Ophelia to miss U.S.?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:33 AM GMT on September 11, 2005

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The latest 18Z (2pm EDT) runs of the GFDL and GFS models are in, and both continue the trend we've been seeing the past day or so of taking Ophelia more and more north. Both of these models are joining the NOGAPS model in taking Ophelia just over or offshore of Cape Hatteras, NC. It is becoming inreasingly likely that Ophelia will deliver at worst a glancing blow to the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and spare the U.S. a direct hit.



Before we get too enthusiastic about this development, we need to look at one more cycle of model runs. The 00Z (8pm EDT) runs of all the models will finish up sometime after midnight tonight. These model runs should have a much higher than average reliability. They will use data from the NOAA high-altitude jet, which is flying a high-density data mission tonight. If the models all show a continued track for Ophelia past the Outer Banks and out to sea, we can have some modest confidence that Ophelia will pull her punch.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a substantial amount of dry air getting sucked into Ophelia on her west side, weakening her. The 7:30pm EDT hurricane hunters mission found a 1 mb increase in pressure, a gap in the south side of the eyewall, and reduced flight level winds of 73 knots. Ophelia may have lost hurricane status again.

The latest GFDL model continues to forecast that she will fight off this dry air and attain Category 2 status. The upper-level outflow is improving, but there is still 10 - 15 knots of shear from upper-level westerly winds. Category 2 status still seems like a reasonable forecast, but Category 3 is looking increasingly unlikely.

Dr. Jeff Masters

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411. OBXER
2:39 AM GMT on September 12, 2005
Shoal you still on here?
410. mybahamas
4:59 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
Thanks for the concern Hills :)
I'm just waiting to hear on the local news if there was any serious weather events here last night. The sky was clear and sunny until an hour ago. Now, it's getting dark ... sort of like yesterday :(
I hope Ophelia's effect doesn't go on for more days here and in FL :(
409. taco2me61
3:54 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
Salter I am not sure where she will go I think it all depends on the High Pressure that is building in I say it will go south passed the 30par line before she goes west then westnorthwest...


Thats what I think right now...
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3167
408. aquak9
3:48 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
new thread, ya'll
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25497
407. Dawgfan
3:42 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
StormJunkie - The tragedy that hit the Gulf coast in the form of Hurricane Katrina is terrible. There are a lot of things that may have been done to try to move people out of harms way earlier, but New Orleans could have called for mandatory evacuations in advance of Hurricane Ivan or Hurricane Dennis or any of the other hurricanes that have threatened that area so many times.

Those evacuations would have cost millions of dollars and once it became apparent that they were not necessary there would have been a large outcry of criticism against the local government. It is a very hard decision. One that I personally wouldn't want to be responsible for. The city of Savannah, Georgia was evacuated some years ago and the hurricane stayed offshore and there were thousands of people who complained about their inconvenience and expense of being evacuated.

The problem is that an area that is as vulnerable as New Orleans shouldn't have grown as large (population). The lowest areas were probably occupied by the poorest people who are the least likely to leave. This was a tragedy waiting to happen and many knew it. The mayor said before Katrina hit that this is the "one" that we have always feared. The good people of America have donated hundreds of millions of dollars so far. The U.S. government has appropriated tens of billions and other countries have made pledges of monetary assistance.

There are natural disasters on this planet every year including droughts, famines, floods, volcano eruptions, tornados, tidal waves (tsunami), earthquakes, wildfires, mudslides, avalanches, etc. To think that the U.S. is somehow immune from nature's wrath would be naive. When the "big one" hits California, it may dwarf this disaster. but people continue to flock to that location.

What the victims of Hurricane Katrina need is help not criticism of the President. At least with a hurricane there is some advance warning to get away. Many of the other natural disasters I listed above give little or no warning. I believe that New Orleans will never again be as large a city. I feel the worst for the children and pets who were not evacuated because their parents decided to ride out the "approaching" cat 5 storm. I am a grown man, but I cry everytime I watch the suffering of those people and pets on the news.
406. leftyy420
3:42 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
god morning everyone
loks like we stil have no clue where she wil go, but her greatest impact sould be tp the outerbanks. so based un the uncertainty and timming i have elted not to chase her as of right now. that could change but wiht her new track i would experience ts force winds here at my home anyways but thats not certain either. what ever weather we experience here in va i will take pics to but up on my blog for u guys. now all this could change but we will see if i do go chase her or not. in my opinion she willlikely graze the outerbanks and move north befor being forced out to sea. this can all chnage as this is 3-4 days out and up for alot of uncertainty. will be on later today as i have footballl to watch with the wife lol.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
405. salter
3:26 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
turtlehurricane
taco2me61 talked about O MOVING SOUTHANDEAST yesterday
how far do you think she might drift that way?
404. sSnack
3:21 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
Anything going on elsewhere in the tropics?
403. turtlehurricane
3:10 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
i hav updated my blog
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
402. outrocket
2:36 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
JLD..come face me in ALECS blog...do not come to DR MASTERS blog and bash me..what I said was my opinion and in another BLOG .It was not meant for here SO come face me I would love to debate this and SHOW You the facts you cant see...I LIVE ON THAT COAST..I have a right to my opinion..DO YOU?
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11009
401. StormJunkie
2:28 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
I can not believe how unwilling ya'll are to see the igonrance and gross negligence of our Govt. Top to bottom left to right. Not only his fault, but sure was nice for Bush to stay on vacation for 2 days after Katrina made landfall, and I have heard he was playing golf as she was coming ashore. That is not how I want the over paid leaders to react. Bush appointed the Fema director also did he not? The one that managed horses? The left want to forget the mistakes of the mayor and gov, and the right wants you to forget Bush's part in it. Get a grip. Do not let the biased media spin this so that once again no one takes blame for anything.

Know then back to the tropics. O sure likes to sit and spin. I will be glad when she starts to move N as she is still south of Savannah. Not to mention the 3 day forcast and model have all been out to lunch with this one and she is not supposed to start moving till late tomorrow. Pressure has built up to 30.1" in Charleston from 29.95" yesterday so it looks like the ridge blocking her W movement will hold strong for the time being. She may be a fish storm, but we will all have to watch and see.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
400. jldfish
2:28 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
Shera
go back and read outrocket posts and the response

jumping to conclusions?
399. killdevilmax
2:25 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
shoals, They spoke of extending the watch up the coast of NC last night but didn't do it. The 8am advisory said about the same- watch to Cape Lookout. They will probably wait till the next recon comes in and update the models or it starts moving west again. It takes like 5 hrs. to update the models after the jet flies. Until the models get a better concensus no one is out of the woods yet that are in the cone. The cone is huge so it shows the models are struggling with this one. The storm is having a tug of war trying to fight the shear and dry air. It looked like an eye was forming a little while ago, to be ripped apart by the shear. Just wish it would creep a little to the east today and give us the glance rather than the hit.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
398. taco2me61
2:22 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
Good Morning everybody, I see it still almost in the same spot when I went to bed, no maybe a little south of east but still there... I will be glade when she moves on though, where ever she goes...
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3167
397. SAINTHURRIFAN
2:14 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
AMEN QUEEN WHEN STOM SEASON OVER MAYBE THIER MOMS AND DADS WILL GET SOME WORK OUT OF THEM.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 706
396. Sheraqueenofthebeach
2:13 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
We all care about each other here on the underground so please be careful!

As no one truly knows what HURRICANE Ophelia is going to do we all MUST STAY VIGILANT & prepare for the worst! !!!

Do NOT make any plans based on amateur posts on this BLOG. (Other than Dr. Masters)

Remember for those who live in low lying areas or in mobile or manufactured homes.. Hotels are occupied by refugees from the Gulf coast so your regular may be not available.
(DO NOT WAIT TO SEE FLOOD WATER TO DECIDE TO LEAVE)This will also cause more traffic as we scramble to find a safe place to stay. Get provisions early & avoid the rush & empty shelves. Don't for get to fill some water bottles 3/4 full & freeze them as they will help keep you fridge cold longer & then become drinking water that's actually cold. Thanks for your attention Bloggers!

Stay safe & enjoy the weatherUnderground

TRULY... anyone reading this in the potential land-fall areas , or anywhere close.
Please PREPARE NOW.

Thanks
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 3140
395. shoals
2:11 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
Yep KDH, I wonder do they draw straws to see who goes where. I guess with that thing still being stationary who knows but I am surprised about the hurricane watches or lack of! They have mandatory evacuation of Ocracoke now. The track always seems to lean to right so I believe SC is clear anyway. I will keep post as long as I can.
394. weatherguy03
2:10 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
Hey i am in Alec's blog and have never talked politics once..you wanna know why??..because its called the WEATHER UNDERGROUND...lol...
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 589 Comments: 29691
393. Sheraqueenofthebeach
2:08 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
yeah cgables
some went to alec's blog to bash bush and spin conspiracies


I will have you all know, we TALK. NO CONSPIRACIES are spun, but if so, only in jest.

We care about everyone's safety. And Alec's blog is a refuge to those who can't wade through the stuff posted here by few.

Get your story straight jldfish. Don't post if you can't back it up.

Spammingmyselfaswespeak.
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 3140
392. SAINTHURRIFAN
2:03 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
jld fish didnt go to alecs blog to bash bush all i can say is god bless bush there is a few down here that will always bash
republicas a shame they use a disaster for stupid polictical squabbles. the main problem was with state and local gov.especially landreau in no. went to alecs blog because the conversation was monopolized by several indivuals with no idea what is like to have serious storm affect thier area. they want the experience they say, well after the storm they hall-tail it back to thier cozy home to get full experience they need to stay the course the debris cleanup the digging for the dead nopower water or ice . whay makes me upset with lefty and his alter egos they want these to hit. yes be fascinated with them track them learn about but wish them away goodday and remember this isSUNDAY.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 706
391. killdevilmax
2:02 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
yea shoal same up here (KDH) I saw the weather Channel was in Wilmington this morning. They probably don't come down there afraid 12 will wash out. The projected track of Ophelia is worst case for the OBX IMO. What do you think?
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
390. shoals
1:58 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
I live here in Hatteras...overcast, breezy. It has been gusting over 30 for about 24 hrs. I will look at the beach today to see how the waves look. I guess Jim will be showing up in nags head somewhere...wonder why he never comes here ? HA
389. killdevilmax
1:53 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
Hiisborough bay,
I was on here last night and I heard several regulars help him besides you. I don't have time however to waste going back and reposting them.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
388. jldfish
1:45 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
yeah cgables
some went to alec's blog to bash bush and spin conspiracies
we are still on standby for the red cross to open shelters if evacs from SC coast are needed
National Guard convoys were seen yest as well as the power trucks in Florence area
last were still at optcon 3 but hope can stand down later
387. HillsboroughBay
1:41 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
Good morning.
MyBahamas. I helped a fellow in Miami last nite as the "GROUP" were too busy with making sure their precious "'Cane" did not get lost in the ocean.
The Miami storm surprized him as he had gone throug Katrina's hit to So Fl. & lost his roofing & was under a BLUE ROOF! They had posted some Tornado warnings. I went on to Miami Radar & helped him calm down. It apparantly was quite severe & lasted a good 45 min. He was fine in the end but needed someone to talk him through it as he had been traumtized by Katrina's surprizing strength. I think if the guys who live here on this board must do it here rather then their own blog, they need to be sensitive to the needs of others who come here for advice. This I feel is probably the worst thing that could happen here. DR. Masters name is on this blog so it reflects on both his name & WeatherUnderground.
Hope you are ok now & out of the woods for now ( & the rest of the season would be great).

Come visit in the other blog when you can & feel free to email me whenever, I enjoy talking with you.
:)
386. cgableshurrycanegal
1:21 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
jld, LOL, they were all up late last night...
Bahamas, it was NASTY over here last evening, evidently an Oph feeder bander triggered it. Tornadoes reported: one onland, on tony Fisher Island and near the MIA Herald bldg. power out to 11,000...
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
385. jldfish
12:45 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
I guess I killed the discussion
384. jldfish
12:29 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
I guess the nite people are still zzzzing

I need lefty or somebody to look over my shoulder
383. jldfish
12:25 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
mybahamas

I wonder if that was from the upper level low that Steve Gregory was talking about yest
382. mybahamas
12:22 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
Hiya
We had that piece of severe weather from the southern flow of Ophelia last night, like they did in the Miami area. Winds in Nassau went from 9 mph to 25 mpth in an hour around 9 p.m., stayed there with really strong gusts and severe lightning for an hour and went down to calm afterwards all the way to right now at 8 am EDT.
We didn't get any tornado sighting reports last night like in Miami (nor their reported 46mph gusts); but we did get some trees knocked over and, in my house, at least, one really restless toddler.
I hope that things in this region get better tonight and that Ophelia doesn't affect anyone too severely in the future.
381. jldfish
12:21 PM GMT on September 11, 2005
also look at fsu model which still puts it on land
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

380. jldfish
12:17 PM GMT on September 11, 2005

GZ
here in SC they were still talking about shelters being open in Charleston
I guess if u look at the NAM on the models page of WUG you still get a landfall in SC, though that model is not for hurricanes I think , so may be resulting in different predictions from local meteorologists who look at that model
379. GZ
11:57 AM GMT on September 11, 2005
Down here in Wilmington there is still lots of uncertainty. Just to give you an idea of the discrepancy of the local media, the local paper here is saying landfall in Brunswick County, Holden Beach late Monday/early Tuesday, which is south of Wilmington. Our local ABC affiliate is calling it more like Dr Masters, saying it will take a sharp right before it approaches the Cape Fear and head up to the OB. The CBS station is saying Jacksonville, NC for landfall which is north of the city. Outside my house in downtown Wilmington there is little wind, but I just got back from Wrightsville Beach this morning and the winds are kicking up there a bit more.
378. zakelwe
11:47 AM GMT on September 11, 2005
At this rate you are going to need a boat to chase this hurricane/storm :) ( semi joke ).

I think it is going to be a very dmap squib for people expecting anything interesting.

377. icebear7
11:29 AM GMT on September 11, 2005
anyone awake this mornin?

Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
376. icebear7
11:26 AM GMT on September 11, 2005
GFDL is putting her pretty close to my back yard..... what are the canches i should be concerned about possible high winds? (Southern Maine)
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
375. Halon056
7:12 AM GMT on September 11, 2005
Shes starting the turn back southeast that high pressure is starting to take over
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 349
374. leftyy420
7:03 AM GMT on September 11, 2005
Link
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
373. VerticalHeatEngine
6:25 AM GMT on September 11, 2005
thanx...saw it that time!
372. leftyy420
6:22 AM GMT on September 11, 2005
Link
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
371. VerticalHeatEngine
6:18 AM GMT on September 11, 2005
what am i missing? those 10 frames hardly move it at all! maybe i'm just bleary eyed but I don't see the outer banks getting hit at the end of the 10th frame...sorry, pretty sleepy!
370. caneforecaster
6:15 AM GMT on September 11, 2005
Thanks zeenster!

Thanks for letting me know.
369. leftyy420
6:13 AM GMT on September 11, 2005
Link
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
367. Zeenster
6:09 AM GMT on September 11, 2005
New GFS run is out...problems fixed now...thought you'd want to know everyone...looks like Outer Banks NC
366. killdevilmax
6:08 AM GMT on September 11, 2005
Thanks all sleep tight.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
365. StormJunkie
6:07 AM GMT on September 11, 2005
Why do I need to see the African and S. American coast and all of mexico on this wunderground model map? That is just silly.lol.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
364. taco2me61
6:05 AM GMT on September 11, 2005
Good nite all I will be checking what and where she is tomorow, yall have a great nite...
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3167
362. leftyy420
5:58 AM GMT on September 11, 2005
its actually a little east this run from the last one. the last run took her into nc around jacksonville this one just grazes the coast
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
361. Halon056
5:57 AM GMT on September 11, 2005
Looks like in the last few frames the eye was starting to emerge, I know what yall say about the models but, I cant help but notice a southerly shift.....guess we will have to wait for the eclipse to get over with
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 349

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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