September 1 2014 - October 31 2014

By: HadesGodWyvern , 2:12 AM GMT on September 01, 2014

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Northwest Pacific Ocean

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

September
TROPICAL DEPRESSION Karding/14 - 1002 hPa
T201414.Fengshen - 980 hPa
T201415.Kalmaegi/Luis - 965 hPa
T201416.Fung-Wong/Mario - 980 hPa
T201417.Kammuri - 985 hPa
T201418.Phanfone/Neneng - 935 hPa

October
T201419.Vongfong/Ompong - 900 hPa
T201420.NURI
----------------------------------------------

North Central Pacific Ocean

RSMC: Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
October
CP02.Ana - 985 hPa

Next ID CP03

------------------------------------------------

Northeastern Pacific Ocean

RSMC: National Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
September
EP14.Norbert - 957 hPa
EP15.Odile - 922 hPa
EP16.NONAME - 1005 hPa
EP17.Polo - 981 hPa
EP18.Rachel - 981 hPa

October
EP19.Simon - 946 hPa
EP20.Trudy - 999 hPa
EP21.VANCE- 1004 hPa

------------------------------------------------- -------------

Northern Indian Ocean

RSMC: India Meteorological Department

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

October
BOB03.Hudhud - 960 hPa
ARB02.NILOFAR - 950 hPa

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673. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:06 AM GMT on November 01, 2014
HadesGodWyvern has created a new entry.
672. HadesGodWyvern
9:30 PM GMT on October 31, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE VANCE (EP212014)
2:00 PM PDT October 31 2014
===================================

SUBJECT: VANCE South Of Southwestern Mexico

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Vance (1004 hPa) located at 9.5N 101.4W or 450 NM south of Acapulco, Mexico has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
50 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 9.3N 102.4W- 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS 9.6N 104.1W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS 11.7N 108.4W - 65 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
72 HRS 16.0N 110.5W - 70 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)

Additional Information
===================
Vance has a peculiar structure this afternoon. The central convection has become somewhat skeletal with the center exposed at times, although there are still plenty of curved banding features in the outer portion of the circulation. The culprit for this decrease in convection appears to be an influx of dry air moving into the central region of the tropical cyclone around the west and south sides. Dvorak estimates still support an intensity of about 40 kt.

Since the dry air is close to the center now, it will probably take some time for this air to mix out. Thus little change is shown in the short term. Afterward, models insist that the large-scale environment will become favorable for strengthening over the next three days or so. Strong southwesterly shear is anticipated for the beginning of next week, which will probably cause Vance to weaken significantly at long range. There has not been much change to the guidance suite, with the majority of the guidance still showing Vance as a hurricane in a few days. The NHC forecast is therefore very close to the previous one, and generally lies between the intensity consensus and the SHIPS model.

It seems that finally the motion of Vance has become more clear, now moving west southwestward at about 6 kt. This general motion is expected through tonight due to a ridge over the eastern Pacific. This ridge should move eastward over the next few days, steering the cyclone more westward tomorrow, and to the northwest by late this weekend. Vance is then forecast to turn northward and then north northeastward ahead of a trough moving over Baja California. Subtle differences in the speed of the trough are leading to increased model spread at long range, with the faster ECMWF preferring a more north-northeast track, compared to the slower GFS solution of a sharper northeastward turn. The NHC forecast is adjusted westward at day 3 and beyond, and is close to a dynamical model consensus excluding the UKMET model, which has an improbable forecast due to a seemingly spurious interaction with a weak ITCZ disturbance.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
671. HadesGodWyvern
9:07 PM GMT on October 31, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM NURI (1420)
3:00 AM JST November 1 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Nuri (994 hPa) located at 13.1N 134.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS: 15.3N 132.3E - 55 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 17.4N 131.9E - 65 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 19.5N 133.7E - 70 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Sea East Of The Philippines
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
670. HadesGodWyvern
9:03 PM GMT on October 31, 2014
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1`
TROPICAL STORM PAENG
11:00 PM PhST October 31 2014
=============================
The tropical storm with international name NURI has entered the PAR and was given the local name "PAENG".

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Paeng [NURI] (997 hPa) located at 13.0N 134.9E or 1,211 km east of Legazpi City has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Additional Information
==========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5-30 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical storm.

PAENG is too far to affect any parts of the country but it is expected to enhance northeasterly winds over the eastern seaboard of central and southern Luzon resulting to rough to very rough sea conditions over the aforementioned areas. Fisher folks and those using small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the said seaboards.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
669. HadesGodWyvern
8:59 PM GMT on October 31, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE VANCE (EP212014)
8:00 AM PDT October 31 2014
===================================

SUBJECT: VANCE South Of Southwestern Mexico

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Vance (1004 hPa) located at 10.1N 100.8W or 415 NM south of Acapulco, Mexico has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
50 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 9.7N 101.7W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS 9.6N 103.2W - 50 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS 11.4N 107.0W - 65 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
72 HRS 15.0N 109.3W - 75 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)

Additional Information
===================
There hasn't been a lot of significant change with the structure of Vance during the past several hours. While the central convection has weakened some, the convection associated with a banding feature on the east side has increased. Dvorak estimates are similar to 6 hours ago, so the initial wind speed will remain 40 kt. Vance continues to struggle with southwesterly shear and dry air. Most of the models, however, suggest that the shear should abate over the weekend, with increasing moisture and upper-level divergence expected as well. The latest model guidance generally shows a higher peak intensity, and the NHC forecast is now a bit higher at 48-72 hours. After that time, a significant increase in southwesterly shear is forecast, which will likely cause weakening while the cyclone approaches Mexico.

The center has not been easy to track with this cyclone, but the latest microwave and visible satellite data suggest it has been creeping toward the south-southwest. A ridge over the eastern Pacific is expected to move eastward over the next few days, steering the cyclone more steadily west-southwestward by late today, westward tomorrow, and to the northwest by late this weekend. Vance is then forecast to turn northward and then northeastward ahead of a trough moving over Baja California. While the models are in good agreement on the overall track, there remains some spread in the timing of the turn toward Mexico. The guidance is generally faster than the last cycle, so the updated NHC forecast follows that trend. Overall the forecast is also little east of the previous one, mostly because of the initial motion and position.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
668. HadesGodWyvern
1:13 PM GMT on October 31, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM NURI (1420)
21:00 PM JST October 31 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Nuri (998 hPa) located at 12.9N 135.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS: 15.0N 133.4E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 16.9N 132.5E - 60 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 19.1N 134.0E - 65 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Sea East Of The Philippines
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
667. HadesGodWyvern
1:09 PM GMT on October 31, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE VANCE (EP212014)
2:00 AM PDT October 31 2014
===================================

SUBJECT: VANCE South Of Southwestern Mexico

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Vance (1004 hPa) located at 10.5N 101.0W or 390 NM south of Acapulco, Mexico has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
40 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 10.1N 101.6W- 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS 9.8N 103.1W - 50 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS 10.9N 106.8W - 60 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS 14.0N 110.0W - 70 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)

Additional Information
===================
Several overnight microwave images and ASCAT data indicate that the center of Vance is located farther south and east than previously estimated. The center is near the southern edge of the large mass of deep convection due to moderate south-southwesterly shear. The ASCAT data and Dvorak satellite intensity estimates support maintaining an initial wind speed of 40 kt. The shear and some dry low- to mid-level air are expected to continue to affect the tropical cyclone during the next 12 to 24 hours, and only gradual strengthening is expected during that time. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for strengthening over the weekend, and most of the intensity guidance shows Vance becoming a hurricane in 2 to 3 days. By day 4, increasing southwesterly upper-level flow ahead of a large mid-latitude trough is expected to cause a significant increase in shear. This should cause weakening late in the period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is near the model consensus.

Due to the center relocation, the initial motion is a highly uncertain 245/3 kt. Vance is expected to move west-southwestward today around the southeastern portion of a mid-level ridge near the southern Baja California peninsula. The ridge is forecast to shift eastward during the next several days while the aforementioned trough approaches the west coast of California. This should cause Vance to turn west-northwestward, then northwestward over the weekend. After 72 hours, Vance is forecast to turn northward, then northeastward ahead of the trough. The track guidance remains in agreement on this scenario but there remains some spread in the timing of the northward turn, and the forward speed of Vance later in the period. The updated NHC forecast is similar to the previous track through 72 hours, but is a little faster than the previous advisory at days 4 and 5.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
666. HadesGodWyvern
8:02 AM GMT on October 31, 2014
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
665. HadesGodWyvern
7:27 AM GMT on October 31, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM NURI (1420)
15:00 PM JST October 31 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Nuri (1000 hPa) located at 12.5N 136.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS: 13.9N 133.9E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 16.1N 132.4E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 18.2N 133.4E - 60 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2 Sea East Of The Philippines
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
664. HadesGodWyvern
6:55 AM GMT on October 31, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA, FORMER TC NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
8:30 AM IST October 31 2014
================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The Depression over northeast Arabian Sea moved northeastwards and weakened into a well marked low pressure area over northeast Arabian Sea

This is the last bulletin for this system.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
663. HadesGodWyvern
4:31 AM GMT on October 31, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE VANCE (EP212014)
8:00 PM PDT October 30 2014
===================================

SUBJECT: VANCE South Of Southwestern Mexico

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Vance (1004 hPa) located at 10.8N 101.3W or 375 NM south southwest of Acapulco, Mexico has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
40 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 10.4N 102.0W- 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS 10.0N 103.3W - 50 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS 10.4N 107.0W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS 12.9N 110.2W - 70 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)

Additional Information
===================
Vance has strengthened a little this evening. Infrared satellite images indicate that deep convection has increased slightly to the northeast of the center and in a band on the south and east sides of the circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the University of Wisconsin-CIMSS supports raising the initial wind speed to 40 kt. Southerly to southwesterly shear and dry air in the low- to mid-levels of the atmosphere are currently affecting Vance, and these conditions are expected to persist for about another day. Therefore, only slow strengthening is predicted during that time. Over the weekend, however, the atmosphere is expected to moisten near the storm while the shear lessens, providing a better opportunity for more significant strengthening. By the end of the forecast period, the global models show a sharp increase in southwesterly shear, which should cause the cyclone to begin weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies between the SHIPS model and the intensity model consensus.

The storm has been moving slowly west-southwestward during the past 6 to 12 hours. A mid-level ridge located to the north and northwest of Vance is expected to steer the cyclone west-southwestward to westward during the next day or two. After that time, a gradual turn to the north and then northeast is forecast as the ridge weakens and shifts eastward in response to an approaching large trough. Although the models are in agreement in the large-scale steering pattern, there is a fair amount of spread in where Vance turns northward. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the left of the previous one for the first 72 hours to be in better agreement with the latest guidance.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
662. HadesGodWyvern
4:27 AM GMT on October 31, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21
12:00 PM JST October 31 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 12.2N 136.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS: 12.9N 132.9E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Sea East Of The Philippines
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
661. HadesGodWyvern
4:26 AM GMT on October 31, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21
9:00 AM JST October 31 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 12.3N 137.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS: 12.7N 133.0E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Sea East Of The Philippines
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
660. HadesGodWyvern
4:21 AM GMT on October 31, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #46
DEPRESSION, FORMER TC NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
5:30 AM IST October 31 2014
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over northeast Arabian Sea weakened into a depression and moved northeastwards during past 6 hours, and lays centered over northeast Arabian Sea near 20.7N 65.E, about 480 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat) and 510 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan).

It would continue to move northeastwards and weaken into a well marked low pressure area over northeast Arabian Sea off northern Gujarat coast during next 12 hours .

According to satellite imagery, intensity is T1.5. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded isolated moderate to intense convection over Arabian Sea between 19.0N to 24.5N east of 64.0E and Gulf of Kutch.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The central pressure of the depression is 1002 hPa.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
659. HadesGodWyvern
4:16 AM GMT on October 31, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER TC NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
2:30 AM IST October 31 2014
================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, The cyclonic storm NILOFAR over central and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea weakened into Deep Depression and moved northeastwards during past 6 hours, and lays centered over northeast Arabian Sea near 20.7N 65.0E, about 490 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat) and 520 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan).

It would continue to move northeastwards and weaken into a depression over northeast Arabian Sea off northern Gujarat coast during next 12 hours .

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T2.0. The system has shear pattern. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 20.0N to 24.5N and 64.5E to Gulf of Kutch. Minimum cloud top temperature is -64C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The state of the sea is very rough around the center of the system. The central pressure of the deep depression is 1000 hPa.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
658. HadesGodWyvern
9:49 PM GMT on October 30, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE VANCE (EP212014)
2:00 PM PDT October 30 2014
===================================

SUBJECT: VANCE South Of Southwestern Mexico

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Vance (1005 hPa) located at 11.0N 101.0W or 360 NM south of Acapulco, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
40 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 10.6N 101.6W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS 10.1N 102.5W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS 10.1N 105.9W - 50 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS 12.0N 109.6W - 65 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)

Additional Information
===================
Visible satellite images show that the center of the cyclone remains near the southwestern edge of the deep convection. Still, the convective organization has improved from a few hours ago, with a distinct band on the northeast side of the system. Dvorak estimates and scatterometer data support an initial wind speed of 35 kt for this advisory. Vance is the 20th named storm of the eastern North Pacific hurricane season, the most number of named storms in the basin since 1992.

The scatterometer data suggests that Vance is now moving about 260/4. A southwestward motion is expected tomorrow as a ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. The storm should turn westward and west-northwestward by 72 hours while it moves across the southwestern periphery of the ridge. Vance will likely turn northward or north-northeastward at long range ahead of a mid-latitude trough diving over Baja California into the eastern Pacific. While there is broad agreement on the general synoptic pattern, the models have a stronger ridge than the last cycle, leading to the storm moving farther to the west and south. This shift in the steering has led to a slower solution at long range by almost every reliable model. The official NHC prediction is shifted westward and southward throughout the forecast period, and further adjustments could be required on the next advisory if model trends continue.

Although Vance is expected to remain over warm water for the next several days, it is currently struggling with dry air entrainment and southwesterly shear. Most of the models respond to this environment by showing little significant intensity change during the next 24 hours, so the official forecast will follow suit. After that time, the global models continue to show reduced shear, with an increase in low- to mid-level moisture. These conditions should allow for Vance to become a hurricane in a few days, although guidance is not in particularly good agreement on this scenario. At long range, there is high uncertainty in the intensity forecast, with the models generally showing more shear than the last cycle. Thus the intensity prediction is lowered some from the previous NHC forecast, although it remains on the higher side of the guidance.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
657. HadesGodWyvern
9:43 PM GMT on October 30, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
WARNING
3:00 AM JST October 31 2014
==============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 12.0N 138.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
656. HadesGodWyvern
9:41 PM GMT on October 30, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #44
CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
23:30 PM IST October 30 2014
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, The cyclonic storm NILOFAR over central and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea moved northeastwards during past 3 hours, and lays centered over northeast Arabian Sea near 20.6N 64.7E, about 520 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat) and 540 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan).

It would continue to move northeastwards and weaken into a depression over northeast Arabian Sea off northern Gujarat coast by tomorrow evening.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T2.5/ CI 3.5. The system has shear pattern. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 20.0N to 24.5N and 65.5E to Gulf of Kutch. Minimum cloud top temperature is -64C

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The state of the sea is very high around the center of the system. The central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 996 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 21.6N 65.9E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
18 HRS 22.5N 67.0E - 25 knots (Depression)

Additional Information
=======================
The convection continues to be disorganized. Due to continuously increasing vertical wind shear, the system would continue to weaken rapidly during next 24 hours becoming a depression over northeast Arabian Sea off northern Gujarat coast by tomorrow evening. The animation of total precipitable water (tpw) imagery indicates intrusion of dry and cold air towards the core of the system. Numerical weather prediction and dynamical statistical models also suggest the weakening of the system. The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 16.0N in association with anti-cyclonic circulation to the south of the system. It would steer the system northeastwards
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
655. HadesGodWyvern
9:32 PM GMT on October 30, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
20:30 PM IST October 30 2014
================================

At 15:00 PM UTC, The cyclonic storm NILOFAR over central and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea remained practically stationary during past 3 hours and lays centered over northeast Arabian Sea near 20.5N 64.6E, about 530 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat) and 550 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan).

It would continue to move northeastwards and weaken into a depression over northeast Arabian Sea off north Gujarat coast by tomorrow evening.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T2.5/ CI 3.5. The system has shear pattern. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 19.5N to 24.5N and 64.0E to Gulf of Kutch. Minimum cloud top temperature is -75C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The state of the sea is very high around the center of the system. The central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 996 hPa.


Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
654. HadesGodWyvern
9:27 PM GMT on October 30, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP212014
8:00 AM PDT October 30 2014
===================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION South Of Southwestern Mexico

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1007 hPa) located at 11.5N 100.9W or 330 NM south of Acapulco, Mexico has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 11.4N 101.5W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS 10.7N 102.4W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
===================
The depression has become a little better organized with a more prominent central dense overcast feature forming overnight. However, recent microwave images show that the center remains on the southwestern edge of the deep convection, suggesting that southwesterly shear continues to affect the depression. Although the overall satellite presentation has improved, Dvorak intensity estimates are unchanged, so the initial wind speed will
conservatively remain 30 kt.

Although the depression is over warm water, southwesterly shear and dry air in the low- to mid-levels are expected to continue for the next day or two. As a result, the latest model guidance does not show a lot of strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues the trend of showing only slow intensification. After that time, the global models forecast a reduction in the shear, along with an increase in moisture. These conditions should promote more significant strengthening at longer ranges. The NHC forecast is closest to the SHIPS models at days 3-4, and remains above the model consensus after considering the favorable large-scale environment. Increasing south-southwesterly shear could halt any additional strengthening after that time.

The center appears to have reformed a little northeast of the previous estimates closer to the stronger thunderstorm activity, leading to an uncertain initial motion estimate of west at 5 kt. The depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward and southwestward during the next 36 hours while a mid-level ridge builds to the north and northwest of the cyclone. The ridge is forecast to shift eastward during the next few days, which should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward and then northwestward in 48 to 72 hours. After that time, the tropical cyclone is forecast to turn northward while a mid-latitude trough approaches the Baja California peninsula. The official NHC forecast is a little faster than the consensus after accounting for the unrealistically slow HWRF solution, and is very close to the previous forecast.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
653. HadesGodWyvern
9:23 PM GMT on October 30, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #42
CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
17:30 PM IST October 30 2014
================================

At 12:00 AM UTC, The cyclonic storm NILOFAR over central and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea moved north northeastwards during past 6 hours, and lays centered near 20.5N 64.6E, about 530 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat) and 550 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan).

It would continue to move northeastwards and weaken into a depression over northeast Arabian Sea off north Gujarat coast by tomorrow evening.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T2.5/ CI 3.5. The system has shear pattern. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 19.5N to 24.5N and 64.0E to gulf of Kutch. Minimum cloud top temperature is -85C.

.3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The state of the sea is very high around the center of the system. The central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 996 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 21.5N 66.0E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 22.5N 67.0E - 25 knots (Depression)

Additional Information
====================
The convection continues to be disorganized. Due to continuously increasing vertical wind shear, the system would continue to weaken rapidly during next 24 hours becoming a depression over northeast Arabian Sea off northern Gujarat coast by tomorrow evening. The animation of total precipitable water (tpw) imagery indicates intrusion of dry and cold air towards the core of the system. Numerical weather prediction and dynamical statistical models also suggest the weakening of the system before landfall. The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 16.0N in association with anti-cyclonic circulation to the south of the system. It would steer the system northeastwards.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
652. HadesGodWyvern
9:15 PM GMT on October 30, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
14:30 PM IST October 30 2014
================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, The severe cyclonic storm NILOFAR over northeast and adjoining central Arabian Sea remained practically stationary during past 3 hours, weakened into a cyclonic storm and lays centered 20.2N 64.5E, about 560 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat) and 590 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan).

It would move northeastwards and weaken into a depression over northeast Arabian Sea off north Gujarat coast by tomorrow evening.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T2.5/ CI3.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 19.0N to 24.0N and 63.5E to 69.5E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -89C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The state of the sea is very high around the center of the system. The central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 994 hPa.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
651. HadesGodWyvern
9:33 AM GMT on October 30, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #40
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
11:30 AM IST October 30 2014
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, The severe cyclonic storm NILOFAR over central and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea moved east northeastwards during past 6 hours and lays centered near 20.2N 64.5E, about 560 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat) and 590 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan).

It would move northeastwards and rapidly weaken into a depression over northeast Arabian Sea off northern Gujarat coast by Friday evening.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T3.0/ CI 4.0. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 19.0N to 24.0N and 63.0E to 69.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -86C

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 55 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The state of the sea is very high around the center of the system. The central pressure of the severe cyclonic storm is 992 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 21.0N 65.7E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 22.0N 67.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)

Additional Information
=====================
The convection continues to be disorganized. Due to continuously increasing vertical wind shear, the system would continue to weaken rapidly during next 36 hours becoming a depression over northeast Arabian Sea off northern Gujarat coast by Friday evening. The animation of total precipitable water (tpw) imagery indicates intrusion of dry and cold air towards the core of the system. The feeding of warm and moist air from southeast sector is decreasing. Numerical weather prediction and dynamical statistical models also suggest the weakening of the system before landfall. The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 16.0N in association with anti-cyclonic circulation to the south of the system. It would steer the system northeastwards
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
650. HadesGodWyvern
9:16 AM GMT on October 30, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP212014
2:00 AM PDT October 30 2014
===================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION South Of Southwestern Mexico

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1007 hPa) located at 11.0N 100.2W or 355 NM south of Acapulco, Mexico has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 11.1N 100.8W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS 10.8N 101.8W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
===================
Deep convection associated with the low pressure area south of Acapulco, Mexico, has become more concentrated overnight, and recent microwave and conventional satellite imagery suggest that the low-level center has become better defined. Therefore, the system is being designated as a tropical depression. The satellite data indicate that the center is located near the southern edge of the main convective mass. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are 2.5 and 1.5, respectively. A blend of these estimates support an initial wind speed of 30 kt.

The depression is over warm water and expected to remain in a low shear environment during the next several days. The main limiting factor will be some drier air in the low to mid-levels. As a result, gradual strengthening is predicted during much of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is a little above the intensity guidance through the first couple of days. After 72 hours, the NHC forecast is in good agreement with the HWRF which brings the cyclone to hurricane strength in about 4 days. Increasing south-southwesterly shear could halt any additional strengthening after that time.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt. The depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward later today as a mid-level ridge builds to the north and northwest of the cyclone. The ridge is forecast to shift eastward during the next few days, which should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward, then northwestward in 48 to 72 hours. After that time, the tropical cyclone is forecast to turn northward while a mid-latitude trough approaches the Baja California peninsula. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC track is near the middle of the guidance envelope.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
649. HadesGodWyvern
7:10 AM GMT on October 30, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
8:30 AM IST October 30 2014
================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The severe cyclonic storm NILOFAR over westcentral Arabian Sea and neighborhood moved east northeastwards during past 6 hours and lays centered over central and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea near 19.8N 64.1E, about 620 km west southwest of Naliya (Gujarat) and 650 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan).

It would move northeastwards and rapidly weaken into a depression over northeast Arabian Sea off north Gujarat coast by Friday evening.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T3.0/ CI 4.0. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 19.0N to 24.0N and 63.0E to 69.0E minimum cloud top temperature is -92C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 55 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The state of the sea is very high around the center of the system. The central pressure of the severe cyclonic storm is 990 hPa.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
648. HadesGodWyvern
4:16 AM GMT on October 30, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #38
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
5:30 AM IST October 30 2014
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The severe cyclonic storm NILOFAR over west central Arabian Sea and neighborhood moved nearly east northeastwards during past 6 hours and lays centered near 19.5N 63.6E, about 680 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat) and 700 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan).

It would move northeastwards and rapidly weaken into a depression over northeast Arabian Sea off northern Gujarat coast by Friday evening.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system has further decreased. Dvorak intensity is at T3.0/ CI4.0. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea to the north of 18.5N and east of 62.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -78C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 55 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The state of the sea is very high around the center of the system. The central pressure of the severe cyclonic storm is 990 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 20.3N 65.0E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 21.3N 66.4E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS 22.5N 67.8E - 25 knots (Depression)

Additional Information
=====================
The convection continues to be disorganized, the convection lies to the north of the low level circulation center. Due to continuously increasing vertical wind shear, the system would continue to weaken rapidly during next 36 hours becoming a depression over northeast Arabian Sea off north Gujarat coast by Friday evening. The animation of total precipitable water (tpw) imagery indicates intrusion of dry and cold air towards the core of the system. The feeding of warm and moist air from southeast sector is decreasing. Numerical weather prediction and dynamical statistical models also suggest the weakening of the system before landfall. The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 16.0n in association with anti-cyclonic circulation to the south of the system. It would steer the system northeastwards.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
647. HadesGodWyvern
2:03 AM GMT on October 30, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
2:30 AM IST October 30 2014
================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm NILOFAR over west central Arabian Sea moved eastwards during past 6 hours, weakened into a severe Cyclonic Storm and lays centered over west central Arabian Sea & neighborhood near 19.4N 63.1E, about 730 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat) and 740 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan).

It would move northeastwards and cross north Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast around Naliya by Friday night. However, as the system comes closer to Gujarat coast, it would weaken into a depression near northern Gujarat coast

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system has further decreased with the Dvorak number of T3.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea north of 18.5N and east of 62.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -78C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 60 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The state of the sea is very high around the center of the system. The central pressure of the severe cyclonic storm is 987 hPa.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
646. HadesGodWyvern
11:49 PM GMT on October 29, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:00 PM PDT October 29 2014
=============================

Recent satellite images suggest that the low pressure area located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, may be developing a better defined center of circulation. If this trend continues, then the low would likely become a tropical depression tonight or on Thursday while it moves generally westward at about 5 mph.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Wednesday: HIGH
Thursday: HIGH
Friday: HIGH
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
645. HadesGodWyvern
11:35 PM GMT on October 29, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #36
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
23:30 PM IST October 29 2014
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm NILOFAR over west central Arabian Sea moved east northeastwards during past 6 hours and lays centered near 19.4N 62.8E, about 760 km west southwest of Naliya (Gujarat) and 760 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan).

It would move northeastwards and cross northern Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast around Naliya by Friday night. However, as the system comes closer to Gujarat coast, it would weaken into a depression near northern Gujarat coast

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system has further decreased with the Dvorak intensity of T4.0. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea north of 18.0N and east of 62.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -65C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 982 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 20.4 63.8 - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 21.7 65.6 - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 23.7 68.8 - 25 knots (Depression)

Additional Information
=====================
Due to continuously increasing vertical wind shear, the system would continue to weaken rapidly during next 48 hours becoming a depression by Friday evening near northern Gujarat coast. The animation of total precipitable water (tpw) imagery indicates intrusion of dry and cold air towards the core of the system. The feeding of warm and moist air from southeast sector is decreasing. Numerical weather prediction and dynamical statistical models also suggest the weakening of the system before landfall. The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 16.0N in association with anti-cyclonic circulation to the south of the system. It would steer the system northeastwards with increasing translational speed.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
644. HadesGodWyvern
7:18 PM GMT on October 29, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
20:30 PM IST October 29 2014
================================

At 15:00 PM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm NILOFAR over west central Arabian Sea moved nearly northeastwards during past 6 hours and lays centered near 19.4N 62.5E, about 780 km west southwest of Naliya (Gujarat) and 770 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan).

It would move northeastwards and cross north Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast around Naliya by Friday night. However, as the system comes closer to Gujarat coast, it would weaken into a depression near North Gujarat coast.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system has further decreased with the Dvorak number of T4.0. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 18.0N to 24.5N and 61.5E to 70.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -68C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 70 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 980 hPa.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
642. HadesGodWyvern
4:35 PM GMT on October 29, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #34
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
17:30 PM IST October 29 2014
================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm NILOFAR over west central Arabian Sea moved slightly north northeastwards at about 3 knots during past 6 hours and lays centered near 19.2N 62.2E, about 820 km west southwest of Naliya (Gujarat) and 810 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan).

It would move northeastwards and cross northern Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast around Naliya by Friday night. However, as the system comes closer to Gujarat coast, it would weaken into a depression near northern Gujarat coast.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system has decreased with the Dvorak number now T4.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 18.5N to 24.5N and 60.0E to 69.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -78C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 80 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 976 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 20.1N 63.1E - 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 21.2N 64.6E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 23.2N 67.9E - 25 knots (Depression)

Additional Information
======================
Due to continuously increasing vertical wind shear, the system would continue to weaken rapidly during next 48 hours becoming a depression by Friday evening near northern Gujarat coast. The animation of total precipitable water (tpw) imagery indicates intrusion of dry and cold air towards the core of the system. The feeding of warm and moist air from southeast sector is decreasing. Numerical weather prediction and dynamical statistical models also suggest the weakening of the system before landfall. The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 16.0N in association with anti-cyclonic circulation to the south of the system. It would steer the system northeastwards with increasing translational speed.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
641. HadesGodWyvern
4:29 PM GMT on October 29, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
14:30 PM IST October 29 2014
================================
Cyclone Alert for northern Gujarat coast (Yellow Message)

At 9:00 AM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm NILOFAR over west central Arabian Sea moved slightly northwards at 7 knots during past 6 hours and lays centered near 19.0N 62.0E, about 850 km west southwest of Naliya (Gujarat), 840 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 380 km east southeast of Masirah (Oman).

It would move north northeastwards during next 12 hours and then northeastwards and cross north Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast around Naliya by Friday night/early hours of Saturday. However, as the system would come closer to Gujarat coast, it would weaken and cross the coast as a marginal cyclonic storm with winds of 35-40 knots.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T5.0. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 17.5N to 24.0N and 59.5E to 68.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -82C

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 90 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 960 hPa.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
640. HadesGodWyvern
11:29 AM GMT on October 29, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
11:30 AM IST October 29 2014
================================
Cyclone Alert for northern Gujarat coast (Yellow Message)

At 6:00 AM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm NILOFAR over west central Arabian Sea moved slightly northwards with a speed of 7 knots during past 6 hours and lays centered near 18.9N 62.0E, about 860 km west southwest of Naliya (Gujarat), 860 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 380 km east southeast of Masirah (Oman).

It would move north northeastwards during next 12 hours and then northeastwards and cross north Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast around Naliya by Friday night/early hours on Saturday. However, as the system would come closer to Gujarat coast, it would weaken and cross the coast as a marginal cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 35-40 knots.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T5.0. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 16.5N to 22.0N and 59.5E to 67.5E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -81C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 85 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 960 hPa.

A ship located near 18.1N 65.1E reported mslp of 1009.5 hpa and surface wind of 160°/31 kts, a ship located near 15.0N and 63.6E reported mslp of 1007.7 hpa and surface wind of 180°/40 and another ship located near 13.2N 63.6E reported mslp of 1009.9 hpa and surface wind of 190°/30 kts a buoy located near 18.8N 67.1E reported mslp of 1012.5 hpa and surface wind of 140°/12 kts

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 19.6N 62.6E - 75-80 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 20.6N 64.0E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 22.4N 66.7E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 24.1N 69.4E - 25 knots (Depression)

Additional Information
=====================
The sea surface temperature around the system center is 29C and it is about 28C near northern Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast. The ocean thermal energy is less than 50 kj/cm2 near northern Gujarat coast. The vertical wind shear has increased and is about 20-30 knots (moderate to high). Low level relative vorticity has decreased slightly during past 6 hours. The system is moving north northeastwards. The system lies to the north of ridge which runs roughly along 17.0N in association with anti-cyclonic circulation to the south of the system.

Upper level divergence as well as the low level convergence has decreased slightly during past six hours. Divergence is oriented from southwest to northeast towards Gujarat coast. As a result, the system would weaken and become a cyclonic storm before landfall. The animation of total precipitable water (tpw) imagery indicates gradual intrusion of dry and cold air towards the core of the system reaching up to northeast sector. The feeding of warm and moist air from southeast sector is slowly decreasing. With expected continuance of this feature, the system would continue weakening. Numerical weather prediction dynamical statistical models also suggest the weakening of the system before landfall.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
639. HadesGodWyvern
11:15 AM GMT on October 29, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
8:30 AM IST October 29 2014
================================
Cyclone Alert for northern Gujarat coast (Yellow Message)

At 3:00 AM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm NILOFAR over west central Arabian Sea moved north northeastwards with a speed of 8 knots during past 6 hours and lays centered near 18.7N 62.0E, about 870 km west southwest of Naliya (Gujarat), 870 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 390 km east southeast of Masirah (Oman),

It would move north northeastwards during next 12 hours and then northeastwards and cross north Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast around Naliya by Friday night/early hours on Saturday. However, as the system would come closer to Gujarat coast, it would weaken and cross the coast as a marginal cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 35-40 knots.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T5.0. The cyclone has ragged eye pattern. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 16.0N to 23.0N 59.0E to 65.5E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -79C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 90 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 960 hPa.

A ship located near 18.1n and 65.1e reported mslp of 1009.5 hpa and surface wind of 160°/31kts, a ship located near 15.0n and 63.6e reported mslp of 1007.7 hpa and surface wind of 180°/40 and another ship located near 13.2n and 63.6e reported mslp of 1009.9 hpa and surface wind of 190°/30 kts a buoy located near 18.8n and 67.1e reported mslp of 1012.5 hpa and surface wind of 140°/12 kts
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
638. HadesGodWyvern
3:05 AM GMT on October 29, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #30
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
5:30 AM IST October 29 2014
================================
Cyclone Alert for northern Gujarat coast (Yellow Message)

At 0:00 AM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm NILOFAR over west central Arabian Sea moved nearly northward in past 12 hours and lays centered near 18.2N 62.0E, about 900 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat), 910 km southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 420 km southeast of Masirah (Oman).

It would move north northeastwards during next 12 hours and then northeastwards and cross north Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast around Naliya by forenoon on Saturday. However, as the system would come closer to Gujarat coast, it would weaken and cross the coast as a cyclonic storm.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T5.5. The system is eye pattern. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 16.0N to 23.0N and 59.0E to 65.5E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -79C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 100 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 950 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 18.8N 62.3E - 105-110 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 20.1N 63.5E - 90-95 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 21.5N 65.8E - 75-80 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 23.0N 68.3E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)

Additional Information
=================
The sea surface temperature around the system center is 29Cand it is about 28C near northern Gujarat and southern Pakistan coasts. The ocean thermal energy is less than 50 kj/cm2 near northern Gujarat coast. The vertical wind shear is about 10-15 knots (low to moderate ) to the south and 15-25 knots (moderate to high) to the north. Low level relative vorticity remained same during past 12 hours. The system is moving slowly (nearly northwards). The system presently lies to the north of ridge which runs roughly along 17.0N and in association with anti-cyclonic circulation to the southeast of the system.

No significant change in upper level divergence as well as the low level convergence during past six hours. Divergence is oriented from southwest to northeast towards Gujarat coast. There is both poleward and equatorward outflow suggests the system to maintain the same intensity during next 12 hours. Dynamical statistical models also suggest the gradual weakening of the system after 12 hours. However, the animation of total precipitable water (tpw) imagery indicates gradual intrusion of dry and cold air towards the core of the system reaching up to southeast sector. The feeding of warm and moist air from southeast sector is slowly decreasing. With expected continuance of this feature, the system would start weakening after 12 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
637. HadesGodWyvern
2:10 AM GMT on October 29, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:00 PM PDT October 28 2014
==============================

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico, are not particularly well organized, and it is not yet clear that the low has developed a well-defined center of circulation. However, environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is still expected to form tonight or on Wednesday while the low moves west-northwestward at about 5 mph.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=========================
Tuesday HIGH
Wednesday HIGH
Thursday: HIGH
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
636. HadesGodWyvern
11:44 PM GMT on October 28, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
2:30 AM IST October 29 2014
================================
Cyclone Alert for northern Gujarat coast (Yellow Message)

At 21:00 PM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm NILOFAR over west central Arabian Sea moved nearly northward in past 12 hours, and lays centered near 18.0N 61.8E, about 930 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat), 940 km southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 420 km southeast of Masirah (Oman).

It would move north northeastwards during next 12 hours and then northeastwards and cross north Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast around Naliya by forenoon on Saturday, However, as the system would come closer to Gujarat coast, it would weaken and cross the coast as a cyclonic storm.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T5.5. The system is eye pattern. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 15.0N to 23.0N and 58.0E 65.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -77C

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 100 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 952 hPa.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
635. HadesGodWyvern
8:05 PM GMT on October 28, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #28
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
23:30 PM IST October 28 2014
================================
Cyclone Alert for northern Gujarat coast (Yellow Message)

At 18:00 PM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm NILOFAR over west central Arabian Sea moved nearly northward in past 12 hours, and lays centered near 17.6N 61.8E, about 970 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat), 980 km southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 450 km southeast of Masirah (Oman).

It would move north northeastwards during next 24 hours and then northeastwards and cross north Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast around Naliya by forenoon on Saturday, However, as the system would come closer to Gujarat coast, it would weaken and cross the coast as a cyclonic storm.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T5.5. The system is eye pattern. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 15.0N to 22.0N and 58.5E to 66.0E minimum cloud top temperature is -79C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 100 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 952 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 18.6N 62.2E - 105-110 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 20.1N 63.5E - 100-105 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 21.5N 65.9E - 75-80 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 22.9N 68.5E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Additional Information
====================
The sea surface temperature around the system center is 29C and it is about 28C near northern Gujarat and south Pakistan coasts . The ocean thermal energy is less than 50kj/cm2 near northern Gujarat coast. The vertical wind shear is about 5-10 knots (low) to the south and moderate to high 10-20 knots to the north . Low level relative vorticity has increased during past 12 hrs. The system is moving slowly (nearly northwards) as it lies close to the ridge which runs roughly along 18.0N and in association with anti-cyclonic circulation to the east of the system. It will move to the north of the ridge during next 24 hours leading to gradual increase in the easterly component of the movement. The upper level divergence as well as the low level convergence have increased during past nine hours. Divergence is oriented from southwest to northeast towards Gujarat coast. There is both poleward and equatorward outflow favoring the slight intensification of the system. Dynamical statistical models also suggest the gradual intensification of the system during next 12 hours and weakening thereafter. However, the animation of total precipitable water (tpw) imagery indicates gradual intrusion of dry and cold air towards the core of the system reaching up to southwest sector. The feeding of warm and moist air from southeast sector is slowly decreasing. With expected continuance of this feature, the system would start weakening after 24 hours.

The system will have peak intensity of very severe cyclonic storm (105-110 knots gusting to 125 knots) during next 12 hours. However, during northeastward movement, it would experience higher vertical wind shear, entrainment of dry air and also it may interact with land surface. As a result, the system would weaken into a cyclonic storm (45-50 knots gusting to 55 knots) at the time of landfall over northern Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
634. HadesGodWyvern
7:52 PM GMT on October 28, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 AM PDT October 28 2014
==============================

The area of low pressure located several hundred miles south southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec remains fairly well organized. However, recent satellite data indicate the low does not have a well-defined center and is not a tropical cyclone yet. Environmental conditions still appear conducive for a tropical depression to form later today or tonight while the low moves slowly west northwestward.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=========================
Tuesday HIGH
Wednesday HIGH
Thursday: HIGH
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
633. HadesGodWyvern
7:50 PM GMT on October 28, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
17:30 PM IST October 28 2014
================================
Cyclone Alert for northern Gujarat coast (Yellow Message)

At 12:00 PM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm NILOFAR over west central Arabian Sea moved nearly northward in past 6 hours, intensified further and lays centered near 16.7N 61.8E, about 1030 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat), 1070 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 820 km east southeast of Salalah (Oman).

It would move north northeastwards during next 24 hrs and then northeastwards and cross northern Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast around Naliya by forenoon on Saturday. However, as the system would come closer to Gujarat coast, it would weaken and cross the coast as a cyclonic storm.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T5.5. The convection is eye pattern. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 14.0N to 22.0N and 59.0E to 67.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -84C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 100 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 952 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity:
=========================
12 HRS 18.1N 62.3E - 105-110 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 19.4N 62.8E - 100-105 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 20.8N 64.7E - 75-80 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 22.2N 67.2E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Additional Information
=====================
The sea surface temperature around the system center is 29C and it is about 28c near northern Gujarat coast. The ocean thermal energy is less than 50kj/cm2 near northern Gujarat coast. The vertical wind shear is about 5-10 knots (low) to the south and moderate to high 10-20 knots to the north. Low level relative vorticity has increased during past 12hrs. The system is moving slowly (nearly northwards) as it lies close to the ridge in association with anti-cyclonic circulation to the east of the system. It will move to the north of the ridge during next 24 hours leading to gradual increase in the easterly component of the movement. The upper level divergence as well as the low level convergence have increased during past six hours. Divergence is oriented from southwest to northeast towards Gujarat coast. There is both poleward and equatorward outflow favoring the intensification of the system. Dynamical statistical models also suggest the gradual intensification of the system during next 12 hours and weakening thereafter. However, the animation of total precipitable water (tpw) imagery indicates gradual intrusion of dry and cold air towards the core of the system reaching up to southwest sector. The feeding of warm and moist air from southeast sector is slowly decreasing. With expected continuance of this feature, the system would start weakening after 24 hours.

The system will have peak intensity of very severe cyclonic storm (105-110 knots gusting to 125 knots) during next 12 hours. However, during northeastward movement, it would experience higher vertical wind shear, entrainment of dry air and also it may interact with land surface. As a result, the system would weaken into a cyclonic storm (45-50 knots gusting to 55 knots) at the time of landfall over northern Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast.

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
632. HadesGodWyvern
7:36 PM GMT on October 28, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
14:30 PM IST October 28 2014
================================
Cyclone Alert for northern Gujarat coast (Yellow Message)

At 9:00 AM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm NILOFAR over west central Arabian Sea moved north northwestwards in past 6 hours, intensified further and lays centered near 16.3N 61.6E, about 1080 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat), 1110 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 800 km east southeast of Salalah (Oman).

It would move north northwestwards during next 12 hours and then gradually recurve northeastwards and cross north Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast around Naliya by forenoon on Saturday. However, as the system would come closer to Gujarat coast, it would weaken and cross the coast as a cyclonic storm.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T5.0. The convection with this system has been further organized with well defined eye. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 13.5N to 22.5N and 59.0E 68.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -83C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 90 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 966 hPa.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
629. HadesGodWyvern
11:00 AM GMT on October 28, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
11:30 AM IST October 28 2014
================================
Cyclone Alert for northern Gujarat coast (Yellow Message)

At 6:00 AM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm NILOFAR over west central Arabian Sea moved slowly northwestwards in past 6 hours and lays centered near 15.9N 61.6E, about 1110 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat), 1150 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 810 km east southeast of Salalah (Oman).

It would move north northwestwards during next 12 hours and then gradually recurve northeastwards and cross north Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast around Naliya by forenoon on Saturday. However, as the system would come closer to Gujarat coast, it would weaken and cross the coast as a cyclonic storm.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T4.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 13.0N to 20.0N and 59.0E to 66.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -84C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 80 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 976 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 16.8N 61.0E - 85 to 90 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 18.0N 61.3E - 80 to 85 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 19.9N 63.5E - 65 to 70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 21.4N 66.3E - 55 to 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Additional Information
=====================
The sea surface temperature around the system center is 29C and it is about 28C near northern Gujarat coast. The ocean thermal energy is less than 50kj/cm2 near northern Gujarat coast. The vertical wind shear is about 5-10 knots (low). There is no change around system center. And there is decrease in wind shear to the northeast of the system center towards Gujarat coast. Low level relative vorticity has increased during past 12 hours. The system is moving slowly (north northwestwards) as it lies close to the south of the ridge in association with anti-cyclonic circulation to the east southeast of the system. The upper level divergence is now oriented from southwest to northeast towards Gujarat coast. There is both poleward and equatorward outflow favoring the intensification of the system. Dynamical statistical models also suggest the gradual intensification of the system during next 24 hours and weakening thereafter. However, the animation of total precipitable water (tpw) imagery indicate gradual intrusion of dry and cold air towards the core of the system reaching up to southwest sector. The feeding of warm and moist air from southeast sector is slowly decreasing. With expected continuance of this feature, the system would start weakening after 24 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
628. HadesGodWyvern
10:46 AM GMT on October 28, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
8:30 AM IST October 28 2014
================================
Cyclone Alert for northern Gujarat coast (Yellow Message)

At 3:00 AM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm NILOFAR over west central Arabian Sea moved north northwestwards in past 6 hours and lays centered near 15.8N 61.7E, about 1110 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat), 1150 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 820 km east southeast of Salalah (Oman).

It would move north northwestwards during next 12 hours and then gradually recurve northeastwards and cross northern Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast around Naliya by forenoon. on Saturday However, as the system would come closer to Gujarat coast, it would weaken and cross the coast as a cyclonic storm.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is t4.0. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 13.0N to 19.0N and 59.0E to 66.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -87C. The ship located near 21.2N 62.2E reported mslp of 1010 hPa and surface wind of 090/30 knots. Another ship located near 21.3N 64.0E reported mslp of 1011.5 hPa and surface wind of 100/22 knots

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 980 hPa.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
627. HadesGodWyvern
3:36 AM GMT on October 28, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
5:30 AM IST October 28 2014
================================
Cyclone Alert for north Gujarat coast (Yellow Message)

At 0:00 AM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm NILOFAR over west central Arabian Sea moved north northwestwards in past 6 hours and lays centered near 15.7N 61.8E, about 1120 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat), 1160 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 840 km east southeast of Salalah (Oman).

It would move north northwestwards during next 18 hrs and then recurve northeastwards and cross north Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast around Naliya by Saturday before noon. However, as the system would come closer to Gujarat coast, it would weaken and cross the coast as a cyclonic storm.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T4.0. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 13.0N to 18.0N and 60.0E to 65.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -93C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 980 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS 16.8N 61.2E - 75 to 80 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 18.0N 61.2E - 75 to 80 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 19.7N 62.8E - 65 to 70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 21.1N 65.8E - 55 to 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Additional Information
====================
The vertical wind shear is about 5-10 knots (low). There is no change around system center. And there is decrease in wind shear to the northeast of the system center towards Gujarat coast. Low level relative vorticity is very high around the system center. The system is moving slowly north northwestwards) as it lies very close to the south of the ridge in association with anti-cyclonic circulation to the east southeast of the system. The speed of movement of the system has slightly increased during past 12 hours and would further increase gradually today. The upper level divergence is now oriented from southwest to northeast towards Gujarat coast. There is both poleward and equatorward outflow favoring the intensification of the system. Dynamical statistical models also suggest the gradual intensification of the system during next 24 hrs and weakening thereafter. Considering the movement, most of the models are unanimous about initial north northwestward movement and then northeastward, re-curvature towards northern Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast.

The system will have peak intensity of very severe cyclonic storm (75-80 knots gusting to 90 knots) during next 24 hours. However, during northeastward movement, it would experience higher vertical wind shear, entrainment of dry air and also it may interact with land surface. As a result, the system would weaken into a cyclonic storm (45 knots gusting to 55 knots) at the time of landfall over northern Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
626. HadesGodWyvern
12:10 AM GMT on October 28, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
2:30 AM IST October 28 2014
================================
Cyclone Alert for northern Gujarat coast (Yellow Message)

At 21:00 PM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm NILOFAR over west central Arabian Sea moved north northwestwards and lays centered near 15.6N 61.8E, about 1120 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat), 1170 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 840 km east southeast of Salalah (Oman).

It would move north northwestwards during next 18 hours and then recurve northeastwards and cross northern Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast around Naliya by Friday morning. However, as the system would come closer to Gujarat coast, it would weaken and cross the coast as a severe cyclonic storm.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T4.0. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 13.0N to 18.0N 60.0E to 64.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 70 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 980 hPa.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
625. HadesGodWyvern
9:37 PM GMT on October 27, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
23:30 PM IST October 27 2014
================================
Cyclone Alert for northern Gujarat coast (Yellow Message)

At 18:00 PM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm NILOFAR over west central Arabian Sea further moved northwards and lays centered near 15.3N 62.0E, about 1140 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat), 1190 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 870 km east southeast of Salalah (Oman).

It would move initially north northwestwards during next 24 hrs and then recurve northeastwards and cross northern Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast around Naliya by Friday morning. However, as the system would come closer to Gujarat coast, it would weaken and cross the coast as a severe cyclonic storm.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T4.0. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 12.5N to 17.5N 60.0E to 64.0E

The convection shows an eye pattern. 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 70 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 980 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 16.3N 61.5E - 80-85 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 17.5N 61.4E - 75-80 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 19.9N 63.1E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 22.3N 66.9E - 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Additional Information
======================
The vertical wind shear remained same during past 18 hours and is about 5-10 knots (low) around the system center. The low level relative vorticity is very high around system center. Under these circumstances, the convective cloud in association with the system is organized and is eye pattern at present. The system is moving slowly as it lies very close to the ridge in association with anti-cyclonic circulation to the east southeast of the system and another to the northwest. The speed of movement of the system would peak up with north northwestward movement gradually today. Dynamical statistical models also suggest the gradual intensification of the system during next 48 hours and weakening thereafter. Considering the movement, most of the models are unanimous about initial north northwestward movement and then northeastwards. Re-curvature towards northern Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast

The system will have peak intensity of very severe cyclonic storm (80-85 knots gusting to 95 knots) during next 24 hours. However, during northeastward movement, it would experience higher vertical wind shear, entrainment of dry air and also it may interact with land surface. As a result, the system would weaken into a severe cyclonic storm (50-60 knots gusting to 65 knots) at the time of landfall over northern Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
624. HadesGodWyvern
8:49 PM GMT on October 27, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 AM PDT October 27 2014
============================

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized near an area of low pressure located several hundred miles south southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form later tonight or on Tuesday while the low moves slowly westward to west northwestward.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=================================
Monday MODERATE
Tuesday HIGH
Wednesday: HIGH
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052
623. HadesGodWyvern
6:08 PM GMT on October 27, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NILOFAR (ARB02-2014)
20:30 PM IST October 27 2014
================================
Cyclone Alert for northern Gujarat coast (Yellow Message)

At 15:00 PM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm NILOFAR over west central Arabian Sea moved further slightly northwards and lays centered near 15.1N 62.0E, about 1155 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat), 1210 km south southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 870 km east southeast of Salalah (Oman).

It would move initially north northwestwards during next 24 hours and then recurve northeastwards and cross north Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast around Naliya by Friday morning. However, as the system would come closer to Gujarat coast , it would weaken and cross the coast as a severe cyclonic storm.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T4.0. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over Arabian Sea between 12.5N to 16.5N and 60.0E to 65.0E.

The convection shows an eye pattern. 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 70 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 980 hPa.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47052

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