Ike's storm surge an extreme danger to Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:06 PM GMT on September 11, 2008

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Hurricane Ike remains a huge a dangerous Category 2 hurricane, and has changed little since this morning. Ike's central pressure continues to hold steady at 950 mb, as measured by the Hurricane Hunters at 3:14 pm EDT. Ike's tiny 9-mile wide eye appears to be collapsing, which will allow a new eyewall of much larger-diameter to form. This event should allow Ike to start intensifying tonight. The latest Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential image shows that the center of Ike has just finished crossing a cold eddy in the Gulf of Mexico waters, and is now beginning to pass along the north side of a warm eddy. This change in oceanic heat should also help allow Ike to intensify tonight. The eddy is not ideally positioned, though, for rapid intensification to occur. The eddy is on the left (weak) side of the hurricane, where wind speeds are slower since the forward motion of the storm subtracts from the wind speed of the circulation. These lower-speed winds will be able to evaporate less moisture from the warm ocean than if the eddy were positioned on Ike's right side. Oceanic heat content remains moderately high after Ike crosses the eddy, which should allow some modest strengthening to continue. Wind shear of 10-15 knots and dry air on Ike's west side is hampering Ike slightly, as evidenced by the lack of upper-level outflow on the storm's west side and lack of heavy thunderstorm activity. Shear is expected to decrease to 5 knots by the time of landfall Saturday morning, and I expect Ike will be maintaining its strength or slowly intensifying right up until landfall. Ike will probably be at the top end of Category 2 strength at landfall, with 110 mph winds.

Comparisons to Carla and Katrina
Ike is larger than Katrina was, both in its radius of tropical storm force winds--275 miles--and in it radius of hurricane force winds--115 miles. For comparison, Katrina's tropical storm and hurricane force winds extended out 230 and 105 miles, respectively. Ike's surge will probably rival the massive storm surge of Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city. Ike's maximum surge is not likely to reach the extreme values above 20 feet seen in Hurricane Carla, though.


Figure 1. Experimental storm surge heights for Ike. There is a 10% chance the storm surge from Ike will exceed these values. Data courtesy of NOAA.

The total energy of Ike
The amount of water Ike has put in motion is about 10% greater than what Katrina did, and thus we can expect Ike's storm surge damage will be similar to or greater than Katrina's. The way we can estimate this damage potential is to compute the total energy of Ike's surface winds (kinetic energy). To do this, we must look at how strong the winds are, and factor in the areal coverage of these winds. Thus, we compute the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) by squaring the velocity of the wind and summing over all regions of the hurricane with tropical storm force winds or higher. This "Integrated Kinetic Energy" was recently proposed by Dr. Mark Powell of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division as a better measure of the destructive power of a hurricane's storm surge than the usual Category 1-5 Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, Hurricane Katrina hit Mississippi as a strong Category 3 hurricane, yet its storm surge was more characteristic of a Category 5 storm. Dr. Powell came up with a new scale to rate potential storm surge damage based on IKE (not to be confused with Hurricane Ike!) The new scale ranges from 1-6. Katrina and Wilma at their peaks both earned a 5.1 on this scale (Figure 2). At 12:30pm EDT today, Ike earned a 5.2 on this scale, the second highest kinetic energy of any Atlantic storm in the past 40 years. Hurricane Isabel of 2003 had the highest. Note that the figures I quoted in this morning's blog saying Ike had an IKE of 180, 50% higher than Katrina's, were found to be in error due to some bad data from one of the Hurricane Hunter observations (the IKE is an experimental product, after all). Thus, this morning's IKE was actually a little lower than Katrina's.


Figure 2. Comparison of the potential damage from storm surge and waves on a scale of 1 to 6 (left scale, and corresponding to little "x" marks on the plot), as a function of total Integrated Kinetic Energy in Tera-joules (IKE, on the right scale, corresponding to the little squares on the plot). Hurricane Ike at 12:30pm EDT had an IKE of 134, 10% higher than the value of 122 Katrina had at landfall in Mississippi. Ike's amount of wind energy can generate storm surge and wave damage rated at 5.2 on a scale of 1 to 6, worse than Katrina's 5.1 at landfall. Image credit:"Tropical Cyclone Destructive Potential by Integrated Kinetic Energy" by Mark Powell and Timothy Reinhold.

Ike's waves
All this energy is also going into the waves in the Gulf of Mexico, and the offshore oil rigs can expect to receive a terrific battering. At 1:50pm CDT, waves at the buoy 42001 180nm south of Louisiana peaked at 30 feet. NHC is predicting Ike's waves will peak at 50 feet (15 meters) in the northern Gulf on Friday. For comparison, Hurricane Ivan of 2004 generated 27 meter (89 foot) high waves in the Gulf of Mexico. The oil companies spent hundreds of millions of dollars upgrading their oil rigs in the Gulf in the wake of the destruction wrought by Ivan and Katrina and Rita, and I'm not anticipating severe damage to the rigs from Ike's 50-foot waves.

Ike's storm surge
According to the NOAA tide gauges, the storm tides along the Mississippi coast have peaked at 4 feet above normal, and are currently running 5 feet above normal on the east side of New Orleans at Shell Beach in Lake Borgne. A storm surge of 5.9 feet was observed in New Orleans' Industrial Canal at 10:45 am CDT, and 5.75 feet in Waveland, Mississippi. Coastal Alabama is reporting a 4-6 foot storm surge, with 10-15 foot waves. Considering the center of Ike is over 250 miles south of these locations, it is not hard to imagine that Texas will get a 15-20 foot storm surge, even if Ike does not strengthen.

Ike will probably inundate a 250-mile stretch of Texas coast from Port O'Connor to the Louisiana border with a 10-15 foot storm surge. This will occur even if Ike is a Category 1 storm at landfall. If Ike is a Category 3+ hurricane at landfall, surges of 20+ feet are possible. The latest experimental storm surge forecast From NOAA's SLOSH model (Figure 1) shows a 10% chance that Ike's storm surge will exceed 18-21 feet at Galveston. The Galveston sea wall is 17 feet high, so it may get overtopped. At noon today, a mandatory evacuation of the entire island was ordered in case this worst-case scenario is realized. The official NHC forecast is calling for maximum storm surge heights of 20 feet.

What should Texas residents do?
We must assume Ike will intensify to a Category 3 hurricane by landfall, which would likely do $20-$30 billion in damage. Ike's storm surge is going to be affect a huge area and be tremendously destructive. The latest Hurricane Local Statement from the Galveston National Weather Service office puts things in pretty stark perspective:

All neighborhoods... and possibly entire coastal communities... will be inundated during high tide. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face certain death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere. Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads will be swamped... some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property damage... with massive destruction of homes... including those of block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to repair.

I recommend Texas residents consult NHC's wind probability product to determine their odds of getting hurricane force winds.

For storm surge evacuation zone information, consult the Texas Division of Emergency Management.

For storm surge heights, consult our Storm surge risk for the Texas coast page.

Links to follow
Galveston, TX weather

Tide gauges along the Gulf Coast

Mid Gulf Buoy 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA (42001)

Tropical disturbance 91L north of Puerto Rico
An area of disturbed weather (91L) has developed a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Satellite loops show that 91L has a very small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but does have a circulation at middle levels of the atmosphere. A surface circulation is not apparent, but the mid-level spin could work its way down to the surface over the next day or two. The disturbance in under about 20 knots of wind shear, and is also having trouble with some dry air to the west. Shear is expected to remain 10-20 knots though Saturday, then increase to 25 knots. We may expect some slow development until Saturday, when wind shear should be too high to allow further development. None of the models are developing 91L. By Tuesday, as 91L will be approaching the east coast of Florida, shear is expected to decline to 15 knots, and some additional development may be possible, if the disturbance holds together that long.

I'll have an update tonight if there's a significant change in Ike.

Jeff Masters

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2096. ThePatient
7:42 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting HiWay:



I think after a storm like this we need to quit basing everything off of the SS scale, cat 1 and cat 2 are not going to do this storm justice when we mark it down in the annals of history.


I'll bite on this one.

I had hoped we could learn that lesson 3 years ago or more.

1. Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal.
2.Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal.
3.Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal.
4. Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal.
5. Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal.

And from the latest advisory:

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FEET COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS.

Quoting Dr. M:
The amount of water Ike has put in motion is about 10% greater than what Katrina did, and thus we can expect Ike's storm surge damage will be similar to or greater than Katrina's.


And this is a Category 2, some would even have them calling it a Category 1 or a really large tropical storm.

Surge is built into the scale, however...

Quoting NHC:
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane's present intensity. This is used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane landfall. Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale, as storm surge values are highly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf and the shape of the coastline, in the landfall region.


... size is not, and too much weight is given to wind.

Sadly, many people make decisions on the category and windspeed of a hurricane. Today they were repeatedly trying to explain on TWC that the difference between a "strong Cat 2 and a weak Cat 3 was nothing". Sigh.

2085. AtmosphericWrath... lol.
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2095. drj27
7:36 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
anyone think we will get any of ikes feeder bands in destin/fwb just asking
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2094. silverstripes
12:37 AM PDT on September 12, 2008
Winds at the shell station are nearing 90 mph already. The anemometer is at 122m though but you get the point. This station is 100 miles from the center.

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 77.7 kts Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.22 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.23 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.6 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.4 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 85.3 °F

Link
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 595
2093. AtmosphericWrath
7:41 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting txcgal:
2085.

I thought we were supposed to "trust" the Gorton's Fishermen... :-)

Lol! Thanks for the laugh!


We can for high quality fish sticks!
But we can't for steering Hurricanes!

You're welcome LOL
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2092. Nutzabout3
7:41 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting AtmosphericWrath:
No wonder why Ike has moved so erratically!
Look who's steering him...

The Gorton's Fisherman!


LOL --

Or the Tidy Bowl Man...

8o)
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2091. txcgal
7:40 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
2085.

I thought we were supposed to "trust" the Gorton's Fishermen... :-)

Lol! Thanks for the laugh!
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2090. Canenut
7:39 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Vortex fix has it right back on the magic forecast line, 15 miles NW of the previous fix.
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2089. TxKeef
2:39 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
Quoting pilatus:
See the latest HH center fix. The inner eye feature has totally collapsed and has been replaced by a wider center feature.


link please
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2088. EarthwalkUSA
7:36 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Once the eye hits land Ike will speed up(and the water will continue). The troughs and fronts to the North and East will suck him up at a rapid pace. Look for 12-24 hours of "conditions", continued residual and collateral damage and flooding from the NE quadrant. As a tropical storm, Ike will have enough kinetic energy to continue all the way to the Great Lakes.
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2087. StormJunkie
7:38 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
lol Tulsa, I have had to tell folks several time to please put the NAM back in the closet until Nov 1
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16859
2086. KarenRei
7:34 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting Brillig:


Looking at it another way, they've been within 1 mb of 956 since at least 2:25Z. That's nearly 5 hours.


I look at it as a slightly noisy, slow pressure rise, followed by a single significant downward datapoint that could just be an unusually noisy datapoint, or the beginning of an actual drop. Unfortunately, one datapoint does not a trend make, so there's no saying at this point which is which.

Bye, KarenRei!
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 940
2085. AtmosphericWrath
7:25 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
No wonder why Ike has moved so erratically!
Look who's steering him...

The Gorton's Fisherman!
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2084. lopaka001
3:37 AM EDT on September 12, 2008
Since everyone is talking about their credentials let me say I am not a MET, but I drink a lot and can throw darts with the best of them..
Can I have a secret decoder ring now?
;=~
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2083. TulsaMeteorologist
7:35 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting StormJunkie:
I guess I confused my point and myself Tulsa, I considered the data entry part as the "beginning" of running. So I can see where this would not really be accurate if the NCEP does not consider the data entry to be "running"



OK if you use that definition, you'd be correct. We were just talking about 2 different things. My main point is that the more sophisticated models do not have output available yet from the 06Z run...the WRF/NAM outpus is probably becoming available as we speak, but I don't trust it a bit with tropical systems anyway.
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2082. Canenut
7:36 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 07:33Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2008
Storm Name: Ike (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 30
Observation Number: 22
A. Time of Center Fix: 12th day of the month at 7:14:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°33'N 91°17'W (26.55N 91.2833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 248 miles (399 km) to the SSW (197°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,728m (8,950ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 93kts (~ 107.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the NNW/N (348°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 107° at 93kts (From the ESE at ~ 107.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 80 nautical miles (92 statute miles) to the N (355°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 955mb (28.20 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 108kts (~ 124.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 6:07:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
PSBL PARTIAL EYEWALL E - S, 20 NM DIAM

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2081. kingy
7:29 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
the surge will probably over the top the galveston sea wall and scour the place. But remember that a massive funnel of water will be forced into the houston bay area and will also flood galveston from behind. Galveston will take months to recover from this, it will be like katrina....cars floating round smashing houses. Property full of slime and mud. No one has mentioned the chemical plants littered along the coasts - they will be spewing toxins into the water too. This will be a real mess. Fridays roads in houston will reach gridlock and then the weather will come down on them.
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2080. Nutzabout3
7:32 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Ike getting nasty looking the last few frames... seems to be getting a little stronger IMO.

Kinda looks like the batman signal - lol.

Link
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2079. TxMarc
7:29 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting KRL:
Houston Mayor Tells Public Don't Evacuate

"Fearing millions of people could get trapped in mass traffic jams on the highways, officials in Houston have decided to stare Ike down instead of telling people to flee."

All I can say is OMG.



... Houston is massive and the vast majority of "Houston" faces no threat from the storm surge at all..

IT'S THE RIGHT MOVE...
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2078. StormJunkie
7:33 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
I guess I confused my point and myself Tulsa, I considered the data entry part as the "beginning" of running. So I can see where this would not really be accurate if the NCEP does not consider the data entry to be "running"
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16859
2077. TulsaMeteorologist
7:33 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting StormJunkie:

They are actually a completely different type of model and use much less/ previous run processed data to run. Don't think it has anything to graphics. Tulsa?



I think this is correct.
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2076. Canenut
7:32 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
SJ, yeah the KHOU guy is not being responsible now is he....
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2075. winterlover73
7:14 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Eye or no eye visible to us normal people--- the point is IKE has 100MPH sustained winds stretched out for quite a ways. it's rotating believe me. After being as strong as it was coming across Cuba and then getting weaker at least as far as the Saffir scale goes,, doesn't mean jack when the actual energy in the storm has grown twofold. Ike has been pushing water westward since-- a long time ago,, and will only end at the W-NW coast of the GOM. . The GOM doesn't help as it's one big round swimming pool concentrating the energy of the moving system into the Texas coast. IN a nut-- nature's wrath unleashed. It all comes down to energy being unleashed where the ocean ends PERIOD.
Thoughts and prayers to all involved.
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2074. Brillig
7:28 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting OUFan919:
Another dropsonde reporting a pressure of 955mb, down 2mb from the recent vortex message.


Looking at it another way, they've been within 1 mb of 956 since at least 2:25Z. That's nearly 5 hours.
Member Since: June 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 408
2073. Kjsasey
2:32 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
Quoting PensacolaNewbie:
djti-



Where is stormW? I'm tending to lean toward your direction, and want to trust you, but I know you've said alot of other things that the majority don't agree with you on. So my question is why should I trust you? Why should I believe that you know what you are talking about? Remember that I'm new to this and claim no knowledge or understanding to anything pertaining to hurricanes, except the damage they are capable of causing(I went through Ivan). This is in no way an attack on you, I'm just looking for qualifications.


Probably sleeping like I should be! LOL!
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2072. StormJunkie
7:32 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting washingaway:
I think the early cycles are just spit out without graphics, coordinates only. Not sure though.

They are actually a completely different type of model and use much less/ previous run processed data to run. Don't think it has anything to graphics. Tulsa?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16859
2071. CirrusCloudWalker
2:30 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
Quoting KRL:
Houston Mayor Tells Public Don't Evacuate

"Fearing millions of people could get trapped in mass traffic jams on the highways, officials in Houston have decided to stare Ike down instead of telling people to flee."

All I can say is OMG.


Where did you get that information? I watched him in a news conference today and he was evacuating people from the more critical areas of Houston.
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2070. OUFan919
7:30 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Yeah by looking at the HH high density data, the inner eyewall looks like it has completely collapse and the outer wind max/eyewall should start contracting and the winds should pick up. Out there I have seen the highest winds in dropsonde and flight level since Ike has left Cuba tonight.
Member Since: July 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 329
2069. Kjsasey
2:28 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
I think I am going to share the little tidbit about benadryl and dogs with the neighbor in the morning! Here dogs have been non stop since 10pm last night! The pressure is dropping here and my ears are a poppin!!
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2068. TulsaMeteorologist
7:31 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting StormJunkie:
All right Tulsa, you are the met, I'll take your word for it. Either way data entry (what I would consider running) starts at 06z correct?



Yes...that is why the models cannot run any earlier than they do...they need the data first. Since BAMM doesn't need much data, you may be right about it running closer to right at 06Z.
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2067. StormJunkie
7:29 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
KHOU is really talking a lot about weakening and "only a Cat 1" This kind of crap is going to get people killed. This is a very dangerous system no matter what kind of label you put on it. Geez they need to shut up about weakening...HH are finding increasing surface winds and falling pressures...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16859
2066. BeenThereinMiami
3:29 AM EDT on September 12, 2008
EarthwalkUSA - what is your take on how the forward speed of Ike will evolve as it approaches the coast, at landfall and once over land ?
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2065. KarenRei
7:28 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting KRL:
Houston Mayor Tells Public Don't Evacuate

"Fearing millions of people could get trapped in mass traffic jams on the highways, officials in Houston have decided to stare Ike down instead of telling people to flee."

All I can say is OMG.


If they're so worried about traffic jams, why not contraflow? I mean, seriously. The order to evac Galveston should have been on Wednesday. Houston should have had contraflow on Thursday. What a ridiculous way to handle a storm like this...
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 940
2064. TulsaMeteorologist
7:30 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Since I never look at BAMM due to its simplicity, you may be right about that one.
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2063. PensacolaNewbie
7:26 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
djti-



Where is stormW? I'm tending to lean toward your direction, and want to trust you, but I know you've said alot of other things that the majority don't agree with you on. So my question is why should I trust you? Why should I believe that you know what you are talking about? Remember that I'm new to this and claim no knowledge or understanding to anything pertaining to hurricanes, except the damage they are capable of causing(I went through Ivan). This is in no way an attack on you, I'm just looking for qualifications.
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2062. washingaway
2:25 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
I think the early cycles are just spit out without graphics, coordinates only. Not sure though.
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2061. WatchingThisOne
7:27 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting KRL:
Houston Mayor Tells Public Don't Evacuate

"Fearing millions of people could get trapped in mass traffic jams on the highways, officials in Houston have decided to stare Ike down instead of telling people to flee."

All I can say is OMG.

Stare Ike down??? OMG is right.
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2060. CirrusCloudWalker
2:29 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
Quoting TulsaMeteorologist:
I have never met her personally...have met all the others at her station though and know 2 of them pretty well.


I useed to work with her in Texas.
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2059. EarthwalkUSA
7:25 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
One last time, then I'm out. Ike had two eys - the smaller eyewall has been disintegrating causing sporadic drops in pressure. Once the Outer eye takes over (which it is) it will become visible(better in daylight) and the winds will begin to catch up to a falling pressure. This is a cat 3-cat 4 storm both winds and surge. The job to the west was expected, but I know from 13 hurricanes a jog to the North is also expected. My prayers to Galveston and the NE quadrant.
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2058. moonlightcowboy
2:25 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
2042. Thanks, Floridian. No rain really, but steady wind of 25-30 with gusts to 40-50. Water finally peaked about five feet higher, but with good waves still capping.

I am dreading tomorrow and Saturday, especially! :(

I'm out for some rest. Thanks, SJ, for all your continued help these past three years, friend!

Have a good sleep, all!
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2057. KarenRei
7:26 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
954.8mb HH extrapolated surface winds, 955mb dropsonde. Assuming they go with the dropsonde's pressure, the next vortex will be down 2mb from the last vortex of one hour ago.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 940
2056. StormJunkie
7:25 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
All right Tulsa, you are the met, I'll take your word for it. Either way data entry (what I would consider running) starts at 06z correct?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16859
2055. TxMarc
7:26 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting pilatus:
See the latest HH center fix. The inner eye feature has totally collapsed and has been replaced by a wider center feature.


well said....
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2054. KRL
7:24 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Houston Mayor Tells Public Don't Evacuate

"Fearing millions of people could get trapped in mass traffic jams on the highways, officials in Houston have decided to stare Ike down instead of telling people to flee."

All I can say is OMG.
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2053. RiverRose
7:23 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
2031.
LOL Now that's funny. Silly, but funny.
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2052. Nutzabout3
7:26 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting StormJunkie:
Thank you Nutz, I needed a good laugh :~)


LOL... me too - I kill myself sometimes!

8o)
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2051. TulsaMeteorologist
7:25 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
I have never met her personally...have met all the others at her station though and know 2 of them pretty well.
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2050. boyzNme
7:22 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting silverstripes:
Out of blackout now.




Pokemon Ike-achu!!
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2049. pilatus
7:24 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
See the latest HH center fix. The inner eye feature has totally collapsed and has been replaced by a wider center feature.
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2048. TulsaMeteorologist
7:25 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
This is 100% correct.
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2047. OUFan919
7:23 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Another dropsonde reporting a pressure of 955mb, down 2mb from the recent vortex message.
Member Since: July 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 329
2046. BeenThereinMiami
3:23 AM EDT on September 12, 2008
Thanks SJ - I'm off. It appears there are night owl trolls as well - sigh. Good luck to you all in the path of Ike.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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