Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting TheMom:
Nice to see I'm not the only one that feels this way about the gonzo news coverage and would like to add the faster way besides ratings hits and letters to stations is letters to the companies that sponsor these types of reporters that if you support this type of show then we will find another outlet for our prep and recovery needs purchase. A letter and withdrawal of revenue to an advertiser works a lot faster that waiting for Nelsons to effect change.

Excellent idea. I do not have a TV setup (not good reception and too cheap to get cable). I wonder if folks could start listing the advertisers. I have no problem withdrawing my patronage of their products ( I buy almost nothing from China, for instance)

Good morning all

Two areas of interest today. The first, 92L , is a naked swirl near 18.5N and does not appear to be an immediate threat to develop although further to the SE there are signs that perhaps another low may be trying to form in the convection displaced from 92L.

Of more concern to me now is the surface low in the SW Caribbean near 11N 80.5W as seen on the linked quikscat pass. Convection has been firing there since yesterday and with high pressure aloft something could get going there in the next day or two if it persists. Something to watch close to home

Link

Morning All.

Prayers to those affected in the path of Ike and hope for a speedy recovery.

GFS 7 Days Out. Consecutive runs showing a rather formidable CV Cyclone forming. Looks like our slumber may be short lived, well needed though.

Quoting theshepherd:
1390...GW
Yep...Google Palm Beach County Storm Surge
The Palm Bch Co Emerg Mgmt agency (SAMS)has a surge generator.

Thanks. I did google it and found that site, but my property doesn't come up. Maybe because I am unincorporated...dunno. I just put in an address in town and that was close enough.

Quoting kmanislander:

Of more concern to me now is the surface low in the SW Caribbean near 11N 80.5W as seen on the linked quikscat pass. Convection has been firing there since yesterday and with high pressure aloft something could get going there in the next day or two if it persists. Something to watch close to home

Link

I see what you are talking about (I am learning). Wouldn't that be the Bay of Campeche? I think I remember someone here saying that storms developing there do not have much of a chance getting out to the GOM. Y'all correct me if I am wrong

Quoting KEHCharleston:


I see what you are talking about (I am learning). Wouldn't that be the Bay of Campeche? I think I remember someone here saying that storms developing there do not have much of a chance getting out to the GOM. Y'all correct me if I am wrong

Nope. The Bay of Campeche is on the Western side of the Yucatan peninsula. That's near Costa Rica, in the Southern Carib.

Quoting GaleWeathers:


Thanks. I did google it and found that site, but my property doesn't come up. Maybe because I am unincorporated...dunno. I just put in an address in town and that was close enough.

Go to google earth and find your house, then compare to their image.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning....Hopefully the tropics will remain quiet for while (regardless of the CMC models) as Ike brought out a lot of negative attacks and comments between Blog participants while in the middle of crisis/land falling storm; it was very dissapointing to see........Looking forward to Dr. M's outlook tommorow and to plenty of assistance to the folks impacted by Ike as recovery efforts continue.....

I did see some of the bickering and much of it was about credentials and "meet and greet" comments. The "meet and greet" clogs the blog and diminishes this blog
There are people of every level of skill that visit this blog. I think that the biggest issue is about those claiming to be a meteorologist.
The AMS has an online Glossary that has definitions .Among those definitions is found :
METEOROLOGIST - A person who is professionally employed in the study or practice of meteorology. ....Individuals who have completed the requirements for a college degree in meteorology...

I apologize in advance if this has already been covered, but has anyone ever found out the fate of those people shown on TV that were all partying in some bar on the island that I believe was by the seawall? I believe it was like 20 or so people.

To see the area where Kman is talking about.

(80.5W, 11N... Basically where that huge red blob is.)

Quoting Greyelf:
I apologize in advance if this has already been covered, but has anyone ever found out the fate of those people shown on TV that were all partying in some bar on the island that I believe was by the seawall? I believe it was like 20 or so people.

Yes, i think they all made it out fine, i saw them airlifted by coast guard, the reports came in how they were all drunk and parting, until the realize opps they shouldnt have been there

Quoting Cotillion:


To see the area where Kman is talking about.

(80.5W, 11N... Basically where that huge red blob is.)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 151048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 8N-20N WITH A 1011 MB LOW
ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N53W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
46W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
AND PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. INVERTED-V
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-15N
BETWEEN 79W-84W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N17W 8N30W 8N46W 11N53W 10N62W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 13W-17W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 20W-29W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 43W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ALONG 30N90W 27N93W 26N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM
24N-27N BETWEEN 93W-98W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N74W AND
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 90W-97W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N89W...WHICH DOMINATES MOST OF
THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT LIGHT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD.
ALSO...EXPECT AIRMASS SHOWERS OVER FLORIDA...WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH
SURFACE EASTERLIES DOMINATE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER NORTH COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST VENEZUELA FROM 4N-11N
BETWEEN 72W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...NORTH OF 14N AND EAST OF 67W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 14N77W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
EXCEPT FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SOUTH OF 13N AND EAST OF 70W.
EXPECT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SEE ABOVE. A
1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N74W. A
1010 MB LOW IS FURTHER EAST NEAR 33N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW TO 28N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN
62W-64W. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
NEAR 36N24W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE HIGH TO
25N50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NORTH OF 24N AND WEST OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AROUND 25N47W...WITH ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AROUND 30N24W. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
15N30W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 25N EAST OF
50W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO PROPAGATE WEST WITH CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
AC/MRF

Quoting SFLGirl1:


Yes, i think they all made it out fine, i saw them airlifted by coast guard, the reports came in how they were all drunk and parting, until the realize opps they shouldnt have been there

Thanks for the reply. Shame we had to use valuable resources on them. I thought sure someone was going to say they met with a bad outcome.

Why we post on the blog when the NEW BLOG is up?

Quoting Greyelf:
I apologize in advance if this has already been covered, but has anyone ever found out the fate of those people shown on TV that were all partying in some bar on the island that I believe was by the seawall? I believe it was like 20 or so people.

one of the new stations was there and actually scared the people in the bar to leaving and closing up the bar!!!!shouldn't have been open in the first place...

Wasn't Opal a BOC storm?
Great. All we need is another CV storm. Generally if they do make it this way they're a pain. If I leave the shutters up a little longer it'll stave off any further attacks.
One can only hope. My heart goes out to everyone trying to get past Ike.

HJ