Wisconsin Weather Update for February 11, 2009.

By: HaleStorm , 1:31 PM GMT on February 11, 2009

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Good Wednesday morning!

Weather Synopsis
The forecast for last Monday night and Tuesday was a little interesting. There was some noted weather model discrepancies, particularly with the ETA and AVN weather models. The ETA model was predicting scattered rain showers for all of us early Monday evening and continuing overnight and through much of Tuesday, while the AVN (aviation) model had just a brief rain Monday evening followed by a clearing sky Monday night and Tuesday. My Weather Update forecast went with the ETA model, and when I saw the sun shining brightly Tuesday morning, I knew I bet my money on the wrong horse. Ah well. Such is life as a weather forecaster.

As for today, a strong low pressure system which is developing quite the swath of mid- February severe weather to our south is just barely going to clip Wisconsin. Look for rain showers more numerous the further south and east you live, with scattered light rain showers changing over to light snow late in the day before diminishing again overnight.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/ussatsfc.gif


NowCast: (Source: National Weather Service)
Southern Wisconsin:
Occasional light rain will develop in the Janesville...Beloit... Elkhorn...Racine and Kenosha areas between 630 am CST and 830 am CST. Rainfall will remain light...less than one tenth inch. Occasional light rain may reach the Milwaukee...Waukesha...Jefferson and Watertown areas between 8 am CST and 10 am CST. The heaviest rains will be in the early to mid afternoon.
http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=MKX


Today’s Forecast Grade: C

Wisconsin Forecast:
Today: Cloudy and breezy. Rain showers during the day southeast. Scattered rain showers during the day south-central, and scattered light rain showers developing late in the day east-central. Rain may change over to light snow late. High of 39 central, lower 40s south. Chance of precip 25% central, 50% south-central, 80% southeast.

Raw Model Data: (combined numerical output range from four different weather models)
Appleton: Highs 37-41. Chance of precip 5-55%.
Madison: Highs 38-46. Chance of precip 15-70%.
Waukesha: Highs 42-44. Chance of precip 60-80%.

Tonight: Cloudy and windy overnight with scattered light snow showers. Little if any accumulation. Lows in the mid- to upper 20s. Chance of measurable snow 30%.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy. Windy in the morning with decreasing winds later in the day. Colder, highs in the lower 30s central, mid- 30s south.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Highs low to mid- 30s.

This Weekend:
Saturday: Cloudy and windy with a brief round of snow showers possible in the morning. Highs 31-36. Chance of snow 40%.
Sunday: Partly sunny, highs 30-35.
Next Week’s Outlook: Looks mostly dry with no big weather systems moving through our region. Temperatures look to stay near-normal with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s for much of the week.


Other City Forecasts:

Today and Tomorrow in Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota: Clouds today, more sunshine tomorrow, highs low to mid- 30s.
http://www.wunderground.com/US/MN/Minneapolis.html
http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/local/USMN0503

Today and Tomorrow in Anna, Illinois: Windy with showers and thunderstorms today, some perhaps severe this morning. Sunshine tomorrow. Highs lower 60s today and mid- 50s tomorrow.
High Wind Warning in effect until 5 PM CST this afternoon...
The leading edge of showers and isolated thunderstorms will extend from near Mount Vernon Illinois to near Paducah Kentucky by 6 am. Gusty winds 35 to 50 mph may occur along the leading edge of the activity as it moves from southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and far western Kentucky. The activity should reach a line from Princeton Indiana to the Land Between The Lakes area in west Kentucky by 7 am. Moderate rains will persist behind the line into southeast Missouri through the early morning hours. Isolated showers will continue ahead of the line.
http://www.wunderground.com/US/IL/Anna.html
http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/local/USIL0033

Today and Tomorrow in League City and Pearland, Texas: Mostly sunny, highs near 70.
http://www.wunderground.com/US/TX/League_City.html
http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/local/USTX0745
http://www.wunderground.com/US/TX/Pearland.html
http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/local/USTX1029

Today and Tomorrow in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina: Partly cloudy during the day, maybe a shower tonight. Breezy, highs upper 60s.
http://www.wunderground.com/US/SC/Hilton_Head_Island.html
http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/local/USSC0155

Today and Tomorrow in Las Vegas, Nevada: Sunshine today, scattered showers tomorrow. Highs low to mid- 50s.
http://www.wunderground.com/US/NV/Henderson.html
http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/local/USNV0040

Today and Tomorrow in Davenport, Florida: Partly cloudy, highs in the 70s.
http://www.wunderground.com/US/FL/Davenport.html
http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/local/USFL0104


Weather in the News:

Deadly tornadoes rip through parts of Oklahoma
* Hardest hit is Lone Grove, about 90 miles south of the capital, Oklahoma City
* Resident says post office is gone and a church is damaged
* Storms knock out power to about 29,000 OG&E customers
http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/weather/02/11/oklahoma.tornado/index.html#cnnSTCText

Rain offers little respite in China drought
* Chinese officials say they have minimized impact of severe drought, for now
* Officials: Significant rain needed in wheat-producing areas within 15 days
* Soldiers have fired rockets with cloud-seeding chemicals into stricken areas
* More than 4.3 million residents face a shortage of drinking water
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/02/10/china.drought/index.html#cnnSTCText


(Source: National Weather Service)
...Multiple record temperatures set on Tuesday...
Mitchell Field in Milwaukee reached 59 degrees at 252 PM CST
Tuesday afternoon. This set a new record high temperature for
February 10th. The previous record was 58 degrees set way back in
1876.

The low temperature yesterday at Mitchell Field in Milwaukee was
40 degrees reached at 1159 PM CST. This set a new record highest
low temperature. The previous record was 36 degrees set in 1976.

Truax field in Madison reached a high of 54 degrees at 414 PM CST
on Tuesday. This set a new record high temperature for February
10th. The previous record was 53 degrees set way back in 1876.

The low temperature yesterday at Truax field in Madison was 32
degrees reached at 1159 PM CST. This tied the previous record
highest low temperature of 32 degrees set in 1898.


...Record high temperatures over east central Wisconsin and the Lake Shore...
Unseasonably mild air spread across northeast Wisconsin today.
Here is a list of record high temperatures so far this afternoon.

------------------------------------------------------------

High temp old record
location this afternoon temp year

------------------------------------------------------------
Merrill 45 44 1976/1999
Green Bay 50 45 1966
Appleton 52 47 1999
Sturgeon Bay 52 43 1999
Manitowoc 54 48 1977

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About HaleStorm

Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences degree from UW-Madison: 1998. Former broadcast Meteorologist for NewsRadio 1310 WIBA in Madison. NWS Storm Spotter.

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