2013 Hurricane Season ; Another Active Season to Come?

By: HurricaneDean07 , 3:31 AM GMT on February 07, 2013

Share this Blog
13
+

2013 Hurricane Season Outlook
Hey Everyone! Its been awhile since ive been on the blog, making entries and such, Just wanted to post up a quick blog about the 2013 season in my eyes.

The 2013 season appears to be primed and set to be another above average season as the El Nino event that was forecasted to persist through Spring has withered away and has been replaced by a cold neutral. The season is Still uncertain on Track, but some good ideas toward what might happen are in the paragraph below.

Outlook
With a cold neutral, or La Nina likely to be in place through most of the 2013 season, it is to be noted that this will inturn, encourage a decrease in Eastern Pacific Equatorial convective blowups, that tend to cause Shear in the Western portion of the Atlantic Basin. This will allow an additional 3-4 storms to form more than likely, as well as the cooler water causing higher pressures than average to build over the Eastern pacific basin which will tend to prevent storm formation in this region, and push more of the tropical energy into the Atlantic.
The SST's are already hinting at a similar set up to 2004/2005/2010 (All Hyperactive and/or Destructive seasons) because the Surface Temps are In a Positive Atlantic Tripole, which is when the Main Development Region's SST's are above average, and the Subtropics SST's are below average which cause rising air, and more High pressure. This would inturn cause the focus of energy to stay in the Tropics.

Predictions:
A more active Cape Verde season through Peak portions of the season, these storms will tend to be weaker due to dryer air, but will allow them to make their way west into regions where the storms only option is to make landfall, storms will also likely become stronger during that time due to above average temperatures over the Main Development Region. The climatological pattern (Neutral-La Nina) Means that there will likely be a lack of a strong monsoon occuring in the West CONUS which will only encourage High Pressure to build there, this means that Texas will likely be protected this year if this pattern were to come to fruition. This pattern described would put the Central-Eastern Gulf Coast and Southeastern Coast at risk because the weakness would be forced to set up around this area, and would cause a "Capping" High Pressure system to set up over the Northeastern part of North America, which would only give the storms two options... If they form far enough east, it would result in an easy way out to sea, but most that form closer will head for Central America under the influence of the High Pressure system set-up over the Southwest, or they would be drawn north from the Caribbean to visit people in the Central-East Gulf Coast.

Pre-season Numbers (Prior to April Issue of CSU's)
15-18 Named Storms
8-11 Hurricanes
3-6 Major Hurricanes

I will have another update in April when CSU makes their predictions...

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 17 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

17. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:33 AM GMT on April 09, 2013
HurricaneDean07 has created a new entry.
16. Andrebrooks
6:09 PM GMT on March 25, 2013
I think this hurricane season will be active.Above average water temperatures,less wind shear,and less dry air.There will be gulf coast and east coast landfalls.I'm predicting 16-20 storms,10-14 hurricanes,and 6-10 major hurricanes.
More info look at the:
Link
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 951
15. Grothar
5:17 AM GMT on February 17, 2013
My thinking exactly. Good blog.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23739
14. HurricaneDean07
2:43 AM GMT on February 08, 2013
Quoting Astrometeor:
I have seen tropical storms at least as far as my state of Tenn. (katrina)

Ike Made it to Missouri/Illinois.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
13. Astrometeor
2:41 AM GMT on February 08, 2013
I have seen tropical storms at least as far as my state of Tenn. (katrina)
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 8295
12. wxchaser97
2:36 AM GMT on February 08, 2013
Quoting HurricaneDean07:


I wish I remembered that, but I was born just a little under a year later.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7890
11. HurricaneDean07
2:34 AM GMT on February 08, 2013
Quoting wxchaser97:

Hey, water temps are running above average ;)

Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
10. wxchaser97
2:29 AM GMT on February 08, 2013
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I've heard Great Lakes shear is way below average for this time of year :)

Hey, water temps are running above average ;)
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7890
9. MAweatherboy1
2:27 AM GMT on February 08, 2013
Quoting wxchaser97:
How about some hurricanes for Michigan :P

I've heard Great Lakes shear is way below average for this time of year :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7302
8. HurricaneDean07
2:26 AM GMT on February 08, 2013
Quoting wxchaser97:
How about some hurricanes for Michigan :P

Sounds good to me if it means my area is saved this season, just kidding by the way.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
7. wxchaser97
2:25 AM GMT on February 08, 2013
How about some hurricanes for Michigan :P
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7890
6. ILwthrfan
1:42 PM GMT on February 07, 2013


If that band of cooler water SST anomalies over the central Atlantic continues any into the season, I would assume that would help play a factor in increasing the likelihood of rising air occurring in the Caribbean would it not?

What were some of the water anomalies present over the Atlantic in the spring of 2005?
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1403
5. KoritheMan
4:20 AM GMT on February 07, 2013
I demand one or two hurricanes strike my area, or at least areas nearby. I have plans to quit Walmart and go chase this summer, and the season better not disappoint.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19135
4. allancalderini
3:45 AM GMT on February 07, 2013
Maybe a Central American year.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3707
3. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:40 AM GMT on February 07, 2013
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Not from what Im looking at, from what it appears might set up, is a similar to what 2005 brought to the table. Read what my blog says again, and then look at a map of 2005's season, it matches up.


that's why I said no strike for NE again... but "please" because there could always be a chance
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
2. HurricaneDean07
3:37 AM GMT on February 07, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Pre-season Numbers (Prior to April Issue of CSU's)
15-18 Named Storms
8-11 Hurricanes
3-6 Major Hurricanes

No northeast threat again please....

Not from what Im looking at, from what it appears might set up, is a similar to what 2005 brought to the table. Read what my blog says again, and then look at a map of 2005's season, it matches up.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:36 AM GMT on February 07, 2013
Pre-season Numbers (Prior to April Issue of CSU's)
15-18 Named Storms
8-11 Hurricanes
3-6 Major Hurricanes

No northeast threat again please....
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869

Viewing: 17 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page

About HurricaneDean07

I got an interest from weather sitting in the living room watching the weather channel with my Grandpa, I've been hooked to tracking storms ever since

Local Weather

Overcast
73 °F
Overcast