March 1, 2014 - April 30, 2014

By: HadesGodWyvern , 12:21 AM GMT on March 01, 2014

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Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon 2014 season
=================================================
-----------------
Northwestern Pacific
-----------------
Japan Meteorological Agency: Tokyo
Hong Kong Observatory: China
Typhoon 2000: Philippines
PAGASA: Manila, Philippines

------------------
Northern Indian Ocean
--------------------
India Meteorological Department: New Delphi
Thailand Meteorological Department

------------------------
Northeastern Pacific Ocean
------------------------
National Hurricane Center: Miami, FL

-------------------------
Central Northeastern Pacific
----------------------------
Central Pacific Hurricane Center: Honolulu, Hawaii

---------------------------
Southern Indian Ocean
---------------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta: Indonesia
Mauritius Meteorological Service
Reunion Regional Specialized Meteorological Center

--------------------------
Southern Pacific Ocean
-----------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Fiji Meteorological Services: Nadi
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center: Wellington

=========================================

CURRENT ACTIVE STORMS IN THE WORLD

-------------------------------------------------
========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
March
T201403.Faxai - 975 hPa
TROPICAL DEPRESSION "Caloy" - 1004 hPa

April
T201404.Peipah/Domeng - 998 hPa
T201405.TAPAH - 980 hPa (continued in May)

----------------------------------------------

======================
Northern Indian Ocean
======================


Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
================================

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================


-------------------------------------------------
========================
Southwestern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Mauritius Meteorological Services
Seychelles Meteorological Services

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
===========================

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
March
14R.Hellen - 925 hPa

April
15R.Ivanoe - 980 hPa

-------------------------------------------------
========================
Southeastern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
================================

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

March
14U.Gillian - 937 hPa (Within TCWC Perth/Jakarta)

April
16U.Jack - 962 hPa

-------------------------------------------------
===================================
SE Indian Ocean/SW Pacific Ocean
==================================


Area of Responsibility
==============================
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
=========================

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

March
14U.Gillian - 997 hPa (within TCWC Darwin)

-------------------------------------------------
===========================
Southwestern Pacific Ocean
===========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Port Moresby

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
====================================


Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
March
13U.Hadi - 991 hPa
14U.Gillian - 993 hPa (Darwin took over responsibilities)

April
15U.Ita - 929 hPa

-------------------------------------------------
=============================
Southeastern Pacific Ocean
===============================

Area of Responsibility
Fiji Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington

Tropical Disturbance Summary
============================

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
March
15F.Kofi - 980 hPa
17F.NONAME - 1005 hPa
18F.Lusi - 955 hPa
19F.Mike - 990 hPa
20F.NONAME - 1000 hPa
21F.NONAME - 998 hPa

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482. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:12 AM GMT on May 01, 2014
HadesGodWyvern has created a new entry.
481. HadesGodWyvern
7:24 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (T1405)

3:00 AM JST May 1 2014
============================

Subject: Category One Typhoon South Southeast of Ogaasawara Shoto

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Tapah (990 hPa) located at 20.0N 147.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest slowly.

Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM from the center in east quadrant
90 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 23.2N 145.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
48 HRS 26.7N 149.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Minamitori-shima waters
72 HRS 28.9N 156.3E - Extratropical Low in Minamitori-shima waters
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
480. HadesGodWyvern
1:49 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (T1405)
21:00 PM JST April 30 2014
============================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon Near The Marianas Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Tapah (985 hPa) located at 19.6N 147.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM from the center in east quadrant
90 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 22.6N 145.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
48 HRS 25.6N 146.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
72 HRS 27.7N 151.7E - Extratropical Low in Minamitori-shima waters
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
479. HadesGodWyvern
1:46 PM GMT on April 30, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (T1405)
18:00 PM JST April 30 2014
============================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon Near The Marianas Islands

At 9:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Tapah (980 hPa) located at 19.4N 147.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Storm Force Winds
===============
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM from the center in east quadrant
90 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 22.5N 145.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
45 HRS 25.4N 146.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
69 HRS 28.0N 150.3E - Extratropical Low in Minamitori-shima waters
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
478. HadesGodWyvern
7:08 AM GMT on April 30, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (T1405)

15:00 PM JST April 30 2014
============================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon Near The Marianas Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Tapah (980 hPa) located at 19.3N 147.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM from the center in east quadrant
90 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 22.4N 145.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
48 HRS 25.4N 146.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
72 HRS 28.0N 150.3E - Extratropical Low in Minamitori-shima waters
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
477. HadesGodWyvern
4:06 AM GMT on April 30, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (T1405)
12:00 PM JST April 30 2014
============================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon Near The Marianas Islands

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Tapah (980 hPa) located at 19.1N 147.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center in east quadrant
90 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 22.0N 145.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
45 HRS 25.4N 145.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
69 HRS 28.0N 150.3E - Extratropical Low in Minamitori-shima waters
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
476. HadesGodWyvern
2:22 AM GMT on April 30, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (T1405)
9:00 AM JST April 30 2014
============================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon Near The Marianas Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Tapah (980 hPa) located at 18.8N 147.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center in east quadrant
90 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 21.7N 145.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
48 HRS 25.4N 145.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
72 HRS 28.0N 150.3E - Extratropical Low in Minamitori-shima waters
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
475. HadesGodWyvern
8:54 PM GMT on April 29, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (T1405)
3:00 AM JST April 30 2014
============================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon Near The Marianas Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Tapah (980 hPa) located at 18.0N 147.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center in east quadrant
90 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 20.4N 145.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
48 HRS 23.1N 143.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
72 HRS 26.4N 146.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
474. HadesGodWyvern
8:52 PM GMT on April 29, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (T1405)
21:00 PM JST April 29 2014
============================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon Near The Marianas Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Tapah (980 hPa) located at 17.0N 147.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center in east quadrant
90 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 19.7N 145.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
48 HRS 22.4N 143.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
72 HRS 25.5N 145.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
473. HadesGodWyvern
11:43 AM GMT on April 29, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (T1405)
18:00 PM JST April 29 2014
============================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon Near The Marianas Islands

At 9:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Tapah (980 hPa) located at 16.8N 147.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center in east quadrant
90 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 19.4N 145.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
45 HRS 21.7N 143.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
69 HRS 25.5N 145.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
472. HadesGodWyvern
6:49 AM GMT on April 29, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (T1405)
15:00 PM JST April 29 2014
============================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon Near The Marianas Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Tapah (980 hPa) located at 16.5N 147.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center in east quadrant
90 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 18.9N 145.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
48 HRS 21.7N 143.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
72 HRS 25.5N 145.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
471. HadesGodWyvern
5:02 AM GMT on April 29, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (T1405)
12:00 PM JST April 29 2014
============================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon Near The Marianas Islands

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Tapah (985 hPa) located at 16.1N 147.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center in east quadrant
90 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 18.6N 145.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
45 HRS 20.3N 143.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
69 HRS 23.7N 143.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
470. HadesGodWyvern
1:12 AM GMT on April 29, 2014
NWS Tiyan Guam
==================

TROPICAL STORM WARNING for Saipan and Tinian is now cancelled

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING and a TYPHOON WATCH remains in effect for Alamagan and Pagan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
469. HadesGodWyvern
1:07 AM GMT on April 29, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (T1405)
9:00 AM JST April 29 2014
============================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon Near The Marianas Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Tapah (990 hPa) located at 15.6N 147.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center in east quadrant
90 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 18.2N 146.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
48 HRS 20.3N 143.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
72 HRS 23.7N 143.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
468. HadesGodWyvern
10:51 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (T1405)
6:00 AM JST April 29 2014
============================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Near The Marianas Islands

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Tapah (998 hPa) located at 15.2N 147.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center in east quadrant
90 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 18.0N 146.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
45 HRS 20.0N 144.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
69 HRS 23.2N 142.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
467. HadesGodWyvern
7:40 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (T1405)
3:00 AM JST April 29 2014
============================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Near The Marianas Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Tapah (998 hPa) located at 14.8N 147.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center in east quadrant
90 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 17.5N 146.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
48 HRS 20.0N 144.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
72 HRS 23.2N 142.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
466. HadesGodWyvern
1:56 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
NWS Tiyan Guam
====================

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect for Saipan and Tinian

A TYPHOON WATCH remains in effect for Alamagan and Pagan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
465. HadesGodWyvern
1:54 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (T1405)
21:00 PM JST April 28 2014
============================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Near The Marianas Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Tapah (1000 hPa) located at 14.0N 147.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 16.8N 146.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
48 HRS 19.0N 144.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
72 HRS 21.4N 142.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
464. HadesGodWyvern
12:20 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (T1405)
18:00 PM JST April 28 2014
============================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Near The Marianas Islands

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Tapah (1000 hPa) located at 13.3N 147.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 15.4N 146.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
45 HRS 17.4N 144.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
69 HRS 19.8N 142.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
463. HadesGodWyvern
7:01 AM GMT on April 28, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (T1405)
15:00 PM JST April 28 2014
============================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Near The Marianas Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Tapah (1000 hPa) located at 13.2N 147.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 15.1N 146.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
48 HRS 17.4N 144.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
72 HRS 19.8N 142.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
462. HadesGodWyvern
5:35 AM GMT on April 28, 2014
NWS Tiyan Guam
=================

A TYPHOON WATCH is now in effect for Alamagan and Pagan

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH remains in effect for Saipan and Tinian
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
461. HadesGodWyvern
4:07 AM GMT on April 28, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (T1405)
12:00 PM JST April 28 2014
============================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Near The Marianas Islands

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Tapah (1002 hPa) located at 12.4N 147.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 14.1N 146.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
45 HRS 15.4N 144.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
69 HRS 17.8N 142.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
460. HadesGodWyvern
1:15 AM GMT on April 28, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM TAPAH (T1405)
9:00 AM JST April 28 2014
============================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Near The Marianas Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Tapah (1002 hPa) located at 11.6N 146.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 13.4N 146.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
48 HRS 15.4N 144.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
72 HRS 17.8N 142.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
459. HadesGodWyvern
10:59 PM GMT on April 27, 2014
NWS Tiyan, Guam
=========================

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is now in effect for Saipan.. Tinian.. Alamagan. and Pagan.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
458. HadesGodWyvern
10:58 PM GMT on April 27, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05
6:00 AM JST April 28 2014
============================

Subject: Tropical Depression Near Marianas Islands

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 11.4N 147.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 13.0N 146.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
457. HadesGodWyvern
7:22 PM GMT on April 27, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05
3:00 AM JST April 28 2014
============================

Subject: Tropical Depression Near Marianas Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 10.9N 146.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 11.6N 145.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
456. HadesGodWyvern
2:42 PM GMT on April 27, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05
21:00 PM JST April 27 2014
============================

Subject: Tropical Depression Near Marianas Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 10.6N 146.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 11.3N 145.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
455. HadesGodWyvern
2:40 PM GMT on April 27, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05
18:00 PM JST April 27 2014
============================

Subject: Tropical Depression Near Marianas Islands

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 10.6N 146.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 11.3N 145.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
454. HadesGodWyvern
8:32 AM GMT on April 27, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05
15:00 PM JST April 27 2014
============================

Subject: Tropical Depression Near Marianas Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 10.3N 146.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS 11.1N 145.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
453. HadesGodWyvern
4:57 AM GMT on April 27, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:15 PM CST April 27 2014
======================================

A weak Tropical Low, 1010 hPa, is located near Milingimbi. The low is expected to move slowly west and weaken.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
452. HadesGodWyvern
4:24 AM GMT on April 27, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST April 27 2014
============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 9.0N 146.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
451. HadesGodWyvern
7:46 AM GMT on April 22, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC JACK (16U)
3:16 PM WST April 22 2014
================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low, Former TC Jack (1002 hPa) located at 17.9S 95.2E or 660 km south southwest of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southeast at 11 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
210 NM from the center in southwest quadrant


Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 19.5S 96.2E - 35 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 20.0S 96.3E - 35 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 19.6S 97.0E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 18.9S 96.9E- 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================

Tropical Cyclone Jack has weakened below cyclone intensity due to strong northwest wind shear [CIMSS Shear 06 UTC northwest 30-35 knots]. Visible imagery shows a completely exposed low level circulation center with deep convection far removed from the low level circulation center. WINDSAT at 2327 UTC showed generally 20/25 knot winds surrounding the center. This was supported by the ASCAT passes [02-03 UTC] which showed again generally 20-25 knot winds to the east of the low level circulation center.

Dvorak: Using a shear pattern, the low level circulation center was more than 1.25 degrees from any deep convection. DT was <1.5. CI values are now 2.5.

Gales may still persist in areas to the southwest of the center due to a tight pressure gradient with a ridge of high pressure to the south of the system.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisories issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
450. HadesGodWyvern
5:23 AM GMT on April 22, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:15 PM CST April 22 2014
====================================

A weak Tropical Low, 1008 hPa, is located in the northern Arafura Sea to the north of the region. The low is expected to remain weak while moving slowly southwestwards towards the Timor Sea, entering the Northern Region later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
============================
Wednesday Very Low
Thursday Low
Friday Low
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
449. HadesGodWyvern
1:49 AM GMT on April 22, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE JACK, CATEGORY ONE (16U)
9:27 AM WST April 22 2014
================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Jack, Category One (995 hPa) located at 16.3S 94.2E or 540 km south southwest of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
40 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/3.0/W1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 16.8S 94.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 17.5S 95.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 17.3S 95.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 16.6S 96.0E- 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================

Tropical Cyclone Jack has been located overnight by a series of microwave images showing the low level circulation center displaced from the central dense overcast as the system begins to be weakening rapidly by strong shear.

Dvorak analysis is based on a shear pattern which sees the low level circulation center now more than half a degree away from the cold cloud. This gives DT around 2.0 averaged over the past 3 hours. FT has been set at 2.0 in line with DT [MET gives 2.5]. CI kept one T number higher at 3.0 giving current intensity of 40 knots [10 min]. SATCON at 19 UTC had intensity at 48 knots [1 min].

Strong NW shear across the system will continue the rapid weakening trend and Jack is expected to fall below tropical cyclone intensity during Tuesday. The forecast track is for southeastwards motion for the next 12 hours though once the low level circulation center is completely removed from the deep convection it's motion is expected to be influenced by the ridge to the south. Gales may continue in southern quadrants after the system has weakened below cyclone intensity with the synoptically driven increased pressure gradient between the system and the ridge to the south.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
448. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9:31 PM GMT on April 21, 2014
this is a nice tranquil colour

cool
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
447. HadesGodWyvern
7:34 PM GMT on April 21, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE JACK, CATEGORY TWO (16U)
2:54 AM WST April 22 2014
================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Jack, Category Two (986 hPa) located at 16.8S 93.2E or 650 km southwest of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/4.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 18.2S 93.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 19.3S 94.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 19.5S 94.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 19.5S 95.7E- 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================

Tropical Cyclone Jack has been located overnight by a series of microwave images showing the low level circulation center displaced from the central dense overcast as the system begins to be ripped apart by strong shear.

Dvorak analysis has shifted to a shear pattern which sees the low level circulation center now more than half a degree away from the cold cloud. This gives DT around 2.5 to 3 averaged over the past 3 hours. FT has been set at 3.0 in line with MET. CI kept one T number higher at 4.0 giving current intensity of 45 knots [10 min]. SATCON at 15 UTC had intensity at 47 knots [1 min].

Strong northwest shear across the system will continue the rapid weakening trend and Jack is expected to fall below tropical cyclone intensity late Tuesday. The forecast track is for continued southeastwards motion for the next 12 hours though once the low level circulation center is completely removed from the deep convection it's motion is expected to be influenced by the ridge to the south.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
446. HadesGodWyvern
1:59 PM GMT on April 21, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JACK, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
9:23 PM WST April 21 2014
================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Jack, Category Three (977 hPa) located at 16.4S 92.4E or 670 km southwest of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 7 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 17.4S 92.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 18.8S 93.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 19.5S 93.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 19.5S 95.0E- 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jack continues to exhibit a large area of cold, dense overcast and good structure, even as it passes through an environment with relatively strong shear. Its southeasterly trajectory has continued, at a slightly increased pace.

Low level circulation center has been difficult to ascertain with overcast obscuring low level circulation center. Fix based on satellite and microwave imagery. Enhanced infrared radar imagery gives a DT of 4.5 based on an embedded center pattern. FT/CI is based on MET=4.5. ADT remains at 4.8. SATCON intensity at 09 UTC was 54 knots and CIMSS AMSU was lower at 41 knots [1 minute means]. Intensity is estimated to be 65 knots [10-minute mean] based on Dvorak.

Microwave and visible imagery show a displacement of the low level circulation center to the north of the cold cloud and outflow has diminished in northern quadrants. Forecast is for further weakening as an approaching upper trough increases northwesterly shear across the system. Recent analysis by CIMMS indicates northwesterly shear is 20-30 knots. This will be the main factor influencing the system's demise over the course of the next 24-36 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
445. HadesGodWyvern
7:30 AM GMT on April 21, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JACK, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
3:22 PM WST April 21 2014
================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Jack, Category Three (965 hPa) located at 15.9S 91.9E or 670 km southwest of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 16.7S 92.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 17.8S 92.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 19.0S 93.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 18.6S 93.2E- 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jack is maintaining good structure and a large area of deep convection, even as it moves into an environment with stronger shear. Its southeasterly trajectory has continued, at a slightly increased pace.

Low level circulation center has been difficult to ascertain with overcast obscuring low level circulation center fix based on WINDSAT [0245UTC] and TRIMM microwave [04UTC] imagery. EIR imagery gives a DT of 5.0 based on an embedded centre pattern. FT/CI is based on MET=5.0. ADT remains at 4.8. SATCON intensity at 02 UTC was 50 knots and CIMSS AMSU was lower at 40 knots [1 minute means]. Intensity is estimated to be 80 knots [10-minute mean] based on Dvorak.

Microwave imagery shows a slight displacement of the low level circulation center to the north of the cold cloud and outflow has diminished in northern quadrants. Forecast is for further weakening as an approaching upper trough increases northwesterly shear across the system. While shear had been steady at slightly less than 20 knots for the last 12-24 hours, recent analysis by CIMMS has indicated shear has recently increased and is now greater than 25 knots. This will be the main factor influencing the system's demise over the course of the next 24-36 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
444. HadesGodWyvern
6:47 AM GMT on April 21, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:15 PM CST April 21 2014
=================================

A weak Tropical Low, 1008 hPa, is located in the northern Arafura Sea to the north of the region. The low is expected move slowly west before entering the Northern Region as it moves southwestwards into the Timor Sea later this week.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
443. HadesGodWyvern
4:21 AM GMT on April 21, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST April 21 2014
========================

At 0:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 10.0N 135.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The tropical depression is reported as moving west slowly.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
442. HadesGodWyvern
1:11 AM GMT on April 21, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JACK, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
8:56 AM WST April 21 2014
================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Jack, Category Three (976 hPa) located at 15.6S 91.5E or 690 km west southwest of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 4 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/W0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 16.2S 92.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 17.2S 92.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 19.4S 93.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 19.1S 94.0E- 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jack is showing signs of weakening as it moves slowly southwards across the central Indian Ocean.

Position has been located using satellite imagery, with a good fix on ssmi microwave imagery at 2044 UTC. enhanced infrared imagery gives a DT of 5.0 based on an embedded centre pattern. FT/CI is based on MET=4.5. ADT is slightly higher at 4.8. SATCON intensity at 19 UTC was 57 knots and CIMSS AMSU was lower at 50 knots [1 minute means]. Intensity is estimated to be 65 knots [10 minute mean] based on Dvorak.

Microwave imagery shows a slight displacement of the low level circulation center to the north of the cold cloud and outflow has diminished in northern quadrants. Forecast is for further weakening as an approaching upper trough increases northwesterly shear across the system. This will be the main factor influencing the system's demise over the course of the next 24-36 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
441. HadesGodWyvern
8:03 PM GMT on April 20, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JACK, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
2:54 AM WST April 21 2014
================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Jack, Category Three (972 hPa) located at 15.2S 91.3E or 690 km west southwest of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 3 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 15.8S 91.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS16.5S 92.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 18.3S 92.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 18.8S 93.7E- 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jack is showing signs of weakening as it moves slowly southwards across the central Indian Ocean.

EIR imagery suggests a weakening trend over the past 6 hours and while an embedded center pattern will yield high DT values, FT has been based on MET giving FT=4.0. CI has been held at 4.5 with intensity reduced to 70 knots [10 minute mean]. SATCON at 15 UTC was 55 knots [1 minute mean].

Microwave imagery at 13Z showed the low level circulation center displaced to the north of the cold cloud and outflow has diminished in northern quadrants. Forecast is for further weakening as shear across the system continues to increase. This will be the main player in the systems demise over the course of the next 24-36 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
440. HadesGodWyvern
3:02 PM GMT on April 20, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
21:00 PM JST April 20 2014
========================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 10.0N 136.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The tropical depression is reported as moving west slowly.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
439. HadesGodWyvern
2:21 PM GMT on April 20, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JACK, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
9:08 PM WST April 20 2014
================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Jack, Category Three (962 hPa) located at 15.2S 91.1E or 700 km west southwest of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 15.7S 91.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 16.3S 91.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 18.2S 92.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 19.0S 93.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jack was located using infrared, water vapor and microwave satellite imagery. The microwave imagery showed that the vortex was tilted with north to northwest wind shear evident. Jack is over warm sea surface temperatures of 28-30C. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential does decrease south of 15.0S but sea surface temperatures remain above 26C north of about 20.0S.

Dvorak: Enhanced infrared radar imagery indicates a generally steady trend over the last few hours, however the most recent imagery has indicated an increase in deep convection, reversing the gradual weakening trend which had been a feature over much of Sunday. Using the embedded centre pattern yielded a DT of 5.0 for the most recent analysis. While earlier analyses saw the DT consistently at 4.5, CI was constrained at 5.0 for the start of the weakening trend. MET is 4.0 as a result of an S trend, with PAT at 4.5. Analysis is supported by CIMSS ADT and NESDIS ADT which have been steady at 4.8 for the last several hours. Hence, FT=CI=5.0 [based on DT] and intensity maintained at 80 knots [10 minute mean]. SATCON at 11 UTC was 68 knots [1 minute mean].

Jack appears to have reached peak intensity and is likely to begin a gradual weakening overnight and Monday morning.

CIMSS shear at 12 UTC 20 April has remained steady, NNW at about 18 knots. The approach of an upper-level trough, while assisting poleward outflow, will enhance the shear and contribute to steering the system to the southeast. Shear greater than 20 knots is expected in the next 12-24 hours and is expected to cause the system to weaken overnight Sunday and into Monday.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
438. HadesGodWyvern
9:16 AM GMT on April 20, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
15:00 PM JST April 20 2014
========================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 10.0N 136.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The tropical depression is reported as moving west slowly.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
437. HadesGodWyvern
9:14 AM GMT on April 20, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JACK, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
3:35 PM WST April 20 2014
================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Jack, Category Three (963 hPa) located at 14.9S 90.9E or 710 km west southwest of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 3 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 15.5S 91.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 16.1S 91.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 17.8S 92.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 19.0S 92.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jack was located using infrared and microwave satellite imagery, particularly the TRMM image at 0457 UTC. Those microwave images also showed that the vortex was tilted with north to northwest wind shear starting to increase. Jack is over warm sea surface temperatures of 28-30C. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential does decrease south of 15.0S but sea surface temperatures remain above 26C north of about 20.0S.

Dvorak: Enhanced infrared imagery indicates a steady plateauing/weakening trend over the last few hours, consistent with the increasing shear analysis. Using the embedded center pattern yielded a DT of 4.5 for the last 2 analyses, but the short-term average means DT is held at 5.0 for this issue. This trend is supported by CIMSS ADT and NESDIS ADT which have been steady at 4.8 for the last several hours. MET was 4.5 with a D trend and PAT was 4.0. FT/CI are 5.0 [based on DT] and intensity set to 80 knots [10 minute mean]. SATCON at 04 UTC was 77 knots [1 minute mean].

Jack appears to have reached peak intensity and is likely to begin a gradual weakening during today, before shear increases further later Sunday and weakening is expected to accelerate.

CIMSS shear at 06 UTC 20 April was NNW at about 18 knots. The approach of an upper-level trough, while assisting poleward outflow, will enhance the shear and contribute to steering the system to the southeast. Shear greater than 20 knots is expected Sunday evening/night and this is expected to cause the system to weaken from late Sunday. Further weakening is expected on Monday with the system forecast to be below tropical cyclone intensity by 0000 UTC 22 April.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
436. HadesGodWyvern
2:33 AM GMT on April 20, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST April 20 2014
========================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 10.0N 137.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The tropical depression is reported as moving west slowly.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
435. HadesGodWyvern
1:46 AM GMT on April 20, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JACK, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
9:08 AM WST April 20 2014
================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Jack, Category Three (963 hPa) located at 14.6S 90.9E or 700 km west southwest of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 3 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 15.1S 91.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 15.5S 91.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 16.9S 92.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 18.2S 92.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jack was located using infrared and microwave satellite imagery, particularly the TRMM 1406 UTC and AMSR2 1820 UTC. Those microwave images also showed that the vortex was tilted with north to northwest wind shear starting to increase. Jack is over warm sea surface temperatures 28-30C. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential does decrease south of 15.0S but sea surface temperatures remain above 26C north of about 20.0S.

Dvorak: An eye on EIR imagery emerged over the past 6 hours. DTs have varied from 4.5 to 5.5, with an average of 5.0. The eye wasn't evident on the 2232 and 2332 UTC enhanced infrared imagery. The embedded centre pattern on those images gave a DT of 5.0. CIMSS ADT and NESDIS ADT were 4.6 and 4.7 respectively at 2330 UTC. MET was 4.5 with a D+ trend and PAT was 4.5. FT/CI are 5.0 [based on DT] and intensity set to 80 knots [10 minute mean]. SATCON at 19 UTC was 74 knots [1 minute mean].

Jack is likely to be near peak intensity. CIMSS shear at 00 UTC 20 April was north northwest at about 15 knots. The approach of an upper level trough will assist with poleward outflow and steer the system towards the southeast. This trough has resulted in increasing N/NW shear which will cause the system to weaken from late Sunday. Further weakening is expected on Monday with the system forecast to be below tropical cyclone intensity by 0600 UTC 22 April.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
434. HadesGodWyvern
8:41 PM GMT on April 19, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST April 20 2014
========================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 11.0N 139.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
433. HadesGodWyvern
8:40 PM GMT on April 19, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JACK, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
3:15 AM WST April 20 2014
================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Jack, Category Three (979 hPa) located at 14.4S 90.7E or 710 km west southwest of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D2.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 14.9S 90.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 15.2S 91.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 16.6S 92.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS 18.7S 92.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
==================

Tropical Cyclone Jack has continued to rapidly develop and is a category 3 cyclone.

The system was located using infra-red satellite imagery. Recent images depict a southerly track for much of the last several hours. 16U is over warm sea surface temperatures 28-30C. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential does decrease south of 15.0S but sea surface temperatures remain above 26 degrees celsius north of about 20.0S.

Dvorak: Over the last few hours the system has been exhibiting a DT of 4.5 based on a curved band pattern with an eye developing in the last image. Intensity is set at 65 knots which is in reasonable agreement with ADT and SATCON [70 knots 1 minute mean]. EIR imagery shows recent eye development, with patches of CMG and CDG within a broad W region.

CIMSS shear analysis at 1200 UTC continues to analyse easterly shear of less than 10 knots. Low to moderate shear and thus continued development is expected until later Sunday when the shear increase and the system begins to weaken.

Due to interaction with the subtropical ridge to the south of the system, gales may persist in southern quadrants until Thursday.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081
432. HadesGodWyvern
2:25 PM GMT on April 19, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
21:00 PM JST April 19 2014
========================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 11.0N 141.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47081

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