM could potentially sping something up and shoot it towards the eastern GOM states. This has been based on consistencies with Global models.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
642. Elena85Vet
10:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting Seastep:
recon now descending...
Quoting Seastep:
recon now descending...


CLICK!

LOL J/K
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 628
641. listenerVT
10:48 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Invest 93's report says:

Movement N at 0mph.

If it's 0mph, how do they know it's moving N?

LOL!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5597
640. Seastep
10:48 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting TideWaterWeather:


Been noticing pressure is low well north of 93L.
they are at 1006 still pretty far north of Hispaniola


Have to wait for them to level off to get any meaningful readings.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
639. Caffinehog
10:48 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Has anyone been watching the BOC lately? There's definately convection, an upper level anticyclone, and low shear. Ascat shows a circulation. Satellite loops show good outflow to the east. The only thing preventing development is proximity to land and marginal shear. If it stays offshore, we might be looking at development.
shear
Member Since: June 5, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 40
638. New2SOFLA
10:47 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting riograndpa:


does what mean??


since its moving north and the low off sc is strengthening should it pull whatever ccomes of 93l out to sea? or farther north and east? yest. the models had it hitting nj or nyc directly
637. Engine2
10:46 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Can still see 2 different points of rotation on the DR Radar Link
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
636. boatmanoki
10:44 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Here in se NC it been blowing 15 to 20 with gusts in the upper 20`s
635. Beachfoxx
10:44 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Storm,

If:
1. I knew enough about weather I'd love to help
2. Can we go sailing around the globe w/ him? ahh... now that would be devine!
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!

I posted this a few days ago. I'm looking for at least one more person with solid forecasting skills to join my forecast team. So far, I have cchs, and caneaddict. We will be forecasting for a good cause, as stated in this excerpt of an email I received from UWalkTheMall. I have spoken to both her, and Kris Scheppe on the phone.

Please email me here on WU if you have an interest.

Thanks!

"Storm"

Mankind’s passion to sail the seas is a desire that is ingrained in many humans. This desire is what has motivated and inspired many of the great sailors from the Vikings to the Renaissance explorers such as Columbus and Magellan. This desire is one that still motivates and inspires sailors today.
Kristopher Scheppe is equally inspired and motivated by a great love of sailing the seas. Just as Magellan and his crew used their passion to become the first people to successfully sail around the world, Scheppe strives to become the first legally blind person to successfully sail around the world.
At a very young age Scheppe was diagnosed with Retinitis Pigmentosa (RP). RP is a genetic eye disease, which results in gradual loss of peripheral vision and legal-blindness in most cases. Kris can only see directly ahead through a small patch of central vision, what most would refer to as “tunnel vision”.

Kris will be needing a team of weather people to watch the daily weather as well as the seas ahead during his voyage around the world. Would you be interested in participating in this voyage or would you possibly know of others who might.
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29385
634. HeliChopper
10:44 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Unofficial word on City of Houston Debris Removal per one of their managers over a beer.

They're holding off until the power is restored in each pick-up area. They don't want the trucks to interfere with Centerpoint.
633. TideWaterWeather
10:44 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting Seastep:
recon now descending...


Been noticing pressure is low well north of 93L.
they are at 1006 still pretty far north of Hispaniola
Member Since: September 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 178
632. billy305
10:44 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
convection seems to rotate around a fixed point (near south coast of hipaniola) lately in the floaters
631. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47010
630. Seastep
10:38 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
recon now descending...
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
629. extreme236
10:37 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Upper level anticyclone has formed over the center of 93L producing 10kts of shear according to CIMSS analysis. Once it moves northwestward north of DR should see development.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
628. riograndpa
10:37 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting New2SOFLA:
so does this means NYC and Jersey are out of the woods for the most art....because it really wasnt looking good yesterday...any thoughts?


does what mean??
627. Seastep
10:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
623 largeyes

I was thinking same thing and that the large area of convection to the SE was detaching.

Not so sure anymore in looking at the recent frames.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
626. New2SOFLA
10:34 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
so does this means NYC and Jersey are out of the woods for the most art....because it really wasnt looking good yesterday...any thoughts?
625. KEHCharleston
10:34 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
RE: 604

We were without electricity for 3 1/2 weeks after Hugo. Didn't use a generator, and in some ways I think we were better off - you are right, that noise gets real old, real fast.

Where do you get your gas and ice? From your post it sounded like someone was delivering it.

The debris will be with you for quite sometime.
Kids will want to climb the debris, but there will be a snake etc hazard.

When Christmas was rolling around, I wondered if I should string lights on the debris. As it turned out, I did not have to. It started snowing (Christmas Eve, I think) and Christmas was one of the prettiest I have ever seen. Literally a gift from heaven.

It was about 5 years before I would have a real Christmas tree in the house. After loosing so many trees it was like looking at a corpse.

Now only a little less than 20 years later, only those with long memories of what it looked like before would know we ever had such a storm.

You will be amazed at how neighbors pull together. Strangely some of my fondest memories were of the time after the storm with friends and family.

If you do not lose a love one, the rest is stuff.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
624. Skyepony (Mod)
10:33 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Ya'll can say conspiricy theorists.. We saw the law pass after Katrina, Bush made it so they can turn the data off when ever. Never seen bouy blackouts like '06... That seemed pretty clear the recon got turned off today the moment decent started, as while they were flying NHC was commenting on what recon found. Usually with transmission probs it shows up after the flight & nothing..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 226 Comments: 39434
623. largeeyes
10:33 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
93L growing in size is a sign of weakness. The convection isn't being held in by the center and is just wandering off with the shear.

On a nowcast point, it's been blowing here in E NC all day long with mid teens to low twenties winds and gusts around 30 all day.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1462
622. HeliChopper
10:33 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting Skyepony:
Helicop~ I just stumbled across this. Click pic again for super close up.



Bingo.... Thanks a bunch.
620. HeliChopper
10:31 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting Houstonian:
Going on 10 days - no power - the generator humm has become almost unberable - huge piles of debri remain all around and this is the FIRST day i have'nt had to wait for 2 hours or more for gas and ice... the city remains in gridlock due to most of the traffic lights remaning inoperable, what used to take 20 mins now takes 1hr and half.. none of the open grocery stores have replinshed their perishables or produce.. and not a power truck in sight! All that is outside now is, just downed trees.. downed power lines, and noise pollution from 100's of generators running in sequence...

SO all you wishcasters keep up the good work!!
you can have em all!!


Houstonian,

Let me try to make you feel better.... I have one of the managers with Centerpoint living with me because they don't have power yet. They live in the Montrose, within walking distance from downtown.

What area are you in, I'll make sure that you're on the list.
619. Skyepony (Mod)
10:27 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Helicop~ I just stumbled across this. Click pic again for super close up.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 226 Comments: 39434
618. Seastep
10:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting Engine2:
wow 93L just keeps getting bigger in coverage - shear must have lessened a bit


Just happened in the last six hours. Now almost 600 miles across.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
617. DellOperator
10:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting Elena85Vet:


Brings back bad memories. I hope you get things in order . I don't mean to be a downer but, by the time y'all get to shut your generators off you'll be hearing nail guns for another 3-4 months. That gets old fast too.


I am afraid the next time I race at the drag strip the sound of the generators in the pits are going to send me into shell shock.
Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 210
616. Engine2
10:19 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
wow 93L just keeps getting bigger in coverage - shear must have lessened a bit
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
615. WxLogic
10:19 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
To be expected... the 18Z packages are starting to show basically nothing being left out of this system when it does decide to exit DR. Shear combined with poor organization pretty much will leave the Gale center to move alone towards the NE.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
614. billy305
10:19 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting Elena85Vet:


Brings back bad memories. I hope you get things in order . I don't mean to be a downer but, by the time y'all get to shut your generators off you'll be hearing nail guns for another 3-4 months. That gets old fast too.
it reminds me of wilma
2 weeks no power (miami)
613. TEXASYANKEE43
10:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
604. Houstonian 10:06 PM GMT on September 23, 2008



I feel your pain man. I live in Liberty. Power came back on last night and all my ac,hotwaterheater refrigerator are fried.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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