Ike finally dies

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:34 PM GMT on September 14, 2008

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The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Tropical Depression Ike, which is now accelerating northeastward through Illinois. Ike is causing only modest trouble, dumping 2-5 inches of rain along its path and triggering scattered severe thunderstorms. Ike has generated just five tornadoes so far. Two small tornadoes affected Arkansas yesterday, and three were reported in Louisiana on Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio at slight risk today of receiving tornadoes as Ike speeds by.

Ike's damage
In it's wake, Ike has left a Texas-sized disaster. AIR Worldwide, Inc, is estimating that total insured damage in Texas and Louisiana will be $10 billion. An additional $3.4 billion in damage was likely done in the Gulf of Mexico, due to wind and wave damage to oil platforms and the indirect loss of revenue attributable to reductions in oil and gas production. Using the usual rule of thumb that total hurricane damages are double the insured damages, the price tag for Ike will be about $27 billion. That would make Ike the third costliest hurricane in history. Only Hurricane Katrina of 2005 and Hurricane Andrew of 1992 did more damage than Ike has. So far, the death toll from Ike has been remarkably low, considering the level of damage this storm inflicted. Let's hope it stays this way.


Figure 1. Hurricane Ike approaching Galveston Island, as seen by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). The white dot in the eye is the freighter Antalina, which got caught in the storm when its engines failed. A tugboat towed the Antilina safely to port on Saturday, and all 22 crewmen are well and the ship is undamaged. They'll have quite a story to tell (bet they barfed plenty)! Image Copyright ESA [2008], captured and processed by CSTARS University of Miami under license from Eurimage. CSTARS runs jointly with the Canadian Space Agency and the European Space Agency a Hurricane Watch program where they take routine SAR images of tropical storms during hurricane season.

The tropics are quiet
On Monday, for the first time since August 15, we will not have a named storm in the Atlantic. The area of disturbed weather (91L) near the Bahamas that we were watching has been done in by dry air and wind shear. There is another area of disturbed weather (92L) midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands we are watching. This disturbance is under about 25 knots of wind shear, and is suffering from dry air to its west. NHC is giving this system a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. Wind shear is now expected to remain high, above 20 knots, for the next five days, and I don't see much chance of this system developing.

None of the computer models are forecasting development of any tropical storms in the coming week. We have hit a much-appreciated lull in this season's activity, but we're probably not all done yet. I'll discuss the long-term outlook for the coming two weeks in a blog entry on Tuesday.

My next post will be Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Intracostal City Flooded (jlp09550)
This is a helicopter shot from above Maxie's Grocery Store in Intracoastal City. (Vermilion Parish, Louisiana)
Intracostal City Flooded
Expressway Flood (edison)
Slow going prior to complete shut down.Ike gets Indiana too.
Expressway Flood

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366. indianrivguy
4:18 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Quoting melly:
Wille Gary neighbor?.....lol


hahaha...nooo, he lives in Sewar Point
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365. NOLAinNC
4:18 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Texting works where cell signals seem to fail. Just dig around in your menu structure on your cell. Usually under "Messages" you will find a way to txt. Or, seriously, ask a teenager!!
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364. BRMoon
8:18 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
momma4. Amen
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363. JupiterFL
8:11 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting aquak9:
Bkeen12-

tropicalamanda was a self-admitted fake and a waste of blog space...

how odd of you to ask about "her"

"Very Odd"
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362. CybrTeddy
8:18 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Looks like Ike's going to be the 3rd most destructive US Cane, beating out Wilma. Damage estimates are still coming in too, so it might even be the 2nd.
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361. melly
8:17 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Wille Gary neighbor?.....lol
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360. NOLAinNC
4:16 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Again, if you want to help on a ground level, visit Patrap's blog. We have both been around for a while and have posted a bunch of personal info on our blogs and others. He knows the perils of relying on institutional relief - his help will be direct and swiftly delivered. He WILL get it done!
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359. BRMoon
8:15 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
305 StormJunkie. Yes the press is very important in getting the word out. They basically ignored Gustav when New Orleans was OK and the help did not come. Right now SW Louisiana is flooded 30 miles inland from Ike and all we hear about is Texas. But we will keep on helping regardless.
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358. Stormchaser2007
4:17 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
BBL
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357. indianrivguy
4:14 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Quoting melly:
indianriverguy.......You in Jensen?? I stop at Conchy Joes, & Mulligans....Lake Worth here


yes, I am on the river next to River Palm Cottages and Fishcamp. My family homsteaded on Lake Worth, and I sit on the Pioneer associations Board.

Sceerdycat.. howdy neighbor !
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356. momma4
8:15 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Hi all.

Been lurking since Katrina.

The cell phone issue is a real one.

I lost my house during Katrina to a tornado which placed two 100ft pine trees through it.

Immediately following Katrina, when attempting to use my cell phone, the following would come up:

For emergency use only.

We had a signal. Just couldn't use our phones to contact family and such to let them know we were okay.

As far as the "poor" response thus far of Fema and such, well.....

Been there done that.

I live on the Northshore of Lake Ponchartrain.

We didn't get services for a couple of weeks.

No electricity turned back on for 37 days.

I have family in Spring, Texas.

Supposedly did okay.

Patrap.....love your posts. Will be forwarding you some $$ to help the fund.

As great as some of the Agencies were with providing help following Katrina,

The most help we received were from Church groups and individual donations.

The American Red Cross, while here and present,
made the application process for help a nightmare.

My Mom never could reach them (she is from the Westbank of NO).

When she finally did, they denied her any benefits.

I never qualified for a FEMA trailer. Wrong zipcode.

The politics of disaster relief were plain to see in the days following Katrina.

Unfortunate that they are still present today.

My prayers to all of those who have suffered and will continue to suffer for a long time.

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355. melly
8:15 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Have friends on Hutchinson.and Nettles
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354. presslord
4:14 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Enola....exactly....it's the best Return on Investment you're ever gonna find.....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
353. StormJunkie
8:10 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
PensacoloDoug posted earlier that CycloneBoz (guy in Galveston parking garage) got off of the Island and is headed home. We will see video later.

I have no problem with him choosing to put himself in danger and bring us video, but I do wish that folks that do this type of stuff would stick around in the area a little longer and help out. At the very least bring cases of water, etc and leave them on your way out. As one who would do the same thing as Boz, I have thought about this several times.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
352. CosmicEvents
4:14 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wait. Are u saying they sent the SUPPORT PERSONNEL in without any food or water? [turning head sideways to try to see the picture]

YES! This is 500 first responders at the main staging area, in Harris County. Stuck with no food/water.
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351. sceerdycat
4:15 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Too many libations at conchy's??
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350. BRMoon
8:12 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
335 Krl. Yes you are definitely on your own. People must help others. These events bring out the best and worst of mankind.
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349. Stormchaser2007
4:14 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Quoting hamla:
to KRL
I SAW THAT TO AND POSTED IT # 325

HAMLA


Please get rid of the Caps.
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348. melly
8:14 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
sceerdycat.Hill.There is a hill.I must have missed it
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347. Enola
8:13 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting presslord:
I have very little faith in the large relief organizations...and have been involved in this work since 1996....the way to change the world is one person at a time....the cumulative efforts of guys and gals like Pat far out weigh the impact of the big organizations...and do so in a more efficient, cost effective manner...one anecdotal negative acount (which may or may not be true) is rather irrelevant...for every story like that you can tell, I can tell you a thousand stories of people like Pat whose work has positively impacted the lives of millions....fyi...the President of the American Red Cross makes $400,000.00 per year.....Pat makes $00.00 from this...you decide....

I support very few organizations for this reason. Only the Salvation Army, and the DAV. The percentage of my donation that will translate into actual goods for those in need in Pat's hands will be virtually 100%, minus gas and a few incidentals.

Thanks, I'll trust Pat's expertise.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 269
346. hamla
8:13 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
to KRL
I SAW THAT TO AND POSTED IT # 325

HAMLA
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345. billy305
8:12 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Well he was probably around 13...After he admitted his vocabulary and language decreased.
lol
kids these days...
lol..wow
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344. CosmicEvents
4:10 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Quoting KRL:


Why in the world do people keep believing government agencies are all of a sudden going to be able to become magically 100% effective???

It's just never going to happen. And it's not that everything about government is ineffective or incompetent. Many things do work. But when you have disasters of this magnitude to expect the government to do things perfectly is ridiculous. There's no logistically efficient system in the world that works perfectly all the time especially in disasters where everything is in a state of total chaos.

When they say "You're On Your Own!" for 3 days or longer, they mean it. You can not count on the government to wave a magic wand and make all the infrastructure and supply distribution systems that's been destroyed work again instantly. Not gonna happen. Galveston, Houston, Louisiana are going to be screwed up for months from this disaster. Don't expect anything to go right especially in the beginning stages.

That's great, but we're not talking about the general population here. I'm talking about 500 first responders, at the central staging facility, who haven't had food or water delivered. This is out at Tully Stadium. The area is accesible. It's not on the coast.
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343. IMA
3:07 PM CDT on September 14, 2008
313. BRMoon FEMA has been on the ground in TX for days, Gov. Perry requested their assistance well in advance of the storm, days out. I can find the article later, when I'm not so sleepy, that gives the date. That's why TX officials are so disgusted. They did have it all lined up. Granted, there have been problems such as those I mentioned before, that have been beyond FEMA's control, but there have most definitely been some balls, humungous ones, dropped as well.
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342. EarthwalkUSA
8:09 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Does anyone have a contact somewhere to get air drops of food and water? Even the cops are asking for supplies and roads are so impassable. Why can't the USCG do some drops?
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341. sceerdycat
4:11 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Hi Melly-I'm from Jensen...just up the hill from Conchy's!
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340. cctxshirl
3:10 PM CDT on September 14, 2008
Quoting BRMoon:


the reason for this ban is because the police are overtaxed and overworked during this time and have no time to be arresting drunks and respond to domestic violence.


that makes sense.
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339. BahaHurican
4:05 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Unbelievable
.
There's a congressman on channel 11 right now fuming because the first responders don't have food, water, or port-a-potty's. At the main staging center, covering all of SE Texas, there's 500 first responders who don't have water. And Fema or Homeland Security isn't of any help. The congressman is asking the local populace to drop off food and water. Unbelievable!
Wait. Are u saying they sent the SUPPORT PERSONNEL in without any food or water? [turning head sideways to try to see the picture]
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338. Stormchaser2007
4:10 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Quoting billy305:
PERV!!!!
thats just crazy
and she (he) was well respected
why the heck would he impersonate a 15 year old girl
cant he be a regular poster as a guy???
why a girl?


Well he was probably around 13...After he admitted his vocabulary and language decreased.
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337. melly
8:10 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
indianriverguy.......You in Jensen?? I stop at Conchy Joes, & Mulligans....Lake Worth here
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336. sceerdycat
4:09 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Pat and Press--I could never resist the full monty! My check is on the way. Thank you for doing this.
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335. KRL
8:01 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Unbelievable
.
There's a congressman on channel 11 right now fuming because the first responders don't have food, water, or port-a-potty's. At the main staging center, covering all of SE Texas, there's 500 first responders who don't have water. And Fema or Homeland Security isn't of any help. The congressman is asking the local populace to drop off food and water. Unbelievable!


Why in the world do people keep believing government agencies are all of a sudden going to be able to become magically 100% effective???

It's just never going to happen. And it's not that everything about government is ineffective or incompetent. Many things do work. But when you have disasters of this magnitude to expect the government to do things perfectly is ridiculous. There's no logistically efficient system in the world that works perfectly all the time especially in disasters where everything is in a state of total chaos.

When they say "You're On Your Own!" for 3 days or longer, they mean it. You can not count on the government to wave a magic wand and make all the infrastructure and supply distribution systems that's been destroyed work again instantly. Not gonna happen. Galveston, Houston, Louisiana are going to be screwed up for months from this disaster. Don't expect anything to go right especially in the beginning stages.
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334. Enola
8:09 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting BonInBama:


I have been wondering that, too....And did the guy from Santa Fe who spent the night in a Galveston car park garage ever post his video? If so, where is it?

Things are bad down there. It may be a while before we see his vid.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 269
333. billy305
8:07 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


She copied it from a picture hosting site...And all of his posts were deleted. Probably the IP address too.
PERV!!!!
thats just crazy
and she (he) was well respected
why the heck would he impersonate a 15 year old girl
cant he be a regular poster as a guy???
why a girl?
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332. melly
8:08 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Thanks Indianriverguy
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331. oldgrrl
8:06 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Hi Folks,

There is a pretty good set of Photos on BBC.com

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/7615028.stm
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330. presslord
3:59 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
I have very little faith in the large relief organizations...and have been involved in this work since 1996....the way to change the world is one person at a time....the cumulative efforts of guys and gals like Pat far out weigh the impact of the big organizations...and do so in a more efficient, cost effective manner...one anecdotal negative acount (which may or may not be true) is rather irrelevant...for every story like that you can tell, I can tell you a thousand stories of people like Pat whose work has positively impacted the lives of millions....fyi...the President of the American Red Cross makes $400,000.00 per year.....Pat makes $00.00 from this...you decide....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
329. BRMoon
8:03 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Agree. The people are helped the most by local churches and charities. Churches from all over the country sent donations to the local churches in the Baton Rouge area after Katrina, and since most of the churches were shelters for the evacuees, they knew where it should go. My particular church ministered to the needs of people living in cars and vans because they did not want to leave pets behind. We cooked hot meals and volunteers from other states sent in showers and potties for them to us. My church also prepared one meal a day to two other church shelters in our area. Evacuees lived in Sunday school rooms for 6 months after the storm. Local people need to share and help one another. That is the only way to get thru these catastrophes.
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328. Stormchaser2007
4:06 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Quoting billy305:
do you have that post?
and how did he/she get that pic?


She copied it from a picture hosting site...And all of his posts were deleted. Probably the IP address too.
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327. IMA
3:05 PM CDT on September 14, 2008
305. StormJunkie There are several bloggers here who will be in the Houston area themselves or have spouses who will be. I know that they'll be very busy, but I also bet that if one of them could get away they'd be more than willing to verify the trip had been made. I just personally don't think it'd be necessary. I know I wouldn't need any proof!
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326. billy305
8:05 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting BonInBama:


I have been wondering that, too....And did the guy from Santa Fe who spent the night in a Galveston car park garage ever post his video? If so, where is it?
apparently tropicalamanda was a guy
and was faking it the whole time
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325. hamla
8:01 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
to all
they just had a rep.congressman on channel 361 d.tv begging for folks around tully stadium to bring water,non perishable food to over first responders at tully stadium.he said that they have 100 busses sitting there running burning up fuel and not doing nada.fema he said screwed up again and he will get to the bottom of it.
so all those out there fema is gonna messup like katrina
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324. billy305
8:04 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yes Im serous...He/she admitted they were a guy.
do you have that post?
and how did he/she get that pic?
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323. BonInBama
8:04 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting BKeen12:
does anyone know what happened to tropicalamanda, i know she lived in the area where Ike hit


I have been wondering that, too....And did the guy from Santa Fe who spent the night in a Galveston car park garage ever post his video? If so, where is it?
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322. IMA
2:59 PM CDT on September 14, 2008
310. indianrivguy Thanks, I have those saved :) I meant the "street view" ones to which HurricaneParty was referring, but re-read the post and saw that he/she meant they were looking at the street view before and the over-head after. I'm just so dopey today :) Thanks again :)
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321. NOLAinNC
4:02 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
OMG - I posted when I didn't even realize there was a question of Pat's integrity. I back his project 100% and will WUBA mail anyone my personal info if asked.
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320. Stormchaser2007
4:03 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Quoting billy305:
are you serious???


Yes Im serous...He/she admitted they were a guy.
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319. billy305
8:02 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


She was a Guy and a complete fake...A troll who pretended to be a girl.
are you serious???
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318. NOLAinNC
4:00 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Help Pat's efforts. He knows what he is doing. The bottom line is, common sense prevails in these situations, we can't count on bureaucracy for that! Pat will get the relief to those who need it, and he will get it there FAST.
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317. StormJunkie
7:56 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Yea CE, that pretty much ticked me off to, but giving him the benefit of the doubt due to stress. All of this stuff should have been staged pre storm. My Dad worked 18 hour days leading up to Hugo getting this stuff staged in surrounding areas. FEMA is not built for immediate response. They are a post 72hr agency imvho.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
316. IKE
3:00 PM CDT on September 14, 2008
Patrap wouldn't pocket anybodies money. No way....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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