Caribbean disturbance 93L slowly organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:22 PM GMT on September 20, 2008

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Tropical disturbance 93L is slowly getting more organized. Visible satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity has moved closer to the center and has increased in recent hours. However, there is no evidence of a closed surface circulation on satellite images or from last night's QuikSCAT pass. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate level, about 15 knots, and some additional slow organization of 93L appears likely today.

Wind shear is forecast to remain 10-20 knots over the next five days, and four of the six reliable forecast models now predict that 93L will develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This development is forecast to happen near the southeastern Bahamas. The NHC is giving 93L a medium (20%-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. I give a 60% chance that 93L will eventually develop into a tropical depression.

Expect heavy rains of 3-6" to affect Puerto Rico tonight through Sunday. On Sunday, heavy rain will spread to the Dominican Republic and Haiti, potentially causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The southeastern Bahamas can expect rains from 93L beginning on Monday night.

Links to follow
Puerto Rico radar
San Juan, Puerto Rico weather


Figure 1. Current satellite image of 93L.

Possible development off the coast of Africa
A strong tropical wave with some solid heavy thunderstorm activity emerged from the coast yesterday. The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting this system will develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week. Wind shear is predicted to be in the moderate range, 10-20 knots. However, the system is too close to the Equator to develop very quickly.

Many of the models are also predicting development of a strong storm off the coast of North Carolina about six days from now, but this will probably be extratropical--the season's first Nor'easter.

I'll have an update Sunday morning at the latest.
Jeff Masters

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956. Prgal
3:48 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 921
955. Vero1
3:45 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
;
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
954. CapeObserver
3:39 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Hurricane Hunters passing over Andros Island right now. Will be interesting to see what they find in the system.


Ha, you just answered my question!
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
953. CapeObserver
3:39 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Anyone know what time the recon is set to fly into 93I?
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
952. cchsweatherman
3:38 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Hurricane Hunters passing over Andros Island right now. Will be interesting to see what they find in the system.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
951. SWFLDigTek
3:34 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 117 Comments: 398
950. champagnedrmz
3:33 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


One thing that comes to mind, with respect to track, is that most storms in this location have tracked much further south and west this year. Not saying that 93L will but, it is in the back of my mind.

Also, in reference to your map. I found that orange text shows up rather well.


I wanted to add that I had a very hard time reading the red. Don't know if it was just me or my computer. Just an FYI
949. Dar9598
3:29 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
IT'S BEEN 10 YEARS THAT WE HAVE HURRICANES GEORGES IN THE CARIBBEAN SO PEOPLE WHO LIVED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES,VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO CAUSING BILLIONS DOLLARS IN DAMAGES. EVEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM FORM BETWEEN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO THAT WILL BE QUICKLY FORGOTTEN,THERE IS NOTHING COMPARE TO WHAT IT WAS THAT TIME, A MAJOR HURRICANE TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
947. farhaonhebrew
3:23 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Quoting Relix:
I really hate living in the north coast of PR.... not a drop of rain has fallen here. It's cloudy. Place your bets... will 93L become a TD before hitting PR? I out 10 on no!
i live in Juncos is rainy here, but i expect a lot more...dont worry, the rain will come and when it finally fall will take to long to stop. I think is already a TD... so the recon maby find a moderate TS. If u see the radar, just south to Ponce, i think there is the surface low drifting south.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 248
946. theshepherd
3:23 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
10-4
I'll see how far a 40 gal tank takes me from Lkae City.
Then I'll unload canned goods to hungry looking people.
Grand daughter sent me my new avatar. Told me to stop bragging about that stupid fish. ;>)
Gotta go.....
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10091
945. wreckchick
3:20 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Well, in St. Thomas it's light rain and winds gusting in the neighborhood of 35kts or so on the south side.

The weather has been steadily getting crappier all morning.
944. CapeObserver
3:18 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Quoting Greyelf:

When I saw the story, I thought the same thing too..that I'll bet some people are going to get their panties in a wad about not getting their due recognition. Those same people need to ask themselves if they donated to get recognized or help. Crimeny...they're getting all the thanks they should need here. Why do they need a reporter's thanks? *smacks forehead*



Unless you have someone assigned to write and release press releases stuff like this will happen. Big deal. It's the big picture that counts, not the credits.
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
943. heretolearninPR
3:17 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
941. Relix

None here in Miramar although the sky has been black all day.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 229
942. zoomiami
3:16 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Quoting theshepherd:
Stopped for a coffee break in Tallahassee.
Still westbound on I-10
Have air-card will travel ;>)


Let us know where you end up.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
941. Relix
3:14 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Finally! Bits of rain are falling XD
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2725
940. tropicallydepressed
3:12 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
nothing t
Quoting HrDelta:
Here's an idea, a limit of 5 times that the Tropical Disturbance Statement or an Advisory can be posted here.

What's happening with the Tropical Wave by Africa? We were hearing so much about it, and now it has fallen of the radar.


There isn't anything to talk about...
Member Since: August 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 137
939. nola70119
3:12 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
938. extreme236
3:11 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Quoting KendallHurricane:
looks like this system continues to get better organized , this has been the year that tropical waves and areas of low pressure start getting organized , then on radar and satelite look like tropical storms/hurricanes and have an impressive mid level circulation and don't have closed low level circulation , why has this been happening this year ????????


Overall, this system has been a fairly quick organizer when you think of it. It was just mentioned in the TWO on Friday.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
937. theshepherd
3:10 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Stopped for a coffee break in Tallahassee.
Still westbound on I-10
Have air-card will travel ;>)
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10091
936. KendallHurricane
3:09 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
looks like this system continues to get better organized , this has been the year that tropical waves and areas of low pressure start getting organized , then on radar and satelite look like tropical storms/hurricanes and have an impressive mid level circulation and don't have closed low level circulation , why has this been happening this year ????????
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 498
935. philliesrock
3:09 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Quoting sporteguy03:



Where is Puerto Rico?

It's certain to hit Puerto Rico.
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 65 Comments: 3197
934. Relix
3:09 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
I really hate living in the north coast of PR.... not a drop of rain has fallen here. It's cloudy. Place your bets... will 93L become a TD before hitting PR? I out 10 on no!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2725
933. redUK
3:06 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
895. redUK 2:38 PM GMT on September 21, 2008

We'll see what recon says in the next few days of how strong Hagupit gets but it has a group of islands north of the Philippines to pass over first before heading into the South China Sea.


What models would be used in this area?

If they are as accurate at 48 hours as the GFDL, then Hong Kong would be in the NE quad of a large 120mph Cyclone..

I have some family in the New Territories - I'll make sure they are aware of this..
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
932. CaneAddict
3:06 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Good morning everyone...I have not been on much but I will try to be here a little more often now that we have a depression forming.

I will be back in a little bit..Have to reply to some emails.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151
931. Greyelf
3:06 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Quoting presslord:
I understand....as the result of numerous phone calls and e-mails....that some of you are upset about the Houston TV piece which covered the arrival of the "special needs" equipment....

Let me be clear on two points:

1.) They messed it up pretty badly...gave credit to the wrong folks....but that is out of our control...this is a grassroots effort with no mechanism for media message management...so...this is what happens....and it's OK...,.what matters is what we're doing...

2.) ANYBODY who tries to pick a fight over this....either with the TV station or with other bloggers....will be out on that limb all by themselves....with ZERO support from me...this is not about who gets the credit....

When I saw the story, I thought the same thing too..that I'll bet some people are going to get their panties in a wad about not getting their due recognition. Those same people need to ask themselves if they donated to get recognized or help. Crimeny...they're getting all the thanks they should need here. Why do they need a reporter's thanks? *smacks forehead*
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 18 Comments: 838
930. HrDelta
3:05 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Here's an idea, a limit of 5 times that the Tropical Disturbance Statement or an Advisory can be posted here.

What's happening with the Tropical Wave by Africa? We were hearing so much about it, and now it has fallen of the radar.
Member Since: October 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 451
929. IpswichWeatherCenter
3:04 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Can we please stop posting the Tropical Disturbance Statement...


Sorry... i couldn't get the coding to work for the bolding of bits.
Member Since: April 27, 2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097
928. TheCaneWhisperer
3:04 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Quoting cchsweatherman:


One thing that comes to mind, with respect to track, is that most storms in this location have tracked much further south and west this year. Not saying that 93L will but, it is in the back of my mind.

Also, in reference to your map. I found that orange text shows up rather well.
927. tropicallydepressed
3:03 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Quoting voortex:

the gfdl has 93l going north then curving towards new york with 105 knot winds...Link


cool...can this model tell me next weekends lottery numbers too?
Member Since: August 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 137
926. Stlouiskid
3:03 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Quoting sporteguy03:



Where is Puerto Rico?


Agreed but at this time that seems a given
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
925. sporteguy03
3:02 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Quoting philliesrock:
OK, let's play this game again. Predict where 93L will hit:

A. Southeast (FL-NC)
B. Mid-Atlantic (VA-NJ)
C. Northeast (NY-ME)
D. Canada
E. Out to sea
F. Other (it will dissipate, go in the GOM, etc.)



Where is Puerto Rico?
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5350
924. Stormchaser2007
3:01 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Can we please stop posting the Tropical Disturbance Statement...
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
923. eddye
3:01 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa that my answer
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1280
922. Stlouiskid
3:01 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Quoting HurricaneKing:

The link says I'm forbidden.


here Link

i think that is what he might have been trying to post...its all the (good-semidecent) models
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
921. IpswichWeatherCenter
3:01 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
000
WONT41 KNHC 211432
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
EASTERN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Thats helpful

Member Since: April 27, 2008 Posts: 29 Comments: 2097
919. Stormchaser2007
3:00 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Quoting hurricane23:
Still looks rather disorganized to me as the present surface/mid level circulation is removed from the thunderstorm activity.As far as track is concerned a trajectory to the NNW-NW seems pretty reasonable at this time.

93 12z Models


I dont see what your seeing...
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
918. philliesrock
2:59 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
OK, let's play this game again. Predict where 93L will hit:

A. Southeast (FL-NC)
B. Mid-Atlantic (VA-NJ)
C. Northeast (NY-ME)
D. Canada
E. Out to sea
F. Other (it will dissipate, go in the GOM, etc.)
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 65 Comments: 3197
917. hurricane23
2:59 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Quoting HurricaneKing:

The link says I'm forbidden.


Sorry about that here you go.

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
916. Seastep
2:58 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Quoting voortex:

the gfdl has 93l going north then curving towards new york with 105 knot winds...Link


1600Z
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
915. eddye
2:58 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
everyone this looks like a hurricane
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1280
914. extreme236
2:56 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
For those who missed it:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
913. extreme236
2:55 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Quoting hurricane23:
Still looks rather disorganized to me as the present surface/mid level circulation is removed from the thunderstorm activity.As far as track is concerned a trajectory to the NNW-NW seems pretty reasonable at this time.

93 12z Models


Removed from the thunderstorm activity? Thats not what the NHC coordinates suggest.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
912. cchsweatherman
2:54 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
911. HurricaneKing
2:54 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Quoting hurricane23:
Still looks rather disorganized to me as the present surface/mid level circulation is removed from the thunderstorm activity.As far as track is concerned a trajectory to the NNW-NW seems pretty reasonable at this time.

93 12z Models

The link says I'm forbidden.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2485
910. Stormchaser2007
2:53 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
909. kmanislander
2:51 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Quoting Vero1:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008


...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W THROUGH A
WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 17N67W


Estimate was on the Navy site this morning as 1008
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
908. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:51 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
895. redUK 2:38 PM GMT on September 21, 2008

We'll see what recon says in the next few days of how strong Hagupit gets but it has a group of islands north of the Philippines to pass over first before heading into the South China Sea.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45580
907. hurricane23
2:51 PM GMT on September 21, 2008
Still looks rather disorganized to me as the present surface/mid level circulation is removed from the thunderstorm activity.As far as track is concerned a trajectory to the NNW-NW seems pretty reasonable at this time.

93 12z Models
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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