Torrential rains from 93L batter Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:42 AM GMT on September 22, 2008

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Tropical disturbance 93L is lashing Puerto Rico with torrential rains of up to four inches per hour. Flash floods and mudslides have been reported across the east, southeast, and southeastern interior Puerto Rico. Radar estimated rainfall (Figure 1) shows more than eight inches of rain has fallen in some regions. The winds are beginning to pick up on the island, with a personal weather station in Carolina, just southeast of San Juan, reporting sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 34 mph at 6:58 pm AST.

Infrared satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity continues to increase in intensity, and upper-level outflow is now established on the north and east sides of 93L. Puerto Rico radar shows a large area of heavy rain advancing on the island, but there is no evidence of rotation or spiral bands beginning to form yet. Wind shear has fallen to the low level, about 5-10 knots.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from 93L.

Expect heavy rains of up to 15 inches to affect Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Monday from this slow moving storm. Heavy rains will also spread over eastern portions of the Dominican Republic Monday, potentially causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in mountainous regions. Since most of 93L's heavy thunderstorm activity is on its east side, it currently appears that Haiti and the Bahamas will escape dangerous heavy rains from this storm.

The intensity forecast
Wind shear is forecast to remain 10-20 knots over the next five days, and most of the reliable forecast models predict that 93L will develop into a tropical storm by Tuesday. The GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will strengthen into a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by Friday. However, there will be high wind shear very close to 93L for the next five days, and the storm may struggle at times with this high shear. Water temperatures are a warm 29.5°C and ocean heat content will be moderate to high over the next five days. The NHC is giving 93L a high (>50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate 93L Monday afternoon.

The track forecast
The models agree on a slow north-northwesterly motion for 93L over the next 3-4 days, which would bring the storm to a point between Bermuda and South Carolina. A major complicating factor in the long-range track forecast is the expected development of an extratropical Nor'easter storm off the coast of South Carolina on Wednesday or Thursday. The Nor'easter could bring hostile wind shear over 93L, weakening it, and potentially converting it into a subtropical storm. The two storms may rotate cyclonically around a common center (the Fujiwhara effect), sending the Nor'easter west-southwestward into the Southeast U.S., and 93L northwestwards towards North Carolina. This is the solution of the 18Z (2 pm EDT) GFDL and HWRF model. The NOGAPS model predicts that the Nor'easter will not develop at all, and instead 93L will absorb the energy that would have gone into creating the Nor'easter. This might convert 93L into a hybrid subtropical storm that would affect the coast of North and South Carolina late this week with sustained winds in the 50-60 mph range. I don't have a good feel for what will happen in this complicated situation, but it currently appears that coastal North Carolina may get tropical storm force winds from the extratropical storm beginning as early as Wednesday night. It is possible that 93L may impact the mid-Atlantic or New England regions early next week as a strong tropical storm.

Links to follow
Puerto Rico radar
San Juan, Puerto Rico weather

Portugul's storm
An extratropical low pressure system off the coast of Portugal has gradually warmed its core over the past 2-3 days, as it has wandered over waters of 22-23°C. This storm has developed some heavy thunderstorm activity near the center, and has winds of 40 mph, according to this evening's QuikSCAT pass. However, in NHC's subjective judgment, it does not yet have enough tropical characteristics to be named subtropical storm Kyle. This system should make landfall in southern Portugal Monday afternoon, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 40 mph to the coast.

Hurricane Ike relief efforts
A group of wunderground bloggers have done some amazing work to gather, purchase, and deliver relief supplies to victims of Hurricane Ike. So far, the group (spearheaded by Presslord, StormJunkie, and Patrap) have raised over $12,000 and sent three truckloads of supplies, with another truck on the way, plus several air freight shipments. For photos of the effort, plus links to donate to the cause, visit stormjunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters

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538. Cazatormentas
1:27 PM GMT on September 23, 2008
Good afternoon from Spain!

Today morning we have recorded very nice rainfalls along the southern Andalusia. Rains have given by the Portugal's storm remnants, in a very interesting situation.

260

Thanks!
Member Since: October 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 149
537. bcn
3:31 PM GMT on September 22, 2008




It was or it was not tropical, but it was water. One dead, damages and incidents.

More images at: http://www.elmundo.es/albumes/2008/09/22/lluvia_coslada/index.html

Thanks a lot to all persons who have contributed in following and analisis of this subject.
Member Since: August 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 62
536. BajaALemt
1:08 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
141. presslord 8:55 PM CDT on September 21, 2008
voort....this may help....


Please....everyboday....read this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

my wife just called...they will NOT be staying in Bridge City.....they unloaded half the truck there....and the folks from Winnie TX (on the Bolivar Penninsula) called by radio and begged them to bring the rest of the supplies there....so they are on the road to Winnie, where they will stay at the fire house in the dark...she and SJ are intears....my wife quoted one of the Bridge City officals: "Thank God for y'all...FEMA hasn't done sh*# for us...."....the people of Bridge City TX send their love....as will the people of Winnie....

organize....don't agonize....


www.portlight.org
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
535. KEHCharleston
12:53 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
(For easy reference 93L position per WU 18.8 67.9W

Station JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico (18N 66.2W)

Station 41043 - South Western Atlantic (21N 65W)

Ships and drifting buoys Barometric Pressure


Looking for the low forcasted to develop off South Carolina
Note the 5 Day Combined Plots

41048 Burmuda

Station FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC

Station 41001 - 150 NM East of Cape HATTERAS (lost it's mooring so drifting a bit)


Y'all I do NOT see anything of note here (93L or Low off SC) what am I missing?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
534. Nashda
12:52 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
524. UPRM1CIMA
Saludos a todos,

Not sure if this has been posted. Canal del Tiempo is quoting 24 hr
USGS rain gauges with over 24" in Patillas, PR and several others in the high teens/low twenties. Still not much here in Rincón, winds 5-10 m/s
and light rain. Stay dry!


Hello everyone; I work at Arecibo and live in Dorado.....the whole trip was rain, rain, rain........There is plenty of floodings, the rivers are overflooded or near to flooding.....So mi gente stay dry, stay safe!!!!
533. BajaALemt
12:49 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
346. presslord 10:56 PM CDT on September 21, 2008
they are in Winnie....she describes the smell as almost intolerable....Boliver Penninsula is a wasteland....the officals say it's the smell of decomposition...occaisionally they get a strong whiff of disinfectant...which the workers use to make the work tolerable...draw your own conclusions...


Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
532. Vero1
12:48 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
NEW BLOGGG!!!
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
531. BajaALemt
12:48 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
311. presslord 10:28 PM CDT on September 21, 2008
wife just called....stench is awful...the area they're in, not her and SJ...


(LOL @ not her and SJ, Press )
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
530. BajaALemt
12:46 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
289. presslord 10:15 PM CDT on September 21, 2008
wife just called....progress to Winnie was slowed as they had to detour around a giant sea going barge stuck on the road they were on


Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
529. HIEXPRESS
12:46 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


I am using IE7. Tried that and the site will not work. here is the link that i am trying to get to work.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/m sl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005101800!!!step/


The text in your link is incorrect. It should read:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/m sl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005101800!!!step/
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
528. BajaALemt
12:45 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
287. presslord 10:13 PM CDT on September 21, 2008
food for thought...Bridge City TX Mayor and Fire Chief told SJ and wife that there greatest long term need will be sheetrock....

Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
527. BajaALemt
12:44 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
277. presslord 9:58 PM CDT on September 21, 2008
roughly...a 26' foot truck from Charleston to Houston is $3-5 grand....many variable tho.....if supplies are purchased it's more....if truck is discounted or supplies donated it's less...just a rough rule of thumb....fuel is a huge cost....
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
526. BajaALemt
12:43 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
267. presslord 9:54 PM CDT on September 21, 2008
Couple of Bridge City pics on stormjunkie's blog...

Please repost this finanacial update liberally...

Am reposting yet again....wanna make sure this gets seen...it's accurate as of yesterday PM....

Total revenue since Monday AM: $13475.00

Expenitures: $10400.00 - this includes vehilcles, supplies, FUEL, insurance, freight...and some VERY LIMTED creature comforts for crew... I'm eating the phone charges....

Activity: Jacksonville/Atlanta crews arrive today...Charleston crews arrive tomorrow.....NOLA crew arrives Thursday...another Charleston crew will leave Thursday or Friday....plus several shipments being sent through commercial freight carriers as logistics dictated...

photos at stormjunkie's Wunderblog....

y'all rock....

www.portlight.org



Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
525. FMDawg
12:42 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting presslord:

Thanks to pottery, I just had an epiphany...

WE are the assistance....

WE are the media...

WE are the answer...

Organize your friends, co-wokers, families, other blogs and listservs, church groups, school groups to raise funds and supplies...I've got plenty of empty space to store stuff...I'm a real estate developer, for Christ's sake....let's keep this ball rolling...not just for the Ike victims...let's be ready for the NEXT victims, too...

We've created the foundation...let's build upon it...

www.portlight.org




Hi Presslord, I just made a donation, not much but it's what I can do. I think you guys are doing a wonderful job and really making a difference in peoples lives. I wish I could be there to help. Thank you, Cindy
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
524. UPRM1CIMA
12:42 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
Saludos a todos,

Not sure if this has been posted. Canal del Tiempo is quoting 24 hr
USGS rain gauges with over 24" in Patillas, PR and several others in the high teens/low twenties. Still not much here in Rincón, winds 5-10 m/s
and light rain. Stay dry!



Member Since: May 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 52
523. Sfloridacat5
12:41 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
New Blog
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9234
522. BajaALemt
12:40 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
I imagine there are LOTS of folks out there that we all know that just dont KNOW about what THEY can do! Tell 'em!!!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
521. BajaALemt
12:38 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
Press? Neat thing about my gift card prob? I was telling my boss about it when I went in to work that day...and she matched my card (I gave it to HER..hahaha) and she mailed a check!! WOOHOO!!
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
519. heretolearninPR
12:38 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
516. Yes rain everywhere
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 229
518. presslord
12:38 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
I need a HUGE favor.....


Would someone PLEASE go back to last night on this blog...between about 9P E and 1A E....and re-post some of my updates from my wife and SJ on the scene at Bridge City and Winnie???? I've GOT to get to my office and don't have time....but REALLY want the AM crowd to see them....

Thanks in advance.....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
517. BajaALemt
12:37 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
515. presslord Pretty darned awesome thing, Press (Everyone rocks!!)
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
516. benirica
12:36 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting heretolearninPR:
no the radar is still out. It has been down since 6:13 am. Maybe you are looking at an old picture.


yeah pretty sure i was...
either way, it probably looks just like that right now either way. lol
same was as it has looked since yesterday morning
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
515. presslord
12:35 PM GMT on September 22, 2008

Thanks to pottery, I just had an epiphany...

WE are the assistance....

WE are the media...

WE are the answer...

Organize your friends, co-wokers, families, other blogs and listservs, church groups, school groups to raise funds and supplies...I've got plenty of empty space to store stuff...I'm a real estate developer, for Christ's sake....let's keep this ball rolling...not just for the Ike victims...let's be ready for the NEXT victims, too...

We've created the foundation...let's build upon it...

www.portlight.org


Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
514. heretolearninPR
12:34 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
no the radar is still out. It has been down since 6:13 am. Maybe you are looking at an old picture.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 229
513. BajaALemt
12:34 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
"RADAR DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE" uh uh
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
512. benirica
12:33 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
never mind... back out
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
511. BajaALemt
12:32 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
93L RGB
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
510. champagnedrmz
12:32 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting keywestbrat:
good morning everyone, the punta cana radar in the DR is working, can't figure out the link button, but heres the address,

Here ya go.
Link
509. benirica
12:32 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
PR Radar is back on
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
508. Engine2
12:29 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
Thanks Vero
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
506. Engine2
12:29 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
Thanks Vero
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
505. Vero1
12:27 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting Engine2:
What time are the HH due to investigate 93L today?


000
NOUS42 KNHC 211500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 21 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-113

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA NEAR PUERTO RICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 02FFA INVEST
C. 22/1700Z
D. 20.5N 67.5W
E. 22/1700Z TO 23/0000Z
F. SFC - 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE DAILY
FIXES AT 23/1800Z IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
WVW


Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
504. BajaALemt
12:26 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
93L Loop
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
503. Engine2
12:25 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
What time are the HH due to investigate 93L today?
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
502. watchingnva
12:23 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
taz....i know its early, but cmon...they didnt rename 93...lol...its still 93...lol
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1525
501. benirica
12:23 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
Morning all...
Oh gosh, this is not wanting to get any better.
All of our rivers have attained historic flood stages.
We didn't get this much rain in Georges!
Just goes to show you, doesn't take a major hurricane to cause problems.

Stay safe guys.... protect life and property, but most important, protect life!
Three lives is too much to have lost already!
The people that have died were negligent, why put your life at risk for things you know will kill you?
Nobody can say they've never heard that cars get swept off the road with the water...
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1143
500. FMDawg
12:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting TampaSpin:
Good morning everyone.....i updated my blog late last nite if anyone would like to review it........

TampaSpin's Tropical Update Link


Thanks Tampa Spin, always enjoy your blog and I love the real time graphics.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
499. Tazmanian
12:20 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
94L

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
498. BajaALemt
12:19 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
Voortex...check this link. It's down. Link

(Note: Another of the things I like about GRL3..the update window highlights in different colors to give radar status...currently, it's Red. Red sucks..lol)
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
497. watchingnva
12:19 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
MESSAGE DATE: SEP 22 2008 11:17:45 THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D IS CURRENTLY OFFLINE. FAA TECHNICIANS WILL BE INVESTIGATING THIS SITUATION MOMENTARILY.

...the radar is down...great time for it to happen too...lol
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 1525
496. Engine2
12:19 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
Blogs pretty quiet for having a developing system this morning
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
495. Tazmanian
12:18 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
hi all i this noted that 93L this got re name to 94L you have to go too this navy site tooo seee it



Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
494. BajaALemt
12:16 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
492. Relix Mornin back at ya! Hope you're staying dry and safe. Facinating to watch, but I'm doing so being mindful of the danger of this situation for PR. :(
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
493. Vero1
12:10 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting voortex:



nexrad is working fine
Nexrad says: "Radar Down For Maintanence" at the top of the screen. (On mine)
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
492. Relix
12:08 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
Power's out for me in Levittown =). Morning guys! 93L is developing over PR... quite freaky XD
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
491. BajaALemt
12:04 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
*nods* mmmmmm, could be. Or maybe lightning *shrugs*
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 53 Comments: 8533
490. conchygirl
12:04 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting TampaSpin:
Good morning everyone.....i updated my blog late last nite if anyone would like to review it........

TampaSpin's Tropical Update Link
Thanks Tampa. Still looking clear for the gulf and Florida from 93L - again, not good that someone will get Kyle but the gulf doesn't need him that is for sure.
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
489. ShenValleyFlyFish
12:03 PM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


I am using IE7. Tried that and the site will not work. here is the link that i am trying to get to work.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/m sl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005101800!!!step/


Microsoft is its own worst virus
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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