Wisconsin Weather Update

Wisconsin Weather Update for May 31, 2011.

By: HaleStorm, 1:27 PM GMT on May 31, 2011

So you say severe weather is possible this afternoon, eh?

Indeed I do, and so does the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and National Weather Service (NWS).  I was going to write up a nice description of what could happen in eastern Wisconsin in just a few hours, but the NWS put out a nice, brief discussion about itthis morning, so I'll just paste it in below.  And besides, who can argue with government? =)


A cold front over eastern Minnesota early this morning will move east across Wisconsin through mid-afternoon.  This front will interact with a warm and humid air mass to generate scattered thunderstorms.  Enough instability and wind shear will be present to allow some of the thunderstorms to become strong to severe late this morning and early afternoon.  The primary severe weather hazards will be large hail and damaging winds, however isolated tornadoes are possible.

Heavy rainfall will accompany any thunderstorms as well.  The thunderstorms will end across southeast Wisconsin by late afternoon as west winds pull in drier air from the west.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php ?wfo=mkx&storyid=68962&source=0

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk .html 


Today’s Forecast Grade: B

3-Day Forecast Confidence: Medium


Wisconsin Forecast:

Today: Some sunshine early this morning, but clouds return by late morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop early this afternoon, some of which could be severe with damaging winds, hail, and maybe even a tornado thrown in just for added excitement. There's a 30% chance of severe winds and/or hail falling within 25 miles of your house, and a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles. Should see some decreasing clouds later this afternoon and this evening after the squall lines moves through. Still mild and breezy with a high of 82. Chance of rain 75%. 


Raw Model Data: (combined numerical output range from three different NOAA weather models)

Appleton: Highs 77-82.

Madison: Highs 82-84.

Waukesha: Highs 81-82.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta =KATW&sta=KMSN&sta=KUES


Tonight: Mostly clear with diminishing winds. Lows in the lower 50s.


Wednesday: Partly cloudy and cooler. Highs in the lower 70s east-central, mid- to upper 70s south.


Thursday: Mostly cloudy and windy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid- to upper 70s. Chance of rain 50%.


This Weekend’s Outlook:

Conditions: Partly sunny and breezy on Friday, more sunshine and less windy on Saturday, and maybe a storm on Sunday.

High Temperatures: Warm with highs in the 80s expected.

Extended Forecast Confidence: Medium



Weather in the News:


May 22nd Wisconsin Severe Weather Summary - Updated 545 pm May 26th

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php ?wfo=mkx&storyid=68624&source=0

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Wisconsin Weather Update for May 27, 2011.

By: HaleStorm, 1:01 PM GMT on May 27, 2011

Where's my model?

MOS numerical forecast data has been unavailable for a couple days due to a system outage (see link below), so I'm without one of my primary tools for forecasting this morning. I guess my forecast will be shooting from the hip even more than usual today. But with all of that being said, the weather pattern looks to become gradually warmer as mild air begins to move northward, replacing the cooler Canadian air we've had over the last couple days. We may see a passing thundershower from time to time starting tonight and lingering through Sunday night, but I don't think it'll be enough to ruin any Memorial Day weekend plans you may have. So enjoy the outdoors, but keep an umbrella handy just in case.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta =KATW&sta=KMSN&sta=KUES



Today’s Forecast Grade: B

3-Day Forecast Confidence: Low to Medium


Wisconsin Forecast:

Today: Sunshine this morning but becoming mostly cloudy later today. Slightly warmer with a high of 61 east-central, lower 60s south.


Tonight: Mostly cloudy, maybe a shower overnight. Lows mid- 40s. Chance of rain 25%.


Saturday: Mostly cloudy, a thundershower possible. Highs in the upper 60s east-central, lower 70s south. Chance of rain 25%.


Sunday: Mostly cloudy, another thundershower possible. Highs in the lower 70s east-central, mid- 70s south. Chance of rain 25%.


Memorial Day: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid- to upper 70s east-central, low to mid- 80s south.



Weather in the News:


Deadly tornado kills 124, leaves 'twilight zone' in its wake

http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/05/24/missouri.tornado /index.html


Preliminary tornado statistics including records set in 2011

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/2011_tornado_informa tion.html


Up until 1940s, Americans didn't even get tornado forecasts

http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/05/23/tornado.history/ index.html


NOAA hurricane outlook indicates an above-normal Atlantic season

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110519 _atlantichurricaneoutlook.html

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Wisconsin Weather Update for May 20, 2011.

By: HaleStorm, 1:19 PM GMT on May 20, 2011

Return of La Nina

Cool and wet weather is generally the trend around here during La Nina weather patterns, and we have sure gotten more than a fair helping of both of them this spring. Unfortunately, after today, scattered showers and thunderstorms reenter the forecast and don't leave until late next week!  Temperatures will warm to near 70 again today and tomorrow and could get close to 80 on Sunday and Monday, but then highs drop into the 50s for Tuesday and stay below normal for the rest of next week. La Nina is supposed to wind down this summer, so maybe we'll finally get prolonged periods of warm, dry weather just in time for Autumn.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/ussatsfc.gif



Today’s Forecast Grade: B+

3-Day Forecast Confidence: Medium


Wisconsin Forecast:

Today: Some sunshine this morning, otherwise becoming mostly cloudy. High of 72.


Raw Model Data: (combined numerical output range from three different NOAA weather models)

Appleton: Highs 69-70.

Madison: Highs 72-75.

Waukesha: Highs 66-68.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta =KATW&sta=KMSN&sta=KUES


Tonight: Cloudy with maybe a shower overnight. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of rain just 25%.


Saturday: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing. Severe weather is currently expected to stay south of the Wisconsin/Illinois border but you never know. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 75%.


Sunday: Cloudy with more scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid- 70s east-central, upper 70s south. Chance of rain 75%.


Next Week’s Outlook:

Conditions: Looks to be a rather wet week with thunderstorms on Monday and scattered showers lingering through Thursday. Sorry.

High Temperatures: Warm on Monday with highs near 80, then temperatures plummet into the 50s on Tuesday and in the 60s after that. Again, sorry.

Extended Forecast Confidence: Medium



Weather in the News:


Officials see above-average hurricane season looming

http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/05/19/hurricane.season /index.html


April 10, 2011 Wisconsin Tornado Count - Now Up to 15

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php ?wfo=mkx&storyid=68405&source=0

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Wisconsin Weather Update for May 17, 2011.

By: HaleStorm, 12:57 PM GMT on May 17, 2011

Today's forecast: pleasant or boring?

Lots of sunshine and warmer temperatures (still just a few degrees below normal.)  How do you feel about this?  Are you pleased and comfortable? Are you annoyed that we're still below-normal (which is near 70)? Are you already missing the wild action of wind and rain from last week, or severe thunderstorms from a few weeks ago? If you're missing the clouds, you won't have to wait long, as the sunshine will be replaced this evening by... well, a sunset, then a full moon. But clouds will return as well late today, and will unfortunately probably stick around for the rest of the week. Besides an isolated shower Wednesday night or Thursday, there's no rain in the forecast until after you leave work on Friday, and highs in the 60s should get replaced by 70s this weekend, so that is good, right?

http://weather.unisys.com/nam/nam.php?plot=rel&am p;inv=0&t=4p



Today’s Forecast Grade: A-

3-Day Forecast Confidence: Medium


Wisconsin Forecast:

Today: Sunny and slightly warmer. Increasing clouds late in the day. High of 62.


Raw Model Data: (combined numerical output range from three different NOAA weather models)

Appleton: Highs 60-62.

Madison: Highs 64-65.

Waukesha: Highs 59-60.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta =KATW&sta=KMSN&sta=KUES


Tonight: Mostly cloudy, lows upper 30s. We had a frost advisory in east-central Wisconsin last night but hopefully not again tonight.


Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, highs in the low to mid- 60s. Maybe an isolated rain shower tomorrow night (25% chance).


Thursday: Still mostly cloudy. Maybe another isolated rain shower or patch of drizzle. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 25%.


This Weekend’s Outlook:

Conditions: Showers and thunderstorms develop Friday night and continue through the weekend. Sorry.

High Temperatures: In the 70s. Groovy.

Extended Forecast Confidence: Medium



Weather in the News:


Windy Sunday

Strong north to northeast winds affected the Lake Michigan shoreline and areas immediately inland from Sheboygan to Kenosha on Sunday.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php ?wfo=mkx&storyid=68321&source=0

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Wisconsin Weather Update for May (Friday the) 13th, 2011.

By: HaleStorm, 1:03 PM GMT on May 13, 2011

These last few days sure have felt like summer! This warmth is going to last, right?

You obviously have forgotten where you live. It's the middle of May in Wisconsin, so of course warm summer temperatures will change into cool early Spring air at a moment's notice. The next couple days will feel just like the last few days with clouds and scattered showers. The difference will be in the temperatures, as colder air begins to advect into our region from the west. Yesterday's 70s will be replaced by 60s today, then 50s for this weekend. At least the rain should be gone by Sunday morning, and next week is looking mostly dry.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/ussatsfc.gif



Today’s Forecast Grade: B-

3-Day Forecast Confidence: Medium


Wisconsin Forecast:

Today: Mostly cloudy, cooler and breezy with scattered thundershowers. Nothing severe is expected. High of 63 east-central, mid- 60s south. Chance of rain 50%.


Raw Model Data: (combined numerical output range from three different NOAA weather models)

Appleton: Highs 60-63.

Madison: Highs 65-67.

Waukesha: Highs 62-64.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta =KATW&sta=KMSN&sta=KUES


Tonight: Cloudy and breezy with scattered showers overnight. Lows in the mid- 40s. Chance of rain 50%.


Saturday: Cloudy, cooler and breezy with scattered showers. Highs in the mid- 50s east-central, upper 50s south. Chance of rain 50%.


Sunday: Cloudy and breezy with scattered showers in the morning, then decreasing clouds. Highs in the lower 50s east-central, mid- 50s south. Chance of morning rain 25%.


Next Week’s Outlook:

Conditions: Looks to be mostly dry as this same storm system stalls in the east coast, blocking any other weather systems from moving through our region until late in the week.

High Temperatures: Near 60 for the first half of the week, with a warmup expected by Thursday and Friday.

Extended Forecast Confidence: Medium

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Wisconsin Weather Update for May 10, 2011.

By: HaleStorm, 1:04 PM GMT on May 10, 2011

Is it really going to be wet all week long?

Probably, as scattered showers or thunderstorms are in the forecast each day through Sunday. However, when it's not raining, you can get outside and enjoy mild temperatures in the 70s beginning today! The forecasted high temperatures are subject to change more than usual, as the timing of when each round of showers and thunderstorms arrive will have a significant impact on how warm the temperatures get each day. These storms are not the kind you get during summer when it's hot and humid outside; rather, they are going to be caused by a really slow-moving/stationary area of low pressure that's going to take its sweet time before leaving the Midwest late this weekend. One thing to note is that any severe weather is currently expected to remain off to our west, although there is a slight risk of severe weather this evening in western Wisconsin.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/



Today’s Forecast Grade: B+

3-Day Forecast Confidence: Medium


Wisconsin Forecast:

Today: Clouds and isolated showers early this morning, then a sun and cloud mix for the rest of the day. Warmer with a high of 70 east-central, lower 70s south. Chance of rain 25%.


Raw Model Data: (combined numerical output range from three different NOAA weather models)

Appleton: Highs 65-66.

Madison: Highs 77-80.

Waukesha: Highs 72-73.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta =KATW&sta=KMSN&sta=KUES


Tonight: Clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 50%.


Wednesday: Cloudy with isolated thundershowers during the day. A little better chance of storms tomorrow night. Nothing severe is expected in Wisconsin, though. Highs in the mid- 70s. Chance of rain 25% during the day, 50% after sunset.


Thursday: Mostly cloudy with more scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid- 70s. Chance of rain 50%.


This Weekend’s Outlook:

Conditions: Even more scattered showers on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. We may dry out next week, though.

High Temperatures: Lower 70s on Friday, then cooling to the low to mid- 60s this weekend.

Extended Forecast Confidence: Low to Medium

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Wisconsin Weather Update for May 6, 2011.

By: HaleStorm, 12:55 PM GMT on May 06, 2011

Okay, we're just about a week into May. Is it finally safe to put away my winter coat?

Well, the Climate Prediction Center is predicting temperatures below-average through the month of May (see link below), and it still gets rather cold at night, so it could come in handy. However, the forecast is calling for warmer temperatures in the 60s this weekend and in the 70s next week, so maybe you're safe putting that heavy coat away. While the weather pattern may be warming up, we are also going to be in a fairly-wet pattern, so a lighter rain jacket would be very appropriate outdoor wear.  Scattered rain showers are going to be possible almost every day over the next week, although the next chance for a prolonged soaking doesn't look to arrive until Wednesday night.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions /30day/


 

Today’s Forecast Grade: B

3-Day Forecast Confidence: Medium


Wisconsin Forecast:


Today: Variably cloudy with maybe some occasional drizzle. High of 62 east-central, mid- 60s south.


Raw Model Data: (combined numerical output range from three different NOAA weather models)

Appleton: Highs 62-64.

Madison: Highs 66-67.

Waukesha: Highs 62-65.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta =KATW&sta=KMSN&sta=KUES


Tonight: Mostly cloudy, lows in the lower 40s.


Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs in the low to mid- 60s. Chance of rain 50%.


Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid- to upper 60s.


Next Week’s Outlook:

Conditions: Isolated thundershowers Monday and Tuesday with a better chance of rain on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

High Temperatures: Finally mild with highs in the upper 60s to near 70 on Monday, in the 70s Tuesday, and maybe even near 80 on Wednesday.

Extended Forecast Confidence: Low to Medium



Weather in the News:


My first-hand look at the tornado damage in Alabama

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php ?wfo=mkx&storyid=67739&source=0

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Wisconsin Weather Update for May 3, 2011.

By: HaleStorm, 12:31 PM GMT on May 03, 2011

What is this about it being cold enough to snow?

Well yeah - early morning temperatures on this early May morning once again dropped into the lower 30s, meaning it's still cold enough to snow. Thankfully that forecast is not in our cards; instead a gradual warmup is expected over the next few days. Today should be the last cloudy and cool day for a while, as cool air circulating in front of a high pressure system (currently centered in southeastern South Dakota) will change towarmer air behind the system as it moves to the east. We should get near 60 tomorrow and Thursday, then warm into the 60s Friday and this weekend, and the Extend-o-Matic(TM) weather model is showing 70s by next Tuesday. I have tickets to a minor league baseball game next Tuesday, so that means it'll probably be raining too. :)

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/ussatsfc.gif


 

Today’s Forecast Grade: B-

3-Day Forecast Confidence: Medium to High


Wisconsin Forecast:

Today: Mostly cloudy and remaining cool today. High of 48.


Raw Model Data: (combined numerical output range from three different NOAA weather models)

Appleton: Highs 49-51.

Madison: Highs 50-52.

Waukesha: Highs 46-49.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta =KATW&sta=KMSN&sta=KUES


Tonight: Becoming mostly clear and cold overnight. Lows in the lower 30s.


Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. Highs near 60.


Thursday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs in the upper 50s to near 60. Chance of rain 50%.


This Weekend’s Outlook:

Conditions: More scattered showers possible Friday evening into early Saturday, then another round of rain arrives Saturday night and Sunday.

High Temperatures: In the 60s. I'd be happier about it, except that our normal high for early May is the low to mid- 60s, so really we should be in the 60s every day.

Extended Forecast Confidence: Medium



Weather in the News:

 

Tornado outbreak is 2nd deadliest on record

http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/04/30/severe.weather.c ontext/index.html

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/april_2011_tornado_i nformation.html


What's the Probability of a Tornado in Your Area?

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php ?wfo=mkx&storyid=67633&source=0


Tornadoes show nature's power to upend lives

http://www.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/04/30/levine.torn adoes.meaning/index.html

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About HaleStorm

Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences degree from UW-Madison: 1998. Former broadcast Meteorologist for NewsRadio 1310 WIBA in Madison. NWS Storm Spotter.

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N9OEQ - Darboy USA
Appleton, WI
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Humidity: 94%
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