Caribbean disturbance 93L a threat to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:36 PM GMT on September 19, 2008

Share this Blog
1
+

Heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing over the Lesser Antilles Islands today in association with tropical disturbance 93L. Visible satellite loops indicate that a closed circulation may be developing at middle levels of the atmosphere, near 14N 64W. Additional slow development appears likely, and I expect 93L's mid-level circulation will work its way down to the surface by Sunday. Slowing down this process will be the presence 15-20 knots of wind shear, which is marginal for development. Wind shear is forecast by the GFS model to remain 15-20 knots for the next five days, but other models are forecasting wind shear in the moderate range, 10-15 knots. The NHC is now giving 93L a medium (20%-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday, and I put these odds a bit higher, in the 30%-60% range. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L, and it is possible that given its current rather fragile state, high wind shear will prevent development. I give a 60% chance that 93L will eventually develop into a tropical depression.

Most of the heavy rains from 93L are well to the east of the center, and expect heavy rains of 3-6" to affect Puerto Rico Saturday through Sunday. By Sunday, heavy rain will spread to the Dominican Republic and Haiti, potentially causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Steering patterns will very likely prevent 93L from recurving out to sea, and I expect the storm will affect Jamaica, Cuba, and possibly the southeastern Bahamas beginning on Monday night. It is uncertain at this time whether 93L will retain its current west-northwest motion and cross into the Bahamas (as forecast by the HWRF model), or be forced more to the west on Sunday, and remain in the Caribbean (as forecast by the Canadian model).


Figure 1. Current satellite image of 93L.

Possible development off the coast of Africa
Another possible place for development is off the coast of Africa. A strong tropical wave with some solid heavy thunderstorm activity is emerging from the coast today, and the GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting this system will develop into a tropical depression by early next week. Wind shear is predicted to be in the moderate range, 10-20 knots.

Many of the models are also predicting development of a strong storm off the coast of North Carolina about six to seven days from now, but this will probably be extratropical--the season's first Nor'easter.

I'll have an update Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 712 - 662

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

712. Cavin Rawlins
3:33 PM GMT on October 16, 2008
Update From Saint Kitts

We made it through the night safe, no casualities reported as yet. We have moderate to heavy tree damage with severe coastal flooding and erosion with extensive damage to Frigate Bay Beach, one of my photos. We had a
spectacular lighting show last night. Hurricane Omar came on the 10th year after the infamous Hurricane Georges and took a track similar to Hurricane Lenny 9 years ago.

The Basseterre Bus and Sea Terminal

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
711. Hockeyho
4:43 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Quoting zoomiami:
Just watched an interview with a retired Coast Guardsman who rode out the storm on Crystal Beach. Ended up having to swim out of his house, in the water for almost 14 hours, floating on debris.

Actually swam/moved across the channel to the next piece of land over where he was rescued by helicopter.

Says he's not living on the water any more.


Thanks again zoomiami for that hair raising interview. I evacuated for Charley (turns out unnecessarily) yet NEVER regretted that decision.
710. Hockeyho
4:26 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Quoting nola70119:


There isn't many media out there looking This is a story I produced for the Wall Street Journal on the Isle de Jean Charlesin Terrebonne Parish, LA. Th small island got ten feet of surge 300 miles away from where the hurricane hit. I have been to Beaumont and SJ is on the right track-- these areas are completely neglected in the aftermath. All the media wants to know is Galveston...


nola70119, thanks for that beautiful story. It's heartbreaking to read the story of these proud people. I live in an area of Florida where the Army Corp of Engineers also tried to 'manage' Mother Nature with less than stellar results.
709. theshepherd
3:01 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Wonder if you forecasters that keep us safe have a forecaster's bell hanging from your monitor that reads, never forecast further than your angel can see? ;>)
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10139
708. theshepherd
2:53 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Quoting zoomiami:
Just watched an interview with a retired Coast Guardsman who rode out the storm on Crystal Beach. Ended up having to swim out of his house, in the water for almost 14 hours, floating on debris.

Actually swam/moved across the channel to the next piece of land over where he was rescued by helicopter.

Says he's not living on the water any more.

Incredible.
The riding bell on my Harley reads, Never drive faster than your angel can fly.
Looks like he kept pace with his. God bless him.
Remember the fellow down in your area that speared the large fish and was towed 10 or 12 miles refusing to let go before the fish finally died?
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10139
707. 2ifbyC
2:46 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Quoting theshepherd:
The most important thing with any engine you own is to crank periodicaly and bring up to operating temperature to refresh gaskets and seals.


...also put a 'load' on it.

Good info...
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 256
706. JRRP
2:45 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
new blog!!!!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6199
705. zoomiami
2:43 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Link

Link for interview
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
704. zoomiami
2:39 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Just watched an interview with a retired Coast Guardsman who rode out the storm on Crystal Beach. Ended up having to swim out of his house, in the water for almost 14 hours, floating on debris.

Actually swam/moved across the channel to the next piece of land over where he was rescued by helicopter.

Says he's not living on the water any more.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
703. Mikla
2:36 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
If you are ambitious and a bit mechanically inclined, you can pull the float bowl off the carb (turn gas valve off first), get yourself a can of contact cleaner (from home depot or radio shack) spray all the orifices and surfaces with the contact cleaner (including the inside of the float bowl) and reassemble.

This will eliminate the chance of gas residue gumming up the inside of the carb jets and/or causing the float to stick when you go to start the gen the following year.

This is what we used to do when I was a motorcycle mechanic and stored bikes for the winter.
Quoting MissNadia:
Generator storage
Over the years I have found the best way is to run the carb dry and fill the tank with gas with an additive in it. An empty tank may rust and the particles will screw the carb up when run. At the start of the season I drain the gas and run it in my car. Put fresh in for the season.
Member Since: October 13, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 305
702. Chicklit
2:34 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Anyway, off to mow the lawn again before we get rain in from the Gulf.
As usual, in the early stages, the models are all over the place. GFDL at present has it going to Nova Scotia. While BAMs has it headed toward the Caymans!
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11390
701. Orcasystems
2:29 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
From my blog - 93L
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
700. MissNadia
2:28 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Generator storage
Over the years I have found the best way is to run the carb dry and fill the tank with gas with an additive in it. An empty tank may rust and the particles will screw the carb up when run. At the start of the season I drain the gas and run it in my car. Put fresh in for the season.
Member Since: July 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3003
699. JRRP
2:27 PM GMT on September 20, 2008

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6199
698. theshepherd
2:27 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Quoting StormW:
651. Autistic2 8:56 AM EDT on September 20, 2008
GoodMorning all

Should I store my new generator emoty of full with sta-bull gas stabalizer?

STORMW

Any links to follow that talk about how a tropical wave becomes a dertission? What makes it start spinning, etc?

Hurricane Zone


Great link for me, thanx.

Generator gas storage:
Amount to leave in generator is up to you. Some will warn of condensation in empty tanks resulting in water collection, but this is easily monitored and tank is easily drained if that occurs. You should leave enough to keep carb gaskets from drying out.
The most important thing with any engine you own is to crank periodicaly and bring up to operating temperature to refresh gaskets and seals.
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10139
697. Chicklit
2:26 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Kman, as usual you are correct IMO.
If you look at the area around 15/65, it would appear that 93L is encountering lower shear and conditions more favorable for development as Doc Masters said.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11390
695. kmanislander
2:22 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Quoting btwntx08:

it doesn't say 93L on that so its not the invest


Those coordinates are for the wave that just came off the coast of Africa
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
694. Mikla
2:21 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
GFDL, SHIP & HWRF models averaged together:

...again, not sure how much use it is...
Member Since: October 13, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 305
692. Chicklit
2:19 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Quoting system345:
RIP 93L

Link
I think this prognostication is a bit premature.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11390
691. kmanislander
2:18 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Quoting Chicklit:
Good Morning, Kman.
93L looks stronger this morning, doesn't it?
Link


Yes it is but as I just posted I see they have now repositioned the low further East near 65W. Current motion is shown as NW but it is too early in the game with a very disorganized system to say that is a done deal.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
690. Chicklit
2:15 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Good Morning, Kman.
93L looks stronger this morning, doesn't it?
Link
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11390
689. Orcasystems
2:12 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Blog updated with:

Caribbean System... complete with Spaghetti Models 93L

Caribbean System... with Cloud Cover 93L

Invest 94L??

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY...CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST EAST OF NICARAGUA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

Present Satellite picture of BOC/Caribbean

The Next Train.. is this it?

CMC 00Z..
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
688. Chicklit
2:11 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Anyone know what is forecast for this?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11390
687. kmanislander
2:10 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Good morning all

Overnight 93L has fired up a lot of convection but is still disorganized. The coordinates given for the low being near 67.5W do not appear to be supported by visible obs. I believe this will be another system like pre Gustav where the low had to be repositioned several times as it " jumped around " depending on where the deepest convection was to be found.

The 850 mb vorticity in the E Caribbean shows an elongated area oriented SW to NE and it looks as if the low is redeveloping closer to 14.5N 65W.

This may be at the mid levels and does line up with the 850 mb signature.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
686. stormdude77
2:09 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
93L is looking better than yesterday, but is still has a lot of work to do...

685. RickWPB
2:05 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Quoting Autistic2:
GoodMorning all

Should I store my new generator empty of full with sta-bull gas stabilizer?

STORMW

Any links to follow that talk about how a tropical wave becomes a dertission? What makes it start spinning, etc?
I've had a generator ever since Frances and Jeanne came for a visit 3 yrs ago to S. Florida. For 3 years it's been running fine by ALWAYS having Sta-Bil gas additive in all of my gas for the generator. When I'm done with running the generator, I run the carb empty by turning off gas supply and letting it stall (takes about 1-2 minutes to run empty). I would then empty the gas tank and store the gen it in my garage.

BUT, this year when I went to start my gen with fresh gas and fresh Sta-bil additive - it started on the first pull - but would only run with it half choked. I had to have the carb disassembled and cleaned out. The tech told me that the gas available for us is so bad now (with ethanol), that I need to run it once per month. So along with the fuel stabilizer additive, I keep about 1 gallon of gas in the generator for this.

Hope this helps.
Member Since: September 26, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 359
684. sporteguy03
2:04 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
93L is getting slowly better organized each day, I am impressed with how it looked now from two days ago. Expect 48-72 hours we might see a depression.
Secondly, no 6z GFDL and HWRF models were run today.

Lastly,
No matter where 93L goes it will effect someone so it will not go out to sea it in the Caribbean Sea and will effect someone with heavy rains and gusty winds.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
682. TxBlaze
1:58 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Very little coverage on the outside of Galveston also. Many coastal (and inland) towns were affected too by Ike. The news(when we can watch or listen on radio) is mostly about Galveston and Houston. It is very hard to get any information where we live. It is all very sad.
681. InTheCone
1:53 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Quoting UPRM1CIMA:
665 GFDL and HWRF runs take 93l out to sea...

Looks to me like they have it directly affecting almost 4 million US
citizens (Puerto Rico), not to mention other folks in the NE Lesser Antilles...


Sorry - my bad, was just looking at how poor the models are doing with it so far and not really even thinking about impacts. I hope it leaves EVERYONE alone, even a weak system could cuse alot of grief over the mountains.

Again - sorry!
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1990
680. UPRM1CIMA
1:45 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
665 GFDL and HWRF runs take 93l out to sea...

Looks to me like they have it directly affecting almost 4 million US
citizens (Puerto Rico), not to mention other folks in the NE Lesser Antilles...
Member Since: May 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 52
679. AllBoardedUp
1:39 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Quoting Chicklit:

Great article. Thank-you for sharing that.

Sad story and you are right about the press concentrating on Galveston. But it just isn't Galveston only, it particular places in Galveston. I haven't seen a camera yet go into the regular neighborhoods.Thousands of residence being banned from going on the island to look or quickly salvage any little keepsake, so they continue to watch the news to get a peek at their neighborhood and all of the cameras are concentrating on the Strand business area, the historical district or the wealthy peoples beach homes. It's been a week and still trying to see how much damage done to my father-in-laws house who is staying with relatives in central Texas. I might have connections and will be able to get on the island today.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
678. Tazmanian
1:36 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
20/1145 UTC 4.3N 20.8W TOO WEAK INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115375
677. hurricane23
1:31 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Takeing a glance at this mornings best track update convection is still well removed from the proposed circulation.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13840
675. Chicklit
1:29 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Quoting nola70119:


There isn't many media out there looking This is a story I produced for the Wall Street Journal on the Isle de Jean Charlesin Terrebonne Parish, LA. Th small island got ten feet of surge 300 miles away from where the hurricane hit. I have been to Beaumont and SJ is on the right track-- these areas are completely neglected in the aftermath. All the media wants to know is Galveston...

Great article. Thank-you for sharing that.

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11390
674. AllBoardedUp
1:24 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Quoting Patrap:


Quick Fit
N9504C and N9505C N95 Particulate Respirator
Pleats Plus%uFFFD N95 and R95 Particulate Respirators
QuickLatch Respirator






Tips for Home Gutting after a Hurricane Link So, you want to gut a house?

Good. Let's review what this process actually entails, starting with a simple definition and moving on to the harder stuff later.

Gut is used here as a transitive verb, referring to the act of removing or destroying the most important parts of an object or being.

In the case of gutting a house, the procedure is usually undertaken for two reasons:

1. The house has been damaged in some way which makes it unsanitary or extremely unpleasant to live in. This problem is most often seen in flood zones, and accounts for many of the 200,000 unlivable homes left in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. In order to make a flooded home habitable, the house must be gutted to remove mold living in walls, ceilings, and floorboards.

2. The house has been somehow damaged in an area normally hidden by a wall. This doesn't happen too often, and the gutting process is usually quite swift, as only a small section of wall must be removed.

This guide will mainly cover the first reason to gut a house, but can be applied to smaller jobs.

What You Need:

1. Three foot long crowbar
2. Hammer
3. Large rolling trashcans
4. Tile remover (flat blade at the end of a long pole)
5. Axe
6. Work gloves
7. Lots of dust masks
8. Lots of water

Preparations

This is long, tiring work. From my experience, it takes a team of twelve people about a day to gut a seven room house. Depending on the house construction, and extent of mold damage, it might take up to three days to gut even a small house.
Thanks Patrap
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
673. hurricane23
1:24 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Wow this blog is crazy sometimes lol admid sorry about that.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13840
672. JRRP
1:23 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
PR radar
Link
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6199
671. hurricane23
1:23 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13840
670. hurricane23
1:23 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13840
669. hurricane23
1:22 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13840
668. hurricane23
1:20 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Autistic2 here is a tad more simpler page on how a tropical cyclones form and its affects.View the hurricane intensity animations i created.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13840
667. WxLogic
1:18 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Quoting benirica:
Ive got a question for you guys...
First off, GOOD MORNING!
Ok, now...
Why do the models and NHC say West movement and along comes Steve Lyons and says NorthWest expected?


Well...that's the keyword "expected". So he's not saying that is not moving NW but that he expects it to start moving NW soon... so for the time being is moving W. :)
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5031
666. extreme236
1:18 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Quoting hurricane23:
Not very impressed with 93L this morning but convection does appear to be trying to build near the mlc/llc.


Yea I'm really not too impressed either...once that wind shear slackens a bit we should see some improvement.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
665. InTheCone
1:14 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
GFDL and HWRF runs take 93l out to sea,
GFS takes it into South America!

They have a good handle on it - LOL!!

Link
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1990
664. hurricane23
1:14 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Not very impressed with 93L this morning but convection does appear to be trying to build near the mlc/llc.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13840
662. JRRP
1:08 PM GMT on September 20, 2008
Quoting weatherman113:
what happen to that african wave?



donĀ“t have closed circulation
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6199

Viewing: 712 - 662

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
30 °F
Mostly Cloudy