Wisconsin Weather Update for May 31, 2011.

By: HaleStorm , 1:27 PM GMT on May 31, 2011

So you say severe weather is possible this afternoon, eh?

Indeed I do, and so does the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and National Weather Service (NWS).  I was going to write up a nice description of what could happen in eastern Wisconsin in just a few hours, but the NWS put out a nice, brief discussion about itthis morning, so I'll just paste it in below.  And besides, who can argue with government? =)

A cold front over eastern Minnesota early this morning will move east across Wisconsin through mid-afternoon.  This front will interact with a warm and humid air mass to generate scattered thunderstorms.  Enough instability and wind shear will be present to allow some of the thunderstorms to become strong to severe late this morning and early afternoon.  The primary severe weather hazards will be large hail and damaging winds, however isolated tornadoes are possible.

Heavy rainfall will accompany any thunderstorms as well.  The thunderstorms will end across southeast Wisconsin by late afternoon as west winds pull in drier air from the west.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php ?wfo=mkx&storyid=68962&source=0

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk .html 

Today’s Forecast Grade: B

3-Day Forecast Confidence: Medium

Wisconsin Forecast:

Today: Some sunshine early this morning, but clouds return by late morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop early this afternoon, some of which could be severe with damaging winds, hail, and maybe even a tornado thrown in just for added excitement. There's a 30% chance of severe winds and/or hail falling within 25 miles of your house, and a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles. Should see some decreasing clouds later this afternoon and this evening after the squall lines moves through. Still mild and breezy with a high of 82. Chance of rain 75%. 

Raw Model Data: (combined numerical output range from three different NOAA weather models)

Appleton: Highs 77-82.

Madison: Highs 82-84.

Waukesha: Highs 81-82.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta =KATW&sta=KMSN&sta=KUES

Tonight: Mostly clear with diminishing winds. Lows in the lower 50s.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy and cooler. Highs in the lower 70s east-central, mid- to upper 70s south.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy and windy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid- to upper 70s. Chance of rain 50%.

This Weekend’s Outlook:

Conditions: Partly sunny and breezy on Friday, more sunshine and less windy on Saturday, and maybe a storm on Sunday.

High Temperatures: Warm with highs in the 80s expected.

Extended Forecast Confidence: Medium

Weather in the News:

May 22nd Wisconsin Severe Weather Summary - Updated 545 pm May 26th

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php ?wfo=mkx&storyid=68624&source=0

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Wisconsin Weather Update

About HaleStorm

Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences degree from UW-Madison: 1998. Former broadcast Meteorologist for NewsRadio 1310 WIBA in Madison. NWS Storm Spotter.

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