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Wintry Weather Monday Possible (12OCT) |
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Last Updated: 4:21 AM GMT on November 06, 2009
— Last Comment: 4:17 AM GMT on November 06, 2009
   NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook =========================================================== Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon 2009 season 06NOV2009 4:00 a.m. UTC/05NOV2009 22:00 p.m. CST ============================================== Information used for this blog are from Joint Typhoon Warning Center ----------------- Northwestern Pacific ----------------- Japan Meteorological Agency: Tokyo Hong Kong Observatory: China Typhoon 2000: Philippines PAGASA: Manila, Philippines ------------------ Northern Indian Ocean -------------------- India Meteorological Department: New Delphi Thailand Meteorological Department ------------------------ Northeastern Pacific Ocean ------------------------ National Hurricane Center: Miami, FL ------------------------- Central Northeastern Pacific ---------------------------- Central Pacific Hurricane Center: Honolulu, Hawaii --------------------------- Southern Indian Ocean --------------------------- Bureau of Meteorology Australia Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta: Indonesia Mauritius Meteorological Service Reunion Regional Specialized Meteorological Center -------------------------- Southern Pacific Ocean ----------------------- Bureau of Meteorology Australia Fiji Meteorological Services: Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Center: Wellington ========================================= CURRENT ACTIVE STORMS IN THE WORLD  ------------------------------------------------------------ =========================== Northwest Pacific Ocean =========================== Area of Responsibility ====================================== Japan Meteorological Agency Japan Meteorological Agency Tropical Disturbance Summary (0000z 04NOV) =========================================== At 9:00 AM JST, Low Pressure Area (1010 hPa) located at 7.0N 165.0E has 10 minutes sustained winds of 15-20 knots. The low is reported as moving west slowly Joint Typhoon Warning Center Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 05NOV) ============================================ An area of convection (98W) located at 14.0N 161.1E or 455 NM north-northeast of Pohnpei. The current position has been adjusted northwest of the previous bulletin, in line with the deepest convection and best low level turning in animated multispectral imagery. In general, this imagery shows a large area of unorganized convection associated with an easterly wave and strong surface convergence along the northern boundary. It is probable that a small low level circulation center is embedded withint his wave, but none is readily indenitifible in current METSAT imagery. Upper level outflow is positioned to increase into a developing upper level low to the west of the Hawaiian Island over the next 24 hours. However, outflow to the west has abated due to the weakening of a tropical upper tropospheric trough cell to the northwest. Vertical wind shear is moderate due to a tightened gradient between an upper level anticyclone to the east and the aformentioned, weakened tropical upper tropospheric trough cell to the west. Maximum sustained winds near the center is 10-15 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1008 MB. Due to the lack of an identifible low level circulation center, poor overall organization, and moderate vertical wind shear, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains POOR Storm archives (Active Storms in Color) ======================================== November T0921.Mirinae/Santi - 955 hPa TROPICAL DEPRESSION TINO - - 1006 hPa ----------------------------------------------------------- ==================== Northeast Pacific Ocean ====================== Area of Responisibility =========================== National Hurricane Center: Miami, Fl Tropical Cyclone Outlook ========================= Storm archives (Active Storms in Color) ======================================== November Next Id is EP212009 ----------------------------------------------------------- ============================ North Central Pacific Ocean ============================= Area of Responisibility =========================== Central Pacific Hurricane Center: Honolulu, Hawaii Tropical Cyclone Outlook ====================================== Storm archives (Active Storms in Color) ======================================== Next Id is CP042009 --------------------------------------------------------- ================== North Indian Ocean ================== Area of Responsibility ============================= RSMC: India Meteorological Department India Meteorological Department Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0600z 03NOV) ======================================== Convective clouds are seen over parts of southwest and west central Bay of Bengal Chief Meteorologist Forecast =========================== Joint Typhoon Warning Center Tropical Disturbance Summary (1800z 05NOV) ========================================== An area of convection (92B) located at 5.9N 78.5E or 95 NM southwest of Colombo, Sri Lanka. Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows a quasi-stationary low level circulation center with spotty convection. Strong winds (20-25 kts) to the north of the low level circulation center is also present due to funneling through the Palk Strait, but weakening to 10-15 knots as they begin to wrap around the western half of the low level circulation center. This is supported by an earlier 0450z ASCAT Pass. Upper level analyis indicates moderate vertical wind shear between 15-20 knots persisting over the low level circulation center with poleward outflow around a divergent region of a subtropical ridge, which is supported by animated water vapor imagery. Maximum sustained winds near the center is 10-15 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1007 MB. Based on spotty convection, vertical wind shear and proximity to land affecting the low level circulation center structure, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR. Storm archives (Active Storms in Color) ====================================== November Next Id is 02ARB or 05BOB --------------------------------------------------------- ================== Southwest Indian Ocean ================== Area of Responsibility ============================= RSMC: Mauritius Meteorological Services Seychelles Meteorological Services Mauritius Meteorological Services Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0000z 06NOV) ===================================== LOW [1004HPA] NEAR 05S 74E. Joint Typhoon Warning Center Tropical Disturbance Summary (2100z 05NOV) ============================================= An area of convection (91S) located at 3.1S 73.3E or 260 NM north-northeast of Diego Garcia. Animated infrared satellite imagery shows deep convection has been building over a developing low level circulation center in the past 6 hrs. An older 0511z Quikscat Pass shows a poorly organized low level circulation center with rain-flagged winds on the southeastern quadrant of 20-25 knots. A recent 1549z ASCAT Pass missed the low level circulation center, but indicated an elongated low level circulation center with 15-20 knot winds on the periphery. Upper level analysis indicates the low level circulation center is equatorward of an upper level subtropical ridge axis, providing good poleward outflow aloft and moderate vertical wind shear. Sea surface temperatures are favorable for further development Maximum sustained winds near the center is 20-25 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1006 MB. Based on the consolidating low level circulation center, favorable sea surface temperatures values, and a good poleward outflow channel, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is FAIR. System #2 --------- Mauritius Meteorological Service Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0000z 06NOV) ===================================== SHALLOW LOW NEAR 06S 53E. Joint Typhoon Warning Center Tropical Disturbance Summary (2100z 05NOV) ========================================== An area of convection (99S) previously located at 6.8S 53.6E has dissipated and is now no longer considered for tropical cyclone development Storm archives (Active Storms in Color) ====================================== November Next Id is 03R ------------------------------------------------------------ ======================== South Indian Ocean ======================== Area of Responsibility =========================== RSMC Jakarta (north of 10S from 90-110E) BOM Perth (90-125E) Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Center ------------------------------------------------------------ T-num JMA IMD US SS Cat Aus Scale (10 min) (3 min) (1 min) ============================================================ Tropical Depression ---------------------- 1.0 25 kt Low 25 kt Tropical Low 1.5 30 kt 25 kts 30 kt 2.0 30 kt 30 kts 35 kt Tropical Storm --------------------- 2.5 35 kt 35-40 40 kt Cat 1 3.0 45_kt 45-50 50_kt Severe Tropical Storm --------------------- 3.5 55 kt 50-60 55 kt Cat 2 Typhoon -------------------------- 4.0 65 kt 65-70 65 kt 1 Cat 3 4.5 70 kt 77-85 75 kt 1-2 5.0 80 kt 90 90 kt 2-3 5.5 90 kt 102 100 kt 3 Cat 4 6.0 95 kt 115 115 kt 4 6.5 100 kt 127 130 kt 4 Super Typhoon ----------------------------- 7.0 110 kt 140 140 kt 5 Cat 5 7.5 115 kt 155 155 kt 5 8.0 120 kt 170 170 kt 5 Note: India Meteorological Department intensity now according to their website FAQ section. Thanks goes to MargieKieper for this helpful chart =) 309 TCNA21 RJTD 280600 CCAA 28060 47644 MIRINAE(0921) 25162 11370 12244 250// 92714= 6:00 AM UTC October 28 2009 TY Mirinae (T0921) [System #25] 16.2N 137.0E Dvorak Intensity: T5.0 
JULY 1 2009 - AUGUST 31 2009==============================================Information used for this blog are from Joint Typhoon Warning Center-----------------Northwestern Pacific-----------------Japan Meteorological Agency: TokyoHong Kong Observatory: ChinaTyphoon 2000: PhilippinesPAGASA: Manila, Philippines------------------Northern Indian Ocean--------------------India Meteorological Department: New DelphiThailand Meteorological Department------------------------...
Information used for this blog are from Joint Typhoon Warning Center-----------------Northwestern Pacific-----------------Japan Meteorological Agency: TokyoHong Kong Observatory: ChinaTyphoon 2000: PhilippinesPAGASA: Manila, Philippines------------------Northern Indian Ocean--------------------India Meteorological Department: New DelphiThailand Meteorological Department------------------------Northeastern Pacific Ocean------------------------National Hurricane Cente...
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