Wisconsin Weather Update for July 2, 2012.

By: HaleStorm , 1:03 PM GMT on July 02, 2012

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Still hot but more humid starting later today. Maybe a refreshing popcorn thunderstorm?

Our trend of hot weather continues for another week, but with an additional annoyance – humidity. While last week was also very hot, dew points stayed in the 50s and lower 60s, so we stayed in that somewhat dry heat pattern. Dew points today are going to climb from near 60 this morning to near 70 later today, meaning it’s going to start feeling worse outside. And these dew points in the 70s could last through Friday, with only an occasional tropical thundershower giving temporary relief.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmssto ry.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=84930&source=0

 

Lezak's Recurring Cycle

On another note, yesterday I had a nice conversation with Jeremy Nelson (Milwaukee WISN-TV Meteorologist, name drop!) along with a couple other weather experts discussing “Lezak's Recurring Cycle”, or the LRC for short.  It’s essentially a long-range forecast based on historically-repeating weather pattern cycles. It notes that patterns that played out months ago will likely play out similarly in near-future months.  The patterns start becoming recognizable in autumn and can be used for long-range forecasting through the following summer, and it has an uncanny ability to predict temperature and precipitation patterns weeks and even a month or two in advance.   It’s worth a read, here are a few links:

http://www.wisn.com/weather/Weather-Blog-Ju ly-Long-Range-Forecast/-/9374846/15359370/-/cbd9kr z/-/index.html

http://lrcweather.com/index.php?option=com_ content&view=category&layout=blog&id=2 4&Itemid=29

http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sho wtopic=27334&hl=lrc

 

 

Today’s Forecast Grade: B

Short-Term Forecast Confidence: Medium

 

Wisconsin Forecast:

Today’s Conditions: More sunshine than clouds early, then more clouds than sunshine. A thundershower could pop up later today too. Chance of rain 50%.

Today’s High Temps: Hot and becoming more humid, high of 92 east-central, mid- 90s south. Dew points go from near 60 this morning to near 70 late.

Today’s Winds: Light from the south.

 

Raw Model Data: (combined numerical output range from three different NOAA weather models)

Appleton: Highs 85-89.

Madison: Highs 91-95.

Milwaukee: Highs 85-87.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/ getall.pl?sta=KATW&sta=KMSN&sta=KMKE

 

Tonight: Maybe an isolated storm, otherwise clouds, stars and muggy overnight. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 25%.

 

Tomorrow’s Conditions: Sunshine and clouds. A tropical popcorn thunderstorm is possible. Chance of rain 25%.

Tomorrow’s Temps: Very hot and humid. Highs in the mid- 90s east-central, upper 90s south. Will we see 100 in Wisconsin? Dew points in the 70s. Lows tomorrow night in the lower 70s.

Tomorrow’s Winds: Somewhat breezy from the southwest.

 

Extended Outlook:

Conditions: Probably dry Wednesday and Thursday, then some scattered storms Friday and into Saturday finally usher in some cooler temperatures.

High Temperatures: Stays hot and humid through Friday with highs 90-95 and dew points in the 70s. We may cool off a bit this weekend with highs in the 80s and finally less humid dew points in the 60s. And according to the LRC, we may heat back into the 90s again next week, but could have a much-needed rainfall around the middle of the month.

Extended Forecast Confidence: Medium

 

 

Today Outside of Wisconsin:

 

Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota:

Heat advisory in effect from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening...

Conditions: Partly cloudy and hot.

High Temperatures: Mid- 90s.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/MN/Minneapol is.html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USMN0503

 

Anna, Illinois:

Conditions: Hot with isolated storms.

High Temperatures: Near 100.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/IL/Anna.html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USIL0033

 

League City, Texas:

Conditions: Isolated storms.

High Temperatures: Warmer, near 90.  

http://www.wunderground.com/US/TX/League_Ci ty.html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USTX0745

 

Hilton Head Island, South Carolina:

Heat advisory in effect from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening...

Conditions: Isolated storms.

High Temperatures: Near 90. Even hotter inland though.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/SC/Hilton_He ad_Island.html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USSC0155

 

Charlotte, North Carolina:

Heat advisory in effect from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening...

Conditions: Hot with scattered storms.

High Temperatures: Near 100!

http://www.wunderground.com/US/NC/Charlotte .html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USNC0121

 

Las Vegas, Nevada:

Conditions: Sunny and breezy. And hot.

High Temperatures: Just over 100.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/NV/Henderson .html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USNV0040

 

Davenport, Florida:

Conditions: Isolated afternoon storms.

High Temperatures: Lower 90s.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/FL/Davenport .html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USFL0104

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About HaleStorm

Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences degree from UW-Madison: 1998. Former broadcast Meteorologist for NewsRadio 1310 WIBA in Madison. NWS Storm Spotter.

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