Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Long range hurricane season outlook

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:46 PM GMT on September 16, 2008

If you take a ferry from Galveston northeast across the Galveston Bay inlet, you arrive at the small town of Port Bolivar, which sits at the end of the 25 mile-long Bolivar Peninsula. Since the peninsula was situated on the right front side of Ike's eye, it took the worst of the storm. The Hurricane Hunters measured 110 mph winds at the shore when Ike made landfall, and Ike's highest storm surge hit the peninsula. The exact height of the storm surge is unknown, since there were no tide gauges there. Based on reports of a storm surge of 11 feet at Galveston Island and 13.5 feet at the Louisiana/Texas border, it is likely that storm surge heights along the Bolivar Peninsula were 14 feet or higher. Photos taken by the U.S. Geological Survey yesterday (Figure 1) of the Bolivar Peninsula show the tremendous damage a huge storm surge can do--entire neighborhoods of homes washed off their foundations and completely destroyed. Had Ike not wobbled 50 miles to the right in the hours prior to landfall, the scenes below could have been what Galveston would have looked like, even with their seawall.

Figure 1. Oblique aerial photography of Bolivar Peninsula, TX, from September 9, 2008 (top) and September 15, 2008, two days after landfall of Hurricane Ike. Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey. Their web site will be posting more comparison photos in coming days as they do more flights.

Dr. Abby Sallenger, Jr. of the USGS described yesterday's damage survey flight:

Here's what we saw in our overflight from about Grand Chenier in western Louisiana to Freeport below Galveston.

We saw vast areas flooded by storm surge; the water extended landward in places for tens of kilometers. The beaches served as rims that contained the flood waters. In Louisiana, channels were cut (naturally) through the beaches so the water would drain seaward. Where the max surge occurred (between Bolivar Peninsula and Sabine Pass), the returning water completely submerged the Gulf shore for kilometers. The maximum impacts were on the Bolivar Peninsula, the site of our example comparisons online now.

How you can help
For those of you who want to help those in need, I'm proud to say that a group of wunderground members are spearheading their own Hurricane Ike relief effort, aimed at providing assistance and supplies to people that are not in the mainstream relief areas. Deductions are tax-deductible, and can be made in several ways:

Patrap's wunderblog
www.stormjunkie.com
www.portlight.org

Of course, contributing to the Red Cross or your local church is another great way to help out. Thanks!

The tropics are quiet
The tropics are quiet. The area of disturbed weather (92L) approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands that we were watching has been torn apart by wind shear. There are no threat areas to discuss at this time. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models indicate the possibility of something developing in about six days in the Western Caribbean near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The GFS model predicts development of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa about six days from now.

Atlantic hurricane outlook for the last half of September
Well, we've just come out of a long and intense period of hurricane activity--29 straight days with a named storm in the Atlantic, with all four of these storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--causing heavy damage and inflicting high death tolls. The last time we had such an active period was in 2005, when we went 56 straight days from August 2 to September 26 with a named storm in the Atlantic. Katrina, Ophelia, and Rita all made landfall during that period. Fortunately, even the busiest hurricane seasons take a breather. We had a 4-day break in 2005 at the end of September. This year, we look to get a longer break of 7-10 days.

Climatologically, the last half of September is one of the busiest periods in the Atlantic for hurricane activity. The peak of the season occurs on September 10, and the entire month of September is very active, with a high chance of dangerous major hurricanes (Figure 2). Sea Surface temperatures and oceanic heat content are at their peak right now, and have not begun to cool yet. Wind shear is near average or a little below average over most of the tropical Atlantic, and is forecast to remain so for the next two weeks. The peak portion of hurricane season lasts until mid-October, and I anticipate that we have at least one more major hurricane coming, and probably 4-5 more named storms.

Figure 2. Tracks of all hurricane and tropical storms for the past 156 years that formed in the last half of September.

In the longer term, winds shear is predicted by NOAA's CFS model to remain below average over the Caribbean for all of October and November. The model also predicts that Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will range from 1-2°C above average over most of the hurricane main development region (from the coast of Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° latitude, including the Caribbean). SSTs have cooled dramatically in the Gulf of Mexico and Bahamas, thanks to the passage of Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike stirring up cold waters. These reduced SSTs will reduce the possibility of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. and Bahamas during the remainder of hurricane season. However, SSTs are about 1°C above average over the Caribbean and the region between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. That's a lot of fuel for potential hurricanes during the coming months.

Figure 3. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for September 15, 2008. Note the strong cooling of up to 4°C in the Gulf of Mexico created by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike when they churned up cool waters from the depths. Image credit: U.S. Navy.

When will activity pick up again?
There is an oscillation in the atmosphere I haven't talked about much before, called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that will influence when hurricane season will get more active. The MJO is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator, and can act to boost hurricane activity when it propagates into the Atlantic. The MJO has a period of about 30-60 days, and is currently in its inactive phase over the Atlantic. However, according to the latest MJO discussion from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, we are expected to enter an active phase for the MJO over the western Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean beginning six days from now. As I mentioned above, the ECMWF and NOGAPS models are indicating the possibility of development in this region beginning about Monday of next week. So, enjoy the quiet interlude this week, because I expect by late next week there will be one new named storm in the Atlantic. The steering current pattern is not expected to change in the coming two weeks, and will favor steering hurricanes into the East Coast of the U.S. or Gulf of Mexico. By the beginning of October, I expect more recurving hurricane to occur, as the jet stream begins its annual Fall migration southward.

Jeff Masters

San Leon Texas Devastated By IKE.... (txcuda)

San Leon, Texas...just north of Galveston Island across the bay and due east of Dickinson,Texas was devastated by the storm surge that Hurricane Ike sent out way Friday night and early Saturday morning. I have never seen devastation like this in this community. Talked to several old timer that I have known for some time that to a person told me that this was on par with the damage that Hurricane Carla did back in '61. I was only to survey the area from FM 517 going into town and made it as far as 1st St. before it was time to head in before dark. Most of the businesses there on both the Dickinson Bayou side as well as the marinas on the north shore are completely destroyed. I had reports this afternoon of fatalities here as well. Sure wish those folks had evacuated and not tried to ride out the storm....TXCUDA

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1001. polarcane 2:05 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Well guys, I am back to work today. Baytown is a changed town. My wife and kids are in travel trailer in front of the house with the generator plugged in. I am thinking it may be one more week before power is restored. Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 206

1002. Hurricajun 2:05 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
wow, blog hole or is there silence on the blog?? Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 48

1003. HrDelta 2:07 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting LakeShadow: Buffalo has little natural disaster risk but there are not really any good jobs here. Property is cheap but taxes are high. (most of our populations moves to Atlanta or North Carolina!) The people are mighty friendly, the food is awesome and the proximity to 2 great lakes, Niagara Falls, Toronto, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and NYC are nice though, and I wont ever leave... Living on the Upper Escarpment of the Niagara Peninsula, I will never need flood insurance...all the extra water goes over the Falls... Sure there are big snowstorms about once a year but that's vacation time! The worst part of living here is after the first snowfall when the people forget how to drive in the slush. So long as you dont have a flat roof, you dont have to shovel it off... :o) Flat roofs have the tendancy to collapse under the weight of 3ft or so of snow and ice... mainly big stores have this problem..its fun to see the guys up there with a snowblower clearing the roofs. Other than that the giant snowstorms are actually a whole lotta fun. Thundersnow is heli-cool. Did you know Buffalo lies on top of a fault line? There was a map a National Geographic 2 years ago that showed Buffalo as being vulnrable to earthquakes. Member Since: October 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 445

1004. lawntonlookers 2:07 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Good morning everyone. My daily check on the tropics. Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570

1005. LAlurker 2:07 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting LakeShadow: Buffalo has little natural disaster risk but there are not really any good jobs here. Property is cheap but taxes are high. (most of our populations moves to Atlanta or North Carolina!) The people are mighty friendly, the food is awesome and the proximity to 2 great lakes, Niagara Falls, Toronto, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and NYC are nice though, and I wont ever leave... Living on the Upper Escarpment of the Niagara Peninsula, I will never need flood insurance...all the extra water goes over the Falls... Sure there are big snowstorms about once a year but that's vacation time! The worst part of living here is after the first snowfall when the people forget how to drive in the slush. So long as you dont have a flat roof, you dont have to shovel it off... :o) Flat roofs have the tendancy to collapse under the weight of 3ft or so of snow and ice... mainly big stores have this problem..its fun to see the guys up there with a snowblower clearing the roofs. Other than that the giant snowstorms are actually a whole lotta fun. Thundersnow is heli-cool. You might consider it vacation time - FEMA might consider it a disaster. Link Member Since: July 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 155

1006. Hurricajun 2:08 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
polarcane, Here in SELA, we still do not have power from Gustav, so if ya'll do get ya'll power in the next week I would be so excited for ya'll. It is great to see someone's lights go on!!! Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 48

1007. flaboyinga 2:09 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems: Take a look at this picture.. its not going to be quiet for long We'll have to take any break we can get.

1008. LAlurker 2:09 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting HrDelta: Did you know Buffalo lies on top of a fault line? There was a map a National Geographic 2 years ago that showed Buffalo as being vulnrable to earthquakes. That's why the falls exist! Member Since: July 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 155

1009. polarcane 2:11 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting Hurricajun: polarcane, Here in SELA, we still do not have power from Gustav, so if ya'll do get ya'll power in the next week I would be so excited for ya'll. It is great to see someone's lights go on!!! Well I would say half of Baytown is lit. I work at the hospital so it was top priority. My house is in the outskirts so probably low priority. Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 206

1010. Seastep 2:11 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
StormW, thanks for the update. That area you mention w/o moisture was interesting to watch on sat. Very symmetrical this morning, like a mini-mini cane donut presentation. I haven't seen mention of the area near 12N/57W. In looking at sats, appears to be some organization there and convection picking up. Sorry, still can't get link to work, but any Central Atl sat shows it to me. On the link note, any FAQs regarding that? TIA Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

1011. flaboyinga 2:14 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting StormW: 924. vortfix 7:54 AM EDT on September 17, 2008 Good morning Storm! Answer my question right now!! When is our next storm forming and where will it impact?? Sometime...somewhere! The Word , from The Man! lol

1012. agrarianrrl 2:14 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Haiti Aid Link Quoting chrisrw: Shows on my credit card statement as Network for Good. I expect if you Google that you'll be getting close.

1013. PensacolaDoug 2:16 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8RMBIUfiKtI CycloneBoz's IKE video for th latecommers. Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4828

1014. theshepherd 2:17 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Maybe premature, but trying to be proactive. Anyone heard any sword rattling from Zoning and Planning affecting the building permitting process in the Houston area ? Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 8226

1015. BajaALemt 2:18 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Hey Doug..morning. Sure was nice to see Oz much better prepared for this one. Good vid

1016. PensacolaDoug 2:20 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
He takes it seriously. Thats a good thing if you're gonna repeatedly put your butt on the line! Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4828

1017. flaboyinga 2:19 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting HrDelta: Did you know Buffalo lies on top of a fault line? There was a map a National Geographic 2 years ago that showed Buffalo as being vulnrable to earthquakes. If you look at the fault line map for the US east of the Mississippi River basin, it's surprising how many population centers are on a fault line. The Memphis area was shaken a few times last year. Nothing big,but there is some tectonic plate pressure there I guess.

1018. BajaALemt 2:21 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
No kiddin. I thought the inflatable vest showed just how well thought out his plans were. Kudos, dude

1019. BajaALemt 2:23 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
New Madrid...huge fault through the midwest. They had a shaker on it a few months back

1020. BajaALemt 2:24 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Mountains = faultlines. Tis how they form. One side of the plate dives down under the other part

1021. flaboyinga 2:25 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting PensacolaDoug: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8RMBIUfiKtI CycloneBoz's IKE video for th latecommers. Link

1022. Bones429 2:25 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting flaboyinga: If you look at the fault line map for the US east of the Mississippi River basin, it's surprising how many population centers are on a fault line. The Memphis area was shaken a few times last year. Nothing big,but there is some tectonic plate pressure there I guess. Memphis and several other large cities sit right in the middle of the New Madrid Fault Line...and back in 1995 there was not one building in Memphis that could meet 1995 US Earthquake Standards for Construction. The New Madrid Fault is responsibile for creating Real Foot Lake in NW TN, the lake used to be the Mississippi River until 1812 when the New madrid earthquake occurred and moved the river to it present locations.....

1023. flaboyinga 2:30 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting BajaALemt: Mountains = faultlines. Tis how they form. One side of the plate dives down under the other part YUP. There's a few advantages to being 35 miles inland, 30 ft above sea level on level ground, in the middle of the pine tree factory. LOL

1024. TheCaneWhisperer 2:32 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Morning All. Hope the NoGaps is wrong, sheesh. Good thing is that is has been more often than not this year.

1025. flaboyinga 2:33 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting Bones429: Memphis and several other large cities sit right in the middle of the New Madrid Fault Line...and back in 1995 there was not one building in Memphis that could meet 1995 US Earthquake Standards for Construction. The New Madrid Fault is responsibile for creating Real Foot Lake in NW TN, the lake used to be the Mississippi River until 1812 when the New madrid earthquake occurred and moved the river to it present locations..... Yup. A lot of people are living on the backbone of the sleeping dragon.

1026. flaboyinga 2:41 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer: Morning All. Hope the NoGaps is wrong, sheesh. Good thing is that is has been more often than not this year. Still, it's nice to see the "train" has stopped for a while coming off the west coast of Africa. Maybe that Yucatan area low will not go beyond a TD.

1027. TheCaneWhisperer 2:42 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting flaboyinga: Still, it's nice to see the "train" has stopped for a while coming off the west coast of Africa. Maybe that Yucatan area low will not go beyond a TD. Looks to start back up by the end of the week though, the break is VERY nice.

1028. HrDelta 2:42 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting Bones429: Memphis and several other large cities sit right in the middle of the New Madrid Fault Line...and back in 1995 there was not one building in Memphis that could meet 1995 US Earthquake Standards for Construction. The New Madrid Fault is responsibile for creating Real Foot Lake in NW TN, the lake used to be the Mississippi River until 1812 when the New madrid earthquake occurred and moved the river to it present locations..... And while we are talking about this, how two other obscure vulrable areas. There is also a fault line near Charleston. Also, there is vulnrability to Eathquakes in the area between Western North Carolina, and Eastern Tennessee. Not to mention faults running every which way west (There is even one close to Colo. Springs). In essence, no place in the USA is completely safe to live and has some vulnrablity to disasters. Member Since: October 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 445

1029. Beachfoxx 2:44 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Hi everyone... StormW, keep the tropics quiet, heh? Baja - YGM coming... Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 153 Comments: 29285

1030. Bones429 2:45 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting flaboyinga: Still, it's nice to see the "train" has stopped for a while coming off the west coast of Africa. Maybe that Yucatan area low will not go beyond a TD. And Opel turned left and hit Mexico.....LOL.. I don't count out anything any more when it comes to troipcal weather....I was working in the EOC the night that the NHC finally admitted they has made a mistake and Opel wasn't going to turn left....that was a fun night...NOT

1031. flaboyinga 2:46 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting HrDelta: And while we are talking about this, how two other obscure vulrable areas. There is also a fault line near Charleston. Also, there is vulnrability to Eathquakes in the area between Western North Carolina, and Eastern Tennessee. Not to mention faults running every which way west (There is even one close to Colo. Springs). In essence, no place in the USA is completely safe to live and has some vulnrablity to disasters. Quoting flaboyinga: Yup. A lot of people are living on the backbone of the sleeping dragon.

1032. HrDelta 2:47 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
On the NOGAPS models, did anybody notice that system coming off of Africa in the Western Sahara, intensifying, and heading to Europe? I can't tell that system is Tropical or not though. Member Since: October 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 445

1033. mightywhitemike 2:51 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Yea!!!!!!!! My power is back on. Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 34

1034. fireflymom 2:53 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Just as a side note-Niagra Falls were created along a fault line by the uplift and earthquake process. We all have our challenges where ever we choose to live and work. Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 507

1035. conchygirl 2:54 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting mightywhitemike: Yea!!!!!!!! My power is back on. Good news, slowly but surely they will get it back. Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910

1036. NEwxguy 2:56 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting mightywhitemike: Yea!!!!!!!! My power is back on. LOL,one of things you don't even think about until its gone? Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 816 Comments: 13132

1037. flaboyinga 2:56 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
If anyone is interested here is a link to USGS recent USA earthquake activity. One recently happened in the Knoxville, Tenn. area. Link

1038. flaboyinga 2:57 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting mightywhitemike: Yea!!!!!!!! My power is back on. Great !!!!!

1039. retrogram 3:01 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
So where is Josephine heading? I have a son in St Thomas VI - a Chef there. He told me about this site. He has been there since June and I sweat out every storm forming. Will lurk most of the time but really have learned a lot in a few short weeks.

1040. PensacolaNewbie 3:04 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting PensacolaDoug: 3 for a dollar. Is this like the selling the teenagers? Ok, what do you have to do to be labeled a troll? If it's just for speaking their minds, then I'm in trouble. I've never been one to sugar coat stuff.

1041. PensacolaNewbie 3:09 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting CycloneBoz: Thanks for the kind comments on my video, all! :) Those pictures from the pensula are frightening. That's why I have an approved list of cities where I will visit in a hurricane and not stray from that list. I could have easily taken the ferry to the peninsula, it's just a few miles from where I was. A place like that provides no protection at all in a hurricane, and you can see the results. I believe that one house made it because it was created from reinforced concrete, like the parking garage was. Anyway, Galveston Island was on my approved list. One large city that is not on my list is New Orleans. Should a big storm hit the city like Ike hit this peninsula, you're talking both wind and water destruction! I'm crazy, but not that crazy! People should know by now that peninsulas are not safe during a hurricane. Just look at Florida.

1042. flaboyinga 3:15 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting retrogram: So where is Josephine heading? I have a son in St Thomas VI - a Chef there. He told me about this site. He has been there since June and I sweat out every storm forming. Will lurk most of the time but really have learned a lot in a few short weeks. We haven't heard a peep out of Jo for several days. Might be a little convection left over, but Puerto Rico radar only had scattered rain at 240 mile range setting.

1043. CaptnDan142 3:21 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting Bones429: I was working in the EOC the night that the NHC finally admitted they has made a mistake and Opel wasn't going to turn left....that was a fun night...NOT Ugh... Opal. I was working, in Louisiana. We had evac'd the Gulf already, standing by for orders to evac the boat inland. Personnel Manager called, said to turn the boat over to the Mate and grab all "the Florida boys and head for home." Great, we were in Port Fourchon - we had already evac'd our cars to Houma. I managed to get us a helicopter ride to a place close to the cars and our journey began. About Mobile, the guy behind me starts flashing his lights. We all pulled over and he told us he had heard about the acceleration of the storm. Lovely. I finally get to Panama City and go to my apartment. Nobody there. We were planning to move to a house we had rented during my time off. Things had gotten moved up on the schedule and my wife and the girls managed to get us 75% moved. They thought it would be a great surprise for me to get home and not have all that work to do. Yup, I was surprised. Best part was - I didn't know exactly where the new house was. My wife found it while I was out at work and I signed the lease via mail. It was a cluster^&%$. I finally called the phone company, gave them my number and they told me where I lived. LOL We decided that while the surprise was a cool idea, we wouldn't be doing that again. After all that - the storm seemed kinda anti-climactic. Lesson learned: Communication is important. ;-) Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856

1044. flaboyinga 3:33 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting retrogram: So where is Josephine heading? I have a son in St Thomas VI - a Chef there. He told me about this site. He has been there since June and I sweat out every storm forming. Will lurk most of the time but really have learned a lot in a few short weeks. retrogram, here is a link that might help you. Link

1045. flaboyinga 3:37 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting flaboyinga: retrogram, here is a link that might help you. Link I posted the wrong link. Sorry! I'm gonna try again. Link

1046. PensacolaNewbie 5:57 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting aubiesgirl: there's a fever alright..lol..I think I"m gonna get sick...eck..lol who's playing?

1047. PensacolaNewbie 6:15 PM GMT on September 17, 2008
Quoting BajaALemt: No kiddin. I thought the inflatable vest showed just how well thought out his plans were. Kudos, dude I thought the vest showed just how crazy he was to be out there in the first place

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