Wisconsin Weather Update

Wisconsin Weather Update for July 30, 2012.

By: HaleStorm, 12:28 PM GMT on July 30, 2012

Hot and humid with scattered storms developing later today, some perhaps severe.

A low pressure system, currently just north of Lake Superior, is expected to develop scattered showers and thunderstorms across Wisconsin later today. There is a slight risk of a few of these storms becoming severe this afternoon and evening with large hail and strong winds a possibility. According to the SPC (see link below) there is also a 2% chance of a tornado forming within 25 miles of your house, so that even slighter possibility exists as well. As far as temperatures go, we will be hot today with highs probably breaking 90 with humid dew points near 70. We should cool off just a bit for the rest of the week, with highs probably in the 80s.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/da y1otlk.html

 

 

Today’s Forecast Grade: B

Short-Term Forecast Confidence: Medium

 

Wisconsin Forecast:

Today’s Conditions: Sunshine and a few clouds this morning. Mostly cloudy this afternoon with scattered thunderstorms developing. Strong winds and hail are possible from some of these storms. Chance of rain this afternoon 50%.

Today’s High Temps: Hotter than yesterday with highs near 90 east-central, lower 90s southeast, mid- 90s south-central. Dew points near 70 mean it will be humid out there, too.

Today’s Winds: Light from the southwest.

 

Raw Model Data: (combined numerical output range from three different NOAA weather models)

Appleton: Highs 85-88.

Madison: Highs 86-95.

Milwaukee: Highs 84-89.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/ getall.pl?sta=KATW&sta=KMSN&sta=KMKE

 

Tonight: Scattered evening storms, then decreasing clouds overnight. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain this evening 50%.

 

Tomorrow’s Conditions: Mostly sunny.

Tomorrow’s Temps: Still warm, but cooler. Highs in the mid- 80s.

Tomorrow’s Winds: Light from the north, becoming variable.

 

Extended Outlook:

Conditions: Scattered storms on Thursday and Saturday. The rest of the week may be dry. Perhaps the football gods think that Packers Family Night is still on a Saturday this year, and not moved to Friday (it has not been held in full in four years!)

High Temperatures: Probably staying in the 80s through the weekend. Awesome.

Extended Forecast Confidence: Medium

 

 

Today Outside of Wisconsin:

 

Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota:

Conditions: Sunny and hot.

High Temperatures: Near 90.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/MN/Minneapol is.html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USMN0503

 

Anna, Illinois:

Conditions: Scattered storms. Hot.

High Temperatures: Mid- 90s.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/IL/Anna.html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USIL0033

 

Hilton Head Island, South Carolina:

Conditions: Showers and storms developing. Hot.

High Temperatures: Near 90.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/SC/Hilton_He ad_Island.html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USSC0155

 

Charlotte, North Carolina:

Conditions: Isolated storms later today. Hot.

High Temperatures: Lower 90s.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/NC/Charlotte .html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USNC0121

 

Las Vegas, Nevada:

Conditions: Scattered thunderstorms. Much cooler.

High Temperatures: Lower 90s.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/NV/Henderson .html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USNV0040

 

Davenport, Florida:

Conditions: Scattered thunderstorms developing. Hot.

High Temperatures: Mid- 90s.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/FL/Davenport .html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USFL0104

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Wisconsin Weather Update for July 27, 2012.

By: HaleStorm, 12:48 PM GMT on July 27, 2012

Scattered thunderstorms. Warm but not hot.

I’m going to have to mow the lawn again, aren’t I? Here in the Fox Valley we had a loud 30-minute thunderstorm to wake up to, with lots of lightning and strong winds turning the rain horizontal. While it seems to have passed now, there is a chance we may see more isolated thunderstorms developing this afternoon, as a small area of low pressure currently centered over Milwaukee’s Miller Park moves off to the east. Temperatures should be a little cooler today and this weekend compared to what they were yesterday, with highs near 80 expected both today and tomorrow, and just a few degrees warmer on Sunday.

http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0 &plot=pres&region=us&t=4p2

 

 

Today’s Forecast Grade: B+

Short-Term Forecast Confidence: Medium

 

Wisconsin Forecast:

Today’s Conditions: Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning in east-central Wisconsin. Maybe an isolated storm develops again later today. Chance of rain this afternoon 25%.

Today’s High Temps: Near 79 today.

Today’s Winds: A little breezy from the northeast.

 

Raw Model Data: (combined numerical output range from three different NOAA weather models)

Appleton: Highs 74-79.

Madison: Highs 78-79.

Milwaukee: Highs 76-82.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/ getall.pl?sta=KATW&sta=KMSN&sta=KMKE

 

Tonight: Stars and a few clouds. Lows near 60.

 

Tomorrow’s Conditions: Sunshine in the morning, a few clouds in the afternoon.

Tomorrow’s Temps: Highs just above 80. Lows in the low to mid- 60s.

Tomorrow’s Winds: Light and variable.

 

Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid- 80s. Chance of rain 50%.

 

Next Week’s Outlook:

Conditions: Scattered thunderstorms continue through much of next week.

High Temperatures: In the low to mid- 80s to start the week, then in the upper 70s to lower 80s starting around Wednesday.

Extended Forecast Confidence: Medium

 

 

Weather in the News:

 

July 2012 Will Be One Of The Warmest On Record

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmssto ry.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=85769&source=0

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmssto ry.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=85625&source=0

 

Hong Kong cleans up in aftermath of Typhoon Vicente

http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/23/world/asia/ho ng-kong-typhoon-vicente/index.html

 

U.S. drought biggest since 1956, climate agency says

http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/16/us/us-drought /index.html

 

 

Today Outside of Wisconsin:

 

Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota:

Conditions: Partly cloudy.

High Temperatures: Near 80.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/MN/Minneapol is.html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USMN0503

 

Anna, Illinois:

Conditions: Partly sunny and hot.

High Temperatures: Upper 90s.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/IL/Anna.html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USIL0033

 

Hilton Head Island, South Carolina:

Heat advisory in effect from 11 am this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening...

Conditions: Isolated storms later today. Hot.

High Temperatures: Mid- 90s.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/SC/Hilton_He ad_Island.html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USSC0155

 

Charlotte, North Carolina:

Heat advisory in effect from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening...

Conditions: Scattered storms later today. Hot.

High Temperatures: Upper 90s.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/NC/Charlotte .html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USNC0121

 

Las Vegas, Nevada:

Conditions: Sunny and a little breezy. And hot.

High Temperatures: Near 103.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/NV/Henderson .html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USNV0040

 

Davenport, Florida:

Conditions: Isolated storms later today.

High Temperatures: Lower 90s.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/FL/Davenport .html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USFL0104

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Wisconsin Weather Update for July 16, 2012.

By: HaleStorm, 12:50 PM GMT on July 16, 2012

Triple Digits Again?

Maybe! And if we don’t quite make it to 100, we’re going to get awfully close again. The Heat Index will definitely make it above 100 in the afternoon both today and tomorrow though. Southwesterly winds ahead of a small area of low pressure to our northwest is what’s responsible for bringing the tremendous heat back to Wisconsin today. The only thing that’s going to cool us off is some scattered thunderstorms which are expected to move through Wisconsin tomorrow evening and overnight. We’re going to definitely cool off after this rain briefly moves through, with highs back in the 80s starting on Wednesday.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmssto ry.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=85327&source=0

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmssto ry.php?wfo=grb&storyid=53494&source=0

 

 

Active Advisory: (Source: National Weather Service)

Fox Cities:

Heat advisory in effect from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening...

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp ?DiscussionCode=GRB

 

Southern Wisconsin:

Heat advisory in effect from noon today to 9 PM CDT Tuesday...

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp ?DiscussionCode=MKX

 

 

Today’s Forecast Grade: B

Short-Term Forecast Confidence: Medium to High

 

Wisconsin Forecast:

Today’s Conditions: Sunshine, clouds, and hot!

Today’s High Temps: Near 98, but I’m sure a few places will wind up breaking 100 today. Dew points in the upper 60s to near 70 will continue to make it somewhat humid as well.

Today’s Winds: Light from the southwest.

 

Raw Model Data: (combined numerical output range from three different NOAA weather models)

Appleton: Highs 90-97.

Madison: Highs 91-101.

Milwaukee: Highs 88-98.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/ getall.pl?sta=KATW&sta=KMSN&sta=KMKE

 

Tonight: Stars with just a few clouds. Warm and muggy overnight, lows in the lower 70s.

 

Tomorrow’s Conditions: More clouds than sunshine with scattered thunderstorms developing late and/or tomorrow night. Chance of rain 75%.

Tomorrow’s Temps: Still very hot and somewhat humid with highs in the mid- to upper 90s. Dew points again in the 60s to near 70. Temps and humidity should drop a bit after the storms roll through. Lows in the mid- to upper 60s.

Tomorrow’s Winds: Light from the west.

 

Extended Outlook:

Conditions: I hope we get some rain Tuesday night as our next chance of rain doesn’t look to come until at least Sunday.

High Temperatures: Probably “only” in the 80s, although we may break 90 again this weekend.

Extended Forecast Confidence: Medium to High

 

 

Weather in the News:

 

Upgrade to Severe Drought in Southern Wisconsin

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmssto ry.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=85310&source=0

 

Drought stretches across America, threatens crops

http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/13/us/midwest-dr ought/index.html

 

Torrential rain kills at least 28 in southern Japan

http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/16/world/asia/ja pan-floods/index.html

 

Extreme weather: Get ready to see more of it, scientists say

http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/10/world/unusual -world-weather/index.html

 

 

Today Outside of Wisconsin:

 

Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota:

Heat advisory in effect from 11 am this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening...

Conditions: Sunny, breezy and hot!

High Temperatures: Near 100!

http://www.wunderground.com/US/MN/Minneapol is.html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USMN0503

 

Anna, Illinois:

Conditions: Isolated storms.

High Temperatures: Lower 90s.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/IL/Anna.html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USIL0033

 

League City, Texas:

Conditions: Scattered storms.

High Temperatures: Upper 80s.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/TX/League_Ci ty.html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USTX0745

 

Hilton Head Island, South Carolina:

Conditions: Scattered thunderstorms.

High Temperatures: Upper 80s.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/SC/Hilton_He ad_Island.html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USSC0155

 

Charlotte, North Carolina:

Conditions: Scattered storms later today.

High Temperatures: Lower 90s.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/NC/Charlotte .html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USNC0121

 

Las Vegas, Nevada:

Conditions: Isolated storms.

High Temperatures: Near 90. Or as Wisconsinites call it, “nice and cool.”

http://www.wunderground.com/US/NV/Henderson .html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USNV0040

 

Davenport, Florida:

Conditions: Storms likely.

High Temperatures: Upper 80s.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/FL/Davenport .html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USFL0104

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Wisconsin Weather Update for July 9, 2012.

By: HaleStorm, 12:42 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

Continued warm and slightly-humid with little if any rain (more of the same.)

Remember what this weekend’s weather was like?  Very warm but not hot, somewhat humid but not terrible, sunshine mixed with clouds and a few occasional specks on the radar? Well, that’s the past, present and future of weather around here, as a very consistent weather pattern will continue this trend for at least the next few days. We will be just a little cooler compared to this weekend with highs 80-85 generally expected, and dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s means it will only be a little humid out there too.  Keep watering your lawns if you don’t want it brown, as there’s barely any rain in this forecast too. Large, slow-moving high pressure systems are rarely cursed at, but luscious green lawns have gone the way of the dodo bird around here!

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php?inv =0&plot=850&region=us&t=9p

 

 

Today’s Forecast Grade: B+

Short-Term Forecast Confidence: Medium to High

 

Wisconsin Forecast:

Today’s Conditions: Sunshine this morning, then more clouds later today. Maybe an isolated thundershower too, but don’t get your hopes up. Chance of rain just 25%.

Today’s High Temps: A little cooler than yesterday with a high of 83 east-central, mid- 80s south. Dew points in the lower 60s means just slightly humid weather too.

Today’s Winds: Light from the northeast.

 

Raw Model Data: (combined numerical output range from three different NOAA weather models)

Appleton: Highs 79-81.

Madison: Highs 83-86.

Milwaukee: Highs 80-83.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall. pl?sta=KATW&sta=KMSN&sta=KMKE

 

Tonight: Maybe an evening thundershower, but probably not. Otherwise clouds and stars overnight. Lows in the upper 50s to near 60. Chance of rain 25%.

 

Tomorrow’s Conditions: Clouds and some sunshine. Maybe another popcorn thundershower later in the day. Chance of rain 25%.

Tomorrow’s Temps: Highs in the low to mid- 80s. Lows near 60.

Tomorrow’s Winds: Light and variable.

 

Extended Outlook:

Conditions: Probably more of the same. Maybe a few scattered storms Friday and this weekend.

High Temperatures: Still generally in the 80s, but at least it’s not the 90s again.

Extended Forecast Confidence: Medium

 

 

Weather in the News:

 

Temperatures/Records during the Heat Wave

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmssto ry.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=84930&source=0

 

 

Today Outside of Wisconsin:

 

Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota:

Conditions: Sunshine.

High Temperatures: Mid- 80s.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/MN/Minneapol is.html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USMN0503

 

Anna, Illinois:

Conditions: Scattered showers and thunderstorms.

High Temperatures: Mid- 80s.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/IL/Anna.html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USIL0033

 

League City, Texas:

Conditions: Scattered showers and thunderstorms.

High Temperatures: Mid- 80s.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/TX/League_Ci ty.html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USTX0745

 

Hilton Head Island, South Carolina:

Conditions: Partly cloudy and hot.

High Temperatures: Lower 90s.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/SC/Hilton_He ad_Island.html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USSC0155

 

Charlotte, North Carolina:

Conditions: Scattered storms later today. Oh yeah and hot again.

High Temperatures: Upper 90s.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/NC/Charlotte .html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USNC0121

 

Las Vegas, Nevada:

Excessive heat warning in effect from 10 am Tuesday to 10 PM PDT Wednesday below 4000 feet...

Conditions: Sunny and hot.

High Temperatures: Near 107.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/NV/Henderson .html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USNV0040

 

Davenport, Florida:

Conditions: Isolated storms later today. And hot.

High Temperatures: Mid- 90s.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/FL/Davenport .html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USFL0104

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Wisconsin Weather Update for July 2, 2012.

By: HaleStorm, 1:03 PM GMT on July 02, 2012

Still hot but more humid starting later today. Maybe a refreshing popcorn thunderstorm?

Our trend of hot weather continues for another week, but with an additional annoyance – humidity. While last week was also very hot, dew points stayed in the 50s and lower 60s, so we stayed in that somewhat dry heat pattern. Dew points today are going to climb from near 60 this morning to near 70 later today, meaning it’s going to start feeling worse outside. And these dew points in the 70s could last through Friday, with only an occasional tropical thundershower giving temporary relief.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmssto ry.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=84930&source=0

 

Lezak's Recurring Cycle

On another note, yesterday I had a nice conversation with Jeremy Nelson (Milwaukee WISN-TV Meteorologist, name drop!) along with a couple other weather experts discussing “Lezak's Recurring Cycle”, or the LRC for short.  It’s essentially a long-range forecast based on historically-repeating weather pattern cycles. It notes that patterns that played out months ago will likely play out similarly in near-future months.  The patterns start becoming recognizable in autumn and can be used for long-range forecasting through the following summer, and it has an uncanny ability to predict temperature and precipitation patterns weeks and even a month or two in advance.   It’s worth a read, here are a few links:

http://www.wisn.com/weather/Weather-Blog-Ju ly-Long-Range-Forecast/-/9374846/15359370/-/cbd9kr z/-/index.html

http://lrcweather.com/index.php?option=com_ content&view=category&layout=blog&id=2 4&Itemid=29

http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sho wtopic=27334&hl=lrc

 

 

Today’s Forecast Grade: B

Short-Term Forecast Confidence: Medium

 

Wisconsin Forecast:

Today’s Conditions: More sunshine than clouds early, then more clouds than sunshine. A thundershower could pop up later today too. Chance of rain 50%.

Today’s High Temps: Hot and becoming more humid, high of 92 east-central, mid- 90s south. Dew points go from near 60 this morning to near 70 late.

Today’s Winds: Light from the south.

 

Raw Model Data: (combined numerical output range from three different NOAA weather models)

Appleton: Highs 85-89.

Madison: Highs 91-95.

Milwaukee: Highs 85-87.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/ getall.pl?sta=KATW&sta=KMSN&sta=KMKE

 

Tonight: Maybe an isolated storm, otherwise clouds, stars and muggy overnight. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 25%.

 

Tomorrow’s Conditions: Sunshine and clouds. A tropical popcorn thunderstorm is possible. Chance of rain 25%.

Tomorrow’s Temps: Very hot and humid. Highs in the mid- 90s east-central, upper 90s south. Will we see 100 in Wisconsin? Dew points in the 70s. Lows tomorrow night in the lower 70s.

Tomorrow’s Winds: Somewhat breezy from the southwest.

 

Extended Outlook:

Conditions: Probably dry Wednesday and Thursday, then some scattered storms Friday and into Saturday finally usher in some cooler temperatures.

High Temperatures: Stays hot and humid through Friday with highs 90-95 and dew points in the 70s. We may cool off a bit this weekend with highs in the 80s and finally less humid dew points in the 60s. And according to the LRC, we may heat back into the 90s again next week, but could have a much-needed rainfall around the middle of the month.

Extended Forecast Confidence: Medium

 

 

Today Outside of Wisconsin:

 

Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota:

Heat advisory in effect from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening...

Conditions: Partly cloudy and hot.

High Temperatures: Mid- 90s.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/MN/Minneapol is.html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USMN0503

 

Anna, Illinois:

Conditions: Hot with isolated storms.

High Temperatures: Near 100.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/IL/Anna.html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USIL0033

 

League City, Texas:

Conditions: Isolated storms.

High Temperatures: Warmer, near 90.  

http://www.wunderground.com/US/TX/League_Ci ty.html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USTX0745

 

Hilton Head Island, South Carolina:

Heat advisory in effect from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening...

Conditions: Isolated storms.

High Temperatures: Near 90. Even hotter inland though.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/SC/Hilton_He ad_Island.html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USSC0155

 

Charlotte, North Carolina:

Heat advisory in effect from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening...

Conditions: Hot with scattered storms.

High Temperatures: Near 100!

http://www.wunderground.com/US/NC/Charlotte .html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USNC0121

 

Las Vegas, Nevada:

Conditions: Sunny and breezy. And hot.

High Temperatures: Just over 100.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/NV/Henderson .html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USNV0040

 

Davenport, Florida:

Conditions: Isolated afternoon storms.

High Temperatures: Lower 90s.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/FL/Davenport .html

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/busin esstraveler/local/USFL0104

Updated: 1:10 PM GMT on July 02, 2012

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About HaleStorm

Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences degree from UW-Madison: 1998. Former broadcast Meteorologist for NewsRadio 1310 WIBA in Madison. NWS Storm Spotter.

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Appleton, WI
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Humidity: 59%
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Wind Gust: 3.1 mph
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