Ike's storm surge an extreme danger to Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:06 PM GMT on September 11, 2008

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Hurricane Ike remains a huge a dangerous Category 2 hurricane, and has changed little since this morning. Ike's central pressure continues to hold steady at 950 mb, as measured by the Hurricane Hunters at 3:14 pm EDT. Ike's tiny 9-mile wide eye appears to be collapsing, which will allow a new eyewall of much larger-diameter to form. This event should allow Ike to start intensifying tonight. The latest Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential image shows that the center of Ike has just finished crossing a cold eddy in the Gulf of Mexico waters, and is now beginning to pass along the north side of a warm eddy. This change in oceanic heat should also help allow Ike to intensify tonight. The eddy is not ideally positioned, though, for rapid intensification to occur. The eddy is on the left (weak) side of the hurricane, where wind speeds are slower since the forward motion of the storm subtracts from the wind speed of the circulation. These lower-speed winds will be able to evaporate less moisture from the warm ocean than if the eddy were positioned on Ike's right side. Oceanic heat content remains moderately high after Ike crosses the eddy, which should allow some modest strengthening to continue. Wind shear of 10-15 knots and dry air on Ike's west side is hampering Ike slightly, as evidenced by the lack of upper-level outflow on the storm's west side and lack of heavy thunderstorm activity. Shear is expected to decrease to 5 knots by the time of landfall Saturday morning, and I expect Ike will be maintaining its strength or slowly intensifying right up until landfall. Ike will probably be at the top end of Category 2 strength at landfall, with 110 mph winds.

Comparisons to Carla and Katrina
Ike is larger than Katrina was, both in its radius of tropical storm force winds--275 miles--and in it radius of hurricane force winds--115 miles. For comparison, Katrina's tropical storm and hurricane force winds extended out 230 and 105 miles, respectively. Ike's surge will probably rival the massive storm surge of Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city. Ike's maximum surge is not likely to reach the extreme values above 20 feet seen in Hurricane Carla, though.


Figure 1. Experimental storm surge heights for Ike. There is a 10% chance the storm surge from Ike will exceed these values. Data courtesy of NOAA.

The total energy of Ike
The amount of water Ike has put in motion is about 10% greater than what Katrina did, and thus we can expect Ike's storm surge damage will be similar to or greater than Katrina's. The way we can estimate this damage potential is to compute the total energy of Ike's surface winds (kinetic energy). To do this, we must look at how strong the winds are, and factor in the areal coverage of these winds. Thus, we compute the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) by squaring the velocity of the wind and summing over all regions of the hurricane with tropical storm force winds or higher. This "Integrated Kinetic Energy" was recently proposed by Dr. Mark Powell of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division as a better measure of the destructive power of a hurricane's storm surge than the usual Category 1-5 Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, Hurricane Katrina hit Mississippi as a strong Category 3 hurricane, yet its storm surge was more characteristic of a Category 5 storm. Dr. Powell came up with a new scale to rate potential storm surge damage based on IKE (not to be confused with Hurricane Ike!) The new scale ranges from 1-6. Katrina and Wilma at their peaks both earned a 5.1 on this scale (Figure 2). At 12:30pm EDT today, Ike earned a 5.2 on this scale, the second highest kinetic energy of any Atlantic storm in the past 40 years. Hurricane Isabel of 2003 had the highest. Note that the figures I quoted in this morning's blog saying Ike had an IKE of 180, 50% higher than Katrina's, were found to be in error due to some bad data from one of the Hurricane Hunter observations (the IKE is an experimental product, after all). Thus, this morning's IKE was actually a little lower than Katrina's.


Figure 2. Comparison of the potential damage from storm surge and waves on a scale of 1 to 6 (left scale, and corresponding to little "x" marks on the plot), as a function of total Integrated Kinetic Energy in Tera-joules (IKE, on the right scale, corresponding to the little squares on the plot). Hurricane Ike at 12:30pm EDT had an IKE of 134, 10% higher than the value of 122 Katrina had at landfall in Mississippi. Ike's amount of wind energy can generate storm surge and wave damage rated at 5.2 on a scale of 1 to 6, worse than Katrina's 5.1 at landfall. Image credit:"Tropical Cyclone Destructive Potential by Integrated Kinetic Energy" by Mark Powell and Timothy Reinhold.

Ike's waves
All this energy is also going into the waves in the Gulf of Mexico, and the offshore oil rigs can expect to receive a terrific battering. At 1:50pm CDT, waves at the buoy 42001 180nm south of Louisiana peaked at 30 feet. NHC is predicting Ike's waves will peak at 50 feet (15 meters) in the northern Gulf on Friday. For comparison, Hurricane Ivan of 2004 generated 27 meter (89 foot) high waves in the Gulf of Mexico. The oil companies spent hundreds of millions of dollars upgrading their oil rigs in the Gulf in the wake of the destruction wrought by Ivan and Katrina and Rita, and I'm not anticipating severe damage to the rigs from Ike's 50-foot waves.

Ike's storm surge
According to the NOAA tide gauges, the storm tides along the Mississippi coast have peaked at 4 feet above normal, and are currently running 5 feet above normal on the east side of New Orleans at Shell Beach in Lake Borgne. A storm surge of 5.9 feet was observed in New Orleans' Industrial Canal at 10:45 am CDT, and 5.75 feet in Waveland, Mississippi. Coastal Alabama is reporting a 4-6 foot storm surge, with 10-15 foot waves. Considering the center of Ike is over 250 miles south of these locations, it is not hard to imagine that Texas will get a 15-20 foot storm surge, even if Ike does not strengthen.

Ike will probably inundate a 250-mile stretch of Texas coast from Port O'Connor to the Louisiana border with a 10-15 foot storm surge. This will occur even if Ike is a Category 1 storm at landfall. If Ike is a Category 3+ hurricane at landfall, surges of 20+ feet are possible. The latest experimental storm surge forecast From NOAA's SLOSH model (Figure 1) shows a 10% chance that Ike's storm surge will exceed 18-21 feet at Galveston. The Galveston sea wall is 17 feet high, so it may get overtopped. At noon today, a mandatory evacuation of the entire island was ordered in case this worst-case scenario is realized. The official NHC forecast is calling for maximum storm surge heights of 20 feet.

What should Texas residents do?
We must assume Ike will intensify to a Category 3 hurricane by landfall, which would likely do $20-$30 billion in damage. Ike's storm surge is going to be affect a huge area and be tremendously destructive. The latest Hurricane Local Statement from the Galveston National Weather Service office puts things in pretty stark perspective:

All neighborhoods... and possibly entire coastal communities... will be inundated during high tide. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face certain death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere. Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads will be swamped... some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property damage... with massive destruction of homes... including those of block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to repair.

I recommend Texas residents consult NHC's wind probability product to determine their odds of getting hurricane force winds.

For storm surge evacuation zone information, consult the Texas Division of Emergency Management.

For storm surge heights, consult our Storm surge risk for the Texas coast page.

Links to follow
Galveston, TX weather

Tide gauges along the Gulf Coast

Mid Gulf Buoy 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA (42001)

Tropical disturbance 91L north of Puerto Rico
An area of disturbed weather (91L) has developed a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Satellite loops show that 91L has a very small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but does have a circulation at middle levels of the atmosphere. A surface circulation is not apparent, but the mid-level spin could work its way down to the surface over the next day or two. The disturbance in under about 20 knots of wind shear, and is also having trouble with some dry air to the west. Shear is expected to remain 10-20 knots though Saturday, then increase to 25 knots. We may expect some slow development until Saturday, when wind shear should be too high to allow further development. None of the models are developing 91L. By Tuesday, as 91L will be approaching the east coast of Florida, shear is expected to decline to 15 knots, and some additional development may be possible, if the disturbance holds together that long.

I'll have an update tonight if there's a significant change in Ike.

Jeff Masters

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3496. listenerVT
3:15 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting TRed:
just got word that chuck norris is on his way to galveston to "ask" everyone to evacuate "please"



This sounds like a Johnny Carson answer to the question:
"What does it take to get people to evacuate from Galveston?"
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3495. WindynEYW
11:16 AM EDT on September 12, 2008
Quoting Patrap:
I hope someones Looking at the Rainbow Floater

Short Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop Link
WOW!
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3494. Nolehead
10:14 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
3485. presslord 10:13 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
I would suggest frying the fish....along with some hush puppies...


be sure to add beer to those hush puppies now...
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3493. stormwatcherTX
3:12 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
GulfScotsman. BIBLICAL? Look it's just a storm where exactly does the bible come into this? I think you are taking the hit & miss. I've never clicked ignore on anyone in this blog - until now. :-)
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3491. Patrap
10:13 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
I hope someones Looking at the Rainbow Floater

Short Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130852
3490. Chiggy007
3:11 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
Anybody here expect rapid deepening to 940 mb in the next 12 hours! THis is a moot point now since effects of IKE are going to be like a CAT4/5 BUT I see def see a wide eye forming and once that forms I think all bets are off...but what do I know!! :)
3489. tkeith
10:13 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
Quoting presslord:
I would suggest frying the fish....along with some hush puppies...
you would fit in just fine down here in south La...lol
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3488. listenerVT
3:14 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
Posted this awhile ago, but never saw it show up:


Deaths in Texas will not be on the heads of Jim Cantore or Doc Lyons.
They are doing a great job explaining and showing the imminent devastation.
Cantore even said that the people and local authorities do not seem to be taking Ike seriously enough.
It is unconscionable that 50% of the people in Galveston did not evacuate!!
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3487. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
3:12 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #19 (1500 UTC)
=======================================

Typhoon "MARCE" has weakened slightly as it continues moving towards Taiwan Area.

At 11:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Marce (Sinlaku) located at 23.7°N 123.5°E or 370 kms north-northeast Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 160 km/h (85 knots) with gusts up to 195 km/h (105 knots).

Storm Warning Signals
===================================

Signal Warning Number 1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Batanes group of islands

-----
Taiwan Central Weather Bureau

100 knots 925 hPa

TYPHOON WARNING IS IN EFFECT!!
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3486. newenglandnative
2:56 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting stormy2008:
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 92.6W AT
Hey folks, if true that puts its heading dead on for Houston now from last mark at N 26.9 W 92.2... about compass heading 320.
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3485. presslord
11:11 AM EDT on September 12, 2008
I would suggest frying the fish....along with some hush puppies...
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3484. TRUSTNOWON
11:10 AM EDT on September 12, 2008
Quoting presslord:
Coast Guard helicopters can perform rescues in up to 75 kt winds....incredible....


Yes they are incredible. I witnessed a rescue in 45ft seas and 60kt winds when I was on Lightship duty off the Washington Coast.
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3483. Zaphod
3:08 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
It's not news, just CNN:
"On the Bolivar Peninsula, northeast of Galveston, the Coast Guard was using helicopters to rescue stranded motorists.

A U.S. military official told CNN that Texas anticipates 37,000 people may need to be rescued."

I have no idea where this 37K number comes from. It would be impossible to any significant number by helo of course.
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 3239
3482. TRed
3:11 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
just got word that chuck norris is on his way to galveston to "ask" everyone to evacuate "please"
3481. WhereIsTheStorm
3:07 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
To all that are complaining about coming to the blog and finding posts unrelated to what they are looking for, please just use the ignore user feature and you will only see the posts from the people that aren't posting irrelevant information and in that way the rest of us don't have to see your posts complaining as well. If you don't like this post then hit IGNORE User.
Back to monitoring what affects this storm is going to have on the entire TX coast.
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3479. gecko
2:47 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting CrazyDuke:


My parents had a goldfish pond during Floyd. They all swam into the yard and most where never found again. I'm sorry to be such a downer.


I would suggest sandbagging around the pond to keep the water in.
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3478. nrtiwlnvragn
11:09 AM EDT on September 12, 2008
For Guidance Purposes Only. Please refer to NWS forecasts for official storm surge information.

From 11 AM Advisory


Click on image to view original size in a new window


Galveston Bay


Sabine Lake


New Orleans


Matagorda Bay


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3477. ProfGoose
3:10 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
The Oil Drum just updated Chuck Watson's oil refinery/infrastructure damage models. Ike is still in striking distance of over 5 million bpd of US petroleum refining capacity. (A little perspective: 5 MMBBL is about 30% of US capacity (about 15 MMBBL), and a bit less than 6% of global capacity (~85 MMBBL)

"The key question is refinery damage. Storm surge flooding is definitely the big risk. If the storm center makes landfall on or north of Galveston, the peak surges will be north of the main refineries. In fact the latest WRF run puts the peaks over Port Arthur (attached). There is a lot of infrastructure out there. Current models are showing that there will be at least 1 MMBBL offline for 30 days, with the potential for 5 MMBBL offline at 30 days and 4 MMBBL at 60 days, 1 to 2 MMBBL out through the end of the year. That would certainly cause significant shortages of refined products (e.g., gasoline)."

All sorts of maps, data, and other estimates here:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4521

Just like everything else, it still all depends on how strong and where...
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3476. displacedFloridian
3:08 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Ever see the "Ignore User" below each comment? That is the ignore function you are talking about (click it and then on the ignore list page click the Update button to add it, the person will be completely gone from your view).


I was suggesting an ignore function that would target content, not individuals. This would save me from wearing out my ignore button!!
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3475. LAgal78
3:08 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting Vero1:
Elderly evacuees stranded
September 12th, 2008 "More than 40 elderly Hurricane Ike evacuees from a Baytown nursing home found themselves not evacuating, but rather stuck on the buses sent to take them to safety." (KHOU)
Horrific!
3474. Orcasystems
3:08 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
Last complete Blog update until I get to work.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
3473. jdjnola
3:01 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting IKE:
1415 visible...



yIKEs!
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3472. DNel1285
3:00 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting canesjunkie:
Love the blog, BUT, I don't quite understand why Dr. M has not updated his blog in 17 HOURS when a major catastrophic event is only a few hours away. Just my 2 cents.


What more do you need to know, though? Ike is big, powerful, and destructive. If you didnt already know that by now....well then I guess a blog update would be appropriate.
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3470. stormwatcherTX
3:06 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
Testing? Is there something wrong with the boards or am I being penalised for simply asking the looney to pipe down with his politics? :-)
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3468. Vero1
3:04 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
Elderly evacuees stranded
September 12th, 2008 "More than 40 elderly Hurricane Ike evacuees from a Baytown nursing home found themselves not evacuating, but rather stuck on the buses sent to take them to safety." (KHOU)
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3467. airChrist
3:00 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
still some dry air to the west but definite eye-feature coming together. does anyone see this as less than CAT 3 at landfall now?

rainbow loop
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3466. OSUWXGUY
3:00 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
Surprised they didn't raise the winds to at least 110 if not 115!!!

The latest dropsonde launched in the region of max winds had 124 mph average over the last 150 meters, and 136 mph average over the last 500 meters.


Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: Lowest 150m: 160 gpm - 10 gpm (525 geo. feet - 33 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 150° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 108 knots (124 mph)


Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
969mb (Surface) 145° (from the SE) 87 knots (100 mph)
967mb 145° (from the SE) 89 knots (102 mph)
962mb 155° (from the SSE) 108 knots (124 mph)
959mb 150° (from the SSE) 115 knots (132 mph)
947mb 155° (from the SSE) 117 knots (135 mph)
939mb 160° (from the SSE) 127 knots (146 mph)
929mb 160° (from the SSE) 125 knots (144 mph)
912mb 165° (from the SSE) 131 knots (151 mph)
900mb 165° (from the SSE) 131 knots (151 mph)
894mb 170° (from the S) 127 knots (146 mph)
887mb 175° (from the S) 133 knots (153 mph)
753mb 190° (from the S) 83 knots (96 mph)
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3465. IKE
10:01 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
WTNT44 KNHC 121456
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT IKE HAS NOT
DEVELOPED A TIGHT INNER CORE AS ANTICIPATED. ONCE AGAIN THIS
REEMPHASIZES THE DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING CHANGES IN THE INNER
CORE STRUCTURE OF A HURRICANE WHICH LEADS TO CHANGES IN INTENSITY.
AN ELEVATED PLATFORM...122 METERS...400 FT HEIGHT NEAR THE CENTER
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 109 KNOTS EARLIER THIS MORNING WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANES SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KNOTS AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
IKE CONTINUES AS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE HURRICANE PRODUCING HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ABOUT 105 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE ONLY
TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT INCREASE. IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR MERGE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STEERING FLOW AND IKE
CONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK AT 10 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY HAS THE
HURRICANE CROSSING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
ONCE INLAND...IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD.

ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE
EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 27.2N 92.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W 95 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 30.0N 95.5W 80 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 32.5N 96.0W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 14/1200Z 36.0N 93.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
3464. weatherwart
11:02 AM EDT on September 12, 2008
Quoting Nechasin:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/science/09/12/hurricane.chaser/index.html
Is this the poster that was on last night 'I think called cycloneboyz or something.


I think that may be him, yeah.
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3463. Vero1
2:58 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
000
WTNT34 KNHC 121453
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...100 MPH PLUS WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST BY
MIDNIGHT...WEATHER SHOULD DETERIORATE EARLIER...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES...
480 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 195 MILES...320 KM
...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
SOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH A FEW SPOTS TO
NEAR 25 FEET...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN 5 FEET ALONG
MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...27.2 N...92.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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3462. Vero1
2:57 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
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3461. canesjunkie
2:57 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
Love the blog, BUT, I don't quite understand why Dr. M has not updated his blog in 17 HOURS when a major catastrophic event is only a few hours away. Just my 2 cents.
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3460. presslord
10:56 AM EDT on September 12, 2008
Coast Guard helicopters can perform rescues in up to 75 kt winds....incredible....
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3459. displacedFloridian
2:47 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
what this blog needs is an "ignore" function that covers all the BS that is not weather related that gets posted here.

Find somewhere else to post your boring poli-opinions and such people. The internet is huge and certainly has the room for it.
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3458. Nechasin
2:52 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/science/09/12/hurricane.chaser/index.html
Is this the poster that was on last night 'I think called cycloneboyz or something.
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3457. Patrap
9:53 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
TORLIX
LAC071-121500-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0137.080912T1449Z-080912T1500Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
949 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES ST CATHERINE...IRISH BAYOU AND BAYOU SAUVAGE FEDERAL
WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA

* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT

* AT 944 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER LAKE
BORGNE 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAKE CATHERINE...OR 21 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF EAST NEW ORLEANS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 52 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LAKE CATHERINE BY 955 AM CDT...
IRISH BAYOU AND HIGHWAY 11 CORRIDOR BY 10 AM CDT...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130852
3456. LakeShadow
2:51 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
* at 944 am CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado over Lake
Borgne 14 miles southeast of Lake Catherine...or 21 miles
southeast of east New Orleans...moving northwest at 52 mph.
more info on tornado page
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3455. stormy2008
10:52 AM EDT on September 12, 2008
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 92.6W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
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3453. Hhunter
9:47 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
patrap are you seeing a pretty strong west motion still in that loop?

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3452. Chiggy007
2:49 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
What evidence you have for quoting those T numbers!?
3451. LAgal78
2:45 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
Just received this update:

Cameron...4 foot of water at the court house in Cameron (the court house is the highest point in
Cameron) expected to get as high as maybe 17 foot.



Fourchon...per Harbor Police...3 to 4 foot of water through out the Port. Hwy. 1 leading to the Port is closed, at this time, indefinitely.
Debris on road will have to be removed again.



Venice...Per Nelson Wall...water level is as high as Gustov...and is expected to rise more through out today.



Morgan City....Fab Con dock has a storm serge of 8 to 10 inches...



Fresh water city....storm serge as of this morning 10 foot and expected to go to at least 12 foot.
3450. OctaviaStreet
2:47 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
Katy, if you have time and can reach the right store, here's a link that might help you with your fish if you can catch them and keep them inside:

http://www.smarter.com/se--qq-battery%2Baquarium%2Bair%2Bpump.html

When we were children and kept goldfish, we didn't have an aerator in their tank, just cleaned it out regularly. If you choose this route you might want to use unchlorinated water if possible.

Other than that, I'd try firmly securing some hardware cloth over the pond so that debris could be kept to a minimum. The winds you're expecting might not make this a sensible solution,

Good luck--even goldfish have personalities. I know our big old Fred did!
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3448. Patrap
9:43 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
If earlier was Bad. This is Badder.


Short Floater - AVN Color Infrared Loop Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130852
3447. GaleWeathers
2:42 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting SCAnne:
water is already rising in Galveston. here's a link for live cameras.

Link


That's a nice link! I like it better than the other bank of feeds because the screens are smaller and they all come up muted by default. Thanks for sharing.
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3446. FLDART1
1:50 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting iluvjess:
Well I am not educated as to the flooding problems in Houston but as a gulf coast resident and a flood adjuster I can tell you from aexperience that the wind and falling trees is no reason to evac 4 million people. I'm not extremely familiar with the demographics of that area but I do know that Kat brought surge into MS no more thatn aprox 10 miles. The catastrophic surge was only about 8 miles inland so I can't see the danger 50 miles inland. Aparently the officials in Houston don't see a threat for loss of life either. I don't see what the hype in the media is about.


Houston Has very poor drainage as evidenced during tropical Storm Allison. Inland flooding / Urban Flooding will be a MAJOR issue in Houston. The decision not to order mandatory evacuations was more a consideration of not trapping people on the highways, than anything else. Houston is not taking this lightly I assure you.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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