Heavy rains from 93L move into the Dominican Republic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:53 PM GMT on September 22, 2008

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Tropical disturbance 93L continues to dump torrential rains on Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the eastern Dominican Republic. The storm is being blamed for four deaths in Puerto Rico--two from drowning, and two from heart attacks. The southeastern county of Patillas recorded 24 inches of rain in 24 hours. The Rio Gurabo River rose 25 feet in just 12 hours today, peaking at just over 30 feet high--12 feet over flood stage. This broke the record flood set in 1998 during Hurricane Georges at this station (Figure 1).


Figure 1. Height of the Rio Gurabo River in southeast Puerto Rico during the passage of 93L on September 22, 2008. The river rose from a height of five feet to 30 feet in just 12 hours. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey. To see an interactive map of stream flow data, use the wundermap for Puerto Rico, and turn on the "USGS River Height" layer.

Data from the Hurricane Hunters, Dominican Republic radar, and visible satellite loops indicate that the center of 93L has tracked west-northwest along the north coast of the Dominican Republic today, just inland. The storm does appear to have a closed low-level circulation, and a limited (but increasing) amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. Wind shear of 15-20 knots due to strong upper-level westerly winds is keeping most of 93L's heavy thunderstorm activity well south and east of the storm. These thunderstorms will continue to bring up to eight inches of rain to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Tuesday night. The Hurricane Hunters found a large area of winds in the 30-35 mph range, and one could argue that this is already a tropical depression. However, unless the center pops off the coast in the next 12 hours, the storm could get significantly disrupted by Hispaniola, and NHC is waiting to see how this land interaction goes before naming it a tropical depression.

Here's NHC's latest take on 93L:

special tropical disturbance statement
445 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2008

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft and surface observations indicate that the broad low pressure area...currently located over the eastern Dominican Republic...is becoming better defined. However...the associated showers and thunderstorms are poorly organized at this time due to upper-level westerly winds. Conditions are expected to become more favorable for development... and the center of the low is expected to move into the Atlantic north of the Dominican Republic during the next 24 hours. Therefore...this system could become a tropical depression at any time as it moves slowly northwestward over the next couple of days. Regardless of whether or not this system becomes a tropical depression...it will continue to produce very heavy rainfall over Puerto Rico...the U.S. And British Virgin Islands...and the Dominican Republic through Monday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Interests in Puerto Rico...the U.S. And British Virgin Islands...the Dominican Republic...Haiti...the Turks and Caicos Islands...and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system and any products issued by their respective weather forecast offices.

Expect heavy rains of up to 10-15 inches to affect the eastern Dominican Republic today through Wednesday from this slow moving storm. Since most of 93L's heavy thunderstorm activity is on its east side, it currently appears that Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas will see less rain, perhaps 3-6 inches.

The intensity forecast
Wind shear is marginal for development, about 15-20 knots. Shear is forecast to drop to 5-10 knots Tuesday and Wednesday which should allow 93L to intensify into a 50-60 mph tropical storm. There is a window of opportunity for it to reach Category 1 hurricane strength before Friday, when it crosses north of Virginia (assuming it doesn't make landfall in North or South Carolina). Wind shear is forecast to increase to 15-20 knots and water temperatures will cool below 26°C on Friday, which should induce weakening.

The track forecast
The models agree on a slow west-northwesterly motion for 93L today, with a turn to the northwest or north-northwest on Tuesday. An extratropical storm is expected to develop off the coast of South Carolina by Wednesday, and five of our six reliable models predict that 93L and the extratropical storm will rotate cyclonically around a common center (the Fujiwhara effect), sending 93L hurtling into the U.S. East Coast on Friday somewhere between North Carolina and Massachusetts. The outlier is the UKMET model, which predicts that 93L will absorb the energy that would have gone into creating the extratropical low. This might convert 93L into a hybrid subtropical storm that would affect the coast of North and South Carolina late this week with sustained winds in the 50-60 mph range. Considering that we are trying to forecast a complicated interaction between two storms that have yet to form, the current model forecasts for 93L are highly uncertain. Residents along the entire U.S. East Coast from Georgia to Maine should anticipate the possibility of a strong tropical storm affecting them by Friday.

Links to follow
Dominican Republic radar
Puerto Rico radar
San Juan, Puerto Rico weather

Announcing the Hurricane Ike "NEXT TRUCK CHALLENGE"
Two wunderground members, presslord and violet312s, have announced that they will match two dollars for every dollar in contributions made to portlight.org. This charity has really made a difference in some of the hard-hit areas of Texas and Louisiana affected by Hurricane Ike neglected by the traditional relief efforts. A quote from Paul Timmons (AKA Presslord), who has helped coordinate this effort:

My wife just called...they will NOT be staying in Bridge City. They unloaded half the truck there, and the folks from Winnie TX (on the Bolivar Peninsula) called by radio and begged them to bring the rest of the supplies there. So, they are on the road to Winnie, where they will stay at the fire house in the dark. She and SJ are in tears...my wife quoted one of the Bridge City officials: "Thank God for y'all.

Your contributions do make a difference, and you can read more about the effort at at stormjunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters

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1083. MahFL
4:13 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
I think the coc is now clearly in view south of DR.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3465
1082. Orcasystems
3:09 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Complete Refresh

Caribbean System 93L ... complete with Models

Caribbean System 93L ... with Cloud Cover

Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean

Cape Verde Blobs

CMC & ... The Carols, Part One

CMC & ... NY City

CMC & ... The Carols, Part Duex

Back in couple hours
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1081. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53600
1080. teckchick
3:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting BmoreJJ:


Damn, guess I will not be doing any deep sea fishing this weekend.


prob not, then again with our weather you just never know :)
1079. BmoreJJ
2:55 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting teckchick:


Forecasters here are saying that we will be having rough weather throughout the weekend.


Damn, guess I will not be doing any deep sea fishing this weekend.
1078. nolesjeff
2:52 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Link

NEW BLOG
Member Since: June 20, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391
1077. Engine2
2:50 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Is it me or does it seem as if the northern batch of convection (where the coc is said to be) is pulling away from the southern convection?
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
1076. teckchick
2:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting BmoreJJ:
Thanks, coast of Carolina. Any idea when it will clear out of that region?


Forecasters here are saying that we will be having rough weather throughout the weekend.
1074. Chicklit
2:47 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Still looking for moving north...
Link
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11289
1073. teckchick
2:45 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Am I seeing things or is an eye forming in invest 93?
1072. Elena85Vet
2:45 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting conchygirl:
Interesting Elena.


Yeah, I was looking for a different RADAR loop out of DR so I could see the west side of the storm. The one in PuntaCana doesn't have good resolution anymore and is quickly loosing sensitivity at long range. I thought it was 93l at first. Then had to do a double take.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 628
1071. BmoreJJ
2:43 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Thanks, coast of Carolina. Any idea when it will clear out of that region?
1070. NEwxguy
2:43 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting conchygirl:
He was here this morning and working on updates.


thanks,haven't seen him in a while
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 877 Comments: 15711
1069. conchygirl
2:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:
anyone seen Tampa lately?
He was here this morning and working on updates.
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
1068. NEwxguy
2:41 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
anyone seen Tampa lately?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 877 Comments: 15711
1067. teckchick
2:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting HIEXPRESS:


http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/subtropical.asp


thanks for that link, reading it made sense.
1066. conchygirl
2:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting Elena85Vet:
Here's FAY. Hit Play. LOLLink

Sorry for the double, forgot to link first time. :)
Interesting Elena.
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
1065. NEwxguy
2:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting teckchick:


Are you having a lot of wind there today? The ocean is rolling.


not yet,its beautiful up here right now,not expecting anything until thursday night
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 877 Comments: 15711
1064. largeeyes
2:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Winds are 13/25 here in New Bern, NC. Definitely see the trees dancing about and the clouds just racing by from my window seat here...
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
1063. HIEXPRESS
2:39 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting Engine2:
Yea one way or another we are either under the gun from a cold core or both.


E-2, 10-20?
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
1062. teckchick
2:37 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:


some of our worst nor'easter's here in the northeast have come in October and November


Are you having a lot of wind there today? The ocean is rolling.
1061. HIEXPRESS
2:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting teckchick:
hi again,
can anyone explain why the Low of NC is not considered a tropical system?

Thanks in advance


http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/subtropical.asp
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
1060. Elena85Vet
2:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Here's FAY. Hit Play. LOLLink

Sorry for the double, forgot to link first time. :)
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 628
1059. PcolaDan
2:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2008

...then, I could be seeing things (you know...when ya get old...your eyes go.)

Thanks. Think I see it now. Just had to figure out which of the 3 lenses to use.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1058. nolesjeff
2:35 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
I hear that Storm, i think i see it. thanks again
Member Since: June 20, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391
1057. NEwxguy
2:34 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting teckchick:
Living on the coast of NC, we often get Nor'easters, and tropical systems. I am having more wind today than we did with Hannah a couple of weeks ago. I always thoughts Nor'easters were more common during the winter.
BTW, you guys know your weather, I enjoy reading what you say.


some of our worst nor'easter's here in the northeast have come in October and November
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 877 Comments: 15711
1056. AtmosphericWrath
2:34 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting nolesjeff:


Storm, are you seeing a little wiggle in low level clouds? I am also trying to see what you see. thanks


Based on Storm's IR link I definitely see defined movement in this location. The low clouds perhaps some mid-level are pushing back to the W-WSW.
Member Since: September 6, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
1055. Engine2
2:34 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Yea one way or another we are either under the gun from a cold core or both.
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
1054. Elena85Vet
2:34 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Here's Fay. Hit play. LOL

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?47
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 628
1052. teckchick
2:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Living on the coast of NC, we often get Nor'easters, and tropical systems. I am having more wind today than we did with Hannah a couple of weeks ago. I always thoughts Nor'easters were more common during the winter.
BTW, you guys know your weather, I enjoy reading what you say.
1051. zoomiami
2:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting Cazatormentas:
Good afternoon from Spain!

Today morning we have recorded very nice rainfalls along the southern Andalusia. Rains have given by the Portugal's storm remnants, in a very interesting situation.

260

Thanks!



Nice graphic - thanks for the post.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4157
1050. nolesjeff
2:31 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting StormW:
1038. PcolaDan 10:21 AM EDT on September 23, 2008
Quoting StormW:
Looks like that Nor'easter may be taking shape near 32.5N;77.0W


Could you point out what you're seeing please. I'm completely ignorant on the subject and just curious what I'm missing. I'd like to be able to watch it develop but I'm clueless.
TIA


Go here, and zoom in on the co-ordinates

IR2 LOOP



Storm, are you seeing a little wiggle in low level clouds? I am also trying to see what you see. thanks
Member Since: June 20, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391
1049. Dutchlady
2:30 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
I want to briefly introduce myself (before I go back to lurkdom). I'm in Southwest Florida. I know very little about weather but have been following this site ever since Ike appeared to be heading for our area (then decided to go a different route). I credit this forum with at least one friend evacuating out of Galveston early before any of the other sites were past the 'oh it's only a Cat.2' stage.
I commend you all for your great community spirit and have made several contributions to the good causes here.

Now back to lurking..... Thanks for all the great info.
Member Since: September 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
1048. NEwxguy
2:28 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
this could get very interesting this week for us up here,depending on what happens with 93l,we could get a one two punch from a cold core system and then a tropical system,don't ever remember that happening up here before,but will have to wait and see,still too many ifs with 93l
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 877 Comments: 15711
1047. AtmosphericWrath
2:28 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting StormW:
1033. teckchick 10:16 AM EDT on September 23, 2008
hi again,
Sorry to ask this again, but can anyone explain why the Low of NC is not considered a tropical system?

Thanks in advance


Because it's associated with a frontal trof. It's what we call a Baroclinic feature...meaning basically it derives it's energy and strength from differences in temperature and pressure gradients, and are cold core, meaning the center is colder than the atmosphere surrounding it. Tropical systems are Barotropic, in that they derive their energy from unfiorm temperature distribution, and are not associated with fronts. Tropical systems are warm core, meaning the center is warmer than the atmosphere that surrounds them.


Yup... The core/atmospheric conditions are colder by nature as you go from the surface to 500mb(upper levels). A non-tropical system/mid latitude cyclones circulation also is not of the same nature or spins in the same direction as a tropical/TD/Hurricane does.
This system will likely comprise itself of a warm front/cold front with the low pressure core associated near northern extent of the cold front.
Also the wind field/pressure gradient is entirely different.

- Rob
Member Since: September 6, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
1046. Orcasystems
2:25 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting BmoreJJ:
Can anybody confirm a possible nor' easter off the coasts of MD, DE, NJ, NY, or MA?


If stormW said it, you don't need confirmation.. thats whats going to happen.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1045. nolesjeff
2:25 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting BmoreJJ:
Can anybody confirm a possible nor' easter off the coasts of MD, DE, NJ, NY, or MA?


See post 1031
Member Since: June 20, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391
1043. conchygirl
2:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
All this talk of winter and the fact that Central Florida should start seeing 60's at night soon is odd since we are still following tropical developments.
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
1042. teckchick
2:24 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Weather here is going down hill fast. Still hard to believe they are calling it a nor'easter...must also have something to do with the 68 degreee temps today.

Thanks for answering my question. :)
1041. BmoreJJ
2:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Can anybody confirm a possible nor' easter off the coasts of MD, DE, NJ, NY, or MA?
1040. WxLogic
2:22 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting StormW:
Looks like that Nor'easter may be taking shape near 32.5N;77.0W


Indeed... guess we'll see how strong it gets.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4970
1038. PcolaDan
2:21 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting StormW:
Looks like that Nor'easter may be taking shape near 32.5N;77.0W


Could you point out what you're seeing please. I'm completely ignorant on the subject and just curious what I'm missing. I'd like to be able to watch it develop but I'm clueless.
TIA
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1037. champagnedrmz
2:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting StormW:
Looks like that Nor'easter may be taking shape near 32.5N;77.0W


Looks like 93l is running from it instead of meeting up with it.
1036. largeeyes
2:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting teckchick:
hi again,
Sorry to ask this again, but can anyone explain why the Low of NC is not considered a tropical system?

Thanks in advance


It is not a warm-core system. It is a low pressure system with extra-tropical characteristics.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
1035. Orcasystems
2:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting StormW:
Looks like that Nor'easter may be taking shape near 32.5N;77.0W


Are those number right Storm? I don't even see a cloud there. Thats right over Miss Nadia right?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1034. AtmosphericWrath
2:17 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:


Portland.. one of my favourite places :) Retired Canadian Navy, loved the Rose Festival every year. Mind you, was not crazy about Mt Saint Helens covering us in a foot of Ash.

I have relatives who live there and work for Intel.

That being said..I live in Victoria.. and you can keep your weather.. I don't want it :)


Ahhhh yeah 1980 wasn't a lot of fun around here. Amazing power what nature can do.
Portland isn't too bad, but really too large for my liking. British Columbia is wonderful.
We can try to keep our weather, but almost every weather system we get affects you in one way or another. Whether it's a warm front, cold front, pressure gradient, it is nearly inevitable. Now if it isn't too much to ask I would like some Arctic fronts to drive south from Ft. Nelson and blasting across the Canadian/Washington border. Ohhhhh I can't wait for late Fall through Winter :-)

- Rob
Member Since: September 6, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
1033. teckchick
2:16 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
hi again,
Sorry to ask this again, but can anyone explain why the Low of NC is not considered a tropical system?

Thanks in advance

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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