May 1 2014 - June 30 2014

By: HadesGodWyvern , 1:12 AM GMT on May 01, 2014

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Northwest Pacific Ocean
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Area of Responsibility
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RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
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April
T201405.Tapah - 980 hPa

June
T201406.Mitag/Ester - 994 hPa
T201407.Hagibis - 994 hPa

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North Central Pacific Ocean
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Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
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Northeastern Pacific Ocean
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Area of Responsibility
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RSMC: National Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
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May
EP01.Amanda - 932 hPa

June
EP02.Boris - 999 hPa
EP03.Cristina - 935 hPa
EP04.DOUGLAS - Continued into July
EP05.ELIDA - Continued into July

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Northern Indian Ocean
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Area of Responsibility
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RSMC: India Meteorological Department

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
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May
BOB02.NONAME - 1000 hPa

June
ARB01.Nanauk - 986 hPa

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Southwestern Indian Ocean
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Area of Responsibility
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RSMC: Mauritius Meteorological Services
Seychelles Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

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233. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:04 AM GMT on July 01, 2014
HadesGodWyvern has created a new entry.
232. HadesGodWyvern
11:16 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA (EP052014)
2:00 PM PDT June 30 2014
===========================

SUBJECT: ELIDA South Of Southeastern Mexico

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Elida (1003 hPa) located at 17.4N 104.2W or 95 NM south of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
60 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS: 17.6N 104.7W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 17.6N 104.9W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 17.2N 104.9W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 17.1N 105.6W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
===================
Satellite imagery indicates that the overall cloud pattern associated with Elida has changed little, with the main convection displaced in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation due to moderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear. Despite the rather disheveled looking cloud appearance, two ASCAT passes at 1606 UTC and 1700 UTC indicated that Elida still possessed a well-defined circulation center and 45-kt winds in the southeastern quadrant. Therefore, the initial intensity is being maintained at 45 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 295/03 kt. The aforementioned ASCAT wind data indicate that Elida has slowed down considerably during the past 6 hours. Most of the reliable models have been predicting that a sharp decrease in the forward speed would occur in previous model runs, so the official forecast has followed this scenario for the next 48 hours since Elida now appears to be caught in a break in the east-west oriented subtropical ridge located across south-central Mexico. It is possible that Elida could even stall and move erratically, but the cyclone and its strongest winds are expected to remain offshore of the coast of Mexico during the next 2 days. After that, the subtropical ridge is forecast to rebuild to the north of the cyclone, which should induce a westward motion at a faster forward speed away from Mexico. The official track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory track, and is close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.

Moderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to affect the cyclone for at least the next 3 days, which should prevent any significant intensification from occurring despite the very warm sea-surface temperatures and moist mid-level environment surrounding the storm. By days 4 and 5, however, the shear is forecast to decrease significantly, which should allow for some strengthening of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the multi-model consensus IVCN for the next 72 hours, and then follows a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance after that.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
============================
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING remains in effect for Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
231. HadesGodWyvern
11:13 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS (EP042014)
2:00 PM PDT June 30 2014
===========================

SUBJECT: DOUGLAS Near Clarion Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Douglas (1003 hPa) located at 17.7N 114.5W or 404 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
100 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS: 18.3N 115.4W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 19.0N 116.3W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 19.6N 117.3W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
72 HRS: 19.6N 118.2W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)

Additional Information
===================
Douglas is holding its own. The main deep convection associated with the storm is located in a long band wrapping around the southern semicircle of the circulation. However, cloud top temperatures in that band have been slowly warming. A 1700 UTC ASCAT pass winds showed around 30 kt winds, primarily in an area about 100 n mi southeast of the center. Dvorak intensity are 2.5 from both TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC. Based on these classifications and the assumption that there could be somewhat higher winds not
captured in the ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is held at 35 for this advisory. Time has run out for Douglas to intensify further. Even though there is virtually no shear, the system is already ingesting drier and more stable air mass as it moves over increasingly cooler waters. The NHC intensity forecast is a bit lower than the previous one and shows remnant low status in 4 days, though this potentially could occur sooner.

The initial motion is 305/09. Douglas is moving into a weakness in the subtropical ridge to its north, which should result in a continued northwestward motion but at considerably slower forward speed. Once the cyclone decouples and become a shallow vortex, a turn toward the west is expected prior to dissipation. The NHC track forecast is adjusted only slightly to the north, closer to the multi-model consensus as well as the ECMWF and GFS solutions.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
230. HadesGodWyvern
6:43 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA (EP052014)
8:00 AM PDT June 30 2014
===========================

SUBJECT: ELIDA South Of Southeastern Mexico

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Elida (1003 hPa) located at 17.3N 103.9W or 105 NM south of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS: 17.9N 104.2W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.2N 104.7W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 17.9N 105.0W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 17.8N 105.3W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
===================
Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that the low pressure area offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico has become better organized overnight. First-light visible imagery shows a partially exposed low-level center of circulation on the northwestern edge of a deep convective cloud mass due to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear. In addition, ship A8ER9, the Zim Savannah, reported 50-knot winds somewhat above 10 meters at 0900 UTC in the northwestern quadrant, and then reported 42 kt at 1200 UTC in the southeastern quadrant after it passed through the center. Based primarily on the aforementioned ship data, the initial intensity estimate is set at 45 knots.

The initial motion estimate is 310/10. Elida should move northwestward today, parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico, in response to a weakness in the subtropical ridge extending southwestward from the Gulf of Mexico. However, the forward motion of the storm should markedly decrease after that once the cyclone reaches a col area, with a west-southwestward or southwestward drift shown by global models in a day or two. The subtropical ridge is forecast to rebuild to the north of Elida later in the forecast period, which should allow for Elida to move westward away from the coast at a faster forward speed. The NHC track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus TVCE but not as fast as the ECMWF by day 5.

Although the sea surface temperatures are very high along the track of Elida, strong upper-level northwesterly winds associated with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico should inhibit significant intensification during the next few days. After about 72 hours, the shear is forecast to decrease, but by then the cyclone should be embedded in a somewhat drier and more stable environment. The NHC intensity forecast is near the multi-model consensus IVCN.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
============================
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect for Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
229. HadesGodWyvern
6:36 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS (EP042014)
8:00 AM PDT June 30 2014
===========================

SUBJECT: DOUGLAS Southeast of Clarion Island

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Douglas (1003 hPa) located at 17.4N 114.0W or 404 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
100 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS: 18.1N 115.1W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.7N 115.9W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 19.3N 117.1W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 19.5N 117.9W - 35 knots (Tropical Depression)

Additional Information
===================
Douglas has changed little in organization during the past 6 hours. The cyclone has maintained a broad inner core with most of the convective banding features being well removed from the center. The current intensity has been held at 35 knots, which is in agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.

The initial motion estimate is 305/08 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Douglas is expected to move west-northwestward for the next 48 hours or so toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone, which will result in a gradual decrease in Douglas' forward speed. By late in the forecast period, the ridge is expected to strengthen, which should turn the cyclone more westward as it comes under the influence of moderate low-level trade wind flow. This motion will bring Douglas over cooler waters, causing the cyclone to gradually weaken. The official forecast track is a little to the right of the previous advisory track, but only to
account for the more northward initial position. Otherwise, the new forecast track closely follows the multi-model consensus TCVE.

Although the vertical wind shear is expected to remain weak at less than 10 kt for the next 3 days or so, the broad inner-core wind field and sea-surface temperatures decreasing to less than 27C argues for only slight intensification over the next couple of days. After that, Douglas will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and into a drier and more stable thermodynamic environment, which should result in steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and follows the consensus model IVCN.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
228. HadesGodWyvern
1:38 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:00 AM PDT June 30 2014
===========================

Thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 180 miles south southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to show signs of organization. Latest satellite data, plus coastal surface observations and ship reports, indicate that the low is producing tropical-storm-force winds. However, the system still lacks a well-defined circulation center. Upper-level winds are not particularly conducive for additional development, but only a slight increase in organization could result in the formation of a tropical storm during the next day or so while the system moves west northwestward at about 10 mph.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Monday: HIGH
Tuesday: HIGH
Wednesday: HIGH
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
227. HadesGodWyvern
1:36 PM GMT on June 30, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS (EP042014)
2:00 AM PDT June 30 2014
===========================

SUBJECT: DOUGLAS Southeast of Clarion Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Douglas (1003 hPa) located at 16.6N 113.1W or 417 NM south southwest of the southern tip of Baja California peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
100 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS: 17.2N 114.3W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.0N 115.4W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 18.8N 116.8W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 19.0N 117.5W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
===================
Douglas has changed little in organization since the last advisory package. The tropical cyclone has some banding features, but continues to have limited deep convection near its center. The current intensity is held at 35 kt in agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and data from an ASCAT overpass. This is only slightly below the latest objective Dvorak estimate from UW/CIMSS.

Latest center fixes show a considerable deceleration, and the initial motion estimate is 300/8, much slower than previous estimates. Apparently there has been a substantial weakening of the mid-level ridge to the north of Douglas. The global models show a slight weakness in the mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone for the next 72 hours or so. This should result in an even slower forward motion toward the west-northwest or northwest. Late in the forecast period, the ridge strengthens somewhat to the north of Douglas, and this, along with steering by the low-level flow, should cause the weakening cyclone to turn toward the west with some increase in forward speed. The latest official forecast is slower than the previous one, and quite close to the newest dynamical model consensus.

The storm is already moving over slightly cooler waters, but there is well-defined upper-tropospheric outflow over the system. Vertical shear should remain weak for the next few days, and given the favorable dynamics, some strengthening is still forecast. The official wind speed forecast is a little above the latest intensity model consensus, IVCN.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
226. HadesGodWyvern
3:04 AM GMT on June 30, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS (EP042014)
8:00 PM PDT June 29 2014
===========================

SUBJECT: DOUGLAS Southeast of Clarion Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Douglas (1003 hPa) located at 16.4N 113.0W or 425 NM south southwest of the southern tip of Baja California peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
100 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS: 17.0N 114.4W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 17.9N 115.7W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 18.6N 117.2W - 50 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 18.8N 118.2W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
===================
The satellite appearance of the tropical cyclone has improved during the past several hours. Deep convection has increased near the center and the primary band wraps farther around the southern and southwestern portions of the circulation. Dvorak T-numbers are a consensus 2.5 from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is increased to 35 knots. Douglas becomes the fourth tropical storm of the 2014 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.

Although Douglas has recently been moving more westward, the longer-term initial motion estimate is 295 degrees at 14 knots. Douglas is expected to move west-northwestward during the next few days while it remains to the south of a mid- to upper-level ridge that extends from the southwestern United States westward across the eastern Pacific. The ridge is forecast to weaken during the next couple of days which should cause a reduction in forward speed of the tropical cyclone. Later in the period, Douglas should turn westward as it weakens and becomes a more shallow system. Although the track guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there is quite a bit of spread later in the period as to how far north Douglas gets before making the westward turn. For now, the NHC track forecast remains along the southern edge of the model envelope. This is close to the previous advisory and is in good agreement with the latest ECMWF.

Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. The main inhibiting factor is still likely to be the large and sprawling structure of the cyclone. After that time, Douglas will be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a more stable environment. This should cause gradual weakening and the system is forecast to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
225. HadesGodWyvern
1:39 AM GMT on June 30, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
500 PM PDT June 29 2014
===========================

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 140 miles south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, have become better organized today. Although upper-level winds are not particularly conducive for additional development, only a slight increase in organization could result in the formation of a tropical depression during the next day or so. Later this week, upper-level winds could become a little more favorable for development while the system moves west northwestward at about 10 mph.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Sunday: LOW
Monday: MODERATE
Tuesday: MODERATE
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
224. HadesGodWyvern
10:49 PM GMT on June 29, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP042014
2:00 PM PDT June 29 2014
===========================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Southwest of Socorro Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1005 hPa) located at 16.5N 111.9W or 400 NM south southwest of the southern tip of Baja California peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS: 17.0N 113.6W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 17.6N 115.0W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
===================
Satellite images suggest that the depression's cloud pattern has not become better organized since this morning. Deep convection near the center has decreased, while convection remains concentrated in a long band over the western semicircle of the circulation. A partial ASCAT overpass at 1722 UTC continues to indicate a large and sprawling cyclonic envelope associated with the depression, with the strongest winds well removed from the center of circulation. Dvorak intensity estimates are a 2.5 and 2.0 from TAFB and SAB, respectively, at 1800 UTC. Given the lack of change in the system's organization, the initial intensity estimate is maintained at 30 knots for this advisory.

The center is still not obvious, even in visible satellite imagery, and thus the initial motion estimate, or 295/14, is as uncertain as it was previously. The cyclone should continue to move at a fast clip on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge. This ridge is forecast to weaken and shift westward during the next couple of days when a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moves into the California coast. This should cause a notable reduction in the forward speed of the cyclone during this time, with the track becoming more westerly after that once the storm becomes more shallow in nature. The NHC track forecast remains on the left side of the guidance envelope, slightly to the left of and slower than the previous one through 36 hours. The forecast track is adjusted to the right and is slower beyond 36 hours but is not as far right as the ECMWF, GFS, and multi-model consensus TVCE.

Low shear and warm waters along the depression's track should favor intensification for another day or possibly two, but the large size and slow evolution of inner core suggests that any strengthening will only be gradual. Cooler waters and a drier and more stable atmosphere should bring any intensification to a halt in about two days, with slow but steady weakening after that time in the absence of any significant shear. The thermodynamics should become increasingly unfavorable late in the forecast period, and remnant low status is now forecast on day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is a bit lower than the previous one and close to the multi-model consensus IVCN through 72 hours but a bit lower after that time.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
223. HadesGodWyvern
10:45 PM GMT on June 29, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 AM PDT June 29 2014
===========================

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated and better organized in association with a weak low pressure area located a couple of hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, this morning. The proximity of this disturbance to Tropical Depression Four-E could limit development during the next day or two while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. However, environmental conditions are expected to become favorable for slow development after that time.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Sunday: LOW
Monday: LOW
Tuesday: MODERATE

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
222. HadesGodWyvern
2:04 PM GMT on June 29, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:00 AM PDT June 29 2014
===========================

A weak area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at around 10 mph. The proximity of this disturbance to Tropical Depression Four-E may limit development during the next couple of days, but environmental conditions are expected to become favorable for slow development after that time.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Sunday: LOW
Monday: LOW
Tuesday: LOW
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
221. HadesGodWyvern
2:02 PM GMT on June 29, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP042014
2:00 AM PDT June 29 2014
===========================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Southeast of Socorro Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 15.3N 108.8W or 460 NM south of the southern tip of Baja California peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS: 16.0N 110.8W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 16.7N 113.1W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
===================
The tropical cyclone remains rather broad and sprawling early this morning, with some deep convective banding features trying to develop. Data from an ASCAT overpass suggests that the system does not yet have strong winds very close to the center, and that it is below tropical storm strength. This is also in agreement with Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The current intensity is held at 30 kt based on those estimates.

The depression continues to move fairly quickly toward the west-northwest, or about 290/14, due to a strong mid-level high pressure area that is currently situated to the north of the cyclone. Global models predict that this high pressure area will shift westward during the next few days, with a mid-level weakness developing to the north of the tropical cyclone later in the forecast period. Consequently, the system should gradually slow its forward speed within the next couple of days. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and fairly close to the latest ECMWF solution.

The broad nature of the cyclone and lack of an inner core argues against any rapid strengthening. Nonetheless, vertical shear is forecast to remain low and the system will be traversing sufficiently warm waters to allow for strengthening during the next few days. The official wind speed forecast is very similar to the latest Decay-SHIPS guidance through 72 hours and close to the intensity model consensus thereafter.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
220. HadesGodWyvern
3:34 AM GMT on June 29, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP042014
8:00 PM PDT June 28 2014
===========================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Southeast of Socorro Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 14.6N 107.4W or 317 NM southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS: 15.4N 109.5W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 16.1N 112.2W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
===================
Recent microwave images show that deep convection associated with the depression is only loosely organized in bands while a new burst of convection is developing about 100 nm north of the estimated center. Since the structure has not improved much since the last advisory, the intensity is being held at 30 kt, which is supported by a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.

The depression is located to the south of an anomalously strong mid-level ridge which runs east-west across northern Mexico and the adjacent Pacific. As a result, the depression is moving quickly to the west-northwest with an initial motion of 285/12 kt. Further acceleration is anticipated in the next 12-24 hours as the depression gets closer to the strongest part of the ridge. After 24 hours, the ridge is forecast to shift westward and become anchored near 25N 135W, which will tend to cause the depression to slow down in the latter part of the forecast period. The track models are in generally good agreement in the eventual path of the cyclone but do diverge on forward speed by days 3 through 5. The biggest outlier is the GFDL, which turns the depression northeastward toward Mexico in response to a more significant break in the ridge. The GFDL solution is disregarded, and the updated track forecast is relatively unchanged from the previous one.

Relatively low vertical shear, a moist environment, and warm sea surface temperatures favor strengthening during the next few days. Rapid intensification is not expected in the short term due to the sprawling nature of the depression, but once the cyclone becomes more consolidated, strengthening should be a little quicker. The updated NHC forecast shows a slightly faster strengthening rate between 12-48 hours and is just under the SHIPS guidance. By day 3, a more stable and drier air mass, as well as cooler ocean water, will likely end any intensification and then cause gradual weakening by the end of the forecast period.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
219. HadesGodWyvern
12:29 AM GMT on June 29, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:00 PM PDT June 28 2014
===========================

A small area of low pressure located several hundred miles south southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next few days while it moves west northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Saturday: LOW
Sunday: MODERATE
Monday: MODERATE
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
218. HadesGodWyvern
11:50 PM GMT on June 28, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP042014
2:00 PM PDT June 28 2014
===========================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression South of Southwestern Mexico

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 14.5N 105.8W or 282 NM south southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS: 15.3N 107.5W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 16.1N 110.5W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
===================
Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure southwest of Mexico has enough banded convective organization and center definition to be declared a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set to 30 knots in agreement with an ASCAT-B pass from 1602 UTC.

The large-scale environment looks favorable for strengthening, with an upper-level anticyclone located just east of the center, along with plenty of warm water. However, the depression has a rather large circulation envelope and radius of maximum winds, which could preclude anything more than gradual strengthening. Guidance is split, with the LGEM/SHIPS showing a strong tropical storm, while the HWRF/GFDL keep the system weaker through the first few days of the forecast. The NHC prediction is a little below the intensity consensus at first to account for the initial structure, then is above the consensus on Days 2/3 under the assumption the system eventually consolidates. Some weakening seems likely at longer ranges due to cooler waters and possible dry air aloft.

The initial motion of the cyclone is 295/10. A ridge currently over the eastern Pacific and northern Mexico is forecast to build eastward and strengthen over the next couple of days, which should cause the cyclone to accelerate and take a slight leftward bend by Monday. The guidance is in good agreement and the NHC track forecast is close to the model consensus during this time. Afterward, there is much uncertainty in the forecast due to a possible interaction with invest EP97 to the east, along with the ridge likely weakening along 120W. The model solutions become rather divergent, ranging from a slow southward motion from the HWRF/GFDL to a moderate westward motion from the ECMWF/GEFS. The NHC forecast at long range will show a slow westward course, more in line with the ECMWF/GEFS solutions, and is west of the track consensus.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
217. HadesGodWyvern
11:44 PM GMT on June 28, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 AM PDT June 28 2014
===========================

A small area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next few days while it moves west northwestward bor northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Saturday: LOW
Sunday: LOW
Monday: MODERATE
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
216. HadesGodWyvern
1:58 PM GMT on June 28, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:00 AM PDT June 28 2014
===========================

A broad low centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. The low's circulation is gradually becoming better defined, and environmental conditions appear conducive for the development of a tropical depression by early next week while the system moves west northwestward at about 10 mph.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Saturday: MODERATE
Sunday: MODERATE
Monday: HIGH


A large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers extends several hundred miles south of Central America and southeastern Mexico. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days while it moves west northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Saturday: LOW
Sunday: LOW
Monday: LOW
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
215. HadesGodWyvern
6:59 AM GMT on June 28, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 PM PDT June 27 2014
===========================

Broad low pressure centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The low's circulation is gradually becoming better defined, and environmental conditions appear conducive for the development of a tropical depression by early next week while the system moves west northwestward at about 10 mph.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Friday: LOW
Saturday: MODERATE
Sunday: MODERATE

A large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers extends several hundred miles south of Central America and southeastern Mexico. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Friday: LOW
Saturday: LOW
Sunday: LOW
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
214. HadesGodWyvern
3:34 AM GMT on June 28, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:00 PM PDT June 27 2014
===========================

Broad low pressure centered a few hundred miles south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The low's circulation is gradually becoming better defined, and environmental conditions appear conducive for the development of a tropical depression by early next week while the system moves west northwestward at about 10 mph.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Friday: LOW
Saturday: MODERATE
Sunday: MODERATE

A large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers extends several hundred miles south of Central America and southeastern Mexico. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Friday: LOW
Saturday: LOW
Sunday: LOW
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
213. HadesGodWyvern
9:33 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 AM PDT June 27 2014
===========================

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Friday: LOW
Saturday: MODERATE
Sunday: MODERATE
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
212. HadesGodWyvern
12:36 AM GMT on June 27, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:00 PM PDT June 26 2014
===========================

Cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms extend for several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico and Central America. An area of low pressure is expected to form within this region of disturbed weather over the weekend, and conditions appear favorable for this system to become a tropical cyclone early next week while it moves west northwestward.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Thursday: LOW
Friday: LOW
Saturday: LOW
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
211. HadesGodWyvern
7:22 PM GMT on June 26, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 AM PDT June 26 2014
===========================

An area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms extends for several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico and Central America. An area of low pressure is expected to form by this weekend within this region of disturbed weather south of the coast of Mexico, and conditions appear favorable for this system to become a tropical cyclone by early next week while it moves west northwestward.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Thursday: LOW
Friday: LOW
Saturday: LOW
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
210. HadesGodWyvern
12:22 PM GMT on June 26, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:00 AM PDT June 26 2014
===========================

An area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms extends for several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico and Central America. An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days within this region of disturbed weather south of the coast of Mexico, and conditions appear favorable for this system to become a tropical cyclone by late this weekend or early next week while it moves west northwestward.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Thursday: LOW
Friday: LOW
Saturday: LOW
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
209. HadesGodWyvern
2:25 AM GMT on June 26, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:00 PM PDT June 25 2014
===========================

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extends for several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico and Central America. An area of low pressure is expected to form within this region of disturbed weather to the south of the coast of Mexico in a couple of days, and conditions appear favorable for this system to become a tropical cyclone over the weekend while it moves.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Wednesday: LOW
Thursday: LOW
Friday: LOW
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
208. HadesGodWyvern
7:58 PM GMT on June 25, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 AM PDT June 25 2014
===========================

An area of low pressure is expected to form to the south of the coast of Mexico in a couple of days, and conditions appear favorable for this system to become a tropical cyclone over the weekend while it moves west northwestward.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Wednesday: VERY LOW
Thursday: LOW
Friday: LOW
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
207. HadesGodWyvern
6:51 AM GMT on June 25, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 PM PDT June 24 2014
===========================

An area of low pressure is expected to form to the south of the coast of Mexico later this week, and conditions appear favorable for some development of this system by the weekend while it moves west northwestward.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Tuesday: VERY LOW
Wednesday: VERY LOW
Thursday: LOW
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
206. HadesGodWyvern
9:41 PM GMT on June 24, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 AM PDT June 24 2014
===========================

A low pressure system is expected to form to the south of Mexico late this week, and development of this system is possible by the weekend while it moves west northwestward.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Tuesday: VERY LOW
Wednesday: VERY LOW
Thursday: LOW
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
205. HadesGodWyvern
6:22 AM GMT on June 24, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 PM PDT June 23 2014
===========================

A weak area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Development of this system is not expected while it moves little during the next day or two.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Monday: LOW
Tuesday: LOW
Wednesday: LOW

A low pressure system is expected to form to the south of Mexico late this week, and development of this system is possible by the weekend while it moves west northwestward.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Monday: VERY LOW
Tuesday: VERY LOW
Wednesday: LOW
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
204. HadesGodWyvern
8:27 PM GMT on June 23, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 AM PDT June 23 2014
===========================

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for development of this system during the next day or so, but are expected to become less favorable thereafter while the system slows down and turns northwestward.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Monday: LOW
Tuesday: LOW
Wednesday: MODERATE
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
203. HadesGodWyvern
12:06 AM GMT on June 23, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:00 PM PDT June 22 2014
===========================

Satellite wind data indicate that a low pressure system located about 350 miles south southeast of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico is gradually becoming better defined. Although thunderstorm activity has been increasing near the center during the past few hours, environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for additional development to occur during the next day or so while the disturbance moves northward.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Sunday: LOW
Monday: LOW
Tuesday: MODERATE
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
202. HadesGodWyvern
1:51 PM GMT on June 22, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:00 AM PDT June 22 2014
===========================

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a weak area of low pressure located about 400 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Upper-level winds are unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation, and development of this system is becoming unlikely while it moves generally northward at around 10 mph.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Sunday: LOW
Monday: LOW
Tuesday: LOW
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
201. HadesGodWyvern
11:52 PM GMT on June 21, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:00 PM PDT June 21 2014
===========================

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a weak area of low pressure located about 550 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Upper-level winds are becoming increasingly unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation, and any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves northward at around 10 mph.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Saturday: LOW
Sunday: LOW
Monday: LOW
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
200. HadesGodWyvern
7:10 PM GMT on June 21, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 AM PDT June 21 2014
===========================

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a weak area of low pressure located about 650 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Although this system still has some potential for development today or Sunday, upper-level winds are becoming increasingly hostile for tropical cyclone formation while the system moves northward at 5 to 10 mph.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Saturday: LOW
Sunday: LOW
Monday: MODERATE
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
199. HadesGodWyvern
1:09 PM GMT on June 21, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:00 AM PDT June 21 2014
===========================

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located about 700 miles south southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has become a little less organized during the past several hours. Although this system still has some potential for development today or Sunday, upper-level winds are becoming increasingly unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation while the system moves northward at 5 to 10 mph.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Saturday: LOW
Sunday: LOW
Monday: MODERATE
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
198. HadesGodWyvern
1:20 AM GMT on June 21, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:00 PM PDT June 20 2014
===========================

Shower and thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become better organized in association with a nearly stationary low pressure system located about 725 miles south southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Although upper-level winds are favorable, proximity to dry air in the northwestern portion of the low could inhibit significant development of this disturbance. Upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive on Sunday for tropical cyclone formation to occur while the system moves northward at 5 to 10 mph.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Friday: MODERATE
Saturday: MODERATE
Sunday: MODERATE
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
197. HadesGodWyvern
7:15 PM GMT on June 20, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 AM PDT June 20 2014
===========================

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 750 miles south southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. However, upper-level winds are expected to become less favorable for development during the next couple of days while the system begins to move northward at 5 to 10 mph.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
============================
Friday: LOW
Saturday: LOW
Sunday: LOW
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
196. HadesGodWyvern
9:46 PM GMT on June 19, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
DEVELOPED LOW, FORMER TC HAGIBIS (T1407)
3:00 AM JST June 20 2014
==============================

Sea Far East Of Japan

At 18:00 PM UTC, Low, Former Hagibis (994 hPa) located at 33.0N 155.0E. The low is reported as moving east northeast at 20 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
195. HadesGodWyvern
11:08 AM GMT on June 19, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
DEVELOPING LOW, FORMER TC HAGIBIS (T1407)
15:00 PM JST June 19 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: Extratropical Cyclone Sea East Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Low, Former Hagibis (988 hPa) located at 33.0N 151.0E. The extratropical low is reported as moving east northeast at 25 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
194. HadesGodWyvern
2:53 AM GMT on June 19, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
DEVELOPING LOW, FORMER TC HAGIBIS (T1407)
9:00 AM JST June 19 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: Extratropical Cyclone Sea East Of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Low, Former Hagibis (992 hPa) located at 33.0N 148.0E. The extratropical low is reported as moving east at 25 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
193. HadesGodWyvern
9:08 PM GMT on June 18, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 AM PDT June 18 2014
===========================

A few showers, associated with a tropical wave, are located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated during the next couple of days, but some development of this system is still possible by later this weekend while it moves slowly northward.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
============================
Wednesday: Very Low
Thursday: Very Low
Friday: Low
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
192. HadesGodWyvern
9:05 PM GMT on June 18, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
DEVELOPING LOW, FORMER TC HAGIBIS (T1407)
3:00 AM JST June 19 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: Extratropical Cyclone Sea East Of Japan

At 18:00 PM UTC, Extratropical Low, Former Hagibis (990 hPa) located at 32.0N 145.0E. The extratropical low is reported as moving east at 20 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
191. HadesGodWyvern
11:53 AM GMT on June 18, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
DEVELOPING LOW, FORMER TC HAGIBIS (T1407)
15:00 PM JST June 18 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: Extratropical Cyclone Sea East Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Low, Former Hagibis (994 hPa) located at 31.0N 141.0E. The extratropical low is reported as moving east northeast at 30 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
190. HadesGodWyvern
2:48 AM GMT on June 18, 2014
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:00 PM PDT June 17 2014
===========================

An area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Although development is not anticipated during the next couple of days, gradual development of this system is possible later this week or this weekend while it moves west northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
============================
Tuesday: Very Low
Wednesday: Very Low
Thursday: Low

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
189. HadesGodWyvern
2:37 AM GMT on June 18, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
DEVELOPING LOW, FORMER TC HAGIBIS (T1407)
9:00 AM JST June 18 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: Extratropical Cyclone Sea South Of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Low, Former Hagibis (996 hPa) located at 31.0N 137.0E. The extratropical low is reported as moving east at 35 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
188. HadesGodWyvern
8:36 PM GMT on June 17, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
DEVELOPING LOW, FORMER TC HAGIBIS (T1407)
3:00 AM JST June 18 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: Extratropical Cyclone South Of Shikoku, Japan

At 18:00 PM UTC, Extratropical Low, Former Hagibis (996 hPa) located at 31.0N 133.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots.. The extratropical low is reported as moving east northeast at 35 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM from the center in south quadrant
200 NM from the center in north quadrant

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory on TC Hagibis from the japan Meteorological Agency..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
187. HadesGodWyvern
8:30 PM GMT on June 17, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
TROPICAL STORM HAGIBIS (T1407)
21:00 PM JST June 17 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Hagibis (996 hPa) located at 29.1N 130.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 35 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 32.7N 143.5E - 32.1N 141.5E Extratropical Low
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
186. HadesGodWyvern
10:58 AM GMT on June 17, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TROPICAL STORM HAGIBIS (T1407)
18:00 PM JST June 17 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In East China Sea

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Hagibis (996 hPa) located at 28.6N 127.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 22 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 32.7N 143.5E - 32.6N 140.7E Extratropical Low East of Hachijo-jima
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
185. HadesGodWyvern
10:57 AM GMT on June 17, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
TROPICAL STORM HAGIBIS (T1407)
15:00 PM JST June 17 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In East China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Hagibis (996 hPa) located at 28.5N 125.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 20 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 32.6N 140.7E - 32.6N 140.7E Extratropical Low East of Hachijo-jima
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573
184. whitewabit (Mod)
3:21 AM GMT on June 17, 2014
looks like your going to get a good line of storms go through up there by you !!

not sure if it will sag this far south to give me anything ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 366 Comments: 32141
183. HadesGodWyvern
3:09 AM GMT on June 17, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER TC HAGIBIS (T1407)

9:00 AM JST June 17 2014
==============================

East China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Hagibis (1000 hPa) located at 28.0N 123.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots.. The depression is reported as moving east northeast at 15 knots..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46573

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