Invest 98L fails to develop, as predicted

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:49 AM GMT on July 31, 2008

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The tropical wave that recently moved off the coast of Africa has died down and failed to develop, just as I predicted yesterday. I know that some of you were getting a bit excited at the prospect of tracking another system, but it is rare to see development this close to Africa. Convection is all but gone from Invest 98L at this time. However, we will continue to monitor the system for any signs of development, however unlikely they may be. The circulation remains relatively healthy for an Africa wave, but conditions are not favorable for convective development. The window has basically passed on this system as it is now encountering increasingly cooler waters.

20080731.0245.goes12.x.ir1km.98LINVEST.25kts-1007mb-169N-232W.100pc.jpg
Invest 98L - Infrared satellite imagery

There are no other signs of development in the Atlantic at this time. We are still about a month or so away from the peak of the season so there is likely plenty of 'excitement' to come.

Cheers,
Bryan Woods

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1825. pableaux
6:30 PM GMT on August 02, 2008
Has anyone calculated the statistical correlation between (1) Jeff Masters squeezing in as much vacation time as possible in July in anticipation of "a long and severe hurricane season" and (2) the actual length & severity of that hurricane season?
1824. kdav
7:44 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
new blog
1823. kdav
7:42 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
the gfdl basically tales it near the bahamas as well. doesnt develop i though.
1822. kdav
7:36 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
anyone notice thatw ave just off africa. it has stayed strong throughout the day and is impressive.
1821. tornadofan
7:26 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
new blog
Member Since: April 5, 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345
1819. extreme236
7:24 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Quoting CybrTeddy:
236, did you notice the blob with a bit of a Circulation off the Carolina coast? Posted some images of it. and that CV wave looks to have some promise, I saw it there yesterday.


Its probably subtropical, perhaps non-tropical right now since it formed form that trof. Decent convection but has a hybrid appearance.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1818. Stormchaser2007
7:23 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
CMC has 99L out over the Bahamas in 144 hours.....Also the GFS and CMC show a TS come over the CV islands around the same time.


GFS TS over CV....
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
1817. fire831rescue
7:23 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
I wonder if what the CMC developes in the GOM could head straight back into MS. You know, kinda like Georges did in 97.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 1807
1816. CybrTeddy
7:22 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
236, did you notice the blob with a bit of a Circulation off the Carolina coast? Posted some images of it. and that CV wave looks to have some promise, I saw it there yesterday.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23505
1815. Stormchaser2007
7:21 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Quoting stormdude77:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Anyone notice the area over the islands? Ive been traveling since 9am and I haven't looked at really anything today....



Of course I've noticed it, it's right over me, LOL...


ROFL that was my first thought when I was looking at it....lol I didn't know you were here! Good to see you Ryan...
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
1814. extreme236
7:20 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
I've noticed there aren't any 18Z runs on 99L
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1813. stormdude77
7:19 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Anyone notice the area over the islands? Ive been traveling since 9am and I haven't looked at really anything today....



Of course I've noticed it, it's right over me, LOL...
1812. extreme236
7:18 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
1807.

Still ITCZ related I believe...if it emerges from the ITCZ it has some potential.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1811. Skyepony (Mod)
7:18 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
CMC (scroll right, click fwd) is back on board with the Gulf of Mexico gloom & doom. The front of the trough is dipping so low as it hits the Atlantic, like it's bound to get cut off. There's that T- wave that was over Hispanolia yesterday moving in that direction. LA maybe sweating it in 48hrs with a system forming just offshore with Texas looking at a possible landfall in 4-5 days.. I hate to say it before there's even a thought of a LLC but the solution makes alotta sense given the ingredients.

CMC's solution for 99L~ I see as a real possibility. Definate bad seed there, spinning up & hanging on in unfavorable conditions. The dry air should keep it weak & westbound for now. Ones with that much vigor, choked in dry tend to shake out the sand & dry air after the Atlantic journey. I'd like to see the current circulation survive most the way across or improve before speculating too much more.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37195
1810. extreme236
7:17 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
The system south of CV Islands is the one we saw over Africa behind 98L that fizzled that is now re-incarnated as 99L. If it persists its worth watching for TC development...99L should pull away from this new disturbance and keep it from interfering with it.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1809. Chiggy007
7:17 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
If you look at the clouds just north of the "biggest" convection I see a slight anti-clockwise turn..! Or are my eyes deceiving which can happen if you look at these things long enough..HAHA!!
1807. Stormchaser2007
7:16 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Anyone notice the area over the islands? Ive been traveling since 9am and I haven't looked at really anything today....

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
1806. HurricaneBob5
7:15 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Thats the one I been asking about the past two days, been watching that one myself.
1805. extreme236
7:13 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
If this disturbance persists it might warrant being put in the TWO.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1804. stormdude77
7:12 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Quoting Chiggy007:
What do everyone think about the blob of convection south of Cape Verde? It's been holding it pretty well (too well) and doesn;t seem part of the ITCZ!!
Is there any hint of circulation there? And will it develop a low pressure as it traverses west....!? Just curious...


Yeah, I've noticed that area as well...satellite imagery doesn't show much rotation, however, convection has persisted for 6-12 hours, so maybe it's a new Twave?
1803. Chiggy007
7:11 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Stormchaser2007:

Yes, that one! But that image is about 6 hours old! It looks much healthier right now! May be there is nothing in it BUT enough convection to keep me interested right now...!?
1802. GoodOleBudSir
7:11 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Member Since: July 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 261
1801. extreme236
7:10 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Nice convection

Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1800. Stormchaser2007
7:08 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
1799. extreme236
7:07 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Quoting Chiggy007:
What do everyone think about the blob of convection south of Cape Verde? It's been holding it pretty well (too well) and doesn;t seem part of the ITCZ!!
Is there any hint of circulation there? And will it develop a low pressure as it traverses west....!? Just curious...


I noticed that area...it moved off Africa about 24-30 hours ago or so.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1798. Stormchaser2007
7:07 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Quoting Chiggy007:
What do everyone think about the blob of convection south of Cape Verde? It's been holding it pretty well (too well) and doesn;t seem part of the ITCZ!!
Is there any hint of circulation there? And will it develop a low pressure as it traverses west....!? Just curious...



This the one your talking about?
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
1797. Chicklit
7:06 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Here ya go, Pottery...more rain!
(NHC 2 PM) THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADE WINDS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS FOUND OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND ITCZ CONVECTION NEAR TRINIDAD. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N88W. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
... A TUTT OR STRING OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH LOW CENTERS AT 34N21W...32N36W...27N50W...AND 22N79W. IN
THE TROPICS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 18N51W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 18N24W. EXPECT... CONVECTION TO INCREASE OVER THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AS THE EMBEDDED LOW CENTER GOES OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11144
1796. StormSurgeon
7:05 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Mobile is a big sultry and soggy also.

Link
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
1795. Chiggy007
7:04 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
What do everyone think about the blob of convection south of Cape Verde? It's been holding it pretty well (too well) and doesn;t seem part of the ITCZ!!
Is there any hint of circulation there? And will it develop a low pressure as it traverses west....!? Just curious...
1794. Patrap
7:02 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Gulf of Mexico (Updated every ~10-15 mins.)Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
1793. stormdude77
7:01 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Quoting HurricaneMyles:
Quoting fran0made0me:
99L is just now crossing the 26c isotherm, and slowly increasing SSTs at or above 26.5 lie ahead. These might be a little more helpful. At least 26c-28c will certainly not be hurtful, as was the 23-24c 98L found itself over. What is really holding the low level swirl back from doing anything more right now, is the extremely dry environment it finds itself in, and this does not look to be changing any time soon. Its best hope in the near term would be to have a fortuitous healthy burst of convection that just envelops it some, and offering a little bit of a cocoon in an otherwise hostile world in which to grow again.Given that in its weakened state it is now on a mostly west heading, the longer it doesn't really ramp up, but just barely holds in there, the greater the risk it pulls off a recovery closer to land, and doesn't recurve in time, if at all.


I hope you're the person who posted that at flhurricane.com.


LOL...
1792. Chicklit
7:00 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
FROM THE 2 PM NHC DISCUSSION:

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO SE TEXAS PRODUCING 10-15 KT SLY FLOW. THE SRN GULF S OF 25N HAS MOSTLY FAIR SKIES. TWO AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 88W-91W...AND FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 83W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. THE NET RESULT IS ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11144
1791. Patrap
6:59 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Boomers here last Hour..

80 degrees Dewpoint will do that


NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
1790. HurricaneMyles
6:58 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Quoting fran0made0me:
99L is just now crossing the 26c isotherm, and slowly increasing SSTs at or above 26.5 lie ahead. These might be a little more helpful. At least 26c-28c will certainly not be hurtful, as was the 23-24c 98L found itself over. What is really holding the low level swirl back from doing anything more right now, is the extremely dry environment it finds itself in, and this does not look to be changing any time soon. Its best hope in the near term would be to have a fortuitous healthy burst of convection that just envelops it some, and offering a little bit of a cocoon in an otherwise hostile world in which to grow again.Given that in its weakened state it is now on a mostly west heading, the longer it doesn't really ramp up, but just barely holds in there, the greater the risk it pulls off a recovery closer to land, and doesn't recurve in time, if at all.


I hope you're the person who posted that at flhurricane.com.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
1789. CybrTeddy
6:57 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Quoting fran0made0me:
Thanks Cybr Teddy do you think it has time to do anything tropical or is it cold core? (last question I promise).


Cold Core AKA Subtropical.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23505
1788. fran0made0me
6:55 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Thanks Cybr Teddy do you think it has time to do anything tropical or is it cold core? (last question I promise).
1787. stormdude77
6:55 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Quoting extreme236:
1745 dvorak position estimate shows that 99L has moved 0.4 degrees south and 1.5 degrees west over the past 6 hours since the previous dvorak position estimate.


Well, the further south it goes, the warmer SSTs get...
1786. CybrTeddy
6:54 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Quoting fran0made0me:
That area off the Carolina coast is it a low and at the surface? Also what direction does anyone see it going in? Thanks.


Slowly heading east, it looks to me a Low is forming as it cuts off from the trough.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23505
1785. captainhunter
6:52 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Be sure to give us a full account Press. Umm...what you remember of it.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 430
1784. extreme236
6:51 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Some thunderstorms over the center...still limited convection.

Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1783. fran0made0me
6:50 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
That area off the Carolina coast is it a low and at the surface? Also what direction does anyone see it going in? Thanks.
1782. extreme236
6:50 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
1745 dvorak position estimate shows that 99L has moved 0.4 degrees south and 1.5 degrees west over the past 6 hours since the previous dvorak position estimate.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1781. GoodOleBudSir
6:49 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Quoting presslord:
1775...very true...he can fly an airplane...but I can't get him to remember to wear a dadgummed belt to mass....think I'll take a handful of Xanax to round out the tequila...


LOL....have fun!!
Member Since: July 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 261
1780. presslord
6:47 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
1775...very true...he can fly an airplane...but I can't get him to remember to wear a dadgummed belt to mass....think I'll take a handful of Xanax to round out the tequila...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
1779. hurricanehanna
6:44 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Glad to hear the good news Pat!
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3481
1778. Patrap
6:44 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
He can Borrow the Suit..But I dont think he has time to Digest and Practice the Tutorial..
Its kinda Long.
LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
1777. Orcasystems
6:44 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
Quoting presslord:
my 17 year old son got his pilot's license 2 weeks ago...I'm goin' up with him this afternoon...How drunk do you think I can get in the next 90 minutes?


Ummm very??
Actually.. stay stoned cold sober.. a good scare might do you some good.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1776. 7544
6:42 PM GMT on August 01, 2008
looks like the pr wave now staring to gain convection again now n of pr heading to the bahamas isnt the sheer pretty low in the area like 5 to 10 k thanks
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6676

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.