The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season is less than a month away, and we can already conclude this will most likely not be another hyperactive season like the two previously. This season is coming off two La Nina seasons which means the waters are much cooler in the tropical atlantic, and a El Nino is eminent to occur later this year. With these ingredients added to the season its obvious 19 named storms is not achievable. Though the season almost seems like a bust, the pattern, warmth of caribbean and gulf waters, and possible favorability in those areas means are season with many more storms too close for comfort and many areas caught off-guard by an unexpected strong storm. These types of seasons can be dangerous, especially when the Gulf of Mexico is involved. With these conditions in place, possible development of an El Nino at anytime during the season(maybe weak, maybe strong), the season will be much harder to predict than 2010 and 11'. Though it maybe harder to predict I still have an idea to what might happen.
Though the season might be less active, I could see something hurricane-related occur in the U.S. this year, along with possibly some intense storms to watch in the Caribbean/Bahamas/Gulf. This season is most likely going to be a homegrown year with the tropical atlantic cooler than average, and an El Nino possibly hindering deep tropical development. With all this said my numbers are...
14 Named Storms
3 Major Hurricanes
Eastern Pacific Basin
The 2012 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season should be more active than the two previous. Unlike the Atlantic, the Basin is amped up when El Nino conditions come into play. This season should be about average in most cases, and there shouldn't be anything truely special about it.(The Eastern Pacific seasonal averages are 16-9-4). My numbers for this EPAC season are...
15 Named Storms
5 Major Hurricanes
Even if my predictions are way off, one way or another, keep in mind this is a Pre-season prediction(I'll have my first "kickoff" season prediction June 1, 2012).
Just be prepared for a major hurricane to come roaring through area, plan an evacuation route, pack non-parishable foods and goods, along with a weather radio, and also if you have time, board up windows and doors and remove any furniture or items that may be lost in case of flooding or high storm surge.
I'll have a Blog update June 1, 2012 if nothing interesting gives me a reason to blog earlier.