Ike closes in on Galveston

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:12 PM GMT on September 12, 2008

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Hurricane Ike is hours away from landfall on the upper Texas coast, and is already generating huge storm surges in Texas and Lousiana. Although still of Category 2 strength, Ike remains larger and more powerful than Category 5 Katrina or Category 5 Rita. As I discussed in yesterday's blog entry, a good measure of the storm surge potential is Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Ike's Integrated Kinetic Energy has fallen from 149 Terajoules this morning to 124 at 3:30 pm EDT this afternoon. However, this is still larger than the total energy Katrina had at landfall, and Ike's storm surge potential rates a 5.1 on a scale of 1 to 6.


Figure 1. Image of Hurricane Ike from the International Space Station. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast
Ike is attempting to create a new eyewall, and visible satellite loops and Galveston radar suggest the storm is becoming more organized. However, Ike has only a few more hours over water, and there is not time for the hurricane to intensify more than 5-10 mph before landfall. Ike will not inflict extreme wind damage like Katrina's or Rita's. The big story with Ike will be the storm surge.


Figure 2.Current tide levels in Galveston. The green line shows the current storm surge, which was 7.5 feet at 4 pm CDT. The water level stopped rising at 2 pm because the tide began going out. When high tide comes back in at 2 am, there will be a sharp rise in the water level. There is a 2 foot difference between high tide and low tide. Image credit: NOAA TIdes and Currents.

Ike's storm surge
According to the NOAA tide gauges, storm tides are running 6-8 feet above normal along the central Louisiana coast this afternoon. The nola.com web site is reporting that a 9 foot storm surge affected the Industial Canal in New Orleans. Extensive flooding of low lying towns outside the New Orleans levee system is occurring. Surge overtopped a St. Mary Parish levee near the town of Gordy, and a six-foot-wide breach was reported in a non-federal parish levee near the towns of Caernarvon, Scarsdale, White Ditch and Braithwaite.

The fact that Ike's storm surge has reached such high levels 200-300 miles north of the storm is a very bad omen for the upper Texas and western Louisiana coasts. The latest forecast surge values from NOAA:

Shoreline of Galveston Bay... 15 to 22 feet
Bolivar Peninsula... 17 to 20 feet
Galveston Island... ... 14 to 17 feet
Gulf-facing coastline from Sargent to San Luis Pass... 8 to 14 feet

I've given the mistaken impression that the Galveston sea wall will save the city from inundation. That is not the case. The wall merely protects the city from a frontal assault by the storm surge and the 20 foot waves likely to be on top of the surge. Ike will flood the city of Galveston. However, the predicted level of surge will be just beneath the sea wall. If the surge exceeds the 17 foot forecast, it will overtop the sea wall and act like a battering ram against the buildings in Galveston. It is also possible that the sea wall will be destroyed along some sections, allowing the ocean direct access to Galveston.

The situation is also grim for Port Arthur, Texas, on the Louisiana border. The expected storm surge of 15-20 feet will overtop the city's seawall by six feet, resulting in flooding of the city and a number of major oil refineries. Expect a significant tightening of gas supplies in coming months, due to extensive damage to the oil refineries in the Houston and Port Arthur area.

Ike's winds in Houston and inland
Winds in the Houston metro area will increase to tropical storm force--39 mph--early this evening, and remain that strong for about 20 hours. Houston will be on the left (weak) side of Ike, and will miss the storm's strongest winds. Nevertheless, winds of Category 1 hurricane force (75-85 mph) will affect the city for about a 4-hour period in the early morning hours of Saturday. People in well-built homes will suffer only minor damage, but mobile homes and homes not build to code will suffer significant damage. The extremely long duration of the hurricane force winds will cause much greater damage than is typical for a hurricane of this strength.

Winds and damage in Houston will be less than was experienced during Hurricane Alicia of 1983. Ike's damage will cover a much wider area and spread farther inland, due to the large size of the storm. During Alicia, Houston Hobby Airport on the south side of the city recorded top winds of 89 mph, gusting to 99 mph. The strongest winds recorded at Houston International Airport, on the north side of the city, were 51 mph, gusting to 78 mph. Winds from Ike will probably reach maximum sustained speeds of 75-80 mph at Houston Hobby, and 65-70 mph at Houston International Airport.

A good guess on what kind of winds inland areas will experience can be had by using the Inland Wind Model developed by NOAA scientists Mark DeMaria and John Kaplan. This simple model shows the expected winds inland from the coast for the five Category hurricanes moving at different speeds. Plotted below (Figure 3) is the inland wind model plot that best fits the type of winds I expect will penetrate inland from Ike. I think Ike will be a strong Category 2 hurricane moving at about 15 mph at landfall, but the hurricane's strongest winds will penetrate farther inland than is typical due to the huge size of the storm. Thus, I picked a slightly stronger storm with a higher forward speed to base my inland wind estimate on. I expect hurricane force winds of 74 mph will penetrate about 110 miles inland, near the cities of Huntsville and Livingston to the north of Galveston, and not quite reaching Lufkin. We can expect Ike to cause the largest and longest-lived power outage in Texas history, with power knocked out along a 200-mile wide swath in eastern Texas and extreme western Louisiana extending 300 miles inland to I-20. Dallas will be at the fringe of the region of widespread power outages, and should not suffer major power failures.


Figure 3. Inland penetration of tropical storm and hurricane force winds from a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds moving perpendicular to the Gulf Coast at a forward speed of 17 mph. Image credit: NOAA.

For more information
I recommend Texas residents consult NHC's wind probability product to determine their odds of getting hurricane force winds.

For storm surge evacuation zone information, consult the Texas Division of Emergency Management.

For storm surge heights, consult our Storm surge risk for the Texas coast page.

Links to follow
Galveston, TX weather
Port Arthur, TX weather
Houston, TX weather
Tide gauges along the Gulf Coast
Long-range radar out of Galveston, TX
wundermap of weather stations near Ike
Buoy 42035 22 nm SE of Galveston
I-45 traffic cams (bottom 6 on scroll-down menu are Galveston).

Tropical disturbance approaching the central Bahamas
An area of disturbed weather (91L) is located about 400 miles east of the central Bahamas, and is moving west-northwest at 10-15 mph. Satellite loops show that 91L's heavy thunderstorms have continued to increase in areal coverage this afternoon. However, these thunderstorms are not well organized, and there is no evidence of a surface circulation yet on visible satellite imagery.

The disturbance is under about 10 knots of wind shear, and is also having trouble with some dry air to the west. There is an upper-level low pressure just to the west of 91L that is creating shear and pumping dry air into the system, similar to the situation Hanna had to deal with in its formative stages. Shear is expected to remain 10-20 knots though Monday, which may allow some gradual development. None of the models are developing 91L, but the central Bahamas can expect heavy rain and strong gusty winds Saturday. These conditions may spread to the western Bahamas by Sunday and the east coast of Florida by Monday. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is on call to fly into 91L on Sunday, if necessary.

Jeff Masters

()
Hurricane Sky (Beemer)
Sunset Friday evening before arrival of Ike. The sky was incredible. Did my best to capture it. Images processed in Photomatix to make single HDR image
Hurricane Sky

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3694. oregongal
9:52 PM GMT on September 13, 2008


Been lurking here for 2 days now trying to get as much as information as possible. My mother lives in Bacliff/Bayview area. She is one block off of the bay which I believe she called Bayshore. She is down from Noah's Ark Bar. She is back behind the Valero gas station off of Gordy/Lytle Rds. on Walsh street. You can see the bay from her fronch porch though she was one block off.

I haven't slept yet as I have been on every webpage imaginable and KHOU's chatsite. I have tried repeatedly over the last 10 hours or more to find out any information about her house. She is just 10 minutes from the Kemah Boardwalk. By the highway that goes to Home Depot.

She weathered the storm up in the Galleria area and is safe. She has no electricity to find out any information and is looking to me for some answers. She does have cell service when I can actually get through. She has no idea if she can go home or what the status of her house is.

I am desperate to find out more information.

If anyone has some can you please email me at:

naughtynoregon@aol.com

(go ahead and laugh at the address LOL I sell Pure Romance) :)

Thank you so much and I am so thankful Ike didn't pack the punch we thought he would and that most are all safe.

xoxo Stacy in Oregon
3693. cajngranny
5:58 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Quoting WestbankNOLA:


I would suggest www.theadvertiser.com or www.nola.com although I'm not sure how much help they'll be

There are also www.klfy.com and www.katc.com
I've heard from a friend, the water at her home, south of Abbeville, is about 8 inches lower than Rita pushed in.
paula
3692. WmMw
5:56 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Quoting HarvardMBA:
"Tree limbs down, but no major damage"

ROTFLAMO

"Certain Death"

LOL


It seems the people in Galveston who ignored warnings were not as stupid and morally negligent as they were being portrayed here on this blog site.

Is the tendency of media and of this blog site to over-hype hurricane disaster possibilities?

Are a large percentage of the people who populate this blog site disaster-enthusiasts? That is, people who derive excitement and pleasurable adrenaline rushes at the thoughts of massive and extreme disaster situations, even while genuinely bemoaning the loss of life and damages to individuals' property?

Do many people experience a dichotomy of their mental state: on the one hand, deriving hormonal pleasure rushes in their brains at the thoughts of massive disaster, yet, juxtaposed to that, experiencing feelings of remorse for the individual victims? Does the thrill and guilty pleasure derived from the prospects of cataclysmic destruction and disaster become denied and submerged by the conscious mind?

I believe these thoughts are relevant in so far as they may explain biases in expectations for worse-case scenarios.

3691. jaevortex
5:53 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
freaking blog is a cow and the post are being eaten up ugh laksjdlaskjd
3690. EarthwalkUSA
5:38 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Quoting Patrap:
Generator Safety

Gasoline-powered generators can be useful after a storm knocks out power to your home. However, generators also can be deadly if not used properly. Generators emit carbon monoxide, a colorless, odorless gas that can be lethal. People have died or been seriously injured due to fires caused by generators. To stay safe, please follow these tips:

* Always operate a generator outside a home in a ventilated area, well away from any windows, doors, vents and other openings.
* Purchase a carbon monoxide detector and install it in your home.
* Never operate a generator on the balcony of a multi-unit building such as an apartment or condominium.
* Never refuel a generator while it's running or still hot.
* Never overload the generator.
* Never connect a portable generator to the main electrical panel in your home.
* Carefully inspect a generator after long storage periods for broken or missing parts.Wipe off all dust.
*


We have access to and recomend the following instead of gasoline generators:
Solar powered generators
Water from air generators
Full house purification systems
Specific essential oils to: treat water, treat water-borne and airborne disease post-hurricane and flood.
There is a lot to know about the probableillness that many are now going to face because of water/air quality, being barefoot and waist-deep in toxic water, mold in homes partially flooded(mold that then enters your lungs.) Please email if you need help/advice/have questions. NOTE: This is not a commercial:)
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
3689. Tx2Trini
5:26 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Found a Beaumont Blogger.
3688. russm1
5:25 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Quoting fire831rescue:
Just for the record, does anyone on here ever remember me saying I was a professional met? I do believe I said, time after time after time, to follow the NHC and local weather. Never once did I say that what I was saying was the complete truth. I make mistakes just like everyone else. I'm human. For those who want to bash me, fine. Remember, you made the choice. I didn't force you to do anything.


No problems fire. We all appreciate your input on the blog. Just tape a big "L" on your forehead and lets move on to the next storm.
Member Since: August 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 95
3687. SaymoBEEL
5:24 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Let me comment on wrong forecasts. The NHC forecasted Ike hiting Tampa, South Texas, Mid LA and finally where it hit. And..... my point..... they did a good job. So if a person commenting on this blog is less than accurate in a prediction, he's in good company! We discuss all opinions. That helps us figure out whats happening.
3686. bixms
5:18 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Quoting fire831rescue:
I'm not whining. I'm making my point. People on here are trying to make me feel guilty for voicing my opinion. It don't work that way. Someone's always looking for a scapegoat and right now, I seem to be the easy target.


Looks like that "hurricane sandwich" you spoke of a couple of days ago is happening now....(sorry, don't know how to show "link")
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+/48h/3h
Member Since: August 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
3685. sebestt
5:17 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
The only reason I say that is the sound did not occur until I saw lightning. You would hear the sound right after a lightning strike. It was not a constant sound. I just assumed it was the sound effect due to thunder in high speed wind. But I am not an expert on any level.

I might lose electricity again because some heavy bands getting ready to come through again. Got the AC really cranking to get it as cold as possible.
3684. JRRP
5:15 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5998
3683. ChristopherH
5:14 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
I now hypothesis that Ike did the same thing with his surge, as he did with his wind. He was so large, that his winds never were able to spin up, to cat. 3/4/5 strength. I believe the surge may have done the same thing. His circulation was so large, that although his "I.K.E" was higher than K, it was dispersed along a larger area, thus although his "I.K.E" may have been that of a Cat. 4 storm, it was spread over such a large area, that those areas received (it averaged out to) Cat. 2 wind/surge, etc, compared to had Ike been a much more compact storm. I believe the SS scale holds true, still.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
3682. RyanCRG
5:14 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
This is true, if you have ever seen the house of parliament in the Bahamas, they have permanent metal shutters on hinges, and they have had them for generations now. It's a colonial building. If I were to build a house I would consider this, not only are they functional, but done this way they actually don't look bad. My parents built a colonial house like this, but with fake shutters and impact windows.

Quoting Liann:


Once there are ANY perforations in the building (windows, doors, vents, wall failures) the rest of the building is stressed much more highly and progressive failure or collapse is a real imminent danger.

Cleaning up broken glass is the least of your post-storm worries. In prior centuries hinged shutters on every window, ready year-round, were a standard part of the architecture. Surpringly, modern people talk about "putting up" and "taking down" their storm shutters. There is nothing dumber than architecture with fake shutters for looks, but building in 'cane country without permanent storm shutters look pretty ugly. I wouldn't buy one unless the price was discounted to rebate my costs of adding them after sale. NOBODY should buy one. Let the builders know that you don't like the looks of a house with plywood over the glass, or the hassles of putting up and taking down window protection.
3681. duckingfast
5:14 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Quoting sebestt:
On NW side of Houston here. I am on Barker-Cypress Road near West Road. I lost a lot of shingles and satellite dish. Was pretty weird experience because the thunder sounded like a train approaching. ......


That was probably a tornado - they sound just like a train!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
3680. fire831rescue
5:11 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
I'm not whining. I'm making my point. People on here are trying to make me feel guilty for voicing my opinion. It don't work that way. Someone's always looking for a scapegoat and right now, I seem to be the easy target.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 1807
3679. Stormgroupie
5:11 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Corpus Christi was spared. Taking my boards down for the last time this yr hopefully.
3678. atmoaggie
5:11 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Quoting NinetyWt:
Did you see my earlier post re: flood frequency flows for Neches? The 10-year is around 60,000 and the 100-yr around 136,000 cfs IIRC. That should help you watch the gauge, if you know about what frequency will flood the area in question.

No, I didn't see that earlier. That is good info. I wonder how the upstream flow at half of the 10 year rate compares. (when it meets the flow going downstream) Something has to give, right?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
3677. weebswobblz
5:10 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Quoting fire831rescue:
Just for the record, does anyone on here ever remember me saying I was a professional met? I do believe I said, time after time after time, to follow the NHC and local weather. Never once did I say that what I was saying was the complete truth. I make mistakes just like everyone else. I'm human. For those who want to bash me, fine. Remember, you made the choice. I didn't force you to do anything.


Quoting
ChristopherH:



I, for one, am not bashing you. I believe this is a blog, with hobbiest, for the most part, who love to track hurricanes. EVERYBODY is welcome to their own opinions, and allowed to make their own forecasts, as to what THEY think a storm may do. You thought it may go north, and you were not alone. Many PROFESSIONAL mets had some concerns this may go north, including my local met here in Louisiana.

This is a blog, and anybody who would come here to get a weather forecast, to be quite blunt, is riduculous, therefore I don't have an issue seeing people make forecasts that are against the NHC, based on what they feel/see, even if they are wrong. Just my opinion.


Just what I was thinking, you said it better than I could have. Don't sweat it Fire-
3676. sebestt
5:09 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
On NW side of Houston here. I am on Barker-Cypress Road near West Road. I lost a lot of shingles and satellite dish. Was pretty weird experience because the thunder sounded like a train approaching. I am really surprised I have electricity because there is still a lot of rain and wind. I am exhausted because it was almost impossible to sleep with all the noises! I really hope we do not begin to hear really bad news from the people that decided to stay in Galveston. Most people here thought it was going to curve similar to Rita. My guess is next time around more people will definitely evacuate.
3675. Liann
5:08 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Quoting StormSurgeon:


I know, I've never taped windows. If the wind is strong enough to bust windows out then there's a lot more to worry about than broken glass.


Once there are ANY perforations in the building (windows, doors, vents, wall failures) the rest of the building is stressed much more highly and progressive failure or collapse is a real imminent danger.

Cleaning up broken glass is the least of your post-storm worries. In prior centuries hinged shutters on every window, ready year-round, were a standard part of the architecture. Surpringly, modern people talk about "putting up" and "taking down" their storm shutters. There is nothing dumber than architecture with fake shutters for looks, but building in 'cane country without permanent storm shutters look pretty ugly. I wouldn't buy one unless the price was discounted to rebate my costs of adding them after sale. NOBODY should buy one. Let the builders know that you don't like the looks of a house with plywood over the glass, or the hassles of putting up and taking down window protection.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
3674. Zaphod
5:08 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Fortunately the estimates were high, which in my view is a good thing. For industrial and market predictions, a best-guess median estimate is desirable, but where lives are on the line conservative evacs must be the rule. As long as we have inadequate prediction tools we have to assume the worst. Ike alllmmmooost had superb conditions, but dry air and a bit of shear made the difference between a Cat 4/5 storm and a Cat 1/2 storm over just the last 60 hours before landfall.

Now we're to the point of the storm where it turns out that the metropolitan area didn't fare as badly as expected, and media focus will shift to business-as-usual as everybody signs with relief.

Of course the rural areas between Galveston and S. LA will turn out to have fared poorly (again) and nobody will really notice. The damage estimates will quietly trend upwards as infrastructure repair teams move into the less urban areas. Hopefully the surge was just low enough to spare the oil refineries, as that is important to us all.

On the plus side, the notion of having mandatory evac for only flooding areas worked pretty well, esp since the flooding was lower than anticipated. One the minus side, too many people stayed, and more will next time.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 3239
3673. SEFL
5:08 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Quoting fire831rescue:
Just for the record, does anyone on here ever remember me saying I was a professional met? I do believe I said, time after time after time, to follow the NHC and local weather. Never once did I say that what I was saying was the complete truth. I make mistakes just like everyone else. I'm human. For those who want to bash me, fine. Remember, you made the choice. I didn't force you to do anything.


I forgive you!!!...now quit whining, please.
3672. Patrap
5:07 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Thanx for your input as well ATM..

A lot of folks are in Shock in Many areas, as this Event struck across a wide area.

Many Have been affected.

Folks need to get ready for the Darkness tonight and be a good neighbor to one another as Night will come and the Gravity of this Event sinks in.

Many woes are still to come.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
3671. MikesterMike
5:07 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
For those in Brazosport, the local paper has set up a blog site to document goings on in Surfside, Clute & LJ.
Link

Lots of wind damage, most f it seems simi,ar to Hurricane Alicia.
Member Since: April 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
3670. SaymoBEEL
5:06 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Quoting ChristopherH:


I, for one, am not bashing you. I believe this is a blog, with hobbiest, for the most part, who love to track hurricanes. EVERYBODY is welcome to their own opinions, and allowed to make their own forecasts, as to what THEY think a storm may do. You thought it may go north, and you were not alone. Many PROFESSIONAL mets had some concerns this may go north, including my local met here in Louisiana.

This is a blog, and anybody who would come here to get a weather forecast, to be quite blunt, is riduculous, therefore I don't have an issue seeing people make forecasts that are against the NHC, based on what they feel/see, even if they are wrong. Just my opinion.


I agree 100%
3669. NinetyWt
5:05 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Quoting atmoaggie:
This is looking up a little, though. Beaumont Emptyprise report that Downtown Beaumont doesn't have water in the streets, Nedelnad's Police Chief went driving (aka not flooded), and Port Neches had water in the park (not an all that uncommon occurrence).

Link
Did you see my earlier post re: flood frequency flows for Neches? The 10-year is around 60,000 and the 100-yr around 136,000 cfs IIRC. That should help you watch the gauge, if you know about what frequency will flood the area in question.
3668. Patrap
5:04 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Lots of flooding issues on the North Shore and other areas in Se. La.

nola.com for Parish by Parish info Link


Tropical storm warning dropped, but wind advisory, coastal flood warning still in effect
A wind advisory remains in effect for southeast Louisiana, including the New Orleans area, Lake Pontchartrain and coastal waters, as sustained winds of up to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will continue through 7 p.m.
Submit your Hurricane Ike storm photos
# Plaquemines deputy injured in rescue attempt 11:37 a.m. CT
# Floodgates still shut at Harvey Canal, 17th Street, London Avenue canals 11:14 a.m. CT
# Lafitte, Terrebonne Parish flooded by Ike 10:47 a.m. CT

• More Hurricane Ike news

Orange Texas and Bridge City, near the La Border have residents in Need of rooftop rescues as reported by CNN
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
3667. SWFLDigTek
5:03 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Quoting redavni:
I can't wait until the crisis addicts, doom sayers, and other various ambulance chasers around here head out so we can get back to talking about the weather. Yesterday you all scream everyone is going to die. Today you scream about 911 calls from survivors. What is it going to be tommorrow? Lamenting the fact that Burger King is still closed? Oh the horror!


Wasn't it you who was talking about the CDC lab being breached and releasing 'something far worse than IKE'?

People will post on what interests them, deal with it or shut off your machine and enjoy the weekend.
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 117 Comments: 398
3666. AirTrafficMan
5:02 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Thanks for all your tips and links Patrap. It is important if you are going to generate safely to use generator safety.

And Redavni...my Burger King is open.
Member Since: September 8, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 187
3665. ChristopherH
5:02 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Quoting fire831rescue:
Just for the record, does anyone on here ever remember me saying I was a professional met? I do believe I said, time after time after time, to follow the NHC and local weather. Never once did I say that what I was saying was the complete truth. I make mistakes just like everyone else. I'm human. For those who want to bash me, fine. Remember, you made the choice. I didn't force you to do anything.


I, for one, am not bashing you. I believe this is a blog, with hobbiest, for the most part, who love to track hurricanes. EVERYBODY is welcome to their own opinions, and allowed to make their own forecasts, as to what THEY think a storm may do. You thought it may go north, and you were not alone. Many PROFESSIONAL mets had some concerns this may go north, including my local met here in Louisiana.

This is a blog, and anybody who would come here to get a weather forecast, to be quite blunt, is riduculous, therefore I don't have an issue seeing people make forecasts that are against the NHC, based on what they feel/see, even if they are wrong. Just my opinion.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
3664. NinetyWt
5:02 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Quoting BrittneyMarie:
My husband works on an oil rig that they moved up the canals and secured somewhere near Abbeville, La. Does anyone know of where I can get any kind of storm report for this area? I have been worried sick and unable to find out anything!
Try www.theoildrum.com . You may have to dig around the site.
3663. bjdsrq
4:57 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Quoting redavni:
I can't wait until the crisis addicts, doom sayers, and other various ambulance chasers around here head out so we can get back to talking about the weather. Yesterday you all scream everyone is going to die. Today you scream about 911 calls from survivors. What is it going to be tommorrow? Lamenting the fact that Burger King is still closed? Oh the horror!


Well, the Hooters on the Galveston pier is now sitting in the road if that raises the bar.
Member Since: July 26, 2003 Posts: 3 Comments: 428
3662. Patrap
4:56 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Generator Safety

Gasoline-powered generators can be useful after a storm knocks out power to your home. However, generators also can be deadly if not used properly. Generators emit carbon monoxide, a colorless, odorless gas that can be lethal. People have died or been seriously injured due to fires caused by generators. To stay safe, please follow these tips:

* Always operate a generator outside a home in a ventilated area, well away from any windows, doors, vents and other openings.
* Purchase a carbon monoxide detector and install it in your home.
* Never operate a generator on the balcony of a multi-unit building such as an apartment or condominium.
* Never refuel a generator while it's running or still hot.
* Never overload the generator.
* Never connect a portable generator to the main electrical panel in your home.
* Carefully inspect a generator after long storage periods for broken or missing parts.Wipe off all dust.
* Store the generator in a dry, ventilated area with its fuel tank empty.
* Before storing, clean the generator by removing all oil and dirt.
* Don't store the generator near fuel supplies.
* Don't store the generator near appliances such as water heaters or pumps, especially if they're gas powered.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
3660. Enola
4:56 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Quoting W4JWM:
IF YOU NEED TO MAKE EMERGENCY CONTACT to authorities in the effected area and UNABLE to make contact any other way to check on the health and welfare of a party that you fear may be in very real danger, and who did not evacuate, I will VIA Amateur radio make contact with authorities about that person to be checked on.. Please remember that if authorities have already been contacted - please do not repeat the request. 6000 requests have already been made and in the cue.

I will need to have the following information..
Full Name, description, last known location with address, car type, any other type of contact info.

I will be unable to provide you with a reply or conformation from that party as it goes through multiable agencies.

Please e-mail your request to w4jwm@arrl.net
--
Jim Menefee - W4JWM
James W. Menefee, Jr. P.A.
F.C.C. Licensed Engineer

And, you are also a hero in all of this...bless you.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 269
3659. atmoaggie
4:55 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
This is looking up a little, though. Beaumont Emptyprise report that Downtown Beaumont doesn't have water in the streets, Nedelnad's Police Chief went driving (aka not flooded), and Port Neches had water in the park (not an all that uncommon occurrence).

Link
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
3658. StormSurgeon
4:54 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Quoting FLdewey:


Right, but what everybody obviously doesn't know is it doesn't do that either. It serves no purpose other than to waste time and make clean up more difficult. :-)



I know, I've never taped windows. If the wind is strong enough to bust windows out then there's a lot more to worry about than broken glass.
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
3657. atmoaggie
4:52 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Man, the Neches still hasn't peaked. Getting to about as high as I might have expected, though. The wrong-damn-way flow might have peaked.





From Link
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
3656. Skyepony (Mod)
4:52 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
NOLA is fine..southwest of there faired worse..

I'm really suprised how much SWLA was taken off gaurd here. Night before last I posted sea hieght nowcast & forecasts, along with tide forecasts, stating this looked like flooding for SWLA should be worse than Rita.

BATON ROUGE -- State officials said Saturday that the Jefferson Parish town of Lafitte was under six feet of water because of flooding driven by Hurricane Ike.

Chris Macaluso, spokesman for the Office of Coastal Protection and Restoration, said the flooding was due to "overtopping'' of the levee system, which is not part of the federal levees that protect other areas of the New Orleans area.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 179 Comments: 38333
3655. ChristopherH
4:52 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Quoting 996tt:
High cat 2 with high cat 2 storm surge. No need to change SS scale.

You know, I have to agree. Looks like there is quite a bit of damage, and I'm sure we'll see more, throughout the day, as pictures, and video come in, but thus far, it doesn't look anywhere near as bad as it was thought.

Concern I now have, is with all of the "certain death" comments, and hype of this being a Cat. 4 surge, etc., it actually may cause even more not to leave Galveston, and other areas, when the next storm threatens. MSNBC interviewed a few people this morning, who said they would still stay, if given the chance to do it over again.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
3653. ST6CaptChaos
4:51 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Quoting fire831rescue:


I don't know whether to comment back or ignore you and report you to admin....


do what you gotta do brother, I was so sick of hearing you all week now we have what we have here... devestation... prayers out to all the people that was in the way of this catastrophe, I hope this shows that this blog is what it is a blog... listen to the professionals.
3652. RyanCRG
4:51 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
The 1900 Galveston Hurricane Memorial was all but destroyed...
3651. nuggsgalore
4:50 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Quoting W4JWM:
IF YOU NEED TO MAKE EMERGENCY CONTACT to authorities in the effected area and UNABLE to make contact any other way to check on the health and welfare of a party that you fear may be in very real danger, and who did not evacuate, I will VIA Amateur radio make contact with authorities about that person to be checked on.. Please remember that if authorities have already been contacted - please do not repeat the request. 6000 requests have already been made and in the cue.

I will need to have the following information..
Full Name, description, last known location with address, car type, any other type of contact info.

I will be unable to provide you with a reply or conformation from that party as it goes through multiable agencies.

Please e-mail your request to w4jwm@arrl.net
--
Jim Menefee - W4JWM
James W. Menefee, Jr. P.A.
F.C.C. Licensed Engineer


You sir, are a mensch. Thank you.
3650. azduck
4:50 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
The jog to the north saved Galveston & Texas City from the highest surges - but the Bolivar Peninsula to High Island really took it on the chin. Hopefully the vast majority of people in that extremely vulnerable area evacuated. Based on the reports from Galveston and Sabine Pass, a 20 foot surge at High Island would be consistent with the models.

With luck there will not be severe loss of life from Ike - but the Galveston mayor should still be recalled.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 57
3648. tampagirl
4:49 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Does anyone know how those folks at the bar faired?
3647. 996tt
4:47 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
High cat 2 with high cat 2 storm surge. No need to change SS scale.
Member Since: September 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
3646. duranta
4:47 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Evacuation for the working class not always that easy. People in Louisiana spent 100's, if not thousands of dollars each, evacuating for Gustave. The only reimbursement is from FEMA if your home is uninhabitable. Also a modest amount of food stamps from the state of Louisiana. Many family budgets are simply busted and rent and light bills now aren't getting paid, and will be paid late.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 41
3644. powerofH2
4:46 PM GMT on September 13, 2008
Port Arthur levee's held up.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.