November 1 2012 - December 31 2012

By: HadesGodWyvern , 11:25 PM GMT on October 31, 2012

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Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon 2012 season
=================================================
Information used for this blog are from

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

-----------------
Northwestern Pacific
-----------------
Japan Meteorological Agency: Tokyo
Hong Kong Observatory: China
Typhoon 2000: Philippines
PAGASA: Manila, Philippines

------------------
Northern Indian Ocean
--------------------
India Meteorological Department: New Delphi
Thailand Meteorological Department

------------------------
Northeastern Pacific Ocean
------------------------
National Hurricane Center: Miami, FL

-------------------------
Central Northeastern Pacific
----------------------------
Central Pacific Hurricane Center: Honolulu, Hawaii

---------------------------
Southern Indian Ocean
---------------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta: Indonesia
Mauritius Meteorological Service
Reunion Regional Specialized Meteorological Center

--------------------------
Southern Pacific Ocean
-----------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Fiji Meteorological Services: Nadi
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center: Wellington

=========================================

=======================
Northeast Pacific Ocean
========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Miami National Hurricane Center

National Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

October
EP172012.Rosa - 1000 hPa

-------------------------------------------------
=======================
North Central Pacific Ocean
========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Honolulu National Hurricane Center

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================



-------------------------------------------------

========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

November
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26 - 1004 hPa
T201224.Bopha/Pablo - 930 hPa

December
T201225.Wukong/Quinta - 998 hPa
-------------------------------------------------
========================
North Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

October
BOB02-2012.Nilam - 992 hPa

November
BOB03-2012.NONAME - 1002 hPa

December
ARB02-2012.NONAME - 1002 hPa

-------------------------------------------------
Southwestern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Seychelles Meteorological Services
Mauritius Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

November
02R.NONAME - 1004 hPa
03R.Boldwin - 987 hPa

December
04R.Claudia - 950 hPa
05R.NONAME - 995 hPa

------------------------------------------------

Southeastern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
Bureau Of Meteorology: Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Bureau of Meteorology: Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning center Jakarta

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

December
04U.MITCHELL - 990 hPa

-------------------------------------------------
Southwestern Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
Bureau Of Meteorology: Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Bureau Of Meteorology: Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Papua New Guinea

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

December
03U.FREDA - 980 hPa (within AOR)

-------------------------------------------------
Southwestern Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
Fiji Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

November
01F.NONAME - 991 hPa
02F.NONAME - 1001 hPa

December
03F.NONAME - 997 hPa
04F.Evan - 943 hPa
05F/03U.FREDA - 940 hPa (within AOR)
06F.NONAME - 1005 hPa

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Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #21
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
5:00 PM PhST December 8 2012
==============================

Typhoon "PABLO" has maintained its strength and is now threatening the Ilocos provinces and La Union area

At 4:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Pablo [972 hPa] located at 17.5°N 118.3°E or 230 km west of Sinait, Ilocos Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots gusting up to 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast 9 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #2
-----------------

Luzon Region
--------------
1. Ilocos Norte
2. Ilocos Sur
3. La Union

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon region
-------------
1. Cagayan
2. Calayan grp. of Is.
3. Babuyan grp. of Is.
4. Batanes grp. of Is.
5. Abra
6. Apayao
7. Kalinga
8. Mt. Province
9. Benguet
10. Pangasinan
11. Zambales

Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern Luzon and the western seaboards of central and southern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
CYCLONE TROPICAL CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
10:30 AM RET December 8 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Claudia (968 hPa) located at 14.2S 75.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 35 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 55 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 60 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 14.7S 74.2E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical
48 HRS: 16.7S 74.3E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical
72 HRS: 20.3S 73.3E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================
2354 PM UTC SMISS f16 microwave picture shows an irregular eye with a degraded southern edge. Intensity has been probably slightly over-estimated at 0:00 AM UTC. Current intensity reflects this correction. For the latest hours, the eye is cleaner and has warmed. The 6 hours average DT is 4.5+. Winds radius has been recalibrated thanks to 0357 AM UTC ASCAT path.

The system is slowly moving southwestward as steering mid-tropospheric flow becomes weak. In this context, Claudia should continue on a slow west southwestward drift today. Erratic motion is possible within this time frame. Numerical weather prediction models differ a few within the next 12-24 hours. Saturday night, the mid level ridge is expected to shift to the east and northeast of Caudia and strengthen, producing a northerly steering flow. System is therefore expected to track southward.

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being favorable until Sunday or very favorable due to two outflow channels on Saturday. This schedule should allow the system to regularly intensify. However, slow motion could restrict this intensification.

On and after Monday, system is expected to track over marginal heat oceanic content associated with stronger vertical wind shear. A weakening trend should start by that time. Extra-tropical process is expected to start by late Tuesday.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #101
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
15:00 PM JST December 8 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (955 hPa) located at 17.5N 117.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.1N 119.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 16.7N 119.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 15.4N 118.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #100
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
12:00 PM JST December 8 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (950 hPa) located at 17.2N 117.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.9N 118.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
485 HRS: 17.0N 118.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
69 HRS: 15.6N 118.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #20
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
11:00 AM PhST December 8 2012
==============================

Typhoon "PABLO" has maintained its strength and is now moving closer to western section of northern and central Luzon

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Pablo [972 hPa] located at 17.0°N 117.1°E or 320 km northwest of Dagupan City has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots gusting up to 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast 4 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon region
-------------
1. Ilocos Sur
2. La Union
3. Pangasinan
4. Zambales

Additional Information
========================
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern and central Luzon and the western seaboard of southern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 p.m. today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #99
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
9:00 AM JST December 8 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (950 hPa) located at 16.8N 116.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.7N 118.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 17.0N 118.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 15.6N 118.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
CYCLONE TROPICAL CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
4:30 AM RET December 8 2012
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Claudia (968 hPa) located at 14.2S 75.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center extending up to 50 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the western semi-circle and up to 75 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the western semi-circle and up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 14.5S 73.9E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical
48 HRS: 15.8S 74.1E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical
72 HRS: 19.1S 73.8E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================
Vertical winds hear constraint is relaxing (refer to CIMMS data) and Claudia keeps on rapidly strengthening (+1t/06h). It shows again since 1800 PM UTC a ragged eye on meteosat 7 infrared imagery. The mentioned final T-number is an average over the past 6 hours.

The system has slow down its current west southwestwards motion as the mid-level ridge is collapsing to its south, steering flow becomes weak. In this context, the system should continue on a slow westwards drift today. Erratic motion is possible within this time frame. Saturday night, the mid level ridge is expected to shift to the east and northeast of Claudia and strengthen, producing a northerly steering flow. System is therefore expected to track southwards under the steering influence of this aforementioned mid level ridge. A south southeastwards trend, suggested by some models, is now reflected in the current forecast.

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being favorable until Sunday or very favorable due to two outflow channels on Saturday. This schedule should allow the system to regularly intensify. Latest objective numerical guidance (1200 PM UTC run of ALADIN-REUNION and STIPS suite of 1800 PM UTC) still suggest a max intensity in the 70-80 knots range Sunday or Sunday night. The present forecast is just above this estimation and remains in line with the previous forecast. On and after Monday, system is expected to track over marginal heat oceanic content associated with stronger vertical wind shear. A weakening trend should start by that time. Extratropical process is expected to start by late Tuesday.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #98
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
6:00 AM JST December 8 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In South China Sea

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (945 hPa) located at 16.5N 116.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.6N 117.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
45 HRS: 17.0N 117.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
69 HRS: 15.9N 117.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #97
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
3:00 AM JST December 8 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (945 hPa) located at 16.1N 116.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.5N 117.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 17.0N 117.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 15.9N 117.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
22:30 PM RET December 7 2012
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Claudia (982 hPa) located at 14.3S 75.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 35 NM in the western semi-circle and the southeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
35 NM radius from the center, extending up to 55 NM in the western semi-circle and up to 70 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the western semi-circle and up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 14.5S 74.5E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical
48 HRS: 15.7S 75.0E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical
72 HRS: 18.9S 75.3E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================
Despite a still existing north-easterly wind shear constraint (refer to CIMMS data) and an upper level outflow restricted in the north-eastern semi-circle(infrared water vapor meteosat7 imagery) Claudia keeps on rapidly strengthening (+1t/12h). It shows now since 1330 PM UTC a ragged eye on infrared imagery with a weakness in the southeastern quadrant (refer to SSMIS F18 1501 AM UTC). Since 1630 PM UTC eye is however cooling and temporarily disappearing until 1730 PM UTC on infrared imagery. The mentioned final t-number is an average over the past 6 hours. Near gale force winds 30 kt extensions has been recalibrated in the eastern semi-circle thanks to the partial ASCAT 1649 PM UTC swath.

The system has slow down its current west southwestwards motion as the mid-level ridge is collapsing to its south. Steering flow becomes weak. In this context, the system should continue on a slow westwards drift tonight and tomorrow. Erratic motion is possible within this time frame. Saturday afternoon or Saturday night, the mid level ridge is expected to shift to the east and northeast of Claudia and strengthen, producing a northerly steering flow. System is therefore expected to track southwards under the steering influence of this aforementioned mid level ridge. A south southeastwards trend, suggested by some models, is now reflected in the current forecast. On this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being favorable until Sunday or very favorable due to two outflow channels on Saturday. This schedule should allow the system to regularly intensify.

Latest objective numerical guidance (0:00 AM UTC run of ALADIN-Reunion and STIPS suite of 6:00 AM UTC) still suggest a max intensity in the 70-80 knots range Sunday or Sunday night. The present forecast is just above this estimation and remains in line with the previous forecast. On and after Monday, system is expected to track over marginal heat oceanic content associated with stronger vertical wind shear a weakening trend should start by that time . Extratropical process is expected to start by late tuesday.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
251. HadesGodWyvern
3:53 PM GMT on December 07, 2012
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #19
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
11:00 PM PhST December 7 2012
==============================

Typhoon "PABLO" has intensified as it moves north northeastward

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Pablo [972 hPa] located at 15.7°N 116.0°E or 390 km west of Iba, Zambales has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots gusting up to 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest 4 knots.

Additional Information
========================
Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern and central Luzon and the western seaboard of southern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
250. HadesGodWyvern
3:49 PM GMT on December 07, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #95
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
21:00 PM JST December 7 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (945 hPa) located at 15.4N 116.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.3N 117.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 17.1N 117.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 16.3N 117.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
249. HadesGodWyvern
3:46 PM GMT on December 07, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
16:30 PM RET December 7 2012
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Claudia (992 hPa) located at 14.1S 75.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 65 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 80 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 14.3S 74.6E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical
48 HRS: 15.2S 74.7E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical
72 HRS: 18.0S 74.9E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================
The system keeps on strengthening. SSMI of 1037 AM UTC depicts a low level eye pattern that may anticipate a potential rapid intensification. Within the last 2 hours, deep convection has built all around the center and a hot spot i seen on infrared imagery. Latest Dvorak estimates from SAB and PGTW are still at 40 knots. But considering all above, current intensity is raised at 45 knots and given the recent evolution, the severe tropical storm level should be reached shortly.

The system has slow down its current west southwestwards motion as the mid-level ridge is collapsing to its south. Steering flow becomes weak. In this context, the system should continue on a slow westwards drift tonight and tomorrow. Erratic motion is possible within this time frame. Saturday afternoon or Saturday night, the mid level ridge is expected to shift to the east and northeast of Claudia and strengthen, producing a northerly steering flow. System is therefore expected to track southwards under the steering influence of this aforementioned mid level ridge. A south southeastwards trend, suggested by some models, is now reflected in the current forecast.

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being favorable until Sunday or very favorable due to two outflow channels on Saturday. This schedule should allow the system to regularly intensify and to reach tropical cyclone stage tomorrow. Latest objective numerical guidance (0:00 AM UTC run of ALADIN-REUNION and STIPS suite of 6:00 AM UTC) still suggest a max intensity in the 70-80 knots range Sunday or Sunday night. The present forecast is just above this estimation and remains in line with the previous forecast. On and after Monday, system is expected to track over marginal heat oceanic content associated with stronger vertical wind shear a weakening trend should start by that time. Extratropical process is expected to start by late tuesday.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
248. HadesGodWyvern
9:51 AM GMT on December 07, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #94
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
18:00 PM JST December 7 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (960 hPa) located at 15.1N 116.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.7N 116.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
45 HRS: 16.8N 116.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
69 HRS: 16.7N 117.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
247. HadesGodWyvern
6:54 AM GMT on December 07, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
10:30 AM RET December 7 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Claudia (996 hPa) located at 14.0S 75.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 65 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 75 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 14.2S 74.6E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 15.0S 74.6E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical
72 HRS: 16.8S 74.6E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================
The system has intensified since the end of the night. Currently, it shows a curved band pattern on visible imagery at 0.7 on spiral log. Latest available subjective intensity estimates (SAB at 0530 AM UTC, PGTW at 0230 AM UTC) give a VMAX ranging from 30-40 knots. ADT, that better pinpoint the center since 0230 AM UTC, has a 3 hourly mean T number at 2.9. Considering all above, final intensity is set at 40 knots.

Under the steering influence of the low to mid levels subtropical ridge, system continues to track globally west southwestwards today. Tomorrow, steering flow is expected to be weak and system is therefore expected to slow down. Saturday afternoon or Saturday night, the mid level ridge is expected to shift eastwards and strengthen, producing a northerly steering flow. System is therefore expected to track southwards under the steering influence of this aforementioned mid level ridge.

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being favorable until Sunday or very favorable due to two outflow channels on Saturday. This schedule should allow the system to regularly intensify and to reach tropical cyclone stage within the next 36 hours or so. Latest objective numerical guidance (0:00 AM UTC run of ALADIN-REUNION and STIPS suite of 0:00 AM UTC) suggest a max intensity in the 70-80 knots range Sunday night. The present forecast is just above this estimation and remains in line with the previous forecast. On and after Monday, system is expected to track over marginal heat oceanic content associated with stronger vertical wind shear a weakening trend should start by that time . At the end of the forecast period (Tuesday -Wednesday), the system should begin its extra-tropicalization.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
246. HadesGodWyvern
6:47 AM GMT on December 07, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #93
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
15:00 PM JST December 7 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (970 hPa) located at 14.6N 115.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.2N 116.2E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 16.8N 116.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 16.7N 117.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
245. HadesGodWyvern
4:03 AM GMT on December 07, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #92
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
12:00 PM JST December 7 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Bopha (980 hPa) located at 14.2N 115.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.0N 116.0E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
45 HRS: 16.1N 116.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
69 HRS: 16.1N 117.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
244. HadesGodWyvern
3:28 AM GMT on December 07, 2012
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #18
TROPICAL STORM PABLO (BOPHA)
11:00 AM PhST December 7 2012
==============================

Tropical Storm "PABLO" has maintained its strength and continues to move north northwestward slowly

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Pablo [980 hPa] located at 14.0°N 115.6°E or 540 km west of Ambulong, Batangas has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots gusting up to 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest 4 knots.

Additional Information
========================
Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern and central Luzon and the western seaboard of southern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
243. HadesGodWyvern
12:52 AM GMT on December 07, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #91
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
9:00 AM JST December 7 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Bopha (980 hPa) located at 13.7N 115.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.6N 115.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 16.1N 116.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 16.1N 117.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
242. HadesGodWyvern
12:50 AM GMT on December 07, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 04-20122013
4:30 AM RET December 7 2012
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 13.6S 76.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
70 NM radius from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 13.9S 75.0E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 14.3S 74.6E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical
72 HRS: 16.0S 74.6E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================
A good low level inflow is already present on its both sides, taking advantage of a weakening northeasterly vertical wind shear during the very last hours, deep convective activity has consolidated around the center. The curved banding remain discontinued

Under the steering influence of the low to mid levels subtropical ridge, system is expected to track globally west southwestwards on Thursday and Friday. On Saturday, steering flow is expected to be weak and system is therefore expected to slow down. Then on and after Sunday, the mid level ridge is expected to shift eastwards and strengthen, producing a northerly steering flow. System is therefore expected to track southwards under the steering influence of this aforementioned mid level ridge.

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being favorable until Sunday or very favorable due to two outflow channels on Saturday. This schedule should allow the system to regularly intensify and to reach tropical cyclone stage on Saturday.

On and after Monday, system is expected to track over marginal heat oceanic content and north-westerly vertical wind shear is expected to regularly strengthen. System should therefore begin its extra-tropicalization
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
241. HadesGodWyvern
9:48 PM GMT on December 06, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #90
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
6:00 AM JST December 7 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In South China Sea

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Bopha (980 hPa) located at 13.5N 115.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.2N 115.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
45 HRS: 15.4N 115.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
69 HRS: 15.5N 116.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
240. HadesGodWyvern
7:25 PM GMT on December 06, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #89
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
3:00 AM JST December 7 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Bopha (980 hPa) located at 13.2N 115.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 14.9N 115.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 15.4N 115.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 15.5N 116.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
239. HadesGodWyvern
6:33 PM GMT on December 06, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 04-20122013
22:30 PM RET December 6 2012
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 13.3S 76.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
60 NM radius from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 13.7S 74.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 13.8S 73.4E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical
72 HRS: 14.7S 73.2E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================
A good low level inflow is already present on its both sides, taking advantage of a weakening northeasterly vertical wind shear during the very last hours, deep convective activity has consolidated around the center.

Under the steering influence of the low to mid levels subtropical ridge, system is expected to track globally west southwestwards on Thursday and Friday. On Saturday, steering flow is expected to be weak and system is therefore expected to slow down. Then on and after Sunday, the mid level ridge is expected to shift eastwards and strengthen, producing a northerly steering flow. System is therefore expected to track southwards under the steering influence of this aforementioned mid level ridge.

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being favorable until Sunday. This schedule should allow the system to regularly intensify and to reach tropical cyclone stage on Saturday.

On and after Monday, system is expected to track over marginal heat oceanic content and northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to regularly strengthen. System should therefore begin its extra-tropicalization.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
238. HadesGodWyvern
5:22 PM GMT on December 06, 2012
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #17
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
11:00 PM PhST December 6 2012
==============================

Typhoon "PABLO" has maintained its strength and continues to move away from the country

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Pablo [976 hPa] located at 12.6°N 116.2°E or 410 km west of Coron, Palawan has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots gusting up to 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest slowly.

Additional Information
========================
Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern and central Luzon and the eastern seaboard of aouthern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
237. HadesGodWyvern
5:19 PM GMT on December 06, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #87
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
21:00 PM JST December 6 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (975 hPa) located at 12.6N 116.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 14.4N 115.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 15.5N 115.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 15.6N 115.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
236. HadesGodWyvern
5:16 PM GMT on December 06, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 04-20122013
16:30 PM RET December 6 2012
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (998 hPa) located at 13.0S 77.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
60 NM radius from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 13.8S 73.6E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 13.9S 72.5E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 14.6S 72.4E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================
Taking advantage of a weakening northeasterly vertical wind shear and a good low level inflow on its both sides, deep convective activity has consolidated.

System shows an irregular central dense overcast pattern (1.2 to 1.4 dg diameter) since 0600 AM UTC on meteosat7 visible channel.

Under the steering influence of the low to mid levels subtropical ridge, system is expected to track globally west-south-westwards on Thursday and Friday. On Saturday, steering flow is expected to be weak and system is therefore expected to slow down. Then on and after Sunday, the mid level ridge is expected to shift eastwards and to produce a northerly steering flow. System is therefore expected to track southwards under the steering influence of this aforementioned mid level ridge.

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being favorable until Sunday late. This schedule should allow the system to regularly intensify and to reach tropical cyclone stage on Saturday late and maybe intense tropical cyclone stage on Sunday late.

On and after Monday, system is expected to track over marginal heat oceanic content and northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to regularly strengthen. System should therefore begin its extratropicalization.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
235. HadesGodWyvern
10:26 AM GMT on December 06, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #86
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
18:00 PM JST December 6 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (975 hPa) located at 12.4N 116.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 14.2N 115.4E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
45 HRS: 15.2N 115.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
69 HRS: 15.7N 115.4E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
234. HadesGodWyvern
6:51 AM GMT on December 06, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #85
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
15:00 PM JST December 6 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (975 hPa) located at 12.3N 116.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 14.2N 115.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 15.2N 115.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 15.7N 115.4E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
233. HadesGodWyvern
6:44 AM GMT on December 06, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 04-20122013
10:30 AM RET December 6 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1000 hPa) located at 12.9S 78.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south southwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 14.1S 73.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 14.2S 72.5E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 15.0S 72.5E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================
Within last night, deep convective activity has consolidated near the center.

ASCAT 0437 AM UTC swath reveals a clockwise circulation with weak winds near the center at about 20-25kt. TRMM 37ghz 0402 AM UTC shows an ill defined low level circulation. On the northwestern edge off the upper level ridge, system is still undergoing a northeasterly vertical wind shear constraint that is expected to relax today.

Under the steering influence of the low to mid levels subtropical ridge, system is expected to track globally west southwestwards on Thursday and Friday. On Saturday, steering flow is expected to be weak and system is therefore expected to slow down. Then on and after Sunday, the mid level ridge is expected to shift eastwards and to produce a northerly steering flow.

System is therefore expected to track southwards under the steering influence of this aforementioned mid level ridge.
On this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being favorable until Sunday late. This schedule should allow the system to regularly intensify and to reach tropical cyclone stage on Saturday and maybe intense tropical cyclone stage on Sunday.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
232. HadesGodWyvern
3:46 AM GMT on December 06, 2012
Quoting barbamz:
Thanks for all the informations through the year from the east of us, HDW. It's much appreciated.


not a problem at all. =)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
231. HadesGodWyvern
3:46 AM GMT on December 06, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #84
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
12:00 PM JST December 6 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (975 hPa) located at 12.3N 116.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 14.0N 115.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
45 HRS: 14.5N 114.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
69 HRS: 15.0N 114.8E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
230. HadesGodWyvern
3:27 AM GMT on December 06, 2012
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #16
TROPICAL STORM PABLO (BOPHA)
11:00 AM PhST December 6 2012
==============================

"PABLO" has slowed down as it continues to move away from the country

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Pablo [978 hPa] located at 12.4°N 116.5°E or 380 km west of Coron, Palawan has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots gusting up to 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 4 knots.

Additional Information
========================

All Public Storm Warning Signals are now lowered..

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-18 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern and central Luzon and the eastern seaboard of southern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
229. HadesGodWyvern
2:13 AM GMT on December 06, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #83
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
9:00 AM JST December 6 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (975 hPa) located at 12.0N 116.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 13.6N 115.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 14.5N 114.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 15.0N 114.8E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
228. barbamz
9:57 PM GMT on December 05, 2012
Thanks for all the informations through the year from the east of us, HDW. It's much appreciated.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 56 Comments: 6082
227. HadesGodWyvern
9:53 PM GMT on December 05, 2012
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #15
TROPICAL STORM PABLO (BOPHA)
5:00 AM PhST December 6 2012
==============================

"PABLO" has slightly weakened and has accelerated as it moves away from the country

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Pablo [978 hPa] located at 12.4°N 116.8°E or 350 km west of Coron, Palawan has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots gusting up to 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #1
----------

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Calamian Group of Island

Additional Information
========================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-18 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 350 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon and the eastern seaboard of southern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
226. HadesGodWyvern
9:49 PM GMT on December 05, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #82
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
6:00 AM JST December 6 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (975 hPa) located at 11.9N 116.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 13.1N 114.9E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
45 HRS: 13.5N 114.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
69 HRS: 14.1N 113.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
225. HadesGodWyvern
8:12 PM GMT on December 05, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #81
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
3:00 AM JST December 6 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (975 hPa) located at 11.6N 117.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 12.9N 115.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 13.5N 114.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 14.1N 113.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
224. HadesGodWyvern
4:18 PM GMT on December 05, 2012
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #14
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
11:00 PM PhST December 5 2012
==============================

Typhoon "PABLO" has maintained its strength and continues to move west northwestward slowly

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Pablo [976 hPa] located at 11.6°N 118.0°E or 180 km northwest of Roxas, northern Palawan has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots gusting up to 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 4 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #3
-----------

Luzon Region
-----------
1. Northern Palawan
2. Calamian Group of Islands

Signal Warning #2
-----------

Luzon Region
-----------
1. Rest of Palawan

Signal Warning #1
----------

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Occidental Mindoro

Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-18 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #3 and signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this typhoon.

Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of Luzon and western Visayas.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 a.m. tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
223. HadesGodWyvern
2:04 PM GMT on December 05, 2012
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET December 5 2012
=================================

The low level circulation center is located near 11.8S 81.9E at 1000 AM UTC, completely exposed East of the main convective activity, due to a strong easterly vertical wind shear.

Mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1001 hPa (buoy number 53006), maximum winds at 10-15 knots near the center, reaching 20 knots far from the center northward in the monsoon flow and reaching 25 knots locally 30 knots southward due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressure. The low level circulation center is moving west southwestward at about 8 knots.

Lower levels environmental conditions are favorable, system being well supplied on both faces, equatorward and poleward. Energetic oceanic content is favorable too. In the upper levels, the diffluent Southeasterly to Easterly wind shear is still strong (30 knots according to CIMSS data), system being located North of an upper tropospheric ridge.

The easterly to northeasterly upper level wind shear is forecast to remain moderate to strong until
Thursday, on the northwestern edge of the upper level ridge, and should weaken sharply beyond. But
On and after tonight, system should deepen slightly with the lowering of the relative wind shear . It
should intensify more rapidly beyond Thursday.

No other suspect area over the basin.

For the next 24 hours, potential for the development of a tropical depression is moderate and become good beyond.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
222. HadesGodWyvern
1:59 PM GMT on December 05, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #79
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
21:00 PM JST December 5 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (975 hPa) located at 11.0N 118.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 12.1N 115.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 13.0N 114.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 13.8N 113.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
221. HadesGodWyvern
9:48 AM GMT on December 05, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #78
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
18:00 PM JST December 5 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (975 hPa) located at 10.8N 118.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 12.0N 115.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
45 HRS: 13.0N 114.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
69 HRS: 13.8N 113.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
220. HadesGodWyvern
9:46 AM GMT on December 05, 2012
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #13
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
5:00 PM PhST December 5 2012
==============================

Typhoon "PABLO" has maintained its strength as it moves in a west northwest direction

At 4:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Pablo [976 hPa] located at 11.2°N 118.7°E or 110 km northwest of Roxas, northern Palawan has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots gusting up to 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #3
-----------

Luzon Region
-----------
1. Northern Palawan
2. Calamian Group of Islands

Signal Warning #2
-----------

Luzon Region
-----------
1. Rest of Palawan

Signal Warning #1
----------

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Occidental Mindoro

Additional Information
========================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-18 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #3 and signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this typhoon.

Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of Luzon and western Visayas.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
219. HadesGodWyvern
7:28 AM GMT on December 05, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #77
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
15:00 PM JST December 5 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (975 hPa) located at 10.5N 118.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving westnorthwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 11.8N 115.9E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 13.0N 114.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 13.8N 113.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
218. HadesGodWyvern
4:10 AM GMT on December 05, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #76
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
12:00 PM JST December 5 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sulu Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (975 hPa) located at 10.2N 119.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 11.5N 116.4E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
45 HRS: 12.5N 114.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
69 HRS: 12.9N 113.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
217. HadesGodWyvern
3:25 AM GMT on December 05, 2012
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #12
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
11:00 AM PhST December 5 2012
==============================

Typhoon "PABLO" has slowed down and weakened slightly and is now over northern Palawan.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Pablo [976 hPa] located at 10.7°N 119.4°E or 120 km northeast of Puerto Princesa City has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots gusting up to 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #3
-----------

Luzon Region
-----------
1. Northern Palawan
2. Calamian Grp. of Islands

Signal Warning #2
-----------

Luzon Region
-----------
1. Rest of Palawan

Visayas Region
---------------
1. Rest of Palawan

Signal Warning #1
----------

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Orriental Mindoro
2. Occidental Mindoro
3. Lubang Is.

Visayas Region
=============
1. Antique

Additional Information
========================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-18 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #3 and signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this typhoon.

Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of Luzon and Western Visayas.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 pm today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
216. HadesGodWyvern
12:48 AM GMT on December 05, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #75
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
9:00 AM JST December 5 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sulu Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (975 hPa) located at 9.8N 119.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 11.5N 116.7E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 12.5N 114.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 12.9N 113.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
215. HadesGodWyvern
10:23 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
5:00 AM PhST December 5 2012
==============================

Typhoon "PABLO" has further weakened as it continues to move towards northern Palawan

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Pablo [972 hPa] located at 10.2°N 120.4°E or 180 km east of Puerto Princesa City has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots gusting up to 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #3
-----------

Luzon Region
-----------
1. Northern Palawan
2. Calamian Grp. of Islands

Signal Warning #2
-----------

Luzon Region
-----------
1. Rest of Palawan

Visayas Region
-------------
1. Antique
2. Iloilo
3. Guimaras
4. Bohol
5. Siquijor
6. Southern Cebu
7. Negros Oriental
8. Negros Occidental

Signal Warning #1
----------

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Occidental Mindoro
2. Lubang Is.
3. Oriental Mindoro
4. Romblon

Visayas Region
=============
1. Aklan
2. Capiz
3. Rest of Cebu

Mindanao Region
================
1. Lanao del Norte
2. Misamis Occidental
3. Zamboanga del Norte
4. Camiguin

Additional Information
========================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-18 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #3 and signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this typhoon.

Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 am today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
214. HadesGodWyvern
10:19 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #74
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
6:00 AM JST December 5 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sulu Sea

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (975 hPa) located at 9.8N 120.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 11.7N 117.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
45 HRS: 12.8N 115.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
69 HRS: 13.2N 113.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
213. HadesGodWyvern
6:48 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #73
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
3:00 AM JST December 5 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sulu Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (975 hPa) located at 9.8N 120.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 18 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 11.9N 117.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 12.8N 115.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 13.2N 113.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
212. HadesGodWyvern
6:32 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #10
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
11:00 PM PhST December 4 2012
==============================

Typhoon "PABLO" continues to weaken as it moves toward Northern Palawan

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Pablo [958 hPa] located at 9.9°N 121.4°E or 145 km southwest of Iloilo City has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots gusting up to 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #3
-----------

Luzon Region
-----------
1. Northern Palawan including Calamian Grp. Of Islands

Visayas Region
----------------
1. Antique
2. Iloilo
3. Guimaras
4. Bohol
5. Siquijor
6. Southern Cebu
7. Negros Oriental
8. Negros Occidental

Signal Warning #2
-----------

Luzon Region
-----------
1. Rest of Palawan

Visayas Region
-------------
1. Aklan
2. Capiz
3. Rest of Cebu

Mindanao Region
----------------
1. Lanao del Norte
2. Misamis Occidental
3. Zamboanga del Norte
4. Camiguin

Signal Warning #1
----------

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Is.
2. Oriental Mindoro
3. Romblon

Visayas Region
=============
1. Leyte incl. Biliran
2. Southern Leyte
3. Camotes Is.

Mindanao Region
================
1. Zamboanga del Sur including Sibugay
2. Surigao del Norte
3. Surigao del Sur
4. Dinagat
5. Agusan del Sur
6. Agusan del Norte
7. Bukidnon
8. Misamis Oriental
9. Lanao del Sur

Additional Information
========================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere is now lowered.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-18 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signals #3 and signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this typhoon.

Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 am tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754
211. HadesGodWyvern
6:26 PM GMT on December 04, 2012
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
17:30 PM RET December 4 2012
================================

The low level circulation center is located near 8.7S 85.6E at 1000 AM UTC, exposed East of the main
convective activity. A burst of convection is developing close to the center since 0800 AM UTC.
mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1001 hPa, maximum winds at 20-25 knots near the center, locally 30 knots far from the center northward in the monsoon flow and southward due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressure. The low level circulation center is moving southward at about 10 knots and it has accelerated during the past 6 hours.

Lower levels environmental conditions are favorable, system being well supplied on both faces, equatorward and poleward. Energetic oceanic content is favorable too. In the upper levels, the diffluent Easterly wind shear is still strong (30-40 knots according to CIMSS data), system being located north of an upper tropospheric ridge.

On and after tonight, system may track south-westward according to the available numerical weather prediction models. The easterly upper level wind shear is forecast to remain moderate to strong until Thursday, and should weaken sharply beyond. However, during the next 48 hours, system should deepen progressively with the lowering of the relative wind shear when the system will track westward. It should intensify more rapidly beyond Thursday.

No other suspect area over the basin.

For the next 24 hours, potential for the development of a tropical depression is good.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45754

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