Atlantic Basin ready for Take-off.

By: HurricaneDean07 , 11:15 PM GMT on July 24, 2012

Share this Blog
4
+

Intro
After almost a month of pure quiet in the Atlantic Basin, it appears we might begin to pick up in actvity throughout the next two weeks.

Current Atlantic Tropics
A non-tropical frontal low located East-Northeast of Bermuda has began to become less frontal and more Tropical in-nature. The low has continued to organize throughout the day and was tagged "Invest 98L". Though it has waned in convective intensity lately, due to Diurnal Minimum, it was given a 40% chance of developing within the next two days - according to the NHC. Though I do see the odds sitting higher overall at around 50%, the true key to this system becoming Ernesto is for consistency and intensity of 98L. The NHC will watch and wait, just like they did for Hurricane Chris.


Figure 1.
Invest 98L gradually moving out to sea.

In addition to 98L, There is also a vigorous tropical wave fresh from Africa and could be something to watch as it traverses the open Atlantic. Though it's best chances for development are over the next 3 days, there has been no mention by the NHC whether this has a chance for development or not. I believe they're waiting this tropical wave out and seeing how long it will last over the waters south of Cape verde before having to mention it in their Tropical Weather Outlook.
It's a very healthy wave and could easily be tagged an invest at this moment.


Figure 2.
Vigorous East Atlantic Tropical Wave.

Forecasted Atlantic Activity
Lately, some of the gloabl models (Particularly the GFS[American], and NOGAPS) have latched onto the idea of developing a Cape Verde storm from a strong wave currently centered over West-Central Africa. Though consistency has been lacking with the model resolutions, it is still something that needs to be monitored.


_________________________________________________ ___
Current Forecasts: (JULY FORECAST)
13 Named storms
7 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes

Current Atlantic Numbers:
4 Named storms
1 Hurricane
0 Major Hurricanes

Current Eastern Pacific Numbers:
6 Named storms
5 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes

I will have another update later in the week on the developing situation in the tropics...

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 5 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

5. Grothar
11:51 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
All right. Very good analysis. I agree, we should watch that 2nd wave carefully, too!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26010
4. HurricaneDean07
11:32 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
Very. Back to the blog! :)
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
3. wxchaser97
11:26 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
In some ways... Yes. But I didn't like what the GFS was doing with the CV storm last night...
Watching that run got scary at the end seeing a hurricane coming at the US.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
2. HurricaneDean07
11:23 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
In some ways... Yes. But I didn't like what the GFS was doing with the CV storm last night...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1. wxchaser97
11:23 PM GMT on July 24, 2012
Nice blog, good to see things becoming active again.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940

Viewing: 5 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page

About HurricaneDean07

I got an interest from weather sitting in the living room watching the weather channel with my Grandpa, I've been hooked to tracking storms ever since

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
87 °F
Scattered Clouds