Hurricane Ophelia likes where she's at

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:07 PM GMT on September 08, 2005

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The Air Force Hurricane Hunters sent in an eye report at 4pm EDT where they observed a central pressure of 985 mb and a surface winds of 70 knots (80 mph). Maximum flight level winds were 66 knots at 5000 feet altitude. This data suggests that Ophelia is at hurricane strength. The maximum temperature in the eye was 5C warmer than just outside the eye, which is a respectable temperature difference typical of a weak Category 1 hurricane. Doppler radar wind estimates also indicate hurricane force winds.


Figure 1. Wind speed estimates from the Melbourne Doppler radar. The dark red color on the south side of the eyewall indicate winds in excess of 64 knots (minimum hurricane force) blowing away from the radar. Because the radar uses the Doppler effect to measure wind speed, it cannot tell what the wind speed is when the winds don't have a component of motion towards or away from the radar, Thus, winds on the east and west eyewall are coded white (a speed of zero towards the radar) and the winds on the north eyewall are coded blue (blowing towards the radar).

Long range radar out of Melbourne FL, shows that a partial eyewall of 15 miles diameter, open to the northeast, has formed. The Hurricane Hunters also confirmed this. Satellite images show improving upper-level outflow in all quadants, and a modest increase in the size of the storm. Outflow and deep convection are still restricted on the southeast side, where strong winds of 10 - 15 knots continue to shear the storm.

No important changes to the environment have occurred or are forecast to occur, and Ophelia should continue to slowly intensify and sit in place the next 24 hours. After that, a slow northeast motion is likely as a weak trough pushes off of the east coast.

Jeff Masters

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1080. windy1111
3:22 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
anybody know why the nhc has not updated since 5a.m.? Here in Deltona we are watching pretty close..
Member Since: September 2, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
1079. dashwildwood
2:21 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
the up and out of maria and nate is hard to ignore but maria plowed the path for nate to follow but since nate has exited so quickly the path for the weakness left by nate will begin to fill in and make it hard to nearly impossible for ophelia to escape
1078. stormydee
2:20 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
new blog in...
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
1077. icebear7
2:16 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
ok, cause i'm seeing the up and out movement of the other two storms and it just seems like this would go that way too.... but thats just cause i don't particularly trust the models changing all the time and adjusting every couple hours
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
1076. dashwildwood
2:14 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
ice a va landfall would be very tough just because it will be hard for it to get far enough north before the high builds in behind the ridge
1075. nash28
2:14 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
Can anyone tell if she has become stationary again? It looks as though she has put on the brakes after looking at IR.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1074. nash28
2:12 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
I believe it will come in between Melbourne and Daytona and trek WNW across the state. I believe if she weakens and stays weaker, there is a much higher chance of her taking more of a WSW jog coming out of the loop as opposed to the NNW jog. This really depends on how strong the high becomes when it builds back and the strength of the storm as well.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1073. EllistonVA
2:11 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
That last link was just to the "I wanna stop a hurricane" stuff. Below is a link to the whole FAQ. For newbies like me, it was at least an interesting read on how hurricanes work:

Full NOAA FAQ
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
1072. icebear7
2:11 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
i don't suppose it could go east a bit, loop around a few times then north and get at VA?
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
1071. stormydee
2:11 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
will she be a hurricane at 11AM?
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
1070. collinsfarm
2:11 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
hi all, anything happening further out in the atlantic that may interact with opheilia later next week?
Member Since: September 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1354
1069. dashwildwood
2:09 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
zane the outer banks are still possible but i dont think the storm will be able to get that far north after a loop because it will most liklely be driven wnw or just north of west with the high sitting either to its north or northeast
1068. EllistonVA
2:07 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
Some "easy to read" info on past attempts to alter hurricanes:

NOAA FAQ
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
1067. HurricaneZane
2:06 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
nash--Where is Florida do you think? It seems our weather guys are all breathing a sigh of relief to everyone.
1066. HurricaneZane
2:04 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
dash... looking like the outerbanks, huh?
1065. nash28
2:03 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
That track looks like the hurricanealley.net track, which I put no faith in. I'm telling you, the Carolinas are too far north. I really believe this is a Florida storm next week.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1064. dashwildwood
2:02 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
MRF this mornings run of the MRF shows the trof leave ophelia behind and an expected loop very well
1063. icebear7
2:00 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
doing a loop
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
1062. richandcoup
1:59 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
pressure down to 983!?
1061. Halon056
1:51 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
Link
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 349
1060. Halon056
1:51 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
She sure as heck aint movin North anymore....
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 349
1059. HurricaneZane
1:50 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
halon.. send that link again.. it didn't work for me. thx
1058. Halon056
1:50 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
I think the loop is already starting to occur, due to the last loop i sent out...
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 349
1057. dashwildwood
1:48 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
ice, she COULD be wiped out to sea but personally i believe that is unlikely because the trof isnt going to be all that strong since the storm is so far south as well as the quick exit of nate will allow the ridge to build out in the bermuda area faster....the only way it could go out to sea would be if it were to accelerate very quickly which doesnt seem to be happening
1056. gnshpdude
1:47 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
Lefty,

looks like I was correct about some shear and dry air getting sucked in. Don't know how long it will last.
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 121
1055. Halon056
1:46 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
check this loop set it up for about 20 frames, and run it... you will see where the low ends and the high is starting to build back in...Link
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 349
1054. dashwildwood
1:46 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
yea basically zane
1053. icebear7
1:45 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
don't suppose its going to wipe her off to sea?
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
1052. HurricaneZane
1:44 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
okay, got it, the path of least resistance, right?
1051. Halon056
1:43 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
does anybody notice the more easterly track??? might do its loop early
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 349
1050. dashwildwood
1:43 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
zane is believe its because the high pressure has started to split as well she is feeling the effects of the trof
1049. icebear7
1:43 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
its like the THING that wouldn't shut up
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
1048. HurricaneZane
1:42 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
Gosh Hillsborough... your like the bully on the playground.
1047. OSHNBLU
1:41 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
I remember them seeding hurricanes in the opes they woud rain themselves our prior to landfall. And yes, It was in the 50's and 60's.
Member Since: July 13, 2005 Posts: 117 Comments: 5214
1046. CybrTeddy
1:41 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
Sport,
Thank you for that update didn't realize Ophelia had weakened this morning. lol So I guess the BAM's would handle her well now. She is struggling for sure.
I was basing things on her being a stronger storm.
Regardless, she is way to close to the coast for comfort.
Jen
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24148
1045. HurricaneZane
1:39 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
Anyone know why the track has shifted north? Is it because of a ridge the errods faster, pulling her north or something?
1044. hodgedog
1:38 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
If you RTFA you would know that seeding and nukeing are theories of stopping a hurricane . Not a conspiracy as shera would put it.
1042. hurricanecrab
1:35 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
A "seeding" project was attempted, in the 50's I believe, but the results, if there were any, we found to be unmeasurable. All kinds of propaganda spun off of that and accounts for much of the current stuff AKA conspiracy theories.

Studies are still being done on computer models, but it's difficult to sift through the information on the internet to find real data vs. manufactured.
Member Since: January 20, 2005 Posts: 64 Comments: 9241
1041. stormydee
1:35 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
may be a cane again by 11AM, what do u think?
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
1040. sporteguy03
1:34 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
JenD,
No that is incorrect BAMM models are for "shallower" systems which Ophelia is becoming, the weaker Ophelia becomes the more reliable the BAMM model could be espesicially the BAMS or Shallow model, right now Ophelia is stalling yet again, I do have much faith in the forecast track unless this storm really picks up some speed meandering or movement to 6MPH is not much.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5342
1039. Sheraqueenofthebeach
1:30 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
Conspiracy theorists, icebear.
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 3140
1038. icebear7
1:23 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
....so, why do people insist that a storm was "seeded" every now and then?
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
1037. icebear7
1:14 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
Yeah, i found this articleSeeding& Nuking


it does sound silly....
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
1036. Jedkins
1:11 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
I think with a storm as this NO model is reliable ok.
1035. Jedkins
1:10 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
Cloud seeding is stupid do not try to play with the natural cycle,it could prove extremely bad....
1034. Jedkins
1:08 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
Well put it this way,if the high builds back it cannot go straight into the ridge so I believe florida or NC,whic make since becuase GA and SC rarely have landfalls anyway.
1033. hurricanecrab
1:06 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
Link failure - try this: Link

Member Since: January 20, 2005 Posts: 64 Comments: 9241
1032. hurricanecrab
1:02 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
icebear - there's an article in Scientific American that relates to Hurricane seeding.... Link
Member Since: January 20, 2005 Posts: 64 Comments: 9241
1031. CybrTeddy
12:48 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
Goodmorning all!!~
It's my understanding that the BAMM models are NOT considered reliable at this time because it handles stronger systems better. So the BAMM's are really the only one right now that throw Opehlia back at Florida (collective sigh of relief) No one knows still where Ophelia will call home I see they extended the strike probablility map NORTH which is a good sign as well for Florida. I personally do not want to go through another hurricane I had enough of that with Isabel in 2003.
JenD

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24148
1030. icebear7
12:48 PM GMT on September 09, 2005
any links that anyone can give me about the silica thing would be cool....


also, how many times do we think Oph will go from cane to trop and back to cane in the next 48-72 hours? or should we expect a steady increase in strength eventually...?
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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