Gustav is intensifying again, and headed for Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:20 PM GMT on August 31, 2008

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Gustav is intensifying again, and threatens to bring a destructive storm surge that will offer a significant test to New Orleans' rebuilt levees when it strikes Louisiana on Monday. Gustav tore across Cuba with 150 mph winds last night, but Cuba exacted a heavy toll on the storm. Passage over Cuba allowed wind shear to penetrate into the core of the storm, disrupting the eyewall and cutting the storm's winds by 35-45 mph. However, Gustav's day over the warm Gulf of Mexico has begun to rejuvenate the storm, and the pressure is starting to fall again. At 3:17 pm EDT, the Hurricane Hunters reported a pressure of 957 mb, down 5 mb from the eye report at 9:48 am. Winds at the surface and at the flight altitude of 10,000 feet have not changed significantly since this morning, and still support classifying Gustav as a strong Category 2 hurricane with top winds of 105 mph. However, the winds should start to increase by late tonight in response to the falling pressure.

The satellite appearance of Gustav is steadily improving. Visible satellite loops of Gustav show that the storm has recently assumed a more symmetric appearance, though the heaviest thunderstorms are still just on the south side of the eye. Upper level winds from the south are creating about 15 knots of shear over Gustav, restricting the upper-level outflow on the south side. The 35-mile wide eye is not very distinct, and the Hurricane Hunters reported that the eyewall was missing a chunk on the southeast side. However, the eye was elliptical this morning, and has now assumed a more circular, well-formed appearance.

The outer spiral bands of Gustav are now visible on New Orleans radar, and some rain bands have already affected the Mississippi River Delta region.


Figure 1. Estimated storm surge from NHC's experimental storm surge model. Note that these values will often differ from the latest official NHC forecast, and one should consult the latest text advisory for the most current storm surge information.

The latest track forecast
The latest 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs have shifted slightly west, with a central Louisiana landfall still the most popular solution. The GFDL model, which has all along insisted that Gustav would arrive at the coast a day earlier than the other models, has proven to have the correct timing. We should not be surprised if the center comes ashore as far east as New Orleans, or as far west as western Louisiana, given the current spread in the model tracks. Once Gustav makes landfall, it will slow down, and pose a significant rainfall/flooding threat to Louisiana and Texas. Portions of this region are under moderate to severe drought, so the flooding could have been worse. Only the HWRF model is forecasting that Gustav will drift southwestward back over the Gulf of Mexico after landfall. I am not expecting Gustav to be reborn off the Texas coast late in the week.

The intensity forecast for Gustav
Wind shear has remained in the moderate range (about 15 knots) today, and is forecast by the SHIPS model to decrease to 10 knots tonight. This amount of shear will allow Gustav to intensify. Gustav is moving further away from the upper-level anticyclone that helped it intensify as it approached Cuba, however. Overall, the upper level wind environment is favorable for intensification, but not as favorable as during yesterday's rapid intensification. Gustav has now left the warm waters of the Loop Current, and is over waters of much lower heat content than it has had. The latest 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model forecasts no strengthening, and brings Gustav to shore as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. The latest SHIPS intensity model predicts the same thing. The 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the HWRF shows that Gustav will weaken to a Category 2 hurricane by landfall. Given the recent improvement in Gustav's organization, I believe that the storm has time to intensify into at least a Category 3 hurricane with 125-130 mph winds by landfall. Gustav should not intensify as rapidly as it did when approaching Cuba.

Gustav's storm surge is not likely to breach the New Orleans levees--if they perform as designed
Gustav is a very large storm. Like Katrina, Gustav may carry a larger storm surge to the coast than its wind speeds might suggest. Currently, Gustav's diameter of tropical storm force winds is 340 miles. By landfall, this number is forecast to increase to 360 miles, which would make Gustav 80% as large as Katrina was at landfall. NHC's current storm surge forecast calls for a storm surge of 10-14 feet to the right of where the center of Gustav comes ashore. The latest computer generated storm surge map shows that highest surge will be along the levee system along the east side of New Orleans. Storm surge levels of this magnitude are characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane. The levee system of New Orleans is designed to withstand a Category 3 storm surge. If Gustav intensifies more than the NHC forecast is calling for, there is a significant threat of multiple levee failures in the New Orleans levee system resulting in flooding of portions of the city. However, the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs have shifted their landfall points a bit further west, reducing the odds of a Category 4 storm surge in New Orleans. My best guess is that New Orleans will suffer a Category 2 or 3-level storm surge. The levees will hold with that level of storm surge, if they perform as designed.

Comparing Gustav to "Billion-Dollar Betsy"
Gustav's track and expected intensity at landfall are similar to those of Hurricane Betsy of 1965. Betsy was a strong Category 4 hurricane as it crossed the Gulf of Mexico, which then weakened to a Category 3 at landfall, right where Gustav is predicted to make landfall (Figure 2). Betsy brought a storm surge of up to 15 feet to Louisiana (Figure 3). According to wikipedia, levees for the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet along Florida Avenue in the Lower Ninth Ward and on both sides of the Industrial Canal failed. The flood waters reached the eaves of houses in some places and over some one story roofs in the Lower Ninth Ward. These levee breaches flooded parts of Gentilly, the Upper Ninth Ward, and the Lower Ninth Ward of New Orleans as well as Arabi and Chalmette in neighboring St. Bernard Parish. Seventy-six people died in Louisiana, and "Billion-Dollar Betsy" became the first billion-dollar hurricane ($10 billion in 2008 dollars). As a result of the hurricane, the Army Corps of Engineers was tasked with the job of upgrading the New Orleans levee system to withstand "the most severe
combination of meteorological conditions reasonably expected". As of today, that means protection from a Category 3 hurricane, but no higher.


Figure 2. Track of Hurricane Betsy of 1965.


Figure 3. Simulated maximum storm surge from Hurricane Betsy of 1965, as modeled using the ADCIRC model. Image credit: ADCIRC Development Group.

Links to follow:
New Orleans radar
New Orleans weather

Tropical Storm Hanna
The Hurricane Hunters are flying their first mission into Tropical Storm Hanna, and have found a weak tropical storm with 50 mph winds and a central pressure of 997 mb, according the 1:36 pm EDT eye report. Watching satellite loops of Hanna is kind of like watching a stick caught in turbulent rapids--the atmosphere is extremely chaotic in Hanna's vicinity, and it's tough to follow what is going on. Hanna has moved underneath an upper-level low that is pumping cold, dry air in. Hanna is also experiencing wind shear from the upper-level outflow from Hurricane Gustav. These effects have combined to keep Hanna a weak tropical storm. While Hanna does have a large circulation and some respectable upper-level outflow to the north, heavy thunderstorm activity is limited and is removed from the center.

The track forecast for Hanna
The current steering flow driving Hanna to the west is expected to collapse soon, resulting in a slow, erratic motion or small loop for Hanna. By 4-5 days from now, a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing Hanna to the northwest. Most of the long-range models foresee a landfall along the U.S. East Coast late in the week. The most popular model solution (GFS, GFDL, and HWRF) is a landfall Friday in North Carolina, followed by a track up the East Coast. The UKMET model targets South Florida on Friday, and the NOGAPS and ECMWF models target Georgia/northern Florida on Thursday night.

The intensity forecast for Hanna
Hanna will not be able to intensify significantly over the next two days, due to upper low it is situated under, and the outflow from Hurricane Gustav. By Tuesday, both Gustav and the upper low should be weaker, potentially allowing Hanna to intensify. The GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS intensity models all predict Hanna will be a Category 1 hurricane on Friday. However, due to the uncertain future evolution of Gustav, consider all intensity forecasts for Hanna beyond two days from now low confidence.

Middle Atlantic disturbance, 98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) is located near 22N, 45W, in the mid-Atlantic Ocean. Visible satellite images show that this disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation. However, the disturbance has very little heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to 20 knots of wind shear, and some dry air to the west. Wind shear should remain too high to permit development over the next two days, and is highly uncertain after that, due to the upper-atmosphere interactions occurring with Hanna and Gustav. NHC is giving this system a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. None of the models develop 98L, but Bermuda should keep an eye it.

Cape Verdes Islands disturbance, 97L
A low pressure system near 16N 35W (97L), is a few hundred miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Visible satellite loops show that 97L has a very large closed circulation, but little heavy thunderstorm activity. Dry air on the west side of the storm is getting wrapped into the circulation, interfering with development. Wind shear is a moderate 15 knots, and is expected to stay in the low to moderate range over the next four days. NHC has given this system a high (>50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. Several of the models develop this system, and the storm is expected to pass close to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday.

There are two other impressive African tropical waves lined up behind 97L that are also likely to be a threat to develop once they move offshore Africa this week. The long-range GFS model develops both of these waves.

I'll have a short update tonight, if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters

Beginning of Hurricane Gustav (nisefont)
These are some of the first storm clouds from Hurrican Gustav in southern Ascension Parish
Beginning of Hurricane Gustav
Gustav's first sqall in Key West (BilgeH2OMgt)
It's been raining since morning, but this was the first real squall around 15:30 with reported gusts of 54 mph.
Gustav's first sqall in Key West

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3496. nola70119
9:28 PM GMT on September 02, 2008
Quoting headshaker:
Question: if this is a relative "non-event" (compared to Katrina) for New Orleans, how much will it affect people's decisions next time a major is headed that way?

I've seen in Houston after Rita that a lot of folks assume every storm will turn away from here at the last minute.


Theywill evacuate.....this hit as a tropical storm IMO.....a real hurricane would have been a big problem.
Member Since: June 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1565
3495. nola70119
9:25 PM GMT on September 02, 2008
Gustav was NOT a major hurricane...I don't know how else to say this but there is just nothing on the ground to support that...
Member Since: June 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1565
3494. pfdfirefighter
1:56 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
First death in ascension parish. Someone on I-10 ran into a tree.
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 91
3493. SRQBoogieMan
1:51 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
1st disc of CCRs greatest hits couldn't be more appropriate for this AM....Born on the Bayou, Bad moon risin', who'll stop the rain, have you ever seen rain...great soundtrack for Gus...My prayers to all in his path
Member Since: October 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 36
3492. DaytonaBeachWatcher
1:32 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
new blog
Member Since: June 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1136
3491. Hhunter
1:30 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2974
3490. houstongator
1:28 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Are we looking at a blog hole?

First of the morning...
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 113
3489. WetBankGuy
1:26 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Downtown (Superdome heliport0 Wind 060 @ 9 knots gusting 23. Hearing from blogger embeds of isolated high winds (microbusts?) Geraldo needs a new anemometer
Member Since: September 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 288
3488. NinetyWt
1:25 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Nephew reporting power out in the Tulane area of NO.
3487. CaneHunter031472
1:25 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Well winding down here in MS. Still plenty of 45 mph gust and tornado warnings. Flooding is also a bit of an issue. Piece of cake.
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 202
3486. Tazmanian
1:23 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
236 looks like 99L is on its way too TD 10 i think it will be there be for the day is done wow its looking good
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
3485. CJ5
1:23 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
I had not searched around but to save some time, is the coc of Hanna in the heavy convection or is it still displaced?
Member Since: July 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
3484. Hurricanman
1:23 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
We're getting our windows thoroughly washed here in Baton Rouge.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 122
3483. BlxMS
1:23 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Quick report from Biloxi. Overall, afring pretty well, but given the S LA landfall, not at all unexpected. GOM is over highway 90 but not frighteningly so. This is NOT particularly unusual. Some older houses that were not required to rebuild to new FEMA elevations are approaching taking some (minor amounts) of water. Back Bay has been clearly impacted by the surge and is overflowing but not dangerously so. The old fishing bridge to D'Iberville is still well above the level of the bay. Beach structures rebuilt after K and properly elevated are in no danger of taking water. None of the 40 houses in my neighborhood that were inundated are any immenent danger of flooding. Squalls continue to fly through, but rainfall totals are amzingly low. Don;t belive we've had even any gusts over 40mph at my place. There are some trees down in various points around the County and those are a pain in the a**, but most of these were probably very damaged in K and had just had no excuse for coming down. None of my friends have lost power for more than a minute or two before coming back. Prayers for those in S. LA and a prayer of thanks for being mostly spared here.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 130
3482. Skyepony (Mod)
1:23 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
As for oil & gas forecast, % shut in looks below 40% with 1/2 that being back online in 4 days.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39357
3481. quakeman55
1:22 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Quoting extreme236:


Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB say it's already a tropical storm, in fact the Data T-number (forecast intensity) from TAFB of 3.0 it could be upgraded if they wish to do so.

They'll probably be conservative and keep it as a TD for their first advisory since they don't have HH planes to confirm intensity, just satellite estimates...then if it continues to at least hold its own or improve, then upgrade it to Tropical Storm Ike.

IKE--you ready for your storm? :)
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
3480. icepilot
1:20 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yea, thats what happened.

Storm Surge will usually lag the wind - in some cases by almost 24 hours - the wind drags the water
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 387
3479. extreme236
1:20 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
99L

Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
3478. Skyepony (Mod)
1:19 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
greentortuloni~ A large part along with the hot SST of the 2005 monumental dead zone was due to the oil & chemicals released during the 'canes. From what I understand it was a pretty down played enviromental disaster. No news was put out about what rinsed up out of the gulf stream here on the beaches of east central Fl after either. If there was no rigs out there & surge pulling filth back out to the gulf, this may have been a good thing for the dead zone.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39357
3477. quakeman55
1:18 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Quoting RyanCRG:


I don't see it on NHC's site where did you get that?

Yeah as they said, it's on the Navy site. It won't show up on the NHC site until 11AM EDT since that's their next normal advisory time.
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
3476. Remek
1:17 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Quoting all4hurricanes:

So gustav is no longer Major how can a storm with dropping pressure also drop it's winds


Winds lag several hours behind a pressure rise or fall.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
3475. extreme236
1:17 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Quoting CybrTeddy:
09L.NONAME on Navy Site. Click the ALL button on the main page, 09L will come up.


Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB say it's already a tropical storm, in fact the Data T-number (forecast intensity) from TAFB of 3.0 it could be upgraded if they wish to do so.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
3474. Brillig
1:17 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
On local TV, they have finally (after about an hour) stopped mentioning that Gustav will make landfall any moment now.
Member Since: June 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 408
3473. CybrTeddy
1:17 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Tropical Depression 9
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
3472. headshaker
1:17 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Question: if this is a relative "non-event" (compared to Katrina) for New Orleans, how much will it affect people's decisions next time a major is headed that way?

I've seen in Houston after Rita that a lot of folks assume every storm will turn away from here at the last minute.
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
3471. Tazmanian
1:17 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
236 the SDD site has the T # for TD 9 at 2.5
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
3470. 21N71W
1:16 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Hello All,
Well Hanna is waking up here in the turks and Caicos:
Temperature: 79.0 °F / 26.1 °C
Humidity: 90%
Dew Point: 76 °F / 24 °C
Wind: 30.0 mph / 48 km/hfrom the WSW
Wind Gust: 48.0 mph / 77 km/h
Pressure: 29.36 in / 994.1 hPa
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 180
3469. quakeman55
1:16 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Quoting WxLogic:
T.S. Hanna:

By the way... based on the latest QUICKSAT the center has relocated to the TS Mass.

Link

Expect a new track and of course some updates coming up on the new models after 00Z preferrably. We'll see if the HH to go in there today will validate the new COC.

Looks like some believable 50-55kt wind vectors in there. I expect Hanna to be increased to at least a 65-mph tropical storm on the next advisory.
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
3468. gbTracker
1:16 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Quoting houstongator:
Just watching TWC --- I miss John Hope.


I miss John Hope too.
Member Since: July 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 24
3467. horsebootz
1:16 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Anyone know what its like in Baton Rouge? My nephew had evacuated but got called back to work. ( he works in the hospital as a nurse) He was bringing his family with him to the hospital. But we have not heard if he was able to make it back into the city.
3466. CybrTeddy
1:16 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
09L.NONAME on Navy Site. Click the ALL button on the main page, 09L will come up.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
3465. all4hurricanes
1:15 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Quoting IKE:
Breath easier Texas bloggers....latest advisory...Statement as of 8:00 am CDT on September 01, 2008

...Gustav weakens to a category two hurricane...eyewall moving onto
the southeastern Louisiana coast...

So gustav is no longer Major how can a storm with dropping pressure also drop it's winds
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2375
3462. stillwaiting
1:14 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
gustov no longer going to make landfall as a major!!!!!..cat 2 now!!!!
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
3461. CybrTeddy
1:14 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Quoting HurrikanEB:
any one have a link to td9 or 97l?


WHXX01 KWBC 011254
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC MON SEP 1 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE (AL092008) 20080901 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080901 1200 080902 0000 080902 1200 080903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.4N 38.8W 18.5N 41.8W 19.6N 45.0W 20.9N 48.2W
BAMD 17.4N 38.8W 18.2N 41.5W 18.8N 44.4W 19.5N 47.3W
BAMM 17.4N 38.8W 18.3N 41.7W 19.1N 44.7W 19.9N 47.6W
LBAR 17.4N 38.8W 18.1N 42.0W 19.1N 45.2W 20.4N 48.9W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 54KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080903 1200 080904 1200 080905 1200 080906 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.7N 51.8W 26.9N 59.2W 30.4N 62.9W 31.6N 64.9W
BAMD 20.0N 50.4W 21.1N 57.1W 21.3N 63.6W 20.6N 70.4W
BAMM 20.7N 50.9W 22.5N 58.0W 23.8N 64.1W 23.8N 70.0W
LBAR 21.7N 52.3W 25.0N 58.0W 26.5N 62.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 61KTS 67KTS 66KTS 65KTS
DSHP 61KTS 67KTS 66KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.4N LONCUR = 38.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 17.5N LONM12 = 35.0W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 32.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Last time im posting it, thats offical data from the NHC, it always means that a TD has formed. You don't get it unless theres a Tropical Cyclone
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
3460. clwmark
1:14 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
He has slowed his forward NW speed and looks like he is trying to take a Westerly jog right now.Link
3459. Brillig
1:13 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Quoting indianrivguy:


well I totally agree that it is becoming disorganized, but I stand by my extrapolation.. IMO, this storm has NOT changed track to this point to the west. It is still traveling in a relativly straight line as I posted it..


Oh, I agree. I made a comment to that effect when I noticed both HH planes veering to the left to find their COCs.
Member Since: June 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 408
3458. YogiNav
1:13 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Quoting Pensacolalurker:


Seems like it was the next day after landfall the failure/flooding began the last time. Do we have access to the storm surge data then compared to Gustav so far for this time frame?


Real-time tide gauges on line at Link . Click on the location and select preliminary data from box. Katrina report from NHS has surge data, but no time series graphs. Will look further.
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 153
3457. extreme236
1:12 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Quoting RyanCRG:


I don't see it on NHC's site where did you get that?


On the NHC model page.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
3456. houstongator
1:12 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Just watching TWC --- I miss John Hope.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 113
3455. IKE
1:12 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
New Orleans NAS, Louisiana (Airport)
Updated: 6 min 32 sec ago
Rain
79 °F
Rain
Wind: 46 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 72 mph

Pressure: 29.23 in (Falling)
Visibility: 2.5 miles
Elevation: 0 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
3454. RyanCRG
1:11 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Tropical Depression 9 has formed in the Tropical Atlantic.


I don't see it on NHC's site where did you get that?
3453. HurrikanEB
1:11 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
any one have a link to td9 or 97l?
Member Since: May 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1344
3452. Skyepony (Mod)
1:11 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
mimic~ a better look at the surface..(not for dial up)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 223 Comments: 39357
3451. WxLogic
1:11 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
T.S. Hanna:

By the way... based on the latest QUICKSAT the center has relocated to the TS Mass.

Link

Expect a new track and of course some updates coming up on the new models after 00Z preferrably. We'll see if the HH to go in there today will validate the new COC.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
3450. A4Guy
1:11 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Morning all! what a busy Atlantic!

What is the likelihood of hanna relocating the center under the deep convection? those cloud tops are amazing!
Member Since: June 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 668
3448. Remek
1:09 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Quoting skfnek:
hmm...watching NOLA tv on this linkLink
and these guys are saying the eye is moving west.....NOT coming onshore.......

anyone else seeing the same?

just wondering since we are in Galveston........thanks guys.....

Keep an eye on the NWS radar:

New Orleans long range
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
3447. twostars
1:10 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
thanks Storm, I did't think that sounded right. they are putting so much information out they probably misspoke. That is why I referred to you.
3446. Brillig
1:10 PM GMT on September 01, 2008
Quoting clwmark:
Geraldo could find hurricane force winds in Topeka if it would make for a good story.


He just needs to open his mouth to find hurricane force winds.
Member Since: June 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 408

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