Atlantic coming alive: June Activity / Eastern Pacific: Firing up the Engine

By: HurricaneDean07 , 2:50 AM GMT on June 14, 2012

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Atlantic Activity
June has been a quiet one so far. With no activity and no MJO in place there's been no storms to speak of.
As of now... Activity can only ramp up for the coming weeks, as the MJO returns and model guidance becomes alive.

95L? "Chris"?
Currently the models are forecasting a possible formation of a Frontal Low off the east coast that could split from the trough and become "Chris" With in the next 5 days. Though my gut-feeling says the NHC will want strict characteristics to declare it a Storm, due to it not being a threat to the mainland (Unlike Alberto and Beryl, That were forming from the same origin as this system, though they were a potential direct threat toward the U.S. SE coast). Through all these things in the criteria of the storm, It will need to get going very potently and not be like the weak systems that depend on DMAX for many cycles before it gets going. Time will not be on this system's side so it will need to be strong enough to ramp up quick before losing its chances to the trough of Low pressure in the Deep North Atlantic.

96L? "Debby"?
Beyond the 5 day forecast, the models bring our next area of interest into play around day 7. This system is the more practical storm for June. Unlike the past storms that have formed this season, this will be our first system to come from the deep tropics. Currently the models originate in the Northwestern Caribbean and have been very wishy-washy about development. They've basically gone everywhere with the system-(from splitting the low into the Bay of Campeche and the Bahamas; to keeping it together and bringing it up in to the Gulf via the Yucatan) My favorite solution is the more ensemble mean choice which keeps it together, and up into the gulf it goes!
As of right now there is way to much uncertainty with model guidance and forecast.


Eastern Pacific Activity
The Eastern Pacific has just formed its 3rd Tropical Cyclone of the season which is poised to intensify quickly before a landfall into central america in a few days. The storm could intensify into a hurricane before landfall which could result in unprecedented amounts of citizens caught off guard. Warnings will go up as intensity warrants it.

I'll have another update in the coming days, as I monitor these entities.

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5. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:36 AM GMT on June 14, 2012
Thanks for the update.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33576
4. HurricaneDean07
3:07 AM GMT on June 14, 2012
Chances of Getting Chris from the two entities:
70%
Chance of Getting Debby out of the second Entity, if the east coast low forms:
35%
Chances of Getting more than 2 storms before June:
10%
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
3. HurricaneDean07
3:04 AM GMT on June 14, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
I like your discussion a lot, but td 3 is actually forecast to make landfall in Mexico and not in Central America.

The forecast might be altered over the next couple of days, models have shown a possible right hand turn into Central America.
My Definition of central america is the Manzinillo coast , eastward ;)
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
2. allancalderini
3:04 AM GMT on June 14, 2012
sorry it looks like I comment 2 times.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
1. allancalderini
3:00 AM GMT on June 14, 2012
I like your discussion a lot, but td 3 is actually forecast to make landfall in Mexico and not in Central America.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467

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I got an interest from weather sitting in the living room watching the weather channel with my Grandpa, I've been hooked to tracking storms ever since

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