July 1, 2014 - August 31, 2014

By: HadesGodWyvern , 12:04 AM GMT on July 01, 2014

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Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
July
T201408.Neoguri/Florita - 930 hPa
T201409.Rammasun/Glenda - 940 hPa **910 hPa from HKO and CMA**
T201410.Matmo/Henry - 960 hPa
T201412.Nakri/Inday- 980 hPa
T201411.Halong/Jose- 915 hPa

August
T201413.Genevieve - 915 hPa (Within AOR)

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North Central Pacific Ocean
===========================


Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
July
CP01.Wali- 1001 hPa
EP07.GENEVIEVE - 960 hPa (regen-within AOR/Moved West of 180)
EP09.ISELLE - 967 hPa (within AOR)
EP10.JULIO - 962 hPa (within AOR)

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==========================
Northeastern Pacific Ocean
===========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: National Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

July
EP04.Douglas - 1001 hPa
EP05.Elida - 1003 hPa
EP06.Fausto - 1005 hPa
EP07.Genevieve - 1004 hPa (moved west of 140W)
EP08.Hernan - 992 hPa
EP09.Iselle - 947 hPa (moved west of 140W)

August
EP10.Julio - 966 hPa (moved west of 140W)
EP11.Karina - 988 hPa
EP12.Lowell - 982 hPa
EP13.Marie - 918 hPa

======================
Northern Indian Ocean
======================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
July
LAND Depression 01

August
LAND Depression 02

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771. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:12 AM GMT on September 01, 2014
HadesGodWyvern has created a new entry.
770. HadesGodWyvern
9:00 PM GMT on August 31, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 AM PDT August 31 2014
==============================

A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms, associated with a trough of low pressure, has formed near the south-central coast of Mexico and extends westward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days while it moves northwestward around 5 to 10 mph.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
============================
Sunday: LOW
Monday: LOW
Tuesday: LOW
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
769. HadesGodWyvern
2:32 PM GMT on August 30, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
14:30 PM IST August 30 2014
================================

The well marked low pressure area over South Chhattisgarh and neighborhood persists.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
768. HadesGodWyvern
1:19 PM GMT on August 29, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST August 29 2014
====================================

A Well Marked Low Pressure Area lies over west central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal off northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha coasts.

System may concentrate into a depression during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential For The Bay of Bengal
============================================
HIGH in the next 72 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
767. HadesGodWyvern
1:15 PM GMT on August 29, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #30
EXTRATROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC MARIE (EP132014)
2:00 AM PDT August 29 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE West Of Baja California Peninsula

At 6:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Low, Former Marie (1002 hPa) located at 27.6N 132.5W or 855 NM west southwest of San Diego, California has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
110 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 28.7N 133.7W - Low Pressure Area

Additional Information
==================
There has been no organized deep convection within the circulation of the system for many hours now, so Marie has transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt in agreement with 30-35 kt winds noted in a 0530 UTC ASCAT-B pass. The large circulation will gradually spin down over cold waters of the eastern North Pacific, and the NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the global model guidance and the previous NHC prediction.

Marie is moving northwestward at about 12 kt. The cyclone should slow down during the next day or so as it moves away from a mid-level ridge near California into an area of lighter steering currents. The low-level ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of Marie after that time, causing the post-tropical cyclone to move west-northwestward and eventually west-southwestward by the end of the period. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and is close to the dynamical model consensus.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern California will gradually subside through tonight. These swells could still produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON MARIE, PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
766. HadesGodWyvern
3:15 AM GMT on August 29, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
8:00 PM PDT August 28 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE West Of Baja California Peninsula

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Marie (1001 hPa) located at 27.0N 131.5W or 820 NM west southwest of San Diego, California has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 28.2N 133.0W - Low Pressure Area

Additional Information
==================
Marie has only been producing patchy shallow convection for the past 12 hours or so, and the daily real-time global SST analysis shows that the center is approaching water as cold as 21C. Since deep convection should not redevelop in this environment, Marie is expected to become post-tropical overnight--if it isn't already. In the meantime, maximum winds are assumed to still be around 35 kt based on an earlier ASCAT pass. The large circulation will take some time to spin down, and a gradually weakening remnant low is forecast through the 5-day period.

The initial motion remains 310/14 kt, with Marie moving along the western edge of a low- to mid-level ridge located near the coast of California and the Baja California peninsula. Marie will slow down during the next day or so as it moves away from the ridge. Then, the low-level flow will steer the remnant low west-northwestward and eventually west-southwestward by the end of the period. The NHC track is very similar to the previous one and close to the TVCE model consensus.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern California will gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
765. HadesGodWyvern
2:44 AM GMT on August 29, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM JST August 29 2014
=================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 21.0N 103.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
764. HadesGodWyvern
9:16 PM GMT on August 28, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #28
TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
2:00 PM PDT August 28 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE West Of Baja California Peninsula

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Marie (1000 hPa) located at 26.1N 130.4W or 800 NM west southwest of San Diego, California has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
160 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 27.4N 132.2W - Low Pressure Area

Additional Information
==================
Deep convection has been absent from Marie since around the time of the previous advisory. Convection seems unlikely to return given that the cyclone is moving over waters of around 22C. If convection does not return, the cyclone will likely be declared post-tropical tonight. The vortex still has an impressive presentation in visible satellite imagery, with a tight swirl of low clouds and a circulation that spans about 10 degrees of latitude. The initial intensity of 35 kt is in agreement with the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next few days given the scale of the circulation, and the remnant low is expected to persist through the 5-day period.

The initial motion estimate is 310/14. A general northwestward motion is expected through 48 hours while the cyclone remains under the influence of a mid-level ridge centered near the coast of southern California. By 72 hours Marie is forecast to slow down considerably and turn westward and then west-southwestward by the end of the period as it is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one after adjusting for the initial position and motion.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern California will gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
763. HadesGodWyvern
9:11 PM GMT on August 28, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
3:00 AM JST August 29 2014
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 20.0N 104.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
762. HadesGodWyvern
5:06 PM GMT on August 28, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM JST August 28 2014
=================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 20.0N 106.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
761. HadesGodWyvern
1:10 PM GMT on August 28, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
2:00 AM PDT August 28 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE West Of Baja California Peninsula

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Marie (995 hPa) located at 24.4N 127.8W or 715 NM west southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
160 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 25.6N 129.8W - Extratropical Low

Additional Information
==================
Deep convection near Marie has significantly decreased in the past few hours, with the low-level center becoming partially exposed on the north side of the old central dense overcast. The initial wind speed is reduced to 45 kt, on the higher side of the latest satellite classifications. Since Marie is now over sub-23C waters, it is no longer expected to produce organized deep convection and should become post-tropical in about 12 hours. The large circulation will take some time to spin down even without convection, so the NHC intensity forecast shows only a gradual decay, similar to the global models and the intensity consensus.

Marie is moving to the northwest or 305/14 kt. This general motion is expected for the next day or so while the cyclone remains under the influence of a mid-level high near the coast of southern California. Marie or its remnants are forecast to slow down considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of the forecast period when it is steered by the lower-level flow. Model guidance has nudged a bit to the west in the first 48 hours, so the NHC track forecast is adjusted in that direction. Beyond day 3, the updated NHC track prediction, similar to the previous forecast, is a little bit farther north.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern California will gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
760. HadesGodWyvern
1:07 PM GMT on August 28, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
15:00 PM JST August 28 2014
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 20.0N 108.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 20 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
759. HadesGodWyvern
1:06 PM GMT on August 28, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST August 28 2014
=================================

A Low Pressure Area exists over west central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal off northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha coasts. It would become more well marked during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
LOW within the next 72 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
758. HadesGodWyvern
3:41 AM GMT on August 28, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM JST August 28 2014
=================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 20.0N 109.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 25 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
757. HadesGodWyvern
3:35 AM GMT on August 28, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
8:00 PM PDT August 27 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE West Of Baja California Peninsula

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Marie (992 hPa) located at 23.8N 126.4W or 655 NM west southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico has sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
160 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 25.0N 128.4W- 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS 26.7N 130.8W - Extratropical Low

Additional Information
==================
The convective pattern has not changed since the last advisory. However, the center of Marie is now over SSTs less than 24C, and the circulation continues to gradually spin down. ASCAT data still showed a sizable area of 50-kt winds several hours ago, so the initial intensity is only lowered to 50 kt, which is on the higher side of the satellite intensity estimates. Water temperatures between 22-23C and a stable environment will cause the cyclone to continue weakening, and Marie could become a convection-free post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours.

A strengthening mid-level high near the coast of California and the Baja California peninsula has caused Marie to accelerate a bit, with an initial motion of 300/14 kt. Marie is forecast to turn northwestward around this high during the next 48 hours, but then slow down considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of the forecast period when it is steered by lower-level flow. The updated NHC track forecast is a little bit farther north than the previous one beyond day 3 during the remnant low phase, but otherwise there are no significant changes.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern California will gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
756. HadesGodWyvern
9:22 PM GMT on August 27, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
2:00 PM PDT August 27 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE West Of Baja California Peninsula

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Marie (989 hPa) located at 23.1N 125.0W or 835 NM west of The southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
160 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 24.1N 127.0W- 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS 25.8N 129.5W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS 29.0N 133.1W - Low Pressure Area

Additional Information
==================
The satellite presentation of Marie continues to degrade with convection now confined to the southeastern portion of the circulation. The center has also become partially exposed. Subjective and objective Dvorak T- and CI- numbers continue to decrease, and the initial wind speed is reduced to 55 kt. This is also supported by a recent partial ASCAT pass that showed winds to 50 kt over the northern portion of the circulation. The cyclone is expected to continue weakening while it moves over sea surface temperatures of 22 to 23 degrees Celsius, and into a more stable environment during the next couple of days. Marie should become a post-tropical cyclone by late Thursday.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is forecast to continue during the next 2 to 3 days while the cyclone is steered around the western side of a mid-level high off the coast of the northern Baja California peninsula. After Marie becomes a shallow system, it should turn westward or west-southwestward in low-level northeasterly flow. The new NHC track is essentially an update of the previous advisory.

Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern California. These swells are expected to persist for another day or so and are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
755. HadesGodWyvern
9:10 PM GMT on August 27, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
3:00 AM JST August 28 2014
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 18.0N 111.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
754. HadesGodWyvern
1:57 PM GMT on August 27, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
15:00 PM JST August 27 2014
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 17.0N 113.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest slowly.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
753. HadesGodWyvern
1:50 PM GMT on August 27, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
14:30 PM IST August 27 2014
==================================

The low pressure area over west central & adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal off northern Andhra Pradesh­ and southern Odisha coasts persists.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
752. HadesGodWyvern
1:47 PM GMT on August 27, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
2:00 AM PDT August 27 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE West Of The Southern Tip Of Baja California Peninsula

At 6:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Marie (974 hPa) located at 21.7N 122.5W or 705 NM west of The southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
200 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 22.5N 124.4W - 65 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
24 HRS 23.8N 127.0W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS 27.0N 130.9W - Extratropical Low

Additional Information
==================
Marie continues to slowly weaken. Although deep convection in the eyewall has changed little during the past few hours, cloud tops have warmed outside of the inner core region. In addition, a dry slot is now evident to the north of the center. The initial intensity is lowered a little to 75 kt, using a blend of the latest Dvorak classifications. The hurricane is currently over 25 C water and it will be moving over even cooler water during the next few days. These unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a more stable air mass should cause the weakening trend to continue. Marie is expected to lose all of its deep convection in 36 to 48 hours when it is forecast to be over sea surface temperatures around 22 C.

Satellite fixes suggest that Marie has moved a little to the left of the previous forecast track. The initial motion estimate is 285/11. A turn to the northwest and then north-northwest is expected during the next few days while the weakening system moves around a strong mid-level high builds off the coast of the northern Baja California. Beyond a few days, the shallow system is expected to slow down and turn westward or southwestward in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast has been nudged southward, mainly to account for the initial motion and position.

Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja California peninsula and the southern California coast. These swells are expected to persist for another day or so and could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
751. HadesGodWyvern
3:32 AM GMT on August 27, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #57
LOW PRESSURE AREA, FORMER TC KARINA (EP112014)
8:00 PM PDT August 26 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: KARINA Southwest of The Southern Tip Of Baja California

At 0:00 AM UTC, Low Pressure Area, Former Karina (1005 hPa) located at 15.9N 126.5W or 1030 NM west southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots.

Additional Information
====================
Karina hasn't been producing a significant mass of deep convection for 12-18 hours, and the last few visible images of the day suggest that the circulation is already becoming stretched due to its proximity to Hurricane Marie. Therefore, Karina is being declared a remnant low, and this is the last advisory. The official forecast shows the low opening up into a trough by 36 hours, but this could occur earlier.

Karina has turned southeastward, or 135/4 kt. The remnant low will turn eastward and east-northeastward during the next day as it moves within the southern part of Marie's circulation.

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.



Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
750. HadesGodWyvern
3:28 AM GMT on August 27, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
8:00 PM PDT August 26 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE West Of The Southern Tip Of Baja California Peninsula

At 0:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Marie (971 hPa) located at 21.6N 121.4W or 645 NM west of The southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
210 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 22.4N 123.3W - 70 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
24 HRS 23.6N 125.9W - 60 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS 26.5N 130.3W - Extratropical Low

Additional Information
==================
Marie's eye has completely filled in and disappeared in infrared satellite imagery while convective tops continue to warm. Dvorak numbers are slowly decreasing, and the initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt on this advisory. Marie is now moving over SSTs near 25C, and the hurricane will be over water as cold as 22C in about 48 hours. Therefore, a gradual spin-down of the circulation is expected during the next couple of days, and the cold water is likely to cause Marie to lose its deep convection and become post-tropical by late Thursday. The updated NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, and closely follows the intensity consensus.

The hurricane has continued to turn a little to the left, and the initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt. An unseasonably strong mid-tropospheric high is forecast to develop along the southern California/northern Baja coast during the next day or two, and this feature should cause Marie to turn toward the north-northwest by day 3. Once Marie becomes a remnant low, lower-level ridging to the north of the cyclone will cause it to slow down and turn westward by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is tightly clustered, especially through 72 hours, and no significant changes were required to the official track forecast.

Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja California peninsula and have reached the southern California coast. These swells are expected to persist for a couple of days and could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
749. HadesGodWyvern
9:30 PM GMT on August 26, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
2:00 PM PDT August 26 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE West Of The Southern Tip Of Baja California Peninsula

At 18:00 PM UTC, Hurricane Marie (968 hPa) located at 21.1N 120.3W or 585 NM west of The southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
210 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 21.9N 122.2W - 75 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
24 HRS 23.1N 124.7W - 60 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS 25.8N 129.4W - Extratropical Low

Additional Information
==================
Infrared satellite does not suggest much has changed with Marie during the day, with the cyclone still displaying a small cloud- filled eye. Microwave data do show that the inner eyewall has become closed again, so it appears the recent weakening trend has halted. Satellite estimates are mostly unchanged from 6 hours ago, so the initial wind speed will stay 85 kt. Although the inner core structure appears to have improved, Marie is moving quickly across much cooler waters, which should cause the hurricane to weaken soon. Guidance shows a slower decay than the last cycle, which is hard to believe given that Marie will be moving over waters cooler than 24C in 24 hours and will probably lose all convection within 48 hours. Thus the new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the last one, but now lies on the lower side of the guidance envelope.

The initial motion has shifted a bit leftward--295/13 kt. A mid-level ridge over Mexico should continue steering Marie on a west northwest to northwest track for the next couple of days. The hurricane is expected to slow and turn toward the north- northwest by day 4 due to it reaching the western periphery of the ridge, but then drift westward as the low-level ridge rebuilds to the northwest of Marie or its remnants. The official forecast is only slightly modified to the west at long range to account for the latest guidance.

Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja California peninsula, and are now reaching the southern California coast. These swells are expected to persist for a couple of days, and could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
748. HadesGodWyvern
9:25 PM GMT on August 26, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #56
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER TC KARINA (EP112014)
2:00 PM PDT August 26 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: KARINA Southwest of The Southern Tip Of Baja California

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Karina (1005 hPa) located at 16.2N 127.2W or 1055 NM west southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 15.8N 126.0W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 16.0N 124.5W - Low Pressure Area

Additional Information
==================
After a brief convection hiatus, a small band of thunderstorms has redeveloped in the southwestern quadrant. As a result, tropical depression status and a 25-kt intensity are being maintained for this advisory. Although the easterly shear induced by the large upper-level outflow pattern of Hurricane Marie located well to the northeast of Karina should act to suppress the development of any persistent deep convection after 12 hours, the cyclone could still produce intermittent convective bursts until the system opens up into a trough by Thursday.

The initial motion estimate is south-southeastward or 150/04 kt based on a combination of conventional and microwave satellite fixes. The small circulation of Karina is expected to be advected southeastward and eastward within the southern semicircle of Hurricane Marie over the next 24-36 hours as the the latter cyclone continues to lift out to the northwest. The only change to the previous advisory track has been the addition of points at 24 and 36 hours due to some of the models still depicting Karina as a small but closed remnant low at those times periods.

Karina is now the seventh-longest-lasting tropical cyclone in the eastern North Pacific basin during the satellite era.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
747. HadesGodWyvern
12:55 PM GMT on August 26, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
14:30 PM IST August 26 2014
=============================

A low pressure area would form over west central & adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal off northern Andhra Pradesh and­ southern Odisha coasts during next 48 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
746. HadesGodWyvern
12:53 PM GMT on August 26, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #54
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER TC KARINA (EP112014)
2:00 AM PDT August 26 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: KARINA Southwest of The Southern Tip Of Baja California

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Karina (1004 hPa) located at 17.0N 127.1W or 1030 NM west southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving east at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 16.6N 126.2W - Low Pressure Area

Additional Information
==================
Karina continues to produce sufficient organized convection to be considered a tropical cyclone despite ongoing easterly vertical wind shear caused by the upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie. The initial intensity remains 30 kt, in agreement with a partial ASCAT pass and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Due to the ongoing shear, Karina is expected to degenerate into a remnant low soon, and then be absorbed into the much larger Marie in 24 hours or so.

The initial motion is 100/3. The cyclone is embedded in westerly flow feeding into Marie, and a general east-southeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected until the cyclone is absorbed.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
745. HadesGodWyvern
12:50 PM GMT on August 26, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
2:00 AM PDT August 26 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE Southwest Of The Southern Tip Of Baja California Peninsula

At 6:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Marie (961 hPa) located at 19.9N 117.8W or 480 NM southwest of The southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
240 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 20.9N 119.5W - 75 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
24 HRS 21.9N 121.8W - 60 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS 24.2N 126.8W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS 27.3N 130.8W - Extratropical Low

Additional Information
==================
Microwave images indicate that Marie still has a double eyewall structure, though the outer eyewall is open on the north side. The eye of the hurricane remains fairly distinct in satellite images, but deep convection is not as intense as it was earlier. The initial intensity is lowered to 90 kt, following the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. An ASCAT pass around 0500 UTC indicated that despite the weakening, the wind field of Marie remains very large.

The hurricane is moving across a sharp sea surface temperature gradient, and it is expected to cross the 26 degree C isotherm later today. These cold waters, combined with a drier and more stable air mass, should cause Marie to continue weakening at a steady pace. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and shows Marie becoming a post-tropical cyclone by 72 hours when it is expected to be over water temperatures below 23 C.

Marie is moving northwestward at 12 kt. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion at about the same forward speed is forecast during the next few days while the system remains steered by mid-level ridging to its northeast. A slow down and turn toward the north-northwest is expected by the end of the forecast period when the weak system is steered by the lighter low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the south this cycle, toward the latest consensus aids.

Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja California peninsula, and will soon reach the southern California coast. These swells are expected to persist for a couple of days, and could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
744. HadesGodWyvern
9:38 PM GMT on August 25, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
2:00 PM PDT August 25 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE West of Clarion Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Hurricane Marie (939 hPa) located at 18.4N 115.8W or 425 NM southwest of The southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 11 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
270 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 19.4N 117.3W - 105 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 3)
24 HRS 20.6N 119.5W - 90 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 2)
48 HRS 22.7N 124.3W - 60 knots (Tropical Cyclone
72 HRS 25.5N 129.0W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
==================
Visible and microwave satellite images indicate that Marie still has concentric eyewalls, which are surrounded by another larger and almost closed ring of deep convection. Convective cloud tops have continued to gradually warm and become more asymmetric during the past few hours. As a result, Dvorak estimates have dropped, and the initial intensity is lowered to 115 kt based on a consensus of CI numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the ADT. A steady decrease in the winds is forecast to continue in the short term, but the weakening rate should quicken after Marie moves over sub-26C waters in about 24 hours. As a result, the hurricane is now expected to weaken to a tropical storm in about 48 hours and become post-tropical by 96 hours. Marie will be over SSTs around 22 deg C in about 72 hours, so it is possible that it could become post-tropical sooner than indicated in the official forecast. The weakening trend shown in the current NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one and is in line with the SHIPS and LGEM models through 48 hours. Forecast intensities at the end of the period are based more on the global models, which should have a better handle on the system during its post-tropical phase.

The initial motion remains 305/11 kt. Mid-level ridging will continue to steer Marie northwestward or west-northwestward through day 4. Once it becomes a remnant low on day 5, Marie is likely to turn northward and slow down. The track guidance has not changed on this forecast cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one.

Although Marie is expected to remain well offshore, very large swells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tonight and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
743. HadesGodWyvern
9:33 PM GMT on August 25, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #52
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER TC KARINA (EP112014)
2:00 PM PDT August 25 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: KARINA Southwest of The Southern Tip Of Baja California

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Karina (1004 hPa) located at 17.2N 127.6W or 1055 NM west southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving east at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 17.0N 127.2W - Low Pressure Area

Additional Information
==================
The upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie is strongly shearing Karina, though a persistent small area of deep convection continues in the southwestern quadrant of the cyclone. A direct hit from the ASCAT-B scatterometer at 1742Z indicates peak winds of about 30 kt, which is the initial intensity of Karina. Despite the system heading toward warmer waters, hostile vertical shear and dry air should cause Karina to become a remnant low in about 12 hours. Karina's remnant low should become absorbed within the circulation of the much larger Marie in about 36 hours. The intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS statistical models and is the same as that from the previous advisory.

The visible imagery and the ASCAT-B pass indicate that Karina is moving toward the east at 5 kt. This motion is somewhat unexpected as all of the guidance suggested an east-southeast to southeast heading today. The cyclone will be advected around the large circulation of Marie until Karina is absorbed. The track forecast, based upon a blend of the TVCE multi-model consensus and the previous advisory, is north of the previous official prediction because of the more poleward initial position than expected earlier.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
742. HadesGodWyvern
12:11 PM GMT on August 25, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #50
TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA (EP112014)
2:00 AM PDT August 25 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: KARINA Southwest of The Southern Tip Of Baja California

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Karina (1003 hPa) located at 17.2N 128.4W or 1095 NM west southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 17.1N 127.8W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression]
24 HRS 16.7N 127.1W - Low Pressure Area

Additional Information
==================
A small area of convection has developed just to the southwest of the center, probably a product of the diurnal maximum cycle. However, the deep convection that was earlier displaced well to the west-northwest has dissipated. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease and a blend of the T- and CI-numbers suggest an initial intensity of 35 kt. Moderate east-southeasterly vertical shear produced by Marie's large upper-level anticyclone to the east, is expected to further weaken Karina. Consequently, the cyclone should continue to spin down and become a post-tropical remnant low within the next 24 hours. The intensity forecast corresponds with the large-scale models and the SHIPS/LGEM statistical-dynamical guidance with dissipation or absorption forecast in 2-3 days.

Shortwave-infrared satellite images show that the best estimate of initial motion is 110/9, and this general motion around the western to southwestern periphery of Marie is expected through the entire period before dissipation. The official NHC forecast track is an update of the previous package and is based on a compromise of the GFEX and TVCE multi-model consensus.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
741. HadesGodWyvern
12:06 PM GMT on August 25, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
2:00 AM PDT August 25 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE Southeast of Clarion Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Marie (932 hPa) located at 17.3N 113.9W or 185 NM west southwest of Socorro Island has sustained winds of 125 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
270 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 18.3N 115.4W - 120 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 4)
24 HRS 19.6N 117.4W - 110 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 3)
48 HRS 22.0N 121.8W - 80 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
72 HRS 24.7N 126.8W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
==================
Marie has an impressive concentric eyewall structure in recent microwave images. The inner eyewall surrounds the 15 n mi diameter circular eye, and the outer one extends about 40 to 50 n mi from the center. In addition, a large curved band exists beyond the inner core and wraps across the southern portion of the circulation. The initial wind speed is set at 125 kt, using a blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. A pair of ASCAT passes around 0500 UTC confirmed the large wind field of Marie, with tropical storm force winds extending over 250 n mi away from the center.

Intensity fluctuations are likely today due to the ongoing eyewall replacement cycle. As mentioned in previous discussions, these internal dynamics are not predictable in terms of timing or how many occur. Regardless, Marie is expected to be a major hurricane for at least another 24 hours while it remains in an air mass of low shear and high moisture, and over 28-29 degrees Celsius water. After that time, however, Marie will be moving over much colder water and into a more stable atmosphere. These conditions should promote a steady or even rapid weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is mainly an update of the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

After the eye of the hurricane was wobbling around for much of the day yesterday, the cyclone seems to be on a smoother northwestward track now. The initial motion estimate is 300/10. A continued northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next 3 to 4 days while Marie remains steered by ridging to the north of the cyclone. A turn to the north-northwest is predicted by the end of the forecast period when the weakening system begins to move around the western periphery of the ridge. No significant changes were made to the previous advisory, and the current track forecast lies close to the multi-model consensus, TVCE.

Although Marie is expected to remain well offshore, very large swells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tonight and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
740. HadesGodWyvern
12:00 PM GMT on August 25, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
8:30 AM IST August 25 2014
================================

The low pressure area over east central Arabian sea and adjoining areas of coastal Karnataka and Maharashtra has become less marked.

A low pressure area is likely to form over west Central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal around August 28th.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
739. HadesGodWyvern
3:17 AM GMT on August 25, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #49
TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA (EP112014)
8:00 PM PDT August 24 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: KARINA West of The Southern Tip Of Baja California

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Karina (1002 hPa) located at 17.5N 129.3W or 1140 NM west southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 17.4N 128.2W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression]
24 HRS 17.2N 127.3W - Low Pressure Area

Additional Information
==================
Karina's cloud pattern continues to rapidly degrade, with the remaining deep convection located about 90 miles west northwest of the exposed center of circulation. The initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt based on a blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates and an earlier UW-CIMSS AMSU-A intensity estimation. Moderate southeasterly vertical shear, as a result of Marie's large upper-level anticyclone, should result in continued weakening to a depression in 12 hours. The cyclone is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours and ultimately dissipate or become absorbed by major hurricane Marie in 3 days or less, as indicated by the SHIPS and LGEM guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be 095/8, within the diminishing low- to mid westerly flow produced by post-tropical cyclone Lowell to the north. Karina should turn toward the east southeast around the 24 hour period as the cyclone is steered around the southwest periphery of approaching Hurricane Marie. The official NHC forecast track is nudged southward beyond the 24 hour period, following the trend in the GFEX and the TVCE guidance.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
738. HadesGodWyvern
3:10 AM GMT on August 25, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
8:00 PM PDT August 24 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE Southeast of Clarion Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Marie (927 hPa) located at 16.6N 112.8W or 170 NM southwest of Socorro Island has sustained winds of 130 knots with gusts of 160 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
270 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 17.5N 114.2W - 125 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 4)
24 HRS 18.9N 116.1W - 120 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 4)
48 HRS 21.4N 120.3W - 90 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 2)
72 HRS 23.9N 125.4W - 60 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
==================
Marie has likely peaked in intensity. Deep convection in the hurricane's central dense overcast has warmed over the eastern semicircle and become less symmetric. The eye has also become cloud-filled in last-light visible satellite imagery, and has cooled some in infrared imagery. A 2332 UTC SSMI/S pass suggested that an eyewall replacement is underway, with a secondary eyewall noted at around 60 n mi radius at that time. The initial intensity is lowered to 130 kt for this advisory, based on a blend of Dvorak intensity estimates from 0000 UTC.

The ongoing eyewall replacement could result in fluctuations of intensity in the short term for which there is little to no predictability. Regardless, Marie is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next day or two as it continues to move over relatively warm waters and through a moist, low-shear environment. Even though the shear should remain quite low after that time, Marie will be traversing considerably cooler waters and ingesting drier and more stable air. These factors should result in a rapid spin-down of the cyclone late in the forecast period, and remnant low status is now indicated on day 4. Considering the current reduction in intensity, the NHC wind speed forecast is lower than the previous one and lies between the multi-model consensus and the SHIPS model output.

After wobbling a bit toward the west or west-southwest earlier today, the eye of Marie has resumed a west-northwestward motion of 290/10. There have been no significant changes regarding the track forecast philosophy. Marie is expected to be steered on a west northwestward to northwestward course during the next few days around the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge extending into the subtropical eastern Pacific. After becoming aremnant low late in the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to turn north-northwestward and slow down. The latest track forecast is little to the right of the previous one, mostly as a result of Marie's discontinuous jog to the right earlier today.

Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico, very large swells will affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
737. HadesGodWyvern
9:49 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
India meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
17:30 PM IST August 24 2014
=================================

The low pressure area over east central Arabian sea and adjoining areas of coastal Karnataka and Maharashtra persists.

A low pressure area is likely to form over west Central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal around 28th
August
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
736. HadesGodWyvern
9:16 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #48
TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA (EP112014)
2:00 PM PDT August 24 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: KARINA West of The Southern Tip Of Baja California

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Karina (1000 hPa) located at 17.8N 130.4W or 1190 NM west of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 17.7N 129.1W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS 17.5N 127.9W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS 16.5N 126.1W - Low Pressure Area

Additional Information
==================
Strong vertical shear being induced by an upper-level high centered northeast of Karina continues to weaken the tropical storm. Deep convection continues in association with the cyclone, though it is occurring only over the western semi-circle and it has decreased in areal extent. In fact, in the last few visible images, the low-level center is popping out from underneath the thinning cirrus overcast. A "bulls-eye" ASCAT-B hit at 1802Z indicated a peak surface wind between 40 and 45 kt, so the initial intensity is set at 45 kt. Strong vertical shear should continue to afflict Karina, as the outflow from major hurricane Marie will soon begin to reach the tropical storm. The combination of high vertical shear, marginally warm SSTs, and fairly dry air should lead to a gradual weakening of the tropical cyclone. Karina should become a remnant low in about two days. However, the strong shear and mediocre thermodynamics may lead to remnant low status earlier. The intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM statistical models, and is a bit lower than that from the previous advisory due to the weakened initial condition of the cyclone.

The aforementioned ASCAT-B pass confirmed the rather small tropical-storm-force wind radii of Karina. A gradual reduction in the cyclone's size is anticipated as the cyclone winds down.

Karina is being steered eastward at 8 kt around the large circulation of post-tropical cyclone Lowell to its north-northeast. The center of the system is now well known, due to the ASCAT-B pass and the visible appearance of the low-level center. The steering influence of Lowell will diminish by tomorrow as the distance between the systems increases, and Karina should respond by slowing down and turning gradually to the east-southeast. In about 36 hours, Karina's track will mainly be influenced by the approaching large and powerful Marie. Karina or its remnant low should be accelerated toward the east until it becomes absorbed within Marie between two and three days. The forecast track is based upon the TVCN multi-model track consensus technique and is slightly faster than that issued in the previous advisory.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
735. HadesGodWyvern
9:11 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
2:00 PM PDT August 24 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE Southwest Of Socorro Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Hurricane Marie (918 hPa) located at 16.0N 112.2W or 180 NM south southwest of Socorro Island has sustained winds of 140 knots with gusts of 170 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
270 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T7.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 16.6N 113.7W - 140 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 5)
24 HRS 17.9N 115.4W - 135 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 4)
48 HRS 20.7N 119.4W - 105 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 3)
72 HRS 23.0N 124.5W - 70 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)

Additional Information
==================
Marie has developed a fairly steady-state structure, with a solid area of white (in the Dvorak satellite enhancement) surrounding a 10 n mi wide eye. Dvorak final-T numbers have risen to T7.0/140 kt from TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT, and that value is set as the initial intensity. This makes Marie the first category 5 hurricane in the eastern North Pacific basin since Hurricane Celia in 2010.

Unless Marie can develop even colder cloud tops in the convection surrounding the eye, continued strengthening is probably not likely. The SHIPS model shows additional intensification for the next 12-18 hours, but much of the contribution comes from persistence and not the environment itself. Plus, a 1709 UTC AMSU pass indicates that a secondary eyewall is already forming, making it likely that an eyewall replacement will occur during the next day or so. Therefore, fluctuations in intensity are expected in the short term, but the NHC intensity forecast keeps Marie as a major hurricane through 48 hours. After that time, the hurricane will quickly move over colder water, and it is likely to weaken to a tropical storm between day 3 and 4, and then become post-tropical by day 5. This scenario is not really different from the previous forecast, except maybe showing a little faster weakening after 48 hours in line with the most recent SHIPS and LGEM guidance.

Trochoidal motions appear to be influencing Marie's recent short term movement, but the hurricane's longer-term 12-hour motion is 270/12 kt. The track guidance remains tightly clustered and insists that Marie should resume a west-northwestward or even northwestward motion in the next 12-24 hours. That general trajectory should continue through day 4, with Marie turning north-northwestward by day 5 when it reaches the western edge of the subtropical ridge. As in the previous forecast, no significant changes to the NHC track forecast were required on this advisory.

Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico, very large swells will affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
734. HadesGodWyvern
6:19 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
8:00 AM PDT August 24 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE South Of Socorro Island

At 12:00 PM UTC, Hurricane Marie (929 hPa) located at 16.0N 111.4W or 170 NM south of Socorro Island has sustained winds of 130 knots with gusts of 160 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
220 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 16.5N 112.9W - 140 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 5)
24 HRS 17.6N 114.5W - 135 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 4)
48 HRS 20.3N 117.9W - 115 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 4)
72 HRS 22.5N 122.0W - 85 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 2)

Additional Information
==================
Marie's eye has cleared out and warmed during the past few hours, with very cold convective tops surrounding the center. As a result, TAFB and SAB measured data T-numbers of 7.0/140 kt, but both were constrained by Dvorak rules and settled on final-T estimates of T6.5/127 kt. Also, a UW-CIMSS intensity estimate from a 0938 AMSU pass was 126 kt. Based on these data, Marie's initial intensity is raised to 130 kt.

The 12-hour motion estimate is 285/13 kt, although Marie has actually been moving more westward during the past few hours. The hurricane is located to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends from Texas to the northern Baja peninsula, and this feature should propel Marie basically west-northwestward during the next 3-4 days. Thereafter, Marie will be located between strengthening ridging over northwestern Mexico and a weakness in the ridge leftover by Post-Tropical Cyclone Lowell, and it should begin to turn north-northwestward by day 5. There is very little spread among the track guidance, and the updated NHC forecast essentially lies between the previous forecast and the TVCE multi-model consensus, which has shifted a bit to the right beyond day 2.

Intensity fluctuations are always possible once hurricanes like Marie get this strong. Assuming unforeseen internal dynamics and/or an eyewall replacement do not take over soon, the environment around Marie should be able to support a little more strengthening during the next 12-24 hours. Thereafter, slow weakening is likely until about day 3 when Marie will begin weakening more quickly over waters colder than 26C and in a more stable air mass. The new NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity to account for the recent strengthening rate, but otherwise no significant changes were required.

Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico, very large swells will affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells will cause dangerous life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
733. HadesGodWyvern
6:14 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47
TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA (EP112014)
8:00 AM PDT August 24 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: KARINA Southwest of The Southern Tip Of Baja California

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Karina (993 hPa) located at 18.0N 131.4W or 1240 NM west of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 18.0N 130.1W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS 18.0N 128.7W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS 17.5N 127.3W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
72 HRS 16.9N 124.3W - Low Pressure Area

Additional Information
==================
Karina's deep convection has expanded some this morning, and the strong temperature gradient in the infrared imagery on the east side of the cyclone has weakened. Both would be indicative of the large vertical shear diminishing some, consistent with the CIMSS analysis of 5-10 kt shear. The GFS-based SHIPS shear, on the other hand, is diagnosed as being about 20 kt. The intensity estimates widely range from 45-75 kt, depending on whether a shear or embedded center pattern is used in the Dvorak technique. The initial intensity is lowered slightly to 55 kt, but this estimate has more than the usual uncertainty. Even if the shear has subsided some currently, this should pick up more shortly as the outflow from major hurricane Marie affects Karina. The combination of strong vertical shear, marginally warm SSTs, and fairly dry air should lead to at least a gradual - if not quick - weakening of the tropical cyclone. The intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF models and is quite similar to that from the previous advisory.

An ASCAT pass from late last night indicated tropical-storm-force winds extending out about 60 nm on the eastern semi-circle. The initial size is assessed the same as that previously, and a gradual reduction in tropical-storm-force wind radii is anticipated as the cyclone weakens.

Karina is being steered east-northeastward at 8 kt around the large circulation of post-tropical Lowell to its north-northeast. The absence of microwave imagery over Karina and the lack of visible imagery before sunrise makes the current position and motion somewhat unclear. The steering influence of Lowell will diminish in about a day as the distance between the systems increases, and Karina should respond by slowing down and turning gradually to the east-southeast. In about two days, Karina's track will mainly be influenced by the approaching very large and strong Marie. Karina should be accelerated along toward the east until it becomes absorbed within Marie in about three to four days. The forecast track is based upon a blend of the GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models and is slightly faster than that issued in the previous advisory.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
732. HadesGodWyvern
1:30 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
2:00 AM PDT August 24 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE Southeast Of Socorro Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Marie (944 hPa) located at 16.1N 109.9W or 365 NM west southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
220 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 16.6N 111.5W - 125 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 4)
24 HRS 17.3N 113.2W - 135 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 4)
48 HRS 19.8N 116.7W - 120 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 4)
72 HRS 22.4N 120.7W - 95 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 2)

Additional Information
==================
Marie continues to rapidly intensify. The eye of the hurricane has become much more distinct in recent satellite images, and very cold cloud tops surround the center. The inner core convective pattern is also quite symmetric, and a large curved band exists well to the south of the center. The initial wind speed estimate is 115 kt, a category 4 hurricane, which is based on a Dvorak classification of T6.0 from SAB.

The large scale conditions of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures should favor additional strengthening during the next day or so. However, it should be noted that with major hurricanes like Marie, intensity fluctuations are common due to internal dynamics, or eyewall replacement cycles, that are not easily forecast. The hurricane is expected to begin weakening in a couple of days when there will likely be some decrease in moisture and sea surface temperatures gradually lower. A more rapid weakening is predicted toward the end of the forecast period when Marie is forecast to move over water temperatures lower than 26 degrees Celsius. The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, given the observed strengthening, but shows a similar trend.

The intense hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt on the southwestern periphery of a deep layer ridge. The track forecast is fairly straight forward. A west-northwest to northwest motion is predicted during the next 5 days as ridging to the north of Marie remains the primary steering mechanism. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to the multi-model consensus.

A partial ASCAT pass indicated that the wind field of Marie has expanded significantly, and the wind radii have been adjusted accordingly. Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico, very large swells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow. These swells, which are likely to cause dangerous life-threatening surf, are forecast to spread northward along the Baja California coast during the next few days.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
731. HadesGodWyvern
1:25 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #46
TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA (EP112014)
2:00 AM PDT August 24 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: KARINA Southwest of The Southern Tip Of Baja California

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Karina (992 hPa) located at 17.9N 132.2W or 1285 NM west of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 18.0N 131.0W - 50 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS 18.0N 129.5W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS 17.9N 128.0W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
72 HRS 17.5N 127.0W - Low Pressure Area

Additional Information
==================
arina has the classic appearance of a sheared tropical cyclone, with a strong IR brightness temperature gradient on the east side of the storm. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS have continued to decrease and the initial intensity has subsequently been lowered to 60 kt. Karina is turning toward the east and the initial motion is estimated to be 65/6, though the motion is a little more uncertain for this forecast since the low-level center has become obscured. A general eastward motion is still expected for the next 36 to 48 hours hours. After that, the dynamical models have finally come into complete agreement that Karina will turn more toward the south once it begins to interact with, and circumnavigate, the large circulation of Hurricane Marie. Shortly after this interaction begins, Karina will be assimilated or completely strained out by the larger vortex. The official forecast has been shifted south, but still shows fairly slow movement at days 3 and 4 since the model spread remains large.

Given the decreasing SSTs and increasing vertical wind shear that dominate the environment around Karina, continued weakening appears to be inevitable. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that Karina will become a remnant low within the next 72 hours. No major changes were made to the intensity forecast, which remains near the intensity consensus, IVCN.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
730. HadesGodWyvern
3:27 AM GMT on August 24, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
LOW PRESSURE AREA, FORMER TC LOWELL (EP122014)
8:00 PM PDT August 23 2014
==============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Low Pressure Area, Former Lowell (1002 hPa) located at 24.7N 127.4W or 965 NM west of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The low is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Additional Information
==================
While the convection associated with Lowell is not totally gone, it is no longer organized enough spatially or temporally for the system to be considered a tropical cyclone. Thus, Lowell has degenerated into a remnant low. The low is expected to persist through the forecast period with a continued slow weakening and a generally west-northwestward track.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
729. HadesGodWyvern
3:24 AM GMT on August 24, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
8:00 PM PDT August 23 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE Southeast Of Socorro Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Marie (971 hPa) located at 15.7N 108.7W or 320 NM southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
110 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 16.2N 110.4W - 100 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 3)
24 HRS 16.8N 112.3W - 110 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 3)
48 HRS 18.8N 115.6W - 115 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 4)
72 HRS 21.4N 119.5W - 90 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 2)

Additional Information
==================
Marie's cloud pattern has become better organized since the last advisory. Pulsating convection within the cyclone's large central dense overcast has become more symmetric, and late-day visible satellite imagery showed an intermittent proto-eye. Several well-defined bands also wrap well around the circulation of Marie. A 2106 UTC GMI pass revealed a significant increase in the organization of hurricane's inner core since this morning, with a closed low-level ring of convection present then. An AMSU intensity estimate of 86 kt preceded a T5.0/90 kt Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB at 0000 UTC. The initial intensity is raised to 90 kt, the upper end of these estimates, based on some further increase in organization of the cyclone's satellite presentation since that time.

Marie has been traveling on a west-northwestward course or 295/12, with the current motion to the right of that 24 hours ago. Marie should be steered around the southwestern periphery of an expansive mid-level ridge stretching from the eastern United States into the eastern Pacific during the next 24 hours or so. After that, the hurricane will reach the western edge of this ridge and temporary slow down before the direction of motion becomes northwesterly through the remainder of the forecast period. The track guidance remains in very good agreement this cycle, and the forecast track was shifted only slightly to the right of the previous one by virtue of Marie's nearly northwesterly initial motion.

While large-scale conditions generally remain quite conducive for additional intensification, there is some disagreement with regard to how much northeasterly vertical shear is currently affecting Marie. The UW-CIMSS analyses indicate no more than 5-10 kt of northeasterly shear while SHIPS model output has consistently indicated around 15 kt. Regardless, the inner core structure of the hurricane and the favorable environmental conditions should allow for Marie's strengthening to major hurricane status, unless its intensification is interrupted by an eyewall replacement. interestingly, the bulk of the intensity guidance shows little additional intensification except the SHIPS output, possibly in response to the less-than-optimal shear. Even though the shear is forecast to diminish after 72 hours, sea surface temperatures along Marie's path should rapidly decrease and cause a rapid spin-down of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast remains above all of the intensity guidance through day 3 except the SHIPS model output but approaches the multi-model consensus IVCN after that time.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
728. HadesGodWyvern
3:20 AM GMT on August 24, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA (EP112014)
8:00 PM PDT August 23 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: KARINA Southwest of The Southern Tip Of Baja California

At 0:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Karina (988 hPa) located at 17.8N 132.8W or 1275 NM east of Hilo, Hawaii has sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 7 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
10 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 18.0N 131.7W - 60 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS 18.2N 129.9W - 50 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS 18.5N 128.0W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS 18.3N 127.5W - Low Pressure Area

Additional Information
==================
he appearance of Karina in visible and infrared satellite imagery has continued to deteriorate during the past several hours. The hurricane no longer has an eye, and increasing shear is beginning to restrict the upper-level outflow in the northeast quadrant of the circulation. Based on the degraded satellite appearance and a decrease in satellite intensity estimates, the intensity has been lowered to 65 kt. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast. Steady weakening is still expected for the next few days, particularly in light of the fact that Karina recently passed over the 25 deg SST isotherm. The dynamical models are in good agreement that only a low-level circulation will remain in about 72 hours.

Karina continues to move toward the northeast at about 7 kt, and this general motion should continue for the next day or two while the cyclone remains embedded within a large area of southwesterly flow to the south of Lowell. After 48 hours, the spread in the track guidance remains large. Most of the dynamical models have converged this cycle on the general solution that Karina will move close enough to the circulation of Marie to be advected southward before being absorbed or sheared. However, the extent and timing of this interaction remains highly uncertain. Since the track guidance has been exceptionally inconsistent from run to run over the last several forecast cycles, the official forecast has been conservatively nudged only slightly toward the southeast at days 3 and 4.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
727. HadesGodWyvern
9:42 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
2:00 PM PDT August 23 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE Southeast Of Socorro Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Hurricane Marie (979 hPa) located at 15.1N 107.6W or 300 NM southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
100 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 15.6N 109.4W - 90 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 2)
24 HRS 16.1N 111.4W - 100 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 3)
48 HRS 17.8N 114.8W - 115 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 4)
72 HRS 20.6N 118.3W - 100 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 3)

Additional Information
==================
Marie's rapid intensification has slowed some this afternoon. Symmetric, cold cloud tops are persisting in association with the hurricane and a ragged eye is just now starting to make an appearance in the visible imagery. Dvorak CI numbers from ADT, SAB, and TAFB have not changed over the last six hours, but with an eye evident the intensity is increased slightly to 80 kt. Continued intensification is expected, but how much is fairly uncertain. The SSTs, moisture, and convective instability are likely to continue being very conducive for the next three days. However, the GFS-based vertical shear within the SHIPS model suggests about 15 kt of deep-layer shear now and for the next three days. The forecast intensity is close to the SHIPS statistical model through three days, which is higher than any of the other guidance. It is of note that the GFDL dynamical model barely maintains Marie as a hurricane for the next three days, though this is considered an unlikely scenario at this time. By days four and five, Marie should be passing over cold waters and moving into a stable atmosphere. The forecast intensity at the long-lead times is close to the IVCN consensus. This official intensity prediction is slightly below that provided in the previous advisory from 48 hours onward.

TRMM and SSMIS microwave imagery provided evidence of the developing eye feature and allowed for a more accurate determination of the initial position and motion. The current motion is west-northwest at 10 kt, about the same as previously. Marie is primarily being steered by a deep-layer ridge to its northeast, which should continue being the main steering factor for the entire forecast period. The track guidance remains in very close agreement through day 5 and suggests more confidence than usual in the forecast track. The official track prediction at days four and five is shifted slightly westward compared to the previous advisory and is based upon the multi-model TVCN consensus technique.

It is of note that small-sized Hurricane Karina is now expected by most models to be absorbed into the circulation of Marie in about four days. While this process will lead to the dissipation of Karina, it should have little effect on the larger-sized Marie.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
726. HadesGodWyvern
9:31 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOWELL (EP122014)
2:00 PM PDT August 23 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: LOWELL West Of Baja California Peninsula

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Lowell (1000 hPa) located at 24.0N 127.0W or 940 NM west of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 24.5N 127.9W - Low Pressure Area

Additional Information
==================
Lowell is well on its way to becoming a post-tropical cyclone. The storm has lacked significant deep convection for nearly 12 hours and, if this trend continues, Lowell will likely be declared a post-tropical cyclone tonight. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt for this advisory based on the latest Dvorak CI number from TAFB. The weakening system is currently over 23 C waters and in a stable air mass. These unfavorable conditions should cause Lowell to degenerate into a remnant low soon. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to persist for several days while it gradually spins down.

The storm is moving northwestward at about 6 kt, steered by a low-level ridge to its north. A slight turn toward the west- northwest is expected tomorrow, and that general motion with an increase in forward speed is predicted through the remainder of the forecast period. There remains a considerable spread in the guidance due to model differences in forecasting the strength of the low-level north of Lowell. The GFS shows a more westward track while the ECMWF has a more northwestward motion. The NHC track forecast lies between these scenarios, and is close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
725. HadesGodWyvern
9:02 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #44
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA (EP112014)
2:00 PM PDT August 23 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: KARINA Southeast of Hawaii (The Big Island)

At 18:00 PM UTC, Hurricane Karina (988 hPa) located at 17.3N 133.5W or 1240 NM east of Hilo, Hawaii has sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 6 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
10 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 17.7N 132.4W - 60 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS 18.0N 130.7W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS 18.6N 128.2W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS 19.0N 127.7W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

Additional Information
==================
The eye of Karina has begun to fill during the past few hours, and deep convection has decreased slightly on the north side of the cyclone. A blend of the 1800 UTC Dvorak CI- and T-numbers still yields an initial wind speed estimate of 70 kt. Since that time, the cloud pattern of the cyclone has begun to deteriorate, suggesting that the predicted weakening trend may already be occurring. The hurricane is currently crossing the 26 deg C isotherm and dry air is wrapping around the circulation, as seen in total precipitable water imagery. The influence of these unfavorable thermodynamic factors should cause steady weakening to remnant low status in 3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is again an update of the previous one and lies close to the multi-model consensus.

Karina is turning toward the right in the broad southwesterly flow to the south of Lowell, and the latest initial motion estimate is 055/6. The models are coming into better agreement in showing Karina moving on a general east-northeasterly path with a decrease in forward speed before being absorbed into the much larger circulation of Hurricane Marie in 4 to 5 days. However, there is still some guidance that shows Karina interacting with Lowell,
which would result in a west-northwestward motion. Since most of the track guidance now favors the absorption of Karina by Marie, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted eastward and shows the cyclone becoming stationary at days 3 and 4.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
724. HadesGodWyvern
4:07 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE (EP132014)
8:00 AM PDT August 23 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: MARIE Southeast Of Socorro Island

At 12:00 PM UTC, Hurricane Marie (983 hPa) located at 14.6N 106.3W or 285 NM south southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 15.2N 107.9W - 90 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 2)
24 HRS 15.9N 110.0W - 100 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 3)
48 HRS 17.3N 113.5W - 120 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 4)
72 HRS 19.7N 117.0W - 105 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 3)

Additional Information
==================
Marie has been rapidly intensifying with a 30-kt increase since yesterday at this time. Symmetric, cold cloud tops are persisting in association with the hurricane, though an eye has yet to make an appearance. Dvorak CI numbers are increasing, and a blend of the ADT, SAB, and TAFB values indicate an intensity of 75 kt. Continued intensification is expected, but how much is fairly uncertain. The SSTs, moisture, and convective instability are likely to continue being very conducive for the next three days. The GFS-based vertical shear within the SHIPS model suggests about 10-15 kt of deep-layer shear currently and gradually increasing over next three days. However, the CIMSS shear analysis suggests substantially less shear now, which is more consistent with the symmetric appearance to the convection and the observed rapid intensification. The forecast intensity is close to the SHIPS statistical model through three days, which is higher than any of the other guidance. By days four and five, Marie should be passing over cold waters and moving into a stable atmosphere. The forecast intensity at the long-lead times is close to the IVCN consensus. This official intensity prediction is slightly below that provided in the previous advisory from 36 hours onward. Unfortunately, no new size information has been available and the wind radii analysis and prediction remain about the same.

The initial position is somewhat uncertain, due to no microwave passes recently and no eye being seen yet. However, the available fixes suggest a somewhat farther northward position than earlier analyzed. The current motion is west-northwest at 9 kt, slightly slower than previously. Marie is primarily being steered by a deep-layer ridge to its northeast, which should continue being the main steering factor for the entire forecast time. The track guidance is in very close agreement all the way to five days and suggests more confidence than usual in the forecast track. The official track prediction is just slightly northward of the previous advisory because of the initial shift in position, but is otherwise quite close in longitude.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
723. HadesGodWyvern
4:02 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOWELL (EP122014)
8:00 AM PDT August 23 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: LOWELL West Of Baja California Peninsula

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Lowell (1000 hPa) located at 23.7N 126.5W or 915 NM west of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 24.4N 127.5W - Extratropical Low

Additional Information
==================
Lowell has been devoid of deep convection since around 1000 UTC. If deep convection does not regenerate, which seems unlikely given that the cyclone is moving over SSTs around 23C, Lowell could become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The cyclone should gradually spin down during the next few days as it remains over cool SSTs and in a stable airmass.

The initial motion estimate remains 310/7 kt. Lowell is expected to turn west-northwestward tonight and continue moving generally west-northwestward through the period under the influence of a low-level ridge to the north. There continues to be a large spread in the track model guidance after 48 hours, with the ECMWF showing more poleward motion at days 4 and 5 while the GFS and GEFS ensemble mean show a more westward track. The new NHC track forecast is between the two camps and a little to the left of the previous advisory, trending toward the latest TVCE multi-model consensus.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
722. HadesGodWyvern
3:59 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA (EP112014)
8:00 AM PDT August 23 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: KARINA Southeast of Hawaii (The Big Island)

At 12:00 PM UTC, Hurricane Karina (988 hPa) located at 17.2N 134.1W or 1205 NM east of Hilo, Hawaii has sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 6 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
10 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 17.6N 133.1W - 65 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
24 HRS 18.2N 131.6W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS 19.0N 129.0W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS 20.3N 129.1W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

Additional Information
==================
The compact hurricane is maintaining its strength this morning. The eye of Karina has become a little more distinct during the past few hours and cloud tops remain quite cold to the south of the center. The initial wind speed is held at 70 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from UW-CIMSS. The hurricane will soon cross the 26 C isotherm, and total precipitable water imagery shows some dry air beginning to wrap around the circulation. These environmental conditions combined with some increase in shear should cause the weakening process to begin later today or tonight. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies fairly close to the intensity model consensus, IVCN.

Karina is moving northeastward at about 6 kt in the broad southwesterly flow to the south of much larger but weaker Tropical Storm Lowell. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected later today and that general motion should continue for the the next couple of days. Beyond that time, however, the models have differing solutions. The previous discussion outlined the varying scenarios of what could drive Karina northward and northwestward as it interacts with what is left of Lowell, and the possibility that Karina stalls or is driven further eastward due to its interaction with Hurricane Marie. The models are trending toward the latter scenario, and the NHC official track forecast shows a slower forward speed at days 3-5 to account for that information.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
721. HadesGodWyvern
1:19 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOWELL (EP122014)
2:00 AM PDT August 23 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: LOWELL West Of Baja California Peninsula

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Lowell (998 hPa) located at 23.4N 126.0W or 885 NM west of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 24.1N 127.0W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 25.0N 128.1W - Low Pressure Area

Additional Information
==================
Convection associated with Lowell has continued to wane overnight with only a small convective band noted well north of the center in the most recent microwave image. Recent ASCAT data supports an initial wind speed of 40 kt. Lowell should continue to gradually weaken during the next several days while it moves over colder water and into a drier and more stable airmass. The convection is likely to dissipate later today, and Lowell is expected to become a remnant low within 24 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 310/7 kt. The cyclone is forecast to continue moving northwestward today, but should turn west- northwestward in 24 to 36 hours when it comes under the influence of a low-level ridge to the north. There is very large spread in the track guidance after 48 hours, with the ECMWF taking the remnant low northwestward, while most the other models show a westward or west southwestward track. Since the majority of the guidance and the TVCE consensus has shifted to the left, the NHC track at 72 hours and beyond has been adjusted southward, but it still remains north of the multi-model consensus.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593

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