Good Mourning everyone an area of low pressure in association with a slow westward moving tropical wave has become better organized in the last 24 hours. Convection that has waned overnight has increased on the eastern part of the system. There is also a another cluster of thunderstorms to the west of the storm but should have little influence on 99L outside of attracting it west a little quicker. Surface observation and buoy data suggest that the pressure has dropped to 1006 mb has at around 14.7 N 75.5 W. The NHC currently gives it a 70% chance of development which is a fair amount of odds. An aircraft reconnaissance is scheduled for 2pm investigation this afternoon. Currently wind shear around this system is low 5-15 kts. This is forecast to continue thru Tuesday with a slight increase as it come in contact with trough. Sea Surface temperatures are plenty warm to support the system and it possible we could see some quick intensification if it develops.
Updated: 2:02 PM GMT on October 21, 2012
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