Puerto Rico disturbance near tropical depression status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:11 PM GMT on September 21, 2008

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Tropical disturbance 93L continues to slowly organize, and will probably be a tropical depression by tonight or Monday. Visible satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity continues to increase, and upper-level outflow is now visible on the north side of 93L. There is as yet no evidence of a closed surface circulation. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a sharp wind shift, but no closed circulation. Top winds observed by QuikSCAT were in the 30-35 mph range. Puerto Rico radar shows a large area of heavy rain advancing on the island, but there is no evidence of rotation or spiral bands beginning to form yet. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate level, about 10-15 knots.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of 93L.

Expect heavy rains of 4-8" to affect Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Sunday through Monday. Heavy rains will also spread over eastern portions of the Dominican Republic Sunday night into Monday, potentially causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in mountainous regions. Since most of 93L's heavy thunderstorm activity is on its east side, it currently appears that Haiti and the Bahamas will escape dangerous heavy rains from this storm.

The intensity forecast
Wind shear is forecast to remain 10-20 knots over the next five days, and four of the six reliable forecast models predict that 93L will develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will strengthen into a hurricane by Friday. However, there will be high wind shear very close to 93L for the next five days, and the storm may struggle at times with this high shear. Water temperatures are a warm 29.5°C and ocean heat content will be moderate to high over the next five days. The NHC is giving 93L a high (>50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate 93L this afternoon.

The track forecast
The models agree on a general north-northwesterly motion for 93L over the next 3-4 days, which would bring the storm just west of Bermuda. A major complicating factor in the long-range track forecast is the expected development of an extratropical Nor'easter storm off the coast of South Carolina on Thursday. The Nor'easter could bring hostile wind shear over 93L, weakening it into a subtropical storm. The Nor'easter might then recurve out to sea, drawing 93L behind it. This is the solution of the latest 06Z (2 am EDT) GFS model run. Alternatively, the two storms may rotate cyclonically around a common center (the Fujiwhara effect), sending the Nor'easter west-southwestward into the Southeast U.S., and 93L northwestwards towards North Carolina. This is the solution of the 00Z (8 pm EDT) GFDL model. The NOGAPS model predicts that the Nor'easter will not develop at all, and instead 93L will absorb the energy that would have gone into creating the Nor'easter. This would convert 93L into a hybrid subtropical storm that would affect the coast of North and South Carolina late this week with sustained winds in the 50-60 mph range. I don't have a good feel for what will happen in this complicated situation, but it currently appears that coastal North and South Carolina can expect tropical storm force winds from either an extratropical or tropical storm beginning on Friday. It is possible that 93L may impact the mid-Atlantic or New England regions early next week.

Links to follow
Puerto Rico radar
San Juan, Puerto Rico weather

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave with some limited heavy thunderstorm activity is a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. The GFS and NOGAPS models continue to predict that this system will develop into a tropical depression by the middle of the week.

Hurricane Ike relief efforts
A group of wunderground bloggers have done some amazing work to gather, purchase, and deliver relief supplies to victims of Hurricane Ike. So far, the group (spearheaded by Presslord, StormJunkie, and Patrap) have raised over $12,000 and sent three truckloads of supplies, with another truck on the way, plus several air freight shipments. For photos of the effort, plus links to donate to the cause, visit stormjunkie's blog.


Figure 2. Paul Timmons (AKA presslord), with one of the trucks full of Hurricane Ike relief supplies. Image credit: StormJunkie.

I'll have an update later today.

Jeff Masters

ike at houston yacht club / seabrook (beeleeva)
damage from ike at houston yacht club in la porte texas and seabrook sailing club in seabrook tx
ike at houston yacht club / seabrook
Belham Valley Flooding (tbrett)
Belham Valley Flooding

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1033. DavidItaly
10:18 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
TROPICAL SISTEM OVER SOUTH OWEST SPAIN ?
WELCOME
SORRY but have a warm core of two dayes
have a tropical storm caracteristic no subtropical storm..
the wind in the naight of 45knotes..
is like a really tropical storm whit convectiv in the nort east of the center low..
the track and sea temperature is very similary with hurricane Vince..
for me this a really Tropical Storm and in this moment a Tropical Depression
sorry for me English

LOOK this Link Please and the many images:
Thanks
LINK:
http://www.associazionebernacca.com/forum/showthread.php?p=51622#post51622









1032. DavidItaly
9:15 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
TROPICAL SISTEM OVER SOUTH OWEST SPAIN ?
WELCOME
SORRY but have a warm core of two dayes
have a tropical storm caracteristic no subtropical storm..
the wind in the naight of 45knotes..
is like a really tropical storm whit convectiv in the nort east of the center low..
the track and sea temperature is very similary with hurricane Vince..
for me this a really Tropical Storm and in this moment a Tropical Depression
sorry for me English

LOOK this Link Please and the many images:
Thanks

http://www.associazionebernacca.com/forum/showthread.php?p=51622#post51622







1031. Elena85Vet
7:02 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting theshepherd:

Yikes
I do love precast.
But amigo your right, those cmu walls definetly ain't Southern Bldg Code for sure. Reckon where that bldg inspector is hiding nowadays?


I made a minature building just like that out of sugar cubes once. It looked the same once my cat got to it.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 619
1030. samcree
2:34 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
I don't know about news coverage of areas hard hit, but I don't doubt that it's inconsistent. To me, that doesn't tell us that there's a conspiracy, it's just a good demonstration of how incomplete and inaccurate the news media probably always is.

My neighborhood in south Miami - Dade experienced part of the north eyewall of Andrew, what a mess. I don't remember anyone worrying about the news coverage afterwards, for the simple reason that no one had electricity, thus no TV. I remember after 10 days or so, I managed a call to the Miami Herald to ask why the paper wasn't coming...they said they weren't delivering to the area, was too devastated for the delivery people to get in and out of. Even if we'd had electric, there wasn't time to watch TV, what with clearing away debris, repairing, etc. Lots of people just moved out of the neighborhood for the duration, I guess they had TV at that point.

One thing we were glad of was that 82 Airborne being there and the NG checkpoints all around, which gave us security after a couple days.

I hope we won't get political about this, there are plenty of arguments to marshal, this is too good of a blog to mess up with that stuff.

BTW, can anyone tell me how to post an avatar, or does one need the paid membership for that?
1029. CaicosRetiredSailor
2:29 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
http://www.laserforum.org/hurricane-ike-update-t10092.html?s=1b736278ffcb77381db34474f594828b&

Link


Hurricane Ike Update

Greetings Laserites. Ike has come and done its worst to the Galveston Bay area. Seabrook Sailing Club took a direct hit and was washed out. Fortunately, the members evacuated all of their boats before Ike came through. Here's a link to Chris Kuhlman's pictures of the area and the clubhouse and the damage Ike wreaked.

http://www.ckpro.com/IKE

Three board members' homes right behind the club were washed away, only the pilings remain. The cinder block walls downstairs and almost all upstairs washed away as designed, leaving the reinforced concrete structure intact, including the roof. Too bad we just had new windows installed. The piers are very badly damaged. The mausoleum, a wood and metal structure that housed one of the motor boats, race marks, and members' boards and gear is gone. The contents of the building and mausoleum are scattered debris, even most of what was moved upstairs. I can't tell from the pictures too clearly, but it looks like the drink coolers and refrigerators upstairs are probably gone. I haven't heard about the status of our three motor boats, but I was told they had been moved to safe ground.

--------------
...a little research answers questions and lessens speculations

CRS
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
1027. theshepherd
1:34 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting pottery:
Off the current topic a little
in the image of the yacht club on the blog (above), how is it possible to have concrete blocks removed from walls 12' above ground, and no damage to railings? The debris is laying there where it fell ( not moved by sea action ). The grass and ground dont look to have been affected by surge?
Was this wind damage ? And the roof is intact.?
Strange photo........

Yikes
I do love precast.
But amigo your right, those cmu walls definetly ain't Southern Bldg Code for sure. Reckon where that bldg inspector is hiding nowadays?
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10030
1026. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:15 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting pottery:
Well, there must be a reason for the media blackout on the situation. And bad workmanship only happens when people lose their respect for themselves and everyone else. This is a bad condition, and results in bad karma, if you ask me.
But then, I'm just a small-island boy.

Its sad.
there is more to the piture than meets the eye my friend even more these days media has a different soul like as if to guide us allthe while misguiding us i get the feeling of the phase move along nothing to see here is going to be a big part of our future
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52340
1025. jerseygrl
1:15 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting CapeObserver:


I think you just came up with the official Portlight slogan!


I was just thinking the same thing. I emailed everyone in my address book and put it in my blog, and at least 2 people have responded and said they were dontating to portlight! If we all spread the word, there's no limit to what we can do!

Don't agonize...ORGANIZE! I love it.
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
1024. CapeObserver
1:13 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
The only thing I heard on the news today regarding the area was that some residents of Galveston were currently being allowed back in as of today and the rest would be allowed back in midweek. The guy was saying there was no water and no waste water treatment. He said, and I'm paraphrasing, "Bring your water and well, don't leave any", with a smile.
To me that leads the nation to believe that these people have something to go back to. Very misleading.
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
1023. SWFLDigTek
1:13 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
You know... I almost hate to go here, and really appreciate what presslord and the others are doing for those who have been hit hard by this storm - I also realize there are a lot of individual situations and am not trying to stereotype anyone nor am I saying that these good people should not continue to help others... BUT, what about all the hard working americans who are now victims of the current economy. They have also lost thier homes and/or jobs, or maybe they are just hanging on though there is no light at the end of the tunnel - who is helping them? St least to some extent a fair number of the people affected by the storm may fall into this category too, perhaps that is why they must not have had any insurance (if they did they would be living in a hotel right now). I just think that in some cases these fine people may be giving people stuff that will really not do much more than provide a short term benefit (maybe mostly to the givers - do not take that the wrong way) because in a short period of time the goods will be gone and these people willl be right back where they were when they recieved the help. Just maybe these gifts could help MORE if given to hard working americans who are down on thier luck than the first pathetic looking group of people on the side of the road who may well have been living in about the same conditions as they are now BEFORE the storm came though???

Now you can cuss me out, put me on ignore or ban me, but at least think about what I just said first...
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 117 Comments: 398
1022. billy305
1:11 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
that big blob seems to go farther and farther south
not saying the coc
the blob in 93L
1021. zoomiami
1:11 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
new blog
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4136
1020. JRRP
1:10 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Link
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5085
1019. CosmicEvents
1:09 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
I haven't seen much of anything on the cable news networks about Ike and the deplorable situation on the ground in Texas. I think that these unfortunate people are yesterday's news.......in light of the financial crisis. They're caught betwen thae crisis and the fact that we're 45 days away from election day.
On the news networks I see nothing but talk about finance, and the campaign of course. Thankfully, we have great support from the public, exemplified by portlight.org
.
.
I think one also has to think(or hope) that these people have been offered shelter.....but it's in a far away uncertain place. Some need more time to process the loss before they can move on away from the area near their home.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5462
1018. zoomiami
1:08 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Link

story of one small city
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4136
1017. hurricanexo
1:02 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
zoo,

very good point on the older homes doing ok. it certainly doesn't look like they have any concrete poured in as support, which i have seen on old buildings (1950's) in the keys. the block walls not tied into the poured concrete beams / columns. (almost like break away - below flood - wall construction. common in frame under stilt construction. - except i am sure they were not planning on them breaking away.) not sure what tx code is like but with their history, you would think building may have other issues. not to code, etc.
1016. zoomiami
1:01 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Link

local slideshows
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4136
1015. CapeObserver
12:58 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting surfmom:


Yes, since andrew major improvements in construction... but there "was/is" a lot of the old junk around....


Without question, which is why pictures of what has really happened in TX need to be at the forefront. People need to see and be reminded of frequently what is possible with older construction and even new construction.
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
1014. will40
12:56 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Link
Quicksat assending desending misses it
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
1013. hunkerdown
12:56 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
At that elevation, surge definitely got as high as the grass. The railings look to be welded, it not bolted to the staircase. The stairs look like they are made of steel instead of wood. Sure doesn't look like there were any studs on the inside of the cinder block wall.
Quoting pottery:
Hunkerdown, I did not want to say that, but I spent 12 yrs. in construction, and I have never seen blockwork come apart like that. The blocks lying in the foreground do not seem to have any mortar on them at all, and the blocks that have not fallen out from the wall look to be stacked with nothing to keep them there.

Who built that thing ??LOL man.......
no mortar or rebar...the railings are probably the best constructed part of the "building".
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
1012. Relix
12:56 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Wow, if the tracks keep true, the "low" will be passing right over my house. I am excited =)
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2639
1011. theshepherd
12:55 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting Hhunter:
Link

galveston and boulevare cover up video link

mercy...
Which one of ABC's conspiracy theories should I take to heart ?
The one that says they are protecting the forecaster's underestimating the Cat#,????That's an interesting one....
Or the one that says they don't want the public to see the extent of devastation, which by the way would vindicate the mandatory evac order and place more public trust in the next one???
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10030
1010. surfmom
12:55 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting CapeObserver:


I can't speak for the rest of the area but I know SWFL uses those codes for new construction.


Yes, since andrew major improvements in construction... but there "was/is" a lot of the old junk around....
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
1009. kdav
12:53 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
yeah that could be the closed circulation. wait and see what the nhc says at 11 pm.
1008. VARob
12:53 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting MissNadia:
895 Pottery
I don't think it was wind. Don't know where the buliding is located but wind was in the 100 to110 range and that wouldn't take down block walls or remove a flat roof. Some of the windows are still in place. Wind would take them for sure. The random nature of the dammage sez waves to me. The area is bulkheaded and that would hold the grass in place. I have the same setup and have had 6 feet of surge over it. Surge goes out and the lawn is back to normal. I think it was all from wave action.



I agree it was surge. I am a contract disater inspector for a govt agency that we all know and I have seen this before.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 100
1007. HurricaneKing
12:52 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Based on what...

Baserd on the center starting to organize over the sw side of PR. (I would post the radar but It's messing up again on my computer.)
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2449
1005. zoomiami
12:51 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting hurricanexo:
zoo,

texas etc. (including all coastal areas in fl) need to adopt miami dade building code. no rebar, no concrete filler in blocks, etc. i really don't think this would happen in s fl. if (and a big if) built to current / post andrew code.


I know that our code is much stronger (and a bigger pain in the butt) -- but there are lots of older (pre 50's) houses that did well too.

Our office was an old home that two brothers built for the mom - concrete block for every wall, interior also, with concrete poured in at various places (like support beams). No structural damage in Andrew - none, not even the roof. Doors and windows blew in from pressure that was it.

Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4136
1004. Hhunter
12:51 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Link

sounds like a cover up and a consipracy to me and i am a republican...people where told to leave and they did not..we should all then see what the consequences are..whatever that may be...
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
1003. antonio28
12:50 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Lose the caps.


Sorry but can you anwer the question??
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 799
1002. stormdude77
12:50 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
A ''t number'' of 2.0 usually indicates TD strength...
1001. extreme236
12:50 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting kdav:
oh ok. thnx. alos on pr radar it looks like a possible closed circulation near the wes coast.


Thats the center the NHC has.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1000. CapeObserver
12:50 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting hurricanexo:
zoo,

texas etc. (including all coastal areas in fl) need to adopt miami dade building code. no rebar, no concrete filler in blocks, etc. i really don't think this would happen in s fl. if (and a big if) built to current / post andrew code.


I can't speak for the rest of the area but I know SWFL uses those codes for new construction.
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
999. extreme236
12:50 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
what we need from 93L is a SFC low this be come you see a T # of 2.0 dos not mean it would be called a TD right off the top


you need a SFC low 1st


no SFC low no TD


Taz, there is a sfc low...sfc low and circulation are different things.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
998. kdav
12:50 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
oh ok. thnx. alos on pr radar it looks like a possible closed circulation near the wes coast.
997. extreme236
12:50 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Note that the NHC issued a track, as shown by "OFCL"

Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
996. Tazmanian
12:49 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
what we need from 93L is a SFC low this be come you see a T # of 2.0 dos not mean it would be called a TD right off the top


you need a SFC low 1st


no SFC low no TD
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114071
995. Hhunter
12:49 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Link

not even a depression...lol
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
994. CybrTeddy
12:49 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting extreme236:
lol now we have a center dilemma with 93L. SFC obs suggest two possible sfc centers.


Were used to the Drama.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
993. kdav
12:48 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
well it wouldnt be a 2008 storm without having trouble getting a closed circulaion or having more than one would it? lol.
992. pottery
12:48 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
WAY TO GO, Press.

Press for Pres !
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23094
991. extreme236
12:48 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting kdav:
wheres the itensity and track model on the nhc page? i dont see it.


its on the model pages.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
990. hurricanexo
12:47 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
zoo,

texas etc. (including all coastal areas in fl) need to adopt miami dade building code. no rebar, no concrete filler in blocks, etc. i really don't think this would happen in s fl. if (and a big if) built to current / post andrew code.
989. zoomiami
12:47 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Pottery - its actually not a blackout - its just the way it is. The local stations are covering a lot more - and the local newspapers have a lot of info.

If you want to see what's going on, google Houston local news, and go through some of the sites. The have tons of pictures & blogs from people who are local.

My own opinion is that it isn't getting the coverage because the people affected are trying to work it out, not looking for a lot of outside help. That isn't that unusual.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4136
988. kdav
12:47 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
wheres the itensity and track model on the nhc page? i dont see it.
987. CapeObserver
12:46 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting presslord:
let's not agonize....let's organize....


I think you just came up with the official Portlight slogan!
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
986. extreme236
12:46 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
lol now we have a center dilemma with 93L. SFC obs suggest two possible sfc centers.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
985. kdav
12:45 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
t numbers of a 2.0 would indicate a td.
984. CybrTeddy
12:45 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Based on what...


basing the NHC just realized its intensity and track model.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
983. extreme236
12:44 AM GMT on September 22, 2008
21/2345 UTC 17.8N 65.7W T2.0/2.0 93L -- Atlantic Ocean
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.