January 1 2014 - February 28 2014

By: HadesGodWyvern , 12:18 AM GMT on January 01, 2014

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Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon 2014 season
=================================================
========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
January
T201401.Lingling/Agaton - 1002 hPa
T201402.Kajiki/Basyang - 1000 hPa

February
T201403.FAXAI - 998 hPa

----------------------------------------------

======================
Northern Indian Ocean
======================


Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January
BOB01.NONAME - 1004 hPa

-------------------------------------------------

========================
Southwestern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Mauritius Meteorological Services
Seychelles Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January
04R.Bejisa - 953 hPa
05R.NONAME - 992 hPa
06R.Colin - 930 hPa
07R.Deliwe - 992 hPa
08R.NONAME - 1004 hPa
09R.NONAME - 1003 hPa

February
10R.Edilson - 980 hPa
11R.Fobane - 975 hPa
12R.Guito - 977 hPa
13R.NONAME - 996 hPa

-------------------------------------------------
========================
Southeastern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
February
09U.NONAME - 988 hPa

-------------------------------------------------
===================================
SE Indian Ocean/SW Pacific Ocean
==================================


Area of Responsibility
==============================
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January
06U.NONAME - 994 hPa

February
08U.Fletcher - 992 hPa
09U.NONAME - 993 hpa

-------------------------------------------------
===========================
Southwestern Pacific Ocean
===========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Port Moresby

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January
07U.Dylan - 975 hPa

February
10U.Edna - 992 hPa (moved east of 160E)

-------------------------------------------------
=============================
Southeastern Pacific Ocean
===============================

Area of Responsibility
Fiji Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
January
07F.Ian - 930 hPa
08F.June - 990 hPa
09F.NONAME - 1004 hPa
10F.NONAME - 1004 hPa
11F.NONAME - 1000 hPa

February
12F.Edna - 985 hPa
13F.NONAME - 1003 hPa
14F.NONAME - 1002 hPa
15F.NONAME - 995 hPa
16F.NONAME - 1002 hPa

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528. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:21 AM GMT on March 01, 2014
HadesGodWyvern has created a new entry.
527. HadesGodWyvern
10:22 PM GMT on February 28, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM FAXAI (T1403)
6:00 AM JST March 1 2014
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Faxai (998 hPa) located at 8.7N 149.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east slowly.

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in northern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.4N 150.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Chuuk Island
45 HRS: 11.1N 150.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Chuuk Island
69 HRS: 13.9N 150.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Chuuk Island
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
526. HadesGodWyvern
9:49 PM GMT on February 28, 2014
Tropical Depression 15F

Tonga region
---------------------

Tropical Cyclone Warning

A Gale Warning remains in force for the Vava'u, Ha'apai and Tongatapu group

A Strong Wind Warning remains in force for the rest of Tonga
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
525. HadesGodWyvern
9:19 PM GMT on February 28, 2014
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F
6:00 AM FST March 1 2014
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 15F (995 hPa) located at 17.8S 178.8W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. Position fair based on hourly multispectral enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as moving south southeast at 8 knots.

Convection remains persistent in past 24 hours. Overall organization has improved in past 24 hours. Primary bands trying to wrap around low level circulation center. System lies under an upper ridge in a low sheared environment. Outflow good to the south and north. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. System is being steered to the southeast by a mid level subtropical ridge to the east.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.5 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT=2.5, MET=2.5, and PT=2.5.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS.

Global models agree on a south southeast movement with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 19.2S 177.8W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 20.5S 177.0W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 22.0S 175.9W - 55 knots (CAT 2)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
524. HadesGodWyvern
9:13 PM GMT on February 28, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM FAXAI (T1403)
3:00 AM JST March 1 2014
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Faxai (998 hPa) located at 8.7N 149.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east slowly.

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in northern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.2N 150.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Chuuk Island
48 HRS: 11.1N 150.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Chuuk Island
72 HRS: 13.9N 150.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Chuuk Island
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
523. HadesGodWyvern
9:11 PM GMT on February 28, 2014
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F
0:00 AM FST March 1 2014
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 15F (996 hPa) located at 17.3S 179.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 11 knots.

Convection remains persistent in past 24 hours. Overall organization has improved in past 24 hours. Primary bands trying to wrap around low level circulation center. System lies just south of an upper ridge in a low sheared environment. Outflow good to the south. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. System is being steered to the southeast by a mid level subtropical ridge to the east.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.4 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT=2.5, MET=2.5, PT=2.5.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/ 24HRS

Global models agree on a southeast movement with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 18.9S 177.6W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 20.4S 176.8W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 22.1S 176.0W - 50 knots (CAT 2)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
522. HadesGodWyvern
1:22 PM GMT on February 28, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM FAXAI (T1403)
21:00 PM JST February 28 2014
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Faxai (1000 hPa) located at 8.7N 148.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in northern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 8.7N 149.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
48 HRS: 10.3N 150.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Chuuk Island
72 HRS: 13.0N 150.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Chuuk Island
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
521. HadesGodWyvern
1:17 PM GMT on February 28, 2014
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE 13-20132014
16:00 PM RET February 28 2014
===========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Subtropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 34.4S 37.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
Reaching locally gale force winds of 35 knots within 90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 240 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: NIL

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS 36.3S 37.2E - Depression Extratropicale

24 HRS 39.6S 40.7E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
========================
The system is moving slowly southward now.

Sea surface temperatures are cool (24C) the upper level winds aloft are strengthening. According to this degrading environmental conditions, there is no more potential for convection

Within the next 24 hours, the system will accelerate south southeastwards and merge within the mid-lat westerlies Saturday night.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory issued by the Seychelles Meteorological Services on this system..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
520. HadesGodWyvern
1:10 PM GMT on February 28, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
18:00 PM JST February 28 2014
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 8.7N 147.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 8.6N 149.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
519. HadesGodWyvern
8:22 AM GMT on February 28, 2014
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F
18:00 PM FST February 28 2014
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 15F (995 hPa) located at 16.0S 179.6W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. Position good based on radar imagery and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 8 knots.

Deep convection remains persistent in past 12 hours. Organization has slightly improved in past 24 hours. System lies just south of an upper ridge in a high sheared environment. Outflow good to to the north but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.40 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT=2.5, MET and PT agree.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Global models agree on a southeastward movement with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 17.2S 178.6W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS 18.8S 177.8W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS 21.1S 176.8W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
518. HadesGodWyvern
7:36 AM GMT on February 28, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
15:00 PM JST February 28 2014
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 8.5N 147.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 8.5N 149.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
517. HadesGodWyvern
7:04 AM GMT on February 28, 2014
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE 13-20132014
10:00 AM RET February 28 2014
===========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Subtropical Depression (996 hPa) located at 34.0S 37.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving south at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 165 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 240 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: NIL

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS 35.6S 37.4E - 30 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
24 HRS 38.4S 39.1E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
========================
The system is moving slowly southward now.

Last multispectral meteosat7 pictures show that the low level circulation is partially exposed northwest of the convection that has developed last night close to the center, and also suggest the strengthening of the upper level winds aloft.

The system keeps hybrid characteristics with both latent heat release and baroclinic process involved for sustaining its strength.

Within the next 2 days, the system should continue to round the low to mid-level subtropical highs located to its south-east that tend to move eastwards.

The system should accelerate south southeastwards and merge within the mid-lat westerlies Saturday night.

This system should still be within a weak vertical sheared environment for the next 6 hours. After that, northwesterly shear is expected to strengthen.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
516. HadesGodWyvern
5:23 AM GMT on February 28, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:30 PM EST February 28 2014
========================================

A weak tropical low south of the Solomon Islands is expected to move westwards over the next few days. Conditions in the northern Coral Sea are expected to become favorable for further development of the tropical low early next week. If the tropical low develops as expected, there are likely to be associated impacts on the tropical east Queensland coast from mid next week.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================
Saturday Very Low
Sunday Low
Monday Moderate
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
515. HadesGodWyvern
4:50 AM GMT on February 28, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
12:00 PM JST February 28 2014
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 8.5N 147.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 8.5N 148.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
514. HadesGodWyvern
2:12 AM GMT on February 28, 2014
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F
12:00 PM FST February 28 2014
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 15F (995 hPa) located at 15.5S 179.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS visible imagery and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as moving east northeast at 3 knots.

Deep convection remains persistent in past 12 hours. Organization has slightly improved in past 24 hours. System lies north of an upper ridge in a moderate sheared environment. Outflow fair to the south but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.30 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT of 2.0, MET=2.5 and PT=2.0. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Global models agree on an eastern movement before curving it southeastwards with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 16.7S 179.0W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS 18.7S 178.2W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS 20.7S 177.3W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
513. HadesGodWyvern
1:26 AM GMT on February 28, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
9:00 AM JST February 28 2014
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 8.5N 147.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 8.5N 148.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
512. HadesGodWyvern
1:24 AM GMT on February 28, 2014
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE 13-20132014
4:00 AM RET February 28 2014
===========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Subtropical Depression (996 hPa) located at 33.3S 37.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
45 NM radius from the center in the northwestern quadrant and up to 65 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 165 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 240 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: NIL

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS 34.4S 37.9E - 30 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
24 HRS 37.0S 38.5E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
========================
Making a slow right-hand loop, the system is quasi-stationary since 18z.

Since 19z, system is showing a well defined "eye" on msg satellite imagery. This no-rainy central area is surrounded by rather warm convective bands as usual for this kind of hybrid low over marginal sea surface temperatures in the 24-25C range.

The system keeps hybrid characteristics with both latent heat release and baroclinic process involved for sustaining its strength.

Within the next 2 days, the system should continue to round the low to mid-level subtropical highs located to its southeast that tend to move eastwards. The system should accelerate south southeastwards and merge within the mid-lat westerlies Saturday night.

This system should still be within a weak vertical sheared environment for the next 12 hours. After that, northwesterly shear is expected to strengthen.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
511. HadesGodWyvern
1:18 AM GMT on February 28, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
6:00 AM JST February 28 2014
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 8.5N 147.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 8.4N 148.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
510. HadesGodWyvern
8:22 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F
6:00 AM FST February 28 2014
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 15F (997 hPa) located at 15.1S 180.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as moving northeast at 7 knots.

Deep convection remains persistent in past 24 hours. Organization has slightly improved in past 24 hours. System lies north of an upper ridge in a moderate sheared environment. Outflow fair to the south but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Cyclonic circulation extend up to 500 HPA.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.35 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT=2.0, MET=2.5 and PT=2.0. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Global models agree on an eastward movement before curving it southeastward with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 15.8S 179.2W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS 17.1S 178.5W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS 19.6S 177.6W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
509. HadesGodWyvern
8:16 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
3:00 AM JST February 28 2014
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 8.5N 147.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 8.2N 148.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
508. HadesGodWyvern
8:12 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE 13-20132014
22:00 PM RET February 27 2014
===========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Subtropical Depression (996 hPa) located at 33.2S 37.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southwest at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
45 NM radius from the center in the northwestern quadrant and up to 65 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 165 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 240 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: NIL

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS 34.3S 37.4E - 35 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
24 HRS 36.1S 38.0E - 30 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
48 HRS 43.5S 45.4E - Depression se Comblant

Additional Information
========================
The non tropical low pressure area that formed Monday night close to the south-eastern coasts of southern Africa has gained some tropical characteristics during the last 24 hours as deep convection has flared up close to the center and wrapped half the way around the center. This situation has been possible as the environmental shear is easing as the system is currently close to the upper level trough axis.

The system has hybrid characteristics with both latent heat release and baroclinic process involved for sustaining its strength. As usual for this kind of low, the cloud tops are rather warm and the system is over marginal sea surface temperatures in the 24-25C range. Within the next few days, the system should continue to round the low to mid-level subtropical highs located to its southeast that tend to move eastwards. Friday night, the system should accelerate southwards and merge within the mid-lat westerlies Saturday night.

This system should still be within a weak vertical wind shear environment for the next 24 hours. After that (Friday night), north to northwesterly shear is expected to strengthen. The system should therefore begin its extratropical transition.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
507. HadesGodWyvern
2:47 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE 13-20132014
16:00 PM RET February 27 2014
===========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Subtropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 32.7S 37.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southwest at 7 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 165 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 240 NM in the southeastern quadrant. Gale force winds locally present in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: NIL

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS 33.2S 37.7E - 40 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
24 HRS 34.4S 37.8E - 40 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
48 HRS 40.6S 42.4E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
========================
The non tropical low pressure area that formed Monday night close to the south-eastern coasts of southern Africa has gained some tropical characteristics during the last 24 hours as deep convection has flared up close to the center and wrapped half the way around the center. This situation has been possible as the environmental shear is easing as the system is currently close to the upper level trough axis.

The system has hybrid characteristics with both latent heat release and baroclinic process involved for sustaining its strength. As usual for this kind of low, the cloud tops are rather warm and the system is over marginal sea surface temperatures in the 24-25C range. The current intensity is based on scatt data of this morning that is showing 30 knots winds over the whole circulation and even 30-35 knots in the southwestern quadrant.

Within the next few days, the system should continue to round the low to mid-level subtropical highs located to its southeast that tend to move eastwards. Friday night, the system should accelerate southwards and merge within a the mid-lat westerlies Saturday night.

This system should still be within a weak vertical wind shear environment for the next 24 hours. After that (Friday night), north to north-westerly shear is expected to strengthen. The system should therefore undergo its extratropical transition.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
506. HadesGodWyvern
2:36 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
21:00 PM JST February 27 2014
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.0N 148.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 8.8N 148.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
505. HadesGodWyvern
2:34 PM GMT on February 27, 2014
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F
0:00 AM FST February 28 2014
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 15F (998 hPa) located at 15.7S 179.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as moving north northeast at 7 knots.

Convection remains persistent along the southern flank in past 24 hours. Organization has not improved much in past 24 hours. System lies under an upper ridge, east of an upper trough in a moderate sheared environment. Outflow good to the south but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.2 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT=2.0, MET=2.0 and PT=2.0.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Global models agree on a northeast movement and then a southeast movement with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 15.8S 179.7W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS 16.8S 178.5W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS 20.3S 176.9W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
504. HadesGodWyvern
10:27 AM GMT on February 27, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
18:00 PM JST February 27 2014
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.2N 148.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.3N 147.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
503. HadesGodWyvern
9:50 AM GMT on February 27, 2014
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
18:00 PM FST February 27 2014
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 16F (1001 hPa) located at 14.0S 160.0E is reported as moving west at 10 knots. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization poor. Deep convection persistent in past 12 hours. Disturbance 16F lies north of an upper ridge in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

This will be the final tropical disturbance summary for Tropical Disturbance 16F..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
502. HadesGodWyvern
9:46 AM GMT on February 27, 2014
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F
18:00 PM FST February 27 2014
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 15F (998 hPa) located at 16.8S 179.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as slowly moving.

Convection remains persistent along the southern flank in past 24 hours. Organization has not improved much in 24 hours. System lies under an uppr ridge, east of an upper trough in a low to moderate sheared environment. Outflow good to the south. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Cyclonic extends up to 500 HPA.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.3 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT=2.0, MET=2.5 and PT=2.0 Final Dvorak intensity is based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Global models agree on a northeast movement than southeast with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 16.3S 179.8E - 20 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS 16.7S 179.2W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS 20.2S 177.3W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
501. HadesGodWyvern
7:30 AM GMT on February 27, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03

15:00 PM JST February 27 2014
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 9.2N 148.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 8.8N 147.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
500. HadesGodWyvern
4:50 AM GMT on February 27, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
12:00 PM JST February 27 2014
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.4N 148.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.0N 147.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
499. HadesGodWyvern
1:43 AM GMT on February 27, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
9:00 AM JST February 27 2014
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.5N 149.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.1N 147.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
498. HadesGodWyvern
12:58 AM GMT on February 27, 2014
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST February 27 2014
====================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 15F (999 hPa) located at 17.4S 179.1E is reported as slowly moving. Position fair based on multispectral visible imagery and peripheral surface reports. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Convection remains persistent in the southern semi-circle. Organization has not improved much in the past 12 hours. Depression 15F lies in a moderate sheared environment and under an upper ridge and east of an upper trough. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and keep it slow moving in the next 24 hours with slight intensification.

Potential for this depression to form into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is low to moderate.

System #2
----------

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 16F (1002 hPa) located at 13.5S 160.5E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral visible imagery and peripheral surface reports. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Convection has not increased much in the past 12 hours. Organization remains poor. Td16f lies in a low sheared environment and under an upper level ridge. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and move it northwest before taking a southwest track with some intensification.

Potential for this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is low.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
497. HadesGodWyvern
11:38 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
6:00 AM JST February 27 2014
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.8N 149.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.1N 146.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
496. HadesGodWyvern
8:16 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
3:00 AM JST February 27 2014
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Chuuk

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 10.0N 150.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.3N 146.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
495. HadesGodWyvern
2:10 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
21:00 PM JST February 26 2014
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Chuuk

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 10.1N 150.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.8N 146.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
494. HadesGodWyvern
2:08 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
18:00 PM FST February 26 2014
====================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 15F (999 hPa) located at 17.2S 179.5E is reported as slowly moving. Position fair based on radar loop, microwave imagery and peripheral surface reports. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Convection remains persistent in the southern semi-circle. Organization has not improved much in the past 6 hours. Depression 15F lies in a moderate sheared environment and under an upper ridge and east of an upper shortwave trough. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and keep it slow moving in the next 24 hours with slight intensification.

Potential for this depression to form into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is low to moderate.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
493. HadesGodWyvern
2:04 PM GMT on February 26, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
18:00 PM JST February 26 2014
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Chuuk

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.9N 151.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.9N 147.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
492. HadesGodWyvern
7:45 AM GMT on February 26, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
15:00 PM JST February 26 2014
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Chuuk

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 9.8N 151.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.8N 148.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
491. HadesGodWyvern
2:48 AM GMT on February 26, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM JST February 26 2014
====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.0N 151.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
490. HadesGodWyvern
1:31 AM GMT on February 26, 2014
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST February 26 2014
====================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 15F (1000 hPa) located at 17.7S 176.4E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral visible/infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Convection remains persistent. Organization has not improved much past 6 hours. Depression 15F lies along a surface trough in a low to moderate sheared environment just south of an upper ridge and east of an upper trough. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and kept it slow moving in the next 24 hours.

Potential for this depression to form into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is low to moderate.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
489. HadesGodWyvern
2:10 PM GMT on February 25, 2014
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
18:00 PM FST February 25 2014
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 14F (1002 hPa) located at 15.9S 174.6E is reported as moving slowly. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. Sea surface temperatures is around 30C.

Organization has slightly improved in the past 12 hours. Convection has increased near low level circulation center. Depression 14F lies along a surface trough in a low sheared environment just south of an upper ridge and east of an upper trough. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it southeastward with further intensification.

Potential for this depression to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is moderate to high.

System #2
-----------

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 15F (1002 hPa) located at 18.2S 175.1E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Convection has increased significantly past 12 hours. Organization has improved past 6 hours. Depression 15F lies along a surface trough in a low to moderate sheared environment south of an upper ridge and east of an upper trough. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and move it southeastward with further intensification.

The potential for this depression to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is low to moderate.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
488. HadesGodWyvern
2:15 AM GMT on February 25, 2014
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST February 25 2014
====================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 14F (1002 hPa) located at 14.8S 172.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral visible/infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization has slightly improved in the past 12 hours. Convection has increased near the low level circulation center. Disturbance 14 lies along a surface trough in a low sheared environment just south of an upper ridge and east of an upper trough. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it southeastward with further intensification.

Potential for this depression to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is low to moderate.

System #2
-----------

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 15F (1002 hPa) located at 17.9S 174.9E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral visible/infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Convection has increased significantly in past 12 hours. Organization has improved in past 6 hours. Depression 15F lies along a surface trough in a low to moderate sheared environment south of an upper ridge and east of an upper trough. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it southeastward with further intensification.

Potential for this depression to form into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is low to moderate.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
487. HadesGodWyvern
2:53 PM GMT on February 24, 2014
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM FST February 24 2014
====================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 14F (1002 hPa) located at 13.3S 169.3E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization remains poor. Convection has increased slightly near low level circulation center in past 12 hours. Disturbance lies along a surface trough in a low to moderate sheared environment just south of an upper ridge. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it southeastward with further intensification.

Potential for this disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is low to moderate.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
486. HadesGodWyvern
2:08 PM GMT on February 22, 2014
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
DEPRESSION POST TROPICALE, FORMER TC GUITO (12-20132014)
16:00 PM RET February 22 2014
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Post Tropical Depression, Former Guito (990 hPa) located at 33.2S 41.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the northern and southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
130 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 180 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: NIL

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 35.6S 44.9E - Depression Post-Tropicale
24 HRS 38.5S 49.5E - Depression Post-Tropicale
48 HRS 41.9S 64.0E - Depression Extra-Tropicale

Additional Information
========================
Thanks to partial ASCAT swath (0659z), winds extensions have been recalibrated in the western semi-circle. After slowing down within last night, system is accelerating back southeastwards, rounding the southwestern edge of the low/mid levels high potential cell existing in its east. It is expected to accelerate east southeastwards more clearly on and after Sunday and to begin its extra-tropical transition from Monday. Then system is expected to merge in the westerly disturbed circulation of the temperate area.

Shifting over marginal and cooling heat oceanic contents (the system is currently tracking over sea surface temperature lesser than 25C) and undergoing the strengthening northwesterly wind shear, the system is expected to weaken regularly. A temporarily slight re-intensification keeps possible within Sunday night in relationship with structure change (gradual transition from post-tropical to extra-tropical phase).

This will be the final tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services on this system..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
485. HadesGodWyvern
7:15 AM GMT on February 22, 2014
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
DEPRESSION POST TROPICALE, FORMER TC GUITO (12-20132014)
10:00 AM RET February 22 2014
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Post Tropical Depression, Former Guito (982 hPa) located at 32.9S 40.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 14 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
45 NM radius from the center in the northwestern quadrant, extending up to 70 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
95 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 135 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
120 NM from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 170 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 180 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: NIL

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 34.6S 43.5E - Depression Post-Tropicale
24 HRS 37.3S 47.5E - Depression Post-Tropicale
48 HRS 41.5S 60.4E - Depression Extra-Tropicale
72 HRS 47.4S 76.1E - Depression Extra-Tropicale

Additional Information
========================
According to last ASCAT swath (1942z) strongest winds are mainly located in the western semi-circle. After slowing down within last night, system is accelerating back southeastwards, rounding the southwestern edge of the low/mid levels high potential cell existing in its east. It is expected to accelerate east southeastwards more clearly on and after Sunday and to begin its extra-tropical transition from Monday. Then system is expected to merge in the westerly disturbed circulation of the temperate area.

Shifting over marginal and cooling heat oceanic contents (the system is currently tracking over sea surface temperatures lesser than 25C) and undergoing the strengthening northwesterly wind shear, the system is expected to weaken regularly. A temporarily slight re-intensification keeps possible within Sunday night in relationship with structure change (gradual transition from post-tropical to extra-tropical phase).
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
484. HadesGodWyvern
3:26 AM GMT on February 22, 2014
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
DEPRESSION POST TROPICALE, FORMER TC GUITO (12-20132014)
4:00 AM RET February 22 2014
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Post Tropical Depression, Former Guito (983 hPa) located at 32.4S 40.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
40 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 70 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 105 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
130 NM radius from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: NIL

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 33.7S 42.4E - Depression Post-Tropicale
24 HRS 35.8S 45.5E - Depression Post-Tropicale
48 HRS 40.6S 56.2E - Depression Extra-Tropicale
72 HRS 43.0S 70.9E - Depression Se Dissipant

Additional Information
========================
Last TRMM data (1910z) show the center of low level circulation far from deep convection in the northwest. According to last scatt pass (1972z) strong winds are located mainly within the western semi-circle, and eastern sector.

Ex-guito is going on tracking southeastwards as the system is rounding the southwestern edge of the high potential cell existing in its east.

With a heat oceanic contents marginal (the system is currently tracking over sea surface temperature at less than 25C) and undergoing the strengthening northwesterly wind shear, the system has taken a post-tropical structure and continue to weaken slowly. On Sunday, the system may begin its extra-tropical transition by accelerating on an east southeastward track.

From Monday to Tuesday, the system is expected to melt in the westerly disturbed circulation of the temperate area.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
483. HadesGodWyvern
9:06 PM GMT on February 21, 2014
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GUITO (12-20132014)
22:00 PM RET February 21 2014
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Guito (983 hPa) located at 31.7S 40.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 150 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
150 NM radius from the center, extending up to 180 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 240 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 33.1S 41.3E - Depression Post-Tropicale
24 HRS 35.0S 44.0E - Depression Post-Tropicale
48 HRS 40.2S 53.9E - Depression Extra-Tropicale
72 HRS 41.4S 67.6E - Depression Extra-Tropicale

Additional Information
========================
Recently, the deep convection flared up in the southern sector, is now over more than the half part of the circulation. Without any complete scatt pass today over Guito, the current intensity is assessed on the basis of the Dvorak analysis. Given the fast motion, the estimated max wind is chosen on the high side of a CI at 3.0+ (associated with winds between 40 and 45 knots). This strong winds are estimated to be located mainly within the eastern semi-circle.

Today, Guito has begun to curve south-eastwards as the system is rounding the southwestern edge of the high potential cell existing in its east.

Tonight or tomorrow, when heat oceanic contents will become marginal (the system is currently leaving sea surface temperature at more than 26C) and undergoing the strengthening northwesterly wind shear, the system is expected to take a post-tropical structure and continue to weaken slowly. On Sunday, the system may begin its extra-tropical transition by accelerating on an east southeastward track.

From Monday to Tuesday, the system is expected to melt in the westerly disturbed circulation of the temperate area.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
482. HadesGodWyvern
4:01 PM GMT on February 21, 2014
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GUITO (12-20132014)
16:00 PM RET February 21 2014
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Guito (983 hPa) located at 30.8S 39.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 150 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
150 NM radius from the center, extending up to 180 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 240 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/3.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 32.1S 40.2E - Depression Post-Tropicale
24 HRS 33.9S 42.2E - Depression Post-Tropicale
48 HRS 38.6S 50.5E - Depression Extra-Tropicale
72 HRS 40.6S 64.8E - Depression Extra-Tropicale

Additional Information
========================
The overall pattern has continued to deteriorate through the day with even very little deep convection near the center around 0900z. Recently, the deep convection has started to flare up in the southern sector and close to the center. Without any complete scatt pass today over Guito, the current intensity is assessed on the basis of the Dvorak analysis. Given the fast motion, the estimated max wind is chosen on the high side of a CI at 3.0+ (associated with winds between 40-45 knots). This strong winds are estimated to be located mainly within the eastern semi-circle.

Today, Guito has begun to curve southeastwards as the system is rounding the southwestern edge of the high potential cell existing in its east.

Tonight or tomorrow, when heat oceanic contents will become marginal (the system is currently leaving sea surface temperature at more than 26C) and undergoing the strengthening northwesterly wind shear, the system is expected to take a post-tropical structure and continue to weaken slowly. On Sunday, the system may begin its extra-tropical transition by accelerating on an east southeastward track.

From Monday to Tuesday, the system is expected to melt in the westerly disturbed circulation of the temperate area.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
481. HadesGodWyvern
7:14 AM GMT on February 21, 2014
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE GUITO (12-20132014)
10:00 AM RET February 21 2014
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Guito (981 hPa) located at 29.6S 38.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 13 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
45 NM only in the eastern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 110 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 140 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 180 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 31.7S 39.7E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS 33.4S 41.3E - Depression Post-Tropicale
48 HRS 36.9S 47.6E - Depression Extra-Tropicale
72 HRS 39.9S 58.9E - Depression Extra-Tropicale

Additional Information
========================
The system shown some signs of organization between 0000 UTC and 0330 UTC on both microwave imagery and classical satellite imagery with some convective bands better wrapping around the center (SSMIS of 0141z) and a temporarily ragged eye seen at 0230 UTC - 0300 UTC. However microwave data along with recent visible imagery that depict a partly exposed center show that the vertical structure of the system is tilted towards the southeast (a 0.5 gap between the estimate surface center at 0300 UTC and the ragged eye seen on infrared imagery) under the influence of a 17 knots northwesterly shear (CIMSS at 0600z). Since 0300 UTC, the structure is deteriorating. The current intensity is estimate unchanged since 0000 UTC due to this "up" and "down" tendency.

Today, Guito should progressively recurve south-eastward by circumventing the southwestern edge of the high potential cell existing in its east. From Saturday, when heat oceanic contents will become marginal (24-25C) and undergoing the strengthening northwesterly wind shear, the system is expected to take a post-tropical structure and continue to weaken slowly. On Sunday, the system may begin its extra-tropical transition by accelerating on an east southeastward track.

From Monday to Tuesday, the system is expected to melt in the westerly disturbed circulation of the temperate area.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
480. HadesGodWyvern
6:18 AM GMT on February 21, 2014
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:15 PM CST February 21 2014
======================================

A weak tropical low in the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria is expected to remain weak and drift slowly west during the next few days.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
479. HadesGodWyvern
4:43 AM GMT on February 21, 2014
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE GUITO (12-20132014)
4:00 AM RET February 21 2014
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Guito (981 hPa) located at 28.7S 38.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 14 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
45 NM only in the eastern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 110 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 140 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 180 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 30.8S 39.0E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS 32.0S 40.2E - Depression Post-Tropicale
48 HRS 35.5S 45.2E - Depression Extra-Tropicale
72 HRS 39.8S 56.3E - Depression Extra-Tropicale

Additional Information
========================
For the last 6 hours, enhanced infra-red imagery shows that Guito has re-organized with a curved band pattern wrapping on about 0.7 wrap. 1800z CIMSS data suggest that the northwesterly wind-shear remains moderate (330/14 knots). The winds extensions have been calibrated thanks to 2118z oceansat2 swath. Good agreement with PGTW and KNES for Dvorak analysis (T3.0). It is very likely that storm force winds exist within the eastern semi-circle. The current intensity is maintained at 50 knots.

Today, Guito should progressively recurve southeastward by circumventing the southwestern edge of the high potential cell existing in its east. Following this track, the effect of the strengthening north-westerly high level winds, ahead of an approaching subtropical westerly jet should remain relatively limited. The system is forecast to weaken very slowly in a first time.

From Saturday, when heat oceanic contents will become marginal (24-25C) and undergoing the strengthening northwesterly wind shear, the system is expected to take a post-tropical structure and continue to weaken slowly. On Sunday, the system may begin its extra-tropical transition by accelerating on an east southeastward track.

From Monday to Tuesday, the system is expected to melt in the westerly disturbed circulation of the temperate area.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
478. HadesGodWyvern
8:19 PM GMT on February 20, 2014
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE GUITO (12-20132014)
22:00 PM RET February 20 2014
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Guito (980 hPa) located at 27.5S 38.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 17 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
45 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the southern semi-circle and up to 200 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 29.5S 38.7E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 31.2S 39.7E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 34.1S 43.2E - Depression Post-Tropicale
72 HRS 38.9S 52.3E - Depression Extra-Tropicale

Additional Information
========================
For the last 6 hours, enhanced infra-red imagery shows a system rather de-structured with a deep convection clearly fluctuating. 1423z F16 and 1520z F17 microwave pictures reveal an eroded eye within the northern semi-circle on 85ghz and a tilt between the low level center (visible on 37ghz) and this eroded eye in the mid layers.

Within the next 24 hours, Guito should progressively recurve southeastward by circumventing the south-western edge of the high potential cell existing in its east. Following this track, the effect of the strengthening northwesterly high level winds, ahead of an approaching subtropical westerly jet should remain relatively limited. The system is forecast to weaken very slowly in a first time.

From Saturday, when heat oceanic contents will become marginal and undergoing the strengthening northwesterly wind shear, the system is expected to take a post-tropical structure and continue to weaken slowly. On Sunday, the system may begin its extra-tropical transition by accelerating on an east southeastward track.

From Monday to Tuesday, the system is expected to melt in the westerly disturbed circulation of the temperate area.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657

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