TC Jasmine // TC Giovanna - St. Brandon
TC Jasmine // TC Giovanna
Posted by: HadesGodWyvern, 8:12 PM GMT on December 31, 2011 +5


BLOG INFORMATION LAST UPDATED

12FEB2012 9:00 a.m. UTC/12FEB2012 3:00 a.m. CST


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NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


=================================================
Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon 2012 season
=================================================
Information used for this blog are from

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

-----------------
Northwestern Pacific
-----------------
Japan Meteorological Agency: Tokyo
Hong Kong Observatory: China
Typhoon 2000: Philippines
PAGASA: Manila, Philippines

------------------
Northern Indian Ocean
--------------------
India Meteorological Department: New Delphi
Thailand Meteorological Department

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Northeastern Pacific Ocean
------------------------
National Hurricane Center: Miami, FL

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Central Northeastern Pacific
----------------------------
Central Pacific Hurricane Center: Honolulu, Hawaii

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Southern Indian Ocean
---------------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta: Indonesia
Mauritius Meteorological Service
Reunion Regional Specialized Meteorological Center

--------------------------
Southern Pacific Ocean
-----------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Fiji Meteorological Services: Nadi
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center: Wellington

=========================================

CURRENT ACTIVE STORMS IN THE WORLD



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========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Disturbance Summary
===============================

-----------------------------------------------

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
===========================

At 2:00 AM PhST, A Low Pressure Area was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 650 km east of Mindanao 7.8°N 133.0°E


Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January

TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1008 hPa
TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1006 hPa


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========================
North Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
============================


Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

Jaunary

Next ID BOB01/ARB01

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=======================
Southeastern Pacific Ocean
=======================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Nadi Meteorological Services

TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
24.9ºS 179.5ºW - 45 knots 987 hPa

Tropical Disturbance Advisory #15
=================================

At 18:00 PM FST, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (987 hPa) located at 24.9S 179.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 15 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared imagery.

Cloud tops cooling past 6 hours. Organization has decreased in the past 24 hours. Outflow remains good in the eastern flank. The system lies to the south of 250 HPA ridge axis in a low to moderate sheared environment. The system is being steered east-northeast by deep layer mean west southwest flow. Sea surface temperature around 26C

Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 wrap, yielding DT=3.0, PT=3.0 and MET=3.0. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a east-northeast movement with gradual weakening in the next 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 23.9S 177.8W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 23.2S 176.8W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 21.6S 176.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January
02F.NONAME - 1002 hPa
03F.NONAME - 1001 hPa
04F.NONAME - 1000 hPa
05F.NONAME - 1000 hPa
06F.NONAME - 1001 hPa
07F.NONAME - 994 hPa
08F.NONAME - 1001 hPa
09F.NONAME - 999 hPa

February
10F.NONAME - 991 hPa
11F.Cyril - 985 hPa
12F.JASMINE - 945 hPa (Within RSMC)

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==========================
Southwestern Pacific Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Bureau of Meteorology

Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
---------------------------------------

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
==========================

Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
-------------------------------------

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (03FEB)
===============================

There are no significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to develop during the next three days.

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January
05U.NONAME

February
12U.Jasmine - 978 hPa (moved east of 160E)


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Southeastern Indian Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Bureau of Meteorology

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
---------------------------------------------

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (12FEB)
============================

At 10am WST Sunday a low 1007hpa was located near 11.0S 104.0E. The low is expected to move steadily west over the next three days. It is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone during Monday but has a moderate chance of developing into a cyclone on Tuesday or Wednesday, although it is expected to move west of 090E early on Wednesday. This system will not affect mainland communities. The low may bring squally thunderstorms to Cocos Island on Monday, but gales are not likely.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================

Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate
Wednesday: Moderate

Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
---------------------------------------

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
=========================

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January

06U.NONAME
07U.Heidi - 975 hPa
11U.Iggy - 970 hPa

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==========================
Southwestern Indian Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Mauritius Meteorological Services
Seychelles Meteorological Services

CYCLONE TROPICAL GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
17.7ºS 56.7ºE - 75 knots 965 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
==========================

At 16:00 PM RET, Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (965 hPa) located at 17.7S 56.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
40 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 150 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 18.0S 54.3E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 18.5S 51.6E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 20.4S 46.1E - DEPRESSION sur Terre
72 HRS: 22.8S 41.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Meteosat7 infrared imagery keeps on showing a rather bad defined eye. Microwave and la reunion radar imagery show an eyewall existing within more than 25 nm radius from the center. Winds extension has been recalibrated thanks to 0546 AM UTC ASCAT swath. The mid-level barometric col, is currently evacuating southeastwards and system will be undergoing the steering influence of the mi-level ridge rebuilding in its southwest.

This deep mid-level ridge would steer the system on a gradually faster westwards track for the next few days. Significant intensification is no more expected. On and after Monday, Giovanna should undergo a weak to moderate easterly vertical wind shear on the northern side of rebuilding upper level high pressures. Some weakening is likely before the landfall on the eastern coast of Madagascar Monday night.

The expected landfall area at this time is located between Fenerive northward to Mahanoro southward including the city of Tamatave.

The residual center should come back over seas in the Mozambique channel on Wednesday within a rather favorable environment. It should track west southwestwards to southwestwards on the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge.

Unhabitants of Mascareignes Islands and eastern coasts of Madagascar (specially people who lived within the threaten area cited previously) should continue to closely monitor the progress of this dangerous system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January
04R.Benilde - 968 hPa
05R.Chanda - 996 hPa
06R.Dando - 990 hPa
07R.Ethel - 988 hPa
08R.Funso - 936 hPa

February
09R.GIOVANNA - 939 hPa


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T-num     RSMC   JMA      IMD     US      SS Cat       Aus Scale
           (10 min)      (3 min) (1 min)

=================================================                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
Tropical Depression
----------------------
1.0        25 kt   25 kt   Low    25 kt            Tropical Low
1.5        30 kt   25 kt   30 kt
2.0        30 kt   30 kt   30 kt  35 kt 
Tropical Storm
---------------------
2.5        35 kt  35 kt   35-40  40 kt                  Cat 1
3.0        45 kt  45_kt   45-50  50_kt 
Severe Tropical Storm
---------------------
3.5        55 kt  55 kt   50-60  55 kt                   Cat 2
Typhoon
--------------------------
4.0        65 kt  65 kt   65-70  65 kt     1             Cat 3
4.5        70 kt  70 kt   77-85  75 kt     1-2
5.0        80 kt  80 kt    90    90 kt     2-3
5.5        90 kt  90 kt    102   100 kt     3             Cat 4
6.0        100 kt 95 kt    115   115 kt     4
6.5        115 kt 100 kt   127   130 kt     4
Super Typhoon
-----------------------------
7.0        120 kt 110 kt  140   140 kt     5             Cat 5
7.5        135 kt 115 kt  155   155 kt     5
8.0        150 kt 120 kt  170   170 kt     5

Note: India Meteorological Department intensity now according to their website FAQ section.


Thanks goes to MargieKieper for this helpful chart =)

274
TCNA21 RJTD 280600
CCAA 28060 47644 CHABA(1014) 18248 11292 12344 265// 90508=

October 28 2010, 0600z
Typhoon Chaba (TY 18)
24.8N 129.2E
Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

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