TD Alvin - Baja California, Mexico

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER HARUNA (09-20122013)
10:00 AM RET February 24 2013
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Haruna (995 hPa) located at 26.3S 52.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 13 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
60 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 100 NM in the northwestern quadrant, and up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant, reaching 35 knots 90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.5/W1.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 26.6S 55.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 26.7S 57.5E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 26.0S 60.2E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)
72 HRS: 24.4S 59.5E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
========================
Under the combined effects of increasing vertical wind shear, cooler sea surface temperature and a significantly drier mid-level environment, deep convective activity has mostly vanished during the last 6 hours. First visible imagery reveal a completely exposed low level vortex. Latest satellite based intensity estimates have dropped (T number ranges between 1.0 and 2.0 among agencies) and the system is downgraded to the tropical depression status. Haruna is now tracking eastwards under the combined steering influence of the subtropical ridge rebuilding in its southwest and a westerly steering flow present over the northern side of a low to mid-level mid-lat trough currently located to the south of ex-Haruna.

On and after Monday late, as the mid-lat low bypass the system, the remnant low is expected to re-curve to the left on the northeastern edge of the subtropical ridge. It is then expected on and after Wednesday to track globally west northwestwards on the northern edge of the aforementioned subtropical ridge.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #7
TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY ONE (10U)
2:36 PM WST February 24 2013
=======================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Rusty (988 hPa) located at 17.2S 118.2E or 350 km north of Port Hedland and 435 km west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
140 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. Gales are expected to commence on the coast late on Sunday night or early on Monday.

During Monday the system will continue to intensify and there is a high risk that it will cross the coast as a severe tropical cyclone on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and is expected to move slower than usual resulting in higher than usual rainfall. Widespread very heavy rainfall is expected during Tuesday and Wednesday and is likely to lead to major flooding in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding in the Fortescue is also likely.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Wallal to Whim Creek

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Broome to Wallal and Whim Creek to Mardie and extending inland to Marble Bar

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 17.6S 118.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.1S 118.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 19.3S 119.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 21.3S 119.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
=======================
The system was located based on animated visible imagery center. The system has the structure of a large monsoonal system at present and the low level circulation center is relatively clear in animated visible imagery. Convection has developed to the south and curvature on the last three images has consistently been 0.6 supporting a DT of 3.0. MET agrees and FT/CI is set to 3.0. Additional support for T3.0 as the operational intensity analysis comes from observations at Bedout Island which has been in sustained gales since 0200UTC.

ADT was initialized at 0330UTC and is still at CI=2.7. No AMSU intensity estimates available.No recent

CIMSS shear analysis at 00Z showed >20 knots shear over much of the system but the low level circulation center close to the shear ridge. Conditions are favorable for intensification. Shear is expected to drop as the system moves south, sea surface temperatures are very high and there is not expected to be any dry air intrusion. Consequently it is expected to intensify steadily with a period of rapid intensification likely at some stage. Outflow in southern quadrants is expected to improve during Monday.

The size and translation speed of the system is likely to lead to larger than usual rainfall accumulations and the model guidance is in line with this leading to concerns of major flooding in the De Grey. Significant flooding also likely in the Fortescue and Pilbara coastal streams.

Model guidance still shows some spread, but amongst models that intensify the system there is better agreement. A track just west of Port Hedland is possible but the consensus track has consistently been to the east of Port Hedland. A track to the west of Port Hedland would lead to concerns of a major storm surge in that area.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #8
TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY ONE (10U)
6:04 PM WST February 24 2013
=======================================

At 5:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Rusty (986 hPa) located at 17.2S 118.1E or 350 km north of Port Hedland and 445 km west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. Gales are expected to commence on the coast overnight between Wallal and Whim Creek extending north to Broome during Monday.

During Monday the system will continue to intensify and there is a high risk that it will cross the coast as a severe tropical cyclone on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and is expected to move slower than usual resulting in higher than usual rainfall. Widespread very heavy rainfall is expected during Tuesday and Wednesday and is likely to lead to major flooding in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding in the Fortescue is also likely.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Broome to Whim Creek including Port Hedland

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Mardie, including Karratha and Dampier and extending inland to Marble Bar

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #9
TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY ONE (10U)
8:52 PM WST February 24 2013
=======================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Rusty (985 hPa) located at 17.4S 118.1E or 330 km north of Port Hedland and 445 km west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
160 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. Gales are expected on the coast overnight between Wallal and Whim Creek and then extending north to Broome during Monday.

Further intensification is likely as the cyclone approaches the coast on Monday and Tuesday and there is a high risk that it will cross the coast as a severe tropical cyclone. However, the slow motion of the cyclone means that the crossing time and location is uncertain.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement should result in higher than usual rainfall in the Pilbara and western Kimberley. Very heavy rainfall is expected in near coastal parts of the eastern Pilbara and western Kimberley on Monday. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread heavy rainfall is likely to lead to major flooding in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding in the Fortescue is also likely.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Broome to Whim Creek, including Port Hedland

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Mardie including Karratha and Dampier and extending inland to Marble Bar and Millstream

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 17.8S 118.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.3S 118.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 19.4S 118.8E - 85 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 20.5S 118.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
=======================
The cyclone was located by animated visible and infrared imagery center. The system has the structure of a large monsoonal system at present with the strongest winds removed from the center. Bedout Island has been reporting sustained winds of 40-45 knots in a persisting convective band to the south. Convection is now developing closer to the center, although there isn't a continuous band to support a Dvorak curved band any higher than 0.4. A Dvorak FT/CI of 3.0 is biased towards MET..

ADT was initialized at 0330UTC and is still at CI=2.7. No AMSU/SATCON intensity estimates are yet available.

CIMSS shear analysis at 12Z showed -10 knots shear over the system and with strong upper level divergence and high sea surface temperatures, environmental conditions are favorable for intensification. Steady intensification is forecast through to +24h but a period of rapid intensification is quite possible at some stage when convection becomes focused near the center.

Slow south to southeast motion towards the coast is likely in the next 48 hours. Later on Tuesday a mid-level ridge is expected to develop southwest of the system which may balance the flow sufficiently to arrest the southerly motion and lead to slow and erratic motion before the system crosses the coast. This increases the uncertainty of the crossing location and timing.

The size and translation speed of the system is likely to lead to larger than usual rainfall accumulations and the model guidance is in line with this leading to concerns of major flooding in the De Grey. Significant flooding also likely in the Fortescue and Pilbara coastal streams.

The slow motion is also likely to cause a greater chance that tides along the Pilbara coast will rise well above the predicted high tides on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE, FORMER HARUNA (09-20122013)
16:00 PM RET February 24 2013
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Subtropical Depression, Former Haruna (995 hPa) located at 26.9S 54.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 17 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
75 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant, and up to 110 NM in the northwestern quadrant reaching 35 knots up to 60 NM from the center in the northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 27.0S 56.7E - 30 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
24 HRS: 26.6S 58.4E - 30 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
48 HRS: 25.6S 60.0E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)
72 HRS: 23.8S 58.6E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
========================
Amsu cross section of brightness temp anomalies show that the warm core associated with ex-Haruna is becoming shallower and less symetrical. The system is losing tropical characteristics. Haruna is now racing eastwards under the combined steering influence of the subtropical ridge rebuilding in its southwest and a westerly steering flow present over the northern side of a low to mid-level mid-lat trough currently located to the south of ex-Haruna. On and after Monday late, as the mid-lat low bypass the system, the remnant low is expected to re-curve to the left on the northeastern edge of the subtropical ridge.It is then expected on and after Wednesday to track globally west northwestwards on the northern edge of the aforementioned subtropical ridge before dissipation during the second half of the week.

Last advisory on this system unless re-intensification. Further information will be provided in the AWIO20 bulletin daily issued at 1200z.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY ONE (10U)
11:58 PM WST February 24 2013
=======================================

At 11:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Rusty (980 hPa) located at 17.4S 118.2E or 325 km north of Port Hedland and 430 km west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. Gales are expected on the coast between Wallal and Whim Creek and then extending north to Broome during Monday.

Further intensification is likely as the cyclone approaches the coast on Monday and Tuesday and there is a high risk that it will cross the coast as a severe tropical cyclone. However, the slow motion of the cyclone means that the crossing time and location is uncertain.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement should result in higher than usual rainfall in the Pilbara and western Kimberley. Very heavy rainfall is expected in near coastal parts of the eastern Pilbara and western Kimberley on Monday. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread heavy rainfall is likely to lead to major flooding in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding in the
Fortescue is also likely.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Broome to Whim Creek, including Port Hedland

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Mardie including Karratha and Dampier and extending inland to Marble Bar and Millstream

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #11
TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY ONE (10U)
2:57 AM WST February 25 2013
=======================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Rusty (978 hPa) located at 17.5S 118.2E or 315 km north of Port Hedland and 430 km west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 2 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
160 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. Gales are expected to develop on the coast between Wallal and Whim Creek early Monday morning, before extending north towards Broome on Monday afternoon. On Tuesday gales could extend as far west as Mardie and inland towards Marble Bar.

Further intensification is likely as the cyclone approaches the coast on Monday and Tuesday and there is a high risk that it will cross the coast as a severe tropical cyclone. However, the slow motion of the cyclone means that the crossing time and location is uncertain.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in higher than usual rainfall in the Pilbara and western Kimberley. Very heavy rainfall is expected in near coastal parts of the eastern Pilbara and western Kimberley on Monday. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to major flooding in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding in the Fortescue is also likely.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Broome to Whim Creek, including Port Hedland.

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Mardie including Karratha and Dampier and extending inland to Marble Bar and Millstream

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 17.9S 118.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.6S 118.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 19.5S 118.9E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 20.9S 119.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
=======================
The cyclone was located by animated IR imagery center. The system has the structure of a large monsoonal system at present with the strongest winds removed from the center. Bedout Island reported sustained winds of 40-45 knots during Sunday in a persisting convective band to the south. Convection is now starting to wrap around the center, and the last two images have suggested a wrap of around 0.6, yielding a DT of 3.0. The system has showed significant development over the past 24 hours, so MET has been set at 3.5. At this time FT has been held at 3.0 and the system remains at 45 knots, but the expectation is for this to increase to 50 knots by 2100UTC.

ADT has been gradually increasing, with CI=3.4 at 1830UTC. SATCON intensity estimates are around 45 knots.

CIMSS shear analysis at 18Z showed less than 10 knots shear over the system and with strong upper level divergence and high sea surface temperatures, environmental conditions are favorable for intensification. Steady intensification is forecast through to beyond 24 hours but a period of rapid intensification is quite possible at some stage when convection becomes focused near the center.

Slow south to southeast motion towards the coast is likely in the next 48 hours. Later on Tuesday a mid-level ridge is expected to develop southwest of the system which may balance the flow sufficiently to arrest the southerly motion and lead to slow and erratic motion before the system crosses the coast. This increases the uncertainty of the crossing location and timing.

The size and translation speed of the system is likely to lead to larger than usual rainfall accumulations and the model guidance is in line with this leading to concerns of major flooding in the De Grey. Significant flooding also likely in the Fortescue and Pilbara coastal streams.

The slow motion is also likely to cause a greater chance that tides along the Pilbara coast will rise well above the predicted high tides on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #12
TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY TWO (10U)
5:48 AM WST February 25 2013
=======================================

At 5:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Rusty (975 hPa) located at 17.5S 118.3E or 315 km north of Port Hedland and 420 km west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly stationary.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. Gales are expected to develop on the coast between Wallal and Whim Creek during Monday morning, before extending north towards Broome on Monday afternoon. On Tuesday gales could extend as far west as Mardie and inland towards Marble Bar.

Further intensification is likely as the cyclone approaches the coast on Monday and Tuesday and there is a high risk that it will cross the coast as a severe tropical cyclone. However, the slow motion of the cyclone means that the crossing time and location is uncertain.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in higher than usual rainfall in the Pilbara and western Kimberley. Very heavy rainfall is expected in near coastal parts of the eastern Pilbara and western Kimberley on Monday. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to major flooding in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding in the Fortescue is also likely.


Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Broome to Whim Creek, including Port Hedland

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Mardie including Karratha and Dampier and extending inland to Marble Bar and Millstream

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST February 25 2013
================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 15F (1005 hPa) located at 19.8S 178.5W is reported as moving slowly. Position good based on GMS visible and peripheral surface reports.

Organization has not changed much in past 24 hours. Low level circulation exposed. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a highly sheared environment.

Global models are not keen on developing this system.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #13
TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY TWO (10U)
8:42 AM WST February 25 2013
=======================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Rusty (972 hPa) located at 17.5S 118.3E or 315 km north of Port Hedland and 430 km west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly stationary.

Storm Force Winds
==================
75 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. Gales are expected to develop on the coast between Wallal and Whim Creek during Monday morning, before extending north towards Broome on Monday afternoon. On Tuesday gales could extend as far west as Mardie and inland towards Marble Bar.

Further intensification is likely as the cyclone approaches the coast on Monday and Tuesday and there is a high risk that it will cross the coast as a severe tropical cyclone. However, the slow motion of the cyclone means that the crossing time and location is uncertain.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in higher than usual rainfall in the Pilbara and western Kimberley. Very heavy rainfall is expected in near coastal parts of the eastern Pilbara and western Kimberley on Monday. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to major flooding in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams is also likely.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Broome to Whim Creek

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Mardie including Karratha and Dampier and extending inland to Marble Bar and Millstream

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 18.0S 118.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.7S 118.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 19.5S 118.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 21.4S 118.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
=======================
The cyclone was located by microwave imagery, animated infrared imagery with some support from offshore observations. The system has the structure of a large monsoonal system at present with the strongest winds removed from the center. Bedout Island reported sustained winds of 40-45 knots during Sunday in a persisting convective band to the south.

DT of 3.0 obtained with 0.6-0.7 wrap on infrared on 1930-2230 images. The system has showed significant development over the past 24 hours and MET is 3.5. FT and CI are set to 3.5. ADT is at CI 3.5. AMSU estimates are slightly higher at around 55-58 knots 10-min mean. SATCON at 20UTC was 47 knots 1-min mean. Final intensity estimate is 50 knot 10-min mean winds.

CIMSS shear analysis is around 10 knots at 00Z. There is strong upper level divergence and high sea surface temperatures. Environmental conditions are very favorable for intensification. Steady intensification is forecast through to after 24 hours but a period of rapid intensification is quite possible at some stage when convection becomes focused near the center.

Slow south to southeast motion towards the coast is likely in the next 48 hours. Later on Tuesday a mid-level ridge is expected to develop southwest of the system which may balance the flow sufficiently to arrest the southerly motion and lead to slow and erratic motion before the system crosses the coast. This increases the uncertainty of the crossing location and timing.

The size and translation speed of the system is likely to lead to larger than usual rainfall accumulations and the model guidance is in line with this leading to concerns of major flooding in the De Grey. Significant flooding also likely in the Fortescue and Pilbara coastal streams.

The slow motion is also likely to cause a greater chance that tides along the Pilbara coast will rise well above the predicted high tides on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 11U
8:52 AM WST February 25 2013
=========================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (995 hPa) located at 13.2S 98.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The low is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.7S 98.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 14.2S 98.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.8S 99.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 15.3S 101.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
The system was located based on animated near-infrared and infrared imagery of exposed low level circulation center.

Convection has been limited to the western flank of the low in a moderate to high shear environment. Deep convection has been trying to form close to the low level circulation center in recent images but have failed to persist. CIMSS shear analysis at 24/18Z indicates an area of high shear gradient near the system of about 30 knots [shear increasing towards the north]. It's evident that dry air is also located to the west of the system but has no impact on development at this stage.

The cloud pattern continues to show a little organisation and curvature during the last 6-12 hours. Dvorak analysis at 25/00Z yields a DT=2.5 based on a shear pattern [<3/4deg from strong temperature gradient]. MET=2.5 and PAT=2.0. FT is based on DT.

ASCAT-B pass at 24/1527Z indicated an area of gales to the northwest and northeast of the system [up to 45 knots] associated with a vigorous monsoonal flow. Cocos Island Airport observation have reported gales since 24/17Z. System is assigned below TC intensity based on Australian requirements for gales to extend more than half way around the centre. Max winds near the centre of the low are estimated at 30 knots.

Recent movement has been towards the south. Steering appears to be balanced between the monsoonal northwesterlies to the north and southeasterlies from a mid-level ridge to the south. Consensus of models indicates a motion to the south to southeast for the next 24-48 hours. This may place the system in a lower shear environment [although still 10-20 knots]. Therefore a slow development rate is expected, which means the system could reach TC intensity within 24 hours.

In the longer term, the mid-level ridge begins to weaken mid-week ahead of a short wave feature and this allows motion to tend towards the east. There is some model disagreement and there is a possibility that the system could continue moving south in the long term as well. Some models also indicate that mid-level dry air gets entangled with the system which causes the system to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #14
TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY TWO (10U)
11:45 AM WST February 25 2013
=======================================

At 11:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Rusty (972 hPa) located at 17.6S 118.9E or 305 km north of Port Hedland and 410 km north northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly stationary.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. Overnight it moved very slowly to the east southeast but it is likely to resume a more southward track by this evening.

Gales are expected to develop on the coast between Wallal and Whim Creek during the early afternoon, possibly extending north towards Broome this evening. On Tuesday gales could extend as far west as Mardie and inland towards Marble Bar and Millstream.

Further intensification is likely as the cyclone approaches the coast on Monday and Tuesday and there is a HIGH RISK THAT RUSTY WILL CROSS THE COAST AS A SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE. However, the slow motion of the cyclone means that the crossing time and location is uncertain.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in higher than usual rainfall in the Pilbara and western Kimberley. Very heavy rainfall is expected in near coastal parts of the eastern Pilbara and western Kimberley on Monday. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams is also likely.

Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre nears the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Broome to Whim Creek

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Mardie including Karratha and Dampier and extending inland to Marble Bar and Millstream

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #15
TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY TWO (10U)
2:43 PM WST February 25 2013
=======================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Rusty (970 hPa) located at 17.7S 119.0E or 295 km north of Port Hedland and 345 km west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly stationary.

Storm Force Winds
==================
75 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in southern quadrants
170 NM from the center in northern quadrants

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. It has recently moved slowly to the east southeast but it is likely to resume a more southward track later this afternoon or this evening.

Gales are expected to develop on the coast between Wallal and Whim Creek during this afternoon, possibly extending north towards Broome this evening or overnight. During Tuesday afternoon gales could extend west to Karratha and begin to extend inland towards Marble Bar and Millstream.

Further intensification is likely as the cyclone approaches the coast. There is a HIGH RISK THAT RUSTY WILL CROSS THE COAST AS A SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE. However, the slow motion of the cyclone means that the crossing time and location is uncertain.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in rainfall that is heavier than that associated with a typical tropical cyclone. Very heavy rainfall is expected in near coastal parts of the eastern Pilbara and western Kimberley over the next few days. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center nears the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INNUNDATION.


Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas for adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara including Marble Bar, Nullagine and Millstream

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 18.3S 119.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.9S 119.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 19.8S 119.2E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 22.2S 119.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
=======================
ASCAT pass at 0139Z indicated minimum maximum winds of 50 knots and agreed with position just south of Rowley Shoals. Curved band wrap of around 0.7 to 0.8 obtained off recent VIS imagery giving DT 3.0 to 3.5. MET is 4.0based on a D trend, but PAT is 3.5. ADT is still at 3.5 and latest CIMSS AMSU intensity estimate [05Z] was around 60 knots 10-min mean. SATCON latest was 55 knots 10-min mean Final intensity estimate is 55 knots 10-min mean.

CIMSS shear estimate is southesat at around 9 knots. Environmental conditions are very favorable for intensification with strong upper level divergence and high sea surface temperatures. Steady intensification is forecast through to after 24 hours but a period of rapid intensification is quite possible at some stage when convection becomes focused near the center.

Slow south to southeast motion towards the coast is likely in the next 48 hours. Later on Tuesday a mid-level ridge is expected to develop southwest of the system which may balance the flow sufficiently to arrest the southerly motion and lead to slow and erratic motion before the system crosses the coast. This increases the uncertainty of the crossing location and timing.

The size and translation speed of the system is likely to lead to larger than usual rainfall accumulations and the model guidance is in line with this leading to concerns of major flooding in the De Grey. Significant flooding also likely in the Fortescue and Pilbara coastal streams.

The slow motion also creates a greater chance that tides along the Pilbara coast will rise well above the predicted high tides on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 11U
3:04 PM WST February 25 2013
=========================================

At 3:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (995 hPa) located at 14.1S 98.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The low is reported as moving south southeast at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.1S 98.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 15.5S 99.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 15.9S 100.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 16.4S 102.2E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
The system was located based on animated visible imagery of exposed low level circulation center. During the last 6 hours the area of convection on the western flank of the low has shown a significant decrease in both the areal extend and organization, indicative of a high shear environment. CIMSS shear analysis at 25/00Z and 25/06Z suggests 30 knots westerly shear.

Dvorak analysis at 25/06Z yields a DT=2.0 based on a shear pattern [70nm from low level circulation center to edge of deep convection]. This distance has been increasing during the last few hours. MET=1.0 and PAT=1.5. FT is based on DT. CI is held at 2.5.

ASCAT-B pass at 25/0242Z indicated an area of 30-40 knots winds associated with a vigorous monsoonal flow north of the system and marginal gales to the southwest. Cocos Island Airport observations have reported winds below gale force since 25/02Z. Max winds near the center of the low are estimated at 30 knots.

Recent movement continues towards the south. The steering pattern is based on strong monsoonal northwesterlies to the north and a weaker mid-level ridge to the south. Consensus of models indicates a continual motion to the south to southeast. This may place the system in a slightly lower shear environment, allowing the low level circulation center to become better associated with the deep convection again. Therefore a slow development rate is possible and tropical cyclone development could occur within the next 18-24 hours.

In the longer term, the mid-level ridge will weaken ahead of a short wave feature and this will allow the southeast motion to continue. Consequently, the system may move into an area of lower ocean heat content. Some models also indicate that mid-level dry air gets entangled with the system.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #17
TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY TWO (10U)
5:54 PM WST February 25 2013
=======================================

At 5:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Rusty (968 hPa) located at 18.1S 119.0E or 250 km north of Port Hedland and 345 km west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 3 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. It has recently moved to the south southeast but it is likely to take a southerly track overnight.

Gales are expected on the coast between Wallal and Whim Creek overnight. During Tuesday afternoon gales could extend west to Karratha and begin to extend inland towards Marble Bar and Millstream.

Further intensification is likely as the tropical cyclone approaches the coast. There is a HIGH RISK THAT RUSTY WILL CROSS THE COAST AS A SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE. However, the slow motion of the tropical cyclone means that the crossing time and location is uncertain.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in rainfall that is heavier than that associated with a typical tropical cyclone. Very heavy rainfall is expected in near coastal parts of the eastern Pilbara and western Kimberley over the next few days. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center near the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INNUNDATION.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara including Marble Bar, Nullagine and Millstream

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #17
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY THREE (10U)
9:02 PM WST February 25 2013
=======================================

At 9:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty (960 hPa) located at 18.3S 119.1E or 230 km north northeast and 335 km west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
60 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center in southern quadrants
160 NM from the center in northern quadrants

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast and intensifying. It was moving to the south southeast but has begun to move to south over the last few hours.

Gales are expected on the coast between Wallal and Whim Creek overnight. During Tuesday afternoon gales could extend west to Karratha and begin to extend inland towards Marble Bar and Millstream.

Destructive winds with gusts to 195 km/h may develop in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Wallal during Tuesday morning as Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty approaches the Pilbara coast.

Further intensification is likely as the tropical cyclone approaches the coast. The slow motion of the tropical cyclone means that the crossing time and location is uncertain.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in rainfall that is heavier than that associated with a typical tropical cyclone. Very heavy rainfall is expected in near coastal parts of the eastern Pilbara and western Kimberley over the next few days. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center nears the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INNUNDATION.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie, and adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine and Millstream

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara including Tom Price, Newman and Telfer

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 18.9S 119.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 19.4S 119.0E - 85 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 20.4S 118.8E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 23.1S 118.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
=======================
Ragged eye feature apparent on 0930UTC IR suggests DT 4.5, but MET and PAT suggest 4.0. Rowley Shoals reports 68 knots 10 minute mean at 1200 therefore intensity set at 70 knots. An anomalously large radius to maximum wind is apparent from this observation, estimated at 45 nm.

Both radar imagery and latest SSMIS imagery indicate a very elongated asymetric eye [100 nm by 50 nm] suggesting that whilst intensification is occurring, rapid development is likely to be constrained in the short term. Erratic short term motion is likely. Intensity is capped at 100 kn at present, though should the eye structure improve the system could undoubtedly intensify to a higher category.

Slow southward motion towards the coast is likely in the next 48 hours. Later on Tuesday a mid-level ridge is expected to develop southwest of the system which may balance the flow sufficiently to arrest the southerly motion and lead to slow and erratic motion, possibly to the west, before the system crosses the coast. This increases the uncertainty of the crossing location and timing.

The size and translation speed of the system is likely to lead to larger than usual rainfall accumulations and the model guidance is in line with this leading to concerns of major flooding in the De Grey. Significant flooding also likely in the Fortescue and Pilbara coastal streams.

The slow motion also creates a greater chance that tides along the Pilbara coast will rise significantly above the predicted high tides on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 11U
9:02 PM WST February 25 2013
=========================================

At 9:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (995 hPa) located at 14.3S 98.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The low is reported as moving south southeast at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.5/W0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.8S 98.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 15.1S 99.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 15.5S 100.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 15.5S 102.3E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
The system was located based on animated near IR imagery of exposed low level circulation center. During the last 12 hours the area of convection on the western flank of the low has shown a significant decrease in both the areal extend and organization, indicative of a high shear environment, although there has been an increase in convection over the last 3 hours. CIMSS shear analysis at 25/06Z suggests 30 knots westerly shear.

Dvorak analysis at 25/12Z yields a DT=1.5 based on a shear pattern [50nm from low level circulation center to edge of deep convection, although for the previous 6 hours it was at around 70nm]. MET= PAT=1.5. FT is 1.5 while CI is held at 2.5.

ASCAT-B pass at 25/0242Z indicated an area of 30-40kt winds associated with a vigorous monsoonal flow N of the system and marginal gales to the southwest. Cocos Island Airport observations have reported winds below gale force since 25/02Z. Max winds near the center of the low are estimated at 30 knots.

Recent movement continues towards the south. The steering pattern is based on strong monsoonal northwesterlies to the north and a weaker mid-level ridge to the south. Consensus of models indicates a continual motion to the south to southeast . This may place the system in a slightly lower shear environment, allowing the low level circulation center to become better associated with the deep convection again. Therefore a slow development rate is possible and tropical cyclone development could occur within the next 18-24 hours.

In the longer term, the mid-level ridge will weaken ahead of a short wave feature and this will allow the southeast motion to continue. Consequently, the system may move into an area of lower ocean heat content. Some models also indicate that mid-level dry air gets entangled with the system.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #18
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY THREE (10U)
11:57 PM WST February 25 2013
=======================================

At 11:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty (957 hPa) located at 18.5S 119.1E or 210 km north northeast of Port Hedland and 340 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty is continuing to intensify as it moves slowly towards the coast. The slow motion of the tropical cyclone means that the expected crossing time and location remains uncertain.

Gales are expected on the coast between Wallal and Whim Creek this morning. During the afternoon gales could extend west to Karratha and begin to extend inland towards Marble Bar and Millstream.

Destructive winds with gusts to 105 knots may develop in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Wallal during the morning as Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty approaches the Pilbara coast.

This is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in an extended period of destructive winds near the track, with rainfall that is heavier than that associated with a typical system. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre nears the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INNUNDATION.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Broome to Mardie, and adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine and Millstream

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara including Tom Price, Newman and Telfer

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #19
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY THREE (10U)
3:01 AM WST February 26 2013
=======================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty (957 hPa) located at 18.7S 119.2E or 190 km north northeast of Port Hedland and 335 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
55 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
140 NM from the center in northern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty is continuing to intensify as it moves slowly towards the coast. The slow motion of the tropical cyclone means that the expected crossing time and location remains uncertain.

Gales are expected on the coast between Wallal and Whim Creek this morning. During the afternoon and evening gales could extend west to Karratha and begin to extend inland towards Marble Bar.

Destructive winds with gusts to 105 knots may develop in coastal parts between Port Hedland and Wallal during the morning and afternoon as Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty approaches the Pilbara coast.

This is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in an extended period of destructive winds near the track, with rainfall that is heavier than that associated with a typical system. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center nears the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Broome to Mardie, and adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine and Millstream

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara including Tom Price, Newman and Telfer

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 19.3S 119.2E - 85 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 19.4S 119.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 20.6S 118.9E - 85 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 24.2S 118.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
=======================
Ragged eye feature apparent on the infrared imagery, MET and PAT suggest 4.5. Rowley Shoals reports 68 kn 10 minute mean at 1200UTC. ADT estimates intensity of 77 knots at 1815UTC. An abnormally large radius to maximum wind is apparent from this observation, estimated at 45 nm.

Both radar imagery and latest SSMIS imagery indicate a very elongated asymetric eye [100 nm by 50 nm] suggesting that whilst intensification is occurring, rapid development is likely to be constrained in the short term. Erratic short term motion is likely. Intensity is capped at 100 knots at present, though should the eye structure improve the system could undoubtedly intensify to a higher category.

Slow southward motion towards the coast is likely in the next 48 hours. Later on Tuesday a mid-level ridge is expected to develop southwest of the system which may balance the flow sufficiently to arrest the southerly motion and lead to slow and erratic motion, possibly to the west, before the system crosses the coast. This increases the uncertainty of the crossing location and timing.

The size and translation speed of the system is likely to lead to larger than usual rainfall accumulations and the model guidance is in line with this leading to concerns of major flooding in the De Grey. Significant flooding also likely in the Fortescue and Pilbara coastal streams.

The slow motion also creates a greater chance that tides along the Pilbara coast will rise significantly above the predicted high tides on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 11U
2:41 AM WST February 26 2013
=========================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (996 hPa) located at 14.3S 98.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The low is reported as nearly stationary.

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center in northern quadrants

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.5S 98.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 14.7S 98.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.7S 100.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 14.9S 101.8E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
The system was located based on animated near infrared imagery of exposed low level circulation center and 1355Z TC SSMIS microwave image. During the last 6 hours the area of convection on the western flank of the low has moved closer to the low level circulation center, indicating shear may have decreased, although is still significant with CIMSS shear analysis at 25/12Z suggesting 25 knots shear.

Dvorak analysis at 25/18Z yields a DT=2.0 to 2.5 based on a shear pattern [45nm from low level circulation center to edge of deep convection]. 24 hours trend is steady so MET= 2.0 and PAT agrees. FT =2.0 while CI is held at 2.5.

Scatterometer data has not passed the area since ASCAT-B pass at 25/0242Z indicated an area of 30-40 knots winds associated with a vigorous monsoonal flow north of the system and marginal gales to the southwest. Cocos Island Airport observations have reported winds around 20kt for the last 6 hours as the low moves away. Max winds near the center of the low are estimated at 30 knots.

Recent movement is very slow towards the SSE. The steering pattern is based on strong monsoonal northwesterlies to the north and a weaker mid-level ridge to the south. Consensus of models indicates a continual motion to the south to southeast. This may place the system in a slightly lower shear environment, allowing the low level circulation center to become better associated with the deep convection again. Therefore a slow development rate is possible and tropical cyclone development could occur within the next 12-18 hours.

In the longer term, the mid-level ridge will weaken ahead of a short wave feature and this will allow the southeast to east motion to continue. Some models also indicate that mid-level dry air gets entangled with the system.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #20
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY THREE (10U)
5:44 AM WST February 26 2013
=======================================

At 5:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty (957 hPa) located at 18.9S 119.2E or 170 km north northeast of Port Hedland and 320 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 4 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty has intensified over overnight, as it continues to move slowly southwards towards the coast. The slow motion of the tropical cyclone means that the expected crossing time and location remains uncertain.

Gales are occuring on the coast between Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek, and may extend west to Karratha and begin to extend inland towards Marble Bar and Millstream during the afternoon and evening.

Very Destructive winds with gusts to 105 knots may develop in coastal parts between Port Hedland and Wallal during the day, as Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty approaches the Pilbara coast.

This is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in an extended period of destructive winds near the track, with rainfall that is heavier than that associated with a typical system. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center nears the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Broome to Mardie, and adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine and
Millstream

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara including Tom Price, Newman and Telfer

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #21
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY THREE (10U)
8:53 AM WST February 26 2013
=======================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty (957 hPa) located at 18.9S 119.2E or 170 km north northeast of Port Hedland and 320 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
55 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center in southern quadrants
140 NM from the center in northern quadrants

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty intensified overnight and continues to move slowly southwards towards the coast. The slow motion and large size of Rusty means that the destructive and very destructive winds will occur on the coast well before the center crosses the coast, and will extend some distance from the center. Wind gusts to 65 knots are already being experienced in Port Hedland and conditions there are likely to get slowly worse during Tuesday and into Wednesday.

Gales are occurring on the coast between Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek, with destructive winds extending from near Port Hedland to around Wallal. Gales may extend west to Karratha and begin to extend inland towards Marble Bar and Millstream on Wednesday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 105 knots are likely to develop in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Pardoo during Wednesday as Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty approaches the coast.

This is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in an extended period of destructive winds near the track, with rainfall that is heavier than that associated with a typical system. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center nears the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Mardie, and adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine and
Millstream.

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara including Tom Price, Newman and Telfer

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 19.3S 119.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 19.5S 118.8E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 21.4S 118.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 25.7S 118.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================
ADT: CI 3.9, Raw 3.4
AMSU: no update since 08Z
SATCON: no update since 08Z

DVORAK: FT and CI of 4 based on 0.8 to 0.9 wrap, MET 4.0 based on D-, PAT agrees. The system did show signs of slight weakening between 1600 and 2100Z but is expected to resume intensification during today. Final intensity estimate is left at 75 knots for operational reasons. Rowley Shoals reported a 68 knot 10 minute mean at 1200UTC. CIMSS wind shear at 18UTC was 3 m/s ENE.

The system is slowly contracting but the storm radius and radius to maximum winds is still much larger than usual. Both radar imagery and SSMIS imagery show a large and slightly elongated eye that has been slowly contracting as part of the intensification process. Rapid development is only likely once the eye has further contracted.

Slow southward motion towards the coast is likely in the short term. Later on Tuesday a mid-level ridge is expected to develop southwest of the system which may balance the flow sufficiently to arrest the southerly motion and lead to slow and erratic motion, possibly to the west, before the system crosses the coast. This increases the uncertainty of the crossing location and timing.

The size and translation speed of the system is likely to lead to larger than usual rainfall accumulations and the model guidance is in line with this leading to concerns of major flooding in the De Grey. Significant flooding also likely in the Fortescue and Pilbara coastal streams.

The slow motion also creates a greater chance that tides along the Pilbara coast will rise significantly above the predicted high tides on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 11U
9:06 AM WST February 26 2013
=========================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (996 hPa) located at 14.9S 98.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The low is reported as moving south southwest at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.3S 98.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 15.3S 98.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 15.2S 99.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 15.3S 101.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
Location based on poorly defined partially exposed low level circulation center in animated near-infrared imagery and 1552Z AMSU-B microwave image. Deep convection has persisted within 0.75 degrees of the low level circulation center in the western semicircle and the low level circulation center has moved closer to the edge of the overcast during the past 6 hours. CIMSS shear analysis at 25/18Z indicates 25 knots vertical wind shear.

Dvorak analysis at 25/23Z yields a DT=2.5 based on a shear pattern. 24 hours trend is steady so MET=2.5 and PAT agrees. FT=2.5. The OceanSAT pass at 25/1804Z indicated an area of 30-40 knots winds in the western sector, extending around 90nm from the centre to the northwest and around 120nm to the southwest. SATCON intensity estimate is 44kts at 20Z based mainly on AMSU data. Final intensity estimate kept below tropical cyclone intensity at 30 knots.

Recent movement is slowly south in tandem with Severe tropical cyclone Rusty to the east. Steering pattern is a balance between the monsoonal westerly flow to the north and easterlies to the south associated with the steering ridge. The model consensus forecasts a turn to the east as the steering ridge to the south weakens, after around 24 hours of southward motion. A slow development rate is forecast, with tropical cyclone development likely later today.

In the longer term, most models indicate a weakening trend after 24-36 hours, however, southward movement into a lower shear environment may allow a tropical cyclone to persist over warm waters for slightly longer until mid-level dry air gets entangled with the system.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #23
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY THREE (10U)
11:28 AM WST February 26 2013
=======================================

At 11:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty (957 hPa) located at 19.2S 119.1E or 140 km north northeast of Port Hedland and 295 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 3 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty intensified overnight and continues to move slowly southwards towards the coast. The slow motion and large size of Rusty means that the destructive and very destructive winds will occur on the coast well before the center crosses the coast, and will extend some distance from the center. Wind gusts to 65 knots are already being experienced in Port Hedland and conditions there are likely to get slowly worse during Tuesday and into Wednesday.

Gales are occurring on the coast between Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek, with destructive winds extending from near Port Hedland to around Wallal. Gales may extend west to Karratha and begin to extend inland towards Marble Bar and Millstream on Wednesday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 90 knots are likely to develop in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Pardoo during Wednesday as Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty approaches the coast.

This is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in an extended period of destructive winds near the track, with rainfall that is heavier than that associated with a typical system. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center nears the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Mardie, and adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine and
Millstream

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara including Tom Price, Newman and Telfer.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #24
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY THREE (10U)
2:50 PM WST February 26 2013
=======================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty (957 hPa) located at 19.2S 119.1E or 135 km north northeast of Port Hedland and 290 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 3 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
55 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center in southern quadrants
140 NM from the center in northern quadrants

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty continues to move slowly towards the coast. The slow motion and large size of Rusty means that the destructive and very destructive winds will occur on the coast well before the center crosses the coast, and will extend some distance from the center. Wind gusts to 65 knots have already been experienced in Port Hedland and conditions there are likely to get slowly worse overnight and during Wednesday.

Gales are occurring on the coast between Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek, with destructive winds extending from near Port Hedland to around Wallal. Gales may extend west to Karratha and begin to extend inland towards Marble Bar and Millstream on Wednesday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 90 knots are likely to develop in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Pardoo during Wednesday as Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty approaches the coast.

This is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in an extended period of destructive winds near the track, with rainfall that is heavier than that associated with a typical system. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center nears the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Mardie, and adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine and
Millstream

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara including Tom Price, Newman and Telfer

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 19.5S 118.9E - 85 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 20.0S 118.8E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 22.2S 118.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 27.1S 118.3E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================
ADT at 0430UTC: 62 knots 10-min, CI 4.6
CIMSS AMSU: 0056UTC pass 76 knots 10-min
SATCON at 0230UTC: 72 knots 10-min mean

DVORAK: DT of 4.5 based on ragged eye in VIS and weak eye pattern in enhanced infrared in recent imagery, MET is in agreement and FT/CI is set at 4.5 Final intensity estimate is held at 75 knots 10-min mean.

CIMSS wind shear at 00UTC was 3 m/s ENE and conditions remain favorable for further intensification. The warm water is quite deep off the continental shelf and over the shelf it is warm through depth so mixing of cooler water is not expected to be a major impediment to development.

The system is slowly contracting but the storm radius and RMW are still larger than usual. Radar imagery and SSMIS imagery show a large and slightly ragged eye that has been slowly contracting as part of the intensification process. Rapid development is only likely once the eye has further contracted.

Slow southward motion towards the coast is likely in the short term. Overnight a mid-level ridge is expected to develop southwest of the system which may balance the flow sufficiently to arrest the southerly motion and lead to slow and erratic motion, possibly to the west, before the system crosses the coast. This increases the uncertainty of the crossing location and timing.

The size and translation speed of the system is likely to lead to larger than usual rainfall accumulations and the model guidance is in line with this leading to concerns of major flooding in the De Grey. Significant flooding also likely in the Fortescue and Pilbara coastal streams.

The slow motion also creates a greater chance that tides along the Pilbara coast will rise significantly above the predicted high tides on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 11U
2:57 PM WST February 26 2013
=========================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (997 hPa) located at 14.9S 97.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The low is reported as moving south southwest at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.9S 97.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 15.0S 98.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.8S 99.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 15.2S 101.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
Location based on exposed low level circulation center in animated visible imagery and 0106Z SSMI-S microwave image. Deep convection has persisted in the southwest sector, but has weakened slightly and is located around 1 degree from low level circulation center at 0430Z. CIMSS shear analysis at 26/00Z indicates 20 knots vertical wind shear over the system centre.

Dvorak analysis at 26/0430Z yields DT=2.0 based on a shear pattern. 24 hours trend is steady so MET=2.0 and PAT agrees. FT=2.0 and CI held at 2.5. ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B passes at 26/0300Z indicated an area of gales to the south of the system center, but missed the western quadrants. Gales are inferred to persist in the southwest sector associated with deep convection as indicated in earlier scatterometer data. SATCON intensity estimate is 39 knots at 00Z based mainly on AMSU data. Final intensity estimate kept below tropical cyclone intensity at 30 knots.

Recent movement continues slowly southwest, as the STR strengthens to the south and the monsoon trough drifts slowly south. The model consensus forecasts a turn to the east under the influence of the monsoonal westerly flow to the north, as the steering ridge weakens. A slow development rate is forecast, with tropical cyclone formation possible early Wednesday as the system moves closer to the upper ridge axis.

In the longer term, most models indicate a weakening trend after 36-48 hours as an approaching mid-level trough causes increased vertical wind shear and dry air is wrapped into the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #26
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY THREE (10U)
6:27 PM WST February 26 2013
=======================================

At 6:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty (957 hPa) located at 19.3S 119.1E or 125 km north northeast of Port Hedland and 285 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 2 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty continues to move slowly towards the coast. The slow motion and large size of Rusty means that the destructive and very destructive winds will occur on the coast well before the center crosses the coast, and will extend some distance from the center. Wind gusts to 60 knots have already been experienced in Port Hedland and conditions there are likely to get slowly worse overnight and during Wednesday.

Gales are occurring on the coast between Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek, with destructive winds extending from near Port Hedland to around Wallal. Gales may extend west to Karratha and begin to extend inland towards Marble Bar and Millstream on Wednesday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 90 knots are likely to develop in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Pardoo during Wednesday as Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty approaches the coast.

This is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in an extended period of destructive winds near the track, with rainfall that is heavier than that associated with a typical system. Widespread very heavy rainfall overnight and on Wednesday is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center nears the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Mardie including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier, and adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine and Millstream.

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara including Tom Price, Newman and Telfer

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #27
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY THREE (10U)
8:55 PM WST February 26 2013
=======================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty (957 hPa) located at 19.3S 119.1E or 125 km north northeast of Port Hedland and 285 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as stationary.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center in southern quadrants
120 NM from the center in northern quadrants

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty has been near stationary over the last few hours but is expected to resume a southerly track towards the Pilbara coast early Wednesday. The slow motion and large size of Rusty means that the destructive and very destructive winds will occur on the coast well before the center crosses the coast, and will extend some distance from the cent re. Wind gusts to 65 knots have already been experienced in Port Hedland and conditions there are likely to get slowly worse during Wednesday.

Gales are occurring on the coast between Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek, with destructive winds extending from near Port Hedland to around Wallal. Gales may extend west to Karratha and begin to extend inland towards Marble Bar and Millstream on Wednesday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 90 knots are likely to develop in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Pardoo during Wednesday as Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty approaches the coast.

This is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in an extended period of destructive winds near the track, with rainfall that is heavier than that associated with a typical system. Widespread very heavy rainfall overnight and on Wednesday is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center nears the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Mardie including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier, and adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine and Millstream

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for remaining central and eastern areas of the Pilbara including Tom Price, Newman, Telfer and adjacent Gascoyne district

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 19.5S 119.1E - 85 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 20.3S 119.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 23.3S 119.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 28.7S 119.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================
DVORAK: DT of 4.5 based on 3 hour average analysing an eye pattern [MG surround with a 0.5 correction subtracted at times for an elongated eye] in EIR. On the latest image MET is now 5.0 but FT/CI is biases to DT 4.5. Final intensity estimate is held at 75 knots 10-min mean.

CIMSS wind shear at 06UTC was 3 m/s east northeast and conditions remain favorable for further intensification. The warm water is quite deep off the continental shelf and over the shelf it is warm through depth so mixing of cooler water is not expected to be a major impediment to development. Intensification through landfall is therefore predicted with a decrease in RMW expected.

Over the last few hours the system has been almost stationary. This is expected to persist through until early Wednesday when slow southward motion towards the coast is likely to resume.

The size and translation speed of the system is likely to lead to larger than usual rainfall accumulations and the model guidance is in line with this leading to concerns of major flooding in the De Grey. Significant flooding also likely in the Fortescue and Pilbara coastal streams.

The slow motion also creates a greater chance that tides along the Pilbara coast will rise significantly above the predicted high tides on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #28
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY THREE (10U)
11:51 PM WST February 26 2013
=======================================

At 11:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty (953 hPa) located at 19.3S 119.1E or 125 km north northeast of Port Hedland and 285 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as stationary.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty has been near stationary over the last few hours but is expected to resume a southerly track towards the Pilbara coast during Wednesday. The slow motion and large size of Rusty means that the destructive and very destructive winds will occur on the coast well before the center crosses the coast, and will extend some distance from the center. Wind gusts to 65 knots have already been experienced in Port Hedland and conditions there are likely to get slowly worse during Wednesday.

Gales are occurring on the coast between Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek, with destructive winds extending from near Port Hedland to around Wallal. Gales may extend west to Karratha and begin to extend inland towards Marble Bar and Millstream later Wednesday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 90 knots are likely to develop in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Pardoo during Wednesday as Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty approaches the coast.

This is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in an extended period of destructive winds near the track, with rainfall that is heavier than that associated with a typical system. Widespread very heavy rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Mardie including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier, and adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine and Millstream

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for remaining central and eastern areas of the Pilbara including Tom Price, Newman, Telfer and adjacent parts of the Gascoyne
district

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #29
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY THREE (10U)
2:56 AM WST February 27 2013
=======================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty (953 hPa) located at 19.3S 119.1E or 125 km north northeast of Port Hedland and 285 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as stationary.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
110 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northern quadrants

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty has been near stationary over the last few hours but is expected to resume a southerly track towards the Pilbara coast during Wednesday. The slow motion and large size of Rusty means that the destructive and very destructive winds will occur on the coast well before the center crosses the coast, and will extend some distance from the center. Wind gusts to 65 knots have already been experienced in Port Hedland and conditions there are likely to get slowly worse during Wednesday.

Gales are occurring on the coast between Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek and may extend west to Karratha and inland towards Marble Bar during Wednesday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 90 knots are likely to develop in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Wallal during Wednesday as Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty approaches the coast.

This is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in an extended period of destructive winds near the track, with rainfall that is heavier than that associated with a typical system. Widespread very heavy rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Mardie including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier, and adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine, Millstream and Tom Price

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for remaining central and eastern areas of the Pilbara including Newman, Telfer and adjacent parts of the Gascoyne district

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 19.7S 119.1E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 20.7S 119.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 24.6S 119.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 30.0S 118.9E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================
DVORAK: DT of 5.0 based on 3 hour average analysing an eye pattern [LG surround] in enhanced infrared. MET and FT/CI is 5.0 with intensity estimate of 80 knots 10-min mean.

Shear is low and conditions remain favourable for further intensification. The warm water is quite deep off the continental shelf and over the shelf it is warm through depth so mixing of cooler water is not expected to be a major impediment to development. Intensification and a decrease in RMW during Wednesday prior to landfall is expected.

Over the last few hours the system has been almost stationary. This is expected to persist in the short term then slow general southward motion towards the coast is likely to resume.

The size and translation speed of the system is likely to lead to larger than usual rainfall accumulations and the model guidance is in line with this leading to concerns of major flooding in the De Grey. Significant flooding also likely in the Fortescue and Pilbara coastal streams.

The slow motion also creates a greater chance that tides along the Pilbara coast will rise significantly above the predicted high tide on Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 11U
2:18 AM WST February 27 2013
=========================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (998 hPa) located at 15.3S 98.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The low is reported as nearly stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.4S 98.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 15.4S 99.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 15.5S 100.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: xx xx - xx

Additional Information
==========================
Location based on a well exposed low level circulation center in animated Near-Infrared imagery as well as SSMI imagery. Overall, deep convection has weakened considerably in the past 24 hours, although some new development is occurring about 80nm from low level circulation center at 1630Z. Significant 20-30 knots vertical wind shear over the low level center continues to hinder development.

Dvorak analysis at 26/1630Z yields DT=1.5 based on a shear pattern. 24hr trend is weakening so MET and PAT agrees. FT=1.5 and CI held at 2.0. Ascat-A pass at 26/1500Z indicated an area of 30 knot winds to the north and southwest of the system center.

System is near stationary. The model consensus forecasts a slow eastwards movement under the influence of the monsoonal westerly flow to the north as the subtropical ridge to the south weakens.

The low is no longer expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #30
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY FOUR (10U)
5:36 AM WST February 27 2013
=======================================

At 5:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty (945 hPa) located at 19.3S 119.2E or 130 km north northeast of Port Hedland and 290 km east northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly stationary.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty has been near stationary overnight but is expected to resume a southerly track towards the Pilbara coast during the day. The slow motion and large size of Rusty means that the destructive and very destructive winds will occur on the coast well before the center crosses the coast, and will extend some distance from the center. Wind gusts to 65 knots have already been experienced in Port Hedland and conditions there are likely to get slowly worse during the day.

Gales are occurring on the coast between Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek and may extend west to Karratha and inland towards Marble Bar during today.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 90 knots are likely to develop in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Wallal during the day as Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty approaches the coast.

This is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in an extended period of destructive winds near the track, with rainfall that is heavier than that associated with a typical system. Widespread very heavy rainfall today and on Thursday is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Mardie including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier, and adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine, Millstream and Tom Price

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for remaining central and eastern areas of the Pilbara including Newman, Telfer and adjacent parts of the Gascoyne district

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #31
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY FOUR (10U)
8:50 AM WST February 27 2013
=======================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty (945 hPa) located at 19.3S 119.1E or 130 km north northeast of Port Hedland and 295 km east northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as stationary.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
110 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northern quadrants

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty has been near stationary this morning but is expected to resume a southerly track towards the Pilbara coast during the day. The slow motion and large size of Rusty means that the destructive and very destructive winds will occur on the coast well before the center crosses the coast, and will extend some distance from the center. Wind gusts to 65 knots have already been experienced in Port Hedland over the last 24 hours, and conditions there may get slowly worse during the day.

Gales are occurring on the coast between Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek and will extend inland towards Marble Bar during today, and may reach Nullagine overnight.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 90 knots are likely in coastal parts between Port Hedland and Wallal during the day as Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty approaches the coast.

This is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in an extended period of destructive winds near the track, with rainfall that is heavier than that associated with a typical system. Widespread very heavy rainfall today and on Thursday is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Mardie including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier, and adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine, Millstream and Tom Price.

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for remaining central and eastern areas of the Pilbara including Newman, Telfer and adjacent parts of the Gascoyne district

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 19.9S 119.5E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 21.0S 119.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 25.6S 119.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 31.4S 120.8E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================
CIMSS wind shear at 18 UTC was 2.8 m/s from 330 degrees

ADT 2130UTC position is poor, the spiral analysis has resulted in a poorer fix than forecast interpolation with ADT having recognised an eye pattern earlier but not in the last 5 images. 2130 CI is 5.3 with raw T numbers of around 4.4-4.5. CIMSS AMSU: 1330UTC pass 75 knots 10-min SATCON at 1300UTC: 75 knots 10-min mean No CIRA intensity estimates received since early on the 26th when it appeared to have a high bias.

DVORAK: DT of 5.5 based on an eye pattern in enhanced infrared averaged over recent imagery, MET is 5.0 and FT/CI is set at 5.5 Final intensity estimate is held at 90 knots 10-min mean.

Shear is low and conditions remain favourable for further intensification. The warm water is quite deep off the continental shelf and over the shelf it is warm through depth so mixing of cooler water is not expected to be a major impediment to development. Intensification and a decrease in RMW during Wednesday prior to landfall is expected.

Over the last few hours the system has been almost stationary. A slow general southward motion towards the coast is likely to resume during the day.

The size and translation speed of the system is likely to lead to larger than usual rainfall accumulations and the model guidance is in line with this, leading to concerns of major flooding in the De Grey. Significant flooding also likely in the Fortescue and Pilbara coastal streams.

The slow motion also creates a greater chance that tides along the Pilbara coast will rise significantly above the predicted high tide on Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #32
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY FOUR (10U)
11:54 AM WST February 27 2013
=======================================

At 11:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty (945 hPa) located at 19.5S 119.4E or 125 km northeast of Port Hedland and 190 km north of Marble Bar has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 3 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty has started to take a southeasterly track over the last few hours. During the afternoon it is expected to take a more southerly track as it moves towards the Pilbara coast.

Gales are occurring on the coast between Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek and will extend inland towards Marble Bar during today, and may reach Nullagine overnight.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 70 knots are occurring along the coast in the vicinity of De Grey and Pardoo, and could reach Marble Bar overnight.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 90 knots are likely in the vicinity of De Grey and Pardoo during the afternoon and evening as Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty approaches the coast.

Widespread very heavy rainfall today and on Thursday is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also possible in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

People on the coast between Wallal and De Grey are warned of the potential for a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the system approaches the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Dampier including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier, and adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine, Millstream, Tom Price, Telfer and Newman

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for remaining central and eastern areas of the Pilbara including Paraburdoo, Three Rivers and adjacent parts of the Gascoyne district and the Interior

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #33
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY THREE (10U)
2:55 PM WST February 27 2013
=======================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty (952 hPa) located at 19.8S 119.5E or 110 km east northeast of Port Hedland and 155 km north of Marble Bar has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 3 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
45 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM from the center in southern quadrants
85 NM from the center in northern quadrants

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty is crossing the coast to the east of De Grey. The center is expected to move over land late this afternoon. Port Hedland will escape Rusty's worst winds; which are occurring on the coast between De Grey and Pardoo. Wind gusts in excess of 90 knots are occurring in that area.

Gales are continuing in Port Hedland and extend east along the coast to Wallal. Gales will extend inland towards Marble Bar during this evening, and may reach Nullagine overnight.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 70 knots are occurring along the coast in the vicinity of De Grey and Pardoo, and could reach Marble Bar overnight.

Widespread very heavy rainfall overnight and on Thursday is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also possible in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

People on the coast between De Grey and Wallal are warned of the potential for a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE during this afternoon. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Whim Creek including Port Hedland and extending to adjacent inland areas of the
Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine, Millstream, Tom Price, Telfer and Newman

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for remaining central and eastern areas of the Pilbara including Paraburdoo, Three Rivers and adjacent parts of the Gascoyne district and the Interior

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 20.7S 119.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 22.2S 119.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 27.1S 120.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: xx xx - xx

Additional Information
=======================
CIMSS wind shear at 06 UTC was 2.3 m/s from 340 degrees

ADT 0430UTC CI is 4.6 with raw T numbers of around 3.8. Previous few analyses put the system over land so ADT was not available. No recent CIMSS AMSU, CIRA or SATCON.

DVORAK: DT of 4.5 based on an eye patterns in enhanced infrared and curved band in visible, averaged over recent imagery. MET is 4.5 and FT is set at 4.5. CI is at 5.0. Final intensity estimate has been lowered to 80 knots 10-min mean.

Over the last few hours the system has been moving in a south to southeasterly direction. Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty is weakening as it interacts with land.

The translation speed of the system is likely to lead to larger than usual rainfall accumulations and the model guidance is in line with this, leading to concerns of major flooding in the De Grey. Significant flooding is also possible in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams, though a strong gradient in rainfall is likely to the west of the track.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #34
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY THREE (10U)
6:01 PM WST February 27 2013
=======================================

At 5:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty (952 hPa) located at 20.0S 119.6E or be crossing the coast 110 km east northeast of Port Hedland and 130 km north of Marble Bar has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 5 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty crossed the coast at 5pm at Pardoo, 110 km east northeast of Port Hedland and will now move inland and gradually weaken. Wind gusts in excess of 90 knots are expected near the cyclone center this evening.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 70 knots should extend inland tonight reaching Marble Bar early on Thursday. Gales should extend further inland to Nullagine and possibly Newman and Telfer during Thursday before Rusty weakens below cyclone intensity overnight Thursday.

Winds are expected to gradually ease in Port Hedland this evening.

Widespread very heavy rainfall overnight and on Thursday is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also possible in the Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

People on the coast between De Grey and Wallal are warned of the potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE tonight. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Whim Creek including Port Hedland and inland areas of the eastern Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine, Newman and Telfer.

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for adjacent parts of the Interior and Gascoyne district including Three Rivers

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #35
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY THREE (10U)
9:05 PM WST February 27 2013
=======================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty (962 hPa) located at 20.2S 119.8E or inland from the coast 125 km east of Port Hedland and 110 km north of Marble Bar has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty crossed the coast at 5pm at Pardoo, 110 km east northeast of Port Hedland and is now moving inland and will gradually weaken. Wind gusts in excess of 90 knots are expected near the cyclone center tonight.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 70 knots should extend inland tonight reaching Marble Bar early on Thursday. Gales should extend further inland to Nullagine early tomorrow morning and possibly to Newman and Telfer during Thursday before Rusty weakens below cyclone intensity overnight Thursday.

Winds are expected to gradually ease in Port Hedland overnight.

Widespread very heavy rainfall overnight and on Thursday is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also possible in the Upper Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Port Hedland and inland areas of the eastern Pilbara, northeastern Gascoyne and
adjacent parts of the Interior, including Marble Bar, Nullagine, Newman, Three Rivers and Telfer.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 21.5S 119.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 23.6S 120.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 29.2S 119.8E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: xx xx - xx

Additional Information
=======================
Final intensity estimate has been lowered to 70 knots 10-min mean, based on a combination of standard weakening rates over land and Dvorak estimates [even though system now overland]. DVORAK: DT of 4.0 based on an embedded centre in EIR. MET is 4.5 and FT is set at 4.5. CI is at 4.5.

Over the last few hours the system has been moving in a south to southeasterly direction. Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty is likely to weaken as it passes over land, decreasing below category 3 around midnight, and gradually reducing intensity throughout Thursday to below cyclone intensity overnight Thursday.

The translation speed of the system is likely to lead to larger than usual rainfall accumulations and the model guidance is in line with this, leading to concerns of major flooding in the De Grey. Significant flooding is also possible in the Upper Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams, though a strong gradient in rainfall is likely to the west of the track.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #36
TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY TWO (10U)
11:57 PM WST February 27 2013
=======================================

At 11:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Rusty (970 hPa) located at 20.4S 121.0E or inland from the coast 90 km north northeast of Marble Bar and 145 km east of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 5 knots.

After crossing the coast at 5pm near Pardoo east of Port Hedland, Tropical Cyclone Rusty is now moving inland over the eastern Pilbara.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 70 knots are expected near the centre this morning possibly affecting Marble Bar prior to sunrise. Gales should extend to Nullagine this morning and possibly to Newman during the afternoon before Rusty weakens below cyclone intensity overnight.

Widespread very heavy rainfall today is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also possible in the Upper Fortescue catchment and in remaining east Pilbara coastal streams.

Tides between Pardoo and Wallal are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark in the next few hours with flooding of low lying areas possible.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Port Hedland and inland areas of the eastern Pilbara, northeastern Gascoyne and
adjacent parts of the Interior, including Marble Bar, Nullagine, Newman and Telfer.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #37
TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY TWO (10U)
2:45 AM WST February 28 2013
=======================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Rusty (974 hPa) located at 20.6S 120.1E or inland from the coast 75 km north northeast of Marble Bar and 160 km east southeast of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 5 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
5 NM from the center in northern quadrant
25 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center in northern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Rusty continues to weaken as it moves southwards over the east Pilbara.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 70 knots are expected near the center this morning. Gales are currently being experienced in Marble Bar and should extend to Nullagine this morning and possibly to Newman during the afternoon before Rusty weakens below cyclone intensity this evening.

Widespread very heavy rainfall today is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also possible in the Upper Fortescue catchment and in remaining east Pilbara coastal streams.

Tides between Pardoo and Wallal are likely to be above the normal high tide for the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Wallal to Port Hedland and inland areas of the eastern Pilbara, northeastern Gascoyne and adjacent parts of the Interior, including Marble Bar, Nullagine and Newman

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 22.3S 120.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 24.4S 119.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 29.9S 120.1E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: xx xx - xx

Additional Information
=======================
Final intensity estimate has been lowered to 55 knots 10-min mean, based on a combination of standard weakening rates over land and Dvorak estimates [even though system now over land] with CI held at 4.0.

Over the last few hours the system has been moving in a south to southeasterly direction. Tropical Cyclone Rusty will continue to weaken as it moves further inland today, expected to be below to below cyclone intensity during the evening.

Heavy rain has become confined to areas south of the low level circulation center with strongest winds also expected to be on the southern side under the deeper convection.

Major flooding in the De Grey remains a concern. Significant flooding is also possible in the Upper Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams, though a strong gradient in rainfall is likely to the west of the track.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #38
TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY TWO (10U)
5:58 AM WST February 28 2013
=======================================

At 5:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Rusty (978 hPa) located at 20.9S 120.3E or inland from the coast 65 km east northeast of Marble Bar and 190 km east southeast of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 6 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty continues to weaken as it moves southwards over the east Pilbara.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 70 knots are possible near the center though these maximum winds will ease during the day. Gales may extend to Nullagine this morning and possibly to Newman during the afternoon before Rusty weakens below cyclone intensity later today.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Inland areas of the eastern Pilbara, northeastern Gascoyne and adjacent parts of the Interior, including Marble Bar, Nullagine and Newman

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #39
TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY ONE (10U)
8:52 AM WST February 28 2013
=======================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Rusty (982 hPa) located at 21.1S 120.4E or 65 km east of Marble Bar and 260 km north northeast of Newman has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
10 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southern quadrants

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Tropical Cyclone Rusty continues to weaken as it moves in a south to southeasterly direction over the east Pilbara. Rusty is expected to weaken below cyclone strength during the day.

DAMAGING winds with gusts up to 65 knots are possible near the center, though these maximum winds will ease during the day. Gales may extend to Nullagine this morning and possibly to Newman during the afternoon before Rusty weakens below cyclone intensity.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for Inland areas of the eastern Pilbara, northeastern Gascoyne and adjacent parts of the Interior, including Nullagine and Newman.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 23.4S 120.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 25.9S 120.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 31.0S 121.5E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: xx xx - xx

Additional Information
=======================
Final intensity estimate has been lowered to 45 knots 10-min mean wind based on a standard weakening rate over land.

Over the last few hours the system has been moving in a south to southeasterly direction. Tropical Cyclone Rusty will continue to weaken as it moves further inland today and is expected to be below cyclone intensity during Thursday afternoon.

Heavy rain has become confined to areas south of the low level circulation center with strongest winds also expected to be on the southern side under the deeper convection.

Major flooding in the De Grey remains a concern. Significant flooding is also possible in the Upper Fortescue catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams, though a strong gradient in rainfall is likely to the west of the track.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #40
TROPICAL CYCLONE RUSTY, CATEGORY ONE (10U)
11:42 AM WST February 28 2013
=======================================

At 11:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Rusty (987 hPa) located at 21.7S 120.5E or 100 km southeast of Marble Bar and 200 km north northeast of Newman has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 8 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty continues to weaken as it moves in a south to southeasterly direction over the inland east Pilbara. Rusty is expected to weaken below cyclone strength during Thursday afternoon.

DAMAGING winds with gusts up to 50 knots are possible. Gales may affect Nullagine until mid afternoon, and possibly reach Newman before Rusty weakens below cyclone intensity.

MAJOR FLOODING is occuring in the De Grey catchment, and heavy rainfall is likely to continue.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
The Cyclone WARNING for Marble Bar has been cancelled

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #41
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER RUSTY (10U)
2:09 PM WST February 28 2013
=======================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low, Former Rusty (991 hPa) located at 22.0S 120.6E or 125 km southeast of Marble Bar and 175 km north northeast of Newman has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south southeast at 9 knots.

Ex Tropical Cyclone Rusty has weakened below cyclone strength.

No Further Cyclone Advices are expected to be issued for this system.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
18:00 PM FST February 28 2013
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 16F (1003 hPa) located at 13.0S 160.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multi-spectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization remains poor. System lies northwest of upper level equatorward jet entrance in a low to moderate sheared environment. Diffluence aloft provides moderate divergence over teh system. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it southeastward with slight intensification.

Tropical cyclone formation potential for 16F is Low to Moderate in the next 48 hours.