Ike hammers the Midwest; fate of those on Bolivar Peninsula still unknown

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:54 PM GMT on September 15, 2008

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Ike caused plenty of trouble Sunday over the Midwest. High winds near Cincinnati killed one person and caused about 1.3 million people to lose power in southern Ohio and northern Kentucky. A Delta Airlines hangar at the Cincinnati airport lost its roof, and the airport control tower had to be evacuated. Flooding and high winds in Missouri and Illinois caused at least two storm-related deaths. Ike surprised Louisville, Kentucky, with sustained winds of 40 mph with a gust to hurricane force, 75 mph, at 1:56 pm CDT. Ike swept into western New York early this morning, knocking out power to 45,000 people and doing about $100 million in damage.

Part of the destruction wrought in the Midwest and Northeast was also due to the remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Lowell. Lowell hit Mexico's Baja Peninsula earlier in the week, and the moisture from the storm flowed northeastward up the axis of a cold front sweeping across the U.S. This same cold front also absorbed Ike. Some peak wind gusts observed yesterday from Ike:

Louisville, KY 75 MPH
Covington, KY 74 MPH
Huntingburg, IN 67 MPH
Fort Knox, KY 64 MPH
Owensboro, KY 63 MPH
Walnut Ridge, AR 62 MPH
Popular Bluff, MO 61 MPH
Cincinnati/Lunkin, OH 61 MPH

Some peak storm rainfall totals for various states, as of 10 PM CDT on Sunday:

Houston, TX: 15.75"
Glenmore, LA: 7.62"
Clinto, AR: 8.93"
Maize, KS: 11.44:
Fairview, KS: 11.83"
Oakland Mills, IA: 7.60"
Peotone, IL: 10.40"
Portage, IN: 11.46"
South Haven, MI: 6.68"
Mill Creek, OH: 7.08"
Murrysville, PA: 5.41"
Genoa City, WI: 3.25"
Falls City, NE: 3.39"


Figure 1. Total radar-estimated precipitation from Ike.

Chicago gets hammered by Lowell's remnants
O'Hare airport in Chicago broke its 20-year old 24-hour rainfall record Saturday, when 6.81" fell. The heavy rain triggered the worst flooding on record for the Des Plaines River in Chicago's western suburbs. The heavy rain was due to a cold front that was packed with moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Lowell.

Ike's damage
In its wake, Ike has left a Texas-sized disaster. AIR Worldwide, Inc, is estimating that total insured damage in Texas and Louisiana will be $10 billion. An additional $1 billion in damage was likely done in the Gulf of Mexico, due to wind and wave damage to oil platforms and the indirect loss of revenue attributable to reductions in oil and gas production. Using the usual rule of thumb that total hurricane damages are double the insured damages, the price tag for Ike will be about $22 billion. That would make Ike the third costliest hurricane in history. Only Hurricane Katrina of 2005 and Hurricane Andrew of 1992 did more damage than Ike has. AIR has not yet factored in the damage done to the Midwest on Sunday. Other risk-modeling insurance firms are estimating the total on-shore insured property damage will range between $6 billion and $18 billion. These estimates place Ike somewhere between the sixth and second most destructive hurricane on record.

The media is focusing primarily on two main areas in this massive disaster--the destruction in Galveston, and the plight of millions living in Houston and its suburbs. I'd like to call attention to two hard-hit areas mostly ignored by the media--the Bolivar Peninsula just northeast of Galveston, and coastal Louisiana.

The Bolivar Peninsula
If you take a ferry from Galveston northeast across the Galveston Bay inlet, you arrive at the small town of Port Bolivar, which sits at the end of the 25 mile-long Bolivar Peninsula. Since the peninsula was situated on the right front side of Ike's eye, it took the worst of the storm. The Hurricane Hunters measured 110 mph winds at the shore when Ike made landfall, and Ike's highest storm surge hit the peninsula. The exact height of the storm surge is unknown, since there were no tide gauges there. Based on reports of a storm surge of 11 feet at Galveston Island and 13.5 feet at the Louisiana/Texas border, it is likely that storm surge heights along the Bolivar Peninsula were 15 feet or higher. Photos taken by the Coast Guard yesterday (Figure 2) of the Bolivar Peninsula show damage characteristic of a 15+ foot high storm surge--homes washed off their foundations and completely destroyed. The hurricane probably cut new channels through the peninsula, and it will be difficult for rescuers to reach the area.


Figure 2. Coast Guard photo of the Bolivar Peninsula after Hurricane Ike. All the houses along this section were washed off their foundations by the storm surge and destroyed. Image credit: bolivar.org.

Some have criticized the National Weather Service for overwarning, with their pronouncement of "certain death" for those who ignored evacuation orders. Well, I don't think anyone in the Bolivar Peninsula will complain that they were overwarned. While death was not certain among those who weathered the storm in houses pulverized by the storm surge, it was probable. According to the New York Times, one Bolivar Peninsula resident was washed all the way across across Galveston Bay to the mainland after the storm surge destroyed his house and threw him into the water. A helicopter picked him up. So far, there are three confirmed deaths on the peninsula, from the town of Port Bolivar. The peninsula had a population of 3,800, of which 500 did not evacuate. As many as 90 people were rescued from the peninsula in the hours leading up to the storm, but at least 400 people remained. Most of these people are as yet unaccounted for. According to news reports, 80% of the buildings on the peninsula were destroyed.

The moral: we don't know precisely where a hurricane will hit, which necessitates dire warnings for portions of the coast that will not receive the worst of the storm. The worst of a hurricane affects only a relatively narrow portion of the coast. And the worst of Hurricane Ike--the third most damaging hurricane of all time--was very, very bad indeed.

Louisiana
Hurricane Ike hit Louisiana very hard. The entire coast of Louisiana from Grand Isle at the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Texas border received a storm surge between 5 and 13 feet. In many cases, such as in Lake Charles, the flood heights were higher than those of Hurricane Rita in 2005. Terrebonne Parish in central Louisiana, which took a direct hit from Gustav but did not get flooded by that storm, got a 5-8 foot storm surge from Ike. The surge flooded over 13,000 homes and killed at least two people in the parish.

The tropics are quiet
Today, for the first time since August 15, we do not have a named storm in the Atlantic. The remains of Josephine are completely gone, so we will not have a seventh consecutive named storm hit the U.S. The landfall of Ike on Saturday set a new record, giving us strikes by six consecutive named storms. Five was the previous record, set most recently in 2004.

An area of disturbed weather (92L), 600 miled east of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, has changed little in the past 24 hours. This disturbance is under about 25 knots of wind shear, and is suffering from dry air to its west. NHC is giving this system a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. Wind shear is expected to remain high, above 20 knots, for the next three days. By Thursday, if 92L finds itself farther south than expected--near the Bahama Islands--shear may drop enough to allow development to occur. We should keep an eye on this one, if it does stay to the south.

Elsewhere, the GFS model is forecasting development of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa seven days from now.

I'll discuss the long-term outlook for the coming two weeks in a blog entry on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Rain compliments of IKE (BillAK64)
Salt Creek is a little over its banks. Someone must think this is a drive thru carwash.
Rain compliments of IKE
More Dickinson Texas IKE Damage (txcuda)
Today...Sunday I was out all day recording where we had damage to the phone system and was able to get these pics. Saw the first power company workers on Deats working to get the trees out of the way in preparation for system restoral.VeriZon techs were out as well assessing damage. Dusk to dawn curfew still in effect..but power on now in area of Liggios.These images taken north of Deats and northward to Gill Rd on NW side of town. Stay Safe!!
More Dickinson Texas IKE Damage

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1192. theshepherd
2:57 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
As Mark Twain said "Write about what you know"
I have 32 years of experience in my field.
I'm a builder, I've depended on wunderground site for years to assist me in decisions when there's a witch offshore swimming anywhere near my job. For normal times local weather.com infra red loops suffice.
I've had an, off to the side, comical wu mail exchange with a long time poster about how an ol' man with no formal weather forcasting background would try to predict hurricane landfalls before computers, let alone computer models. But, that is where the exchange was, off to the side in wu mail.
I visit this site to gleen from authentic forcasters, info to help me do my job. If I should post an occasional comment, you can rest assured it wil have to do with the construction industry or an actual personal experience. I'm only trying to "pay it forward" to the ones who have helped me.
When I get to Houston my job will be simple, put it back like it was or better. What won't be simple, is where do my subcontractors sleep, eat or fill up their gas tanks. And you can rest assured, I won't turn my back on the Gulf without checking here first.
So please, life is complicated enough without having to wade through a bunch of trash to find my tools. I want to know what steers a hurricane, not listen to a bunch of unlearned egotistical rants.
Many thanks to the pros for your wisdom and expetise.
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10077
1191. flaboyinga
2:11 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting SEFL:


Sorry this got in here. It was a very late night "debate" and I have no idea why I even responded this AM, other than I was trying to catch up with the blog. I think I'll go for a motorcycle ride!!!


Hey, no apology needed! I was just warning you of what happened to me. I envy your gas mileage on the bike.lol
1190. plylox
2:11 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting Celia1970:



In truth, those in Houston really did not have much choice but to "Hunker down and take it." I am very pleased that those from Galveston were allowed to pass through Houston to evacuate. In a way, Houston did the honorable thing. Those who were out of the way of the storm surge, stayed and let those who needed to leave (Due to being directly on the coast) leave. Houston knew what they were (actually were not) going to do and had a plan.......And its not Honorable to commit suicide and that's what would have happened if the landfall had been slightly west. BTW, due to the AWESOME!!! information on THIS blog, my family and I left Wednesday afternoon, with NO traffic whatsoever! We all need to use every resource available to make decisions in our own lives and not rely on someone else to make decisions for us. Just like being prepared with 7 days(or more) of water and food and batteries and flashlights and not rely on FEMA to feed and clothe us.......
Member Since: August 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 68
1189. EarthwalkUSA
2:05 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
A repeat of information given yesterday:
As stated by many, the clean-up and recovery can be almost as dangerous as the storm. The mask is imperative as not only toxic chemicals and asbestos will invade your lungs and body, but the mold and fungi will attach itself and continue to grow. There are essential oils that can kill it when taken internally, but most people don't know about them and rely on doctors.
The water that people are wading in and allowing their children to "play" in contains parasites and fungi on top of the obvious chemicals and toxins. The smallest cut or hang nail allows entry.
Gas generators have killed through carbon monoxide poisoning and fires. We use a solar generator that doesn't even need that much sun. You can only plug in a few things at a time, but a fridge for 4 hours and a stove for hot water will get you through.
We have a whole house purification system that will continue to pump 40 gallons of pure water even when the pumping stations are turned off. Then we plug in the ait to water generator to make water from the humidity.
Of course, if we had to evacuate we use a portable solar water generator.
All of these are on the web site.
Because we live in Alabama(now)we've been through many hurricanes and have worked 13 along with working ground zero. The most prolonged impact of any of these devastating storms is not the material loss, but the constant reminders of water and wind stealing your memories and terrifying your soul. People and animals need a lot of compassion and love, especially the children.
Thank God for some peace in the tropics.
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
1188. SEFL
1:55 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting flaboyinga:


I got banned for 24 hrs for responding to someone bashing our country. You might get it for responding to this bashing on an individual. Watch your back.


Sorry this got in here. It was a very late night "debate" and I have no idea why I even responded this AM, other than I was trying to catch up with the blog. I think I'll go for a motorcycle ride!!!
1187. LAlurker
1:55 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
1178. ShenValleyFlyFish
"I don't think we should go about evicting folks but a national buy out program based on SLOSH data would be cost effective in the long run, say fair market value + x%. Bet we'd get a bunch of takers in Galviston area right now."

Don't forget to buy out all of the people in this country who live in river valleys, and earthquake fault zone, wild fire areas, and blizzard areas. There are more FEMA disasters declared each year for snowfall than anything else.
Member Since: July 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
1186. Bones429
1:50 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Sorry....miss understood ya....hope ya'll are doing ok.....
1185. Orcasystems
1:49 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


We create zoning restrictions for less pressing reasons. Ever try to build a $50,000 over-engineered house in a McMansion development? Had a personal friend who did. It would have the "House With the Blue Roof".

I don't think we should go about evicting folks but a national buy out program based on SLOSH data would be cost effective in the long run, say fair market value + x%. Bet we'd get a bunch of takers in Galviston area right now.


Simple easy fix to the problem

"Insurance Bureau of Canada reminds B.C. residents to protect their belongings: Overland flooding not covered by insurance"
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1184. Orcasystems
1:47 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Deleted
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1183. Vero1
1:47 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
the live streams from the area on http://projectdisaster.com/ike.htm the reported from abc13 was saying that the survivors from Crystal Beach knew that Ike was a strong CAT2 storm but did not know the surge was going to be as strong as it was, and want the hurricane forcasting to include the CAT of the wind and the CAT of the surge. The example was what we here on the blog have been saying "CAT 2 Hurricane with CAT 4 surge". So, even the survivors are saying the same thing we are without the benifit of this blog.
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
1182. txalwaysprepared
1:47 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
1176. Bones429

I am aware you weren't saying/thinking that. I know the media says (or so I am hearing now. Got power last night) Ike wasn't a major.

We recorded 101 sustained here at my house and 115 gusts. (Two neighbors have weather stations). I am about 20 miles North of Galveston. About 10 miles west Of the Bay.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
1179. SEFL
1:43 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting WetWedder:
And Warren Buffett agrees with me by the way, not with you SEFL.


I am still trying to figure out your point. I know I am not as smart as you but you need to learn how to keep from tripping over your tongue while making your point, whatever it may be.
1178. ShenValleyFlyFish
1:43 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting Michfan:


The only way this will ever be fixed is when insurance companies outright refuse to insure anyone who builds in such an area.


We create zoning restrictions for less pressing reasons. Ever try to build a $50,000 over-engineered house in a McMansion development? Had a personal friend who did. It would have the "House With the Blue Roof".

I don't think we should go about evicting folks but a national buy out program based on SLOSH data would be cost effective in the long run, say fair market value + x%. Bet we'd get a bunch of takers in Galviston area right now.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
1177. stoormfury
1:43 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
anyone knows the where abouts of Weather 456? his imput was missed this hurricane season
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2599
1176. Bones429
1:43 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting txalwaysprepared:


Yeah - try to tell folks around here Ike wasn't a major and you'd probably get knocked out.

Good Morning All. Nice to wake up to power. Trying to keep my emotions in check today.


That wasn't me that said Ike wasn't a major storm... Waht I said was that the media needs to sotp refering to hurricanes as "weak" just because the winds are a little above the next level.. the same should be said for referring to them as major also before they hit someplace....ask Texas, or LA or Haiti or even Cuba if Ike was a "major" storm ....DUH
1175. Beachfoxx
1:42 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Argh! Stop that! No more tropical blobs!
Quoting Orcasystems:
Blog Updated
CMC 00Z.. shows the possibility of 3 new systems.

1 small one starting off South Florida
1 starting in the Bay of Campeche (could be bad)
1 Larger one off the East Coast (Carols)
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29383
1174. NEwxguy
1:42 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
GM,to all,without even looking at satellite loops,I can tell its quiet in the tropics,by the off topic subjects this morning in the blog.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15579
1173. TheMom
1:41 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting Enola:

One I liked the best had instructions for making your own mini campstove out of soda cans - runs on denatured or +90% rubbing alcohol.

Point is, CaptnDan is right. Figure some way to be prepared and to move fast.
When I was in the Army we would do that with our helmuts you take out the helmut liner pour in the alcohol and have a little fire to "cook" your MRE (back before MRE's had heating things and even tabasco) Thanks for making me feel old again.

If you can't get MREs the Dinty Moore shelf meals are easy to find sort of like frozen meals without the need for freezer.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 672
1172. flaboyinga
1:40 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting flaboyinga:


Thank you again for your military service and your community service to our country. Semper Fi!


I want to repeat this to all veterans. They performed the deed or offered to place themselves between our country and those who were against it. Curse the politics if you must, but honor the veterans. (USN 1961-1965)
1171. Halon056
1:40 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting flaboyinga:


Hortense, Ga VFD, 850 ft. W of US 301 on Ga Rt. 32. I thought it was gonna kill me to get it built, but I did and it didn't.lol


Trust me been there done that! Still building our station,(finishing the inside) serve over 10000 residents covering 94 square miles in Putnam county in Northeast Florida...
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 349
1170. LAlurker
1:39 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


One of the lessons to be learned from this tragedy is that it is absolutely wrong to allow construction on barrier islands. Nature has a job for them to do and it is not hold up houses. Had the island been left as intended this story would be different and the degree of damage inland would have been reduced. Yes it is dangerous to live anywhere on a planet such as Earth but there are different degrees of danger and the overdevelopment of our shorelines causes consequences not limited to the ones doing the building. In many ways the "before" picture is the tragic one. The "after" is the inevitable result.

However I have nothing but sympathy for suffering of those people caught up in this tragedy.

Barrier islands are an extremely important part of our defense against inland storm surge. While the wonderful beauty of undisturbed, undeveloped barrier islands is a sight to behold, intelligent constuction on them will help to preserve them. An uninhabited barrier island often gets washed away or cut through in a storm. Because they are uninhabited, and produce no direct tax revenue, our governments do not rebuild them. The natural elements that built them have changed and nature will not reconstruct them on its own. Witness what used to be the Chandeleur island chain off of LA-MS coast. Virtually the only barrier island LA has left is the only inhabited one - Grand Isle. It looks real ugly right now, but development helped hold these seashores together and it is what will preserve them for future generations. Smart construction, and smart evacuation are the proper responses.
Member Since: July 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
1169. jmemon
1:36 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
The remenants of IKE paid even Rochester, NY a visit about 1 AM Monday with 35 mph winds and 50 + mph gusts. Not much rain. The event lasted about 2 hours and was associated with a cold front but very different from a front, the winds swirlled much more. Lots of tree limbs down. A gentler pruning from nature than many received.

Wind speed, storm surge, rainfall amount, tornados, anything with a damage capacity would be good to consider when assessing the destructive potential of a tropical storm. But then it gets down to the accuracy of when and where. And how do you make a simple, informative, timely presentation to the public. Is the SS scale as good as we can do for now? Somehow I think we can do better...

Can the public relate to the term integrated kinetic energy? It is certianly more infomative than two guys names.

And what about the influence political/economic interests on weather data... It will be a sad day when it is raining outside your window and the weatherman says its sunny because its more profitable.
1168. SEFL
1:35 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting NoMeteorsInOlogy:
Beachfoxx

When considered as a percentage of income, the number of people paying the most taxes becomes very different. For example, people earning 56k a year pay almost ten times the income proportion that wealthy wage earners pay. And there is a social security cap that anyone has to pay, being no payments to any income amounts over 90,000.00. Any one of us would love to have that cap around 20k...almost all wage earners in the US actually, or some 90% of the population.

The proportion of taxes to income paid by the wealthy 1% is minuscule compared to what people earning 60k make--by a very real and very wide margin.

Yeah, 500 billionaires pay a larger total dollar amount than the 50,000 wage earners.
And the percent of income they pay as tax is less than 5% of what the proportion of tax debt is is that others pay. Including you, if your family takes in less than 200k a year.

Rush Limbaugh has really impressed people as an economist, military strategist and political expert. But he's not qualified to speak at the kindergarten level about any of those three topics.

he's an entertainer---not a reporter or expert of any kind. He just spouts what the far right tells him to--mostly misleading statistics. Rush is worse than a tree hugger. he's a prescription drug addict pretending to have the moral imperative, boys and girls....and he doesn't in any way, shape or form.



What you say here makes no sense. I'll chalk that up to late night babble. But even if you are going to babble why not try to support your babble with some facts.
1167. stoormfury
1:35 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
strong 850mb vorticity near 9n 23w in association with tropical wave
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2599
1166. txalwaysprepared
1:34 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting clwstmchasr:
1105. Bones429 12:07 PM GMT on September 16, 2008

What about Ike not being a "major" hurricane. So technically we have not had a major hurricane hit the US this year. Tell that to the folks in Texas and Louisiana.


Yeah - try to tell folks around here Ike wasn't a major and you'd probably get knocked out.

Good Morning All. Nice to wake up to power. Trying to keep my emotions in check today.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1642
1165. flaboyinga
1:32 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting Patrap:
I was in the USMC air-wing from 80-86


Thank you again for your military service and your community service to our country. Semper Fi!
1164. Orcasystems
1:31 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting Patrap:
Its a jarhead reunion wu-moment.

Chesty Puller would be Proud right now.


Jarhead = Grunt= Pongo

Pongo = Hairy little creature that digs hole in ground for no apparent reason :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1163. flaboyinga
1:30 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting Halon056:

That station looks vaguely familiar... LOL!


Hortense, Ga VFD, 850 ft. W of US 301 on Ga Rt. 32. I thought it was gonna kill me to get it built, but I did and it didn't.lol
1162. Halon056
1:29 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Nope my bad looks like the station from sand valley
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 349
1161. Patrap
1:28 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Its a jarhead reunion wu-moment.

Chesty Puller would be Proud right now.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
1160. cchsweatherman
1:27 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5163
1159. Michfan
1:27 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


One of the lessons to be learned from this tragedy is that it is absolutely wrong to allow construction on barrier islands. Nature has a job for them to do and it is not hold up houses. Had the island been left as intended this story would be different and the degree of damage inland would have been reduced. Yes it is dangerous to live anywhere on a planet such as Earth but there are different degrees of danger and the overdevelopment of our shorelines causes consequences not limited to the ones doing the building. In many ways the "before" picture is the tragic one. The "after" is the inevitable result.

However I have nothing but sympathy for suffering of those people caught up in this tragedy.


The only way this will ever be fixed is when insurance companies outright refuse to insure anyone who builds in such an area.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1666
1158. EarthwalkUSA
1:27 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting Patrap:
I was in the USMC air-wing from 80-86
There Ya Go! I only did 4 in the USMA. Vietnam.
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
1157. Patrap
1:26 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Thank you and them from us here .

ooh rah..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
1156. flaboyinga
1:25 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
1141. Celia1970 1:08 PM GMT on September 16, 2008

Awesome commentary from someone who was near ground zero. Must read again.
1155. Halon056
1:24 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting flaboyinga:


Good Observation !

That station looks vaguely familiar... LOL!
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 349
1154. Orcasystems
1:24 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Blog Updated
CMC 00Z.. shows the possibility of 3 new systems.

1 small one starting off South Florida
1 starting in the Bay of Campeche (could be bad)
1 Larger one off the East Coast (Carols)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1153. Jollymon57
1:23 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
I did 20 in the AF and now have two sons in the Marines.

Semper Fi bro, and thanks for your service.
1152. Patrap
1:20 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
I was in the USMC air-wing from 80-86
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
1151. ShenValleyFlyFish
1:20 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting MahFL:
One thing that surprised me in the area's where there is total devistation is it's not immediatly obvious there was an extra row or two houses there before, and even the pylons and slabs are gone from the first row or two. For some its the end of there way of life.


One of the lessons to be learned from this tragedy is that it is absolutely wrong to allow construction on barrier islands. Nature has a job for them to do and it is not hold up houses. Had the island been left as intended this story would be different and the degree of damage inland would have been reduced. Yes it is dangerous to live anywhere on a planet such as Earth but there are different degrees of danger and the overdevelopment of our shorelines causes consequences not limited to the ones doing the building. In many ways the "before" picture is the tragic one. The "after" is the inevitable result.

However I have nothing but sympathy for suffering of those people caught up in this tragedy.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
1150. conchygirl
1:18 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
One more down and out. 92 has been removed from WU site. Hoping the train really doesn't start up again.
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
1149. LAlurker
1:16 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting clamshell:
Frankly, I'm not impressed with how they used the "IKE" with Ike. They claimed '20 to 25 feet' and nothing yet suggests any buoy registering any where near that level. The available readings suggest an error of somewhere near 30%.

Coupled with the fact that they erroneously claimed a field that was way to large and it was a fiasco. They need to go back to the drawing board and find out what went wrong.

Even Masters acknowledge that "IKE" was 'experimental'. For some reason, the press seems to want to ignore that important fact.

Additionally, the notion of "If"...the storm had been a Cat 4 or "If" the surge had been 25 feet...if if if...


What stone has your head been under? Had Ike had hit 30 miles west of Galveston instead of dead center, the storm surges in the North part of Galveston Bay (SE Houston) would have rivaled those of Katrina in Bay St. Louis, MS. 25 -30 feet. Galveston would be much worse than it is. Don't depend on buoy readings to report the surge. They have to be in the correct locations and be functioning and reporting properly at the time of maximum surge and wind values. Historically, most or all fail during maximum onset of these storms.
That field that was "too large" flooded 20,000 homes in LA, some of them over 300 miles from Galveston. Significant storm surge and damage in Dauphin Island, and Ft. Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, AL.
Member Since: July 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
1148. Jollymon57
1:14 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Patrap,

Did I read on here that you are/were a Marine fly-boy?
1147. AncloteRiverCat
1:13 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting CaptnDan142:
Not everyone (obviously) takes a pro-active approach to hurricane season. The average person tends to listen to what the TV weatherman and local authorities tell them.


So true, even among so many of the better-educated people I know (medical profession, business owners, etc) Sure they can surf the web, but don't have the drive to seek out more technical information. If it doesn't jump out on a banner, they are unaware. And when you factor in the hectic pace of life - work, get the kids to school & soccer practice etc, there may only be a few opportunities during the day to check in on the local news. If you don't catch the urgency from the TV or radio, or from talk around the water cooler, even a 72 hour warning period can sneak up on someone.

And there are still many people whose *only* resource is the local authorities or media,due to finances or lack of education.

There are too many other reasons people have for not leaving to get into here, but basically I have learned that people need the "visual" before they comprehend. It's not enough to tell people about the surge, it's not even enough to show them pictures of what happened elsewhere, because human nature thrives in a constant state of denial. Warnings have to be very explicit and pertinent to "them."

Some of the cities here in FL have put big signs up in various well-travelled locations - "here is the high water mark for a 20 foot storm surge" kind of thing. When you are sitting at the traffic light looking up at it,
something kind of clicks in your brain.

When local authorities, who get paid to know better, continue to allow people to build in such vulnerable areas, in my mind at least it makes them somewhat responsible in conveying the urgency of the message to the average person.

Just IMHO, YMMV.
Member Since: September 6, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
1146. baywader
1:12 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Patrap after Katrina the clean up was harder on us emotionaly than removing the sheetrock you will also need the mask when your spraying chemicals to stop the mold. learned this lession the hard way. after 5 minutes of spraying had to crawl out the door to fresh air.
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6
1145. Orcasystems
1:11 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Blog Updated
CMC 00Z.. shows the possibility of 3 new systems.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1144. flaboyinga
1:11 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting Michfan:
Its better to overforecast a storm than to undercast it. Hindsight is always 20/20. For predictions to get better more money needs to be poured into the global models to increase their resolution over a longer period of time.


Good Observation !
1143. Bones429
1:10 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting Hhunter:
I gotta say I am spent from that storm..also a little upset how quickly the national media is dropping this story..


That's because the media isn't blaming FEMA and GW for everything that went wrong, but give them time, they will go back to that as soon as someone realizes somnething is not working properly....or the casualty number increase....sadly to say....
1142. myway
1:10 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
Quoting clamshell:
Frankly, I'm not impressed with how they used the "IKE" with Ike. They claimed '20 to 25 feet' and nothing yet suggests any buoy registering any where near that level. The available readings suggest an error of somewhere near 30%.

Coupled with the fact that they erroneously claimed a field that was way to large and it was a fiasco. They need to go back to the drawing board and find out what went wrong.

Even Masters acknowledge that "IKE" was 'experimental'. For some reason, the press seems to want to ignore that important fact.

Additionally, the notion of "If"...the storm had been a Cat 4 or "If" the surge had been 25 feet...if if if...

We are looking at history now and rooting for the people to have survived.

We are looking at the actions of the government and suspecting it is hiding something. How about the governments actions is part of an attempt to protect non-rescue people from getting in the way and slowing down search and rescue that is going on as we squeal about 'conspiracies'.

For example, do we allow the news helicopters to cover Galveston so thickly that they are like mosquitoes and only do something when a mid-air collision occurs. Or, do we allow the press to barge in to a home where the survivors are assailed with questions when their only desire to 'get the hell out'? The press is there to report the havoc, they are there to get what will sell...make money for their employers!!!

Y'all are enraged that those who stayed behind ignored the warnings. Maybe the restrictions are similar to the 'manditory evacuations'...to protect the idiot media from getting hurt or from getting in the way and hampering rescue and clean-up efforts.

Get a grip folks, the survivors will be happy to tell the doe-eyed press all the stories they will ever need to hear, once a simbilance of order is restored to the area.


Well written.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.