Ike's storm surge an extreme danger to Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:06 PM GMT on September 11, 2008

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Hurricane Ike remains a huge a dangerous Category 2 hurricane, and has changed little since this morning. Ike's central pressure continues to hold steady at 950 mb, as measured by the Hurricane Hunters at 3:14 pm EDT. Ike's tiny 9-mile wide eye appears to be collapsing, which will allow a new eyewall of much larger-diameter to form. This event should allow Ike to start intensifying tonight. The latest Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential image shows that the center of Ike has just finished crossing a cold eddy in the Gulf of Mexico waters, and is now beginning to pass along the north side of a warm eddy. This change in oceanic heat should also help allow Ike to intensify tonight. The eddy is not ideally positioned, though, for rapid intensification to occur. The eddy is on the left (weak) side of the hurricane, where wind speeds are slower since the forward motion of the storm subtracts from the wind speed of the circulation. These lower-speed winds will be able to evaporate less moisture from the warm ocean than if the eddy were positioned on Ike's right side. Oceanic heat content remains moderately high after Ike crosses the eddy, which should allow some modest strengthening to continue. Wind shear of 10-15 knots and dry air on Ike's west side is hampering Ike slightly, as evidenced by the lack of upper-level outflow on the storm's west side and lack of heavy thunderstorm activity. Shear is expected to decrease to 5 knots by the time of landfall Saturday morning, and I expect Ike will be maintaining its strength or slowly intensifying right up until landfall. Ike will probably be at the top end of Category 2 strength at landfall, with 110 mph winds.

Comparisons to Carla and Katrina
Ike is larger than Katrina was, both in its radius of tropical storm force winds--275 miles--and in it radius of hurricane force winds--115 miles. For comparison, Katrina's tropical storm and hurricane force winds extended out 230 and 105 miles, respectively. Ike's surge will probably rival the massive storm surge of Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city. Ike's maximum surge is not likely to reach the extreme values above 20 feet seen in Hurricane Carla, though.


Figure 1. Experimental storm surge heights for Ike. There is a 10% chance the storm surge from Ike will exceed these values. Data courtesy of NOAA.

The total energy of Ike
The amount of water Ike has put in motion is about 10% greater than what Katrina did, and thus we can expect Ike's storm surge damage will be similar to or greater than Katrina's. The way we can estimate this damage potential is to compute the total energy of Ike's surface winds (kinetic energy). To do this, we must look at how strong the winds are, and factor in the areal coverage of these winds. Thus, we compute the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) by squaring the velocity of the wind and summing over all regions of the hurricane with tropical storm force winds or higher. This "Integrated Kinetic Energy" was recently proposed by Dr. Mark Powell of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division as a better measure of the destructive power of a hurricane's storm surge than the usual Category 1-5 Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, Hurricane Katrina hit Mississippi as a strong Category 3 hurricane, yet its storm surge was more characteristic of a Category 5 storm. Dr. Powell came up with a new scale to rate potential storm surge damage based on IKE (not to be confused with Hurricane Ike!) The new scale ranges from 1-6. Katrina and Wilma at their peaks both earned a 5.1 on this scale (Figure 2). At 12:30pm EDT today, Ike earned a 5.2 on this scale, the second highest kinetic energy of any Atlantic storm in the past 40 years. Hurricane Isabel of 2003 had the highest. Note that the figures I quoted in this morning's blog saying Ike had an IKE of 180, 50% higher than Katrina's, were found to be in error due to some bad data from one of the Hurricane Hunter observations (the IKE is an experimental product, after all). Thus, this morning's IKE was actually a little lower than Katrina's.


Figure 2. Comparison of the potential damage from storm surge and waves on a scale of 1 to 6 (left scale, and corresponding to little "x" marks on the plot), as a function of total Integrated Kinetic Energy in Tera-joules (IKE, on the right scale, corresponding to the little squares on the plot). Hurricane Ike at 12:30pm EDT had an IKE of 134, 10% higher than the value of 122 Katrina had at landfall in Mississippi. Ike's amount of wind energy can generate storm surge and wave damage rated at 5.2 on a scale of 1 to 6, worse than Katrina's 5.1 at landfall. Image credit:"Tropical Cyclone Destructive Potential by Integrated Kinetic Energy" by Mark Powell and Timothy Reinhold.

Ike's waves
All this energy is also going into the waves in the Gulf of Mexico, and the offshore oil rigs can expect to receive a terrific battering. At 1:50pm CDT, waves at the buoy 42001 180nm south of Louisiana peaked at 30 feet. NHC is predicting Ike's waves will peak at 50 feet (15 meters) in the northern Gulf on Friday. For comparison, Hurricane Ivan of 2004 generated 27 meter (89 foot) high waves in the Gulf of Mexico. The oil companies spent hundreds of millions of dollars upgrading their oil rigs in the Gulf in the wake of the destruction wrought by Ivan and Katrina and Rita, and I'm not anticipating severe damage to the rigs from Ike's 50-foot waves.

Ike's storm surge
According to the NOAA tide gauges, the storm tides along the Mississippi coast have peaked at 4 feet above normal, and are currently running 5 feet above normal on the east side of New Orleans at Shell Beach in Lake Borgne. A storm surge of 5.9 feet was observed in New Orleans' Industrial Canal at 10:45 am CDT, and 5.75 feet in Waveland, Mississippi. Coastal Alabama is reporting a 4-6 foot storm surge, with 10-15 foot waves. Considering the center of Ike is over 250 miles south of these locations, it is not hard to imagine that Texas will get a 15-20 foot storm surge, even if Ike does not strengthen.

Ike will probably inundate a 250-mile stretch of Texas coast from Port O'Connor to the Louisiana border with a 10-15 foot storm surge. This will occur even if Ike is a Category 1 storm at landfall. If Ike is a Category 3+ hurricane at landfall, surges of 20+ feet are possible. The latest experimental storm surge forecast From NOAA's SLOSH model (Figure 1) shows a 10% chance that Ike's storm surge will exceed 18-21 feet at Galveston. The Galveston sea wall is 17 feet high, so it may get overtopped. At noon today, a mandatory evacuation of the entire island was ordered in case this worst-case scenario is realized. The official NHC forecast is calling for maximum storm surge heights of 20 feet.

What should Texas residents do?
We must assume Ike will intensify to a Category 3 hurricane by landfall, which would likely do $20-$30 billion in damage. Ike's storm surge is going to be affect a huge area and be tremendously destructive. The latest Hurricane Local Statement from the Galveston National Weather Service office puts things in pretty stark perspective:

All neighborhoods... and possibly entire coastal communities... will be inundated during high tide. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face certain death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere. Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads will be swamped... some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property damage... with massive destruction of homes... including those of block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to repair.

I recommend Texas residents consult NHC's wind probability product to determine their odds of getting hurricane force winds.

For storm surge evacuation zone information, consult the Texas Division of Emergency Management.

For storm surge heights, consult our Storm surge risk for the Texas coast page.

Links to follow
Galveston, TX weather

Tide gauges along the Gulf Coast

Mid Gulf Buoy 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA (42001)

Tropical disturbance 91L north of Puerto Rico
An area of disturbed weather (91L) has developed a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Satellite loops show that 91L has a very small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but does have a circulation at middle levels of the atmosphere. A surface circulation is not apparent, but the mid-level spin could work its way down to the surface over the next day or two. The disturbance in under about 20 knots of wind shear, and is also having trouble with some dry air to the west. Shear is expected to remain 10-20 knots though Saturday, then increase to 25 knots. We may expect some slow development until Saturday, when wind shear should be too high to allow further development. None of the models are developing 91L. By Tuesday, as 91L will be approaching the east coast of Florida, shear is expected to decline to 15 knots, and some additional development may be possible, if the disturbance holds together that long.

I'll have an update tonight if there's a significant change in Ike.

Jeff Masters

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1196. iluvjess
3:11 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting WindynEYW:
plywood impact test ok listen putting tape on widows during a hurricane is like putting a bandaid on an arterial bleed, i install hurricane shutters. taping window does nothing to protect the occupants


Indeed, I have never seen metal hurricane shutters afixes to bolts permanently attached to the structure breeched. I concur, they will protect property and life. Unfortunately it will be too late for many.
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1195. Camellia1356
10:05 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
Gas in Slidell, LA, is $3.59/gallon (Kangaroo, exit 80 on I-12). It's about the same as it's been all week.

Perhaps it will change tomorrow...
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1194. leasehound1
3:08 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting DNel1285:


Ike is nowhere near Tip sized....Ike is currently 2/3 the size of GOMEX. Tip, according to the graphic you posted was 1&1/3 the size of the GOMEX.


The diameter of this storm is actually larger than the diameters of the cones of uncertainity.
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1193. BajaALemt
10:13 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
I sure hope folks listened and got the heck out
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1192. jb2five
3:10 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
if the latest HH data shows maximum wind speeds of 85 mph, why does everyone still say 100?
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1191. Hurricane4Lex
3:10 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
anyone know wat a cat 2 could do to the power here from pearland to houston btw?
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1190. Canenut
3:04 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
If Ike is producing 30-40' waves, that is on top of any storm surge that might be experienced, correct? Also does anyone know what the tallest building is in Houston. The dropsondes were showing a 10-15% increase in windspeeds at 600-700'
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1189. HopquickSteve
3:10 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting NoMeteorsInOlogy:
I have never heard Dr Masters post such a sobering quote, and I am hoping for the best and fearing the worst for Texans:

"All neighborhoods... and possibly entire coastal communities... will be inundated during high tide. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face certain death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere. Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads will be swamped... some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property damage... with massive destruction of homes... including those of block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to repair."

Yeah, that's an official quote from the NWS for Galveston.
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1188. dragonsclaw65tx
3:06 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
I do highrise bldgs, shut down at 1500 today, poured 220 cy concrete this morning and secured all material, working 340 ft in the air. Houston med center area. Please all take care in this path!
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1187. AndyN
3:09 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
TSFW: 265 miles!
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1186. PcolaJess
10:09 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
ok so the pics I took of pensacola beach and the waves we had today are finally approved.
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1185. SomeRandomTexan
3:05 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
doesnt look as if Ike will strenghten any... probably will weakend as he gets closer to land... Still a DANGEROUS storm though becuase of the huge surge... levees in Port Arthur Tx are 15 feet. Surge predicted to be 20 feet... NOT GOOD!
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1184. donkeywrangler
10:10 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
http://cosmopolitician.wordpress.com/2008/09/11/ike-ike-baby/
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1183. whipster
11:11 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
This seems to be the fastest updating sat loop:
Link
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1182. BajaALemt
10:03 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
1154. melianthus This is all VERY basic.... Link

and...

Link
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1181. jdjnola
3:04 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting raindancer:
NHC discussion now out would indicate Ike is not strengthening at all - and has little chance of strengthening any time soon.


Au contraire, mon frere, the NHC advisory says:

"SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST."

whereas the Discussion states:

"IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT IKE COULD REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE CROSSING THE COAST."

and the wind probs give Ike a 27% chance of reaching Cat3...

Regardless, Ike is whipping up some water for wherever he makes landfall, and the discussion explicitly points out:

"DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS EVEN A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT THAN BEFORE...NOW ABOUT 80 N MI
."
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1180. newenglandnative
3:00 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Looks like the seas are still pretty well churned up all over the Gulf
Check out this buoy 64 miles south of Dauphin Island, AL:
That's 250 miles from Ike right now.
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1179. STORMTTOP
3:05 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Ike will not turn when they think it will. Looks like it will indeed go further WEST than originally thought.
1178. AtmosphericWrath
3:08 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Back now...

Good evening all.
Looking forward to everyone's analysis, insight, and thoughts.

*Loads loops with unbelievable anticipation*
Member Since: September 6, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
1177. NoMeteorsInOlogy
3:01 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
I have never heard Dr Masters post such a sobering quote, and I am hoping for the best and fearing the worst for Texans:

"All neighborhoods... and possibly entire coastal communities... will be inundated during high tide. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face certain death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere. Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads will be swamped... some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property damage... with massive destruction of homes... including those of block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to repair."
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1176. Titusvillian
11:09 PM EDT on September 11, 2008
Before I had $$ to get shutters, I'd use shelf lining/contact paper to cover all of the windows. kept them from shattering to pieces. But a realllll pain to clean afterwards.
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1175. Watchingthegulf
3:05 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Yahoo!! IKE stays a 2! Galveston island still in trouble due to surge but I think Houston can weather a Cat 2!
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1173. keyjo50
3:04 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Far reaching impact help:

As Ike comes inland, what can I expect in N. Louisiana (Ruston area)? For Gustav, we had 60mph gusts and LOTS of rain. Am I looking at more and do I need to get on my electrician's butt to hook up the generator (natural gas gen.)?
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1171. StormJunkie
3:04 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
1158.

Not exactly what they said...

IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT IKE COULD REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE CROSSING THE COAST.
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1170. UWalkTheMall
3:02 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Water levels here in Cape Coral Florida have been roughly 10-12" higher than normal for the last few days.
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1169. amd
3:04 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
it took 2 and a half days, but finally the inner eyewall is dying.

Hopefully the entire process of establishing a new eyewall takes 24 hours, and maybe IKE will not be bad as feared.

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1168. Titusvillian
11:03 PM EDT on September 11, 2008
There'd be a lot of bicycle riding...and we'd all lose weight!
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1167. Chicklit
9:52 PM EST on September 11, 2008
Good Evening, Everyone! Not staying long as I have work long and hard today and can barely keep my eyes open!
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1166. billy305
11:04 PM EDT on September 11, 2008
does anyone have the forecast models for 91L
if any
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1165. djti
3:03 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Ike's inner core has been disrupted by an eyewall replacement cycle, and there is still some dry air mixing around in there...

The pressure rise is quite standard for the inner core changes he's experiencing.

However the outflow is improving on the western semicircle and deep thunderstorm activity is on the increase.

I see Ike starting to intensify in a couple hours...and we'll all wake up to a strong Cat 2 headed for Cat 3 by 11 or 5 tomorrow!


reading the discussion and the replacement eye, or wind maxima is 80miles from the center. this is not conducive to strengthening within the time left over water to say the least.
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1164. Bobbyweather
12:04 PM KST on September 12, 2008
everyone except the idle users are out of the weather chat..
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1163. Vero1
3:04 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
000
WTNT44 KNHC 120300
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF STRENGTH...SIZE...AND STRUCTURE
THIS EVENING. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS NOT RID ITSELF OF WHAT
REMAINS OF THE OLD INNER EYEWALL...BUT RECON SHOWS THAT WINDS ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT FEATURE.
INSTEAD...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS EVEN A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT THAN BEFORE...NOW ABOUT 80 N MI. SFMR RETRIEVED WIND
SPEEDS AND LOW-LAYER AVERAGES FROM DROPSONDES IN THAT MAXIMUM WIND
BAND SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 85 KT. ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL REMAIN OVER WATER FOR A
LITTLE MORE THAN 24 HOURS...PROVIDING THE CYCLONE SOME OPPORTUNITY
TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE WEAKENING OVER LAND. THE SLOWLY-CHANGING
STRUCTURE ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...AND NONE OF
THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE EXPLICITLY FORECASTS IKE TO REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF ARE NOT EXACTLY COLD...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST STILL SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE
GUIDANCE. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT IKE COULD REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE CROSSING THE COAST.

IKE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/10 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL
ROUND THAT RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD IN GENERAL LAST UNTIL IKE IS NEAR OR OVER THE
COASTLINE...BUT THE EXACT TIMING OF THE TURN IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY
UNCERTAIN THAT ONE CANNOT SPECIFY A TIME AND LOCATION OF FINAL
LANDFALL OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DUE TO THE VERY LARGE SIZE OF
THE CYCLONE...HOWEVER...IKE WILL AFFECT A VERY LARGE AREA
REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER GOES. DAMAGING WINDS AND
DANGEROUS STORM SURGES COULD EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...AND CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL DETERIORATE
TOMORROW WELL IN ADVANCE OF LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS HAVE NOT TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER SINCE
THE LAST CYCLE...AND ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED RIGHT AROUND THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS CHANGED NEGLIGIBLY ON
THIS ADVISORY. THE NEW TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE DURING THE INLAND RECURVATURE...AND THE FORECAST NOW DESIGNATES
IKE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT 72 HOURS AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 26.3N 90.4W 85 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 27.1N 92.1W 90 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 28.5N 94.1W 95 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 30.3N 95.5W 65 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 14/0000Z 32.9N 95.7W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/0000Z 39.0N 88.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/0000Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

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1162. ssmate
10:01 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Ike's inner core has been disrupted by an eyewall replacement cycle, and there is still some dry air mixing around in there...

The pressure rise is quite standard for the inner core changes he's experiencing.

However the outflow is improving on the western semicircle and deep thunderstorm activity is on the increase.

I see Ike starting to intensify in a couple hours...and we'll all wake up to a strong Cat 2 headed for Cat 3 by 11 or 5 tomorrow!


This appears to be exatlty what will take place, IMO
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1161. WindynEYW
3:02 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
plywood impact test ok listen putting tape on widows during a hurricane is like putting a bandaid on an arterial bleed, i install hurricane shutters. taping window does nothing to protect the occupants
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1160. SFLGirl1
11:03 PM EDT on September 11, 2008
Quoting Jaxatheart:
hey everyone- I can not remember the places where the lists for prepping tips-
no, not for me, a friend there that has just contacted me and wanting to make sure she has everything ready.......
Does anyone remember either of the names or blogs?
THANK YOU!

Prayers to everyone in harm's way and those with family and friends-

Link
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1159. StormJunkie
3:01 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
1150. Patrap has a great preparedness blog.
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1158. raindancer
3:02 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
NHC discussion now out would indicate Ike is not strengthening at all - and has little chance of strengthening any time soon.
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1157. atmoaggie
2:59 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting Titusvillian:
Some gas stations in Central Florida limiting amount of gas due to "rationing" by "low supplies"
Ya know, that wouldn't happen if that state had enough drilling rigs and refineries to supply itself. Just what would the US be like if LA and TX left and became independent? (not really suggesting such a thing, only the hypothetical thought)
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1156. MSGULFGAL
3:02 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Need to travel tomorrow to NO from MS on I-10 for a class. Do you think it will be safe driving conditions?
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1155. MSGULFGAL
2:52 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
I was wondering how conditions are in NOLA. Need to travel there in AM on I-10 to Airport and return to MS in PM. Do I need to rethink my plans? Need to come over for a class.
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1154. melianthus
2:52 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Hi All,

I am looking for a basic tutorial on how to read all of these floaters, etc., anyone have a link handy? I would very much appreciate it.

Thanks!
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1153. Brillig
2:52 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
With the surge affecting a large portion of the Gulf of Mexico, I have to wonder about currents. All that water must be literally flowing through the space between the Yucatan and Cuba or between Cuba and Florida. Since the Gulf Stream flows northward through this area, I assume that the flow next to the Yucatan has increased and next to Florida has decreased in order to divert water into the Gulf.

Does anyone know of a website showing such currents that could test this idea? Best would be if the site showed a map of current changes compared to normal vs. actual current, I think.
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1152. RMM34667
2:51 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
hurricanejeanne is probably china with a vindeta against storm.. IGNORE should take care of that.
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1151. OSUWXGUY
2:52 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Ike's inner core has been disrupted by an eyewall replacement cycle, and there is still some dry air mixing around in there...

The pressure rise is quite standard for the inner core changes he's experiencing.

However the outflow is improving on the western semicircle and deep thunderstorm activity is on the increase.

I see Ike starting to intensify in a couple hours...and we'll all wake up to a strong Cat 2 headed for Cat 3 by 11 or 5 tomorrow!
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1150. Jaxatheart
10:52 PM EDT on September 11, 2008
hey everyone- I can not remember the places where the lists for prepping tips-
no, not for me, a friend there that has just contacted me and wanting to make sure she has everything ready.......
Does anyone remember either of the names or blogs?
THANK YOU!

Prayers to everyone in harm's way and those with family and friends-
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1149. SwirlOfDoom
2:53 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
What was the 7PM position? Anyone?
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1148. UWalkTheMall
2:53 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
It would be my opinion that the pop up ads they have recently added to this page are causing allot of the lag that we are all experiencing.
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1147. StormJunkie
2:55 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
3d-LIIVID out of New Orleans. No longer taking up any of your Java memory!
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1146. atmoaggie
2:56 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting tabbiLA:
Gas lines everywhere here in Baton Rouge. If this keeps up we will be out of gas before the morning. Traffic was also extremely horrible. Lot of traffic coming in from Texas area. With extra people on the road and electricity still out in some places make Baton Rouge hell on earth right now.


Your other name better not be Cammie. Wouldn't have pegged Pat's mom as a weather nut to be found in a tropical blog.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto
New Years Day Sunset in Death Valley
Big Sur Clouds